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Julio Teheran

There was a 15 game slate on Tuesday, June 18th. After a few delays we were able to get in 14 of those with the exception being the Phillies and Nationals game. The Mets had some huge scoring performances and there were also a few big names who did not perform up to their lofty standards. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings.

Winners

Pete Alonso ($4,900)

Alonso and the Mets were the team you wanted to back in fantasy on Tuesday. They beat the Braves 10-2 on the road and had three huge fantasy performances, starting with Alonso. Alonso went 4-for-4 with a home run and two doubles. He finished the game with three RBI, three runs scored, and walked twice. That all added up to 39 fantasy points. Alonso has been a beast in his rookie campaign and has now hit 24 home runs and has 57 RBI. He has a batting average of .274 to go with his impressive OPS of .982. He extended his hitting streak to seven games.

Alonso’s Outlook

Pete Alonso and the Mets have one more game in Atlanta before heading to Chicago for a four game series with the Cubs. They will face off against Max Fried Wednesday. Fried has decent numbers on the year but he has not pitched well lately. He has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Over his last four starts, though, he has given up 17 earned runs on 17 hits while pitching just 20.1 innings. He has also given up 10 home runs to righties this year and they have a batting average of .281 against him. This looks like a great spot to fire up Alonso again after his huge game Tuesday.

Jacob deGrom ($10,300)

He got the win as he went 8.1 innings while giving up two earned runs on five hits. Both of these runs came on solo home runs in the ninth inning. He scored 35.15 fantasy points. deGrom has been a really good fantasy pitcher this year and his strikeout numbers are in great shape. deGrom has a K/9 that is north of 11 to go with his ERA/WHIP of 3.26/1.08. He has been really good in his last three, striking out 28 over 21.1 innings and giving up only six hits.

deGrom’s Outlook

deGrom’s next projected start will come on Sunday, June 23 in Chicago against the Cubs. The Cubs offense has been just adequate lately and averages 4.6 runs per game in the month of June. Over that same time span they rank 23rd in team batting average, hitting only .237. They are also below league average at home this year, ranking 17th. The positive outlook doesn’t stop there either as they rank 14th in team batting average in day games. Chicago’s strikeout numbers are also up as they rank 10th in the league in the month of June. All of these stats point to deGrom being considered for the top pitcher spot against the Cubs Sunday.

Whit Merrifield ($4,800)

Merrifield and the Royals won in dominating fashion on Tuesday. Merrifield went 3-for-4 and hit two home runs. He ended up with six RBI and three runs scored. He scored 41 fantasy points. This now brings Merrifield’s season batting average to .306 and his OPS is at .862. He has hit 10 home runs and has 39 RBI. He has also added 11 stolen bases.

Merrifield’s Outlook

The Royals have one more game in Seattle before heading back home to face the Twins for four games. Wednesday starter Marco Gonzales has been inconsistent this year and Merrifield has the platoon advantage in this matchup. In Gonzales’ last four starts, he has given up earned runs of one, two, six and 10 and hit numbers of two, two, 10 and eight. The Royals have been one of the worst teams in the league but have found offense lately, scoring 23 runs in their last three games. Expect Merrifield to keep it going against Gonzales and the Mariners Wednesday.

Losers

Julio Teheran ($9,500)

You have already read about the Mets winning big Tuesday and that means that the Braves starter, Teheran, got roughed up early. Teheran was only able to get through four innings and gave up six earned runs. The Mets got to him for eight hits, three walks, and one home run. He did strike out three over his 83 pitches. This netted him -3.6 fantasy points. Teheran fell to 5-5 after the loss and his ERA rose to 3.40. His WHIP also grew to 1.26. His K/9 is at 8.14.

Teheran’s Outlook

Teheran has been a dominant pitcher lately and gave up more earned runs Tuesday than he had over his last eight starts combined. That covered 44.2 innings. The only issue with Teheran in that span is that he does not control his pitch count well and didn’t get past six innings in any of those. Those numbers, though, add up to a bounce-back opportunity for him in his next start against the Cubs at Wrigley on Monday, June 24th. I already went into detail on the Cubs struggles lately and nearly all of those stats from above can be copied and pasted here against Teheran. Look for him to bounce back against the scuffling Cubs offense.

Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200)

Giancarlo Stanton made his highly anticipated return to action Tuesday and disappointed in a big way. He went 0-for-4 with two ugly strikeouts. He didn’t hit the ball hard in any of his at bats and did not look comfortable in the box. This was Stanton’s first action since May.

Stanton’s Outlook

Stanton has come off a long layoff and had mixed results in rehab. He hit .286 overall but went only 1-for-11 in Triple-A. Five of Stanton’s six hits in the minors went for home runs. This has been his all-or-nothing style that we have grown to know. Stanton should get back to hitting home runs but I am giving the rust plenty of time to go away before I pay a premium price on him.

Injury Report

Mike Moustakas left Tuesday’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch. He should have some X-rays to make sure there are no breaks.

Max Scherzer broke his nose after fouling a bunt off of his face in practice Tuesday.

Justin Smoak (quad) and Edwin Jackson (back) are both headed to the 10-day IL for the Blue Jays.

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Updated 6:50 pm EST

Players in advantageous spots in the order:

  • Cavan Biggio (Clean up)
  • Christian Stewart (Clean up)
  • Travis D’Arnaud (Lead off)
  • Kevan Smith (Seventh)
  • Adam Jones (Clean up)
  • Renato Nunez (Clean up)

Updated 6:26 pm EST

I actually do like Julio Teheran tonight against the Mets in Atlanta. Teheran typically shows up against the Mets as he has maintained them to a .198 BA with 24 strike outs in 107 at-bats. Teheran comes into this game pitching nicely with a .53 ERA in the month of June and Mets are striking out more as of late with low team batting averages. Teheran is going to be my pitching play tonight despite Vegas favoring the Mets at -110 with a 9 under/over.

I”m guessing that I am not the only one questioning their pitching tonight. I just wanted to include a list of the teams who have struck out the most over the last week. Which one to target? Not sure yet. But at the moment San Diego looks like an appealing team to target with Milwaukee Brandon Woodruff. The Padres are struggling at home with a .224 home team BA and a 29 % K rate against righties.

Updated 5:40 pm EST

Now Chicago. This is really my favorite stack of the night. Chicago carries upside, BvP advantages, reasonable salaries as well as a solid hitting environment on a nice 72 degree night in Chicago. Nova has been pretty bad as of late. He’s leaving too many off speed pitches out over the plate and against a veteran team like Chicago, they will make him pay. The left-handed bats on Chicago specifically have the most impressive stats as Nova owns a .349 allowed BA to opposing lefties with eight home runs this season. Nova owns a 6.55 ERA over his last two and a 7.38 ERA in night games this season. On DraftKings this is a five man stack for sure but on FanDuel which four Cubs to select is one of my most difficult decisions of the night. Baez, Rizzo, Schwarber and Gonzlalez make the cut for me.

Updated 5:30 pm EST

Okay, I have some strong opinions tonight on the Oakland A’s and Chicago Cubs. What are my opinions you ask? Stack these team and do it with confidence. Let’s start with Oakland. The A’s face Gabriel Ynoa and Baltimore’s horrific bullpen. The only question to ask yourself when targeting Baltimore this season is, “When will my players see the bullpen?” Ynoa has a 5.74 road ERA over five games played. Ynoa is also exhibiting some major reverse splits as right-handed batters are hitting .304 against Ynoa with four homers in 76 at-bats. Ynoa has struggled lately with a 4.88 ERA over the month of June. After a great April, Ynoa has been declining ever since, I expected him to continue this trend tonight and let the horrible Oriole bullpen take over…which is when the real fun begins!

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It’s a decent sized schedule for a Thursday with 11 games scheduled. Games in BAL, NYY and BOS have some risk of rain but do not look like PPD threats.

Upper-Tier Arms

Jacob deGrom, Cardinals at Mets ($10,200 FD, $10,400 DK): The Cardinals can be beaten by righties and there are not many better righties in the game than the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. Though the Cardinals do not strike out too much against righties (21st in the league at 22.5%) they do not have much pop either (ISO is 26th at .157). While the perception lingers that deGrom is hurt or is just in the middle of a bad year, we are seeing signs that he might be rediscovering his Cy Young form as he has been very good lately. A 2.72 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in his last eight starts backs the theory that he is rounding into 2018 form. In his career, deGrom is 4-2 with a 4.21 ERA against the Cardinals. He is a GPP-only option for me since we have better price options below.

Clayton Kershaw, Cubs at Dodgers ($10,400 FD, $10,100 DK): A theory of mine is that bats of a team leaving Coors have a “hangover” affect. The ball simply does not move the same at Coors than it does in other locations. Well, we get the Cubbies in this spot facing one of the best lefties in the game. For the season, the Cubs strike out the 12th most frequently against lefties at 24.9% and they walk the most frequently at 11.2%. Luckily, Kershaw is one of the stingiest pitchers in the game when it comes to issuing free passes, with only one walk allowed every 6.2 innings pitched. Kershaw has been very effective as of late, even if he is coming off a tough luck loss the arch-rival Giants. The middle-tier arm will likely be my cash option so I will save Kershaw for GPPs.

Matthew Boyd, Tigers at Royals ($10,500 FD, $10,700 DK): The Royals are just not hitting the ball well right now. Over the last seven days, they are striking out the second most frequently at 28.2%, their ISO is 25th at .126, their wOBA is 27th at .265. and their hard hit rate is an ugly 32.1%, good for 28th. Boyd starred in nearby Omaha for Oregon State in the College World Series in 2013, tossing a four-hit, 11-strikeout shutout of Indiana in a 1-0 win. He has had success against this Kansas City team this season, striking out nine Royals over seven innings of two-run ball in a May 3 victory. He is a possible cash game option but I like the guy below better.

Middle Tier Arm

Julio Teheran, Pirates at Braves ($8,600 FD, $10,800 DK): Not only has Teheran been tremendously effective over the last month plus, he gets to pitch at home where is much more effective (3.65 road ERA compared to 1.93 ERA home ERA). Since May 5, he has the second-lowest ERA in all of baseball at 0.70. During that span, Teheran has given up one earned run or fewer in each of seven starts. If I want to spend up for bats, he is likely my primary cash game pitcher but obviously only on FD.

See what our projection tools are saying about these arms here.

Bargain Basement Arm

Gabriel Ynoa, Blue Jays at Orioles ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK): Ynoa has gone from a long reliever/spot starter to a member of the Orioles rotation, starting the last three turns in place of Dan Straily. Ynoa went six innings is his last start in an extra-innings loss to Houston. The six innings was his longest outing since 2017. Over the last seven days, the Blue Jays strike out the 12th most frequently in MLB, at 24.4%. GPP-only because we do not fully know whqat to expect.

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