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Sports Betting

MLBMA Wednesday 6.26.19 PM Parlay

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Sports Betting

Depending how you played this afternoon, you either broke ever or may have made a few percentage points depending whether you went after Boston or not. I did play the 4 pack for just a few bucks and a small loss, then profited on the 3 team Round Robin. I find most of the active players I know won’t play 4 team parlays (understandably so) and also don’t want anything to do with a -345 favorite. I’m not necessarily a fan myself, I try and treat all the statistical breakdowns the same. There’s a reason they were expected to win based on strong splits. They lost the F5, and then blew the game. You know how I feel about bullpens, which is a perfect segue to tonights first pick.

The Mets & Phils are both entering strong splits on offense, with my top two pitching regression candidates on the bump, both with two imploding bullpens looming. I usually don’t look for overs in the double digits, but it would be foolish to just ignore the spike in run production this season in the name of conservative play.

Vegas threw me for a loop when I saw the Rangers were dogs tonight. I have them winning outright. However, I’ve been playing .500 ball for the last few days so even though my heart says TEX ML, my brain says the prudent play IF you’re going to parlay with the Mets over is to take the +1.5 Run Line.

Here’s the part where we need to deviate from the group to suit our own strategy & risk management best. I would suggest either playing

  • NYM/PHI O10.5 + TEX RL+1.5 = +178, or
  • NYM/PHI O10.5 (-110) Straight
  • TEX ML (-115) Straight

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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