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This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer we get to the postseason.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.30 Runs

Daniel Norris takes the mound in Cleveland this evening. He carries a 4.96 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 4.71 ERA into tonight’s matchup. We get a nice little recipe here with his reverse splits. Left handed batters are slashing to a .367 wOBA, .540 SLG, and .343 OBP across 16 innings pitched. He has allowed 13 runs in that short span. His 40% hard contact rate and 40% pull rate combined with his shakiness to lefties can make for some easy liners to right field. Norris racked up eight strikeouts but gave up six earned runs in his last meeting with Cleveland. Cleveland batters are hitting below their season averages this month, slashing to a .309 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 88 WRC+. These numbers aren’t typically what we look for but they’re in the worst part of their slump and this is a good opportunity to bust out of it.

Preferred Stack: Roberto Perez ($2700 FD|$4100 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$3900 DK), Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$5000 DK), and Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$4900 DK).

Colorado Rockies Stack

vs. RHP Derek Rodriguez (SFG):

Dereck Rodriguez was called up from AAA as the 26th man ahead of today’s doubleheader. He carries a 5.27 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 5.46 SIERA across 57 innings pitched into tonight’s game. He has struggled both to righties and lefties, allowing a .338 wOBA, .462 SLG, and 46% hard contact rate. The Rockies batting averages are creeping up again on this home stand and should continue to rise this evening. They are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .193 ISO, and .457 SLG against right handed pitching recently and the studs in this lineup are coming off a rest day.

Preferred Stack:Charlie Blackmon ($4800 FD|$5700 DK), Daniel Murphy ($4100 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Trevor Story ($4600 FD|$5600 DK), and Nolan Arenado ($4700 FD|$5400 DK).

Every stack report in the industry is going to have the Giants and Rockies. Ownership almost always levitates to Coors, especially when you have Dereck Rodriguez (SFG) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (COL) pitching. Going to be a lot of ownership on both sides here ,so I am not writing up the Giants in detail for that purpose, but I’ve included my preferred stack if you decide to go with the masses tonight.

Preferred Stack: Alex Dickerson ($3800 FD|$4800 DK), Stephen Vogt ($2700 FD|$4300 DK), Evan Longoria ($3500 FD|$5300 DK), Pablo Sandoval ($2900 FD|$4900 DK), Brandon Crawford ($3000 FD|$3900 DK), and Austin Slater ($3600 FD|$5000 DK).

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.40 Runs

I imagine ownership here will be higher as well. It’s not very often we get the Dodgers so early in the evening. Zach Eflin carries a 3.78 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. Left handed batters are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .544 SLG, and .333 OBP. He has allowed 22 earned runs and 11 home runs across 43 innings pitched to lefties as well. The only concern I really have with Dodgers batters here is a possible hangover from last night’s game. The Dodgers are slashing .to a 335 wOBA, .209 ISO, and 109 WRC+ vs. right handed pitching over the last month.

Preferred Stack:Max Muncy ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Alex Verdugo ($3100 FD|$4100 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4800 FD|$5100 DK), and Joc Pederson ($2600 FD|$4200 DK).

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

The Red Sox get another cupcake matchup against Thornton. They have faced him twice this season, his first outing in Boston when he allowed only two earned runs and a recent second outing in Toronto in which he allowed seven earned runs. This Red Sox team is hitting very well recently. They are slashing .372 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 129 WRC+. I have the same concern with the Red Sox as with the Dodgers. They played late last night but they do get the benefit at being at home. Trent Thornton has a 4.85 ERA, 4.41 FIP, and 4.75 ERA on the year. He has identical splits, allowing batters to slash to a .332 wOBA, .321 BABIP, and .444 SLG.

Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4100 FD|$5500 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Mookie Betts ($4200 FD|$4800 DK), and Christian Vazquez ($2900 FD|$4700 DK).

Honorable Mention

Houston Astros vs. RHP Griffin Canning (LAA): 4.90 Runs

Preferred Stack: Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$4400 DK), Yordan Alvarez ($4300 FD|$4800 DK), Michael Brantley ($3900 FD|$4000 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3800 FD|$4200 DK).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.25 Runs

Preferred Stack: Freddy Galvis ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), Cavan Biggio ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), Eric Sogard ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3800 FD|$5300 DK).

Pitching

  1. RHP Adam Plutko vs. DET: 4.20 Runs
  2. RHP Lucas Giolito vs. KCR: 4.40 Runs
  3. LHP James Paxton vs. TAM: 4.00 Runs

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This report will provide stacks that I recommend for today’s 11 game main slate. I’ve also included my favorite one-offs and value plays.

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. LHP Gregory Soto (DET): 6.30 Runs

The Red Sox come in with the highest implied run total on the slate today. I do not expect Soto to pitch more than an inning or two but once he comes out he has an awful bullpen behind him. The Red Sox are slashing a league best .382 wOBA, .216 ISO, and .920 OPS over the last two weeks. Greg Soto carries 8.06 ERA, 6.29 FIP, and 5.88 SIERA over a small sample of 22 innings pitched. He is atrocious to righties. They are slashing .415 wOBA, .632 SLG, and .391 OBP against him. The Red Sox have a lot of right handed power early in the lineup and Soto struggles there the most as indicated above. This makes guy’s like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez early on a priority. The bullpen should open things up for Rafael Devers to crack the slate open, although he also hits lefties well.

Preferred Stack: J.D. Martinez ($4000 FD|$4700 DK), Mookie Betts ($4200 FD|$4900 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5000 DK), and Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5600 DK).

Toronto Blue Jays Stack

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 5.95 Runs

Asher Wojciechowski has bounced around multiple farm systems since 2010 and has limited big show experience other than the 62 innings pitched he tossed for the Reds in 2017. Through his career, Wojciechowski carries 6.62 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and 4.25 SIERA. He surrenders 1.81 HR/9 over that same time span and typically gives up over 50% fly ball rate. The Blue Jays offense has hit extremely well against right handed pitching the last few weeks. They are slashing a massive .399 wOBA, .318 ISO, and 152 WRC+ in that time span. I like this lineup a lot more when Randal Grichuk is in it. He is currently projected to start but is nursing a back injury. Boost to Toronto if he plays today.

Preferred Stack: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3800 FD|$5500 DK), Cavan Biggio ($3800 FD|$4700 DK), Freddie Galvis $3400 FD|$4300 DK), Eric Sogard ($3400 FD|$4700 DK) and Justin Smoak ($3000 FD|$4100 DK) are my preferred plays. Danny Jansen ($2900 FD|$3800 DK) is okay for value but I typically won’t waste my utility spot on a catcher. Randal Grichuk ($3200 FD|$3800 DK) if he plays, if not Brandon Drury ($2500 FD|$3300 DK) is a decent value play.

Chicago Cubs Stack

vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 6.00 Runs

I’m going to jump on this Cubs train before it passes me by this weekend. This team has quietly hit very well to right handed pitching over the last two weeks, slashing .354 wOBA, .233 ISO, and .515 SLG. Ivan Nova carries 5.92 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and 5.06 SIERA into today’s matchup. Nova isn’t giving up a ton of fly balls, but he does have a .339 BABIP to compliment his 45% ground ball rate. His splits are awful and close to identical. He holds a .386 wOBA, .512 SLG, and .368 OBP on the season. Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward all sit in the top 45 hitters in the league with the best HR/FB ratio.

Preferred Stack: Jason Heyward ($3500 FD|$4800 DK), Kyle Schwarber ($3900 FD|$4300), Anthony Rizzo ($4300 FD|$4800 DK), Wilson Contreras ($3600 FD|$5300 DK), and Javier Baez ($4100|$5300). I have a ton of interest in Robel Garcia ($2000 FD|$2200 DK). He’s essentially a free square with the fantastic matchup and minimum pricing. Lock him in.

Honorable Mentions

Houston Astros Stack

vs. LHP Jose Saurez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($3600 FD|$3900 DK), Alex Bregman ($4100 FD|$4700 DK), and Yordan Alvarez ($4200 FD|$4700 DK).

Baltimore Orioles Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton(TOR): 4.55 Runs

Preferred Stack: Chance Sisco ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$3900 DK), Renato Nunez ($3300 FD|$4400 DK) Chris Davis ($2500 FD|$3000 DK), and Jonathan Villar ($3600 FD|$4500 DK).

One-Offs and Value Plays

Robel Garcia (CHC) ($2000 FD|$2200 DK), Chris Davis (BAL) ($2500 FD|$3000 DK), Mike Trout (LAA) ($4800 FD|$5800 DK), Matt Olson (OAK) ($3500 FD|$4800 DK), and Ian Desmond (COL) ($3000 FD|$4700 DK).

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Back at it again tonight with a full slate of MLB. Any additions to this list are going to be in slack. Whether that is pre game or live. We had some plays in there yesterday which included some NBA Summer league. That’s where you can find me to discuss anything or just ask if there are any plays looming. Look forward to seeing you in there. Here are some pre game plays to get in on.

MLBCubs -122Phillies -102Astros +117Tigers -103
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A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward that will encompass all the prerequisites and save us all a ridiculous amount of time. For example, a team with a high grade in Offensive Runs Created (ORC) means it has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted rolling averages, trend & split tests. To list all of the pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of the structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate in an instant. I want it to cater to those without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. This type of system requires only the most serious, thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. Remember that profit alone is the name of the game, and efficacy is paramount. I bet, I play DFS and I play fantasy. This table readout serves all three simultaneously, providing you speak the language.

MLBMA: ORC+/PRA+ KEY

  • ORC% – Offensive Runs Created, as a percentage of the league average
  • ORC+ – Offensive Runs Created, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 
  • PRA% – Pitching Runs Allowed, as a percentage of the league average
  • PRA+ – Pitching Runs Allowed, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 

The conditional formatting for the board is set similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant where red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. So regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for the color red and higher numbers on ORC+/PRA+.

You’ll also notice teams have different colors assigned to them. This is based on team wOBA over the last seven days, updated daily. Think of it as being on a heat scale. I always like to keep a team’s last 250 PA in mind before making my decisions. It’s a very helpful tool in avoiding a buzzsaw.

  • Red > .340
  • Orange .325 – .339
  • Yellow .291 – .325
  • Blue < .290

The highest probability hits are highlighted in green, with the specific play detailed within.

The ML Plays:

  • CLE F5ML + TB ML = (+102)
  • MIA +0.5 F5RL = (+105)
  • BOS F5ML = (-160)
  • LAD -1.5 RL = (-125)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 5 (Using LAD ML) = +860

The O/u Plays:

  • CHC/PIT O9 – Since I started, the line shifted up to 9.5. Since we needed ten runs to win this one anyway, I’ll take the current O9.5 (+100)
  • BOS/TOR O9.5 (-115)
  • PHI/ATL O9.5 – This one also moved up since this am. Now at 10. I really hate to concede that extra run; Now we need eleven to cash. The offenses aren’t playing that well to chase here. I’m letting this one go.
  • NYY/NYM O9 (-120)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 3 (+586)

It’s always tricky when it comes to game strategy in betting. In my opinion strategy has to be custom tailored to the individual, their goals and expectations. I move my patterns as well as risk depending on performance that quarter. I tend to scale down into drawdowns. Not everyone likes to be so fluid. Some players only play straight bets; You can use this information however you like, which is why it’s so useful across different formats.

Tonight, I think I may also change that LAD RL to ML & pack it with the previously posted BOS F5ML for (+128)

And if the clouds part just for us, an eight for eight sweep pays +6485 (or $7.71 pays $500 for the beginner). Thanks to the beauty of internet gaming, it’s always worth it for me to take a cheap flier on my night’s work. I see it as an overhead cost for my business. I actually maintain a certain percentage of my venture’s overall risk for low risk/high reward parlays of my algo results. Gambling sports is a strange animal at times, and results can happen in bunches. Already this season I have at least three different occasions where the algo cleared the board that particular day (check @mlbmovingavg on Twitter) and went at least 7 for 7. By playing a small amount every day, I was able to be alive and active in the game long enough to get those big hits.

Let’s get it.

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Hey everyone we are back with a short slate Monday in MLB. There are a couple pre game plays to go on and I’ll post them here. However any additions either live or pre game I’ll be posting in slack. This may not just be for MLB anything I see that looks good I’ll let you guys know. I’m also not going to post specific units anymore. With the addition of live bets and bets posted in slack it’s going to be too difficult to keep up with everything specifically. Let’s just get on games in profitable spots. Anything you need can be addressed in there so I would suggest jumping in and starting some convo.

MLBPirates +116Padres -160
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I wanted to inform you guys that I don’t have that much time to post. That being said I am very excited about the slack addition. SO much can be accomplished in there. We can discuss games, live bets, overall strategy, anything you want. Just jump in there start chatting and I will be jumping in and out all night. I know there are plenty of people that love to get in a lot of action so this is an opportunity to discuss anything you like and we can break it down. I look forward to building a community in there. There is one pre game play I greatly like and I’m going to post it in there to get the ball rolling.

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Depending how you played this afternoon, you either broke ever or may have made a few percentage points depending whether you went after Boston or not. I did play the 4 pack for just a few bucks and a small loss, then profited on the 3 team Round Robin. I find most of the active players I know won’t play 4 team parlays (understandably so) and also don’t want anything to do with a -345 favorite. I’m not necessarily a fan myself, I try and treat all the statistical breakdowns the same. There’s a reason they were expected to win based on strong splits. They lost the F5, and then blew the game. You know how I feel about bullpens, which is a perfect segue to tonights first pick.

The Mets & Phils are both entering strong splits on offense, with my top two pitching regression candidates on the bump, both with two imploding bullpens looming. I usually don’t look for overs in the double digits, but it would be foolish to just ignore the spike in run production this season in the name of conservative play.

Vegas threw me for a loop when I saw the Rangers were dogs tonight. I have them winning outright. However, I’ve been playing .500 ball for the last few days so even though my heart says TEX ML, my brain says the prudent play IF you’re going to parlay with the Mets over is to take the +1.5 Run Line.

Here’s the part where we need to deviate from the group to suit our own strategy & risk management best. I would suggest either playing

  • NYM/PHI O10.5 + TEX RL+1.5 = +178, or
  • NYM/PHI O10.5 (-110) Straight
  • TEX ML (-115) Straight
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