The Memorial brings back great memories for Joel. The crew talks about that, give out their DFS and betting plays on The Memorial DFS Breakdown!
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Nick- @StixPicks
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some PGA DFS basics. I only play on DraftKings (DK) so those are the salaries I refer to. My thoughts on the players should be good across the industry though. Strategy in DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game. This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments. Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. This article is intended to determine which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. For more on DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.
Muirfield Village is an aesthetically pleasing Jack Nicklaus designed golf course, just outside of Columbus, Ohio. The annual tournament got it’s name when it was completed, and dedicated on Memorial Day, 1974. Boasting a purse exceeding 9 million dollars, it sets up as the perfect test for the upcoming U.S. Open. Muirfield Village was re-designed after last year, to challenge the greatest all around golf games in the world. Setting up at 7,543 yards, this par 72 course is playing around 100 yards longer than last year. It seems they narrowed the landing zones of the fairways. They also added some sand, and 155 trees. Throw in the water, green-side bunkers, long Kentucky Blue-Grass rough, and this course will offer no leniency when penalizing strokes for errant shots. The oft elevated, newly contoured, and 75.8 rated Bentgrass greens will demand precision.
John Rahm is your defending champion, and Colin Morikawa won the Workday (played on the same, yet somewhat easier, course) the week prior to The Memorial in 2020. There is plenty of course history here, and on similar Jack Nicklaus designed courses. Let’s take a look at some key metrics that will help get our golfers on the leader board Sunday.
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) is important at every course, but it is extremely important here. Greens in regulation (GIR) is only 62% here in contrast to the tour average 66%, and the greens are small. This tells me that if a golfer can hit his approach shot, he’ll be close to the pin more often than not.
Par 4: 450-500. There are a lot of lengthy par 4s here. Having golfers that are good at them should help you climb the leader boards.
SG: Around The Green (ARG). This course will play long and players will miss the green (GIR mentioned above in the approach paragraph). Proximity to the hole out of green side bunkers is further here than any other course on tour. (It may be wise to at least look at sand saves. There’s a difference in ARG from the rough, or sand). Getting up and down in two will be a great tool to have in your bag.
Proximity 175-200. This will be the approach shot on almost all of the par 4’s and par 5’s.
SG: Putting (P). Golfers that are good on Bentgrass will be a big advantage. These small greens will require 2 putts or less on every hole.
SG: OTT. While not as important as most courses, your golfer will still need to avoid the lengthy rough. Also, having both SG:OTT, and SG:APP covers our ball striking (SG:BS) stat, yet keeps it separate so we can see the differences.
I want to start off by mentioning a trend I’ve been seeing. Balanced builds have recently been leading the way as far as DFS lineups are concerned. I also concur with a popular industry stance that there is no clear cut #1 player in the world. The PGA “studs” are all showing some flaws in their respective games right now. That being said, I will be fading the entire upper tier of salaries at this tournament, for the most part. I realize that everyone reading this article may not be entering cash games or small field GPP’s (only), so I’ll give my opinion on top tier rankings for those of you that are interested. Specifically referring to the six players $10K and up, this is how I’d break it down.
1. Rahm
2. Spieth
3. Morikawa
1. DeChambeau
2. Thomas
3. McIlroy
Now that we’ve got some house keeping done, let’s take a look at some of my core PGA DFS plays this week.
Viktor Hovland: $9900: Ranks in the top of the field in almost every key metric you can think of, INCLUDING SG:ARG, which is commonly thought of as his weakness. He’s been within a stroke of gaining in ARG in 22 of his last 25 tournaments.
Hideki Matsuyama: $9400: The Masters Champion is in great form, he’s great on Jack’s tracks, consistently under owned, SG:APP is his weapon, and he hasn’t lost over a stroke with the flat stick in 8 of his last 10.
Tony Finau: $9200: Another guy that’s great on Jack’s tracks, whose form seems to have made the turn for the better. Model has him 7th ARG, and 20th APP.
Scott Scheffler: $9000: Pure contrarian play. No one is on him after missing the cut last week, but he was T8 at the PGA Championship and DID shoot a 70 on Thursday last week. One of the best Jack’s tracks golfers in the field. I’m not jumping ship after one bad round, and neither should you.
Charlie Hoffman: $8300: History here has him priced too low. Just keep playing him in PGA DFS until his game tells you otherwise.
Keegan Bradley: $8000: One of the best ball strikers in the field, and his flat stick is finally coming around. Another great Jack’s tracks guy.
Emiliano Grillo: $7700: Flat stick and ARG are question marks, but his iron game, recent form, and history on Jack’s tracks are enough to make my list.
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
Matt Fitzpatrick
Louis Oosthuizen
Shane Lowry
Gary Woodland
Kevin Streelman
Brendon Todd
Taylor Gooch
Aaron Wise
Alex Noren
Adam Hadwin
Kyle Stanley
It’s a good idea to read all the writers PGA DFS articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your lineups.
Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your PGA DFS lineups according to the contests you’re playing.
Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some keys to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.
The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges. This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT. As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal. More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.
Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value. I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier. He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes. I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.
Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like. He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity). Overall he’s 6th OTT and 12th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.
Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12th in my 24 Round model (9th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been. He finished 23rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low. I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.
Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6th in my model this week. His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week. I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.
Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament. No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close. He’s 2nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG. The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great.
Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck. He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20th OTT and 15th APP. He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG. Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.
Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit. I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs. An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot. He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.
Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else. He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway. He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.
Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall. However he’s 13th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.
Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21st). He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG. If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.
Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament. Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.
Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice. He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8th place finish last week. Also has a great track record here. Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your Memorial Tournament lineups.
After wrapping up the second major of the year, the PGA Tour now gets ready for Charles Schwab Challenge. Sia, Joel and Nick give their DFS plays and betting picks on the Charles Schwab DFS Breakdown!
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Nick- @StixPicks
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
This week the PGA Tour is back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This Par 70 is 7200 yards which is relatively short, bringing shorter hitters very much in play. I’ll be focusing on APP from all ranges, but particularly 175 and below, and I will also be focusing on driving accuracy. Accurate drives should set up nicely for solid ball strikers who can hit the relatively small greens, thereby avoiding the need to lean on ARG game. You’ll see that theme throughout my Charles Schwab Challenge picks below. Join us tonight for the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream for more on all these picks and many more. And make sure you get into Discord on Wednesday for our final adjustments, ownership pivots and weather edges.
Collin Morikawa (10500) – After some time off Collin kicked it right back in gear with a Top 10 at the PGA Championship. Morikawa is number 1 on APP over the last 24 rounds which is no surprise and he nearly won this thing last year with a 2nd place finish. I’ll note that I also like Jordan Spieth and I have no issue with wanting to pay up for him. If you’re looking for ownership leverage in this range, Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger are your guys.
Abraham Ancer (9700) – An elite ball striker who has made 8 cuts in a row while never finishing worse than 30th in that stretch. Add to that three Top 10s in his last three tournaments and a 14th place finish last time on this course. Number 1 in my model. He will be garner a lot of ownership so know that going in.
Corey Conners (9400) – Another elite ball striker with a good track record on this course and good recent history. His biggest downfall is ARG which shouldn’t be too big of a factor for an elite ball striker like Conners. Another guy who is likely to have a lot of ownership. If you’re looking for a low owned pivot in a big GPP, Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland should be under 10%.
Charley Hoffman (8700) – You may sense a theme with the good ball strikers this week, and frankly, I think many others will gravitate to guys like Hoffman because of the value. Hoffman has been a Top 20 machine (Top 20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 tournaments) and in this field I think he can deliver much more.
Cameron Tringale (8100) – The strokes gained metrics took a considerable hit after a horrific Day 2 at the PGA Championship and I’m hopeful DFS’ers are weary of that and stay away from Tringale. As for me, I think he’s a good course fit and I expect him to rebound nicely this week. The game has been up and down lately so he’s more of a GPP play as opposed to cash.
Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Grillo is always a great ball striker who struggles with the short game, particularly the putter. He’s best suited for shorter courses like this one where he doesn’t need to bomb it off the tee. The APP game is in check as he was one of the best last week (gaining over 7 strokes on the field). He actually gained a bit with the putter as well last week which is a great sign.
Chris Kirk (7600) – Kirk is not dominant in any one particular area, but he has a great all-around game, particularly when it comes to shorter courses. There is definitely value here but if initial ownership projections are accurate, then I’m fine with pivoting off of him (I’m willing to eat some chalk, but Kirk will be one of my first pivots if he is highly owned. Stay tuned for @SicilyKid ownership projection article on Wednesday evening).
Russell Knox (7300) – Russ has been pretty good as of late with three made cuts in a row. His APP game has really been clicking and excels in the shorter APP proximities, which is what he will see for the most part this week. The putting has been bad but he’s a veteran and I expect him to find his range. His last three here have been MC, 8th and 20th. He’ll be lower owned making him a very solid GPP play.
Matthew NeSmith (7300) – He’ll keep it in the fairway and will strike it well on APP. As you might expect, the short game has some issues, but I’m happy to take my chances with NeSmith here. He played The Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time in 2020 and finished 49th. Another lower owned guy that will allow you to pick up some chalk in other spots.
Tom Hoge (6800) – A nice course fit as Hoge can keep it in the fairway and is great on APP (last 24 rounds he’s Top 10 in the field). The big issue with Hoge is ARG and PUTT and it’ll need to be a leap of faith in terms of getting your lineup to the finish line, but this is a great course for Hoge so now is the time to consider rostering him.
Vincent Whaley (6200) – What if I told you that there is a guy priced at 6200 who has made 9 consecutive cuts (which rates as tied for the 4th longest cut streak on the PGA Tour). What if that’s all that I told you, would you roster him? I would.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-8. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your Charles Schwab lineups.
It’s the second major of the year! The PGA Championship is here and Sia, Joel and Nick give out their DFS plays and betting picks on the PGA Championship DFS Breakdown
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Nick- @StixPicks
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
The year’s second major is upon us with the PGA Championship. This course is a 7876 Par 72 which is extremely long. Add to that the wind could be a big factor all week and you’re looking at tough scoring conditions. I’ll be focused on players with good long and short games and I will be keying in on OTT, APP (including from longer proximities, i.e. 175-200+) and ARG. More on course dynamics and SG metrics on our PGA Livestream and Podcast tomorrow at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the PGA Championship picks.
Rory Mcilroy (11500) – Tweaked his game a bit with the help of coach Steve Cowen and now looks to be in really good shape for a major takedown (pun obviously intended). Even when Rory was allegedly playing poorly, he was pretty great OTT (rates out 6th over the last 50 rounds and is longest in driving distance in the field over last 24 rounds) and the rest of his game appears to be catching up.
Xander Schauffele (9600) – He checks all the boxes with a great all around game and has an excellent track record in majors. Xander isn’t as elite in any one metric relative to some of the other guys in this range, but he’s good at everything, and that’s what I’m looking for this week.
Viktor Hovland (9300) – Because of his anticipated popularity, I may end up liking Hovland more as a cash play rather than a tournament play, but we will need to wait and see projected ownership. Hovland has had some bouts of bad play lately but overall he checks all the boxes other than some potential issues with ARG.
Daniel Berger (8700) – I’ve never really been on team Berger, but I can’t deny how good he has been in terms of managing great finishes. He’s been hovering around the Top 20 with finishes and with OTT and T2G metrics. He doesn’t hit the ball a long way like I’d prefer this week, but I’m willing to overlook that. It’s not sexy, but it’s solid at this price.
Abraham Ancer (7900) – Ancer is another elite ball striker who has been piling up great finishes. He’s Top 20 OTT over the last 50 rounds and rates out 2nd over the last 12 rounds. The T2G game checks out too as he is Top 30 over last 50 rounds and 7th over the last 12 rounds.
Paul Casey (7700) – Not many flaws in the game for Paul Casey. He doesn’t do anything particularly elite but he’s above average in pretty much everything. He is as balanced as they come and I consider him a ‘safer’ play among the 7k range for the PGA Championship.
Keegan Bradley (7300) – We get into some scary territory down in this range, but I’m happy to lean on Keegan as the ball striking checks out. He has been a little shaky over the last 12 rounds OTT but over the last 50 rounds (and over his career as a whole) he’s been great OTT and APP. The ARG game is good as well and it’ll just come down to the putter.
Charley Hoffman (7300) – He has been very good T2G and presents as a great value at this price. Hits it long enough off the tee to be alright with the length of this course (305 yards last 24 rounds. My preference is for the driving distance to be 300+ this week).
Si Woo Kim (7200) – A Pete Dye specialist who checks most of the boxes as he’s been great T2G (15th over last 50 rounds and 18th over last 12) and his ARG game is very good. This feels like great value.
Jason Kokrak (7100) – I almost wrote up Matt Jones at this exact price, and I do like MJ, but I like Kokrak a bit better. The ball striking has been great, but the ARG game can give him some issues. Either way, I’ll take the upside with the ball striking and the good recent finishing positions.
Stewart Cink (6900) – The length of this course shouldn’t bother Cink (Top 10 OTT last 24 rounds) and I think he’ll be able to grind out a made cut with how well he’s been playing lately. Beware of an ARG game that is less than stellar.
Charl Schwartzel (6800) – I was all over him last week and it really paid off. He’s been striking the ball very well and has the short game to check all the boxes. Great value here.
Secret Weapon (under 7k/under 5% owned) – Current record is 35-7. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your PGA Championship lineups.
The PGA Tour makes one more stop before it’s next major! Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck have a full breakdown of The AT&T Byron Nelson with DFS plays and betting picks!
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
The PGA Tour has one last stop before its next major and that stop is in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The 152 player field should be able to attack this golf course as there doesn’t appear to be much by way of trouble and/or hazards. This is the first time the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at Craig Ranch (7500 yard Par 72), and therefore, you can ignore course history. You’ll want to focus on OTT and APP and PUTT. I rank APP just above OTT in this one with PUTT being a distant third place. More on the SG metrics and specific proximities on the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.
Jordan Spieth (10700) – He’s one of many guys I like that is from the area and he’s the best player T2G in this field. I like Bryson and Rahm in this range as well, but if I can only pick one golfer, it’s going to be Jordan.
Will Zalatoris (9700) – Coming off a missed cut but that’s no reason to pivot. Zalatoris grades out 1st on APP last 36 rounds and while his OTT game has been somewhat average, his overall ball striking is certainly elite. Add to that he’s playing at home and is very familiar with this course.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (9500) – An elite player that remains under the radar. He’s 9th OTT last 36 rounds but 1st OTT last 12 rounds. He grades out as the number one player in the 450-500 yard range. His long irons sometimes give him issues so that could spell trouble on APP, but I expect the best putter in this field to make up for it on the greens.
Ryan Palmer (9100) – Palmer has been hot this year but has cooled off a bit as of late. He lives 40 minutes north of this course and has played it at least “a couple dozen times” and holds the course record here (61). He’s 11th in my model and I think he has the upside to compete here late Sunday afternoon.
Luke List (8400) – He’s 11th in the field T2G over last 12 rounds and 6th OTT in the last 36 rounds. He gained across all categories last week at the Wells Fargo. His putter can really get him in trouble and therefore I like him better as a GPP play as opposed to cash.
Charl Schwartzl (8100) – He’s been very good for a few tournaments in a row now. He was 3rd in the field T2G last week and he’s within the Top 10 in this field T2G over the last 12 rounds. This feels like a good value play in the low 8k range.
Russell Knox (7700) – He was bad earlier this year but over the last 12 rounds he’s started to find his old form and that has resulted in being Top 15 T2G over the last 12 rounds. He was 2nd in the field T2G at Wells Fargo, but lost a good amount PUTT.
Doug Ghim (7500) – This tournament could turn into a putting contest and that’s not exactly where Ghim would want to be, but his T2G game is elite and in a GPP he will give you great value if he’s even decent with the putter.
Jhonnatan Vegas (7200) – number 1 in the field OTT at Wells Fargo (gained over 7 strokes total OTT). He lost most of his strokes ARG which shouldn’t hurt him too badly at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s 4th OTT last 36 rounds.
Roger Sloan (6900) – The 6k range is tough this week and there aren’t a lot of great options. Sloan is someone I’m willing to the roll the dice with because he’s been solid with the ball striking lately. He’s typically giving up a lot of strokes ARG but if his APP is on point (which it usually is), he shouldn’t need to worry too much about that. He’ll need to find the putter.
Chris Baker (6000) – Baker doesn’t have a lot of rounds under his belt, but his ball striking has been good enough in limited work for me to include him in this article. He’s obviously a GPP dart at this minimum price, but if you are trying to stack elite players you may be able to find some value in the abyss.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-7.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.
The PGA Tour makes its way to North Carolina for the Wells Frago Championship! Sia, Joel and Nick have a full breakdown of the event on the Wells Fargo Championship DFS Breakdown!
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
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