Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs:

Before we get into captains we all know the usual suspects for the Chiefs so if I don’t get them all in here it’s just due to only using 5 captain picks. If you have a lean for another Chief go for it. It just doesn’t do me or you any good to just list all of them every showdown. I’m trying to get a little different so that you can hopefully take a GPP down. I need some Phillip Lindsay Clarification as well as news of

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $19,800

Pivot: Drew Lock $13,800

Contrarian #1:Travis Kelce $16,200

Contrarian #2: LeVeon Bell $3,600 (If we see CEH limited or out)

Contrarian #3: Noah Fant $7,500

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Notes:

Vegas: 51.5 Point total Chiefs: -13

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, light breeze

Most of us are expecting the same thing, the Chiefs to get up big and control the game. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are clearly great captain options so I’m not going too deep with KC. What we can do as far as a pivot goes is go with Drew Lock and what will likely be a 50 pass night for $6,000 less at half of the ownership. Lock is by no means a “good” QB right now but the garbage time could possibly be a full half so paring him with Noah Fant, Jerry Juedy, or Tim Patrick is a leverage position that I am going to make use of. I need to get some clarification on Clyde Edwards-Helair‘s status but given his illness (stomach virus) if the Chiefs get up big they may opt to not risk wearing him out which is steering me towards LeVeon Bell in a few captain spots. We all like to give Bell a hard time but he still looks like the same back that he has always been it is just the fact that he has been in bad situations or in the case of the Chiefs buried behind CEH. In the same way I thought CEH was a slate breaker in their last showdown I could very well see the same scenario with Bell tonight. I’m not really going to entertain a scenario where the Broncos get ahead when we are talking about script but if you were inclined to use a Broncos running back I would lean Melvin Gordon. For some reason people still talk about Lindsay being the receiving back because he’s small. He’s not, he never has been. He can not catch the ball and that goes back to his time playing for University of Colorado Boulder.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as the Chiefs defense, Lock gets wild and the special teams is always a threat If you choose to use the Chiefs defense I’d recommend using Tyreek Hill over Kelce as captain because you will double dip on a return score. I know I have Tyreek down here but as I made clear. The big three are always captain viable I just chose Kelce for little salary savings.

Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, Brandon McManus, Royce Freeman( if Lindsay out or expected to be limited)

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill***(see above), Defense, Sammy Watkins, Harrison Butker, Darrell Williams (If CEH out), Demarcus Robinson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!