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GPP

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: ZOZO Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour’s drive east of Tokyo, Japan. It was initially built in 1976 and features what I would call a ‘claustrophobic design.’ The fairways are of average width, but the venue as a whole emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature where golfers will be required to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout the 18 holes. That means accuracy takes the podium over distance this week, and we should get a general idea of that with the venue measuring under 7,100 yards. I want to note that length isn’t irrelevant if you’re going to intensify your research and think a little outside of the box, but I geared mine towards accuracy when making a build.

We have a unique number of par threes, with all five measuring below 200 yards. The easiest of the five is the 13th, which yields nearly a 20% birdie or better percentage and plays at 141 yards. The three par-fives are lengthy, and all exceed 560 yards. The 14th is 608 yards and only has a 25.2% birdie or better rate – a number that is greatly reduced for what we typically see on tour. And then we have the 10 par-fours that are all over the map in design.

The only other notable point that you will hear a lot of throughout the industry this week is that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter, but golfers will need to be aware of it to avoid making any unnecessary mistakes.

Weighted Par-Four (20%) – That is built towards Narashino Country Club being the venue in mind. It is going to include a combination of those key distances that I mentioned between 350-400 and 450-500 yards, as well as a varying amount of birdie or better mixed with bogey avoidance.
Weighted Par-Three (10%) -We have one more than usual, and four of the five are gettable. That stat is derived from par-three average and then some of the key proximity ranges where the holes are set up.
Weighted Par-Five (10%) – Overall par-five birdie or better, some long iron play and how a golfer has performed on longer par-fives throughout their career.
Weighted Bentgrass (10%) – That is 70% strokes gained total at bentgrass properties and 30% strokes gained putting on bentgrass. I liked that combination because it added in some putting but still kept the premier course fits up top.
Weighted Proximity (15%) – For the most part, that was removing a lot of the 200+ proximity ranges and recalculating the model to try and mimic some semblance of the venue this week. The percentages won’t be perfect because we don’t have data at hand, but I still think it works better removing the less critical elements from the equation.
Strokes Gained Total on Short Par 70s (10%) – Narashino is a specific layout that falls under an easily quantifiable metric. It doesn’t mean all players that have struggled at a shorter test will do so again, but it is nice to have an idea of who is more likely to pop from off the pace.
Weighted Driving (15%) – I used a combination of driving accuracy and fairways gained.
Sand Save (10%) – There are a lot of bunkers that surround the greens. Being able to get up and down should help salvage score.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Collin Morikawa ($11,200), Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – Unfortunately, pricing is really good, and maybe that has more to do with the fact that the field is watered down at the very bottom, but If I am being honest, I don’t love this tournament from a DraftKings perspective. You get these weird built-in scenarios when you have two golfers that are sub-eight/1 to win the event, and you have to at least consider fading one or both of them in any large-sized GPP if they reach 30%+. However, the problem with that is not only is the ownership warranted, but I also have a hard time seeing how they don’t at least stay competitive. I think the best course of action is to figure out which one you like the most, but you can get very contrarian, very quickly if you skip the big four and build in other directions. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) and Will Zalatoris ($10,500) are fine on the surface, but there isn’t a big enough drop-off in ownership or price for me to want to pivot in a separate direction from Morikawa or Schauffele. I’d want at least one of those things to be true, and I don’t think either will be the case in Japan.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) – I realize this will be a contrarian take, but I was able to alter various portions of my model to show the Englishman as a value. Fleetwood is 37th for me out of 78 players when it comes to strokes gained approach, but when I condensed the proximity numbers to equal more of what he should get this weekend at Narashino, he grades eighth in this field. We know from experience that Fleetwood does his best work overseas, and as someone that constantly finds him overvalued, I don’t believe he is here. Playing Fleetwood in any capacity, whether as the second man in behind Morikawa/Xander or as your first option, is a surefire way to get unique.

Favorite Cash Play– Xander Schauffele ($11,000)

$9,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) – The first bet I placed before Paul Casey withdrew from the field was Joaquin Niemann at 28/1. We have seen him go ice cold with the putter recently, but the rest of his game has remained sharp. He has gained with his irons in 14 of 16. Off the tee in 11 of 13, and while we aren’t talking about massive numbers during most of those appearances, my math continues to believe another win is around the corner. The rest of the group is more of a mix-and-match for me. I like this section as a whole, but the majority are fairly priced options that become intriguing because of their reduced ownership number compared to my model. Alex Noren ($9,700) carries some of that Tommy Fleetwood type appeal. I like Erik Van Rooyen at $9,500. Keegan Bradley ($9,400) is more of a GPP target because some of his putting woes might get reduced on these manicured greens. Maverick McNealy ($9,300) and Cameron Tringale ($9,200) are both worth a look in various builds. My model prefers each for cash, but I can be convinced to grab a few shares at the right percentage. And Emiliano Grillo ($9,100) carries a lot of that same potential that we discussed with Keegan Bradley, although I do believe the American has more upside.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t be afraid to play some of these choices for above ownership consensus

$8,000 Range

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900), K.H. Lee ($8,700) – Both Jhonattan Vegas and K.H. Lee are very much in play. I prefer them in cash because each ranks inside the top-eight of that model, but I am not going to talk anyone out of using them in GPP lineups.

Ryan Palmer ($8,300) – Ryan Palmer’s form looks shaky with multiple missed cuts in his last handful of showings, but I am willing to ignore most of that because of how he fits for the course. He ranks 10th in this field over his past 50 rounds on short par 70 layouts and is inside the top-20 for weighted proximity, putting from 5-10 feet and overall birdie or better percentage.

Chris Kirk ($8,100) – I believe the stats are better than the form would indicate for Chris Kirk, and it is the same thought process I just mentioned with Ryan Palmer of how the shorter layout might provide more upside. Kirk has gained with his irons in eight of nine starts. Off the tee in four of seven, but this is the kind of venue you would anticipate seeing him find success because of his accuracy off the tee. He ranks 10th in my recalculated proximity category and is inside the top-15 for GIR, three-putt percentage, sand save percentage, overall bogey avoidance, scrambling, par-four average and scoring at a short par 70. Kirk is the most significant disparity in my model regarding my rank versus his price tag of anyone $8,000 or above.

Other Thoughts: I have given a deeper dive to Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) and Charley Hoffman ($8,500). I don’t mind fitting either into builds

$7,000 Range

Brendon Todd ($7,400) – I love how Brendon Todd has played in his career on similar par-fours as the ones he has in front of him in Japan. He is the number one driver and number one putter in my model, which is a great combination for someone that at least can get hot with the irons out of nowhere. He has pretty much been rotating between earning and losing with his approach game over the last few months, but when he has gained, 2.6 at the Fortinet, 4.6 at the Wyndham – those are also courses that benefit finding fairways.

Pat Perez ($7,300) – I am curious to see where Pat Perez’s ownership goes, but it is worth noting that he withdrew from the Shriners on the final hole of the day on Friday after already being guaranteed to miss the cut. That isn’t an injury problem…that sounds like a man that wants to gamble on the Vegas strip.

Additional Thoughts: I like Garrick Higgo ($7,800) if you are looking for a contrarian dart throw in GPPs. Other top values for me are Harry Higgs ($7,500), Henrik Norlander ($7,400) – preferably cash, Matt Jones ($7,200) has playability across the board, Brendan Steele ($7,100) and my model likes Doug Ghim and Tom Hoge at $7,000.

$6,000 Range

Andrew Putnam ($6,700) – Andrew Putnam is ranked 28th for me overall. 23rd for safety and enters the week with two top-30s over his last three starts. There are certain players this week that received a boost because of their short games, and Putnam did fall into that category by ranking inside of the top-15 in sand save percentage, scrambling, bogey avoidance and bentgrass putting

James Hahn ($6,300) – There is no guarantee that James Hahn performs in Japan, but he has shown he has winning upside when he does put himself into contention. I always prefer him at a course that rewards driving accuracy, and he should get that here in Narashino

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Roger Sloan ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,800), Chan Kim ($6,500), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), Adam Long ($6,300), Kazuki Higa ($6,500), Scott Vincent ($6,400), Rikuya Hoshino ($6,200), Kyle Stanley ($6,200), Wesley Bryan ($6,000) and Shaun Norris ($6,000)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

Zozo Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to Japan this week for the Zozo Championship which takes place at the Narashino Country Club. The course is a Par 70 and approximately 7100 yards and for back to back weeks there will be no cut. There isn’t a ton of course history to dig through as this venue is only being utilized for the second time on the PGA Tour. This week I’m looking for accuracy off the tee, APP and ARG. I’ve essentially reduced this to a ball strikers haven with no distinct advantage for long versus short hitters. Much more on course dynamics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with the PGA Team. Also, please note that this tournament begins Wednesday night! Now, let’s get to the Zozo initial picks.

Collin Morikawa (11200) – The best golfer in the field will be popular, but he has the most win equity and I like how he looked at the CJ Cup as it looks like his minor injury is a thing of the past. Xander is my second favorite in this range. I’ll note that Spencer has Fleetwood as a strong contrarian play.

Keegan Bradley (9400) – I’m looking for ball strikers and a good all-around game and Keegan checks all the boxes. I will note that Joaquin Niemann is 3^rd in Spencer’s model so I will likely be fitting him into some lineups as well.

Emiliano Grillo (9100) – Another great ball striker who appears to be in form. His PUTT is usually a problem, but I’m hoping the perfectly manicured greens at the Zozo helps some of the poor putters this week.

Jhonnatan Vegas (8900) – He’s been in great form and is downright elite in this field OTT, APP and BOB Gained. No reason to shy away from him in cash games, but beware of high ownership in GPPs. Make sure to catch our show for more on ownership, and of course, Steven’s ownership article.

K.H. Lee (8700) – He’s having a very good year and is a great course fit with a short course and Bentgrass greens. Add to that he has extensive experience on Japanese courses and he’s a solid value. Another guy that may be better for cash due to the potential for high ownership.

Chris Kirk (8100) – A pretty great course fit who is inside the Top 15 in my model. His lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him and he’s inside the Top 25 in almost every model metric I’ve used this week. Even better he’s one of Spencer’s favorite values on the board. Should be relatively low owned.

Luke List (7900) – ownership may be low coming off an MC at the Shriners and his game is certainly volatile, but he tends to do well on these shorter tracks and over the last 50 rounds he’s inside the Top 25 in this field OTT, APP, ARG, BOB Gained, Good Drives and SG Par 3 (some of the metrics I’m focused on this week).

Henrik Norlander (7400) – Rates out well in almost all metrics in my model and can get red-hot on APP. He’s got one MC since Palmetto and two Top 5s within that timeframe. Likely to be popular and may be better for cash. I also like Higgs and Hoge in this range, among others (check out our show tonight!).

Kyle Stanley (6200) – If you’re looking to take a flyer on someone, you can try one of the best ball strikers in this field. The problem is his short game is really bad. The hope here is that in this no-cut event he can be a zero putter for a couple days.

Shaun Norris (6000) – A late add to the field and a likely misprice. Norris is coming off a decisive win last week at the Japan Open. Another golfer with extensive experience in Japan, and by the way, he’s ranked 86^th in the world. Just to give you some perspective, that’s two spots behind Keegan Bradley and five spots above fellow countryman Charl Schwartzel.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 44-13.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday afternoon for all Zozo lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5

Yuck. That is all I have to say about this contest with the injury situation in Seattle. This will not be the prettiest game in the world but it should be a fun one to target for fantasy. Who would have thought that in 2021 we would be seeing Geno Smith starting a football game. I think the total is pretty spot on but I am not quite sold that a Seahawks team post legion of boom, without Chris Carson, and without Russell Wilson would only be 4.5 point dogs on a road game in Pittsburgh. One thing I am interested to see is the Steelers O-line and whether the league worst 2.3 seconds per throw will improve since this should be the easiest pass rush that the Steelers have faced to date. I do plan on taking a few shots on Big Ben in the event that he does get enough time to throw. I do not like the circumstances that he is dealing with but I am nowhere near as low on him as a QB as most others are. But that is the beauty of fantasy sports, we get to put some money on it and reap the rewards if we are correct.

Captains:

Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:

The clear cut chalk in tonight’s game is Najee and I really do not think anyone will be within 5%. Najee as a rookie is already top three in the NFL in touches and leader in targets five weeks into the season and this game script is perfect for him to have a huge showing. If all goes to plan Najee will likely be the raw points leader when it is all said and done but there are a few options below that I think we can roll with to get a little different and get a little better value at captain in order to fit one extra “stud” in your build.

Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:

With no Juju tonight there are a handful of extra targets to go around tonight and even as bad as Big Ben looks this year Dionte’s big play ability and his 10-12 targets a game against this week Hawks D could be a points bonanza so as far as pivots go he is my main guy. My choice to go with Dionte over Claypool is simply due to the number of targets and I think Chase has slightly higher ownership as a captain so I am splitting the smallest of hairs here.

Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:

Chase is a beastly human being and he regularly turns 5 yard slants into 40 yard TD’s because of how strong he is. If you choose to roll with him as your captain over Dionte you are not going to see me complaining about it. My only concern as I noted above is that Dionte gets around double the targets as Claypool any given week but he can very easily turn 6 targets into 120 yards and 2 TD’s.

Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:

With Geno throwing the football I am in no way confident about the receiving corps of the Seahawks but if I had to choose one I am going to go for the bigger target with the inaccurate arm of Smith. Smith is going to make some terrible throws tonight but a physical talent like DK should be able to win a number of the 50/50 balls tonight and potentially convert them into big plays downfield. This will likely be the only time you will also see a players like DK in a showdown slate at sub 5% in the captain spot. Do not go overweight on this one as I have minimal confidence here but the leverage it provides is substantial if his talent can overcome the shortcomings at the QB position.

Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:

Yes I know Ben has played like garbage this season but if we feel confident about Harris in the receiving game, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool then it stands to reason that the person throwing the ball to them will have a good game as well. Ben has had the least amount of time to throw in the NFL (2.28 sec) so I am not 100% laying the blame at his feet just yet. This will be the weakest pass rush by far for the Steelers so if they can give been somewhere closer to 2.8 or maybe even 3 seconds that will give longer developing routes time to develop and maybe turn into some big plays for Ben. I know that everyone is quick to talk about his arm strength but when given the time I have seen him uncork several throws well over 50 yards this season and I do not think that anyone will be using him as a captain in tonight’s contest.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:

Najee Harris
Dionte Johnson
Chase Claypool
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
Ben Roethlisberger
Alex Collins
Gino Smith
Gerald Everette
Steelers D
Pat Freiermuth
Chris Boswell
Jason Meyers
Eric Ebron
Freddie Swain
Will Dissly
Travis Homer

Kickers and defenses:

This is a Sunday night game where Kickers and at least one defense is in play. With Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks the Steelers defense could have themselves a huge night. He has never been able to make good choices with heavy pressure in his face and the Hawks O-line is yet again one of the worst in the NFL. Both Jason Meyers and Chris Boswell should get scoring opportunities with long field goals as

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 6 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. In addition to bye weeks we have a London game that pulls away from the main slate and a slew of injuries that we have to navigate so be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game Checkdown article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Javonte Williams, $5,000DK.$5,600:

I have been trying to temper my expectations on Javonte over the last few weeks since the Broncos have been dead set on splitting the work between him and Melvin Gordon. But Melvin is injured and it appears that even if he plays his workload will be limited in order to protect him so the rest of the world is about to see what a number of us already know. Javonte is the next superstar running back to emerge in the NFL. He checks all of the boxes in both the tangible and intangible categories. Big, strong, fast, smart, can catch the ball, can block in pass pro, and is on a team that will run the ball when the script allows it. The best part is that since it is a late-game we likely will not get confirmation on his injury until the early games have kicked off so he is sitting between 3-5%, but even if we do there are so many people already on Khalil Herbert that I do not really think the ownership numbers will change enough to take him out of play in GPP’s.

Dalvin Cook, $7,700DK/$8,800:

We have ourselves a very interesting situation where there is so much value due to injuries this week that Dalvin Cook is looking like he will be around 8% rostered against a Panthers team who has only gone up against one team that can run the ball effectively (Cowboys) and surrendered 210 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries between (7.0 YPC) Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. Cook appears to be 100% now after sufferings an ankle injury a few weeks ago and Mattison is now dealing with a shoulder injury. This is a full go situation where we get him as a GPP option as an added benefit.

D’Andre Swift, $6,300DK/$7,100FD:

I was expecting him to be higher than the 8% that I am seeing him at. The Bengals defense has allowed at least 120 yards rushing in three of five games, 14 catches to Najee Harris, and 8 grabs to the combo of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones making this a prime spot for Swift who has had no less than 6 targets in his last three games and no less than 11 carries in 3 of 5 games. He has been dealing with this going injury since the preseason so I am no longer concerned and with Cephus on the IR, and Hockenson and Jamaal Williams both dealing with their injuries Swift is likely to see an uptick in usage this week.

Also Consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson

WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

Cash:

Austin Ekeler, $7,900DK/$8,400FD:

One thing is certain for me when I am building my lineups for any slate. If there is a pass-catching running back going up against the Ravens linebackers and safeties they will be rostered in a healthy amount of my builds (or tight ends but that is not my focus here). With Mike Williams dealing with a knee issue and 50/50 to play the trio of Ekeler, Allen, and Cook will potentially have to absorb the 10+ targets a game vacated in a 51 total game that Vegas is expecting to stay close.

Khalil Herbert, $4,600DK/$5,500FD:

With the numerous injuries to the Packers defense, they have gone from a defense that can put together a stout game when the matchups are favorable to a fully exploitable team on both the ground and the air. Not only did they surrender huge chink plays to Jamar Chase to the tune of 159 yards on only six catches, but they also gave up 5.4 yards per carry to….Samaje Perine. Yeah, you are reading that right. In Khalil’s first major action this season the Bears weren’t shy using him, feeding him 18 carries for a respectable 75 yards and I’m expecting much more this week. I had the pleasure of watching Herbert play for my Hokies last season and while he isn’t the fastest guy in the world he is over 210 lbs at only 5’9″, is tough to solo tackle, and has good hands if the Bears decide to use him in the passing game.

Kareem Hunt, $6,200DK/$7,400FD:

Just lock this in for your cash contests, you are doing yourself a huge disservice if you do not. When it comes to the Browns, if either one of the rushing title winning running backs sit you start the other and do not think twice. Even with Chubb playing Kareem has only had one game with less than 16.6 DK points and only one game where he did not get into the endzone. The Cardinals are clearly better than we were anticipating on the defensive side of things but James Robinson (before Meyer learned he is allowed to run), Darrell Henderson, and Davin Cook all averaged at least 5.6 yards per carry and the Browns are committed to the run in a way that all of these teams sans Minnesota (Cook had 131 yards on 22 carries) are not. There is no need to get cute, play the stud, count your money.

Also Consider: Chubba Hubbard, Jonathan Taylor, Darrell Henderson

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

I know that we say this every single week, but it truly is hard to believe that we have already arrived at week 6 of the NFL. While we are still not approaching the halfway point of this new longer season, we are rapidly approaching the halfway point of the season-long fantasy football season. This is not a season long article though, so let’s focus on our top targets for DFS contests this weekend. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Kansas City Chiefs are shockingly 2-3 after losses to the Ravens, Chargers, and most recently a blowout loss to the Bills. The narrative going into this season was the the Chiefs cover at a high rate early in the season and then fail to cover later in the season as they coast towards the playoffs and keep the playbook close to their chest. Clearly, that is not accurate, which is why we should always be careful following a narrative and really never make bets based on them. What we should do, however, is roster Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) in our DFS lineups this Sunday. While Mahomes is far from “on sale”, his ownership has been very low this season due almost exclusively to his prohibitive price tag compared to other signal callers. This is the week to pay that price when the DFS industry and football world as a whole is way down on this team. To add to that, the Chiefs draw an absolute dream matchup against a Washington Football Team defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA and 29th at defending the pass. Worst of all, they are ranked dead last in defense against opposing quarterbacks, which sounds like a 400+ passing yard and 3+ TD game for Mr. Mahomes to me.

B. The second quarterback that I will be looking to target in GPPs for week 6 of the NFL is Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD). Stafford and the Rams draw a matchup against the hapless New York Giants who just seem to be awful year after year, very similar to the other team in New York. It truly does not get much worse as a sports fan than New York football. The G-men are ranked 26th in DVOA, 25th against the QB position and 22nd against the pass. In other words, any way that you slice it this team is not very adept at defending opposing passing attacks. The Rams are listed as massive double digit favorites in this game, but if this game turns into a blowout then we should expect at least 2-3 touchdowns provided by the arm of Matt Stafford. To make matters worse, the Giants are the worst team on the main slate in terms of adjusted sack rate, which combines with the Rams offensive line to give Stafford the lowest chance of being pressured or sacked of all quarterbacks in the 10 game main slate. Lock and load Stafford in all formats if you do not have the salary cap to get up to Patrick from State Farm.

C. With two safe options at QB1 and QB2 this week, I will be taking a shot with my QB3 and looking to target Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD). I have yet to roster Burrow through the first five weeks of the season, but the narrative that he is nowhere near at the level that he was at prior to his gruesome injury has still made its way into my head. This looks to be accurate when it comes to ceiling, as JB has yet to eclipse the 25 fantasy point mark on DraftKings, but he has had a pretty solid floor with the exception of his brutal performance against the Bears in week 2. Where he has really struggled is with turning the ball over, currently sporting a 11/6 TD/interception ratio which is pretty awful. The good news is, he hit a season high in both attempts (38) and completions (26) last week against the Packers, so we may see him beginning to come out of his well-deserved injury shell. I cannot think of a better “Joe is back” smash matchup than the one that the Bengals draw in week 6 of the NFL, the Detroit Lions. It is no secret that the Lions are the bottom of the barrel in the NFL on both sides of the ball, so I will save you the metric overview and just say that I love Burrow as a low-owned GPP option this Sunday.

The Stacks

A. With the Chiefs starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire being placed on IR, many may be looking to get some Darrel Williams exposure this week, which is certainly an acceptable proposition. However, I am of the belief that the Chiefs will be throwing even more than they do on a typical Sunday this weekend. I do not think that anyone could have anticipated how dreadfully awful this Chiefs defense has been, but here we are in week 6 of the NFL with the Chiefs surrendering nearly 30 points per game to opposing offenses. Andy Reid is well aware that his best chance to win is by putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes as much as possible, which will result in extremely high ceilings and floors for the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill. If you are feeling frisky and want to target fringe pass catchers like Hardman or Robinson feel free, but I will likely stick to the two studs on both this side of the ball and the other side. Speaking of the other side, the Washington Football Team has two clear cut receiving options that also happen to be at the WR and the TE position. Of course I am referencing Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones, now that Logan Thomas is expected to be out for another 3-4 weeks. You can look to bring the Chiefs stack back with Antonio Gibson, but as with any Chiefs stack, you will need to find as many places to save salary as possible.

B. The Cooper Kupp vs. Bobby Trees debate is one as old as time, and while Kupp has certainly taken the early lead, teams tend to then focus more on defending the brighter star, which in turn leaves more opportunity for the other play maker. We saw Woods come to life a bit last week, and these two still have drastically different prices which have me leaning towards Woods much more often. Darrell Henderson is another excellent option this week and I love pairing him with one of either Woods or Kupp to go along with our Stafford lineups. Not to be forgotten is tight end Tyler Higbee, who is always a big red zone target for Stafford to turn to. For the G-Men, Kadarius Toney absolutely smashed in week five, but DraftKings was quick to shoot his price up into the mid-tier of wideouts. At 5.6K, I am more likely to look to the returning Sterling Shepard as an option and save the $600 salary. Regardless, do not get carried away with this team as they are listed as one of the largest underdogs of the entire week.

C. To close things out we will double click into the Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Detroit Lions matchup. The Lions lost breakout wide receiver Quintez Cephus to a broken collarbone last week, further depleting the already extremely slim options that former Rams quarterback Jared Goff has to deal with. I will continue to avoid any Lions receiving options, but T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are two solid options that have been gathering quite a bit of steam around the industry early this week. If either of them get too chalky, I am more than fine running Bengals stacks without a bring-back, because this Lions squad is a threat to put up a goose egg on the scoreboard any given week. Switching over to the main side of this game that we want to target, it appears that Mixon will play although he is banged up to a certain extent. I will be focusing my attention on the three favorite passing targets of QB Joe Burrow, which are Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. While Chase’s price and ownership are starting to really creep up, Higgins and Boyd are still at more than reasonable levels and therefore make for the better options in GPPs. Chase is definitely the optimal choice here however, so we can plug him into our stacks and look to differentiate elsewhere as well.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 4 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

4 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Course – Summit Club

7,459 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bentgrass

We are back in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week, as the PGA Tour will highlight a course never seen before called the ‘Summit Club.’ And while the venue is just two neighborhoods down the road from where I live, it must be noted that this week’s Tom Fazio design is about as exclusive as you can find in this city. Membership to the facility costs $200,000 per year and finding any data has been extremely hard to come by for those attempting to gather information. Luckily, all is not lost since we should be able to make a few guesses on what to expect, so let’s dive into those answers.

One of the things I try to do is figure out what can be proven. That is information like yardage. What is par? What kind of greens are they playing? Those questions start to point us in a general direction that gives us a blueprint of what to look deeper into for the week. That’s the easy way to get an initial idea, but I do think we can take it a step further if we want to jump into the mix. Many course architects will similarly build their properties, and Tom Fazio is one of those designers. When I look at Fazio venues, there are a few courses that I think are decent comps. Shadow Creek is one, which is the Vegas course used last year, and the second would be Caves Valley – won by Patrick Cantlay a few months ago during the BMW Championship. In reality, you can essentially use any Fazio track for reference, but I went through my models to try and find any corollary stats that stood out across the board, and I noticed most were usually nearly identical each time.

Deep-bunkering will surround undulating fairways and greens. Three-putt avoidance typically means something since complexes are large. When you add to the equation that this surface should be fast because of the Vegas heat, it amplifies that notion even further. Distance almost always has some effect with the venues being wide open, and long iron play helps with the length of the shots in front of us. Other small factors are worth a deeper dive, but this is one of the better tracks we could get for having zero data at our disposal.

Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split between distance over accuracy. I want golfers that can carry and cut off any of the danger along the way.
Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (17.5%) – I will always be on the heavier side of things when given a Par-72.
Weighted Bentrass (15%) – This category incorporates a 50/50 split between SG:Total on Bentgrass and SGl Putting on Bentgrass. The goal is to find who likes the surface and then marginally add putting into the mix so we don’t just get the premier ball-strikers that can’t finish their work.
SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (12.5%) – ANOTHER POTENTIAL BIRDIE FEST.
Proximity From 175+ Yards (15%) – That stat was a staple in almost any Fazio design that I looked into
Three-putt Avoidance + Around The Green (10%) – The breakdown there is 60% three putt and 40% ATG. These are large surfaces that can get dried out because of the Vegas heat, and short game is going to matter with the undulation at the property
Weighted Bunker Play (12.5%) – The stat is made up of 70% sand save percentage from green side traps and 30% GIR percentage from fairway bunkers. As I just mentiond. Players with distance will be able to cut off the doglegs, so that is why I weighed the green side ones heavier.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Dustin Johnson ($11,300) – Dustin Johnson is overpriced because of his Ryder Cup performance, but this is one of those spots where I can live with that notion because there is a chance to leverage his ownership to the field. He ranks inside the top five of my model and has always excelled on these fast bentgrass-type properties where straightforward scoring and distance matter. None of this is to say that we can’t fit in more options from the top, but Johnson is one of only two players in this range that grades as a value when looking at ownership versus rank. The other is the man coming up next.

Rory McIlroy ($10,100) – Rory McIlroy is probably my preferred play when looking at stats and ownership combined. McIlroy can easily be paired with another big gun, or you can even choose to start a lineup with him separately. I don’t think you are required to play anybody in this range if you are trying to get contrarian, but the perception is so poor around the Irishman lately that it is opening up a possibility to get him under the radar. McIlroy ranks as the #1 total driver in my model when I restructured the stats to fit this specific course.

Favorite Cash Play– Justin Thomas ($11,100)

$9,000 Range

Tony Finau ($9,600) – Tony Finau has a ton of statistical data pointing in his favor. He ranks second in strokes gained total at bentgrass properties, including being 19th when just looking at putting on these greens. Finau is a good bunker player and should be able to use his length to take advantage of the wide-open nature.

Cameron Smith ($9,200) – Surprisingly, Cameron Smith is actually the top-ranked golfer in my model. I build my spreadsheet without DraftKings prices being incorporated as any sort of a built-in total towards the weight, but you would be surprised how infrequently this scenario plays itself out of where a low-$9,000 dollar golfer grades as the top player. It did happen for Sungjae last week also, but that was a weaker field. I am speaking more of these star-studded events. I couldn’t tell you the last time I didn’t see Rahm, Cantlay, Thomas, Bryson, Rory, Dustin or Morikawa at the top. I know not all those players are in the field this week, but we do have enough to make it worthwhile that Smith is number one. The Aussie grades second in my weighted bentgrass category, first in par-five scoring and first in weighted bunker play.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) – I believe some DFS users might be jumping off the bandwagon too early after Scottie Scheffler’s disastrous showing at TPC Summerlin. Sure, it wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but the American is a golfer that succeeds at these easy courses that reward driving. Scheffler’s upside is unquestioned, and the no-cut narrative should ease some tension.

Additional Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($9,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) and Abraham Ancer ($9,100) are my three least favorite options in this range.

$8,000 Range

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,400) – Tyrrell Hatton ranks 11th in my model for scoring at short courses and ninth in long iron proximity. This will be GPP-only, but the Englishman has the firepower with his long irons to compete if he can keep his head on straight.

Paul Casey ($8,200) – Paul Casey has gained with his irons in 15 straight starts. OTT in seven of eight. And even though the putter has been ice cold, bentgrass is his best surface. Sometimes you don’t need to look any further than value, and Casey has proven he can pay off his salaries when priced this far down the board. I think he is one of the better values to be found.

Patrick Reed ($8,000) – I think Joel said it best on the live show we do here for Win Daily – “Patrick Reed is mispriced.” It has taken me longer in the week to come around to that realization, but the American is an incredible GPP target that has the upside to win this event. He shouldn’t be sub-five percent owned, and it won’t take much to find yourself overweight.

Other Thoughts: Harris English ($8,900) and Shane Lowry ($8,300) are playable in this range.

$7,000 Range

Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) – My model has Joaquin Niemann correctly priced at $9,100. Niemann ranks third for me in my recreated total driving stat and is also 13th for three-putt avoidance. The numbers are better than the form, as he has gained with his irons in 13 of 16 and off the tee in 10 of his past 12.

Alex Noren ($7,100) – Back-to-back top-10s for Alex Noren in his last two starts. The Swede is a great putter that can go low in these birdie shootouts, and while his proximity numbers might leave something to be desired, I do think his short game can clean up most of those mistakes.

Cameron Tringale ($7,000) – A lack of upside might hurt Cameron Tringale for a birdie shootout, but he is the 40th priced golfer in a field where he is a top-20 candidate. That is good enough for me to play him.

Additional Thoughts: Don’t say Jason Day… Don’t say Jason Day…Don’t say Jason Day…

$6,000 Range

Stewart Cink ($6,500) – Stewart Cink is the biggest advantage I have when looking at ownership versus model rank, and it amplifies when I use Cink’s upside as a weight. The American is sneaky long, and we still are looking at sub-one percent ownership. That is a potential recipe to win large-field GPPs

Carlos Ortiz ($6,200) – Irons have turned around for Carlos Ortiz as of late, gaining in eight of nine starts. His driver has seen a similar trajectory after recording a positive total in six of seven.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,400) – Davis didn’t make the main list because of ownership, Matt Jones ($6,300)

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The CJ CUP: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The Vegas swing continues this week as 78 golfers gather at The Summit for the CJ Cup. This week we have a no-cut event that features many top players which will provide plenty of value in the lower tiers. My focus will be on virtually all the main metrics (OTT, APP, ARG and PUTT) with a particular emphasis on APP and a slight bump up to ARG. As for secondary metrics, my first look will be to BOB and Par 5 scoring. Tune in to Tuesday’s Livestream with the PGA crew for plenty more on course dynamics and the entire field of players.

Collin Morikawa (10800) – He’s a member and I think that’s a bonus this week as he apparently spends a lot of time here. His play had been questionable through the FedEx Cup playoffs but he is rounding into form. APP game is elite and everything else checks out. Be careful in tournaments as ownership is likely high.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – When his game is on he can pile up the birdies with an elite ball striking game. He has been a little erratic as of late, but I’m willing to take a chance here with another young gun. I prefer him in GPP rather than cash.

Cameron Smith (9200) – He never grades out extremely well, but always seems to find a way to get it done. PUTT can get hot and all around short game is there. The BS could be better, but he’s coming into The CJ Cup with great form.

Jason Kokrak (8500) – He’s been shaky OTT and with the short game but this is a pure upside play (GPP only) as I know he can pile up the birdies if the APP and PUTT are in sync. He’s coming off an MC but he didn’t play too poorly with a score of 4 under.

Paul Casey (8200) – Not a huge fan of rostering Casey in general but the price seems right here. His short game may hold him back but his ball striking is solid and he’ll be able to score on the Par 5’s.

Aaron Wise (7400) – Great value here as his ball striking has been very good and he has somehow managed to turn around his PUTT. Let’s hope that lasts through the weekend at The CJ Cup. Be careful in GPPs as he’s likely to be chalky.

Maverick McNealy (7300) – Another guy who is from the area and a member at this course (along with Morikawa). He’s Top 25 in almost every metric I’m looking at over the last 36 rounds and he’s 6th OTT. Last week’s MC doesn’t really worry me.

Alexander Noren (7100) – Feels like a poor man’s Cam Smith in that he never rates out particularly well in my model but always seem to find a way to get it done. His short game is elite and allows him to overcome some shortcomings with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (7000) – At this price I like how he rates out in Par 5 scoring and with the PUTT. His OTT game was pretty bad but that is beginning to come into form.

Keegan Bradley (6900) – A high risk option due to recent average ball striking and a bad PUTT, but I think the price is too low for a guy who has shown consistent ball striking over his career and elite ball striking last season.

Kevin Streelman (6800) – Recent history shows that Streelman is a great bounce back candidate after an MC. He also happens to rate out pretty well in my model. Not really a big time scoring option in a no-cut event but I think the price is right here.

Jhonnatan Vegas (6300) – Checks all the boxes and finds himself inside the Top 15 last 36 rounds OTT, APP, BOB Gained and SG Par 5. He’s likely to be popular and we will go over plenty of pivots in the 6500 range and below on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 44-13.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3

This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.

Captains:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:

It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:

It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:

Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill

12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.

Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :

The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:

Emmanuel Sanders
Zack Moss
Dawson Knox
Cole Beasley
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mecole Hardman
Demarcus Robinson
Gabriel Davis
Byron Pringle
Harrison Butker
Tyler Bass
Josh Gordon
Jody Fortson

Kickers and defenses:

I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 5 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Adam’s Game x Game article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)

With King Henry being the de facto top option, James Robinson in a potential smash spot against the Titans, Swift against the Vikings, and possibly Tony Pollard becoming the huge chalk if Zeke misses time Aaron Jones’s beautiful matchup against the Bengals appears to be going overlooked completely and is sitting between 6-7% right now with the potential to go even lower depending on injury news in a few spots. Jones struggled last week but the Steelers defensive from is still solid and they play pass catching backs well enough to limit his upside last week. The Bengals though….Well they allowed 14 catches on 19 targets for 102 yards to Najee Harris and just gave up two TD’s on 78 yards to the Jags last week. This scenario screams GPP target and Jones will likely be my GPP pivot from Henry.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)

I refuse to be the guy who misses the Chubb ceiling game at sub 5% ownership. The last two weeks his volume has been there with 22 touches in each contest but he has missed the endzone in each game so for a player like him it is a disappointment. With no Landry the volume should stay where it is, his talent is undeniable and he has not gone 3 games without a score since Week 9 of 2019. The Chargers also happen to be the worst team in terms of rushing yards allowed on the slate (yes, worse than Houston) allowing 139.5 yards, and are 25th in rushing DVOA. Something has to give here.

Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)

Also Consider: Austin Ekeler (Cleveland has a ton of potential defensive injuries), Ezekiel Elliott

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)

Here we go again. Henry is in yet another smash spot and should be a staple in your cash game. I’m not going to waste my time or yours going through the why of this one. Henry against the Jags, lock it in your cash contests, and call it a day.

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)

I am a little nervous here but it appears that Urban Meyer has learned that you should not drop your rookie QB back 50 times a game and that having a beast like J-Rob carrying the load is a good thing. The great thing too as the Titans might have the worst defense in the NFL this year. No doubt they have the worst secondary. In each of the last two games, Robinson has gotten at least 20 touches and has been targeted no less than twice in any game this season while averaging 5 yards per carry. The Titan’s rushing yards allowed is a bit deceiving as the Jets can’t run if their life depended on it and Indi chose week three to abandon their run game. I might not get here personally because I am going to have a lot of Marvin Jones (Titans have allowed more 30+ yard passes than any team in the NFL), but if you are playing cash games and not using Marvin he needs to be in strong consideration.

D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)

If you are just checking the box score from last week you would assume that something happened with Swift as he finished the day with only eight carries and four catches on the day. But the truth is the Lions were the unfortunate team that got to play the Bears without Nagy calling the shots and they played an inspired football game. Swift actually saw a 73% snap share, the highest on the season. I fully expect him to get back to his 12-14 carries and 6-8 targets against a Vikings defense that has been hemorrhaging points to running backs. Chubb and Hunt combined for 169 yards on the ground last week, 88 to Carson and Collins, and 127 yards to Joe Mixon. They also have allowed one rushing TD in each game this year. The Lions are bad, no doubt. But, they are surprisingly competitive for those who have not had a chance to see them in action and Goff has looked much better than I expected so kudos to him for proving us all wrong this season. With this being a 50 total game with Vikings as 10 point favorites Swifty is going to get all of the work he can handle catching out of the backfield Sunday, making him PPR gold for your cash games.

Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)

Verify Dalvin Cook is out before locking him in but once you do you lock Mattison into your cash games and you do not think about it. Detroit has not been able to slow any running back this season much less stop.

Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)

Sucks that DraftKings priced him up but Damien throughout his career has produced whenever given an opportunity to start averaging over 15 points in PPR formats. In addition to that when trailing his yards per carry (4.7), yards per target (6.5), and catch rate (83.7%) all see an uptick when trailing and the Raiders should be able to take control of this contest as 5.5 point favorites. It is in no way sexy, but for cash games, the safe floor with a decent ceiling is exactly what you need for your cash game back.

Also Consider: Tony Pollard (if no Zeke, and he is a lock in that case), Chubba Hubbard, Najee Harris (tough matchup but he’s cash viable based on PPR value), Saquon Barkley

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

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GPP

Course – Narashino Country Club

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Favorite Cash Play– Xander Schauffele ($11,000)

$9,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Don’t be afraid to play some of these choices for above ownership consensus

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: I have given a deeper dive to Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) and Charley Hoffman ($8,500). I don’t mind fitting either into builds

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Roger Sloan ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,800), Chan Kim ($6,500), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), Adam Long ($6,300), Kazuki Higa ($6,500), Scott Vincent ($6,400), Rikuya Hoshino ($6,200), Kyle Stanley ($6,200), Wesley Bryan ($6,000) and Shaun Norris ($6,000)

Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5

Captains:

Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:

Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:

Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:

Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:

Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Javonte Williams, $5,000DK.$5,600:

Dalvin Cook, $7,700DK/$8,800:

D’Andre Swift, $6,300DK/$7,100FD:

WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

Cash:

Austin Ekeler, $7,900DK/$8,400FD:

Khalil Herbert, $4,600DK/$5,500FD:

Kareem Hunt, $6,200DK/$7,400FD:

Course – Summit Club

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Favorite Cash Play– Justin Thomas ($11,100)

$9,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($9,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) and Abraham Ancer ($9,100) are my three least favorite options in this range.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Harris English ($8,900) and Shane Lowry ($8,300) are playable in this range.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Don’t say Jason Day… Don’t say Jason Day…Don’t say Jason Day…

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,400) – Davis didn’t make the main list because of ownership, Matt Jones ($6,300)

Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3

Captains:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill

Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)

Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)

D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)

Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)

Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)

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