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Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Patriots at Bills

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Damien Harris (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (FD $10,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Play: Devin Singletary (FD $8,000, DK $6,900)

DK Value Play #2: Nelson Agholor (FD $7,000, DK $4,500)

Josh Allen is the clear chalk and it’s not very close, as his overall ownership could be near 90% this week. I like Stefon Diggs as the main pivot because he’s got the ability to score a ton of points over two drives, as we’ve seen him do to salvage fantasy performances in the past. Mac Jones is an interesting contrarian play because we could easily see him pay off the price if he can keep up with Allen, and with the Bills missing Tre’Davious White.

Patriots notes: I like both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson but understand it’s tough for them to both eat, so I’ll deal with that by using both in 1/10 GPPs and alternating each in eight of the other builds, with just one without either. The price has come up a bit on Kendrick Bourne but he is a playmaker, along with Nelson Agholor, who could flash some serious game-changing value in lineups tonight if he can haul in some a red zone targets. The Bills are favored in this game but the Patriots have the kind of team that could bury them early if the offense gets off to a slow start. The Patriots DST could be as good or better than the Bills DST, so I’ll try to find room for one or two builds for each because turnovers could play a pivotal role. Hunter Henry is the best value play other than Agholor. Jakobi Meyers is a little out of my price range.

Bills notes: I’ll start off by saying I love the value on Devin Singletary tonight, but only if Zack Moss gets scratched again. IK like what Matt Breida has ben doing but he’s way overpriced for that low of an upside in this game. And let’s be honest, we just saw an RB duo put up big numbers against the Pats. I like the price on Dawson Knox as well, because he has two-TD upside. The WRS to own shouldn’t get to nuts outside of Diggs and Cole Beasley, though I’m partial to using Gabriel Davis considering the physical presence of an athlete him in the red zone. Tyler Bass, and his counterpart on the Pats, seem to be in play this week as well, since they both get so many attempts. The Pats attempt the most, and the Bills attempt the ninth most.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Patriots running game. It’s a timeshare but both get meaningful carries and the Bills unit, while tough against the run, hasn’t faced a bruising unit like these two underrated backs in a while.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 13 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Stefon Diggs
  3. Mac Jones
  4. Damien Harris
  5. Dawson Knox
  6. Cole Beasley
  7. Rhamondre Stevenson
  8. Devin Singletary
  9. Matt Breida
  10. Kendrick Bourne
  11. Hunter Henry
  12. Jakobi Meyers
  13. Tyler Bass
  14. Nelson Agholor
  15. Bills DST
  16. Patriots DST
  17. Nick Folk (questionable)
  18. Brandon Bolden (questionable)
  19. Emmanuel Sanders
  20. Gabriel Davis
  21. Jonnu Smith
  22. N’Keal Harry
  23. Zack Moss (if active)
  24. Tommy Sweeney
  25. Devin Asiasi
  26. Isaiah McKenzie

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

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Week 12 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bills at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown marks game three today, and we’ve got the picks to help you win in the Week 12 NFL DFS showdown contests on Thanksgiving night!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week 12 NFL DFS is already underway, but tonight’s showdown should be fun!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $13,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot #2: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $10,000, DK $8,700)

Contrarian #1: Cole Beasley (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Bills DST (DK $4,500)

We have the opportunity to shoot for the moon in this contest by picking a couple Saints with TD and PPR potential and using either obvious chalk Josh Allen or something as crazy as the Bills DST at captain. If we use the Bills DST, we only need one Saints player in what could be a really interesting contrarian build that leaves a bunch of money on the table. Either way, the options are wide open with how well Allen spreads it around and the Saints injury issues (Alvin Kamara is OUT & Mark Ingram is on the wrong side of questionable with knee swelling).

Bills notes: It’s hard to assess if any of the Bills RBs (Zach Moss, Devin Singletary and the recently relevant Matt Breida), but we know we’ll have Allen and Stefon Diggs contributing on offense. Throw in a few shares of the other capable receivers, including WRs Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis and TE Dawson Knox, and we’ve got a truly wide open range of possibilities. Kicker Tyler Bass remains one of the best and most productive legs in the league, so I’ll be using him in a few builds as well — especially in the ones with Allen at captain. My FLEX priorities are Diggs, Knox, Beasley and Moss.

Saints notes: If Ingram sits, rookie Tony Jones will be a free square at just $600 on DK, and his pass-catching abilities ensure he’ll be a part of the game plan even if Ingram suits up. We could also see some of special-teamer Dwayne Washington, Alex Armah and Ty Montgomery in the RB role if ingram is out. We’ve also got a conundrum at QB, where Trevor Siemian has been ineffective the past few weeks, leading to speculation that gadget play specialist Taysom Hill could see more snaps under center. In any event, it’s not that hard to fit Siemian and Jones, and it’s even easir to fit Hill and Jones. The WRs I like include red zone talent Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, though we could see some plays form the shaky TE conglomerate (Juwan Johnson is probably the best option) in the wake of the MCL injury to Adam Trautman.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives. The Ingram news is crucial, so stay tuned.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Stefon Diggs
  3. Tony Jones
  4. Dawson Knox
  5. Trevor Siemian
  6. Cole Beasley
  7. Zach Moss
  8. Tre’Quan Smith
  9. Bills DST
  10. Emmanuel Sanders
  11. Devin Singletary
  12. Tyler Bass
  13. Marquez Callaway
  14. Taysom Hill
  15. Deonte Harris
  16. Matt Breida
  17. Gabriel Davis
  18. Juwan Johnson
  19. Brett Maher
  20. Saints DST
  21. Alex Armah
  22. Ty Montgomery

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 12 action!

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Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NFL Plays – Thanksgiving

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Claim Offer

Today we have a solid slate of football.  As is tradition, we have a 3 game thanksgiving slate.  The darling of the day appears to be the Dallas/Las Vegas game as it has a 51 projected total. Below you’ll find my top picks on MKF.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Josh Allen vs. New Orleans – 265.5 Yards

Saints have shown the propensity to give up some big games this season as they’ve given up over 265 yards passing 5 times this season.  When doing my research for this, I automatically threw out their last game against the Eagles as they only gave up 147 yards but that was against a team that runs a 70/30 run/pass split.  

Bills are in must win mode now.  They’re a half game back of the Patriots and can’t afford to lose this game.  If they are going to win, they need a vintage game from Josh Allen.  You know, one of those 300+ passing games with multiple touchdowns.  Allen has gotten to the 266 yard mark a handful of times this season and he does it again today.

Derek Carr vs. Dallas Cowboys – 260.5 Yards

If you would have asked me if Carr could get to this number earlier in the season it would have been an easy yes for me.  Over the first 5 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up more than 290 yards passing in each game.  However, over the last few weeks they’ve tightened things up a bit.  The most they’ve given up over their past 5 games is 260 yards which was last week against Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Carr himself has hit this number 70% of the time this season.  Most recently in week 10 against the Chiefs.  I personally think this is going to be a tough matchup for Carr today and he struggles in the air.  The Cowboys are going to be extra motivated to play today after a tough loss this past weekend.  I’m going w/ the under on this one. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Josh Allen vs. Derek Carr (+5.5 yards)

I’ve already highlighted the two of these guys in the More or Less section.  Even with the extra 5.5 yards Allen should have a better game than Carr today.  I’m choosing Allen over Carr.

Stefon Diggs vs. Darren Waller (+11.5 yards)

With my expectation that Allen has a great game today comes the expectation that Diggs follows suit.  Diggs is Allen’s main target. Over the past 4 weeks Diggs has been targeted on average more than 9 times per game. 

During that stretch he also has a game of 162 yards.  While I don’t think he gets to 162 yards today, I do expect him to get over the century mark.  On the defensive side, the Saints have really squeezed receivers of late. In the last 6 weeks they’ve allowed more than 190 yards receiving to wide receivers only once.  

Switching over to Waller he is essentially the Raiders offense.  When he’s in the lineup he is the main target for Derek Carr.  While I don’t think that Carr has a great day, I do think that Carr does enough with Waller for him to be a top offensive star on the day.  We’ve seen Carr have subpar games but for Waller to do well in those. 

Last week is a prime example.  Carr only threw for 215 yards last week against the Bengals.  116 yards of those yards went to Waller.  Cowboys have given up some big yardage games to tight ends this season and they should do it again today.  My pick here is Waller, especially given the extra 11.5 yards.  

Good luck and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 11 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Darnell Mooney is slowly becoming the guy in Chicago.  For the first time this season Mooney saw double digit targets.  Mooney’s 16 targets led all wide receivers in week 11.  While he had a ton of targets yesterday, if it wasn’t for his 60 yard touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter we’d be talking about a very different day for him.  The Mooney show gets to continue next weekend against a very poor Lions D.  Can he keep up the production?

While Mooney led the show in targets, it was Justin Jefferson who was second to none on Sunday.  Well, receiving wise because it was the Jonathan Taylor show yesterday.  We’ll get to that later.  Jefferson led all receivers with 169 yards receiving yesterday and 2 touchdowns. 

Over the last 2 weeks he now has over 300 yards receiving.  The man is on a mission.  Next week he gets to see if he can continue the insane momentum against a suspect 49ers secondary.

Any other Sunday we’d be talking about Elijah Moore as the top receiver.  He caught 8 balls off of 11 targets and finished with 141 yards receiving and 1 touchdown.  His targets, catches, and yards were all season highs.  He now has touchdowns in 3 straight and is really coming into his own in his rookie season. 

Running Back Targets

The “Sometimes life isn’t fair” award goes to Dontrell Hilliard.  Up until this week Hilliard had been living on the practice squad.  Thanks to a concussed McNichols, Hilliard was thrust into action this week.  He led all backs in targets with 10.  He will most likely go back to the practice squad next week when McNichols is back

With Alvin Kamara missing a second straight game this weekend the New Orleans Saints turned to their old friend in Mark Ingram again.  Over the last two weeks Ingram has been targeted 15 times and has caught 10 of the passes for 86 yards.  While he wasn’t as effective as he was last week, he still had over 100 all purpose yards.   

It took until week 11, but Christian McCaffrey finally has his first receiving touchdown.  McCaffrey was targeted 8 times this weekend and finished with 7 receptions, 60 yards, and 1 touchdown.  He now has 18 targets over the last 2 weeks and 17 receptions.  He’s back folks.

Tight End Targets

Darren Waller was a popular choice at tight end this weekend and he did not disappoint.  He was the only tight end this weekend to hit the century mark.  Waller finished with 116 yards on 8 targets and 7 receptions.  This was the first time that Waller had reached the 100 yard mark since week 1 against the Ravens.  He’ll face a Cowboys team in week 12 that essentially kept Kelce in check last night.

This was the type of game the Cardinals were hoping for when they traded for Zach Ertz.  Ertz had his best game of the year on Sunday.  He finished with 88 yards receiving and found the end zone twice.  It was his first multi touchdown game of the season and his 88 yards were also a season best. 

Quarterback Target Share

Derek Carr had a clear plan this weekend and that was to avoid passing to his wide receivers.  His two top targets this weekend were Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs.  Of his 25 passes, 15 went to those two.  Only 6 pass attempts went to his wide receivers this weekend.

On the opposite side of that story we had Trevor Lawrence.  Lawrence threw more than 80% of his 24 passes to his team of wide receivers.  It was all pretty spread out as he threw to 6 different wide receivers on Sunday.  No receiver had more than 6 targets and 4 had at least 3 targets.  

Running Back Touches

I’m just going to name this the Jonathan Taylor section because Taylor just continues to ball out.  Taylor finished Sunday with just insane stat line.  He had 32 carries for 185 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns.  To top it off he also had 3 receptions for 19 yards and a receiving touchdown. 

All in all he had over 200 all purpose yards and 5 touchdowns.  He was the Indianapolis Colts offense yesterday.  This is now 8 straight weeks with at least 1 touchdown for Taylor.  During that span he’s also had 4 multi-touchdown games. 

Nick Chubb returned from a bout with Covid to have a monster game.  He finished with 130 rushing yards on 22 carries.  While he didn’t find the end zone on the ground, he did have a touchdown reception.  This was his first reception for a touchdown all year.  He’ll look to continue his roll in an important divisional match up against the Ravens next weekend. 

Joe Mixon had his first 100 yard rushing game since week 1.  If it wasn’t for a guy named Taylor, we’d be talking about Mixon as the top back in week 11.  Mixon matched a season high with 2 rushing touchdowns.  The only negative for Mixon this weekend was that it was his only the second time this year where he wasn’t targeted at all.  I guess who needs targets when you rush for 123 yards right?

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.  In what should come as a surprise to no one, Philly ran almost 70% run plays this weekend.  Of the 73 plays that the Eagles called on Sunday, 50 were runs.  Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Howard all had double digit rushes. 

Buffalo was behind from the start of the game and all game long thanks to Jonathan Taylor.  Josh Allen threw the ball 39 times compared to just 13 runs for his team.  His 209 yards passing were the lowest he’s had since week 2 against the Dolphins.  Allen and the Dolphins will look to get back on track against the Saints on Thanksgiving. 

Inside Look Wrap Up

We had some monster individual performances this weekend.  12 different players had over 100 yards receiving and 4 running backs had over 100 yards rushing.  Taylor had 5 touchdowns in what will be a performance that many people will be comparing to Al Bundy’s 4 touchdown performance for Polk High.  We also saw some people struggle this weekend.  Dak Prescott did his best Mitch Trubinsky impression this weekend in a game he was supposed to do extremely well.  

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

The clear chalk on tonight’s showdown is Josh Allen, who started off slowly the first two weeks but has picked up the pace and is putting up numbers similar to his 2020 breakout campaign — averaging around 33 DK points over his last three weeks. While the standard pivot will be Titans RB Derrick Henry, the stud tailback will have a tough matchup against a stout Bills run defense that ranks fist in the league against fantasy RBs. There’s no standout bargain option under $10K at captain unless we consider a risky Julio Jones or the kicker/defense route.

Bills notes: I’m most interested in the productive trio of Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox and RB Zack Moss, but both Emmanuel Sanders and Devin Singletary are in play for the Bills this week as well — as Allen has done a great job the past two seasons of spreading the ball around to many different skill positions and options. We could see monster games from both Diggs and Sanders, as the Titans defense doesn’t have anyone to keep with either of their route running skills and speed/separation abilities. Slot maven Cole Beasley has ben relatively quiet thus far in 2021, but he could have a breakout at any moment.

Titans notes: The best move is to probably fade Henry in most builds and count on a negative game script for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing game, working in shares of Jones, TE Anthony Firkser and stud WR A.J. Brown, who is questionable with an illness but is expected to be available. Aside from that, we have the disappointing but potent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a questionable Chester Rogers (groin) and an uncertain backfield after Henry, who could log more receptions than usual this week but will have a tough time returning value at that salary.

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Titans DST, who will have its hands full with this Bills juggernaut offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Westbrook-Ikhine and Beasley.

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Ryan Tannehill
  3. Stefon Diggs
  4. Zack Moss
  5. Emmanuel Sanders
  6. A.J. Brown
  7. Derrick Henry
  8. Julio Jones
  9. Dawson Knox
  10. Anthony Firkser
  11. Bills DST
  12. Devin Singletary
  13. Tyler Bass
  14. Randy Bullock
  15. Cole Beasley
  16. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  17. Gabriel Davis
  18. Chester Rogers
  19. MyCole Pruitt
  20. Titans DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

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Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – AFC Trading Cards

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.

Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

First Round Bye

Kansas City Chiefs

Cash – Patrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.

GPP – Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.

Punt – Travis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.

Wild Card games

The Best: Bills, Ravens, Titans

Buffalo Bills

Cash – Josh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.

GPP – Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.

Punt – Gabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.

Some of the Gabriel Davis cards I’ve collected this past year. He’s a physically gifted receiver in a good spot for production in Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens

Cash – Lamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.

GPP – J.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.

Punt – Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.

Tennessee Titans

Cash – Derrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.

GPP – Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!

Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.

I’ve had this card since I pulled the redemption card in a 2017 Panini Phoenix hobby box that yielded terrible autos — but one awesome Rookie Rising parallel of Patrick Mahomes #d/49 that I sold raw (like a chump) a couple of years ago. If I only knew how high his cards would go in the ensuing two years…

The Rest: Colts, Browns, Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).

GPP – Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.

Punt – Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.

Cleveland Browns

Cash – Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.

GPP – Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.

This 1/1 NFL Shield card of Chubb is for sale on eBay.

Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.

GPP – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.

Punt – Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!

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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Patriots

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (DK $16,500, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Cam Newton (DK $13,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

FD/DK Value: James White (DK $6,200 FLEX, FD $8,500), John Brown (DK $2,800 FLEX, FD $5,000)

DK Punt: Isaiah McKenzie (DK $800 FLEX)

One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.

If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals.

Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.

UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.

I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.

On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.

Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.

Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.

DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Stefon Diggs
  3. Cole Beasley
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Devin Singletary
  6. Jakobi Meyers
  7. Damien Harris (ankle, GTD)
  8. Zack Moss
  9. James White
  10. Gabriel Davis
  11. Bills DST
  12. Dawson Knox
  13. Damiere Byrd
  14. Sony Michel (if Harris inactive)
  15. Tyler Bass
  16. N’Keal Harry
  17. Nick Folk
  18. Isaiah McKenzie
  19. Pats DST
  20. Dalton Keene
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