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NFL DFS: Thanksgiving Edition

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

As we gear up for Week 13 of the NFL season, one of the best DFS slates of the year has arrived: Thanksgiving. Despite three games being much less than a traditional Sunday, the player pool is filled with enticing options at each position.

Be sure to use our proprietary NFL projections to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)

Pacing the NFL with a whopping 32.7 points per game, Jared Goff has led this Lions offense to new heights this season. Surrounded by a plethora of talent at every position, Goff has entered Most Valuable Player conversations amongst the league’s best. Playing behind a stout offensive line that has only allowed 22 sacks through 11 games, Goff ranks fourth in protection rate amongst qualified quarterbacks, leading to the most efficient season of his career. Goff ranks first in yards per attempt, second in completion percentage, second in deep ball completion percentage, and third in red zone completion percentage. In a matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that has a mere 21.8% blitz rate and the third highest average depth of target allowed, Goff and the Lions offense are poised to have a big day.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000 DK / $8,000 FD)

Despite missing half of Miami’s games thus far through 12 weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has been having quite the season. Having won three in a row, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins back into the playoff hunt. While the matchup is far from appealing on paper with the Packers ranked 4th DVOA against the pass and the cold weather conditions, Tagovailoa’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback on this NFL slate. While the Packers don’t do anything exceptionally well or notably struggle in a particular area, Miami has an edge in player personnel, especially if Jaire Alexander is unable to play.

Thanks to the offensive play-calling of Mike McDaniel and a supporting cast of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Tagovailoa has averaged 255.5 yards per game since returning from injury, throwing for an average of 2.2 touchdowns. Moreover, he has averaged 34 passing attempts per game during that stretch, including a whopping 40 attempts last week, despite winning the game by 19 points. Make no mistake about it – this is one of the premier offenses in the NFL when Tagovailoa is under center. In their last three games, Miami is 3-0 and have averaged 30.33 points per game, while averaging 27.5 points per game in the six full games from their starting quarterback, versus 10 points per game with Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle under center. Expect Tagovailoa to get the ball out to his playmakers early and often.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Love, Caleb Williams

Running Backs

Devon Achane ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD)

Making his mark with an immediate impact in his rookie season, Devon Achane has quickly become a household name amongst the fantasy football community. Known for his big-play ability and exceptional speed, Achane fits this Miami offense like a glove. Despite the Packers’ defense holding rushing attacks to 4.3 yards per carry, 112.7 rushing yards per game, and 10 touchdowns, it is Achane’s work in the passing game that gives him one of, if not the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Essentially operating as the Dolphins WR2/WR3 this season, Achane ranks second in target share amongst running backs, third in receiving yards, and second in receptions. Sporting an absurd 44.4% route participation rate, Achane is poised for another big game, where he has posted over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five since Tagovailoa has returned, including four or more targets and three or more receptions during that span.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD)

If you are looking for a pivot to Achane at the running back position, look no further than Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming into this one as a 10-point home favorite, the Lions’ running back duo most certainly will be of interest. However, their level of importance on this slate relies upon David Montgomery’s health. At the time of writing, Montgomery was a non-participant in practice, leaving his status for Thursday’s game in question. If Montgomery is eventually ruled out, or is limited in any fashion, Gibbs immediately becomes a top priority.

Although he conceives a sizable amount of work to Montgomery in a shared backfield, Gibbs has made a true impact in the NFL’s best offense, despite the lack of opportunity compared to other teams’ featured running backs. Gibbs has only received 12 or more carries in two of the team’s last five games, while having a mere 51.8% snap share on the season, but he makes the most of the chances he gets. Gibbs sits fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and has 11 total touchdowns, 10 of which came on the ground. Moreover, he is third in yards per carry with 5.8, second in breakaway runs with 14, and first in explosive runs rating.

Josh Jacobs ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

While the majority of the field will prioritize the first two running backs listed here, and rightfully so, Josh Jacobs make for an excellent tournament play. With MarShawn Lloyd struggling with injuries and AJ Dillon on injured reserve since the beginning of the year, Jacobs has gotten all the touches he can handle in his first season with Green Bay. Jacobs has already eclipsed 200 carries on the season, ranking fourth in the NFL. Moreover, the Packers are executing over 30 run plays per game, good for sixth in the NFL. This has led to Jacobs being third in total rush yards, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry and posting eight touchdowns. If you are feeling uneasy about the Packers wide receiver carousel, the weather conditions in this one, or a combination of both, then Jacobs is your guy.

Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

While he is unlikely to lead the position in scoring when all three games have finished, Rico Dowdle has a ton of upside in this one. Since their bye week, the Cowboys have essentially turned the keys over to Dowdle over Ezekiel Elliott, and the former has certainly outperformed the latter. Despite the negative game scripts the Cowboys are often in due to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, Dowdle continues to make the best of a bad situation. He has now had double-digit carries in four straight games, including three or more targets in each appearance during that span. Moreover, the matchup against a Giants defense that has been decimated on the ground makes for an intriguing conversation surrounding the Cowboys lead running back. On the season, New York has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, including a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry. While he is not in the same category of the top running backs on this slate, Dowdle can make a case to be the best overall play in the mid range of the pricing grid.

Honorable Mentions: David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)

After a phenomenal season just a year ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up right where he left off. While there are many skilled players in one of, if not the best offense in the NFL, St. Brown is the heartbeat to it all. Not only does he lead the team in almost every category, but he sits fourth in the league in receptions, eighth in yards, and second in receiving touchdowns. Moreover, he leads the entire NFL with 49 catches resulting in a first down. While Jaylon Johnson has been having an amazing season for the Bears, St. Brown is the clear top option on the slate and is matchup-proof.

Pivot: CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,600 FD)

Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

If you cannot play St. Brown, there are plenty of other ways to get exposure to the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. Jameson Williams missed two weeks after being suspended but has not missed a beat since coming back. Across those last three games, Williams has amassed a 12-241-1 line on 18 targets. Moreover, he ranks 4th in the NFL in receiving yards per target, meaning he does not need a ton of looks to be productive. Williams has an average depth of target of 14.1, a 34.5% air yards share, and ranks third amongst qualified wide receivers with 2.57 fantasy points per target.

Pivot: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) and Rome Odunze ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)

It is no surprise that the Bears offense has improved in the last two weeks versus the early stages of their season. Following the firing of Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown has taken over offensive coordinator duties for one of the most intriguing offensive depth charts in the NFL. Brown, who spent three seasons under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, has yet to get a win in his new role, but this offense passes the eye test. While all three Bears wide receivers have seen an uptick in volume, most notably Rome Odunze, it is Keenan Allen that is a top option for Caleb Williams in this matchup. After a slow start to the season, Allen came alive last week, posting a 9-86-1 line on 15 targets, operating primarily out of the slot. However, Odunze also ran his fair share of routes out of the slot, slightly behind Allen.

With all three wide receivers seeing over 82% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, there is plenty of opportunity to pick on a matchup against the Lions’ slot coverage. Amik Robertson is Detroit’s primary slot corner, playing nearly 50% of the snaps and 90% of those out of the slot. This season, Robertson has allowed 1.44 fantasy points per target, including a 59.6% catch rate, leading the Lions to rank 26th in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers.

Honorable Mentions: Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD)

While he is far from a top option in an offense boasting the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Smith has been remarkable since Tagovailoa returned from injury. Over his last five games, Smith has three or more receptions in each appearance, having eclipsed 45 yards in four straight games. Moreover, he has a whopping 15 receptions and 188 yards in his last two, where he also caught three touchdowns. With the Packers having a low 20.3% blitz rate, Miami won’t be forced for extra help on their offensive line, leaving room for Smith to run more routes. The Packers rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends, giving up a near 20% target rate and 1.67 yards per route ran.

Sam LaPorta ($4,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

Despite the falloff from a remarkable rookie season, it is hard to blame Sam LaPorta for his personal shortcomings, rather than to look at just how good everyone else in this offense has been. When your offense has two elite running backs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, you won’t be a top option every single time your team takes the field. However, LaPorta can easily be the highest scoring tight end of the slate, which you’ll need. In Detroit stacks, it will be hard to overlook a player that averages 2.49 fantasy points per target at a scarce position. Moreover, the Bears defense will have their hands full doubling St. Brown on the outside, similarly to how they did to Justin Jefferson last week, leading T.J. Hockenson to explode for seven receptions and 114 yards.

Honorable Mentions: Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson

DST Rankings

  • Dallas Cowboys ($3,100 DK / $4,100 FD)
  • Detroit Lions ($3,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
  • Green Bay Packers ($2,800 DK / $4,200 FD) and Miami Dolphins ($2,700 DK / $3,900 FD)
  • New York Giants ($2,800 DK / $3,700 FD)
  • Chicago Bears ($2,300 DK / $3,500 FD)
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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Lions at Packers

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Davante Adams
  3. T.J. Hockenson
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. D’Andre Swift
  6. Jared Goff
  7. Robert Tonyan
  8. Jamaal Williams
  9. Randall Cobb
  10. Quintez Cephus
  11. Amon-Ra St. Brown
  12. Marques Valdez-Scantling
  13. A.J. Dillon
  14. Packers DST
  15. Allen Lazard
  16. Mason Crosby
  17. Trinity Benson
  18. Austin Seibert
  19. Lions DST
  20. Marcedes Lewis
  21. Daniel Fells
  22. Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLSports Betting

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

ddwessels@att.net
written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Team Win Totals

DraftKings Promo

Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.

Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.

Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.

Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.

49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.

Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!

Week 1 Lines

DraftKings Promo

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.  

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1?  This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1.  Indy probably overvalued at this point.

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line.  Take it at 3 maybe.  This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff.  I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5.  Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much.  This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn.  Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy.  Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points.  Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF.  Too many weapons for Arizona.  Game will be close enough.  

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place.  Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints.  Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd.  Let’s see if the line moves.  If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog.  It’s a stay away for now.

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay.  Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5.  Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.

Team Win Totals

Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule.  Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles).  14-2 last year.  Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU).  Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU.  Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).

Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division).  People falling asleep on them.  Great defensive front.  They get their QB back.  Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.

Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division.  Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6.  Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push.  Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.

Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?).  Under is a good bet here.  Schedule is tough.  Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.

Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it.  Won 4 of last 5 games last year.  3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing.  Pass rush should be good.  Improved OLine.  Good OC in Pat Shurmur.  Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE.  I believe in Drew Locke.

Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.

Super Bowl Winners

Ravens at 7 to 1 –  Best team in the NFL.  14-2 last year.  4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric.  Absolutely loaded up  in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year).  Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).  

Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft.  Defense is suspect but these are solid odds.  I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.

Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB.  Juju healthy.  BigBen healthy.  Stout defense.  Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington).  Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.

Division Winners

Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency.  Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE.  May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated.  And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old.  Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South.  I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.

Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year.  Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there.  No help for ARod on offense.  Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson.  Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle.  15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s

Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did.  Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.

Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team.  Niners get almost everyone back.  Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw.  Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU.  Team is loaded and getting value at +115.  Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Division Winners

Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.

Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.

Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.

Team Win Totals

Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5

Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9

I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!

Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!

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Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Pick Management
written by Pick Management

Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back to give you all his best Conference Championship plays. Two sides, a teaser and player prop are going to be above-average wins today, which means you make money!

Take Kansas City Chiefs -7 versus Tennessee Titans (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

6.5 Point Teaser- Kansas City Chiefs -.5 / San Francisco 49’ers -1 (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

I’m going to ride with the favorites this weekend as we have two exciting Conference Championship matchups. Kansas City and San Francisco have had their ups and downs, but the adjustments made over the season make me believe it’s the year for these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl. 

Last week, Kansas City had the second greatest comeback in recent memory (The first is the Patriots Super Bowl win over Atlanta). Watching Houston’s 24-0 lead evaporate in minutes was incredible, it was such a stellar performance by KC. This shows that an above-average offense with a great coach is a pretty unstoppable force against teams with obvious weaknesses like Houston. It wasn’t just that performance, it’s been the year as a whole – especially the last seven games of the year. Since Kansas City’s loss to Tennessee: they have covered seven, pushed once, and they have really punished teams. In that time, they have held two teams to just three points, and one to nine. The defense has really stepped up, and that will be a problem for Ryan Tannehill who has had just seven completions in the last three games. The Titans have made it by on the back of Derrick Henry, but that will stop in this game. The Kansas City offense is such a juggernaut that the Titans are going to have to throw the ball. I see Kansas City getting out to an early double-digit lead, and you can’t just run the ball to come back from that. Home teams in the AFC Conference Championship games are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS the last 13 years. 

To me, this is just Kansas City’s year. The Titans win over the Chiefs earlier this year had some hijinx in it, and Pat Mahomes was just returning for injury. I like that the Titans beat them earlier this year because I think it gives them a false sense of security against Kansas City. Take Kansas City -7 and in the teaser -.5.

Take San Francisco 49’ers -7.5 versus Green Bay Packers (6:40 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)

Did you know that both Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers were both backups for three years to Hall of Famers? Did you also know that Aaron Rodgers had his Super Bowl win in his sixth season, and that this is Jimmy G’s sixth season? I really think this game is set up to be a changing of the guard in the NFL. I believe that Rodgers is on his way out as a top quarterback in the league, and Garppolo is going to be the one to take his place. 

Somehow, the Packers have put together 14 regular-season wins, but they simply don’t have the talent to keep up with San Francisco. To me, the Packers have just three above-average players who can impact the game: Rodgers, Jones, and Adams. That just won’t be enough when facing a team that is above-average on both sides of the ball, and who have the better coach. San Francisco is a team of studs, and I think they do what they please to the Packers. The mix of an explosive offense and stout defense will be too much to overcome for Rodgers. The Packers struggled last week against Seattle, who is nowhere near as good as the 49ers.

I think San Francisco gets a double-digit win as Jimmy G has settled into being a playoff quarterback. As he continues to relax, the offense will only improve. Rodgers is going to have to put this game on his back, and I think this time it’ll be too much to carry.

Derrick Henry Rush Yards OVER 109.5 -134

I like Derrick Henry to go over his rushing yards total this game, and he will get most of it done in the first half. The one vulnerability I see Kansas City having is that they don’t have the best rush defense (it’s not the worst, either). The KC rush defense is pedestrian, allowing 129.44 rush yards per game at home. The beginning of this game will be competitive, and that is when Henry gets his yards. I think he may break a big run too, which he does in most games. As this game goes on, the Chiefs are going to get a substantial lead. The Titans will have to get away from the run, but I like Henry to rack up some yards early. Take Derrick Henry Rush Yards over 109.5 (-134).

(Odds provided by DraftKings.)

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Week 17 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kelce and Company

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

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Week 17 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAC

FD($7,500)          DK ($7,000)

With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYG

FD($6,400)          DK ($4,900)

While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.

Week 17 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Austin Hooper, ATL at TB

FD($6,000)         DK ($5,800) 

The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.

Darren Waller, OAK at DEN

FD($6,200)          DK ($5,400)

Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.

Hunter Henry, LAC at KC

FD($6,000)         DK ($4,500) 

Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.

Week 17 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

O.J.Howard, TB vs. ATL

FD ($5,700)        DK ($4,200) 

Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.

KadenSmith, NYG vs. PHI

FD($5,300)         DK ($3,700) 

The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.

Additional Week 17 DFS GPP andpunt options:

TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP

JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only

JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt

NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt

Week 17 DFS DST Cash GamePlays 

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. PIT)

FD($4,900)         DK ($3,100) 

The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.

Indianapolis Colts (IND at JAC)

FD ($4,800)        DK ($3,200) 

I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.

Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills

Week 17 DFS DST GPP Plays

New England Patriots (NE vs.MIA)

FD($4,700)         DK ($4,300) 

The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.

New Orleans Saints (NO at CAR)

FD($5,000)         DK ($4,000) 

The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.

Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

Week 17 DFS DST PuntPlays 

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. NYG)

FD($4,800)         DK ($3,000) 

They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.

Denver Broncos (DEN vs. OAK)

FD($4,600)         DK ($3,300) 

Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.

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Week 15 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: More Than a Little Kittle

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 15 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 15 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

George Kittle, SF vs. ATL

FD($7,200)         DK ($6,200) 

Kittle is the number one fantasy TE this week in cash games, and he’s viable in GPPs too, given his upside. With 60-754-4 on the season and averaging six receptions and 90.3 yards per game over his last four games, it’s obvious that Jimmy G loves him — and he’s what you’re looking for as your top TE  in cash games.

Darren Waller, OAK vs. JAC

FD($6,200)          DK ($5,500)

Waller had 6-72-0 and a fumble last week but remains DerekCarr’s top target. He’s a cash game staple every week but hasn’t broken out fora monster game in a while. The price is still very affordable.

Week 15 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. DEN

FD($7,300)          DK ($6,500)

Kelce isn’t cheap, but he brings massive upsideto the table and is essentially matchup-proof because of the many ways Patrick Mahomescan get him the ball. He’s a consensus Top 3 fantasy TE every week, and becausehe’s expensive he usually doesn’t draw too much ownership in GPPs.

Zach Ertz, PHI at WAS

FD($6,700)          DK ($6,000)

The price has jumped up on both sites, mainly because ofhis big game in Week 14 and the injury to Alshon Jeffery, but we still mustconsider Ertz as a GPP play, especially facing the Redskins. He had 5-54-0 inWeek 1 against them, but I think he’ll find the end zone this time around.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CAR

FD($6,200)         DK ($5,000) 

We saw Jared Cook score two big TDs early last week againstthe 49ers, so I’m not counting out Hooper despite the difficult matchup on paper.With Calvin Ridley out of commission and this likely to be a negative game scriptfor the Falcons, I can see Hooper drawing 8-10 targets or more. The price hasdropped too.

Week 15 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

TylerHigbee, LAR at DAL

FD ($5,700)        DK ($3,900) 

Higbeeshould be a popular target for Jared Goff this week facing the Cowboys, whohave a banged up linebacking corps and will struggle in covering the middle of thefield. We’ve seen two huge games in a row (7-107-1 and 7-116-0) and Higbee isstill a great bargain at just $3,900 on DK.

O.J.Howard, TB at DET

FD($5,700)         DK ($3,500) 

Howard gets a decent matchup against the Lions and could seeextra volume with Mike Evans (hamstring) done for the rest of the season. He doesn’thave the upside of the top TEs, but 10-15 DK points for $3,500 could work – andthe chances of him catching a TD really go up without Evans on the field.

IanThomas, CAR vs. SEA

FD ($5,300)        DK ($3,100) 

The pricing on FD is fair, but Thomas is still a massivebargain on DK, where he’s just $3,100.The matchup is a good one, as the Seahawkshave struggled to contain TEs this season, and we saw last week how much KyleAllen relies on Thomas without Greg Olsen.

Additional Week 15 DFS GPP andpunt options:

HunterHenry, LAC vs. MIN (FD $6,400, DK $5,200) – Risky and expensive GPP play

NoahFant, DEN at KC (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) – GPP only (He’s playing)

DallasGoedert, PHI at WAS (FD $5,700, DK $4,300) – GPP only

Week 15 DFS DST Cash GamePlays 

New England Patriots (NE atCIN)

FD($5,000)         DK ($4,000) 

The Patriots might havea little extra steam in their engines this week after the scandalous film crewinvestigation, and there’s no arguing this is a talented unit who can dominateagainst bad teams – the Bengals included.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI at WAS)

FD($4,900)         DK ($3,400) 

The Eagles defenseshould be up to the task against a Redskins team just scraping through the lastfew games of 2019. This one could get ugly, even if the Eagles offense doesn’t clicklike it should.

Week 15 DFS DST GPP Plays

San Francisco 49ers (SF vs.ATL)

FD($4,500)         DK ($3,800) 

You’re getting a discount on FD and the Falcons are not the offensivejuggernaut that the Saints are. I’m not worried about a repeat of last week,and I’ll be locking the 49ers into a lot of my GPP entries.

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. CHI)

FD($4,200)         DK ($3,000) 

We saw what they did against the Bears in Week1, and I’m not convinced Mitch

Trubisky isn’t dreading the kind of pressure thePackers DST can bring. The price is more than fair on both sites for the upsidethis team brings.

Week 15 DFS DST PuntPlays 

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at DAL)

FD($3,600)         DK ($2,900) 

The Rams are a huge bargain this week against aDallas Cowboys team that seems to have given up. I wouldn’t be playing them in cashgams, but I’m fine with shares in GPPs because the Cowboys may not have a planfor Aaron Donald and these greedy, aggressive corners.

Miami Dolphins (MIA at NYG)

FD($3,700)         DK ($2,600) 

This is about as low as I’d like to go in GPPs, but the reality ofthe Giants woes makes the Dolphins a unit we have to consider. It’s a team thatcontinues to get better and Eli Manning and the Giants aren’t really playingfor anything but their pride.

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Week 14 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kittle and Crew

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 14 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

George Kittle, SF at NO

FD ($6,700)         DK ($5,900) 

The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.

Darren Waller, OAK vs. TE

FD ($6,200)          DK ($5,800)

With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.

Jack Doyle, IND at TB

FD($6,300)          DK ($4,600)

Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.

Week 14 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC at NE

FD($7,100)          DK ($6,200)

We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.

Hunter Henry, LAC at JAC

FD ($6,400)         DK ($5,100) 

Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. BUF

FD ($6,600)         DK ($5,600) 

Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CAR

FD ($6,600)         DK ($6,000) 

Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ vs. MIA

FD($5,600)         DK ($4,100) 

We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.

Week 14 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

VanceMcDonald, PIT at ARI

FD ($5,800)        DK ($4,300) 

McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,400)         DK ($4,000) 

Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DET

FD ($4,800)        DK ($4,400) 

Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.

Additional Week 14 DFS GPP andpunt options:

IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)

JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup

DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside

Week 14 DFS DST Cash GamePlays 

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. WAS

FD($5,000)         DK ($4,000) 

The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT at ARI)

FD($4,300)         DK ($3,500) 

The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.

Week 14 DFS DST GPP Plays

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. DET)

FD ($4,800)         DK ($3,800) 

This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.

Cleveland Browns (CLE vs. CIN)

FD($4,600)         DK ($3,600) 

Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.

Week 14 DFS DST PuntPlays 

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC atJAC)

FD($4,600)         DK ($2,800)

Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. TB)

FD($4,000)         DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.

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Week 13 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: A Kelce Dose

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 13 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays 

Travis Kelce, KC vs. OAK

FD($7,100)          DK ($7,200)

Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.

Darren Waller, OAK at KC

FD($6,100)          DK ($5,500)

Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.

Week 13 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

George Kittle, SF at BAL

FD($7,000)         DK ($6,100) 

Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.

Hunter Henry, LAC at DEN

FD($6,600)         DK ($5,800) 

Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. SF

FD($6,500)         DK ($5,700) 

Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.

Zach Ertz, PHI at MIA

FD($6,900)         DK ($6,700) 

Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at MIA

FD($5,200)         DK ($4,100) 

Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at CIN

FD($5,600)         DK ($4,200) 

Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. WAS

FD($5,100)          DK ($4,400)

Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.

Week 13 DFS Tight End PuntPlays 

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,000)         DK ($3,400) 

Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.

TylerHigbee, LAR at ARI

FD($5,500)         DK ($2,500) 

Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona. 

Additional Week 13 DFS GPP andpunt options:

JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP

JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)

NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP

TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP

Week 13 DFS DST Cash Game Plays 

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT vs.CLE)

FD($3,700)         DK ($3,500) 

The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI at MIA)

FD($5,000)         DK ($3,600) 

The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.

Week 13 DFS DST GPP Plays

New York Jets (NYJ at CIN)

FD($4,900)         DK ($3,700) 

Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.

Carolina Panthers (CAR vs. WAS)

FD($4,700)         DK ($3,800) 

The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.

Green Bay Packers (GB at NYG)

FD($4,600)         DK ($3,600) 

This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.

Week 13 DFS DST PuntPlays 

Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC vs.TB)

FD($4,400)         DK ($3,300) 

The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.

Los Angeles Rams (LAR at ARI)

FD($4,100)         DK ($3,200)

The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.

Also consider: Colts,Browns

Photo of Kelce by Master Sgt. April Wickes, U.S. Air Force

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NFLPremium

Week 12 NFL DFS Sunday Night Showdown Preview with DFS Pro David Jones

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Week 12 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones took down the Week 8 Monday Night Showdown which is the fourth time he has won it the past five contests.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here

I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me, I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys. 

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary. 

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.

The NFL DFS Week 12 Sunday Night Showdown Picks

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

I am going to play the best player on the field tonight at MVP. I know San Fran defense is legit but Rogers is going to show up for this game. I am playing the narrative on this NFL DFS showdown slate. Rodgers is from the Bay Area and great up a 49ers fan. He has all his weapons tonight and he tends to show up on nationally televised games.

Pivot 1: Jimmy Garoppollo: 49ers QB, the offense runs through him and he has looked sharp lately

Pivot 1: Devante Adams: It’s time for his breakout. As long as that nagging toe injury doesn’t get him off the field early, he should be in for a big NFL DFS night.

Pivot 3: Tevin Coleman: The 49ers should want to keep Rodgers off the field by running the ball. Coleman is the lead back.

Hunch MVP: Jamaal Williams: I think that Aaron Jones’s struggles tonight forces more dump offs to Williams.

Flex Options:

Emmanuel Sanders: I like him in prime time

Deebo Samuels: Consecutive 100-yard games. Should be heavily targeted here again

Aaron Jones: Green Bay lead back with a tough matchup

George Kittle: He is going to be back on the field but he is not 100%. Look for redone targets, but not as much yardage as we are used to seeing with a healthy Kittle

Raheem Mostert: 49ers RB2, but should be very involved in the run game to keep Rodgers off the field.

Ross Dwelley: I know Kittle is back, but Dwelley will still be in the game plan. I love what he has been doing lately and so does the San Fran offensive coordinator

Chase McLaughlin: 49ers Kicker

Mason Crosby: Green Bay Kicker

Kendrick Bourne: He has three touchdowns the past three games. We can’t ignore that. Jimmy G likes to spread it around.

Jimmy Graham: He has the toughest mat up on the board against the number one defense against the TE

Geronimo Allison: If anything happens to Adams, Green Bay receivers are going to have to step up

Marques Valdez-Scantling: Two goose eggs in a row is pretty bad. He should have low ownership because of these. I will take a few punts on him

Allen Lazard: Never really does much, but he is starting. Worth a couple darts if you are making multiple lines. Price is right

Listed in order of preference, with price factored in.

I did my research on FanDuel today.

Punts:

  1. Jake Kumerow
  2. Dante Pettis
  3. Marquis Goodwin

Click here to play the Thursday MonkeyKnifeFight.com Pick. Play this pick and get a 100 percent bonus!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS.

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