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Before we delve into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview, congratulations to Harris English backers at the Farmers Insurance Open. Over at WinDailySports, it is perhaps fair to feel a little aggrieved this week. Our best bet for the week was Ludvig Aberg at 12/1, who opened with an outstanding first round of 9-under. Bear in mind that English eventually won the tournament at just 8-under. Midway through the second round, Aberg’s odds had dropped as low as -160.

And then, the flu happened. Aberg caught the bug going around the field and was visibly struggling on course to just complete his round. 10 players withdrew from the tournament, the majority based on the illness.

It is one of those unfortunate moments that comes when betting on live sport. However, our course comps were completely on point once again and the statistics identified proved very useful in compiling a successful DFS week.

It is a Signature Event this week. This sees a limited field, the best in the game return, and $USD20m in prizes to be won. It is a very important event in the context of the season and a great opportunity to make some money for golfers and punters alike!

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Pebble Beach Golf Course Analysis

Our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview marks the last tournament in course rotation season. This tournament will see golfers alternate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Given only one round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played at Spyglass Hill, I will provide a brief preview only. As at Pebble Beach, the course is a short par 72 measuring just 7,041 yards. Unlike Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill is less exposed and features tree-lined fairways. Driving distance is more of an advantage there, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.

The reason is the quirky nature of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Pebble Beach is the shortest par 72 PGA Tour golf course at just 6,972 yards. It sees the largest reduction in driving distance to any other course. Cliffs and hazards determine that it simply can’t be overpowered by driver.

Take a look at the photo of the 8th hole below to see why:

Pebble Beach Golf Links hosts our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week

Pebble Beach Golf Links features numerous holes like this. Essentially, all golfers hit tee shots to the same area and play their approach shots there.

The protection of Pebble Beach comes from two key areas. One is the weather. The extremely exposed cliffs are at the mercy of the elements. Secondly, these are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. These greens are a minuscule 3,500 sq ft, which effectively play even smaller due to undulations and mounding.

Given the small size of the targets, around the green and putting see a boost this week. Golfers will miss greens this week! And the ability to have a superb short game and make your putts is vital to keep momentum.

This Key Statistic is Essential This Week

However, my advice would be that there is one statistic that has the largest correlation to success around Pebble Beach. And that is SG: APP from 100-150 yards.

Given the unique nature of the holes, we see a HUGE disparity in the number of approach shots from this range. Actually, it represents the greatest concentration of shots from a particular approach range we will experience all season.

1/3rd of shots will occur from 100-150 yards and 50% of all shots will occur from under 150 yards this week. Your ability to control your wedges is vital to finding yourself towards the top of the leaderboard this week. It also goes some way to explaining the struggles of Rory McIlroy here. If there is one gap in Rory’s game, it is his accuracy with his wedges. He has played this tournament twice, missing the cut and finishing a measly 66th in his other appearance.

This also supports the correlation with driving accuracy. The key to accuracy with wedges is your ability to control the spin generated. Doing so from the fairway is much easier than when you are in the rough.

Pebble Beach Golf Course Comps

Firstly, note that any prior course form is quite transitive here. This event has moved from a lesser full-field event to a signature event. Given their struggles to attract higher-end players, the field tended to change often depending on individual golfer’s status on the PGA Tour. I do think we can take benefit from players who played well here previously, especially if they have found success when putting on these poa annua greens which can be a little tricky.

The RSM Classic has proven a good guide to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It also features two golf courses, one more exposed and another played in-land with tree-lined fairways. Short game is imperative at both courses, and being seaside is another positive.

The other is the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links. This benefits for several reasons. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large reduction in driving distance and focus on placement off the tee. Greens are very small, resulting in precise iron play and short game being over-emphasised as a predictive factor.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week. Both Thursday and Friday, morning presents the best conditions. Winds will be lower before picking up in the afternoon, as well as making the most of any residual moisture in the ground which remains overnight.

If you were to draw any potential advantage, I believe it would be starting on Pebble Beach and playing your second round at Spyglass Hill. The winds currently forecast look to be ever so slightly higher on the Friday. As such, golfers may benefit from being a bit more sheltered on Friday by playing the Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.

You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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Before we delve into our Farmers Insurance Open preview, a hearty congratulations to Sepp Straka backers at The American Express. The victory marked his 3rd victory in as many years, a player surely in the frame to again represent Team Europe at Bethpage in the Ryder Cup this year given his immense upside.

WinDaily Sports contributor Sia Nejad was heavily backing Sepp Straka all week. He was duly rewarded with a 66/1 winner as well as a couple of best-round bets at big odds. Well done Sia!

The Farmers Insurance Open also delivered our best win of 2024, as I successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at MASSIVE odds of 125/1 with 8 places. Looking at our golf course comps below, you’ll understand why we think there is another long shot this year with similar credentials and odds.

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Torrey Pines plays host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Torrey Pines Golf Course Analysis

A reminder from our Farmers Insurance Open preview that we are firmly placed in course rotation season! This tournament will see the golfers alternate between the North and South courses over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.

Given only one round of the Farmers Insurance Open is played on the North course, I will provide a brief preview only. The North Course is much easier than the South Course. Not to say it is an absolute breeze given the prevalent coastal winds (see what I did there), but it is fundamental to take advantage of the minor relief the North course provides. All of the top 32 on the leaderboard last year shot under par on the North course. The worst score on the North course from the top 12 was a 3-under 69, with most going well under that total.

Part of the reason scoring on the North Course is so key is that the South Course is an absolute brute. To start with, the course is just plain long. Playing at 7,765 yards for a par 72, it is one of the top 5 longest courses on the PGA Tour. But that is just the surface of the issue.

Fairways are narrow, measuring on average just 25 yards across. Miss the fairway, and you’ll be greeted by incredibly penal 4in rough which won’t be cut during the event. Greens are reasonably small at 5,000 sq ft on average. They are firm, fast, and undulating. We also have the first instance of poa annua grass, which can be bumpy and difficult to read. This only gets worse as the day goes on, with greens becoming grainier and picking up marks from previous play.

Why Torrey Pines May Play A Little Differently in 2025

Given the above course analysis for our Farmers Insurance Open preview, there are some key statistics you can hone in on to provide yourself an advantage. Driving distance is a real asset at Torrey Pines. It is not to say you can’t be successful if you are short but accurate off the tee. However, your margin for error is small and the path to victory is narrow. Only one golfer in the last 15 years hit over 80% driving accuracy at this course.

Previously, drivers who are both long and accurate have had a stronger advantage. There was one specific note from the Course Superintendent this week which stood out for me. He stated, “This is the driest winter he has experienced in his nine years with the last significant rain event in early April.” This will only make the test even trickier. Fairways will be near impossible to hold for the entire field, as balls will run through on firm fairways into taht juicy 4in rough.

Essentially, I am less focused on any driving accuracy this week. I envision a case where simply being long is enough. Much like Bryson DeChambeau used this tactic to his advantage in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot.

Along with driving distance, I think the Clubhead Speed is an interesting statistic to consider. The benefit of this is twofold. One, they will be longer drivers of the golf ball. If you are going to miss the fairway anyway, it is better to be closer to the green. This is especially true with greens small and firm. The ability to approach greens with a more lofted club will be an advantage. Secondly, the extra thick rough this week means that a higher clubhead speed will mean a greater chance of advancing the ball.

Torrey Pines Golf Course Comps

Torrey Pines has a quite sticky course history. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have usually had a few opportunities to preview the course before finding success.

As a regular US Open venue, and US Open-like conditions this week, you can apply a blank filter on performance at all US Open venues. It was probably a little unsurprising that our 150/1 selection here in 2024 Matthieu Pavon then finished 5th at the US Open later that year.

Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot are all akin to the test likely faced by the golfers this week. Part of our success in finding Pavon came from his performance on key long driving courses on the DP World Tour. Emirates Golf Club, Albatross Golf Resort, and Dom Pedro shape as options.

Particularly good guides are found at Jumeirah Golf Estates and Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. Jumeirah Golf Estates is where Pavon finished 5th to pip Rasmus Hojgaard to the post with the final PGA Tour card for finishing top 10 on the Race to Dubai rankings. Pavon had a 2nd and then a win at the Open de Espana, where we also successfully tipped him at 80/1.

Jon Rahm also links those two courses nicely. He is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, with a superb record of W-29-5-2-7-W (US Open)-3-7-10. He is a three-time winner at the Jumeirah Golf Estates (with a measly 5th in his other attempt), and has two wins in Madrid with a record of W-17-W-9-2.

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our Farmers Insurance Open preview this week. However, I do think there is an option to find a weather edge of sorts. Of the opening two rounds, Thursday looks by far the most windy. Winds are set to prevail at 10-12mph but gusts are predicted to top 30mph.

Now, you might think the idea would be to avoid the South Course in windy conditions. However, I take the other route. The North Course is fundamentally key to compiling a score at this event. The South Course will play very tough irrespective of what the weather is doing. Therefore, I would much rather my players for the North Course in the calmer winds forecast for Friday. The earlier that players are out the better for both days, but particularly Thursday when the winds will begin to kick in from approximately 11:30am onwards.

Heavy winds are again forecast for Saturday with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which may linger into Sunday morning.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

The windy Torrey Pines Golf Course, host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Farmers Insurance Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.

You’ll gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports covers. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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Firstly, a very Happy New Year to all our wonderful regular and new readers. And welcome back to full field golf tournaments for 2025!

Personally, I am excited for what 2025 will bring after a couple short weeks of R+R for myself. It was a big year, covering both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in full as well as moving house twice and buying a new home. All wonderful things!

From my perspective, the FedEx Cup Fall series is improved on prior years. There seems to be more on the line, a final chance for some favourites and regular names to retain PGA Tour playing privileges. But, the reality we all realise is fields are decidedly weaker than what we experience on the rest of the schedule. So, it is wonderful to have a few more well-known names joined by some up and coming talent this week in Honolulu.

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

Profits were down on 2022 (ROI 24.9%) and 2023 (ROI +32.7%). This is easily understandable. It came down to one golfer, who you might have heard of, named Scottie Scheffler.

When a golfer wins 56% of his tournament starts from March onwards, all as a very short single odd favourite, it makes turning a profit all the more difficult. The vast majority of golf punters ended the year in a loss. So, I am really proud to have delivered this result for our Premium customers in a tricky year.

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Every year, Sony Open previews I read will immediately refer to trends. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “8 of the last 11 winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior.” My advice is to approach these with caution. Remember, correlation does not necessarily mean causation!

Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players on the PGA Tour from the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and, often, win in a typically weaker field.

Certainly, I acknowledge there can be a modicum of advantage gained in having played the week prior. Golfers get the chance to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust.

However, I do believe this trend is over-played. Punters and DFS players often completely end up excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That can be seen as an overreaction, to what I regard as a tentative link at best.

Waialae Country Club hosts our Sony Open preview

Waialae Country Club Course Analysis

In poker, it is often spoken about playing the man not the cards. My advice this week is to play the course, not the trend!

Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is starkly different to last week’s host at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Arctic references may not seem as applicable in these warm climes of Hawaii, but the courses couldn’t be more polar opposite.

Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 6th in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees and doglegs in both directions. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. This grass really grabs the club and can produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. This may be emphasised with some wind in the forecast and I predict we also see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold due some rain.

Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than almost any other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.

Wai’alae Country Club Course Comps

Make sure you take a strong look at those who have found prior success at this golf course. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin, followed by Waialae Country Club.

Keep your eye on players who have played well on other shorter courses. Particularly, those with dog legs in both directions and by the sea with higher winds. RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.

El Camaleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. That was before course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in a tropical environment.

Weather

To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Originally, it did seem a significant weather edge would develop. Thursday look set for thunderstorms, heavy rains, and high winds. This was likely to have resulted in an advantage for those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM, as they were likely to have delays and see those golfers get to play majority of their opening rounds on the calmer Friday.

However, those predictions have largely subsided. Thunderstorms now look set to arrive later on Thursday evening after play has concluded. I do still prefer the Thursday PM/Friday AM times as they will get lower winds Thursday afternoon and softer conditions on Friday after overnight rain.

Make sure you are honing in on the key approach numbers listed above. I also give a boost to SG: ATG and SG: Putting over typical tournaments at Waialae, with a higher likelihood of missed greens and needing to scramble to maintain momentum with par saves.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

Sony Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

It was so popular that we brought it back!
For the start of a new golf season, we have extended our Black Friday special offer on our premium memberships to celebrate PGA Tour golf returning.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code BLACKFRIDAY and get your first week for just $1.99, followed by 50% off your monthly sub!

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

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