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Daily Fantasy Golf

Insight Sheet: Tour Championship

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock with all of your DFS PGA needs. For the Tour Championship I’ve decided to combine my two articles into one. With only 30 golfers available to choose from, I wanted all the important information in one place.

We’ll go over the basics of the course, what the key stats exactly mean and some strategy into building lineups. As always the players listed in the chart and throughout the article will be priced with DraftKings salaries. With that said, the chart represents an overall feel for the golfers and should be used as a template for all DFS sites.

The Basics

Course: East Lake Golf Course, Atlanta, GA
Par: 70
Length: 7,346 yards
Fairways: Narrower than tour average (25 -30 yards)
Greens: Bermuda, Average size, Fast (12.5 Stimp)
Architect: Donald Ross/Rees Jones
For a hole by hole breakdown of the Tour Championship please visit the PGA website here!

Scorecard

East Lake's Scorecard

With any Par 70 course, you’ll want to look at golfers who score well without needing the long Par 5 to do so. Paul Casey comes to mind and I fully expect him to be “highly” owned. As you can see there isn’t a lot of opportunity to score outside of a few holes. Besides the Par 5s, there are two short Par 4s that typically play below par. Would recommend looking at golfers who do well between 350 – 400 yards for the Tour Championship.

As you’ll see below in the chart I still included Birdie or Better as a key stat. Despite the lack of chances to score birdies, I want golfers who find a way, when other settle for pars.

With the new format for 2019, players are getting strokes to start the tournament. This new wrinkle certainly offers up some interesting challenges. Thomas will be starting at -10 and while the bottom of the tier guys can still score us points, only a handful of guys can be expected to win. Will discuss into more depth on this aspect later on.

Model and Key Stats

Model's Top 30 with Key Stats

Key Stats

Course/Recent Stats Overall – The final ranking of the golfer’s ability to perform well at East Lake.

Projected Ownership – With only 30 golfers available to choose from, ownership across the board will be much higher than normal. Any golfer that comes in at 15% or below will be considered “low” owned this week.

Fairways Gained/Approaches – Was looking at golfers who landed in the fairway more often than not. From there, it combined players who have a strong approach (iron game).

Good Drives/GIR – This stat looks at golfers who consistently get the ball on the green in regulation, whether from the fairway or the rough. With the smaller fairways and lower scoring, I felt these stats were crucial to winning.

BOB/ Bogey Avoidance – This is where the tournament is won or lost. Golfers need to be able to avoid bogeys and drain birdies when given the chance.

Opportunity Gained/ DK Points – Depending how the above scenarios go for our golfers, it translates into DK Points. With the opportunity score baked in, it helps illustrate which golfers give themselves a better chance to perform well at East Lake.

Strategy

With the new structured stroke play, as I mentioned before, only a handful of guys should be able to win. The list in my mind includes

Justin Thomas -10 (Starting Strokes)
Patrick Cantlay -8
Brooks Koepka -7
Rory McIlroy -5
Jon Rahm -4
Webb Simpson -4
Xander Schauffele -4

I’m personally only running six lineups this week for the Tour Championship. This is always the case with no cut events, but this week it’s certainly the way to go, with such a small player pool. There is a decent chance that pots get split this week.

Because of this I want at least two players from the above list in my lineups. This will give you two shots at having the correct golfer to win the tournament legitimately. Your only real chance to differentiate yourself, will be with the bottom two golfers.

In regard to Thomas, I’m personally playing him in half of my lineups. With a projected ownership of 22% that should give me twice the leverage on the field. Thomas is easier to fit him on FanDuel lineups, where the pricing is always softer.

Tournament Selection – Single Entry, GPP only. Three or five max is fine as well. If you feel like burning money like myself, I will be taking my SE lineup and throwing them into the $44 Club Twirl ($100K to 1st) and the $5 Drive the Green ($200K to 1st).

Personal Core

Jon Rahm $9,900 – Rahm is in 100% of my lineups. He comes in fourth in my model with some of the top marks across the board. He might end up being the highest owned golfer across the industry but that’s fine. He’s the lowest of the top golfers that I feel could win the Tour Championship and he gives you plenty of salary savings.

Corey Conners $6,100 – Conners is a tremendous ball striker. While he’s been playing really well lately, he scores very well on this kind of course. While I don’t expect Conners to hoist the trophy I feel he can perform very well at East Lake and be a great pivot off of Sungjae Im. He will also be in everyone of my six lineups.

Jason Kokrak $5,300 – Kokrak comes in fifth in my overall model and will be a solid pivot off of Lucas Glover. A good long iron player who can put up points in bunches. He only needs his putter to get hot or better yet, stick the ball only a few inches away. At $5,300 and hopefully lower ownership, I’ll take my shot. Kokrak is in five of six of my lineups.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Tour Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

Stat source: FantasyNational

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