Tag:

golf dfs

The Open Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The final major of the season is upon us and it will be at a course steeped in tradition at St. Andrews. The Open hasn’t been played here since 2015 so there isn’t much by way of recent course history, but we will have plenty to offer all week from the team to make sure you’re zeroed in on the right players. That includes our PGA Draftcast Tuesday night for opinions on all the golfers and @TeeOffSports famous course breakdown. As for me, I’ll be zeroed in on APP and PUTT with a particular emphasis on lag putting and wedge game. Be sure to be in our Discord leading up to the event for chats with all the experts and for all weather information. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks:

Jordan Spieth (10000) – Really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the RBC Heritage in March. Has great Open Championship experience and is coming off a T10 finish last week at the Scottish, but was in position to win on Sunday. Has the skill set and intelligence to navigate this course to a win.

Cameron Smith (9500) – Not a guy who typically sits atop models, but always manages to get the ball in the hole better than most. He put together a nice weekend at The Scottish to finish T10 although a lot of that was PUTT reliant. His periodic wayward OTT game shouldn’t penalize him too much, and even if it does, he makes up for it with APP and short game (which includes elite wedge game and lag putting along with Jordan Spieth).

Patrick Cantlay (9400) – Was hard to determine if the Sunday meltdown at The Travelers would seep into the next few tournaments, but it looks like its a distant memory for the robotic Patrick Cantlay. He finished 4th at the Scottish Open and gained across all metrics, with a particularly splendid APP and short game play (along with being a great lag putter). That’s the mix I want to see this week at The Open Championship.

Shane Lowry (9300) – The APP play and PUTT haven’t been quite as elite as we’re accustomed to with Lowry, but this feels like a good setup for him to bounce back across those metrics that he’s typically elite in. I like him potentially getting overlooked for once.

Louis Oosthuizen (8800) – Nothing to show for on the PGA Tour this year, but the form appears to be right as he has finished inside the Top 10 in his two LIV Tour events and in the BMW International Open. Certainly has the game to succeed here just like he did in 2015 and 2010.

Tony Finau (8400) – For some reason it always feels risky to trot out Finau, but the metrics tell a different story. He has been elite on APP and ARG and the PUTT seems to have turned a corner from a bad stretch earlier in the year. OTT isn’t bad either and all of this spells pretty great value for Tony. Likely a chalky option at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8000) – Short game can be a pretty big problem for Niemann, but I’m willing to take a chance on him because I think the upside is elite. Outside of a terrible tournament at The Travelers, he’s been managing solid finishing positions all season.

Max Homa (7900) – Max gets it done across every metric and made a charge toward the lead Sunday afternoon at the Scottish. A great price but likely one of the chalkier plays on the slate as the price tag is at least 600 short.

Seamus Power (7400) – He’s been excellent with the BS over his last four tournaments and has shown the ability to pop with the short game. Very good value at this price.

Patrick Reed (7300) – He’s made 8 of 9 PGA Tour cuts dating back to The Players. The finishing positions haven’t been great and the metrics don’t tell a great story either, but I think Reed’s got the game to compete at The Open.

Talor Gooch (7300) – Two Top 10s in his two LIV events juxtaposed with an MC at The U.S. Open. But Gooch has been pretty good all year, and that includes a 20th at The PGA Championship and a 14th at The Masters. Decent contrarian play here.

Ryan Fox (7100) – Last week’s 8500 becomes this week’s 7100 and it now feels like you’re getting Fox at a bargain price. He fought hard to make the cut last week and continues to make cuts. Plenty of upside here at this price.

Sahith Theegala (7100) – He’s really starting to put the entire game together as the BS and the short game have been really good in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. This is an up and coming star that doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the moment. I also like Woodland, Tringale and Wise in this range.

Chris Kirk (6800) – Kirk should be in the 7k range given his recent form. He’s been solid on APP and he can certainly get hot with the short game. He also happens to rate out very well with the wedges and lag putting.

Joohyung Kim (6500) – He’s a got a win and six Top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour and it appears that prowess has translated nicely onto the PGA Tour with a Top 20 at The Byron Nelson, 23rd at The U.S. Open and 3rd at The Scottish Open.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 55-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Scottish Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Rahm leads the field when it comes to GIR percentage, total driving and strokes gained in the wind and is one of only two players in the 10k range to grade as a positive value against ownership (Scheffler is the other).

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I don’t think you can go wrong with Scheffler, Rahm or Thomas, although Thomas does have the most volatility and highest ownership from the trio. For that reason, Rahm and Scheffler are my preferred targets.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – Decisions will have to be made in GPP contests, but Xander Schauffele might be the safest player on the board.

Will Zalatoris ($9,300) – Rumors are that the course is going to play more challenging than usual, which is perfect for a golfer like Will Zalatoris

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) – Matsuyama ranks top-five in ball-striking and is also the best leverage option I have of any golfer $9,000 or higher.

Other Targets: Sam Burns ($9,200), Cam Smith ($9,100) are both in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($8,700) – The ownership is not matching Sungjae Im’s potential. I’ll take the leverage that is presenting itself.

Other Thoughts: I will have Joaquin Niemann ($8,600) and Corey Conners ($8,300) in the player pool, but I am out on most other targets in this territory when talking about GPP builds.

$7,000 Range

Justin Rose ($7,900) – I’ve lessened some on my appeal for Justin Rose as the week has gone on, but the upside is there, and the ownership looks great.

Brian Harman ($7,700) – Harman is one of the better values on the board and should provide safety for the price.

Marc Leishman ($7,600) – GPP-only. Super volatile. I wouldn’t play him for more than six or seven percent if mass-entering builds.

Chris Kirk ($7,400) – Kirk has gained with his driver in 15 consecutive starts

Gary Woodland ($7,300) – Woodland is quickly becoming one of my favorite targets on the board.

Jason Kokrak ($7,300) – Like Marc Leishman, consider this a volatile pick that does have top-10 equity. If choosing between the two, I prefer Kokrak.

Luke List ($7,200) – List gained over 13 shots ball-striking during his past start. The slower greens might help his usually poor putting stroke.

Additional Thoughts: Keith Mitchell ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500), Aaron Rai ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,400), Cameron Tringale ($7,200), Harris English ($7,100), Si Woo Kim ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Matt Wallace ($6,700), Alex Smalley ($6,600), Wyndham Clark ($6,500), Garrick Higgo ($6,500), Guido Migliozzi ($6,300)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2022 Genesis Scottish Open Golf Betting Tips: Your Weekly Golf Deep-Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Another winner! What a run we have been on of late. We secured our 9th outright winner of the year as we picked up back-to-back winners with J.T. Poston going wire-to-wire for us at the John Deere Classic at 50/1. Of course, following on from the 65/1 hit on Haotong Li the week prior we now have a three-peat on the cards at this week’s Scottish Open.

To compliment the win, we also had Fabrizio Zanotti at the Irish Open who held the lead at various points of the tournament and entered the final round just one shot back. Eventually finishing 4th, we cashed bets on a place pay out of $13.17 (after ties) and a Top 10 at $8.00 odds.

Various others featured throughout the tournaments. At the John Deere, Cam Davis was 8th and Mark Hubbard 13th to come agonisingly close to place payouts. In Ireland, Sami Valimaki finished with a final round -7 and contended for a Top 20 having been tipped at triple-figure odds as did Sean Crocker. Ewen Ferguson was one shot off the lead midway through the 2nd round before one errant drive ended in an unplayable position. Back to the tee, in what led to a quadruple bogey, and an unfortunate tumble from 5th to missing the cut on the number mainly resulting from that one poor shot. Golf can be a game of the finest of margins.

An exciting event at the Scottish Open this week in one of the strongest fields of the year, with 14 of the world’s top 15 players present. Long planned before LIV Golf came on the scene, this week is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour at a very welcome time following a rather lacklustre LIV event in Portland. Who should you bet for the Scottish Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

The Scottish Open this week is held at The Renaissance Club. This Tom Doak design is traditionally a 7,237-yard par-71. However, this week sees the par-5 7th hole reduced to a very long 505-yard par-4. With a fair chunk of yardage also eaten up by two of the five par-3s being very short (147-yards and 161-yards), this means many reasonably long par-4s greet the players this week. This will see a disproportionate number of shots played at over 200 yards, so proximity to pin for approaches over 200 yards is certainly part of the receipt to success here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-AxrdWym3Q

Typical links features abound with large undulating greens, fescue grass running much slower as well as hiding multiple breaks, and deep pot bunkers. As with all links courses, scrambling and putting will be essential with missing greens an inevitability. Rough can be thick with extremely long fescue in places and hitting a flyer a real risk if missing the fairway. Additional bunkering has also been added to several fairways, so a bomb and gouge strategy is not necessarily the sole path to victory.

I was able to ask Will Zalatoris about his thoughts on the course this year. He commented it will certainly play more difficult with those additional bunkers adding a challenge off the tee, keeping the ball in the fairway at a premium, and the higher winds expected. A winning score of the likes seen in 2021 and 2019 seems very unlikely, and something between 12-16 under seems realistic.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1544605855558971392?s=20&t=fXye1105CjUvig_Nms5WJg

Weather

It looked for some time like a weather advantage may develop. However, as the week has gone on, it has become apparent that no significant edge to the draw seems to exist (although finding wind-positive players will be essential).

Thursday AM should provide some of the softest conditions of the week, with rain Wednesday along with the normal morning dew benefiting the early risers. Prevailing winds of 11-12mph and gusts between 15-18mph will be brisk enough. Thursday PM will see winds increase, as well as the ground drying out and becoming firmer as the day develops. Winds will peak at prevailing 16-21mph and gusts of 22-26mph.

Friday AM provides stiffer breezes than the previous day, forecast for prevailing winds of 14-18mph and gusts of 21-26mph. This will continue to increase throughout the day with Friday PM reaching some of the highest winds of the tournaments at 19-22mph prevailing and 28-33mph gusts. expect high winds to continue in the weekend.

There are positives and negatives to both sides of the draw. Thursday AM/Friday PM get softer, calmer conditions in round 1 only to be greeted by some of the most severe winds Friday afternoon. Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will avoid the worst winds on Friday afternoon. However, they have higher winds on both Thursday afternoon and on Friday morning, as well as not benefitting from any rain.

A draw bias may still develop in this changeable part of the world. The 2019 Scottish Open provides the best guidance, as the winds were not only higher that year but also from the prevailing westerly direction. 2021 and 2020 not only saw lower winds, but an atypical easterly wind.

https://www.windy.com/56.054/-2.808?55.704,-2.807,8,m:feAaf4u

Related Course Form

With links golf providing such a unique test of golf, and a challenge barely seen on the PGA Tour, I have provided some additional courses when considering correlating form.

– The Renaissance Club (particularly 2019)

– Ballyliffin Golf Club (links course, hosted 2018 Irish Open)

– Mount Juliet Estate (host of Irish Open 2022 and 2021)

– St Andrews Old Course and Kingsbarns Golf Links (rotate for the Alfred Dunhill Links and both traditional links courses)

– Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews (traditional links course, host of 2020 Scottish Championship and 2021 Hero Open)

– Yas Links (host of Abu Dhabi Championship, is always windy and exposed. Designed by Kyle Phillips who made Kingsbarns)

– Bernardus Golf (another Kyle Phillips design, host of the Dutch Open 2022 and 2021)

– Doha Golf Club (host of Qatar Masters 2022 and 1998-2019, strong correlation to performance on links tracks and always very windy)

– Verdura Golf Course (host of Sicilian Open, links style course along the coast and wind exposed and again designed by our friend Kyle Phillips)

– Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course (host of Portugal Masters, which has strong leaderboard form links to this course)

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Tommy Fleetwood 2pts E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Tyrrell Hatton 1pt E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Tyrrell Hatton 2pts Top 10 $6.00 (various)

– Aaron Rai 1pt E/W $70.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)

– Aaron Rai 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (Bet365)

– Lucas Herbert 1pt E/W $80.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)

– Lucas Herbert 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365) and 2pts Top 20 $4.20 (Bet365)

– Gary Woodland 0.5pts E/W $90.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Gary Woodland 2pts Top 10 $9.00 (various)

Player Profiles

Tommy Fleetwood

You may recall during my recent appearance on PGA Draftcast following Haotong Li, that part of his struggles came through COVID-19 and travel difficulties associated. Fleetwood, in many ways, has a similar story to tell.

Tommy was deeply affected by the travel restrictions and his game suffered as a result. A smattering of top 10s in 2020 and 2021 were a rarity with finishes of 30th or higher a far too frequent occurrence for the talented Englishman.

2022 has begun to see a return of form, with a 14th at The Masters and 5th at the windy PGA Championship beginning to suggest we may soon the best of Fleetwood once again on the biggest stages. Along with an elite short game, Fleetwood is 24th for par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards.

A proven wind player, the links form is exceptional. Most easily identifiable is the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with an impressive formline: 5-2-13-15-25-2-5-7. Complimenting this is a runner-up finish here in 2019, in perhaps the most comparable to conditions this week, as well as a 26th in 2021.

Tyrrell Hatton

I’ll start by saying that one of the few reasons we are able to obtain Hatton at this price is his approach play has been truly dreadful in the last three tournaments. That may make for unappealing reading, but it is a simple fact.

What I could not overlook was the longer-term stats, which are worthy of consideration here. Hatton is 25th for proximity this season for approaches over 200 yards, 4th for birdie or better percentage for 200+ yards, 42nd for SG: ATG and 5th for SG Putting this year.

A familiar look at links courses may be what he needs to return the ball-striking to his usual standards. Again, the links form is elite. Two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship his form in the last 5 tournaments reads: W-W-3-15-2. He holds finishes of 14th and 18th here and a 5th and 6th at The Open Championship.

Hatton’s best performances this year have also come in the wind. 6th at the Kyle Phillip’s designed Yas Links, he also finished 4th in Dubai, 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 13th at The Players Championship, and 13th at the PGA Championship all in windy conditions.

Aaron Rai

Those who follow my tips will know that last week I was extremely close to selecting Rai at the Irish Open. My only reason for fading was the sheer amount of travel and golf he had undergone in the week.

Rai competed in all 4 rounds at the Travelers Championship, and he jumped on a plane to Scotland for the Open Qualifiers, an enduring test of 36 holes in one day. He played extremely well, making a three-man playoff to decide the final three spots only for the other two to qualify. He then travelled to Ireland and would have experienced a disrupted lead into the tournament.

I suspected that, despite the excellent play, that Rai may fade from the workload involved in this exercise. He immediately started the 1st round with 6 birdies in 10 holes and was certainly doing his utmost to make me regret fading him. He eventually finished 9th in a strong showing, again going agonisingly close to securing one of the three Open Championship qualifying spots on offer.

Rai has always been regarded as an excellent ball-striker, but he does his best work with his long irons. He is 31st this season for proximity from 200+ yards and 31st for par-4 efficient between 450-500 yards.

The final three spots to The Open are on offer here. No doubt that Rai will have his eyes on one of them, at a tournament where he won in 2020 under the most similar conditions.

Lucas Herbert

Lucas Herbert was my first bet of the week upon market open. The 80s on offer having been quickly snapped up, although he is available at 70s in spots if you are willing to hunt for him.

As you know, I tipped Herbert a couple times earlier this year. In all instances, it is because he is arguably the best wind player in the world. His wins have come at a very windy Dubai Desert Classic, in 35mph winds at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and in the 2021 Irish Open.

https://twitter.com/acaseofthegolf1/status/1453756918179278849?s=20&t=fXye1105CjUvig_Nms5WJg

This year, we saw a 7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he rose through the field shooting the lowest round of the day in the windiest conditions. He cashed a $15.00 Top 10 for us there and Herbert then duly cashed another ticket for us at juicy Top 30 odds of $9.50 at the PGA Championship, despite being on the wrong side of a decent weather draw. The only player better in the afternoon groups of the first round, when the worst of the wind was on offer, was Justin Thomas who beat Herbert by one stroke and eventually won the tournament.

Herbert has just finished 9th at the Irish Open last week for a rebound in form and has 2 x consecutive 4th placed finishes at the Scottish Open for 2021 and 2020. In other correlating form, he has a 3rd from one appearance at the Sicilian Open and a 9th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Herbert makes his shots with the short-game, where he sits 15th for SG: ATG and 2nd SG: Putting this season. I appreciate that punters are often, and correctly, cautious of short-game statistics driving performance given how volatile these metrics can be. But Herbert is elite in these areas of the game and can be trusted in all elements around the green, especially on a windy course where this will be vital.

Basically: the best wind player in the world, excellent course history, a top 10 last week, an elite short-game, and he is 80/1. We are on.

Gary Woodland

Finally, I will wrap up this week’s headliners with a speculative play on Gary Woodland.

The 2019 US Open Champion arrives in Scotland following an excellent showing at a tough US Open, where he finished 10th at The Country Club in Brookline. Links form is hard to come by for the majority of USA based players, but Woodland does have the benefit of having made the cut at 7/10 Open Championships to at least suggest he is not averse to these conditions.

Some of Woodland’s best performance this year have come in the wind. Notably a 5th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (denying us a 70/1 winner with a double-bogey, bogey finish), and 8th at a windy Valero Texas Open.

Woodland is long and straight off the tee, but also has excellent control of his ball-flight and the ability to keep the ball low with his signature stingers shots will suit the wind and firm conditions on offer here. Sitting 14th for proximity from 200+ yards, 11th for par-4 efficiency 450-500 yards, and 15th for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards all point to a strong debut at this course.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

2022 Irish Open Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Who should you bet at the Irish Open? This is your weekly deep dive and golf betting tips.

A fantastic week again for our golf betting tips last week again, delivering our 8th winner of 2022 with Haotong Li cashing the outright tickets for us at 65/1! It was a dream scenario at the BMW International Open, as Haotong not only went wire-to-wire but we also managed to secure 2nd place Thomas Pieters who lost the playoff after a dreadful chip and a spectacular putt saw Li score the win.

With this 1-2 finish, the outright win money alongside full place payouts for both Haotong Li and Thomas Pieters now sees my DP World Tour tips for 2022 sitting at an ROI of a whopping +42%.

It was a dream scenario to have both players in the playoff, and sit back to simply enjoy one of the most emotional victories of recent times. The outpouring of emotion was absolutely justified and very moving. This was a golfer who went from 32nd in the world rankings to outside the top 500 in the space of 18 months, completely lost his game with difficulties travelling to see his family in China through COVID taking a significant toll, and leading to nearly hanging up the clubs just 10 months ago. The comeback was fabulous to watch and a compelling story.

We enter a fantastic run of events on the DP World Tour with the Irish Open this week, the joint tour event at the Scottish Open, all culminating in the 150th Open Championship to be held at St. Andrews. This should be one of the best stretches of golf for the year and one I am excited to cover as we look to continue our wonderful run.

Course Analysis

The Irish Open does move sporadically to a number of courses and returns to the site of last year’s iteration at Mount Juliet Estate Golf Course. Alongside the 2021 rendition, there is history at this venue having held the 1993-1995 events as well as the American Express Championships in 2002 and 2004.

Previous winners here have included some of the legends of the game. Nick Faldo defeated Jose Maria Olazabal when completing a three-peat of Irish Open victories, followed by Bernhard Langer, and Sam Torrance. Ernie Els and Tiger Woods winning the two PGA Tour events held here only add to a star-studded list of golfing legends.

The course, contrary to some first impressions when thinking of an Irish course, is actually a parkland course situated a few miles south of Kilkenny in the South-East of Ireland. The Jack Nicklaus design is a medium length 7,264 yard par 72 with a traditional split of 4 par 5s and 4 par 3s. Three of those par 5s are reachable in two by the majority of the field, with the other par 5 potentially reachable by some of the longer hitters. 7/10 of the Par 4s sit in the 400-450 yard range, which is basically at or slightly below average length.

Fairways are fairly generous. However, driving accuracy is at a premium with tree-lined fairways and plentiful water hazards threatening to cause losing multiple strokes a real possibility for anyone errant off the tee. As often seen on Nicklaus courses, bunkers are also plentiful and approach will also be at a premium.

Alongside last year’s event providing guidance, I have pulled a few course results to find correlations and found some good trends in performance to the 2021 leaderboard with the following events:

Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Galgorm Castle (host of 2020 Irish Open as well as some Challenge Tour events)
Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club (produced strong links to the 2021 leaderboard)
Dubai Desert Classic (Winner Lucas Herbert having won at both courses, as well as Richard Bland performing well at both)

Overall, I am looking for positive driving accuracy as well as approach play performance. Scoring on the par 5s is essential and provided a strong correlation to results around here. The greens feature subtle breaks and a golfer who has the ability to hit a hot streak with the putter will be needed on a course where we can expect the winning score to sit in the -17 to -22 bracket.

Weather

A large amount of rain has fallen over the past two weeks in Kilkenny and the course is playing softer than desired from reports I have read. This should hopefully aid some of the approach play metrics as required on this track, and as a mid-length course does not pose too much concern for shorter hitters.

More rain is expected Thursday morning with some chance of a drizzle in the afternoon as well. Wind is consistent throughout the day, with 6-8mph prevailing and 14-17mph gusts not holding too many fears.

Friday afternoon tells a different story, with the morning providing by far the calmer conditions. Morning groups will enjoy a calm 6-7mph prevailing with light gusts of 12-15 mph. Friday PM looks to deliver winds prevailing at 12-16mph with gusts up to 25-30mph. More wind over the weekend remains a possibility.

This does look an advantage to the Thursday PM/Friday AM groups.

https://www.windy.com/52.524/-7.188?52.139,-7.191,8,m:e6HafXc

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

(All E/W with Bet365, 5 places at 1/4 odds)

Richie Ramsay 1pt E/W $61.00

Guido Migliozzi 0.5pt E/W $67.00
Guido Migliozzi 1pt Top 10 $8.00

Fabrizio Zanotti 0.5pt E/W $76.00
Fabrizio Zanotti 1pt E/W $8.00

Sean Crocker 0.5pt E/W $126.00
Sean Crocker 1pt Top 20 $6.00

Sami Valimaki 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Sami Valimaki 1pt Top 20 $7.00

Ewen Ferguson 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Ewen Ferguson 1pt Top 20 $7.00

First, I will say that Lowry is a very worthy favourite at the top of the board as a golfer who sits 4th in the world for SG: Total over the last 3 months. He is clearly the class here, but at odds of 10s since narrowing to 8-9s he is fairly priced and represents little positive expected value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu9qJNWuQM4

I will also note that I was very, very close on Aaron Rai. My only misgiving preventing actually tipping him was the amount of travel and golf he has already played this week. After the Travelers, where he played the weekend, he flew directly to Scotland to attempt to qualify for The Open Championship on Tuesday.

He very nearly did, losing in a 3 way playoff with the other 2 qualifying. Qualifying is a long day, 36 holes and around 12 and a half hours from start to finish. It also means little preparation for this week’s event having arrived here on Wednesday at the earliest. On top of a lot of travel halfway around the world, it was just enough to cause me concern at the relatively short odds on offer for a golfer I otherwise love here.

Player Profiles

Richie Ramsay

With some obvious favourites at the top of the board, at relatively fair and short odds, we find ourselves in the mid-range prices to start our tips.

Ramsay has fairly elite course form and corresponding course performances are excellent. A 3rd at The Belfry in the first week of May at a very visually and statistically similar course to Mount Juliet points to good recent form as well as the type of track Ramsay can perform well at. The recent 15th at the Soudal Open also coming at a track where driving accuracy is at a premium. This is a real strength of Richie Ramsay’s game, having performed at or above field average for driving accuracy at all bar 2 events in the last two years.

When we add in a 6th place at Emirates Golf Club, a previous win and 8th at Crans-sur-Sierre, a 33rd at 2020 Irish Open host Galgorm Castle, and a 4th at this event last year, we have one of the strongest related course profiles in the field.

The Scotsman is not in The Open field and will obviously have the added incentive of trying to secure a top 10 here to qualify to the “home of golf” hosted in his nation. The 13th place finish last time out at last week’s BMW International Open came in a low-scoring affair, where a very consistent scorecard saw all his rounds under par (68-68-70-68), and provides some welcome confidence arriving at a track where he was right in contention last year.

Guido Migliozzi

Following a dreadful stretch of golf dating back to September 2021, we are finally seeing a return to form for the highly talented 25-year-old Italian. The 10th place finish at the Dutch Open towards the end of May were the first sparks of life. A resurgence was then seen in full on his last outing at the US Open, where he gained across the board to finish a highly respectable 14th.

Migliozzi has been an excellent putter throughout his career and has gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 appearances. Of those, several of these events have seen gains of 5 strokes or more with the flat-stick. The subsequent bump in his approach play, alongside improvements in driving accuracy, now show promising signs for the ball-striking from a two-time DP World Tour winner.

A third victory was very much on the cards in 2021, where he lost in a playoff to Richard Bland (who has also played well here) at The Belfry. Alongside that correlating form, a 7th last year at Crans-sur-Sierre also provided further strength to Migliozzi’s case. The early afternoon tee-time for Migliozzi is ideal, meaning he will be the 3rd group on the course Friday morning and hopefully able to avoid the very worst of the winds that afternoon.

Fabrizio Zanotti

We are seeing a great spike in Zanotti’s performance of late, as he enters this week sitting 7th in this field for SG: Tee-to-green and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. Highly accurate with the driver, Zanotti has gained accuracy off the tee on the field at every event since May 2021. Gaining multiple strokes on approach when recently finishing in 8th place at a similar course at The Belfry, as well as finishing 8th for SG: Approach last week, all indicate a golfer entering his best recent form. Sitting 8th on the DP World Tour this season for Par 5 scoring only adds further to the credentials.

Zanotti can spike with the putter, including multiple strokes at the bentgrass green when finishing 18th in Dubai earlier this year. 33rd here at last year’s Irish Open came following a missed cut, and corresponds with other Irish form with a 7th in the 2020 rendition at the similar parkland course of Galgorm Castle. Alongside a 3rd and 16th at Crans-sur-Sierre, corresponding form jumps out all over the page for him.

The 75/1 on offer is fantastic value for a golfer who has huge upside if he can bring his best putting this week, with the PM/AM tee-times an added advantage to make the weekend.

Sean Crocker

We enter the triple figure odds with another talented youngster returning to form, with the 25-year-old having finished 2nd last week for SG: Approach. Crocker began the year with 8 consecutive missed cuts, manging to right the ship at the Soudal Open when finishing 7th.

That was on a course demanding driving accuracy and clubbing down off the tee, which for a player with plenty of length off the tee is a great combination here. Driving accuracy has often been a problem for Crocker, but gaining accuracy off the tee in 4 of his last 6 (with last week just 4% off field average) and the spike in approach are all promising signs.

Crocker has a raft of top 10 finishes during 2019-2021 before that short 6 month slump. Contained within that are a 4th at Crans-sur-Sierre alongside a 9th here last year, indicating a test which should really suit a golfer returning towards his high ceilings. Crocker is in the second group out Friday morning and he represents great value at an overpriced number.

Sami Valimaki

At 23-years-old, we still are learning exactly what true ceiling for Valimaki’s game looks like. What we do know is he won at just 20-years-old on the DP World Tour, and holds an additional 4 professional wins at lower levels to suggest further success at this level is a very real possibility.

That 2020 season was his first on tour, and contained multiple tops 10s including at the season ending DP World Tour Championship to go alongside his inaugural victory. A 2nd and 6th at the parkland course at Celtic Manor, as well as 18th on the Catalunya Championship where accuracy was also at a premium, all indicate this track should fit his eye well.

Valimaki is starting to return to his best ball-striking, gaining for driving accuracy in 4/6 and sitting 28th in the field for SG: Approach in the last 3 months. A spike in performance when finishing 4th last week, when gaining in all metrics on the field but particularly finding his putter, is enough to include him here at a massive price.

Ewen Ferguson

Finally, I will round out the week with another young talent and our 2nd Scotsman. The 25-year-old secured victory at a very windy Qatar Masters, which possesses some parallels to leaderboards seen here, and spiked on approach last week when sitting 7th for SG: Approach.

Over the last 3 months, Ferguson sits 16th for SG Approach and 23rd for SG OTT in this field indicating his ball-striking is very competitive of late. 11/12 of his most recent events have seen him gain on the field for driving accuracy whilst sitting at field for driving distance, a combination that should see him in contention here. Being in the 2nd group out on Friday AM is perfect, although the wind in the Qatar victory suggest the poor weather over the weekend should be of a benefit.

The Irish form also has been very consistent. In his first year on tour, Ferguson had his best finish that season in Ireland when finishing 14th. That was at this event, hosted at the similar Galgorm Castle course where he also holds a 7th on the Challenge Tour, and he holds an additional 38th at another Irish course on the Challenge Tour.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Travelers Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast

I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I thought Scott Holdridge said it eloquently tonight on the PGA DraftCast show. I am paraphrasing, but “everyone is worried about numbers and stats, but at some point, you have to worry more about win equity.” There is nobody in the world in better form than the American, and we know he can roll that form over from start to start after his utter domination of the tour in 2022.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) – Patrick Cantlay is the top-ranked player on my model for upside, and he carries an average weight in the statistical category that places him as high as anyone I have seen this year. I didn’t have him lower than eighth in the seven categories I ran, and he was either first, second or third seven of those times. We know the course history has been impressive, with four consecutive top-15 finishes, and the form is starting to come around after producing back-to-back top-14 showings at the U.S. Open and Memorial.

Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – I have no issues riding the form. Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – Schauffele will be the top leverage play of the group, although everyone is rather close to one another.

$9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) – We are looking at one finish inside the top-15 for Tommy Fleetwood during his single attempt at TPC River Highlands, but I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect a similar outcome again. Fleetwood’s third-place ranking for safety happens to push him up further on my GPP list because of his sub-10 percent mark, and the Englishman grades inside the top 15 for both TPC tracks and Pete Dye layouts.

Harold Varner III ($9,000) – I’ve used this example a handful of times, but Stixpicks noticed a trend in Varner’s game that he produces better on shorter tests where he can club down than the driver-friendly layouts where you can bomb away. I don’t know why that is, but sub-7,000 yards is an ideal yardage total for that theory to get tested once again.

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,600) – More of a cash-game play for me. Sungjae Im ($9,700) – Feels like a quality bounce-back spot.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson ($8,500) – I will keep all three of these players to a quick rundown because you can hear me talk about them in an in-depth fashion on any of my shows, but Simpson ranks second in this field (behind only Patrick Cantlay) when combining strokes gained at short courses, TPC properties and Dye tracks.

Marc Leishman ($8,400) – Seven top-39 finishes out his last nine attempts for Marc Leishman at TPC River Highlands, including a win in 2012.

Jason Day ($8,100) – I am usually the ‘Boy Who Cried DAYYYYYYYYY’ every week, but my model does happen to like him in Connecticut – evident by his top-10 ranking from an overall sense. Unlike the usual fake hype, this one is real.

Other Thoughts: Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley is a play of mine on DraftKings. I also faded Denny McCarthy by taking Brendan Steele over him at -115.

$7,000 Range

Brendan Steele ($7,700) – Steele is going to be popular, but I am leaning towards him being good chalk for a test where he can use his driver as an advantage.

Si Woo Kim ($7,600) – Let’s keep an eye that his ownership stays under 10 percent, but the upside is there for a top-10 finish. Kim is one of the best players in this field when combining Pete Dye tracks and courses under 7,200 yards.

Cameron Davis ($7,500) – Eleventh in my model from an upside perspective, Cameron Davis epitomizes the boom-or-bust nature. If his ownership starts increasing, we might have to look elsewhere.

Sepp Straka ($7,100) – The only argument against this play is that I do believe you can get the same upside versus volatility combination from Charley Hoffman at $6,500.

Additional Thoughts: Here are the players that are currently showing as a value against price + ownership in the $7,000s – Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500) – that would be GPP-only, Mackenzie Hughes ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,100) and Stewart Cink ($7,000).

$6,000 Range

Zach Johnson ($6,800), Kramer Hickok ($6,700), Charley Hoffman ($6,500), Hank Lebioda ($6,500), Tyler Duncan ($6,400)

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

122nd US Open: Golf Betting Tips, Long-Shots, and Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If you haven’t already, head over here to get your full golf deep dive including course analysis and weather forecasts:
https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-course-analysis-and-weather-deep-dive/?ref=31

Suggested Staking

Headliners

Jordan Spieth 1pt E/W $29.00 (bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Jordan Spieth 2pt Top 10 $3.50 (bet365)

Cameron Young 1pt E/W $41.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cameron Young 2pt Top 20 $2.70 (bet365)

Max Homa 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Max Homa 2pt Top 20 $2.75 (TAB)

Daniel Berger 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Daniel Berger 2pt Top 20 $3.00 (bet365)

Aaron Wise 1pt E/W $76.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Aaron Wise 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (bet365)

Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz 0.25pt E/W $151.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Sebastian Munoz 1.5pt Top 20 $5.00 (bet365)

Brian Harman 0.25pt E/W $176.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brian Harman 1.5pt Top 20 $6.00 (bet365)

Ryan Fox 0.25pt E/W $201.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryan Fox 1.5pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

Lucas Herbert 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Lucas Herbert 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Francesco Molinari 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Francesco Molinari 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (bet365)

Player Profiles: Headliners

Jordan Spieth

I have been deliberately fading Jordan Spieth of late given his well-documented putting woes these past 6 months. The fact is we know that Spieth can putt, with multiple years where he has gained substantial strokes putting, and he has been one of the best on tour of late for SG: tee-to-green sitting 4th in that metric for this field over the last 3 months. He even managed a win at Harbour Town despite losing strokes putting, which is basically unheard of on tour.

We have finally seen the putter spark back to life, gaining strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 tournaments, in what was the only piece to the puzzle needed to re-enter the elite conversation. The other metrics mesh perfectly over the last 3 months: 13th SG: OTT, 26th SG: App, and 2nd SG: ATG. On that last stat he has gained strokes around the green in his last 7 appearances and, given the expected weather and small putting surfaces, his ability to get up and down holds extra appeal this week.

Spieth major record speaks for itself, his multiple major wins including the 2015 US Open (with Chambers Bay being somewhat analogous to The Country Club) and the 2017 Open Championship (where he also holds multiple top 10s and has never missed a cut). Alongside that recent win at the RBC Heritage, he also holds an excellent record at Pebble Beach with a win there as well as 2nd and 3rd place finishes in his two most recent appearances. What that is worth remains to be seen but having performed well at other venues with microscopic greens is hardly a negative.

I’m happy to beat the curve somewhat on Spieth, who rates out 7th on an odds board where he ranks better or on par in my models than several of the shorter priced golfers. I have a fair price at 18s in my models, so the 29s ranks as a steal that I am willing to jump on.

Cameron Young

The 51s on open have quickly been snapped up for Cameron Young, but with bet365 offering 8 places this week we are still seeing value at the current mark of 41s.

Perhaps best known for his ability with the driver Young is straight and long off the tee, which is always a recipe for success in US Opens. He is the 7th longest on tour for driving distance and is 2nd for SG: OTT over the last 3 months. That distance comes of benefit in his irons as well, ranking 27th this season in approach proximity for shots over 200 yards.

Where Spieth ranks 2nd in this field for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, Cameron Young sits 1st. Finding a golfer who is so prolific off the tee but also has that level of touch around the greens is beyond rare; Young is the real deal.

Young has already demonstrated this season that his skills are transitory across a wide range of golf courses. A 2nd at the traditional tough Genesis Invitational, 13th at a windy Arnold Palmer Invitational, 3rd at the shorter RBC Heritage, 2nd in the narrow and high scoring Wells Fargo Championship, and 3rd in the most recent major at the PGA Championship played on the long Southern Hills. He will be better for that appearance, when he arguably should have won, and it is only a matter of time before the 25-year-old secures a breakthrough victory.

Max Homa

Another whose distance and accuracy off the tee holds appeal, Homa enters this major on a run of 9 consecutive events gaining strokes with the driver and 11 straight events gaining strokes on approach. Combine that with gaining multiple strokes putting over his last 4 events, and 2 of his 4 PGA Tour victories coming on similar greens, and it is easy to build a case for the winner of two events this season.

Of those victories, the win at the tough Wells Fargo holds the most appeal coming on a narrow and tough track where weather was also a factor, complimented by a victory in 2021 at the tough Genesis Invitational. Rankings over the last 3 months of 19th SG: T2G, 18th SG: OTT, 10th SG: APP, and 22nd SG: PUTT suggest a well-rounded golfer ready to make the step to the next level.

If there is a chink in the armour, it is his around the green game where he sits middle of the pack in this field over the last 3 months. However, having gained strokes around the green in 5 of his last 8 strokeplay events suggests this is passable if complimented by the elite ball-striking we have seen from Homa this year.

Arriving off a 5th at Memorial, in one of the toughest fields of the year, and a best major finish of 13th at the PGA Championship, Homa arrives in excellent form to pursue a career-defining victory.

Daniel Berger

Having suffered a back sprain earlier in the year, reading Berger’s profile requires a longer-term view to gain a true reflection of his ability. When we do, we find a player who over the last 12 months has ranked at 7th for SG: T2G, 5th for SG: APP, and 24th for SG: ATG. Over the last 2 years, he also measures 32nd for SG: OTT (gained on field in last 4 events) and 30th for SG: PUTT (gained 6.8 strokes when 5th last time out at Memorial) provides a complete, well-rounded profile that can compete with the best on his day.

The missed cut at the PGA Championship should be read in the context of his first appearance from 5 weeks off, where he still managed to gain strokes off-the-tee, and followed most recently by top performances in high class fields suggesting the back should no longer be of any concern. Some of Berger’s best major performances have come of late, with a 7th in the 2021 US Open and 8th in the 2021 Open Championship bettered only by a 6th at the 2018 US Open (where Shinnecock Hills is again at least somewhat analogous to here). A victory at Pebble Beach in 2021 followed a 5th place finish there in 2020, and recent form at Harbour Town of 3-13-21 suggesting these smaller targets seem to suit the eye.

Aaron Wise

At the Memorial Tournament, I went back and forth between Wise and Kirk for my final tip. Kirk received favouritism, and Wise duly popped up for a 2nd place finish where he gained a massive 8.48 strokes on approach to the field.

Wise sits 6th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months, 16th for SG:T2G, has gained strokes off-the-tee in 10 out of 11 tournaments (losing just 0.40 strokes at the Mexico Open), gained strokes ATG in 6 of 9 recent appearances, and has gained 4.84 and 5.24 strokes putting in his last two outings.

Despite not holding a glittering major record, Wise has made his last 6 major cuts with results of 17-41-35-41-17-23. These all came at a time where we were not seeing the same metric profile we find here, as the 25-year-old enters this tournament in the best form of his short career.

For 76s, we are getting a lot of value for a player who should be priced at 60s based on my models.

Player Profiles: Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz

Gained stokes both OTT and APP in 10/12 of his most recent tournaments, stroked putting in 6/7 tournaments and has been at or above field average for SG: ATG in his last 10 appearances.

Sat 2nd when entering the final round of The Players Championship before fading Sunday, a challenging tournament played in windy conditions and demanding elite ball striking. 36th entering final round at PGA Championship before following a similar pattern, the more he gives himself opportunities in these big events the better.

A surprise top 20 is certainly on the cards, and at 150s for the wins should be at shorter odds for the 54th best player in the world according to OWGR.

Ryan Fox

One of two golfers where I’ve foregone the preferred Thursday AM/Friday PM wave. Fox ranks out 4th in this field over the last 3 months for weighted SG: APP. On the DP World Tour this season, he is 4th SG: APP, 4th SG: T2G, and 10th for putts per GIR.

Recent form of W-15-9-8-2-54-2 and, although majority of results were at the lower level of the DP World Tour, the 54th at the recent PGA Championship was where he sat 17th when entering the final round. Best major performances have come at The Open Championship, with 4/5 made cuts and a 16th in 2019.

Well known for his prolific distance off the tee we have seen him play well this year at a variety of courses, including the Soudal Open which was a tight and narrow test. Fox likes to club down and hit a 2 iron off the tee, as he did there, and it should also be noted that his 9th at the Catalunya Championship was unfortunately hampered by that same club suffering a fracture to the shaft limiting his options off the tee. That ability to club down off the tee for accuracy, as well as confidence with his long irons generally, all should be of benefit at this links-like test.

Brian Harman

Harman quietly holds excellent US Open form, with recent outings of 2-36-38-19 all coming at longer tests than he finds this week.

Highly accurate off the tee, Harman is 18th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months and has hit a good run of putting lately ranking 29th for SG: PUTT over the last 3 months.

Lucas Herbert

My other golfer on the other side of the weather draw, I always play Herbert in questionable and windy conditions.

All three of his victories have come in windy conditions, with a PGA Tour win at the October 2021 Bermuda Championship as well as high profile DP World Tour wins at the 2021 Irish Open and the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic.

Herbert possesses an excellent short-game which should hold him in a test that will demand scrambling from even the best ball strikers. Herbert ranks our 6th for SG: PUTT and 25th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, and these metrics follow on a longer 12 months forecast with rankings of 4th and 39th respectively.

The Australian was 31st at his last US Open appearance in 2020 and arrives here a better player. Coming off his best major finish of 13th at the recent PGA Championship, when we were on at 300/1. Hebert was the 2nd lowest round of the afternoon players at that tournament, one stroke behind Justin Thomas, in a big weather draw. He entered the final round in 10th, was just one shot off the lead midway through the final round before eventually finishing in 13th. Cashed some overpriced Top 30 tickets for us that week at $9.50 and another top finish is certainly possible for the young Australian.

Francesco Molinari

Although perhaps regarded as past his prime, Molinari is another who holds a quietly impressive US Open record with most recent finishes of 25-16-13. Complimented by a 2018 Open Championship major victory and followed by 11th in 2019, all suggest a golfer who can still mix with the best at the top of the leader boards in these tougher tests.

Gained strokes on approach in 5 of 7 most recent tournaments, 27th in this field for SG: ATG and gained on the field ATG in 6 of his last 9 appearances. Recent finishes of 17th, 55th at a PGA Championship which was far too long a course for him, and a respectable 26th at the strong field seen at The Memorial Tournament. Could surprise at massive odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Geoff Fienberg joined this week’s PGA DraftCast, and it was a rowdy show for Stixpicks and myself on the Bettor Golf Podcast. I’d highly recommend giving both a listen.

I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week. We will return back to a more standard article a week from now.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) – Scottie Scheffler will be your leverage play in the $10,000+ range with the best combination of upside and unique construction.

Justin Thomas ($10,900) – It is hard to ignore Justin Thomas as the top player in my model. The ownership is solid for the two-time PGA Championship winner, and the upside goes without question.

Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – I like Rory’s “fit” for Brookline, but I do want to point out that we haven’t ever seen him win an event at less than 12-under par.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – Schauffele’s five-straight top-seven finishes at the U.S. Open will be challenging to ignore.

Dustin Johnson ($9,400) – If you want to separate a build away from the chalk, Johnson accomplishes that task easily at two percent. There will be volatility, but the upside is always present at a U.S. Open.

Will Zalatoris ($9,300) – Fairways and made putts. That is the recipe for Zalatoris if he wants to win his first PGA Tour title.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) – Cantlay has a higher missed cut expectation in my model than anyone we have talked about other than Dustin Johnson, but he also has the highest ceiling of anyone not named McIlroy, Scheffler or Thomas.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) – Matsuyama’s two wins in his last 10 completed tournaments is an impressive total for a golfer trending towards being sub-10 percent.

Other Targets: I will find myself lower on Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth than consensus.

$8,000 Range

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) – Fitzpatrick is a cash-game staple that does have playability elsewhere.

Sam Burns ($8,300) – Probably the most win equity on the board sub-$9,000. Burns is a GPP darling because of his reasonable ownership total and upside.

Tony Finau ($8,200) – I selected Tony Finau first overall during the Draftcast, and he is the second-best value on the board for me at $8,200.

Other Thoughts: Niemann, Berger and Homa will be included in my core.

$7,000 Range

Corey Conners ($7,900) – The lack of U.S. Open success is alarming, but the upside is there as a sub-10 percent option in GPPs.

Aaron Wise ($7,800) – My favorite target on the board. You can tune into Bettor Golf to hear why Wise is going to be a staple of everything I do this week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) – The recent metrics turn the Englishman into a value in all markets.

Talor Gooch ($7,500) – If short game matters, let’s not overlook Gooch’s first-place ranking in my model for strokes gained around the green.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,400) – Munoz is trending in the right direction statistically and has the current form that you would hope to see on a cheaper option.

Harold Varner III ($7,300) – Don’t let the perceived lack of win equity fool you. Varner is a golfer with the potential to massively exceed his price tag.

Additional Thoughts: Mito and Sungjae are two of the top five mispriced players on the slate. Patrick Rodgers, Si Woo Kim, Luke List and Brian Harman will make the core.

$6,000 Range

I’d mostly avoid this section if I can, but Kurt Kitayama and Adri Arnaus would be the two golfers I will randomly squeeze into builds.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The US Open: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

We’re already in the midst of another major as a full field descends upon Brookline Massachusetts for the U.S. Open. This major has an additional, if not ominous twist, as many LIV Tour players will be teeing it up among their ‘former’ PGA Tour colleagues. This will be a very tough test with a necessity to be good in all facets, but for me, I’m putting an extra emphasis on OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy) and ARG. We will get to the full model breakdown from @TeeOffSports on the PGA Draftcast on Tuesday night at 8:00, which will also feature special guest Geoff Fienberg! Make sure you tune in for all the DFS and outright plays. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Likely to be unpopular due to his perceived lack of ARG game and the fact that you can pay up or down for more attractive options. Feels like a good time for Rahm to pounce. As for ARG he’s historically been great in that department and it’s picked up over the last couple months for him. I’ll note that I don’t have an issue rostering Rory or Scottie up here. I don’t think either will be prohibitively popular.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He’s in great form, keeps it in the fairway and has been great ARG and on APP. He’s also not intimidated by US Open setups as indicated by his 7th place or better finishes over the last 5 US Opens. Xander is great in cash games but may be pivot material if the ownership gets too high.

Hideki Matsuyama (9100) – Revenge narrative in play after the odd DQ at The Memorial. Deki rates out well in almost all relevant categories and may see some lower ownership as he is Lowry and Zalatoris adjacent.

Shane Lowry (9000) – Certainly a great value but be cautious of his pedestrian US Open track record (granted, this is a different course but it’s still noteworthy). Lowry has been playing at an elite level all year and I don’t suspect that will change at The US Open, but if ownership is high I’ll pivot up to Deki or DJ or down to some of the great value in the 8k range.

Cameron Young (8800) – It’s really difficult to make a compelling argument against some of these young guns. Fact is, Young is great OTT, great ARG and good on APP. If he’s popular (and he likely will be) it’s a pretty easy pivot, but it’s worth noting him in case ownership is flat between the 9k and mid 8k range where there are a lot of popular options.

Billy Horschel (8600) – The 8k range is fruitful, but as usual, Billy probably will be on the outside looking in as far as popularity. His APP play isn’t pristine, but he’s been great ARG and he will keep in the fairway OTT. A nice pivot off some definite chalk in this area.

Daniel Berger (8400) – He was my favorite guy at The Memorial and he paid it off with a T5. He checks every box and has recently shown he can spike with the PUTT. He’s Top 20 ARG and Top 10 in fairways gained and APP. He also likely will have significantly less ownership than Matt Fitzpatrick (I think Fitz is fine for cash).

Mito Pereira (7800) – Another young gun that doesn’t seem to be phased by the moment. Over the last 36 rounds he’s 7th OTT, 10th APP, 31st ARG and 9th Fairways Gained. Nice recipe for outplaying his price tag. Another guy that will be popular so make sure you choose your chalk wisely and don’t be afraid to pivot in GPPs.

Sungjae Im (7600) – Another cash game lock who I may also pepper into some GPPs. He’s going to be very popular. He’s in good form and has the OTT, accuracy and ARG game to compete on Sunday.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – It will be interesting to see how much ownership Louis gets considering he hasn’t played much and he’s now LIV committed. If ownership is down I’m happy to pivot onto him (and perhaps off Sungjae in GPPs). He’ll keep in the fairway and the short game is elite.

Webb Simpson (7400) – Webb has been starting to hit the ball well again which is pretty good evidence he’s shaken off all his injuries and rust. His best finish this calendar year is the recent 20th at the PGA Championship and at 7400 I’d be just fine with that result.

Davis Riley (7300) – Another popular option better suited for cash games. It’s impossible to ignore what this guy has done over his last six tournaments (4th, 5th, 9th, 13th, 4th, 13th). The best part is he’s been doing it the ‘right way’ as he’s picking up plenty of strokes with the BS and the short game. I’d consider Sergio Garcia or Justin Rose in this range as a GPP pivot.

Si Woo Kim (7000) – His big issue is the PUTT but that’s not a big point of emphasis for me at Brookline. Si Woo will hit fairways and can navigate ARG. If he gets hot on APP he can be a factor at The US Open.

Brian Harman (7000) – I’m not a Harman guy, but at this price he’s worth considering. He’s excellent ARG and will keep in the fairway. I’ll take my chances with his lack of distance if I need to dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Bettor Golf Podcast Presents: PGA DFS & Betting for the RBC Canadien Open

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

With all the talk this week about the LIV Golf tour, many people have forgotten that there’s a big tournament being held up north. This week’s RBC Canadien Open has some big names and a big purse. Spencer and guest host @theModelManiac break it down for your daily fantasy golf lineups and sports betting needs. Your first step in setting lineups for this week’s tournament should include the Bettor Golf Podcast as the team walks through everything related to betting for the tournament to setting your DFS lineups. The guys will provide first-round leader, outright winners, head-to-head matchups, top 10, top 20, and top 40 bets. The knowledge dropped by Spencer will go a long way to helping you refine your process and become a Sharper bettor and more profitable daily fantasy golf player. Lock in with them and start climbing the leaderboards at DraftKings and FanDuel for the PGA Championship.

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

After you’ve listened to the Bettor Golf Podcast for the PGA Championship, make sure to take full advantage of all the tools we have to offer, ranging from articles to projection models, live streams, and our lineup optimizer. Check out the links below and if you want to try out our optimizer for a free week use promo code “RADIO” at checkout.

Articles
Projection Model
Optimizer

Sports-wise, this is one of the best times of the year. Baseball season has started and teams are getting their bearings. NBA? We’re in the middle of the finals! NHL? The Avalanch are just waiting to find out who they’ll play for Lord Stanley’s Cup.. But most importantly, the PGA Tour is in full swing, and sites like DK and FD are offering bigger and bigger tournaments.

All of your DFS and Betting Golf needs should start with our Bettor Golf Podcast!

After you’re done listening to the podcast for the PGA Championship, make sure to hop on into our Discord chat.

Discord Expert Chat

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Bettor Golf Podcast Presents: PGA DFS & Betting for the RBC Canadien Open

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Take a listen to the Bettor Golf Podcast podcast by clicking here.

Articles
Projection Model
Optimizer

All of your DFS and Betting Golf needs should start with our Bettor Golf Podcast!

After you’re done listening to the podcast for the PGA Championship, make sure to hop on into our Discord chat.

Discord Expert Chat

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

golf dfs

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I don’t think you can go wrong with Scheffler, Rahm or Thomas, although Thomas does have the most volatility and highest ownership from the trio. For that reason, Rahm and Scheffler are my preferred targets.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Sam Burns ($9,200), Cam Smith ($9,100) are both in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: I will have Joaquin Niemann ($8,600) and Corey Conners ($8,300) in the player pool, but I am out on most other targets in this territory when talking about GPP builds.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Keith Mitchell ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500), Aaron Rai ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,400), Cameron Tringale ($7,200), Harris English ($7,100), Si Woo Kim ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Course Analysis

Weather

Related Course Form

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Player Profiles

Tommy Fleetwood

Tyrrell Hatton

Aaron Rai

Lucas Herbert

Gary Woodland

Course Analysis

Weather

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Player Profiles

Richie Ramsay

Guido Migliozzi

Fabrizio Zanotti

Sean Crocker

Sami Valimaki

Ewen Ferguson

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – I have no issues riding the form. Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – Schauffele will be the top leverage play of the group, although everyone is rather close to one another.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,600) – More of a cash-game play for me. Sungjae Im ($9,700) – Feels like a quality bounce-back spot.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley is a play of mine on DraftKings. I also faded Denny McCarthy by taking Brendan Steele over him at -115.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Here are the players that are currently showing as a value against price + ownership in the $7,000s – Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500) – that would be GPP-only, Mackenzie Hughes ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,100) and Stewart Cink ($7,000).

$6,000 Range

Suggested Staking

Headliners

Long-Shots

Player Profiles: Headliners

Jordan Spieth

Cameron Young

Max Homa

Daniel Berger

Aaron Wise

Player Profiles: Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz

Ryan Fox

Brian Harman

Lucas Herbert

Francesco Molinari

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – I like Rory’s “fit” for Brookline, but I do want to point out that we haven’t ever seen him win an event at less than 12-under par.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: I will find myself lower on Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth than consensus.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Niemann, Berger and Homa will be included in my core.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Mito and Sungjae are two of the top five mispriced players on the slate. Patrick Rodgers, Si Woo Kim, Luke List and Brian Harman will make the core.

$6,000 Range

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.