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Joe Burrow

FanDuel Super Bowl Showdown: Bengals vs. Rams

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the FanDuel contests, rules and pricing.

Let’s get to the game!

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences on the MVP slot on FanDuel: FD doesn’t assess a salary penalty but still bumps the points scored to 1.5x – a crucial factor in who we choose since the chalkiest player is that much more chalky on FD.

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Odell Beckham, Jr. (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #3: Joe Mixon (FD $12,500)

FanDuel Value Play: Kendall Blanton (FD $8,000)

So, in writing a FanDuel-specific column, I certainly want many of the same guys, but we have to take some chances at the top slot, because there’s no penalty. As I said on the DK article, Cooper Kupp is once again the chalk. The NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership on FD as well, thought Matt Stafford is on his heels a lot more with these rules. I like Stafford, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are who I’ll lean to more. I REALLY like going with Ja’Marr Chase as the top guy on FD in at least half of my large-field GPP entries.

As I said, one of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.

Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. As was the case on DK, I’ll be crafting some lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.

Rams notes: RB Cam Akers is a much better value play on DK, so I’m not as interested on FD. Tyler Higbee and Kendall Blanton are the same price on FD, so there’s a direct swap out if Higbee doesn’t suit up or is limited. I’d much rather play Higgins over Odell Beckham Jr. in single-entry GPPs and cash games, but OBJ needs to be considered for large-field GPPs as a leverage play. He’s not as risky as Boyd (my favorite leverage play on DK), and more expensive, but I could see him winning somebody a lot of money as the MVP. We know just how good he can be, and if coverage is overly focused on Kupp, he can hurt this Bengals defense with volume, red zone dominance and the TDs it takes to win on FD.

FD Strategy Notes: The strategy on FD is pretty simple. If you’re looking for leverage on the field, go with Chase or OBJ at MVP and play Burrow with Kupp and some Rams value. For cash games I want to squeeze a QB in the top slot and make sure I have Kupp and one of either Chase or Higgins in there as well.

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates for the big game, the best way (as always) to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Cooper Kupp
Ja’Marr Chase
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Joe Mixon
Tee Higgins
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Higbee (questionable)
Kendall Blanton (direct swap for Higbee if he sits)
Evan McPherson
Cam Akers (questionable)
Matt Gay
C.J. Uzomah (questionable)
Darrell Henderson (questionable)
Sony Michel (higher if Akers or Henderson sits)
Van Jefferson (questionable)
Samaje Perine
Drew Sample
Ben Skowronek
Trent Taylor
Chris Evans
Mike Thomas

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

DraftKings Super Bowl Showdown: Bengals vs. Rams

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the DraftKings contests, rules and pricing.

Let’s get to the game!

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences on the Captain slot on DraftKings: DK bumps both the points scored and salary cost to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on the site. This can sometimes allow us to build more creative stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (DK $17,400)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (DK $15,900)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (DK $16,200)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (DK $11,400)

DK Value Play: Evan McPherson (DK $6,000)

It’s the Cooper Kupp chalk show this week as the NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership as the captain of about 65-70% of projected lineups thus far, but as good as he is, I’d like to start off our discussion with some thoughts on Bengals sophomore QB Joe Burrow.

Burrow suffered grade 3 tears of both his ACL and MCL on November 22, 2020 — Week 11 of his rookie season in a game against the Washington Football Team (now the Commanders). Despite being a few days shy of 15 months after that fateful date, a LOT has changed since then. What looked like a serious roadblock to a promising young QB’s career has melted away. The WFT has a new name. We’re still forging bravely through a difficult time here on Earth, with folks still getting sick and the many challenges of confronting and navigating a pandemic, and Joey B isn’t just recovering and rehabbing from the injury — he’s culminating a brilliant season with a trip to the Super Bowl, replete with a host of dangerous offensive weapons who have a nose for the end zone and the ability to take it to the house on any touch.

I don’t want to take away from the laudable accomplishments of Kupp after a legendary NFL season or Matthew Stafford leading this Rams team to the big game after toiling away in the purgatory of Detroit for so many years, but what Burrow has accomplished this season is otherworldly — the kind of comeback that’s fit for celluloid or the images of a flashing dreamscape.

One of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.

Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. The Bengals DST could be a surprising value as well (despite the matchup), and I’ll be crafting plenty of lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.

Rams notes: The Rams aren’t exactly starved for offensive options in this matchup, but knowing who to play could be a little more difficult to discern given the injury issues surrounding RB Cam Akers and TE Tyler Higbee, as well as the absolutely dynamic play of Odell Beckham Jr. over the past few games. A great addition after losing Robert Woods to a season-ending mid-November practice injury, OBJ took a couple weeks to adjust to the playbook and find his happy place in LA, but promptly racked up 19-236-1 on just 23 targets over the first three weeks of the playoffs. Waiting in the wings to help our builds from a value standpoint are Sony Michel, TE Kendall Blanton (the possible fill-ins for Akers and Higbee, respectively) and even RB Darrell Henderson, Jr., who has a good chance to return from IR to be activated for Super Bowl LVI. The Rams DST has a chance to be part of the narrative as well, but they’ll need to get some pressure on Burrow and do what no other team this playoffs ahs been able to do — shut down the juggernaut passing game and prevent some of the quick scores that have punctuated their wins.

DK Strategy Notes: If we’re willing to fade Kupp, it’s pretty simple to get a nice-looking Bengals stack with Burrow/Chase at CPT/UTIL and another top-flight WR (either Higgins or Boyd) and still get a piece of the Rams offense with OBJ or a value RB. If we decide to play Burrow/Chase and squeeze in Kupp at another UTIL spot, we can still make do with the $4K+ for each of the remaining three slots.

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Cooper Kupp
Joe Burrow
Ja’Marr Chase
Matthew Stafford
Tee Higgins
Joe Mixon
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Higbee (questionable)
C.J. Uzomah (questionable)
Evan McPherson
Cam Akers (questionable)
Matt Gay
Rams DST
Bengals DST
Darrell Henderson (questionable)
Sony Michel (higher if Akers or Henderson sits)
Kendall Blanton (higher if Higbee sits)
Van Jefferson (questionable)
Samaje Perine
Drew Sample
Ben Skowronek
Trent Taylor
Chris Evans
Mike Thomas

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

PrizePicks Picks and Props – Super Bowl Edition – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.

Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).

Claim Offer Here – Promo Code – WINDAILY

We’ve made it folks. After a long, grueling season we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl. We have 2 dynamic offenses going this weekend some of the top players in the league. It should be a game for the ages!

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Super Bowl Picks

Joe Burrow – 270.5 Passing Yards

The kid from LSU just continues to win. So far in the playoffs he’s beaten Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr. Can he make it 4 for 4 and beat Matthew Stafford? If the Bengals have any hope of winning this weekend, it’s going to be on the back, well arm of Joe Burrow. He’s willed the team to victory in more than a handful of games and I think he does it again this weekend.

The Rams, while having a solid secondary, have shown some susceptibility in the playoffs as they gave up over 300 yards to Tom Brady. Burrow has a ton of weapons to throw to and he’ll use them heavily on Sunday night. He’s “balled out” when the Bengals have needed him the most, and they’ll need him Sunday night. I’m siding with the over on the 270.5 passing yards that PrizePicks is giving us.

Matthew Stafford – 278.5 Passing Yards

On the other side of the ball we’ll have a QB in Stafford that will hopefully have two cities rooting for him in Los Angeles and Detroit. Childhood friend and teammate Clayton Kershaw already has a World Series ring. Does Stafford add a Super Bowl ring to the Highland Park High School trophy case? Like the Rams, the Bengals have also given some big numbers in the playoffs.

Derek Carr threw for over 300 in the Wild Card Game and then Mahomes threw for 275 in the Conference Championship. While a tough D, they can give up some yards in a hurry and like Burrow, Stafford has a plethora of weapons. His two main targets are two of the best in the league in Kupp and Beckham. We also can’t forget about Jefferson. I’m going with the over on the number that PrizePicks has set for us.

Joe Mixon – 60.5 Rushing Yards

I love Mixon, I really do. He’s a phenomenal back with tremendous upside. That said, I think he falls just short of his number this week. If the Bengals win this one, it’s going to be through the air and not on the ground. Burrow is at his best when he’s slinging the ball around to guys like Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Mixon has been a huge reason why the Bengals have gotten to this point, I just don’t think he’ll get the run in this one. He falls just short of the 60.5 rushing yards from PrizePicks.

Ja’Marr Chase – 77.5 Receiving Yards

Big game player in his what is his biggest game to date in the NFL. Yes, Jalen Ramsey has already been very vocal about flanking Chase all game. It’s going to be a tough game for Chase and Chase did have a down game against the Chiefs in the conference championship. That said, I just don’t see a scenario where it happens 2 weeks in a row, especially in a game this big.

Some players are born for moments like this one. Chase is that type of player. Since Week 16 vs. the Ravens, Chase has had 4 games over 100 yards receiving. This week it will be 5 games and Chase battles Burrow for Super Bowl MVP. I’m going with the over on this one.

Cooper Kupp – 105.5 Yards

What else is there to say at this point about Cooper Kupp? Including the playoffs, he has just 4 games under 100 receiving yards since week 6. He’s had just an unreal year and he’ll be needed if the Rams have hopes of holding off the feel good Bengals. Kupp, regardless of who’s covering him, continues to find open spaces deep and Stafford always finds a way to find him when he is. Sunday night should be no exceptions. Look for Kupp to have yet another 100 yard game and smash the PrizePicks target.

One other pick and you won’t find this one on PrizePicks. My bet for first song during the halftime show will be Lose Yourself.

Good luck and hope to see some green bars come Sunday night!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

PrizePicks Picks and Props – Conference Championship Edition – Win Daily Sports

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome to the inaugural edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article, we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.

Click here to claim – Promo Code – WINDAILY

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Conference Championship Picks

Joe Burrow – 282.5 Passing Yards

One of the first things I look at when trying to find targetable props on PrizePicks is to see what some of the SportsBooks have these players at. FanDuel currently has a line of 291.5 passing yards for Burrow. We are essentially getting Burrow at a 9 yard discount on PrizePicks today. This 282.5 yard prop is one that Burrow should have no trouble hitting today.

He’s crushed this number 3 out of his last 4 games. Last week vs. Tennessee he went for close to 350 yards. We also saw Josh Allen shred this defense in the fourth quarter. While the addition of Tyrann Mathieu should help Chiefs secondary today, I’m still going to go with the Over on this one as I think this game turns into a shootout similar to last week.

Patrick Mahomes – 283.5 Passing Yards

What can’t Mahomes do at this point? While Mahomes is a special quarterback during the regular season, what he does in the playoffs is on a whole different level. So far in the 2022 playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 404 and 378 passing yards. He’s on a mission and I just don’t see the Bengals secondary being able to slow him down.

Although the Bengals were able to hold Tannehill to just 220 passing yards last weekend, they did give up over 300 yards to Derek Carr the weekend before in the Wild Card game. If Carr can do it, I see no scenario where Mahomes doesn’t. Look for Mahomes to crush his 283.5-yard prop.

Joe Mixon – 51.5 Rushing Yards

This is the one I’m least confident of if we’re being honest. I’m going to side with the over, but I can definitely see a case where he is under this prop. If the Bengals have any hope of winning today they’ll need to own the ground game and use up as much of the clock as possible. This would lead to Mixon having a solid game on the ground.

Mixon has hit this number 3 out of the last 5 weeks. Last week he rushed for 54 yards. In the 2 weeks he didn’t hit the number, he was still within a handful of yards of hitting. I like the Over on this one but wouldn’t blame you for going Under.

Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 Receiving Yards

Chase continues to just dominate teams. Will he be this week’s Gabriel Davis and shred the Chiefs secondary? There’s a good chance of it. If we look at what Chase has done over the last 5 weeks, it’s pretty incredible. We can throw out the meaningless game against the Browns. I

n the other 4 games he’s broken 200 yards once and 100 yards in the other 3 teams. I love Burrow’s Over number today and a big part of it will due to the play of Chase. PrizePicks is giving us an 84.5-yard prop today. I’m confident in saying that Chase blows this away today.

Travis Kelce – 70.5 Yards

While Tyreek Hill has the breakaway speed and big-play mantra, it’s Kelce who is the steady Eddie of the 2. Kelce was targeted 9 times last week and caught 8 of them for 96 yards. Where Kelce goes, Mahomes goes. With Mahomes expected to have another monster playoff performance today, expect Kelce to be a big part of it. Kelce has hit this number 3 of the last 5 weeks. Look for him to make it 4 of 6 today. I’m siding with the Over on this one too.

Make sure to read all of our other NFL articles here.

Good luck and hope to see some green screens today!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 16 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 16 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game, we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.

Let’s dig into the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and fantasy opportunities more often than create production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.

This weekend saw the return of two important receivers. The first was A.J. Brown. After missing weeks 12-15 with a chest injury Brown returned and his presence was felt immediately. Brown led everyone this weekend with 16 targets. He was able to catch 11 of his 16 targets for 145 yards and 1 touchdown. The 145 yards was the third time that Brown has reached the 100 yard mark this season.

Something to keep an eye on over the last 2 weeks will be Brown’s pursuit of 1,000 yards. Brown was able to accomplish this in each of his first 2 seasons. Now, he’s just 240 yards shy of that mark, even though he’s missed multiple weeks. Over the final 2 weeks, he needs to average just 120 yards to accomplish that feat for a third straight year. Do they funnel as many passes to him as possible? I sure hope so.

The other receiver making his return was Antonio Brown. With a wide receiving corps decimated by injuries, the return of Brown could not have come at a better time. With Evans and Godwin on the shelf, Brown stole the show. Tom Brady targeted him 15 times and he was able to catch 10 of them for 101 yards. The only thing missing from Brown’s stat-line in week 16 was a touchdown pass. Should Evans make a return next week the production from Brown may be short-lived. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Buc’s roster throughout the week.

Have yourself a day Tee Higgins. Tee Higgins had by far his best game of the season. While it seemed like everyone on the Bengals had a solid day, it was Higgins that nearly broke 200 receiving yards. On his 13 targets, his final stat-line was 12 catches, 194 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Week 16 was very kind to the Bengals, specifically Higgins. Up next week is a much tougher task with a hot Chiefs team.

Running Back Targets

With James Conner unable to finish the game due to injury, Chase Edmonds became more two-dimensional than he normally is. Edmonds was targeted a season-high 9 teams and was able to catch 8 of them. He also had a season-high 71 receiving yards. Should Conner miss again next week and Hopkins already out, there will be plenty of targets to go around.

The Los Angeles Chargers were without their star running back this weekend, Austin Ekeler. Justin Jackson tried his hardest to make sure that his team remained successful. In what was a common trend among players having season-high performances, Jackson was targeted a season high 9 times. Coming into the week he had only been targeted 5 times over the prior 5 weeks. Jackson caught 8 of the 9 targets for 98 yards. If Ekeler should miss next week the Chargers will be in fine hands once again.

Tight End Targets

There’s no way around it, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins has really hurt the Arizona Cardinals. That said, there are players that are really trying their hardest to step up and make up for the lack of production. Zach Ertz is one of those guys. For the second consecutive week, Ertz saw double-digit targets. Ideally, he would have done just a bit more with those targets though. While he caught 8 of the targets, he was only able to gain 54 receiving yards. If the Cardinals are going to get back on track they’re going to need more out of Ertz and others.

It does not matter who is throwing the ball to Mark Andrews. Andrews just continues to pile up stats as he had his third straight game with at least 100 receiving yards. His final line in week 16 was 10 targets, 8 catches, 125 yards, and 1 touchdown. The Ravens season is in a freefall, but it has nothing to do with Mark Andrews. Andrews will look to help his team right the ship next week against a very tough Rams team.

Kyle Pitts is quietly having a really solid season. At this point, he’s just 51 yards shy of breaking 1,000 yards receiving. In week 16 Pitts broke the hundred-yard mark for the third time in 2021. Since their bye in week 6, Pitts has had no fewer than 5 targets and no more than 8. His target share has been as consistent as there is. He’ll look to continue his solid season next week against the Bills.

Quarterback Target Share

With a pair of top Packers receivers missing this week’s game, we saw Rodgers lean pretty heavily on his running backs and tight ends in the passing game. While Adams saw 13 targets, we also saw Rodgers throw 15 passes to his non-wide receivers. Should MVS be back next week we are sure to see a swing back to more targets to his wide receivers

I noted it above, but we’re really seeing a different game plan recently out of the Cardinals. Without their star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they’re really having to spread the ball out more these days. Murray threw the ball 39 times in week 16. Of those 39, 23 went to either his backs or tight ends. Two of his top targeted guys were Zach Ertz and Chase Edmonds.

Running Back Touches

If you ask people on Twitter, Jonathan Taylor played poorly this week. The only thing that Taylor was missing in week 16 was a touchdown. Taylor broke the 100 yard mark for the third straight week and made it 100 yards or more for the sixth time in the last 7 weeks. He continues to be the workhorse of this offense and is putting up numbers worthy of being in the MVP conversation.

With a banged-up Darrell Henderson ruled out in week 16, Sony Michel was asked to pick up the load. He delivered as he rushed 27 times this weekend for 131 yards and one touchdown. It was the second time in the last 4 weeks that Michel produced over 100 yards. Over the last 4 weeks, he’s now rushed for over 400 yards. Should Henderson miss week 17 against the Ravens, the Rams will be in fine hands with Michel in the backfield.

The Texans were without 2 of their main offensive guys in week 16 with both David Johnson and Brandon Cooks out. Rex Burkhead said not to worry as he had arguably one of the best games of his career. His 22 carries on Sunday were by far the most he’s had all year, as were the 149 yards rushing he had. The 2021 season has been kind to Burkhead as he’s rushed for a career-high of 356 yards.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Usually, when I get to this section we see the Buccaneers all the way on the right of the chart as they’ve thrown the ball a ton this season. This week we saw a little bit of a different plan. Where they normally run the ball about 30% of the time, they ran it more than 50% of the time in week 16. With the top two receivers out for them this weekend it made sense to change things up a bit. It worked as they had a very convincing win over the Panthers.

Conversely, with the Panthers down almost from the start, they took to the air often. They threw the ball this weekend more than 70% of the time, with very little success. While they threw the ball 43 times, they were only able to garner 251 yards through the air. 2021 has been a struggle for the Panthers at the quarterback position and week 16 was no different.

Inside Look Wrap Up

We saw some dominant performances this weekend. Joe Burrow threw for over 525 yards against a decimated Ravens secondary. That’s over 900 passing yards against the Ravens this year. It’s like Chipper Jones-esque against the Mets. All in all, we saw 11 different guys get over 100 yards receiving in week 16. On the ground wasn’t much different as 8 guys had over 100 yards rushing. This was a fantasy player’s dream this weekend with all the production.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 11 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This is honestly gong to be a very condensed week for me with most of my interest in those two afternoon shootouts. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

DAL/KC
CIN/LV
HOU/TEN (pending weather)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

If you read the Cash Game Checkdown, you are aware of my love for this Bengals offense after the bye-week. The Raiders’ secondary is full of second-string talent and with extra days of preparation, I expect both of these offenses to go wild and produce a significant amount of fantasy points and HOPEFULLY, keep up the pace with Dallas and Kansas City. Burrow is my favorite quarterback play on this slate.

Key Pairing(s): Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah
Key Run-back(s): Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Zay Jones

Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

There’s not a whole lot on this slate that I like outside of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Having said that, Ryan Tannehill grades out as an excellent 1-3% owned NFL DFS GPP quarterback due to the red-zone rushing upside and the condensed target-share that is easy to stack. I don’t love the play, but will have a bit of Tannehill this weekend if the rain holds off. Be sure to check the weather before moving forward with Tannehill.

Key Pairing(s): A.J. Brown, D’Onta Foreman
Key Run-back(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

With all of the ownership going down to the value running backs, that leaves Ezekiel Elliott alone on an island with a 5% ownership projection. There is simply way too much touchdown equity in Zeke’s corner this weekend and he will be a core play for me in all formats. The late news of Tyron Smith being out, it gets me a bit less excited, but still in on Elliott.

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel but still a very interesting play on DraftKings. FanDuel clearly messed this pricing up because the AETY Model shows that his proper price-tag should be right around $7.5K on DraftKings and in the mid-low $8K range on FanDuel. Similar to Elliott, Joe Mixon has the highest touchdown equity in one of my favorite games to stack.

D’Onta Foreman ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

While everyone flocks to Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram for their value running backs, D’Onta Foreman is quietly in a great spot with Jeremy McNichols out with a concussion. The sportsbooks seem to agree as they have him close to even money to score a touchdown and a rushing prop of over 55 yards. It’s not sexy, but on DraftKings specifically, that price-tag allows you to do a lot and more importantly, in a different way than those eating all of the chalk value.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

To no surprise, I’m incredibly heavy on the main pass-catchers for the top two games on my list to start the article. This week, I’m just going to list off my receiver player pool in order of my GPP exposure. Tune into the livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further updates.

Tyreek Hill
CeeDee Lamb
Tee Higgins
Ja’Maar Chase
Michael Gallup
Bryan Edwards (nice 1-2% owned piece of that game)
Adam Thielen (easy run-back to the A.J. Dillon chalk)
A.J. Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DK Metcalf (no one is playing a Seattle stack this week)
Deebo Samuel (best matchup on the slate, just hope JAX can keep it close)
Zay Jones (min price 0% owned punt and will see a lot of Eli Apple. Don’t expect much volume but a big play is extremely possible to smash the $3K price-tag)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Similar to the above, I’m going to very concentrated at the tight-end position with the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce’s ownership sitting around 10% is comical and my main angle of attack is to be incredibly overweight with him or Waller, but if not, I’m very interested in the below…

George Kittle ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Picking on the Jaguars pass defense is usually a profitable move and the fact that Kittle is likely sub-5% owned is an excellent pivot if you’re not on the Kelce or Waller train. The Jaguars grade 26th in DVOA against the tight-end and 31st overall against the pass in general, yikes! A George Kittle drag-route touchdown will be incoming.

Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

As much as Amari Cooper helps out Michael Gallup, the AETY Model expects a significant boost up for Dalton Schultz on the inside of this Kansas City defense. As good of a player people think Tyrann Mathieu is, he really struggles in coverage and will see a fair share of the talented pass-catching, Dalton Schultz. Again, this game is loaded with fantasy appeal and chalk everywhere, but Schultz is going to be sub-5% in ownership and primed up for a higher-output game like he was used to earlier this season.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, John Bates

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 7 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.

Through the first half of Sunday’s Ravens/Bengals game we saw virtually no offense. After that Joe Burrow and his group of receivers absolutely took over the game. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 25 targets. While Higgins had more targets, Chase was the guy that really shined brightly.

Chase finished the game with 201 receiving yards on 10 targets. He also found the end zone once. Higgins led the way this week among receivers with 15 targets, although he was only able to corral 7 of them though for 62 years. The Bengals get a match up with the New York Jets next weekend and you have to think that Chase will continue his string of solid games to start his career.

Cooper Kupp now has 4 games with at least 2 touchdowns this year. He also doesn’t have a single game with less than 10 targets. The man is a beast and is one of the most consistent receivers in the game. This week was arguably his best game of the year as he finished the game with 10 catches on 13 targes and 156 yards through the air.

Terry McLaurin is good folks. He had himself another monster game this weekend. McLaurin had his second most receptions this week with 7 on 12 targets. His 12 targets were the fourth time this season he’s had double digit targets. This weekend was also the third time this season he had over 100 yards and the first time since week 4. Up next week for him is a solid match up with the Denver Broncos.

Running Back Targets

For the first time since week 1 D’Andre Swift had double digit targets. After averaging a little more than 4 targets in weeks 3-6 Swift was targeted 10 times on Sunday. He was able to pull in 8 of them for 96 yards receiving and 1 TD. Between rushing and receiving Swift had over 140 all purpose yards. Up next week for Swift and the Lions is a soft match up with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Once Zach Wilson went down the offense for the Jets changed. Michael Carter became a dual threat as Mike White threw to him 9 times yesterday. Before Sunday Carter hadn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game.

Carter was able to the make the most out his targets as he caught 8 of the 9 for 67 yards. If White is back in next week we have to consider Carter if he’s going to get this type of work.

With James White done for the year it was Brandon Bolden that stepped up in the pass catching game. Bolden had a season high 7 targets this weekend and was able to catch 6 of them 79 yards and 1 td.

While he wasn’t as effective on the ground, Bolden is going to give us more productivity with targets than he is rushes. He’s shown all year a high propensity to catch whatever targets are thrown his way as he’s only failed to convert on his targets twice this year.

Tight End Targets

The day ends in Y and Travis Kelce led all tight ends in targets. While he led the way with 12 targets, Kelce did not have a great game. At least by his standards. Kelce was only able to catch 7 of the 12 targets for just 65 yards. The 7 of 12 was his lowest completion % of the season.

If you are a Chiefs fan I’ll apologize for saying this, but yesterday was as disappointing of a game as you’ll see out of them. Up next week is a great rebound spot for the Chiefs as they take on the lowly New York Giants.

Even with Ridley Back, the Falcons are starting to heavily utilize Kyle Pitts. Even though he didn’t find the end zone this weekend, Pitts had one of his best games of the year. On the day he caught 7 of 8 targets for 163 yards. The 163 yards was the most he’s had all year and he now has back to back 100 yard games.

Mike Gesicki continues to be one of the most productive tight ends week in and week out. He averaged nearly 9 targets per week over the last 4 weeks and had another 8 targets this weekend. He was able to catch 7 of the 8 targets this weekend for 85 yards and was able to find the end zone once. Next week is a much tougher match up for Gesicki as him and his teammates take on the Buffalo Bills.

Quarterback Target Share

The combination of Zach Wilson and Mike White went heavy on the targets to their running backs. Out of the combined 41 pass attempts this weekend, 16 went to the combo of Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. Carter and Johnson finished 1 and 2 in terms of targets and receiving yards for the Jets this weekend.

If the Jets have any hopes of righting the ship, they’ll need to get Crowder and Davis more heavily involved in the passing game.

I somewhat highlighted Joe Burrow above, but man, what a game he had. Burrow threw the ball 36 times this weekend, with 32 of the going to his receivers. The trio of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd saw 32 of the 36 targets.

Burrow had a very straight forward plan of attack this weekend. Throw to his receivers often and that plan worked like a charm as the Bengals upset the Ravens in a big divisional match up.

Tua found most comfort this weekend in using his tight ends. Of the 40 passing attempts this weekend, 17 of them went to the group of Gesicki, Smythe, and Shaheen. Gesicki has become a big time favorite of Tua’s and it’s going to be a fun combo to watch the rest of the way.

Running Back Touches

Derrick Henry continues to be a work horse. While this week wasn’t his best, he continues to pound the ball as he had another 29 carries this weekend. That said, His yards per carry were his lowest since week 1. The Titans were up big the entire game yesterday so it’s possible Henry took his foot off the pedal just a little bit.

With Chubb and Hunt both out this weekend the Browns turned to D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson took full advantage of the opportunity. Like full advantage. Johnson carried the ball 22 times for 146 yards and found the end zone once.

After reading some tweets this weekend about how Johnson sent teams in the AAF messages to get try outs, this is as great of a feel good story as there may be this year. If Hunt and Chubb continue to be out, look Johnson to continue to work his tail off.

Jonathan Taylor is really coming into his own. He now has over 100 yards rushing in 3 of his last 4 outing and has rushing touchdowns in 4 straight games. Next week will prove to be a bit tougher as he takes on the Titans. If he continues his strong performance against a tough Titans defense we’ll know this the real Taylor.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend. If we look at a team like the Packers, we can see that they ran the ball almost 60% of the time while only throwing 40% of the time. Between Jones and Dillon the Packers ran the ball 24 times while Rodgers only threw the ball 21 times this week.

With the Cardinals up big time they switched to a more run heavy offense towards the end of the game. Edmonds, Connor, and Murray combined to rush more than 31 times this weekend. The Cardinals didn’t need to rely on Murray’s arm this weekend thanks to the huge lead they had.

Conversely, we had a Chiefs team that was down from the start. Between Mahomes and Henne the Chiefs threw the ball more than 50 times yesterday and only ran the ball 13 times. Mahomes was the leading rusher on the day for the Chiefs with just 35 yards. Has the league figured out Mahomes?

First Look Wrap Up

We are now more almost halfway through this 2021 season. This was as weird of a week as we’ve seen. Derrick Henry had more passing touchdowns than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and Sam Darnold. I hope that the data helps you build either season long lineups or for DFS.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Week 4 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Jaguars at Bengals

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000, DK $17,400)

Pivot: Joe Mixon (FD $14,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ja’Marr Chase (FD $15,300, DK $12,500)

Contrarian #2: Marvin Jones, Jr. (FD $11,500, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: James Robinson (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Choosing your captain is going to be a wide-open proposition this week, as nobody stands out among the player pool as a guy you absolutely need on TNF. I think the best strategy is to narrow your player pool to the players most likely to succeed given what should be a high-yardage game (if not high-scoring, as the O/U is only at 46). Joe Burrow should be the chalk, however, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase running slightly behind.

Bengals notes: There are two main items of importance to discuss on the injury front, as both safety Jessie Bates and WR Tee Higgins have been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. We’ll discuss the Bates injury in the context of the Jaguars offense in a bit, but the Higgins injury means that more targets will be concentrated among Chase, Tyler Boyd and Mixon — while C.J. Uzomah (just four catches on five targets through three games) remains a fringe fantasy option even in this showdown format. I’m a little less interested in the Bengals DST than I would be if Bates was playing, but they’re still a unit that could come up big against the mistake-prone Jaguars offense. Kicker Evan McPherson is in play, but not much of a priority, as the yardage totals in this game should be a little higher than expected. WR Mike Thomas is the only sub-$1K player I’d consider, and that would only be in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Jaguars notes: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game gets a slight uptick with Bates out, as the Bengals safety is one of the best coverage DBs in football and a guy they use all over the field — in the slot, deep in coverage and in man against TEs and WRs (although some of that loss will be mitigated by the return of Bengals CB Trae Waynes from a hamstring injury). Marvin Jones, Jr. has been the most targeted WR on the team this season (and the most productive), but I think they’ll find some ways to get Laviska Shenault, Jr. the ball a bit more in this matchup given the defensive shakeup on the Bengals. The other main options are D.J. Chark, Jr. (why is everybody a JUNIOR?) and James Robinson, who has resumed more of a bell cow role in the offense, logging 15 carries and six targets last week against the Cards, The Jaguars DST is also really cheap, and is just a dart throw play in large-field GPPs since they’ve yet to reach double digits in any DK contest this year. Still — they offer the most consistent production of any FLEX option under $4K, even with the glaring possibility of negative points. And don’t forget about TEs Dan Arnold (who makes the TNF showdown write-up two weeks in a row as he was acquired earlier this week from the Panthers) and Jacob Hollister, a $1K punt play who was targeted six times by Lawrence last week en route to 2-15-0. Josh Lambo is out tonight, and I don’t know if new Jags kicker Matthew Wright will be added to the player pool before lock — but I’d avoid him unless he’s a late addition and really cheap.

Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. It’s basically just Hollister and Thomas, and they are 1/20 or 2/20 GPP plays at best.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Joe Mixon
Ja’Marr Chase
Marvin Jones, Jr.
James Robinson
Tyler Boyd
Trevor Lawrence
Laviska Shenault, Jr.
D.J. Chark, Jr.
Bengals DST
Dan Arnold
Jaguars DST
C.J. Uzomah
Evan McPherson
Auden Tate
Chris Evans
Carlos Hyde
Jacob Hollister
Mike Thomas
Jamal Agnew

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 4 action!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 2 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Bengals at Browns

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please get in the game with a gold account and consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Joe Burrow (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)

Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $12,900, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #2: Tyler Boyd (DK $10,500, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Nick Chubb (DK $11,400, FD $13,500)

This is a pretty straight-forward Showdown slate, and I’m leaning toward using Joe Burrow as my MVP based on his ability to score on the ground or via the air with both his WRs and RBs.

I think the most ownership will end up with Burrow as the top guy, though I understand the contrarian pivot to Mayfield or a guy like Joe Mixon – the player likely to have the most touches in this game.

Both defenses are pretty banged up, and while the total is just 43.5, I’m expecting a higher-scoring game. If you have to play a defense in the top spot, make it the Browns (because of their pass rush) and fill in the rest of your lineups accordingly based on that narrative.

I’d steer clear of using a kicker in the MVP slot in this game because we probably don’t need to go there.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Joe Burrow as your MVP with no Bengals position players and the Browns DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Joe Mixon
Nick Chubb
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Baker Mayfield
Jarvis Landry (questionable, hip)
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt
C.J. Uzomah
Reggie Bullock
Cody Parkey (make sure he’s starting)
Browns D
Giovani Bernard
Bengals D
John Ross III
Rashard Higgins
Auden Tate
Harrison Bryant

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL Draft 2020: Our Staff’s Best Bets & Live Draft Show

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

It’s been over a month since I made a wager on a professional/collegiate sporting event… Yikes. I’m itching to get some action and hopefully (unless you have a gambling problem, then please seek help) you are too.

I would like to let personally invite you to our LIVE NFL Draft show on Twitter on Thursday at 7:30pm eastern. We will be running a contest and giving away a FREE 6 MONTH GOLD MEMBERSHIP! In order to enter you must follow the directions below.

1. Follow us on Twitter @WinDailyDFS
2. Like our official Contest Tweet that will be posted Thursday at 5pm
3. Retweet that Twitter post
4. Reply to that tweet with the top 10 draft picks in order. You do not have to name the team, just the player!
5. Watch the live show at Twitter.com/WinDailyDFS

Without further ado, let’s get right into the Win Daily Staff’s 2020 NFL Draft Best Bets.

So we’re all playing with the same odds, we’re getting our numbers directly from DraftKings Sportsbook. Thanks to our partnership with DraftKings, you can get in on the action and take advantage of a huge boost! Just click this link and you can get a 20% profit boost on all NFL Draft Markets!

Example:

User bets $25 on Chase Young (+2000) to be the first overall pick in the Draft
Chase Young is selected first overall
The user would normally win $500
With the profit boost, the user will now win $600

Sticks’ Picks – 2020 NFL Draft

Justin Herbert Draft Position OVER 5.5 (-138): Personally, I hate taking anything more than (-115) on any bet, but I’ve been anti-Herbert all off-season and really don’t think there’s any chance he gets selected in the Top-10… unless there is some shuffling of draft picks, via trade (which is entirely possible).

Maybe the Chargers roll the dice on Herbert, but I just don’t see any other Quarterbacks going in the Top-10 outside of Tua and Burrow (and maybe a trade up for Jordan Love). I’ll lay the juice with confidence that Herbert gets selected after pick five.
Jake Fromm Draft Position OVER 68.5 (-110): I loved Fromm two years ago at Georgia, but it seems he hasn’t really progressed into a top NFL caliber draftee. Fromm is hardly a Top-10 Quarterback in this 2020 NFL Draft Class, so taking the over 68.5 appears like free money at first glance… and the price is damn-near even money. Sign me up!
Jordan Love Drafted by the Raiders (+900): Not much to say here, I just think the Raiders have to draft a Quarterback and are unlikely to move up for Tua or Burrow. For what it’s worth, according to Addison Hayes’ reports, the Raiders have visited Love both at the combine and through a virtual meeting. I guess that sounds comforting, let’s punch in this wager.
Justin Herbert Drafted by the Raiders (+1400): See above. If you put $20 on both bets for the 2020 NFL Draft, and the Raiders happen to choose one of them, the worst you can do is profit $140. I’m in.

Sia’s Picks

Henry Ruggs Draft Position UNDER 13.5 (-121)
Tristan Wirfs Draft Position UNDER 8.5 (-152)

Javi’s Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to MISS Playoffs (+260)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 10 Wins (-110) – Javi clearly is not buying into the public’s early money (the Bucs total quickly moved from 9.5 wins to 10) on the Bucs as soon as they signed Rob Gronkowski. If you’re interested in the preseason bet, you can probably get an even better price as the public money continues to flood the OVER.

David Jones’ Picks

Jeff Okudah Draft Position UNDER 4.5 (+110)
Jalen Hurts Draft Position OVER 55.5 (-110): Loved him in college (but not because of raw talent, Roll Tide). I do not expect him to have much of a career in the NFL and should fall pretty late.
Jordan Love Draft Position OVER 23.5 (-110): I don’t think four Quarterbacks come off the board before the 24th pick.
Henry Ruggs Draft Position OVER 13.5 (+100): Ruggs isn’t one of the top two receivers in my opinion. I think it’s safe he’ll be on the board past pick 14.
Atlanta Falcons First Drafted Position: Cornerback (-167)
Las Vegas Raiders First Drafted Position: Wide Receiver (-167)

Jason’s Picks – 2020 NFL Draft

First Draft Pick – Hugs Dad First (+250)
Will a Draftee Experience Technical Difficulties: YES (-300)
Covid-19 Prop: OVER 9.5 People Shown in the Same Room (Whatever odds you can find)
Total Dogs Shown in the Same Room: OVER 3.5 (Whatever odds you can find)
Will a Draftee Pop Champagne: YES (+600)

Michael’s Picks

Will any Draftee be shown drinking beer: YES (+700)
Total cats shown during the first round: UNDER 0.5 (-110)
Henry Ruggs Draft Position OVER 13.5 (+100)

Gambling problem? Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN only) or 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA only).

*21+ NJ/WV/PA/IN only. New users only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

5 years ago 0 comments

Joe Burrow

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Odell Beckham, Jr. (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #3: Joe Mixon (FD $12,500)

FanDuel Value Play: Kendall Blanton (FD $8,000)

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (DK $17,400)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (DK $15,900)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (DK $16,200)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (DK $11,400)

DK Value Play: Evan McPherson (DK $6,000)

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Super Bowl Picks

Conference Championship Picks

Wide Receiver Targets

Running Back Targets

Tight End Targets

Quarterback Target Share

Running Back Touches

Playbook

Inside Look Wrap Up

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

D’Onta Foreman ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

George Kittle ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

Wide Receiver Targets

Running Back Targets

Tight End Targets

Quarterback Target Share

Running Back Touches

Playbook

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000, DK $17,400)

Pivot: Joe Mixon (FD $14,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ja’Marr Chase (FD $15,300, DK $12,500)

Contrarian #2: Marvin Jones, Jr. (FD $11,500, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: James Robinson (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Sticks’ Picks – 2020 NFL Draft

Jason’s Picks – 2020 NFL Draft

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