Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
This game needs no explanation. Tom Brady returns to New England and we all know that he wants to show the world that it was him, not Belichick, who was the real reason New England was the dominant force in the NFL for almost two decades. My feelings on this contest do not quite match up with Vegas because I just do not think Mac is quite ready to take a game as big as this one and put it all on him. I think nerves will be a factor and the Bucs should get up early. If you are placing any bets tonight consider taking the Bucs -6.5.
I do not think there is a price high enough to keep Brady from being the big chalk tonight and for good reason. Even in his mid 40’s, he remains one of the best QB’s in the league and he wants to pour it on Bill and the Patriots for even entertaining the possibility of replacing him with Jimmy G years back. It does not matter what the score is tonight, he is not taking his foot off of the gas, and this is a guy who throws is 50 times a night against teams he does not take issue with. He may throw until his arm falls off.
Finishing with the silver medal in the petty Olympics we have Antonio Brown. Brady is the one who brought Brown into New England and I can promise you that he has not forgotten that. If I am going to pivot from the goat I am going to do so with the guy I see getting the lion’s share of the passing targets this week with Gronk out with broken ribs. I think people are sleeping on Brown a bit because of the missed time and a Falcons game where he only saw three targets. Do not sleep on him tonight, the narrative is almost as important as the ability tonight and both are high.
If you want to play the garbage time narrative I like the idea of running Jakobi in the captain spot. Last week with the Patriots down, Meyers saw 14 targets for 94 yards and if the Bucs have one weakness it is with the young secondary pieces. I think Mac will struggle from a real football standpoint but I see him getting a lengthy garbage time period where he and Jakobi can pad some stats.
He may have ended up higher on my captain’s list if he were a little cheaper. I love the idea of going after the Pats defense from the slot and Godwin is already at 25 targets in just three games this season. If you choose to not mess with AB this week Godwin would be my other main WR play for the Bucs on the evening. Godwin is the best route runner on this team and Brady will know exactly where to go to find the soft spots in the defense.
As I mentioned above I think Mac has a bit of a tough time early on. While it may look ugly on the field if he has troubles in the early going that means that Damien Harris will not be an option (not that I think he does great against the Bucs front) and he will be in catch up mode early. Garbage time against the Bucs should result in a pretty productive day from a fantasy standpoint and Mac should have his first multi TD game in the process.
I’m not really messing with kickers as per usual but I really don’t expect Bill or Brady to hold back much tonight. I could see a justification for the Bucs defense as they can be a nightmare forcing turnovers and pressuring the QB and Mac being a rookie QB in the biggest game of his career I think they will be even more aggressive than usual.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 4 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game and GPP articles, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
(if you do not want to use Javonte because of the timeshare Michael Carter is in a great spot as a pivot at 5%)
I will continue to beat this drum because it is only a matter of time before his talent results in a GPP takedown. With Melvin Gordon playing well, people will continue to avoid playing him in a 50/50 time share situation until the status quo changes. As a rookie he already has all of the tools to be an elite three down back but there is one thing people do not know, yet. He is one of the most intelligent people on the football field full stop. Not only does he understand his role, he understands the roles of every other player on the field which combined with his physical skills can and will make him an elite running back in this league the moment he gets the backfield to himself. Against the Ravens his pass catching ability is going to be vital (remember what I said about Swift last week being able to exploit the linebackers and safety’s). He will be finding open zones due to the cover 1 free concepts that are perfect for his open field agility and ability to break tackles. Gordon is questionable as of now but most people will stay away due to not knowing if he will be the main guy in the late games.
Chubb is another player that I will continue to ride until he finally explodes and the fact that you can get him for only 7K, at under 4% ownership, against a bottom three run defense, in a pickem game, with a 51.5 total screams GPP play. Last week the Browns finally gave us the volume that we were expecting from Chubb with 22 carries. Luckily for us this week he only gained 84 yards and failed to get into the end zone for the first time in the regular season since week 10 of 2020. Chubb is an elite back averaging 5.5 yards per carry and Jarvis Landry will be out for at least a few more weeks. While Beckham will try to put the team on his back the Browns are at their absolute best when controlling the game from the ground.
The Eagles coaching staff embarrassed themselves on a nationally televised game and has everyone asking them why they would choose to not even consider running the football against a team that was short two of their defensive linemen and was susceptible to the run. Miles Sanders racked up 27 yards on only two carries and 28 yards on only three catches. It was an embarrassing game plan, so I am fairly certain after all of those questions and the clear accuracy issues of Jalen Hurts that they will make more of an effort to at minimum run enough to keep the Chiefs honest. I just do not see a scenario where Sirianni bails on his run game to an embarrassing degree two weeks in a row.
Also Consider: Zack Moss (3.5%), Michael Carter (5%), Antonio Gibson (10%)
This doesn’t take much explanation, his price will continue to climb from here and he is in a prime spot against the Jets. One thing that I would like to point out that Adam already has. Henry is now being used in the passing game. He is on pace for 73 targets this season dwarfing his career-high of 31. So now we have Derrick Henry catching four or five passes a game and his rushing volume is still the best in the league. Add in no AJ Brown and he is a must for your cash contests. Draftkings has not caught up to what Henry is doing in PPR. He is $1,000 too cheap this week.
I told you guys way back in the preseason that Nagy was going to have to sacrifice his play-calling duties to have a chance to keep his job. Well, four weeks in, and the rumors are that Nagy quietly surrendered the play-calling back to Lazor this week. When that happened last season David had the best six-game stretch of his career rushing for 598 yards with seven rushing TDs and 24 catches for 226 yards and one TD. The icing on the cake is that we get to enjoy this change at the same time that the Bears match up against a competitive but defensively inept Lions squad. Sadly his ownership will be high but I am still going to mix him into my GPP’s as well as Cash contests. Happy Monty day!
I haven’t been on the Kamara train this season but this is an absolute smash spot against the Giants this week. The Giants are a little better than people give them credit for against the run but they are by no means great. Washington ended up being a random shootout on a Thursday night and they abandoned the run. Atlanta is…..Atlanta right now. Denver is the only other team they faced with a legit run game and they tore them up to the tune of 165 yards on the ground. One thing at least to this point that I will say is that I was mistaken about the volume he would get in the run game. He has exceeded 20 carries in 2 of 3 and while his receiving numbers are down with Winston he is still getting at least four targets a game which still gives him some upside in that regard.
Also Consider: Alvin Kamara (18%), D’Andre Swift (15%), Chubba Hubbard (25%/FD), Najee Harris (15%)
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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