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Joaquin Niemann

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re finding you some prime selections for the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico, especially when it comes to winning GPPs!

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PGADFS Course Notes:

Course: El Camaleón Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico (Par: 71 – Yardage: 6,987 – Grass: Seashore Paspalum)
Greg Norman designed this fascinating semi-coastal layout, which features three different ecosystems, including some thicket and jungle in the upper areas, and more swampy wetlands with minimal undulation on the Mexican-Caribbean coastline
Cut: The field is at 132 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend.
The winning score is typically in the minus-17-to-22 range
Previous winners: Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, John Huh, Mark Wilson, Brian Gay, and Fred Funk.
Higher winds could always complicate play and prep, but the course plays to a field average of roughly 70.2 (-0.8 RTP) on the par-71 layout.
Focus Stat Categories are Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – I doubt El Tucan will be on his bag this year, but Kuchar seems to be ready to defend his title and take his lumps on social media because of last year’s controversy. It’s his season debut, but he’s one of the favorites and will make plenty of my builds.

Tony Finau (DK $10,600, FD $11,500) – Finau is an excellent driver of the golf ball, even with that abbreviated backswing, but sometimes struggles with accuracy – so this is a GPP pick only. If he can keep it in play and make some putts, there’s no reason he can’t win.

Charles Howell, III (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) – Along and accurate hitter, Howell checks all the boxes for this course and iscoming here in decent form. He’s 8-for-10 making the cut at Mayakoba with threetop-10s and another four top-20s and is an impressive 5-for-5 this season withtwo top-10s and another top-20. Fine for both cash and GPP despite the MC lasttime around here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Ancer is Mexico’s top golf talent, and he would love for this to be his first career win. The driving accuracy is there, and his form is solid, as he placed T4 in his WGC-HSBC Champions debut.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Scheffler is a top talent who led after an opening 62 before finishing T3 in Bermuda. He’s an excellent ball-striker who hits solid approaches, but I won’t be 100 percent as he’s making his El Camaleón debut.

LantoGriffin (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)– He’s thecurrent FedEx Cup points leader, and he’s finished no worse than a pair of T18sthis season. I worry a bit about his accuracy off the tee and the better fieldshe’ll be encountering, but he’s a GPP play you shouldn’t fade completely.

Also consider: Victor Hovland, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, AaronWise, Russell Knox

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900, FD$10,500) – Myfriends get on my case for playing him too much in the majors, but he’s a popularDFS target for his elite ball-striking. He’s got some good course history withfinishes of T10, T9, and solo 15th in three tries at El Camaleón. Moreof a GPP play, though he could get chalky on DK.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) – The form hasn’t been great, but he’s 4-for-4 here with a 4th and a 14th, so I’m buying his skillset of accuracy and precision over power and loading up in GPPs. Plus, he’s a personal favorite and a cool who likes to tell gambling stories about Phil.

Pat Perez (DK $8,100, FD $9,600)– Helikes the course, as one of his three career wins came here when he triumphed in2016 by two strokes over Gary Woodland at 21-under, featuring a third-round 62.Mix in three other top 20s at El Camaleón (in seven total starts). A recent solo thirdat the Shriners and an affinity for Paspalum (he won at TPC Kuala Lumpur whenit was Paspalum), and you’ve got yourself an option.

Brian Gay (DK $7,900, FD $9,400) – He was excellent in Bermuda with a T3 – his third top 25 of the new season – and this is where he had his first win in 2008. Overall, he’s 9-for-9 here with four top-25s, and I just can’t fade the guy despite him being a chalky pick.

Brice Garnett (DK $7,600, FD$9,300) – The veteran ballstriker has a great record here (he’s 4-for-4 since 2014 with three top 10s, aT25 and a scoring average of 67.81) and he’s won on Paspalum at the CoralesPuntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018. I like the discount on DK andwill be using him in a handful of builds.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) – The exciting young rookie got close at Bermuda, sharing the 36-hole lead and sitting by himself at the top of the 54-hole before finishing solo second, possibly because of too much napping. There’s a lot of reasons to roster him this week, his affinity for coastal tracks coming in along with solid form and upside.

Also consider: Scott Piercy, Harold Varner III,Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Ryan Armour (DK $7,200, FD $8,800) – A short hitter but one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, Armour hits fairways and finished solo 4th as a rookie here in 2007. Since then, he’s played well here, with a T21 last year, and he arrives in good form with a T23 in Houston and a T8 in Bermuda. The price is fair and Armour is a great course fit for cash or GPP.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,700, FD $8,300) – Despite his solid course history, I don’t know if Spaun will be super popular this week because he usually isn’t very highly owned. In his first appearance as a rookie in 2016, he finished T28, and he’s added a T14 and a T3 since them posting a scoring average over his 12 rounds of 67.75. His form is poor, but this course can be an elixir for the wayward.

Calum Hill (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – There’s plenty tolike about this young Scottish lad, who finished 2nd in the Road to Mallorcastandings that rank Euro Tour hopefuls. The 25-year-old’s game worked out well onthe Euro Tour with three top 30s in each of his last three starts. The pricemakes him a solid value option in a week without too many of them.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,400, FD $9,200) – Kim is 3-for-3 here with a T17 in 2015, a third place in 2017, and T26 (with Chez Reavie) last season. He hasn’t flashed much brilliance this season, but I like this layout as a springboard to some better form.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Todd won at Bermuda and has an excellent record here. He’ll be chalky value pick because of his recent win, but I’ll have some shares given his penchant for low rounds. Let’s just hope he makes the cut!

Sepp Straka (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – I’ve fared well using Straka in DFS and his price remains relatively low. He’s making his debut at his event, but that hasn’t stopped folks before. Straka is accurate off the tee and has strong SG: T2G numbers, so I’ll give him a look at this price point.

More value golfers for GPPs: Patton Kizzire, Brian Stuard,Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Brown, C.T. Pan

The PGA DFS Fades:

Danny Lee (DK $8,300, FD $9,800) – Lee could popular this week since he finished second here last year and nabbed a second-place finish at the CJ CUP, so I’m not going to castigate DFS fans who check out game logs and course history – heck, I do it myself. I may have one or two shares of the Korean-born New Zealander in GPPs, but I’ll definitely be underweight on the field; Lee is an inconsistent [player who misses a lot of cuts and missed cut equity says that if he’s chalky, it might help to fade him.

Cameron Champ (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – An incredibly long hitter but one who’s not particularly accurate off the tee, his game isn’t suited well for the layout, and the price is still too high for me to use. Sorry, Champ.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Billy Horschel (DK $10,200, FD$11,300) – “He performs better as asleeper than a top play, and when you really need him to play well,he lets you down.” – Mark “Spades”Spada

Spades is really mellowing out with his rhetoric! I expected a lot of nasty remarks, but I agree with what he’s saying. Add in the fact that Billy Ho is the fifth most expensive player in the field on both sites and listed as No. 1 on the PGA Tour’s power rankings this week, and we have a fade I can get behind! I’ve had Horschel burn me multiple times when he’s getting lots of chalky action, and when I have no shares, he seems to explode. I’ll commit to exactly ONE lineup with Horschel to stay underweight and that’ll be it.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Abraham Ancer ($9,200)

Scottie Scheffler($9,100)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Chez Reavie($8,500)

Si Woo Kim($7,400)

Sepp Straka($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Jason Day ($11,000)

Lanto Griffin($9,000)

Brian Gay($7,900)

Harry Higgs($7,500)

Brendan Todd($7,200)

Ryan Armour($7,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Charles HowellIII ($9,600)

Aaron Wise ($9,400)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Harold VarnerIII ($7,900)

Xinjun Zhang($7,300)

Calum Hill($6,600)

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5 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: The CJ CUP

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’ll explore some of the top golfers in the CJ CUP focusing on closers who can finish in the Top 10.

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Quick Course Notes:

Course: The Club at Nine Bridges (Par: 72 – Yardage: 7,184 – Greens: Bentgrass)
The Club at Nine Bridges is on Jeju Island – 60 miles south of mainland South Korea and hosts the CJ Cup for the third consecutive year.
No-cut event featuring 78 golfers.
Wind could be a factor this week.
Top stats we’ll focus on are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par 5s Gained, Scrambling & Strokes Gained: Approach

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $10K and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – He won here last year and this course sets up perfectly for him – especially since we can remove the variables of a slow start. Koepka checks all the boxes and can handle adverse conditions anywhere in the world. Even if he’s not hitting fairways, he’s an excellent scrambler with patience and the ability to get strokes back in a hurry.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,700, FD $12,000) – If you don’t play Koepka, you should play Thomas, who won here in 2017. He’s been incredibly steady lately with nothing worse than Top 12 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a T4 at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago. Taking Koepka & Thomas leaves you with $6,725 per golfer on DK in a studs-and-scrubs approach, and I’ll be building more than a couple lineups this way with no cut looming over the scrubs.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,300, FD $10,900) – Pairing Koepka with Fleetwood leaves us $7,075 per golfer, and the Englishman’s form is solid – with a T5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links championship in late September. He’s currently fifth on the European Tour in GIR and sixth in scoring average, and he ranked 12^th in SG: Off the Tee in 2019. I might have some GPPs with just Fleetwood ($7,940 per the remaining five golfers), or Koepka ($7,720 per the remaining five) among the elite picks and go for a more balanced approach with the remaining five golfers.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,100) – Matsuyama is the weakest golfer of these elite picks, and his form isn’t great (three MC in his last eight starts). But with no cut, maybe he can find his game and use his strengths (power/ball-striking combo and precision approaches) to dominate Nine Bridges, where he debuted with a T18 last year.

Also consider: Colliin Morikawa, Victor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8K to $10K):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,700, FD $10,300) – There’s probably not a harder working golfer around, and Im’s packed schedule certainly keeps him busy. But the top-ranked South Korean national hasn’t missed a cut since The Open Championship and he finished in second place at Sanderson Farms in mid-September. He took a rare but much-needed week at the Shriner’s after a T49 at the Safeway, and his recharged batteries could provide a nice narrative if he can contend at home.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,100, FD $9,800) – We’re getting Garcia in excellent form, at a considerable discount from some of his European peers, and without a cut – a consequential footnote considering his predilection for poor behavior and insane blowups. While he failed to advance to the BMW Championship during the recent FedEx Cup Playoffs, he has since posted a Top 25 at the Omega European Masters, won the KLM Open on the European Tour in mid-September and most recently finished T7 in the Spanish Open.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,600, FD $10,100) – Garcia isn’t the only Spaniard we have to watch in this tourney. RCB has improved on a couple of key stats recently (GIR and SG: Putting), and he arrives in good form after a solo second in the Spanish Open a couple weeks ago. He’s also nabbed a T11 and T3 at the CJ CUP. I worry that he’s not the best closer, but there’s a good chance at a Top 10 finish and if he fits, I’ll use him.

Matthew Wolff (DK $8,800, FD $9,300) – Wolff is a star on the rise with a big, quirky swing that belies a balanced game and interesting fit to this golf course. He’s making his debut here, but he finished T10 at the Safeway Open and should benefit from the no-cut structure and he might improve each day he plays this stunning layout.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,300, FD $9,200) – Reavie might get chalky at his affordable price, but if he’s not, I’ll have some exposure. He’s got two Top 15s here but missed the cut at the Shriner’s – something I’m hoping the game log watchers buy into.

Also consider: Danny Willett, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton, Kevin Na (GPP only)

Value PGA DFS (DK $8K and under):

Pat Perez (DK $7,500, FD $8,900) – While he initially cited his last-minute WD from the Houston Open as due to a wrist injury, he later clarified that he just wanted to get a head start ion arriving in Korea for this personal favorite (where he earned a T5 in 2017 and T7 in 2018). He gained entry on a sponsor exemption and I’m counting on lower ownership than his course fit (and obvious value) would suggest, because some folks got burned by his WD last week.

Jazz Janewattananond (DK $7,000, FD $8,100) – One of the best Asian golfers who also plays events on the Euro tour, Jazz sits atop the Asian Tour’s Order of Merit with two wins, and he’s posted an incredible 17 top-six finishes worldwide in the last 12 months, including victories at the 2019 SMBC Singapore Open and 2019 Kolon Korea Open.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,900, FD $8,700) – Sabbatini is among my favorite GPP options on Bentgrass, as his putting improves considerably on that surface. He’s among the best in the field in Par 4 Scoring and Birdies or Better Gained on courses that feature Bentgrass greens and he’s coming off a T10 at the Italian Open.

Joel Dahmen (DK$7,100, FD $8,200) – He finished T9 at the Shriners two weeks ago and performed well in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and par-4 scoring. While Dahmen placed T29 in his debut at Nine Bridges last year and remains a longshot to win, his stats models trend up for this course, and he’s a value option that I’ll have some exposure to in the hopes he can nab a top 10 finish.

Also consider: Ian Poulter, Abraham Ancer & Sung Kang (GPP only)

The Fades:

Jason Day (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – The former world No. 1 (seems like ages ago, doesn’t it) enters the week ranked 27rd in OWGR, and it’s been a tough descent to watch, as I’m a huge fan. He tied for fifth last year and 11th the year before, so he could garner higher ownership than his form warrants.

Gary Woodland (DK $9,400, $10,200) – 2019 was a big year for Woodland, who was the runner-up to Koepka last season before he snagged his impressive U.S. Open victory. He’s still got some upside, but there’s something missing from his game and he’ll get lots of ownership because of last year’s finish at this venue.

Spades’ Fade of theWeek:

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,000, FD $10,600) – “He’s a self-destructing crybaby who only knows how to putt, and he hasn’t played this year yet.” – Mark “Spades” Spada

Yep. I’m right there with you, Spades. It’s been a while since he finished 37th at the BMW Championship and was eliminated from the FedExCup playoffs, and the only thing that scares me is the no-cut aspect, because a fellow who relies this heavily on his putter has MC-equity I can dig.

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5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Insight Sheet: 3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock with all of your DFS PGA needs. This week at the 3M Open, you’ll find the model’s Top 50, Vegas odds, Data Golf World Ranks, key stats and my personal player pool.

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Personal Player Pool

Players priced between $12,000 and $10,000

Hideki Matsuyama – $11,100
Matsuyama’s game fits this course very well, like last week where he finished T13. Matsuyama projects to be one of the highest owned golfers in the 10,000 and up pricing. That should not stop you from adding him to your roster as Matsuyama has the second best Vegas odds.

Bryson DeChambeau – $10,500
Coming off a T8 at the Travelers Championship, DeChambeau ranks number one for the 3M Open. Like Matsuyama, his ownership should be near the top. He has the best Opportunity score among the highest priced golfers. I’ll look for him to make several birdies and be atop the leader board come Sunday.

Patrick Reed – $10,000
Reed has been playing well making the cut in his last three tournaments. With a T5 in last weeks RCM, I expect Reed to continue his success in a week where the course and field are similar. Look for Reed to take advantage of all three Par 5s at TPC Twin Cities.

Players Priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Joaquin Niemann – $9,300
Niemann has made the cut the last five times playing, with his last two finishes T5. He’s been one of the best in the field at gaining strokes with his ball striking. The industry expects Niemann to contend this week with his projected 20% ownership.

Tony Finau – $9,200
When was the last time you’ve seen Finau’s price be this cheap? His three straight missed cuts probably has something to do with it. With the wider fairways at the 3M Open, Finau should have better opportunities to gain strokes with his approach game.

Viktor Hovland – $9,100
Hovland has been impressive as a rookie in his three starts on tour. Two Top 15 finishes has Hovland rising quick, in both price and ownership. He gains massive strokes off the tee and with a course tailor made for bombers, expect Hovland to keep climbing the ranks.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Kevin Na – $8,600
Na was a bit of a surprise for me in the model. He’s middle of the field in every scoring category. What will help Na compete, though, is his short game and putting on the bent greens. Kevin Na is the exact opposite of Keegan Bradley and the perfect pivot.

Phil Mickelson – $8,500
Mickelson’s off the tee game has been atrocious going back several tournaments. In those tournaments, though, they’ve required accuracy off of the tee. At the 3M Open I believe that requirement will be negated by the wide fairways. Mickelson should be able to keep the ball out of trouble and do well with his short game. He is more of a GPP only play, his ownership should be around five percent.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Collin Morikawa – $7,900
Morikawa doesn’t appear in my Top 50 but I’m still gonna include him. He’s played well since turning pro with three made cuts and he gained 14 strokes total over that span. Morikawa is not surprising anyone anymore but with his consistent approach, I may look to add him to my cash lineup.

Peter Malnati – $7,800S
Like Morikawa, Malnati had been a model of consistency. He’s made his last five cuts in a row and will look to improve on his T30 finishes. Malnati will be a staple in my cash games.

Lucas Glover – $7,700
The last two times I wrote up Glover he’s missed the cut. Granted, those were on tougher courses and better fields. Data Golf has him eighth in the field in world ranking. He’s the best in the field at Par 4s between 400 – 450 yards. Glover cannot miss the cut three times in a row, can he?

Sepp Straka – $7,500
Straka’s play last week salvaged my lineups. He received a decent price bump from last week but I don’t think that will stop the masses. Ball striking is a big weapon in his game and it should be expected to continue at the 3M Open.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Bud Cauley – $7,300
I honestly thought Cauley was going to play better last week. He needs to find his putter. He is more of a GPP only play. I expect Cauley to rebound this week.

Denny McCarthy – $7,100
McCarthy’s game scores well at Data Golf, as they have him ranked 77th in the world. That is a much better ranking than Vegas odds of 145/1. He played well last week and the 3M Open sets up similarly. McCarthy got the job done on the greens at the RMC and will need to continue the trend to succeed.

Wyndham Clark – $7,100
It’s funny that Clark and McCarthy are priced the same this week. Both are coming off Top 20s and both excel with the putter. One difference, though, is Clark is long off the tee. I prefer Clark to McCarthy for that sole reason as I believe bombers will have a slight advantage this week.

Players priced below $7,000

Sebastian Munoz – $6,700
Munoz missing the cut last week is not the greatest leadoff into the 3M Open. He lost strokes almost everywhere outside of around the green. Munoz is capable of scoring very well on Par 5s and that’s where I hope he makes his money this week.

Richy Werenski – $6,100
Did not expect to see Werenski on the sheet, did you? Neither did I. Not only is he on the Insight Sheet, but he’s the fourth ranked player! This is purely a stat related selection but he’s 30th or better in ball striking, approach, opportunities gained and DraftKings points. He has almost no positive recent form as he missed the cut four out of five times. He’s my Scott Stallings for the week. He will be less than one percent owned. PURE GPP FLIER!!

Thank you for reading. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily DFS (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

Stat source: FantasyNational

5 years ago 0 comments

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