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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh

Brandon C. Williams
written by Brandon C. Williams

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

This one feels a bit strange to me. Washington is 5-7 on the season and for the most part the offense has been largely inept but they sit at 2-2 since the return of Alex Smith and in the two games where he lost he put up 325 and 390 yard respectively. By no stretch do I think they will win and it was the easiest 4 game stretch that you could even have for a team. I just see signs of life from Washington and the Steelers tend to play down or up to their level of competition. You should largely be able to get who you want today with the highest price being Ben Roethlisberger at 15,900.

Chalk: Benny Snell $11,400

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $15,900

Contrarian #1: Terry McLaurin $13,200

Contrarian #2: Diontae Johnson $14,100

Contrarian #3: JD Mckissic $7,800

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

Vegas: 43.5 Point total Steelers: –6.5

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, 10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to expect a good deal of defense and with Washington’s play style, Pittsburgh’s defense, and questionable offensive players I’m not going to argue with them. With the expectation that Pittsburgh will control this game Benny Snell is my lean for the big chalk on the day but I think it will be close. For Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, all of the Steelers receivers, and even the Steelers defense to be within a couple of percentage points so going captain will be tricky on that side.

My receiver’s lean for Pittsburgh is Diontae Johnson just due to the target volume over the last few weeks, but if you feel a certain way about Claypool or Juju I won’t talk you out of it. Where I think the captain play will be most interesting is on the Washington side of the ball. Terry McLaurin is an absolute monster and he has been QB proof in his short career. He has seen no less that seven target in any game this season and if the script matches Vegas, I don’t see 10-12 targets being hard to reach.

JD Mckissic is one that I know I have to explain. If you give me the finger and go Antonio Gibson I won’t blame you. Pass catching backs have had a measure of success against the Steelers and Ron Rivera clearly favors JD in passing down situations. It also helps that Alex Smith has the lowest average depth of target in the league. In both games where he was playing from behind he targeted Mckissic 14 and 15 targets with 17.2 and 17.9 DraftKings points in each. If you think Washington will trail you should at least consider JD in one or two of your builds.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both defenses and both kickers are firmly in play with a 43.5 point total and Pittsburgh’s tendency to play down to their level of competition.

Washington: Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, Defense, Dontell Inman, Dustin Hopkins

Pittsburgh: Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Shuster, Eric Ebron, Defense, Matthew Wright, Ray Ray Mcloud (if using Steelers Defense)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs:

Before we get into captains we all know the usual suspects for the Chiefs so if I don’t get them all in here it’s just due to only using 5 captain picks. If you have a lean for another Chief go for it. It just doesn’t do me or you any good to just list all of them every showdown. I’m trying to get a little different so that you can hopefully take a GPP down. I need some Phillip Lindsay Clarification as well as news of

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $19,800

Pivot: Drew Lock $13,800

Contrarian #1:Travis Kelce $16,200

Contrarian #2: LeVeon Bell $3,600 (If we see CEH limited or out)

Contrarian #3: Noah Fant $7,500

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Notes:

Vegas: 51.5 Point total Chiefs: -13

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, light breeze

Most of us are expecting the same thing, the Chiefs to get up big and control the game. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are clearly great captain options so I’m not going too deep with KC. What we can do as far as a pivot goes is go with Drew Lock and what will likely be a 50 pass night for $6,000 less at half of the ownership. Lock is by no means a “good” QB right now but the garbage time could possibly be a full half so paring him with Noah Fant, Jerry Juedy, or Tim Patrick is a leverage position that I am going to make use of. I need to get some clarification on Clyde Edwards-Helair‘s status but given his illness (stomach virus) if the Chiefs get up big they may opt to not risk wearing him out which is steering me towards LeVeon Bell in a few captain spots. We all like to give Bell a hard time but he still looks like the same back that he has always been it is just the fact that he has been in bad situations or in the case of the Chiefs buried behind CEH. In the same way I thought CEH was a slate breaker in their last showdown I could very well see the same scenario with Bell tonight. I’m not really going to entertain a scenario where the Broncos get ahead when we are talking about script but if you were inclined to use a Broncos running back I would lean Melvin Gordon. For some reason people still talk about Lindsay being the receiving back because he’s small. He’s not, he never has been. He can not catch the ball and that goes back to his time playing for University of Colorado Boulder.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as the Chiefs defense, Lock gets wild and the special teams is always a threat If you choose to use the Chiefs defense I’d recommend using Tyreek Hill over Kelce as captain because you will double dip on a return score. I know I have Tyreek down here but as I made clear. The big three are always captain viable I just chose Kelce for little salary savings.

Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, Brandon McManus, Royce Freeman( if Lindsay out or expected to be limited)

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill***(see above), Defense, Sammy Watkins, Harrison Butker, Darrell Williams (If CEH out), Demarcus Robinson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers:

Alright folks, before you take a look at any of the information that I’m about to give you be mindful of just how much can change between now and kickoff. This can not under any circumstances be a set and forget day. Additionally, I have heard news that JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram are eligible to return from the Covid-19 list BUT the information originated from Ian Rappaport and I have yet to get this information from the Ravens themselves. For those of you who do not know, I do not trust the accuracy of Ian’s reporting, he is more interested in being first than being correct.

Chalk: Benny Snell $13,200

Pivot: Chase Claypool $15,600

Contrarian #1: Gus Edwards $9,300

Contrarian #2: Robert Griffin III $12,600

Contrarian #3: Justice Hill $3,300 (If Dobbins and Ingram sit)/ Juju Smith-Shuster $14,400 (If they play)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Notes:

Vegas: 41.5 Point total Pittsburgh: -10

This seems big to me even with all of the people missing for Baltimore. Divisional games in the AFC North are rarely blowouts and are almost always low scoring. I don’t see a game that I’m expecting the under to hit to spread out enough to make that -10 work for the Steelers.

Weather: Mid’s 30’s and minimal wind

Baltimore is a flat out mess right now and I can’t really blame Vegas for putting them as 10 point dogs in what looks to be an incredibly messy divisional matchup. In that regard I’m not surprised Benny Snell looks to be the massive chalk with the absence of James Conner. If for some reason you’re playing cash that is where I would start. I see a few different options for a pivot from the Snell chalk. First would be Chase Claypool. This guy has been an absolute monster in his first year and has seen no less than 8 targets in any of the last four games including five for 42 and a touchdown on nine targets against a healthy Ravens team in week 8 and the Ravens are much more vulnerable right now. If Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins end up confirmed out I think Gus Edwards will actually end up being the chalk but at this point we are up in the air and Gus smashed the Steelers averaging 5.4 yards per carry for 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries on a 32% snap share. Another option is Win Daily’s favorite guy Robert Griffin III. I’m not saying he’s Lamar Jackson but he is a capable, experienced backup that has the mobility to run the same style of offense so they won’t be sacrificing parts of their playbook when he is on the field, and if we are being honest with ourselves, there won’t be a passing drop-off from Jackson to Griffin this season. Lamar’s passing struggles have been well documented. My final play is based of people being out. If Dobbins and Ingram sit I am going to have a healthy amount Justice Hill. Reason being if Baltimore gets down big it won’t be Gus on the field, it will be Hill who is much better at catching the ball so I can run a Steelers heavy lineup and run it back with a Justin Tucker and Justice Hill for a 4-2 build on DraftKings. If every running back is a go I want to pivot over to the Pittsburg Side and take a shot on what might be a shockingly low owned Juju Smith-Shuster. No need to get in depth, Juju has largely disappointed for what was expected of him but his ceiling is MASSIVE and he might not get over 6% at captain today with all of the potential value captains.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as both defenses. It’s a strange week so most of the flex plays could change on a moments notice.

Steelers: Defense, Dionte Johnson, Eric Ebron, Chris Boswell, Anthony McFarland Jr., Ben Roethlisberger

Ravens: Defense, Justin Tucker, Marquise Brown, Dez Bryant, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers:

Chalk: Aaron Jones $15,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $18,900

Contrarian #2: David Montgomery $13,200

Contrarian #3: Allen Robinson $15,000

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Packers: -8

Weather: Nothing major to report, 10-15mph wind, mid 30’s temp

Vegas is telling us threat they are expecting the Packers to smack the Bears around a bit with Green Bay being 8 point favorites. I’m inclined to agree. Rodgers has all of his weapons back and the Bears are now short Nick Foles and are turning back to Mitchell Trubisky. (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable)

Our models have Aaron Jones as the big chalk at captain tonight at around 19 percent and for good reason. As eight point favorites you would expect a heavy dose of Jones and Jamal Williams to round out the end of what I would expect to be a sloppy offensive outing from the Bears who have the most inept offense in the NFL. Technically Davante Adams is projected as the second highest but I think the better pivot would be to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron has every weapon at his disposal tonight (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable) and while I don’t think it’s possible to stop Davante they may be able to slow him just enough to make that $18,900 price tag too steep of a price. I am and always will be a Matt Nagy hater, I’ve made it clear that I think his play calling is stupid. He runs more gadget plays than normal plays. But, if he can get out his way and actually attack the Green Bay weakness which has been for years their run defense the have a narrow path to keeping this close which would make David Montgomery an intriguing captain play. I would expect his ownership to be under 5% at captain tonight. Likely won’t pay off but all you need is a shot in showdown. Rounding out my captain spot is Allen Robinson just due to pure talent. He’s in such a horrible position as a receiver but he keeps producing. He’s gonna be behind the eight ball tonight though as he gets the Jaire Alexander treatment tonight and there aren’t many players who can do anything with that but if we’re expecting the Bears to play from behind he’ll get plenty of chances to break free.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play. If I were to roll a defense tonight it would be Green Bay considering who is throwing the ball. It’s going to be interesting to see if Mitchell can get through his reads to his second and third receivers.

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jamal Williams, Defense, Robert Tonyan, Mason Crosby

Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Cairo Santos, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Miller

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders is going to be a fun event this evening so let’s enjoy ourselves and treat it for what it is, a good game that we can take a few shots on. Don’t get tilted over these, they arte hard to win. DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $ 20,100

Pivot: Derek Carr $14,700

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill $16,500

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce $15,900

Contrarian #3: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $12,300

Vegas Total: 56 points Chiefs: -7.5

I find it so strange that Vegas has so little faith in their home team. I know it is the Chiefs but they have outperformed expectations every step of the way and they have already shown that they have the ability to play up-tempo and they beat the Chiefs by 8 in KC earlier this year. I see this one being close for four quarters so for all of you playing props I’d recommend taking the Raiders +7.5 -116. It’s obvious that Patrick Mahomes is going to be the chalk even at $20,100 and I won’t argue if you go that route but there are two guys I really like. Derek Carr is $14,700 and went for 347 yards passing and 3 TD’s in there last meeting and I’ve been much more optimistic on the Raiders this year than most. Tyreek Hill became a much more intriguing option with news that Lamarcus Joyner on the Covid-19 list and unable to play leaving Amik Robinson in his stead. I know Joyner isn’t anything special but Robinson is a complete mess. no way he keeps up with his 4.45 40 time and overly aggressive nature at DB. The Cheetah is likely going to burn him any time the Raiders go man and even in the cover-2 man under concept Hill will burn these guys with crossing routes. My deep contrarian play is Clyde Edwars-Helaire. Now bear with me. Every year Andy Reid goes through these stints where he gets too cute with the play calling and he completely forgets that he has a running back. He will do it for three or four weeks and then get back to normal. I don’t know if he just uses the later half of the season to test things out to get ready for the playoffs, or if he just looses his mind every year for a while but it always happens. If you want to run a script that matches the Vegas line and bank on the Chiefs dominating an Edwards-Helaire captain play could potentially break the slate. I know I am leaving big play guys out but you know who they are if you want to use them. They’ll be listed as flex plays below but we could have gone 8 deep with captains today but these are just my favorites for various reasons.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders: (All captains are viable flex’s)

First thing that sticks out tonight is that I’m not going to recommend either defenses at flex outside of maybe a super contrarian game script if you are running 150 lineups. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and Derek Carr is great overall when it comes to limiting turnovers. Kickers are in play and if you want to bank on a shootout you’ll need big play options like Henry Ruggs and Demarcus Robinson in your lineup. Luckily the Chiefs are pretty condensed with their playmakers so I’ll likely not using anyone besides Harrison Butker or Demarcus Robinson as ancillary flex options.

Raiders: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Algholor, Daniel Carlson, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards

Chiefs: Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Harrison Butker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

Week 10 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $18,600

Pivot: Cam Newton $16,200

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers $14,400

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews $11,400/ JK Dobbins $12,600 (If Ingram is out)

Contrarian #3: Damien Harris $13,200/ Rex Burkhead $10,200 (If Harris is out or on “snap count”)

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Ravens -6.5:

Vegas is projecting this to be a low scoring tough slog and with rain and wind around 20 MPH at kickoff if you wanted to go with defenses and runners you can choose that as an alternate path than what I mention below. It’s 2020 and more often than not we see crazy things happen contrary to popular opinion every night.

I am going to get this out there first. Living in North Carolina I’ve been forced to watch Cam Newton throw the ball since long before I ever wrote DFS articles. Once the health became I problem I knew the wheels would fall off. His throwing mechanics, accuracy, and tendency to get moody on the sidelines would eventually cause a good deal of problems. He has played one top ten defense all season and was benched after throwing three picks and ended the game with 2.82 points. But, with that being said I recognize my bias here and he makes a lot of sense as a contrarian captain play for much the same reason. I’m not the only person who feels this way and I think we’ll be surprised by just how low his ownership will be at captain. He also presents a clear path with Jakobi Meyers as his main weapon and it looks like Ravens DB Jimmy Smith won’t be playing tonight so Josh McDaniels will surely try to scheme Cam’s favorite guy open. We all know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table so no need to say much and if pairing him with a pass catcher you have two main options in Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown. Both of them have been largely absent this season but someone has to score and the added dynamic of Lamar running the ball may just cause Bill Belichick to make him win through the air so I think you have to pair him with one or the other at minimum. Finally, according to Ian Rappaport he expects Damien Harris to play and he seems to be their best back right now. But Ian Rappaport is one of the absolute worst NFL “insiders” in the business consistently giving you incorrect information causing you to make bad choices (he said CMC and Mike Davis were going to split carries last week….) so until I see official word I will plan on Rex Burkhead as a deep contrarian play as he has shown a high ability to play option football and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of that tonight from both teams.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both Defenses are in play tonight due to both QB’s struggling to throw the ball and the rain and wind. Kickers worry me for the same weather reasons but I’ll have them sprinkled in, mainly Justin Tucker. I personally love Isaiah Ford but he’s a smaller receiver who his better with timing throws that need an accurate QB throwing it. Cam is inaccurate and high on his throws so beyond a cheap punt play I don’t feel great there. Dez Bryant is still on the practice squad so the Dez truthers will have to wait at least another week.

Patriots: Defense, James White, Damiere Byrd, Isaiah Ford,

Ravens: Defense, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead, Justin Tucker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Introduction into NFL DFS contest selection:

As a newer DFS player most of us started off the same way. We were either watching television or listening on SiriusXM and we heard a commercial that went along the lines of “Do you think you know NFL? Do you play seasonal fantasy sports? Do you want to win money instantly? Have a chance to be like (insert name here), he/she won a million dollars playing daily fantasy sports on (insert website). Well sign up today and start winning”. In 2013 that was me, the site was Fanduel, and the player was Chris Prince. I proceeded to enter my money, and I was immediately hooked. Unfortunately, I also was not aware of sites like Win Daily Sports for a couple of years and I was doing like most new players and did nothing but chase the bright shiny Millionaire Maker contests. It took me a long time to realize what full time players already understood, the Milli Maker contests are a waste of money for the average player and that I needed to focus on single entry tournaments and 50/50’s. Not just that when you dig into it because not all single entry contests are created equal. With Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection week 10 we will tackle individual contests selection and why It is important.

Subscriber Questions: I will try to address any questions from our Win Daily Sports family that you may have that I haven’t already covered below.

What is the Difference in build structure between Cash and GPP contests? Your build structure will be vastly different between these types of contests. When building cash lineups the two biggest differences are that first, you don’t fade the highest ownership players like you would consider doing in GPP’s. High ownership is irrelevant because you aren’t worried about finding sneaky low owned players to separate yourself from the rest of the field to get to the top of the leaderboard, you just need to get above the cash line. You don’t get style points for finishing first. Second, you do not want to stack games like you would in GPP’s i.e. Playing a QB and 1-2 pass catchers from one team and running it back with a player from the opposing team. The reason for that is your goal is to minimize your risk and consistently score enough points to simply beat half of the field. If you have your players spread across multiple games and one guy gets hurt or has a bad game it won’t hurt any corresponding players on your team and you can still cash, whereas if your QB has a bad game and you stacked two of his receivers with him you’re now down 3 players and likely dead in the water. At most in cash games I may pair a QB with ONE receiver on RARE occasions and I will use a running back paired with a defense if the matchup is extremely good. One other key difference between the two is that you should largely avoid things like bad matchups in cash (such as a good running back in a bad matchup or a QB in a game with windy conditions), but you will take risks on those plays in GPP’s in an attempt to get a huge performance at low ownership. I hope all of that makes sense to everyone.

I’m going to just put this in here because no matter how many ways I say it people seem to not hear me. If you are playing with a limited bankroll as a new player or simply want the easiest path to make steady winnings DO NOT PLAY SHOWDOWNS. Your chances to win a showdown slate is worse than any other type of contest and if you are relying on it to make up for a bad main slate or think you can predict it accurately enough to be profitable over the long term you are doing it wrong. You’ll be broke and out of the DFS community before we ever get a chance to help you. Ok you’ve been warned. It’s just for fun and maybe you’ll get lucky, that’s it.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: Daily Fantasy Jargon and Definitions:

One thing that I feel is tremendously important is understanding the vocabulary within DFS. New players can sometimes be overwhelmed and a little embarrassed to ask what in the world we are talking about in our articles and in discord. First thing, don’t be. There is not a single content creator that will give you a hard time for not knowing what something means. We have a lingo all our own and it can take a little time to get up to speed and experienced players can sometimes get into the weeds when having nuanced conversations and inadvertently leave newer players not having any idea what we are saying.

GPP or Guaranteed Prize Pool/Tournament:

These are tournaments where the pay structure is pre-defined prior to the start of the contest and the pay structure increases the higher you finish in the final standings. They can either be single entry or multi entry. The Millionaire Maker is the most notable example.

Cash Contests/Double-Ups/50-50’s:

These are contests where if you finish above a certain point in the field you are payed a pre-determined amount that does not change based on final standings. Finishing in the top 50 percent (50-50’s) on FanDuel or roughly top 40 percent (double ups) on DraftKings will result in a positive outcome. These are the easiest contests to cash and the best place for new players to focus on while building bankroll.

MME/Multi Entry/Mega Multi Entry:

Contests where you are allowed to enter more than lineup in a given contest. These contests can range from 3-entries up to 150 entries per contest. These are the most difficult kinds of contests for people to win and with the exception of the 3 entry max should be avoided by most players who do not have an already established bankroll.

Single Entry Contests:

Contests that only allow you to enter a single lineup in a given contest. All new players and even established players should focus the majority of their bankroll on this style of contest. The potential winnings are not nearly as attractive to new players as the giant MME contests but they are by far the best choice for sustained growth. There are both GPP and Cash versions of single entry contests.

Rake:

Rake is the percentage of the overall prize pool that a given site will remove as profit from what is payed out in the player prize pool. Typically, MME GPP’s and smaller entry fee contests have the highest rake sometimes reaching 16% of entry fees removed while higher entry fee contests can see as low as 8% rake. That 8% will directly affect where the pay line sits as well as payout structure i.e. Top 24% of players will cash as opposed to top 18% or top 5 players winning $10K, $8K, $6K, $4K, $3K as opposed to top 5 players winning $10K, $5K, $2K, $1K, $750. These percentages change every given week and will give us the basis for many of our plays on a given week.

Overlay:

You don’t see this one all that often in NFL contests but overlay does still happen. Overlay happens when GPP’s do not fill up and it provides an additional advantage in your overall chances to win. As an example if a contest that has 10,000 maximum entries and only pays the top 2,000 players that means 20% percent of people will win. If only 8,000 people enter that contest they will still pay the top 2,000 people and you now have a 25% chance to win. That 5% improvement in your odds is huge over the long term for your success. It’s harder to predict but if you have a lineup that you feel very confident in and you watch the contest lobby you can give yourself an edge that not everyone will be looking for.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: Cash Contests

It’s less about rake or percentages here so this will be the same every week. When it comes to cash contests stick to single only and play in events with between 100-1000 total entries. This range eliminates the random variance that comes with smaller contests and the slightly higher scores that inevitably come from contests with the multi-thousands of entries of games. We’ll get more into that in the coming weeks as we gather data. If you are just starting out a minimum of 70% of your weekly bankroll needs to go towards these types of contests.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10 DraftKings:

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $1-$25 Range

Both the single entry and 3 entry max $1 dollar contests are identical so if you want to throw a buck at them have fun. Only 1.5x min cash but it’s $1,000 to first in both.
The larger $12 Fair catch is marginally better. A .02% increase in rake but a .19% increase to pay line and a marginally flatter structure near the top edges this one out of its 50k counterpart. $25,000 to First.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $25-$100 Range

In a strange twist this week DraftKings did a better job flattening the top of the larger contests at the sub $100 range. That’s fine with me, we get to take a swing at the larger top prize with marginally better odds. $10,000 to First.
I nice big $7,500 top prize contest with 600 entries and a “decent” Top Ten payout under 35% puts the 3 entry max Goal Line on my list. Rake is about 1.5% too high in my opinion and I’d rather have 2x min cash but it better than most and it’s not crazy for someone who has a bit of a bankroll to max out if they really wanted to.
DK loaded us up with contests with min cash of only 1.5x in the $50-$100 range. This smaller Hot Route contest though is really nice. Under 400 entries, 2.0x min cash, sub 10% rake and a $5,000 top prize. If you’re new to the higher dollar contests and want to dip a tow in I love the idea of taking a swing here. A takedown is a reasonable goal with this one.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $100-$500 Range

Do you want to take a step up an go after a 5 figure top prize and actually have decent odds? Here is you game. With only 416 entries, a rake under 10%, and a min cash of 2x this is a fun one. This one is top heavy but when the GPP’s get this small in terms of entries top loaded is what you want. You have a very real chance at finishing at the top with a strong lineup.
Still have a little left over from your stimulus check and missed out on the new Xbox release? Why not drop $300 in this Single Entry Spin Move contest and take a swing at a $20,000 top price. Top heavy as all get out but like I already said, when your entering these higher dollar contests with sub-600 entries you want to have as much up top as possible. In the event that you just barley cash though the 2x return still gives you an extra chunk of change so you can afford to pay scalper prices on that Xbox you missed out on.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10 FanDuel:

I will say that while the sponsored single entry contests all seem to do a pretty decent job with a flatter pay structure FanDuel makes sure to always increase the rake on them and reduce the min cash to 2x or below (1.83x min cash on the $33) on all three contests so unless you are just dead set on it I would avoid for better options. Unlike DraftKings you can usually find GPP’s with at least 2x min cash but they are by no means perfect as you will see below.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $1-$25 Range

FanDuel unfortunately is really limited on “good” contests in the less expensive single entry contests. I’ve asked them to fix it, they never will. The smaller contests i.e. Small Sweep ($25), Small Scramble ($10), Small Spike ($5), and Small Squib ($1) are better with rake, payout structure, cash line, and min cash. So instead of writing them all up I’ll just say fade the bigger contests and go for the smaller ones to build bankroll. It will pay off in the long run, I promise.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $25-$100 Range

$50 Single Entry NFL Hot Route: Nice Flat payout structure with 2x min cash, $10,000 to first.
$50 Single Entry Small Hot Route: As with the smaller buy in contests I like the way they have the 100-120 entry single entry contests structured. 2.5x Min cash while staying above the 20% cash line is nice. $1,000 to first.
$75 Single Entry NFL Stiff Arm: I’m not a huge fan of the top ten taking 40% of the of the winnings but it’s great elsewhere with almost 25% cashing and under 12 percent on the rake.

Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $100-$500 Range

FanDuel if you are reading this (which I highly doubt) you need to do better, your higher dollar single entry contests are embarrasing in terms of rake, payout structrure, cash line, and min cash. I couldn’t recommend a single one. DraftKings beats you in every way. The only reason I could even put anything in here is because of a 2 max and 3 max entry contest.

$100 Two Entry Small Blitz: The only decent $100 contest on FanDuel. 68 entries, $1,500 to first.
$150 Three Entry NFL End Zone. Hate the 50% going to the top ten and almost 12% rake but the rest is good. $10,000 to first

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection Week 10 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this week. If you have any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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