The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 15 NFL DFS contests!
We should have a fun matchup in NFL DFS for Week 15 here on Thursday Night Football!
We’ve got myriad skill position injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s showdown, but thankfully neither QB carries an injury designation. Despite the Chargers being 3-point road dogs, Justin Herbert is the chalk at CPT and should be in most of the roster builds that get clicked in before lock. While we could argue there’s some reason to consider fading the gunslinger rookie (three consecutive games under 20 DK points), I’m much less excited about the prospect of rolling out Derek Carr in the top spot. Carr is coming off his two best fantasy performances of 2020, but I have some trust issues after his putrid performance in Week 12 @ATL.
Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are game-time decisions, and if they sit, I’ll definitely be pivoting more to Carr and TE Darren Waller as the core of my builds, mixing in shares of whomever gets the start at RB for the Chargers, be that Austin Ekeler (questionable but expected to play with a quad injury) or Kalen Ballage. Right now, it looks like Ekeler should be good to go, but Ballage would be an obscenely good value if he gets back the workhorse role he had in the weeks before Ekeler returned.
Chargers pass catchers to consider (if either or both of Allen and Williams are inactive) include TE Hunter Henry (a solid play in any event) WR Tyron Johnson – who finished Week 14 with 6-55-1 on seven targets from Herbert – and even Jalen Guyton, a downfield target who’s had 40 targets and a 21-377-3 receiving line this season. He’s a “final piece” type of plug in who could exploit the Raiders secondary issues.
We could also see more offensive snaps and a handful or targets for rookie K.J. Hill, who fellow former Ohio St. Buckeye Cris Carter said was a steal in the 2020 NFL draft.
The Raiders have placed Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 reserve list, so he’s unavailable for this showdown. That gives Nelson Agholor a slight bump and greatly increases the chances of a big game for Hunter Renfrow. Rookie WR Bryan Edwards, not targeted in Sunday’s loss to Indy and without a catch in the Jets game, might also be a factor. He and Zay Jones are fringe plays at best.
As for kickers and defenses, I trust Raiders K Dylan Carlson a lot more than Chargers K Michael Badgley, who hasn’t scored in the past two weeks. Carlson is even cheaper on DK. With three negative DK point performances in their last three games, the Raiders DST are more expensive and have a lot less to offer from a gamebreaking perspective than the Chargers DST. But if the Bolts are without their top two WRs, they have to be considered in the occasional GPP.
Injury Update: As of 1 p.m. EST, Ekeler is expected to play, Williams is doubtful, and Allen remains a true GTD.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Include Darren Waller somewhere. He’s the most involved player for both teams and is on the field for almost every Raiders offensive snap.
DON’T: Ignore the Chargers inactives – it’s going to have a huge effect on Herbert’s effectiveness and the players who impact this showdown.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with Chargers-Saints on MNF, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Some notable injuries: The story of this game will likely be told by who is available on defense for the Saints, who are one of the best defenses in the league when healthy. The injury-riddled Saints have already ruled out CB Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and CB Justin Hardee (hamstring), and both DE Marcus Davenport (toe), and playmaking CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) turned in limited practices leading up to this game. DT Sheldon Rankins made an appearance on the injury report and didn’t practice on Saturday because of a thumb injury, and he’s also listed as questionable.
The Saints offensive line has some injuries too (G Andrus Peat and T Ryan Ramczyk), which could affect their RB usage in attacking the Chargers run defense. If Ramczyk plays they might pound the right side more since Joey Bosa (triceps) didn’t look great in Week 4.
On the Chargers side, we have rookie RB Joshua Kelley and the recently activated Justin Jackson handling backfield duties while Austin Ekeler (hamstring) recovers on IR. QB Justin Herbert seems ready for prime time, and he’ll be asked to shoulder a heavy load on Monday night. He makes for a solid contrarian captain pivot in this showdown.
The obvious chalk at captain will be Alvin Kamara, who has 45-point upside given the 1.5x multiplier and the fact that Michel Thomas (ankle, coach’s decision) is still out. Latavius Murray is a viable contrarian CPT choice as well, since the Saints could try to salt this thing away with traditional north-south running and goal line plunges if they jump out to a large lead.
There’s still a case to be made for Drew Brees at CPT in what may be his final game facing his old team, and that’s an interesting narrative if not a likely positive outcome. There’s some inefficiency to his game lately and the Saints would be silly not to capitalize on their strong rush offense.
Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith are both high-risk options but should be sprinkled throughout your lineups with the news coming this weekend that Thomas is being disciplined and kept out of action tonight. I kind of like Jared Cook (groin, probable) for his two-TD upside in GPPs at what should be relatively low ownership.
If you’re stacking Herbert with Chargers WRs, you’ll be looking at Keenan Allen and company (Hunter Henry should really eat this week, Mike Williams is questionable but trending upward, and Jalen Guyton could even be an option) in what could be smash spot against a battered Saints secondary.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on defenses, the sub-2K on DK players (not a lot there) or the Saints passing game tonight, though it’s a viable contrarian play to stack Brees with Cook and a WR if you’re entering large-field MMEs.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Ignore the effectiveness of Latavius Murray this season. The Saints are a different offensive team now and Murray’s bruising style has been one of their strengths,
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($7,500) DK ($7,000)
With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.
FD($6,400) DK ($4,900)
While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.
FD($6,000) DK ($5,800)
The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.
FD($6,200) DK ($5,400)
Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)
Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.
FD($5,300) DK ($3,700)
The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.
TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP
JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only
JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt
NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
FD($4,900) DK ($3,100)
The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,200)
I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.
Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills
FD($4,700) DK ($4,300)
The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.
Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys
FD($4,800) DK ($3,000)
They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,300)
Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.
It’s time for our Week 16 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD($6,900) DK ($6,000)
The price continues to rise, and now he’s the mostexpensive TE on both sites. I might stay away from him in a few of my GPPs becauseof what promises to be relatively high ownership, but I’m locking him into cashgames.
FD($6,500) DK ($6,100)
We nailed Waller last week as he exploded for 10-122-0 and was the top-scoring TE despite failing to reach the end zone. This week we could see him snag a score along with his normal smattering of 6-10 targets/catches and 50-100 yards. He’s a solid play in all formats.
FD($6,000) DK ($4,400)
The price is very reasonable on both sites, and it almost lookslike a mistake on DK. Hooper has immense upside and we know that teamssometimes Julio Jones – forcing Hooper into more targets. The Jags defense is afar cry from the unit it was in 2018, and Hooper could go off in Week 16 in asneaky good spot.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,900)
Andrews seems to fly under the radar every weekin GPPs, mainly because there are so many ways for the Ravens to beat you andfolks don’t want to tie their hopes to a TE when so much of their success on thelegs of Lamar Jackson. Andrews is risky, to be sure, but he’s got 25-point upsideand saw eight targets in the Week 4 loss to Cleveland. He’s also pretty cheapon DK.
FD($6,100) DK ($4,700)
Henry is a huge risk in DFS, as he goes through serious scoringdroughts and is typically a boom-or-bust GPP play – and this week is no different.I’m willing to take the chance in Week 16 because the Raiders are among the worstat defending TEs.
FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)
Death, taxes and playing TEs against the Cards. That’s what the Hollister play boils down to in Week 16. I don’t love the price on FD, but he does have 15-20 point upside in the matchup.
FD($5,100) DK ($3,200)
The Giants will be without Evan Engram once again, so Smithshould maintain an expanded role on offense over the Giants’ final two games.He’s without the monster upside f his fellow receivers, but he’s affordable onDK and could get you 10-15 points.
JaredCook, NO at TEN (FD $6,600, DK $5,000) – GPP only
TaysomHill, NO at TEN (FD $5,200) FD GPP only since he’s a QB on DK
DallasGoedert, PHI vs. DAL (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) – GPP only
MikeGesicki, MIA vs. CIN (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP punt
TylerEifert, CIN at MIA (FD $4,700, DK $3,200) – GPP punt
FD($4,500) DK ($4,000)
The Ravens could be thetop defense of Week 16 in all formats, but they’re especially attractive incash games against a Browns offense that’s thrown in the towel for 2019 and isprone to multiple turnovers.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,900)
Pittsburgh’s DST is a juggernaut in DFS and has just two games this season where they’ve not reached double digits. The Jets? They’re still the Jets, possibly even more so now that 2019 is basically “in the tank.”
FD($5,000) DK ($3,500)
You’re getting a discount on DK and the Broncos unit will be happy to face a less formidable opponent, as they’ve been tested the past five weeks up against the Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Bills, and Vikings. They’re playable in cash or GPP.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,700)
The unit has its flaws, but the opponent turns theball over quite a bit. I’m liking the price on both sites and the Seahawks havethe ability to turn this game into more of a defensive slog than the Cards areused to.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,700)
The Saints are a huge bargain on DK at just$2,700 and could see higher ownership with Derrick Henry looking doubtful toplay this week. I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs, and they may even be cashviable despite their recent struggles.
FD($3,800) DK ($2,800)
The Giants could always do some scoring, which means the Redskins can’t be used in cash games, but I like the price and what promises to be low ownership in GPPs. Jump aboard and take the risk.
It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!
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FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)
The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.
FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)
With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.
FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)
Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.
FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)
We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.
FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)
Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.
FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)
Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.
FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)
Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)
We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.
FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)
McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.
FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)
Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.
FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)
Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.
IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)
JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup
DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside
FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)
The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.
FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.
FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)
This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.
FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)
Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.
FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.
It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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FD($7,100) DK ($7,200)
Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.
FD($6,100) DK ($5,500)
Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.
FD($7,000) DK ($6,100)
Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.
FD($6,600) DK ($5,800)
Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,700)
Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.
FD($6,900) DK ($6,700)
Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.
FD($5,200) DK ($4,100)
Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,400)
Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.
FD($5,500) DK ($2,500)
Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona.
JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)
NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP
TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP
FD($3,700) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,600)
The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,700)
Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.
FD($4,700) DK ($3,800)
The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,300)
The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,200)
The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.
Also consider: Colts,Browns
It’s time for Week 9 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win some green!
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It’s a stark reality that most TEs just aren’t that reliable in DFS, but Kelce (65 targets, 42-604-2 this season) is about as automatic for 10+ fantasy points as you can get. He’s got only one game this season (9.8 DK points in Week 8 against the Texans) where he didn’t reach that mark – but he was darn close, and he said he was disgusted with his performance vs. Green Bay. The Vikings have a solid defense but are middle of the roads vs. TEs, and even with one more week of Matt Moore under center for the Chiefs, Kelce is one of the two best cash game plays.
Waller didn’t have a great week last Sunday (he caught just two of eight targets for 11 yards and a touchdown), a result of constant attention from the Houston defense, though his score salvaged what would have been a DFS disaster. The matchup is much better for Week 9 DFS against a Lions defense that ranks 27th against TEs. Waller is still seeing plentiful targets, so he’s about as safe as it gets for cash games.
The Chargers TE is oneof the top GPP plays, as he’s a consensus Top 5 five this week. With 23 targetsover his past three games, Henry is an elite GPP play with multi-TD upsidefacing the Packers.
The veteran TE is a huge bargain on DK but makes for a solid GPP play on both sites. There’s 15-20 point upside, which is actually a pretty high mark this week given the player pool. He’s worth a look in Week 9 DFS because of the matchup and his QB – but Graham’s play this season has been streaky. He’s pretty far down the list in the consensus Week 9 rankings, so his ownership shouldn’t be too high.
Olsen had a solid start with two monster games in his first three weeks, but he’s been held scoreless over his past four appearances. He dealt with a back injury in late September, but hasn’t had a designation in a while and is facing a Titans defense that’s yielded plenty of scores to opposing TEs. He’s an under-the-radar GPP play in a decent matchup.
The main slate ismissing several of the game’s best TEs due to prime-time affairs or bye weeks,so we’re going to have to take chances in GPPs, and Ertz is a huge risk at themoment – with three straight games scoring fewer than 10 DK points and just oneTD on the season. The price has come down on DK to a point that’s reasonable,and his upside makes me comfortable rolling him out in GPPs – even against theBears.
With fellow Titans TE Delanie Walker (ankle) ruled out, Smithdraws another start in Week 9 against the Panthers, and while the matchup istougher than last week, I’m going right back to the well following his 6-78-1 (onseven targets) performance.
Ebron has been a hit-or-miss fantasy option this season,but he’s in a good spot against the Steelers. He’s mired in a timeshare attight end with Jack Doyle, but has at least three targets in every game this seasonand has scored over 10 DK points in three contests – the three he caught TDpasses in. It’s possible he and Doyle will both get more targets in the comingweeks with T.Y. Hilton slated to miss time, even if their upside is limited abit with both TEs healthy.
Griffin has been one of the lone bright spots these pastcouple weeks for the Jets, and he’s coming off his best game of the season, atwo-touchdown performance against the Jaguars (4-66-2). I keep hearing talkthat Griffin will be relegated to a backup role once Chris Herndon returns fromhis hamstring injury, which could be as soon as this week in Miami, but Herndonis still a 50-50 shot to play. If he sits, Griffin is an option.
The rookie tight end hasbeen relatively quiet lately, with just four catches in his last two weeks, butthat could change versus an Oakland defense that’s 28th against TEs. He’s stillgot 15-20 point upside but is a TD-dependent option who’s fine for GPPs.
The Bills have disappointed us as the chalk DST before, but they’ve been serviceable against bad offenses, and this week they have a great home matchup against Washington. They’re relatively safe, have some upside, and Washington has just a 13-point implied total – the lowest of Week 9 – with turnover-prone rookie Dwayne Haskins starting at QB. The Bills DST should rebound in a big way.
Considering the Bears have one of the worst offenses in football and the Eagles defensive unit has been solid, I’m giving the Eagles the green light in cash games this week. Philly’s DST dropped 35 DK points on the Jets in Week 5, and they have similar upside this week against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.
If you’re looking for a cheap defense to play in cashgames, the Broncos face a turnover-prone Browns team at Mile High, where they usuallyplay a lot better as a unit. Give them a look if you’re in a salary crunch foryour lineup’s final spot.
Seattle faces a Bucs team that’s got an implied total of 24.5 points, but Jameis Winston has thrown seven INTs over his past two weeks, making them a great GPP play. The secondary does have some issues with depth – last Sunday they were missing Tre Flowers, Quandre Diggs among others, and saw just a handful of snaps from Bradley McDougald. Those recurring injury problems and the implied total make them a little riskier for cash, but they’re one of my top tournament plays of Week 9.
The Packers were an under-the-radar DST for a while, and now’sthey’re one of the top defenses thanks to stellar play from the entire unit, especiallyZa’Darius Smith and Preston Smith at LB. And they have Darnell Savage back atsafety – which gives them a big boost. I’ll have some Aaron Jones/GB DSTlineups in GPPs.
The Jets defense is a bit of a mess right now with a lot ofbackup players forced into starting roles, but the matchup versus Miami means wehave to consider them.
The Bears DST came into the season a juggernaut, had acouple monster games in weeks 3 and 4, and now is struggling to make a bigsplash because of how poorly the offense is playing. They’re under $3K on DKnow, and the Eagles offensive line is in disarray, so that’s enough for me toconsider them in DFS.
The Browns get to face an untested QB, and they still havean effective pass rush and decent cornerbacks – so I’m buying some shares in Week9. A risk as a road play, but one with plenty of upside.
The Panthers are cheap and their opponent, the Titans, havean implied total under 20 – making this one of the bets matchups of Week 9. Don’toverthink it.
The Dolphins defense has its moments – and so does SamDarnold the Ghost Whisperer. Seriously, though, we can make a case for theDolphins DST even in full tank mode based solely on the awfulness of the Jets.
The ultimate punt, it shouldn’t be hard for this team to make 4x or 5x value at the $1,800 price tag. I like Josh Allen, but he’s far from perfect, and has been known to throw ‘em to the opposition.
Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions
Focused on TEs, here, I will go with Kelce, Ertz and Olsen for a goal of 17.5 at 2x.
Photo of Travis Kelce by: Master Sgt. April Wickes, U.S. Air Force
It’s Week 8 DFS of the NFL season, and I’ve got your Sunday main slate plays for Tight Ends and DSTs to win you some big green in cash and GPP!
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Houston doesn’t normally give up a ton of points to TEs, but Waller is no ordinary TE. And last week Eric Ebron had a nice game against them, so the matchup should be more favorable than the red numbers indicate. I’m going to have massive shares of Waller in cash and GPPs.
Hooper should get a boatload of targets from whomever plays QB for the Falcons this week, and he’s been the best TE in football this season (by a small margin over Darren Waller). Roll with him confidently against a Seattle team that’s been “no great shakes” – as the old-timers said – against TEs. He’s safe for cash and fine for GPPs.
Engram missed a week with an MCL sprain, but he’s apparentlyshed the wrap that was on his left knee – and despite the fact that he didn’t domuch in Sunday’s 27-21 loss to the Cardinals, he’s in a great spot now that he’shealthy and facing a battered Lions defense that’s allowed some big games to tightends. He’s a great option for GPPs – we know his upside and the recency biaswill keep him from high ownership.
Kittle (groin) just got cleared to play in Sunday’s gameagainst the Panthers, so I’m a little worried about cash games but he’s atop target for GPPs. As long as Kittle suits up and there’s no talk of arestriction, we’re getting aboard.
Ertz and the Eagles’ passing attack got stymied by the Cowboys,and the stud tight end ended up being a stinker. Worry not, Ertz fans, becausehe’s still the top dog TE in Philly, not Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles will bemaking use of him against a Buffalo team where they’ll have to throw underneathand trust their big targets in the flats.
Henry’s 2019 season got offto a bad start, but since returning from injury he’s had two big games – one abona fide monster (8-100-2 vs. PIT). The Bears have actually been just okayagainst TEs this year, so Henry is still fully in play against a defense that’sranked No. 22 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Ebron could see a larger chunk of targets if Jack Doyle sitson Sunday, and is coming off a big game where he caught four of five targetsfor 70 yards and a touchdown in a win over Houston. The TD was a nice one, too,as he got his feet in bounds on a short TD pass in the third that helped propelthem to victory. Denver is okay against TEs, but his upside shouldn’t be significantlylimited.
The rookie tight end hasbeen building more consistency in his game but had some mistakes last week againstthe Vikings. We’re hoping for a high-upside outlier (like Week 1) in a matchupagainst the Giants, who will have trouble containing this talented pass catcherand athlete.
Brate takes on some moretargets with O.J. Howard out Sunday, which propels him into GPP territory at apretty low price on DK. It’s a lot on FanDuel, but he’s still in play forlarge-field GPPs – he’s got two TDs in his last three games and Howard’stargets, while minimal, should be heading his way.
Gerald Everett, LAR vs. CIN(FD $6,100, DK $4,300)
Darren Fells, HOU vs. OAKIND (FD $5,100, DK $3,400)
Jordan Akins, HOU vs. OAK (FD$4,900), DK $2,800)
Ben Watson, NE vs. CLE (FD$4,900, DK $3,000)
Foster Moreau, OAK at HOU(FD $4,900, DK $2,700)
The Pats remain the best defense in football by a large marginand get a team that coughs it up quite a bit. Do we really need to tell you toplay this unit in cash games, GPPs, or basically any format? The cream of the crop– and the price is still lower than what it could be.
As long as they don’t jump out to a huge lead and spend the final quarter or so in prevent, the Rams make an excellent cash game play facing the struggling Bengals. The Patriots are still a much better play at the same price on FD, but the $500 price difference on DK makes them worth a look if you’re locked into all the other lineup components and the Pats just can’t fit
.
It’s approaching Halloween, and Jacksonville can be prettyscary – especially if you’re already seeing ghosts. The Jags at home present aperfect GPP opportunity in a week where the Pats and Rams will take a good chunkof the ownership. The Jets produce just 142.2 passing yards per game, and rank 32ndin total offense this season.
The Bears are fine for GPPs because they have massiveupside facing the bumbling Chargers, but I have an inkling that Austin Ekeleris the magic man for them this week. The Bears give up a lot of passes to RBsand sometimes can get caught in over-pursuit, where Ekeler can make his mark inspace. I’m not going to freak out if you roll them out in cash, but I’d preferthe Pats and Rams. The price is certainly fair on both sites.
The Bucs turn it over a lot and the Titans have a solidsecondary. I could see 3 INTs and a pick six for this defense, and that’s the kindof upside we need to win GPPs. Just play these guys at this affordable price.
The49ers are loaded with talent and have played extremely well. Facing thePanthers and the versatility of fantasy stud Christian McCaffrey is a toughtask, but you can’t argue the 49ers defense hasn’t delivered this season. They’rea bit expensive, but fine for GPPs.
The Bills defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing aPhilly offense that’s missing a spark. The offensive line is dealing withinjuries and Carson Wentz looks off this year. If the Bills can pressure him,they might be looking at some big plays and enough sacks to keep them relevant inthe GPP discussion.
The Seahawks are a prime punt on DK at $2,800. They aren’t thedefensive juggernaut of the past, but even they can make some stuff happenagainst the Falcons, who have played sloppy football this season and may be missingMatt Ryan. If they have both Ziggy Ansah and Bradley McDougald for Sunday, I’dbe more interested in taking the chance in GPPs where they should be prettylow-owned on FD at the high price.
The Chargers are dirt cheap and facing a team thatstruggles to score. If they can get Melvin Ingram back this week, they are aneven better play. I keep coming back to Mitchell Trubisky, though. The dude isnot a great QB, and the Chargers have Joey Bosa to wreak havoc him and the underachievingbackfield.
The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and they turned it over a lot last week (seven times!). But this is about defense, and the Bucs could have some under-the-radar potential in Week 8 due to the Titans’ inability to pass protect. They are risky, and the Titans have played better – but Ryan Tannehill is still Ryan Tannehill, so there’s upside here.
Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. Do not let the red crosses keep you from choosing these high-volume pass catchers from the Giants and the top WR on the Lions. They will see upwards of 30 targets between them in this game, so reaching 17 catches seems like its very doable.
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