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The Sentry preview, set on the backdrop of the Plantation Course at Kapalua

It seems only fitting that the PGA Tour have dropped the “Tournament of Champions” part from the tournament title for The Sentry, our first preview of 2024. After all, this will now be the second consecutive year where the champion is not actually even here to defend their title. Cameron Smith was absent in 2023. Subsequently, Jon Rahm will not be here in 2024 as the latest and most significant defection to LIV Golf. That is a real shame not just for the PGA Tour but, most importantly, the fans. You can read more on my thoughts on the defection and what 2024 may hold here.

Before we dive into our Sentry preview proper, I’d like to take a paragraph to thank all my loyal followers in 2023. Especially, to all our WinDaily Sports subscribers. Obviously, there are costs associated with running a website and providing the best coverage of golf tournaments that we can. For those who supported me in that, please accept my heartfelt gratitude. You literally keep the lights on and, therefore, help us continue producing more great content.

Of course, this also paid off in a rather grand way for our Premium subscribers in 2023!
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and profit of +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

That follows a 2022, when we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour. It marks our 5th consecutive year of profitability; may 2024 bring another one!

The Sentry Preview

Plantation Course at Kapalua – Course Analysis

This is often a tricky event to cover. Chiefly, that comes down to the fact many golfers have only played sparingly since August. Some guesswork is required, and hope that we can use what we know to assist us in our search for a winning start to 2024.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays host to The Sentry (Tournament of Champions) as it has done since 1999, so a preview of the course may seem somewhat unnecessary. But, we have of course all been so focused on “growing the game” the last few years that I am sure there are lots of eager new golf fans ready to delve into their first tournament here.

First, note that this is a rare par 73 on the PGA Tour. Sitting at 7,596 yards, the course has 3 par 3s and 4 par 5s. That makes the course one of the longest on the PGA Tour.

The length is offset somewhat by many of the holes playing downhill. As such, driving distance is not the be all and end all here. Fairways are undulating, leading to many approach shots where the ball is above or below the feet. Also assisting are some of the widest fairways and the largest greens on the PGA Tour. Players can pull their driver out regularly, with % of fairways found the highest of all regular PGA Tour stops at 72.2%.

The huge green complexes averaging over 8,700 sq ft also pose less risk when approaching with a long iron than on other courses. There really lies the key to success. Finding the right area of the green. Making your fair share of putts is important too, at a course which has had a tendency to allow some low scores.

Preview Course Comps for The Sentry

Course form at Plantation is somewhat stickier than most PGA Tour courses. If you have played well here previously, there is a higher probability that you will do so again than at comparative venues. Further adding to this phenomenon is the transient nature of this field. Typically, the Sentry field has consisted only of the winners from the previous PGA Tour season. I suspect the correlation of previous success as a predictive factor should actually receive some uptick compared to first glance.

The strongest correlation is from The Masters. That comp passes the sense check. Augusta National features some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, actually just wider on average than at the Plantation course Kapalua. Again, fairways found hovers above 70% for Augusta National. Many approach shots are congruent to those seen here due the undulating fairways at both. Most obvious, Jon Rahm completed the double winning both in 2023. 2022 champion Cam Smith came mighty close to winning The Masters with a 2nd and 3rd in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Hero World Challenge host, Albany Golf Course, also is a decent guide. Played in The Bahamas and featuring a small but elite field, Albany has hosted the Hero World Challenge since 2015. The course provides parallels not only from the field assembled. The tropical and coastal elements lend itself well to Plantation. As a 7,309 yard par 72, driver is used heavily and we can see correlation through the top of the leaderboard. Rahm has won and finished runner-up at both. Morikawa has never finished worse than 7th at Plantation nor worse than 6th at Albany.

Weather

As the Sentry features a limited field, we can release our tournament preview article a little earlier in the week as there is less chance a significant weather edge will develop. Basically, the tee-times are over a shorter window. There is less of an advantage to be gained by any one player.

From our future forecasting, Thursday looks to be overcast with possibility of light showers to soften conditions and benign winds. Scoring should be good, and a fast start likely necessary to keep up with the pack. Friday should see some heavy winds arrive from midday, with gusts over 25mph. The winds remain for Saturday, while Sunday will settle. A low round should again be required on the final day of play.

Overall, the course does not pose much risk and has yielded some very low scores. The main defense for Plantation has always been the wind. We saw this in 2020 with a winning score or -14 being 20 strokes higher than the tournament record -34 set in 2022. With some wind in the forecast, I suspect a winning score in the low 20s should see the job done.

Sentry Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sentry preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for The Sentry, premium customers can find these here.

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Sungjae Im is our favourite play from our Sentry betting tips

Before getting into our betting tips for The Sentry, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

There are a few notables worth discussing first. Collin Morikawa holds clear appeal. Obviously, he has strong links to Hawaii and has never finished worse than 7th in 4 starts at The Sentry. However, the spectacular capitulation to hand Jon Rahm victory here could well play on his mind. I also held concerns about his ability to play in the wind, which is expected to get reasonably strong on two days of play. Therefore, he misses out on the Sentry betting tips.

Justin Rose held appeal, given his strong Masters record and excellent performances at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Similarly, Keegan Bradley was considered before his poor record at both Augusta National and Albany alongside poor showings in his last two Sentry starts saw others preferred.

The Sentry Golf Betting Tips

Results
25 units in, 60.31 units out

Updated 8 Jan 8:30PM ET
Jordan Spieth
3rd – Top 5 at +625
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Tony Finau
38th
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sungjae Im – The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite
5th – Top 5 at +825 (reduced to -117 due dead-heat)
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Sepp Straka
12th – Top 20 at +162
1pt E/W +6600 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +162 (William Hill)

Sahith Theegala – The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value
2nd – Top 5 at +2000 and Top 20 at +190
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +180 (William Hill)

We also gave out Theegala as First-Round Leader on the PGA Draftcast, which hit at 60/1!
Tune in on YouTube Tuesdays at 9PM ET as we give out our favourite DFS plays and free FRL bets.

The Sentry Betting Tips Player Profiles

Jordan Spieth – 3rd

It is likely fair to say that Spieth has been out of sorts for a couple of season now. In 2022, he finished in the Top 5 in just 13% of his starts and only really claimed victory at the RBC Heritage as others crumbled around him. Three of those were on our card that week, but I digress.

2023 was a winless season, but did see some improvement finishing in the top 5 in 21% of his starts. No doubt, he will be eager to begin 2024 on a positive note. The Plantation Course at Kapalua could prove the perfect antidote.

We spoke about the correlation from The Masters to The Sentry in our tournament preview article. And, we obviously know what Spieth does at Augusta National. His 2nd on debut was quickly followed by victory the following year and another runner up. He has added another two 3rd place finishes and a 4th in 2023. That means he has finished 4th or better in 60% of his starts at The Masters.

It is no surprise then that he won this tournament in 2016. Again, that came after a runner-up finish on first sight. He finished 9th or better in his first 4 starts here. Falling off the boil in 2022 and 2023 (21st and 13th respectively) coincides with his general regression in form over that period.

Of promise though was a return to form in December, finishing 6th at the Hero World Challenge. A mediocre 71 in the 3rd round put paid to his chances there, but it was a glimmer of hope that Spieth could kick-start 2024 in the best way possible.

Tony Finau – 38th

Next in our Sentry betting tips is Tony Finau. Given his propensity to be a perennial close finisher, he had been referred to as “T2 Tony” by some. Finau broke free of the shackles of that reputation in 2022.

Back-to-back wins that year were followed by a 2023 season where he again got over the finish line twice. The latter of those victories came at the Mexico Open over absent defending champion Jon Rahm. Vidanta Vallarta is far from the worst comp course. The wide open fairways, long irons, and low scoring are all common to what is required at Plantation.

Finau already holds a 9th and 7th at this tournament and boasts 3 top 10s at the Masters, where he has never missed the cut. However, the form at the Hero World Challenge is what really caught my eye. He holds a record around Albany of 2-10-7-7-4. That most recent 4th included holding the first round lead, with another 67 coming in the final round.

Much of the final result will come down to Finau’s ability to get the putter rolling. But, when he does so, he now wins golf tournaments. The putter again looked to be leaning towards the right direction towards the end of 2023, and a fast start to the season would not surprise at a course where he has always looked a likely sort.

Sungjae Im – 5th
The Sentry Betting Tips Favourite

I really like the number currently available around Sungjae Im this week. Sungjae was 5th on his first look at this course, a tournament where he also lead the field in SG: tee-to-green and actually lost strokes putting. He has subsequently finished 8th and 13th in his other two appearances here.

Of course, Im has also flashed at Augusta National. The runner-up finish on Masters debut was obviously eye-catching, but he has then gone on to add an 8th and 16th place finish there as well. He has only played the Hero World Challenge once, finishing 8th in 2022. There, he was able to overcome the 3rd worst opening round (74) to continually improve throughout the week.

Sungjae Im has always been a golfer who has promised more. It is perhaps surprising that he is still only 25 years old. For context, he is just 18 months older than Ludvig Aberg. The end of 2023 held much promise for Im. Outside a lackluster Tour Championship, he quietly finished 14th or better in his final 5 tournaments of the year. 2024 could well be the year he kicks on to bigger things.

Sepp Straka – 12th

Sepp Straka has cemented himself as one of the ultimate boom-or-bust plays in golf. When looking at longer odds, that is always going to hold some appeal and more-so in a reduced field size.

It was another fantastic year in 2023, most notable for winning the John Deere Classic before finishing runner-up at The Open Championship.

The Masters record is just ok, although he has made the cut in his two starts there. He arrives here off another recent runner-up finish in the Hero World Challenge at Albany. He overcame a mediocre even par opening round there, quickly finding his feet and finishing with an excellent 64 in the final round. Similar can be said for his single appearance here, where he finished 68-67 over the weekend and improved in each round.

Additionally, in that sole Sentry appearance he was 2nd in the field for SG: Approach. And it is that which we are buying into; his absolute ability to get red-hot with his irons and putter on his day.

Sahith Theegala – 2nd
The Sentry Betting Tips Best Value

Another longer odds selection with seemingly endless upside to close out our Sentry betting tips. Sahith Theegala secured his inaugural PGA Tour win towards the tail-end of 2023. It was a victory that many saw coming, with his notably aggressive style of play lending itself to top finishes or ending at the bottom half of the field.

Theegala struggled at this course in 2023. However, a deeper dive into his numbers that week reveal that he was actually 10th in the field for SG: Approach and 2nd worst for putting that week. Theegala is certainly an excellent putter, ranking 13th on the PGA Tour over the last 6 months. Additionally, some of his best putting performances have come on bermudagrass as we find here. Notably, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and RSM Classic come to mind.

Of course, then was the 9th on Masters debut. That really felt like a significant moment for Theegala in his fledgling career; a sign to all of us that he can truly holds the ability to compete with the best. That, when combined with his near perfect correlation to the ideal course fit for this track, makes the 80/1 currently available far too juicy to resist.

What a start to 2024!

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

Our results speak for themself.
2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 the combined total ROI was an EPIC +33% and +929.58 units.
Using just $10 per unit, you would have made over $9,000 in 2023!

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
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I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Jon Rahm announcing he signed with LIV Golf shocked the golfing world and disrupted LIV PGA Tour merger talks

In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.

Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.

It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?

Scenario 1: LIV PGA Tour merger confirmed in 2024

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.

What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.

The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.

Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.

Scenario 2: PGA Tour and Strategic Sports Group form a new deal

Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.

This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.

Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.

Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.

Scenario 3: LIV PGA Tour talks dissolve

This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.

Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.

It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.

The death of the journeyman golfer

Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.

In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.

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Our results speak for themself.
2022 we had 16 outright winners for a return of investment of +24% on the DP World Tour and +26% on the PGA Tour.
2023 we had 15 outright winners for a return of investment of +22% on the DP World Tour and +40% on the PGA Tour.
2023 total ROI was an EPIC +33% and +929.58 units.
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El Cardonal plays host to the World Wide Techonology Cahmpionship for the first time.

The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.

I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.

Qatar Masters Recap

A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.

It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.

Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.

El Cardonal Course Analysis

Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.

The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.

In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.

YouTube player

World Wide Technology Championship Course Comps

As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.

My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.

World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.

Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

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With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), Bri...

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ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we've had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We've successfully picked the winner at the Canadian...

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Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compel...

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What a fabulous week it was once again for our picks at The European Masters. Alexander Bjork went extremely close to victory, an imperious Ludvig Aberg denying him the win with a stunning final 5 holes. Aberg continues to impress and is surely the most exciting prospect in European golf since Hovl...

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Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

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Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

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Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

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