Tag:

Giannis Antetokounmpo

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, March 22

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome my friends to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a nice 8 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!

If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Welcome to Monday’s 8 Game NBA DFS slate which let’s just go ahead and rename it – The Giannis Slate.

While we may have eight games to choose from, the reality is – having Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as doubtful to play with a sprained knee coming after the slate was created, means we have wild mispricing on the remaining Milwaukee Bucks players.

It is going to lead to some seriously concentrated ownership, but I would argue rightfully so. All of Khris Middleton ($7.6K), Jrue Holiday ($6.8K), Donte DiVincenzo ($6.1K), and Bobby Portis ($4.1K) are far too cheap in this spot with Giannis and his league-high usage rate sidelined.

We have seen the Bucks play without Giannis just once this season – back on January 9th against the Cavaliers. In that game, Portis slid into the starting lineup and dropped 43 DK points while Middleton (46) and Jrue Holiday (38) gave you strong returns on their mid-range pricing.

There is no doubt that the Bucks are good plays tonight – likely optimal plays by any and all metrics. The question for you and anyone playing NBA DFS tonight is how do you play with and off this massive chalk?

Personally – I think you have two ideal options from a GPP perspective – we either fade the chalk entirely or we get the chalk and go all-in on a game stack!

Fade the Chalk

First, you play the all-out fade game with the idea that it is an 8 game slate and we have a ton of great plays in other games. You simply hope the Bucks have good but not great games and your pivots at lower ownership help you set the cash position.

In that game back on January 9th, the Bucks played at a significantly slower pace against the Cavs, just 94 possessions which is significantly off their season-long mark of 105 possessions per game. For context, the 105 mark is top 3 on the season in the entire league while that 94 single-game mark would be lower than any team in the NBA this season.

So if we opt to fade the Bucks chalk in the hope the game plays slow and the high-owned plays see more floor than a ceiling – where do we pivot to for said ceiling?

The reality is – the 9 PM EST games that are all around the Bucks/Pacers have as much injury news we can anchor to and my guess is, it will be focused on far less.

For example – the Celtics will be without Kemba Walker against the fast-paced Grizzlies which means we get point Jayson Tatum ($8.6K) under $9K tonight. Tatum has already shown us the ceiling he has in these kinds of games, going for 50+ DraftKings points in 6 of the 16 games that Kemba has missed – making him a ceiling star we can build around for a bargain price.

If we are looking for a pivot game stack – the Raptors and Rockets rank as two of the bottom 4 defensive teams in the NBA over the last 10 games and we could see additional injury news and value open up here. The Rockets are on the tail end of a B2B which means Victor Oladipo and John Wall are names to watch. I do find it interesting that Oladipo is not on any site right now with projected starters which means this could be the John Wall ($7.1K) show for the Rockets.

I love a good narrative in NBA DFS and it is hard to think this Rockets teams will not somehow rally around their coach Stephen Silas. If you missed the Coach’s post-game yesterday – watch this and tell me you don’t think this team is going to rally around him at some point.

https://twitter.com/AdamSpolane/status/1373736997278396427

Wall has shown 50+ upside with Dipo sidelined and I think that using him and Christian Wood ($8K) tonight IF Oladipo is out, could pay big dividends against a Toronto team that has been dreadful defensively the last 10 games.

Toronto is allowing teams to shoot the ball at nearly 50% in this recent stretch while giving up the 2nd most 3’s per game of any team in the NBA. They are allowing the most FTA per game at nearly 30 per game, giving up the 3rd most rebounds per game (behind the Rockets mind you) and the third most assist per game.

This has not been the Raptors defense we are used to and I think if Dipo sits, the usage would all flow to Wall/Wood who have paths to monster ceiling games.

With the Raptors back at full strength now, they have opted to play smaller with Pascal Siakam ($7.5K) at the 5 and that would make this Wood-Siakam match-up REALLY intriguing in my mind because this game could play really fast. In the last two games, the Raptors have played at a 101 possession pace with Siakam at the 5 which is a 10% improvement on their season-long pace metrics.

While the Raptors have been bad defensively – so too have the Rockets. In the last 10 games, they rank bottom 5 in FG% allowed, rebounds per game allowed, assists per game allowed, and 3 PM made per game. If you are telling me, I can get the usual 35-40 minutes for guys like Siakam, Fred VanVleet ($7.6K), and Kyle Lowry ($8.1K) in this spot – at the same price points as guys like Middleton/Jrue – oh baby, hello pivot town!

Eat The Chalk

The second option – you go all-in on this chalk – but do so in the context of the game stack against the Pacers. If you eat the chalk and played 2, 3, or even 4 Bucks tonight, I think you are can double down and run it back with Indiana Pacers in the hope this game is close throughout and you get ceilings on both sides.

The nice part about this game stack is that both teams play relatively condensed rotations and the pricing is such that a game stack is easy to build at the core of your NBA DFS lineups.

Domantas Sabonis ($9K) gets to take on the same Bucks teams he faced a month ago and dropped 59 DK points against and now he has no Giannis to worry about on the interior.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7.2K) has been the model of consistency for the Pacers with 38.5 points now in 3 of his last 4 games and is averaging 40 DK points per game over his last six games which puts him at a solid 5.5x value at tonight’s price point.

Myles Turner ($5.8K) is coming off back to back strong outings with 32 and 36 DK points but that has been completely driven by two straight games with 5 blocked shots. The upside is there but boy oh boy – those blocks are a volatile commodity when it comes to NBA DFS scoring.

Caris LeVert ($6.4K) was not available the first time these teams met but he is not at a point, after three games of 30+ minutes, where the ceiling could be unlocked as the usage and offensive volume has been trending upwards.

The Pacers have played at the 10th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games and have been playing at this pace essentially since LeVert returned which is a serious uptick from the 15-20th ranking in pace they had prior to LeVert re-joining the team. If the Bucks play at a “Giannis pace” in this game, the Pacers are showing they are willing to do the same it could mean a fast-paced shootout that allows for ceilings on both sides.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This Monday Night NBA DFS slate is a monster and one that I think allows for far more strategy than simply “picking the best plays.” Anytime we get big injury news to a star player as early as we got the Giannis news, it is going to skew ownership in a major may and we need to adjust accordingly.

With Giannis doubtful to play, the NBA DFS question of the night is how you approach the Bucks chalk. Do you simply eat it and go all-in hoping the Pacers run back gives you a game stack ceiling? Or can you pivot entirely, attacking other high ceiling spots on an 8-game slate that will go over-looked? If the Bucks chalk flops, you have a path to one of those GPP memorable nights!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, March 15

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid eight-game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel and we are here to help you win big and build your bankroll as we inch closer to the start of the MLB season!If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports ...

3 years ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, February 25

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to Thursday’s NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays & slate strategy for this six-game NBA slate!

Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

In looking at this six-game NBA DFS slate on Thursday, the good news is that most of the big injury news we need is in the earlier set of games as have to keep an eye on the status of Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, and Elfrid Payton. This slate is LOADED with stars and so getting the value to plug in those ceiling plays is going to be a critical component to how we attack tonight’s action.

If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know on these smaller slates, I like to try and anchor to a game environment that I think has GPP winning upside and one that I think is mis-priced. We want star power, high totals and fast pace and while you may think I am obligated to go Brooklyn and Orlando tonight – there is a game I like far more – the late-night hammer of the Bucks and Pelicans.

The Buck Stops Here

The Milwaukee and New Orleans game checks off all the boxes I look for when building an NBA DFS GPP stack – we have a high total of 240+, a game with one of the fastest projected paces on the slate and recent trends that give us reason to exploit it.

Over the last 10 games, both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive team rating, while the Bucks continue to play at a top 5 pace in the NBA and New Orleans on the other hand has been the second-worst defensive team in the Association during that stretch.

We have talked about this now for weeks, but we can attack the Pelicans in a variety of ways – first and foremost, with the guards. No team in the NBA is giving up more three’s (17/game) than New Orleans the last 10 games while also giving up the most assists per game and allowing opponents to shoot at a 50.4% clip.

You do not have to look back far to see what this means for the opposition – just look at last night against the Pistons where the Pelicans gave up 80 DK points to the vaunted Detroit backcourt of Dennis Smith Jr., Saben Lee and Svi Mykhaliuk. When DSJ is locking in 32 fantasy points and Saben Lee gets you 28 – you know this is a trend we can continue to attack with a similar value guard like DJ Augustin ($4.1K).

It has not just been guards that have hit ceiling – the opposing big men have as well and this was a spot we were all over yesterday with Mason Plumlee who returned the favor with a 49 DK point evening and a near triple-double. This week alone we have seen opposing big men like Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams combine for nearly 70 DK points in this same spot while DeAndre Ayton dropped 40+ of his own. This could mean a ceiling performance for someone like Brook Lopez ($4.3K) and/or Bobby Portis ($4.9K).

Feels like a may have buried the lede here huh?

You are likely not starting this game stack with DJA and BroLo – so let’s jump to why you are here – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K). Giannis gets a match-up with the 2nd worst defense in the NBA the last 10 games, one he dropped 68 DK points against earlier this year in a game Jrue Holiday actually played – and well, this should not need much convincing.

Khris Middleton ($8.2K) is likely the toughest decision point from Milwaukee as we make our DFS lineups tonight. Giannis is the easy pay up and the fringe value plays like DJA or Donte DiVincenzo ($5K) are cheap ways to get exposure to their backcourt – the question is, is Middleton too pricey or not priced high enough?

Despite Jrue Holiday being sidelined, Middleton has been a horrendous DFS asset in recent games, going under 40 DK points in 7 of the last 10 games. The minutes have been there, the volume has been there but the efficiency has simply not been.

Now the flip side, there have been two games in the last 10 where Middleton has hit for 60+ DK points – once against Denver and once against Sacramento, and in both games, he flashed incredible efficiency from the floor – shooting 59% and 56% in those games.

So the path for Middleton seems simple – if he is hitting shots, he can be a slate breaker (no sh*t Sherlock – welcome to every NBA player). However, remember the match-up – the Pelicans are allowing teams to shoot the ball at a nearly 51% rate the last 10 games which ranks as the 4th worst mark in basketball. Do you know who is right above them? The same Sacramento Kings team that Middleton just dropped a 60 burger against.

Middleton to me is where this game goes from a cash game staple you pick pieces from, to a full on GPP game stack. If you think Middleton is a floor play, the safer route is to take Giannis and Augustin and stop there but as we saw against both the Kings and Nuggets, there is a path where Giannis hits his ceiling alongside Middleton if his shot is falling!

Run it Back

Now if we are taking multiple Bucks pieces, especially Middleton, assuming their offensive onslaught continues – it only makes sense to run it back with New Orleans who would need to keep this game close to get full run from the Milwaukee side.

The nice part about New Orleans is they run essentially a 6 man rotation with their starting five and Josh Hart ($5K) so you know where the minutes and production will come from.

The New Orleans side of this game is what really intrigues me about a game stack because the pricing on the entire Pelicans team is reasonable and fits easily around a Giannis-led Bucks stack.

Zion Williamson ($8.6K) is the only Pelicans player sitting over $8K on DraftKings tonight, while we can get mid-range value with 30+ minute players in Steven Adams, Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe who all sit around $5K.

If you are stacking Giannis, Middleton and DJA on the other side of this game it leaves you with nearly $5.5K per player for the rest of your build – so you start to see where the Pelicans pricing becomes an ideal run back fit.

In the earlier season meeting between these two teams, the Pelicans fantasy attack was largely balanced as you can see here via Statmuse.

That balanced production is great for the mid-range plays – but becomes an issue for ceiling if we are paying the premium for Zion and/or Brandon Ingram ($7.9K).

Honestly, I think Zion is overpriced and I also think he will be popular here tonight. At $8.6K he needs to go for 50+ DK points to hit 6x ceiling – a mark he has done just once in the last 10 games.

Ingram feels more correctly priced, as he would need 47 DK points to hit 6x value, a mark he has hit or exceeded in 4 of the last 10 games. The one “issue’ is I worry about the wing defense of Middleton and Giannis on him, but if there is one Pelicans pay up I want – I lean towards BI.

The other option would be to go more balanced with the Pelicans – ignore the Zion/BI pieces and instead live in the mid range. Stack up Lonzo Ball ($6.3K) alongside two players like Josh Hart and Eric Bledsoe – who both share positive correlation metrics with Lonzo this season.

If you are going to play someone like Steven Adams ($5.1K) this is where you need to think through correlations and his impact on others. How does Adams hit his ceiling as he did last night against Detroit with 44 DK points? He does so by pulling down 15 rebounds – meaning guys like Zion (only 6 last night) see more floor than a ceiling. This is the kind of logic you need to think through when stacking the Pelicans and how you can get leverage.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Stepping back and looking at this slate – it is LOADED with stars and so anchoring to one of them is critical but more than anything, anchroing to a game matters.

Think back to last night as an example – chalk like Jayson Tatum busts because the Celtics get blown out or a star like LeBron James gets you just 30 DK points because he was on the bench in a blowout the entire fourth quarter.

Planting your flags on a game environment is just as important as which star you anchor to and so tonight with an eye on Giannis as my premier pay up, I want to find a path to 4 quarters of ceiling and a run back in a Pelicans game stack that could be a DFS goldmine!

3 years ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, January 29

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Happy Friday my NBA DFS family and friends! After a small four game slate on Thursday we return with a monster 10 gamer on Friday Night with a ton of big prize pools, superstars, injury news and the typical chaos that follows an NBA slate of this size.

For those of you who have been checking us out for free this week, I hope you have enjoyed the plethora of NBA content across Win Daily Sports and if you want to stick around (why wouldn’t you) – make sure you grab the 55% off promo below to get all our DFS content across all sports for just $13.50 for your first month of a Gold Membership!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this ten-game slate, we have some really obvious star power and with so many big injury tags (Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi, PG13, etc) – what we likely know going into this slate is that we will have multiple paths to the value that makes getting that star power, an easy roster decision.

What we also have is multiple high total games with projected fast pace spots including the Hawks/Wizards, Kings/Raptors, 76ers/TWolves and Nets/Thunder.

When we are looking at a slate that is this large – the best thing you can do is minimize your player pool and focus on the best game environments and the best value. With so many good spots to attack – it may be easy to just cross off slow pace and low total games like the Knicks/Cavs, Magic/Clippers, and Pacers/Hornets.

One other interesting note when you step back and look at the slate from a macro perspective – 9 of the 10 games start at 8:30 PM EST or earlier with the Utah/Dallas game being the lone 10 PM EST start. I bring that up because if you are back-loading your builds, just understand you have a far smaller “late-night” pool to pull options from if you intend to late swap.

Build My Core:

The one game that really stands out to me at first glance tonight is the Bucks/Pelicans – a game that I think can be a core building block for tournaments with some serious game stack upside.

The Bucks do not need much in the way of explanation – they are a top 7 pace team in the NBA and the #1 rated offense in the league. They have concentrated usage and very clear star power – so landing on them as a core is pretty simple.

It all starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.8K) here tonight in a national TV game against the Pelicans. This is a match-up he lit up for 68 DK points last year and I think with the value we have/will have – I want to make sure I have one ceiling star at the core of my builds here tonight. The Pelicans rank in the bottom 6 in Def-Rtg this season and we just saw a similar star in Bradley Beal light up this Pelicans defense for 70+ DK points.

The secondary play for the Bucks comes down to Khris Middleton ($8.4K) or Jrue Holiday ($7K). If you didn’t think I was going to talk about Jrue REVENGE in his first game back in New Orleans – well, my friends, you were dead wrong.

I mentioned what Beal did last game against Bledsoe and company, so it is tough not to have interesting in the primary guard option for the Bucks here at just $7K. In both cases, Middleton and Jrue are the type of multi-category contributors that can easily reach a 6x ceiling alongside Giannis in the right game enviornment.

I lean towards Jrue at first glance for two reasons – if the Pelicans are without Lonzo Ball you put a worse on-ball defender in Eric Bledsoe on Jrue – with Bledsoe having the worst defensive rating of any Pelicans starter this season. Secondly, I think position needs will drive my roster decisions and with strong forwards on the other side of this game – I may opt to bypass Middleton and use Jrue to fill my PG/G slot.

The Pelicans side of this game is really intriguing to me – with or without Lonzo Ball. I mentioned this last time New Orleans played, but this slow-paced Pelicans attack has really changed with its opponents the last week – playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA the last two games against fast-paced opposition like Washington and Minnesota.

This is a massive tick up for New Orleans who has ranked in the mid 20’s all season and are seeing roughly 5 more possessions per game these last two outings versus their season average.

More possessions = more DFS potential.

If Lonzo Ball is out, this obviously gives a solid uptick to the remainder of the Pelicans and I think DraftKings has set the pricing far too low for a starting unit that drives all the usage and production.

Eric Bledsoe ($5.7K) has a 24% usage rate this season with Lonzo off the court versus a 17% rate with him on – a massive swing in his role that would allow him to reach a similar 6x ceiling as he has on average the last two fast-paced games. Oh yeah – REVENGE! DOUBLE REVENGE!

If Lonzo were to miss – it gives added boost to both Brandon Ingram ($8K) and Zion Williamson ($7.6K) as well. Ingram dropped 49 DK points on the Bucks in their last meeting a season ago and he is coming off a 53 DK point outing against Washington last game where his production spiked once Lonzo went out.

We could see Nickeil Alexander Walker ($4.2K) carve out a bigger role as well as the last stretch that Lonzo sat (1/13-1/17) – NAW played 30+ minutes in two of those games and dropped 52 and 27 DK points!

What I really love about this game is how it gives you multiple paths to build game stacks – 4v2, 3v3 and any sort of combination you can think of.

Outside of Giannis, the rest of this game is incredibly fairly priced for two teams that will play at a fast pace with condensed starting rotations that play 30-35 minutes a night. If this game stays close, you could have a GPP takedown here with the PP/$ potential on both sides.

There is also some massive position flexibility in this game and one of the things I LOVE – is how you can use Giannis OR Zion at Center on DK. I do not love Center tonight on DraftKings so being able to slide Giannis OR Zion there and fill in a weak spot with a premium play from this game is a strategy I plan to utilize heavily tonight.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Starting out today we have to keep in mind that value will be coming – its too big of a slate with too many early question marks to not see multiple paths to value. All that means getting in stars and building backwards – for me I think it starts with Giannis and building out in a Pelicans/Bucks core game stack.

Make sure you check out our FREE Cash Game Breakdown today and our custom projections!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

3 years ago 0 comment

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday, January 17

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Happy Sunday Funday my NBA DFS friends as we get set for another day of hoops as we watch some NFL Playoffs - seriously, what could be better?Well glad you asked! With Super Bowl 55 just a few weeks away, we are rolling out a SUPER promo to join the Win Daily Sports family as you can get a month pas...

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Premium

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, January 15

Jim Thomson 4 years ago

written by Jim Thomson

For the third straight night, we saw massive scores across the NBA DFS industry as the Stars And Scrubs path continued to drive profit with the undermanned Houston Rockets providing all the value we needed to go up and get the stars like Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, and Damontas Sabonis.This path was ...

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 3/8: The Fearless Five

Richard Masana 4 years ago

written by Richard Masana

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 3/8 difference-making playsin GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit 8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

****BONUS EARLY FIVE!!!****

NBA DFS 3/8 Early DraftKings Slate (3 p.m.) Fearless Five:

PG – Lonzo Ball, NO @ MIN ($8K)

SG – Malik Beasley, MIN vs. NO ($5.9K)

SF – Brandon Ingram, NO @ MIN ($7.9K)

PF – James Johnson, MIN vs. NO ($4.8K)

C – DeAndre Jordan, BKN vs. CHI ($4.9K)

Okay, on the main slate…

NBA DFS 3/8 — PG

Eric Bledsoe, MIL (@ PHO) – DK $5,400

This doesn’t need a lot of explanation, but we play Eric Bledsoe if Giannis (doubtful after a hard fall on Friday night) sits for the veteran guard’s 32.3% usage rate when the Freak is off the floor. George Hill is questionable, so that makes me lock him at PG in my early builds. No pivot necessary, but stackers can play Rubio since he’s always got 7x when he’s under $7K. Booker is also PG-eligible, but we’ll get right into that now.

Stack: Ricky Rubio

NBA DFS 3/8 — SG

Devin Booker, PHO (vs. MIL) – DK $8,400

The removal of Giannis (which we’re penciling in since he’s doubtful) helps the Suns offense tremendously, and with DeAndre Ayton still out there’s plenty of usage to go around. I’m plugging him in at SG and riding this game on both sides. One pivot idea for SG (if you feel you have too much MIL@PHO and a negative correlation with the Phoenix guards and forwards) is looking to the Spurs-Cavs game with DeMar DeRozan ($7,300 – SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) and Collin Sexton ($7,100 – PG/SG/G/UTIL).

Pivots: DeMar DeRozanand/or Collin Sexton

NBA DFS 3/8 — SF

Khris Middleton, MIL (@ PHO) – DK $6,500

If it’s looking like a game stack, that’s because it is. Middleton without Giannis still sees plenty of production, especially when the price is under $7K. We’re getting a huge bargain for a guy with 50+ upside. I also like Terrence Ross in the matchup against the Rockets, and Mikal Bridges might be an option in-game stacks. There’s a pair of obvious and more expensive) pivots in the MIA @ WAS game: Bradley Beal and Jimmy Butler – but I’m prioritizing Bam in that game.

Pivots/Value/Stack:Bradley Beal & Jimmy Butler/Terrence Ross /Mikal Bridges

NBA DFS 3/8 — PF

Julius Randle, NY (vs. DET) – DK $7,200

When Randle sees 30-35+ minutes, he gets around 40-50 DK points, so I’m excited to play him against a woeful Pistons frontcourt that doesn’t play a heck of a lot of quality defense. He should do well given Detroit’s struggle to handle versatile bigs and always has an enormous upside. I really like Aaron Gordon too in a pace-up game vs. the Rockets, and game stackers can probably even deploy Christian Wood if they have a salary in the fill-in spot. So many options, though. We’ve seen firsthand what Dario Saric can do in this Ayton-less Phoenix lineup, so he’s a decent bargain pivot given their small rotation. Ersan Ilyasova is your $3K punt if he starts.

Pivot/Bargain/Stack/Punt: AaronGordon/Dario Saric/Christian Wood/Ersan Ilyasova

NBA DFS 3/8 — C

Bam Adebayo, MIA (@ WAS) – DK $8,000

The skilled big man is just $8K, and this is a smash spotfor him. That enormous wingspan comes into play in this fast-paced game thatsports the second-highest total (after ORL@HOU’s 233) at 231.5. A lot of Heatare good plays (and I guess a couple of Wizards since they have a capable offense),so Rui Hachimura ($5K – PF/C/F/UTIL) might see minutes in the 30s again. NikolaVucevic could have a big game against a small Houston lineup as well – sincenobody should challenge him for rebounds.

Pivot/Stack: Nikola Vucevic/RuiHachimura

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 2/29: The Fearless Five

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/29 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

Tired of losing money on your NBA DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

NBA DFS 2/29 — PG

James Harden, HOU (@ BOS) – DK $10,900

Harden reignited his rivalry with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a sit-down interview with Rachel Nichols and will be looking to back up his claims tonight in a highly anticipated Leap Year Special with the Celtics. The Bearded One is essentially matchup-proof and dropped 42 real-life points (and 67 DK points) against Boston on Feb. 11. It’s weird to say he could be overlooked, but there is a bunch of interesting SG plays today and we can sneak Harden in at PG – where he’s priced a little bit higher than Trae Young and has more consistent upside. I’ll probably build about half of my GPP lineups around Harden in anticipation of lower ownership than usual and very little chance of a blowout. Trae is a fine pivot against the Blazers, but my HOU-BOS game stacks won’t be using any of the PG-eligible Celtic guards.

Pivot: Trae Young

NBA DFS 2/29 — SG

C.J. McCollum, POR (@ ATL) – DK $9,200

I really don’t care that McCollum is $9,200, because he should be over $10K, especially in a matchup with the Hawks that could see another monster game total. McCollum’s usage with the current Portland starters is a whopping 34% and he’s scored 50 or more DK points in there of his last four – the one outlier being a 43.25 DK outing against the defensively-minded Pacers. As chief playmaker for this Portland team (which is fighting with a slew of other squads in the Western Conference to snag the last playoff spot), he’s going to have to bring it every night until Damian Lillard returns. I’m fading the likely popular DeMar DeRozan at $7,600 in a low-total game against the Magic that’s guaranteed to fall well short of last night’s madness from a pace perspective, but I don’t mind taking a crack at Bryn Forbes ($3,200) when he’s easily got 8x to 10x upside as one of the Spurs primary three-point shooters and getting about 20-25 minutes. The best non-punt value pivot is probably Jaylen Brown – who was nursing ankle injuries the last time Boston faced the Rockets and is expensive enough at $6,900 to ward off high ownership. Smart is cheaper but doesn’t have the same offensive upside.

Pivot/Punt: Jaylen Brown or MarcusSmart/Bryn Forbes

NBA DFS 2/29 — SF

Mikal Bridges, PHO (vs. GSW) – DK $5,200

With Kelly Oubre out for the year, Bridges (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) has been seeing more minutes and draws a great matchup tonight against the Warriors – who struggle to defend 3&D wings like Mikal. Cam Johnson sustained an “upper-body” injury after a fall in last night’s contest that eaves him questionable for tonight’s matchup, so we could see Bridges play a bit more with the second unit as well. He’s a solid GPP option on a night where he might go overlooked and makes for a good bargain wing to include in your lineups. DraftKings lists very few SF-only players and I doubt Bridges will see much ownership with so many stud SGs (like Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan) and PFs (Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward) eligible at SF. Bridges may not have a 50-point upside like those guys, but he’s got around a 45-point ceiling and his floor comes up with the new injury to Johnson. Cam Reddish has a great motor and has been playing well, so he’s a fine pivot for a few bucks less. If Andrew Wiggins actually plays tonight, he’d make a fine stacking option – though I’m a little worried about the game blowing out.

Pivot/Stack:Cam Reddish/Andrew Wiggins

NBA DFS 2/29 — PF

Carmelo Anthony, POR (@ ATL) – DK $5,700

Carmelo is another important part of Blazers-Hawks game stacks and should be a lot busier offensively than he was at Indiana two nights ago. He’s 9-for-21 from three-point range over his last four games, including the 0-for-0 in Thursday’s loss. Melo’s in a good spot against a team that gives up big fantasy points to versatile forwards, but I’ll be pivoting down a bit for some more value in quite a few builds to Kyle Kuzma at just $4,600. Kuzma has 8x to 10x upside in a possibly LeBron-less game against Memphis where he could see 30 minutes. Game stackers should consider De’Andre Hunter, who will be playing a lot of 4 against Melo. Anthony Davis is going to drawn higher ownership, but I have some concerns, so I’m fading him. At his price, I like other guys better and if he beats me, he beats me.

Pivot/Stack: Kyle Kuzma/De’Andre Hunter

NBA DFS 2/29 — C

Marquese Chriss, GSW (@ PHO) – DK $5,400

If we played a lot of the high-value options at guard and forward, we need to find some value at C, and I’m looking no further than Chriss, who was a dud against the dominant frontcourt the Lakers threw at him. The former “Marquese de Phoenix” (I just made that up) might put up a show against the weak defense played by the Suns’ bigs, so I’m embracing the inherent risk of him not getting more than 30 minutes and focusing on his 8x upside in just 25-30 minutes. He’s a great option in Suns-Warriors stacks along with Wiggins, and the best pivot in his price range is probably Myles Turner. One punt option that stands out is ATL power big Bruno Fernando, who’s just $3,500 on DK and has been playing minutes in the 20s now. He’s got 10x upside against a team that ranks low in defensive efficiency against big men. But I have no qualms about making Bam Adebayo your center. I’m done fading that guy and will be using him in lineups where I haven’t blown my salary on guards.

Spend/Pivot/Punt: Bam Adebayo/MylesTurner/Bruno Fernando

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

NBA DFS 2/28: The Fearless Five

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/28 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.

These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!

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NBA DFS 2/28 — PG

Trae Young, ATL (vs. BKN) – DK $10,500

There are a few question marks heading into tonight’s 10-game slate, and Young is currently listed as questionable with an illness – the same designation he had Wednesday when he dropped 62.5 DK points. We’re a couple of days removed and while I expect him to be the highest fantasy scorer of slate (if Giannis and/or Luka sits), be sure to check his status before lock. That said, the matchup is a solid one and this projects to be one of a few high-total games in the 230-240 range. We can run it back with Wednesday night DFS hero Caris LeVert (PG/SF/G/F/UTIL eligible on DK but a much better price as an SG on FanDuel) or Spencer Dinwiddie, who’s under $8K on DK but hasn’t had a big offensive explosion in a spell. If you’re pivoting from this game, there’s some value/upside in Mike Conley and solid PG options in the CLE@NO game (Collin Sexton/Lonzo Ball) – though I think that’s a much more effective game stack/pairing on FD.

Value Pivot/Stack: Mike Conley/Caris LeVert orSpencer Dinwiddie

NBA DFS 2/28 — SG

Devin Booker, PHO (vs. DET) – DK $7,900

Tenacious David Jones reminded us of the NBA Podcast that tonight is Booker Bobblehead Night in Phoenix, so we’ve got a perfect storm for a huge night from Devin the Dude: A fun narrative, a fast-paced game, and an affordable price tag. He’s got about a 70-point ceiling according to our NBA projections and he’ll be a staple of my GPP builds. Donovan Mitchell is a viable pivot, but his upside is limited compared to Booker, and PHO-DET game stackers can look no further than Derrick Rose, who’s projected for 5.5x value if he gets just 26 minutes. If D-Rose can somehow garner 30-35 minutes in this one, we could see easily 50+ DK points.

Pivot/Stack: Donovan Mitchell/DerrickRose

NBA DFS 2/28 — SF

Taurean Prince, BKN (@ ATL) – DK $4,700

We could see some more value options open up at SF as injury/rotation news develops during the day, but for now, I’m fearlessly forecasting a big game from Prince playing against his old team. Prince has a decent floor but his upside is usually capped by minutes in the mid-20s. He scored 21 FD points in 21 minutes against the Hawks earlier this season (even with no blocks or steals), and if he cracks 30 minutes and can get going from long range, he’s got 8x to 10x value and 40+ points in his headlights. If you tend to scoff at narratives, you can spend up to Brandon Ingram ($7,500), and game stackers might want to give Cam Reddish or Kevin Huerter a shot.

Spend Pivot/Stack: Brandon Ingram/Cam Reddish or Kevin Huerter

NBA DFS 2/28 — PF

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, TOR (vs. CHA) – DK $4,100

This is purely a value play and I’ll only be using RHJ (just $3,700 on FD) if he starts in place of Serge Ibaka (knee, questionable). Chris Boucher is the other Toronto value PF I’m examining, so it’ll probably be one or the other logging the increased minutes and taking advantage of this smash spot if Ibaka is out. Pascal Siakam could go off as well, but he’s $8,500 and this game features a relatively low total – so it’s hard for me to see him hitting his ceiling. One pivot that’s a little more expensive is Larry Nance, who should see bigger minutes with Andre Drummond out, but I have very little interest in the Charlotte bigs unless we get word that Cozy Zeller (healthy scratch DNP-CD on Wednesday) is starting since he’s just $4,100 and has 10x upside when he sees 30 minutes. If you have lots of salaries freed up for PF, then going back to the Aaron Gordon well could work out one again.

Spend/Pivot/Stack: Aaron Gordon/LarryNance/Cody Zeller (only if starting)

NBA DFS 2/28 — C

DeAndre Ayton, PHO (vs. DET) – DK $8,100

Ayton has a legitimate 8x upside in a smash spot against the Pistons and DK is offering a tempting discount on his services compared to FD ($9,000). If you’re squeamish about playing two studs from the Suns, you can pivot to Nikola Vucevic (but don’t use him at C if you’re playing Aaron Gordon). The obvious value option is Tristan Thompson, who regularly cranks out 30+ points when he starts or sees minutes in the 25-30 range. I wish we could exploit the plus matchup that the Nets bigs have against the Hawks, but the whole Jarrett Allen/DeAndre Jordan situation is just entirely too unpredictable unless one of them gets the night off. Allen does make for an interesting option in low-stakes large-field multi-entry GPPs though – at just $5,100 he’s got 9x upside if he plays 25-30 minutes.

Pivot/Value/Deep GPP: Nikola Vucevic/Tristan Thompson/JarrettAllen (large-field GPP only)

4 years ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports

11/14 NBA DFS Positional Breakdown: Don’t Fade the Don

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

One thing you have to keep an eye on is the status updates. Not only do we have the Clippers on a back-to-back set, we also have a Nets team who could be without their two primary ball-handlers in Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. These situations will be critical to monitor for DFS today and it’s something you need to track until tip-off. With that in mind, let’s get into our 11/14 NBA DFS Picks!

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11/14 NBA DFS Point Guards

Luka Doncic, DAL at NYK

DK ($10,000) FD ($11.200)

In a short slate like this, it’s going to be tough to fade Doncic and Antetokounmpo. Let’s start off with Doncic, as he’s truly one of the best players in the NBA at the ripe age of 20. That’s evident when you see that he’s averaging 28.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game. That’s obviously absurd and it makes him very attractive against a Knicks team who sits 22^nd in defensive efficiency. Playing in Madison Square Garden is also a narrative, considering Doncic surely wants to make a name for himself in the mecca of basketball.

Eric Bledsoe, MIL vs. CHI

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,400)

Bledsoe has been much better recently and it’s clear that he’s way more comfortable with Khris Middleton sidelined. In fact, Bledsoe has a 26 percent usage rate with Middleton off the floor while averaging 1.46 DK points per minute. That’s clear when you see that he’s averaging 20.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists over his last six games. That includes lackluster defensive numbers and he’ll surely provide more of those as the season progresses.

11/14 NBA DFS Shooting Guards

Lou Williams. LAC at NO

DK ($7,700) FD ($7,000)

With Kawhi Leonard likely sitting this game out, we love Williams. In the last game without Kawhi, Williams collected 34 points, six rebounds and 11 assists in 39 minutes of action. That’s no surprise when you see that Leonard has a usage rate north of 30 percent while Williams posts a 35 percent usage rate with Kawhi off the floor. That’s truly frightening for the Pelicans, with New Orleans ranked 29^th in defensive efficiency and last in points allowed.

DeAndre’ Bembry, ATL at PHX

DK ($3,900) FD ($4,400)

Bembry was in our article two weeks ago when he had his best game of the year, so hopefully, we can work that magic again here. The Hawks are very shallow right now with Kevin Huerter, Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner and John Collins all sidelined and that has opened up the door for Bembry to play big minutes. Playing 70 total minutes over his last two games indicates just how thin they are right now and that’s really all we can ask for from a guy who’s averaging over 22 DK points across his last six games. That’s really all you can ask for from a player in the $4,000-range.

11/14 NBA DFS Small Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. CHI

DK ($11,700) FD ($12,400)

This dude might be the best player in fantasy right now. Averaging 64 DK points per game is obviously absurd, as he’s actually scored at least 58 DraftKings points in six-straight fixtures. Any guy averaging 29.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.6 blocks per game for the year is hard to avoid and we haven’t even discussed that Milwaukee is without their second-best player. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Chicago allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.

Kenrich Williams, NO vs. LAC

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,700)

With injuries to Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson, Kenrich has found himself in a pretty nice role. Not only is he starting, Williams is also averaging 29 DK points across 33 minutes of action over his last two fixtures. That’s monstrous production from such a cheap player and he should continue to see big minutes if at least two of those guys remain sidelined. He’ll be needed against a team like the Clippers too, as he’s one of their only good defensive wings.

11/14 NBA DFS Power Forwards

Dwight Powell, DAL at NYK

DK ($5,100) FD ($5,600)

Powell is just too cheap right now. While his averages may look like nothing special, we’re talking about a player who’s played at least 25 minutes in six-straight games. Powell has also scored at least 24 DK points in three of his last four games, as Dallas is finally getting comfortable keeping him out there for big minutes. That’s going to be critical against a Knicks team who seemingly has six forwards in their rotation, as that too should guarantee Powell at least 30 minutes of play. Not to mention, New York allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.

Dario Saric, PHX vs. ATL

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,700)

Saric is actually really similar to Powell. He’s playing way too much to be priced this cheaply. So far this season, Saric is averaging 24 DK points across 28 minutes a game. In the four games where Saric has played at least 30 minutes, he’s actually averaging 33.5 DK points per game, which equates to 6-7X value at this price tag. As long as DeAndre Ayton remains out, Saric should play at least 25 minutes. Those fantastic rates against a defense like this are especially attractive, with Atlanta ranked 18^th in defensive efficiency.

11/14 NBA DFS Centers

Derrick Favors, NO vs, LAC

DK ($5,500) FD ($6,600)

Favors got off to a terrible start this season because of recurring leg injuries but he appears to be fully back now. Back-to-back double-doubles will do that and he’s going to be needed with all of the aforementioned injuries in New Orleans. The most encouraging sign is that he’s played at least 29 minutes in both of those double-doubles, averaging 37 DK points per game in that span. That’s the stud we loved in his Utah days and he shouldn’t have any problem with an undersized Clippers frontcourt.

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Giannis scoring seven more points than LaVine sounds like a decent pick and we love Carter matching Markkanen in rebounds. WCJ has picked up 28 rebounds over his last two games while Lauri has 14 in that span.

5 years ago 0 comment

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