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George Springer

10/30 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!

I hope you’ve enjoyed my MLB writeups this season, and make sure you check me out on Twitter and read my NFL and PGA musings at Win Daily Sports!

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10/30 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 7 – HoustonAstros at Washington Nationals, 8:08 p.m. EST

The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!

10/30 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.

Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.

Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.

In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.

Final thoughts about pitching:

It scares me to see Greinke’s fly ball rate at 38.9 this postseason,especially with his HR/FB rate at 23.8 percent.
Scherzer will NOT want to exit this game, so expect him to challengehitters early to keep his pitch count down, except for Alex Bregman, who hewill probably walk if he can get away with it.
Patrick Corbin may pitch in this game, but his price is too oppressivefor what will be limited work. I’m not going to get cute.
We haven’t seen Houston closer Roberto Osuna since Game 3 five daysago, so he’s somebody who we could focus on at just $4K.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/30 DFS Hitters

Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).

For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.

10/30 DFS WashingtonNationals bats

Trea Turner (DK$13,200/$8,800)

Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,100/$7,400)

Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.

Spotlight Value: AsdrubalCabrera (DK $9,900/$6,600)

Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.

More 10/30 DFS options:Anthony Rendon (DK $14,400/$9,600), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800), JuanSoto (DK $14,100/$9,400), whoever catches at whatever price.

10/30 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.

Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,500/$7,000)

I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?

George Springer (DK$14,400/$9,600)

Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,800/$7,200)

Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).

More 10/30 DFS options: Alex Bregman (DK $12,600/$8,400), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,000/$4,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,500/$5,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Main narrative – Houston win)

CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced& low-scoring w/ Gurriel 3-R HR)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Natswin a score-fest, Doolittle closes)

CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

10/30 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

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HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve

I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.

4 years ago 0 comment

10/28 DFS and Betting Winners: Sports Equinox

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flash back at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/28 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/28 Win Daily DFS Winner: Aaron Jones

Here is a snippet from the NFL DFS Week 8 Sunday Night Showdown article by David Jones. Aaron Jones had a huge game against the Kansas City Chiefs with 226 combined yards. He rushed 13 times for 67 yards and added seven catches (on eight targets) for 5 yards and a pair of touchdowns. David’s previews and DFS content articles are available to Premium Gold subscribers.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Even though the production on the ground wasn’t much, Jones averaged 5.2 yards per carry. If he can remain a good pass-catching back, he will be putting up big numbers like this with regularity. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, there isn’t a huge need for a running attack so Jones could get huge receiving outings. Expect Jones to get more of a look in the passing game for now on.

10/28 DFS Winner: Boston Bruins’ First Line

The Bruins dominated their game against the New York Rangers yesterday, in large part due to their first line controlling the game. The snippet from The Daily Hot Spot highlighted their line and definitely was the deciding factor. Bergeron had a hat trick, Marchand had two goals with three assists and Pastrnak finished with five assists. Expect the Bruins to continue asserting dominance with their top line.

10/28 DFS Winner: George Springer

Here is a snippet from the World Series Showdown article. The Houston Astros have gained momentum in the World Series as they won all three games in Washington. George Springer had a great day at the plate as he went 2-for-3 with a homer, two runs, two RBI and two walks. If he can continue to have that control at the plate, expect the series to conclude tomorrow. Check our

10/28 DFS Winner: Dwight Howard

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1188663404392779776?s=20

Dwight Howard turned back the clock with this performance against the Charlotte Hornets. He finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks in 23 minutes of action. Coming off the bench is a great role for Howard and he should thrive. Eventually he should win the starting center spot if they keep Anthony Davis at the four. Against teams with weak big men, Howard should have games similar to this one.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Dwight Howard looked incredible and this is the ceiling of what the Lakers can get out of him. He still is able to dominate a game on both sides of the court. Expect the rebounding numbers to be around seven a game with the second unit but he will not score as much. He will be a great value center on a smaller slate.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/27 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re on to pivotal Game 5 of the World Series, and our 10/27 DFS picks for MLB give you the picks to win big in some GPPs and dominate cash games!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

10/27 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 5 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals again have the Astros – who justevened this series up at two games apiece – as slight favorites, with the Nats at3.0 to 3.5 and Houston coming in between 3.5 runs and 4.0. The total is around7, so we should probably utilize some SP here.

10/27 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Iprovided us with a bunch of pre-gamenotes on this matchup ahead of Game 1, and we’re right back where westarted. Checkthat piece out for more info on GerritCole (DK $16,800/$11,200) who is firmly in play because of his reducedprice, his sustained ability to throw a gem and pile up the Ks.

While Max Scherzer (DK $15,900/$10,600) was the better pitcher in Game 1, or at least finished with better numbers (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 20.5 DK FP), I’m committed to Cole here, as I think the Astros are going to take all three of these games in Washington and head back to Houston to close it out in six (just like my Yankees did in 1996!). UPDATE: Max Scherzer SCRATCHED due to back spasms. Joe Ross (DK $9,000/$6,000) getting the start and worth a look as a low-cost GPP mix in.

With therecency of Scherzer’s last start and the Astros hitters a good bunch at making adjustments(especially Alex Bregman, who finally broke through last night much to ourdelight), I think there’s an opportunity to mix in some lineups with Cole atUTIL and an Astros 1-4 hitter in the top spot.

About two outof 10 of my GPP lineups will have Scherer, and five or six out of 10 willroster Cole.

Let’s talkabout hitters we like.

10/27 DFS Hitters

The three Astros I like best tonight are George Springer, Alex Bregmanand Michael Brantley – with some shares of Jose Altuve and Yuri Gurriel. For Washington,it’s going to be Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, with shares of Ryan Zimmermanand Victor Robles.

10/27 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Game 1 heromakes for the smartest allocation of funds for Nats bats, and he’s the mosteffective left-handed bat on the team and a bona fide star in the making. Workhim into at least half of your Nats-focused builds.

Trea Turner (DK $13,500/$9,000)

Turner’s power-speed combo is a pathway to fantasy points against atough opponent, and you can count on a stolen base if he gets aboard early. He’sstill waiting to break out in this series and I could see a 2-for-5 game withan XBH and a steal.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,700/$7,800)

Eaton went hitless last night, his first postseason game without ahit since October 9 facing the Dodgers, when he still finished with a run. Hehad two hits in Game 1.

Spotlight Value: Victor Robles (DK $10,500/$7,000) and RyanZimmerman (DK $9,600/$6,400)

We’re rolling with Robles and Zimmerman, who are both $7K or under as a UTIL, and either could be a pathway top both Cole and Scherzer if you’re counting on a pitchers’ duel. These two and Turner probably make the most sense as low-price captain options if you like the Nats and don’t want to spend up for Soto.

Other 10/27 DFS options: AnthonyRendon (DK $15,000/$10,000), Asdrubal Cabrera (DK $10,200/$6,800). If he plays:Kurt Suzuki ($8,700/$5,800)

10/27DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Springer had a monster Game 1 and looks ready to continuepestering Nats’ pitching at the top of the Houston lineup. It’s been one gameoff, one game on for him this WS, and today he should be on.

Alex Bregman (DK $13,200/$8,800)

He’s no longer cheaper than Adam Eaton, but he’s cheaper. And he’sstill less expensive than Turner, Springer and Altuve and in a much better spotto drive in runs and connect on a long ball. The ineffectiveness againstScherer ion Game 1 gives me some pause, but not enough to not use him in mycore Houston builds.

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is always a good play, and he’s be part of my Houstonbuilds where I use a closer. He’s still just the fourth most expensive hitterand has the most impressive postseason resume.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($12,000/$8,000)

Brantley had three more hits last night and his price only came upto $8K for the utility spot. He’s not as cheap as he was, but he’s got a goodtrack record against Scherzer and if he can stay ahead in counts could may theNats pay.

Other 10/27 DFS options: YuriGurriel (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick(DK $7,200/$4,800), Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000)

Sample DKGPP lineup #1 (Houston-heavy w/ Cole)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,200)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna (3,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2(Balanced w/value up top)

CPT – V. Robles ($10,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,400)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (w/Scherzer and Nats closer)

CPT – R. Zimmerman ($9,600)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,800)

10/27 DFS Hitters for FD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1(Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($7,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

Sample FD lineup (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – H. Kendrick ($4,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)

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Cole Under 8.5, Scherzer Under 7.5 — 3x Buy In

I have Cole at 7-8 Ks and Scherzer at 6-7, so that put both under for 3x! We did good last night with the Bregman HR, so lets keep it up!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/26 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Are you ready for an exciting Game 4 of the World Series? Our 10/26 DFS picks for MLB will make you ready – to take down the GPPs and win your cash games!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/26 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 4 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals have this game about dead even at4.25 runs apiece. The 8.5 total is the highest of the series so far.

10/26 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

A quick word on starting pitching: Patrick Corbin (DK $15,600/$10,400) is worth a look even at his high price for his strikeout upside, but the Astros lineup doesn’t whiff at the rates the Dodgers did, so I’m not nearly as intrigued by his impressive but small-sample 17.58 K/9 rate this postseason. Last night’s winning GPP entries didn’t have any shares of the pitchers, so I’ll be fading both and focusing on adding the right bats. We nailed Victor Robles yesterday and need more of those calls to take down a GPP.

I’ll mix in some shares of Corbin and Jose Urquidy (DK $11,700/$7,800) who’s got some upside but will pitch about 4.0 IP maximum – since he hasn’t reached 50 pitches in either of his postseason outings. Those Urquidy outings have been effective (16.62 K/9, 2.08 ERA, 2.98 FIP in 4.1 IP), but he’d likely need to exceed 12 DK points to make him a viable GPP option, so I’ll have limited exposure.

Let’s get tothe bats.

10/26 DFS Hitters

I’m partial to George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit Corbin’s main offerings of fastballs and sliders, but since Alvarez sits, we’ll use Michael Brantley. Once again, I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters. For Washington, I’ll be using larger shares of Soto, Rendon and Eaton, who has multiple hits in three straight games and is almost as expensive as Jose Altuve.

10/26 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $16,200/$10,800)

Soto scuffled abit at the plate last night, but he draws a perfectly exploitable matchupagainst a hittable Astros opener and RHP-only bullpen. I’m not going to fadehim in this spot.

Anthony Rendon (DK $16,500/$11,000)

Rendon destroys fastballs and remains a key part of the Natslineup. He’s just too expensive (the most expensive in the Showdown, actually) touse in every lineup, and there’s better value out there on the Houston sidethis game. But he hasn’t homered since the Dodgers series, so he’s due.

Adam Eaton (DK $13,800/$7,600)

Eaton has multiple hits in there straight and we listed him as avalue play along with Robles. Both were in the winning GPP last night. Whilethe price has come up for the Nats’ two-hitter, he had a .152 ISO vs. RHPs thisseason and he’s on a hot streak – and that’s plenty of reason to keep usinghim.

Spotlight Value: Yan Gomes (DK $8,700/$5,800)

If Kurt Suzuki sits, this is a no-brainer value to mix in. Gomes will be guaranteed ABs at his home park, and despite the fact he likes to hit lefties better (.217 ISO vs. LHPs in 2019) than righties, he’s still sporting a .151 ISO against RHPs – an acceptable figure at this low price. He’s not a must-play, but he’s worth using in GPPs for his power and guaranteed ABs if Suzuki is unavailable. I still like Robles too, but he’s expensive now.

Other 10/26 DFS options:Trea Turner (DK $15,000/$10,000), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $11,100/$7,400), VictorRobles (DK $12,300/$8,200)

10/26DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Springer is starting to heat up and make things happenoffensively. He reached base three times last night and had a pair of SBs, andhe matches up extremely well against LHP Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin couldrocked from the first pitch he throws, and Springer has hit 36 leadoff homeruns in his career already.

Alex Bregman (DK$13,500/$9,000)

He’s cheaper than Adam Eaton now. Let that sink in, then plug himinto all your cash games and most of your GPPs. Yesterday’s 0-5 showingfeatured just one K, and he destroys LHPs, so I’m far from fading him.

Jose Altuve (DK $14,100/$9,400)

Altuve is a fine play in GPPs and his price has come down. We can probably build a few lineups stacking the Astros 1-4 hitters at these prices, and filling in with value plays from Washington and/or some low-cost relievers.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,200/$6,800)

The price on Brantley just refuses to come up, and he’s coming offtwo straight two-hit games – last night’s being the best of the series so far.He does come out of the lineup in the later innings for a defensive replacement,but he can do enough damage in his first three ABs to neutralize that.

Other 10/26 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,300/$4,200), Robinson Chirinos (DK $7,500/$5,000) or Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000) – whomever gets the start

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Houston-heavy,no SP)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,200)

UTIL – Y. Gomes (5,800)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2(Balanced w/Nats closer)

CPT – J. Soto ($16,200)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($9,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (w/Corbin and Nats closer)

CPT – Y. Gomes ($8,700)

UTIL – P. Corbin ($10,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – J. Soto ($10,800)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($9,200)

Sample DK GPP Lineup #4 (Urquidyand Osuna)

CPT – G. Springer ($14,700)

UTIL – J. Urquidy ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($7,400)

10/26 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1(Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – G. Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($4,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,000)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2(Nats-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Rendon ($8,000)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,000)

UTIL – Bregman ($7,500)

Sample FD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Rendon ($8,000)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($5,000)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)

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Home Run Derby: Bregman, Springer and Soto

Goal 0.50 – 2x: We can get ahead of the odds here and bank on one of these three going deep on Saturday night in Game 4. Getting 4x for two homers isn’t a bad get either.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/25 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re back in Washington for Game 3 of the World Series, and our 10/25 DFS picks for MLB highlight some money-making gems that might slip under the radar.

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10/25 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 3 – Houston Astros at WashingtonNationals, 8:07 p.m. EST

Projected implied totals have the Nats scoring about 3.5-4.0runs, and the Astros scoring about 4.0-4.5.

10/25 DFS SP Strategy and Game Notes

Zack Greinke ($15,900/$10,600)

Greinke has been the Astros’ third starter all postseason – and remains in that role for the World Series. He’s struggled at times this postseason but managed to pave the way for an Astros victory in his last start on Thursday October 17 in Game 4 of the ALCS. I think the Astros like their chances tonight with him on the mound.

Home runs have been a particular problem for Greinke – he’s allowed five this postseason. And he’s pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 6.40 FIP while averaging just 4.67 innings per start.

Nats hitters have plenty of experience against Greinke buthave hit only 3 HRs in 217 ABs – Kurt Suzuki, Anthony Rendon and Matt Adamseach have one.

Park factor is better for lefties in Nationals park, so wemay want to increase shares of the lefty bats in both lineups – even thoughGreinke’s splits show that lefties are not a problem for him.

One thing we can keep in mind is that Nationals hitters don’t match up very well to the Astros pitchers’ breaking stuff, while Astros hitters haven’t shown a problem hitting it, with elite metrics from their best hitters – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez among them – at connecting with both Uncle Charlie and the slider.

Anibal Sánchez ($13,800/$9,200)

Sanchez has been nearly unhittable this postseason, sporting a 0.71 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He whiffed nine Dodgers bats on October 6 and despite yielding 12 fly balls against the Cards’ hitters in Game 1 of the NLCS, he gave up just one hit (and one walk) en route to twirling a 7.2 IP, 103-pitch gem that saw him strike out five batters.

We can’t expect that kind of performance against theAstros, who make better contact than the Dodgers, especially against breakingballs. When Sanchez entered the league in 206 with the Marlins, he was throwinghis fastball 60.8% of the time. In 2019, for the Nats, that number was down tojust 35.4% — as he’s added a cutter that makes up about 27.5% of his total pitches.

Sánchez throws a mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance,including a 90-mph four-seam fastball, a slow change, and a cutter. He alsomixes in a splitter – a pitch that claimed two strikeouts against RussellMartin in the NLCS.

If he’s going to get strikeouts against the Astros, it willbe via the changeup, which he throws more often against lefties but willuti8lize as an inside offering to RHBs. The main concerns for Sánchez and theNationals in Game 3 are how deep he can go in the game and preventing a biginning.

Here’s what I’ll be doing:

Greinke is more of a GPP play with Sanchez more likely tomake value in cash, though I don’t think either is a lock for inclusion here –as there are ways for this game to play out that neutralize pitchingeffectiveness.

Neither is essential for the Captain spot and having one ofthem in that slot doesn’t necessarily make for the best approach in large-fieldGPPs – though we’ll explore it in our sample builds.

10/25 DFS Hitters

I’m partial to Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit off-speed stuff, with Gurriel and Brantley possible game-changers with their value. I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters As for the Nats, Soto, Rendon and Kendrick make sense for their performance against sliders, change-ups and curves – which make up Greinke’s non-fastball repertoire.

NOTE: Kendrick is not in the Game 3 starting lineup

10/25 DFS Washington Nationals bats

AnthonyRendon (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Rendon is the most expensive hitter in the Showdown despitehitting just one home run this postseason, so he’s not necessarily a great pickfor the Captain spot. I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs, but the Nats hittersaren’t as much of a priority despite the 2-0 lead and home game.

JuanSoto (DK $15,000/$10,000)

Soto is 6-for-his-last-11 with a HR, three doubles and four RBIs and runs scored. He’s a 20-yar-old revelation who’s thriving in his first postseason to a .289/.385/.556 slash, .381 wOBa and 133 wRC+. You’ll want some shares, though the price has come up.

HowieKendrick (DK $13,800/$9,200)

If the Astros pitchers are too careful with Soto, they’ll have to get by Kendrick, who’s come up big in the postseason on more than one occasion. He hits RHPs well (.930 OPS and .221 ISO in 2019) and remains a core build for Game 3. NOTE: Kendrick is not starting Game 3. Pivot your Kendrick shares to Trea Turner in Nats stacks and prioritize Rendon and Robles if you need to rebuild.

SpotlightValue: Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800) and Adam Eaton (DK $11,400/$7,600)

We hit Suzuki last time,and he was the Captain on the winning DK lineups. This time we’re puttingRobles in the spotlight, as he’s got the requisite speed and power to impact thisgame, as his price is low enough that putting him in the captain spot couldallow for Sanchez and more power bats in Nats-heavy builds. Eaton is also cheapand is heating up at the plate, which is a good sign for a guy who hits earlyin the Nats lineup.

Other10/25 DFS options: Trea Turner (DK $14,100/$9,400), Ryan Zimmerman (DK $10,500/$7,000),Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,900/$6,600)

10/25 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,500/$9,000)

We said he was due – andwhile his glove let him down on one key play, there’s nothing wrong with hisbat, as suspected. Bregman is patient (35.1% swing rate) and powerful (.296 ISOin 2019) – the best hitter on the team. And while he’s only a little betterthan league average against cutters, he destroys fastballs and curveballs. He won’tbe overmatched, his price on DK has dropped, and will be eager to avenge someof the mistakes he made in Game 2.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve is impossible toavoid when building Astros lineups, and his career postseason numbers (.293/.356/.549slash, 13 HRs and 141 WRC+ in 202 ABs). there’s no need for major analysis here,because we know what he’s capable of and that we need to mix him to get someexposure.

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,900/$8,600)

The price has come up a bit, but Alvarez now hashits in two straight games and just two Ks over that span. He’s got greatagainst cutters, so I won’t have 100 per4cent exposure but I’d be remiss if I didn’tinclude him as a high-upside option in this Showdown.

SpotlightValue: Yuri Gurriel ($11,700/$7,800)

Gurriel hits righties better than lefties and smashes cutters and curveballs – which is how Sanchez is going to tackle this Astros lineup. He offers oodles of upside at a cheap price and benefits from relatively low ownership. Just as Game 3 of the ALCS was his breakout game, this matchup puts him in another excellent spot for a homer and multiple hits.

NOTE: Alvarez may not be in the starting lineup with no DH. Use Gurriel if he’s starting at 1B.

Other 10/25 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $12,300/$8,200), George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600), Josh Reddick (DK $7,200/$4,800), Robinson Chirinos (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK GPP lineup #1 (w/Greinke)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($11,700)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced w/no pitchers)

CPT – V. Robles ($11,100)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($10,000)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,400)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,600)

SampleDK GPP lineup #3 (w/ Greinke and Houston closer)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup #4 (Nats w/Sanchez and Doolittle)

CPT – J. Soto ($15,000)

UTIL – A. Sanchez ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

10/25 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

You know the routine –no pitchers to consider so we can have some fun with the hitters!

SampleFD GPP lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Gurriel($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman($8,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,500)

SampleFD GPP lineup #2 (Nats-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve($9,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,000)

UTIL – V. Robles ($5,500)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)

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Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Home Run Derby: Gurriel, Soto and Bregman

Goal 1.50 – 4x: I feel like these three offer the most upside for home runs based on the matchup. If you want to get crazy and bet on three HRs total, that’ll yield you 6x your bet.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/23 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The World Series continuestonight in Houston after a big win from the Nats – so check out our 10/23 DFSpicks for MLB at Win Daily Sports.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/23 DFS MLB: DK Showdown (8:07p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 2 – Washington Nationals atHouston Astros, 8:07 p.m. EST

10/23 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Last night’s top Showdown entries had Max Scherzer, but noGerrit Cole, as the Houston ace struggled to put way batters, gave up five ERand notched just six Ks. It also had Sean Doolittle, so my lineups with Coleand Osuna yesterday were on the right track – I just had the wrong winning team.

Stephen Strasburg’s postseason numbers are almost asridiculous as Cole’s were heading into last night’s matchup, so I’ll considerhim the analog to Cole’s 1A yesterday. The Nationals hurler has less than one-quarterof the postseason experience that Justin Verlander does, and his metrics in thatmuch smaller sample are superior:

Strasburg: 1.10 ERA, 2.07 SIERA, 12.51 K/9,1.10 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 35.6 K% (41.0 IP)
Verlander: 3.26 ERS, 3.09 SIERA, 9.98 K/9, 2.75BB/9, 1.03 WHIP, 27.8 K% (176.2 IP)

We’ll have shares of both in our lineup builds, though I’llbe taking more Strasburg in cash games given Verlander’s propensity to serve upthe long ball:

Verlander has a career postseason 1.17 HR/9 and0.93 for his entire career
Strasburg has a career postseason 0.44 HR/9 and0.89 for his entire career

I still think playingboth in cash games is viable, and I’ll shift more GPP ownership to Verlander.

Morenotes:

Verlander has faced these Nats hitters 274times and yielded just 4 homers to them, posting a .248/.306/.365 slash, withAsdrubal Cabrera having the most experience and success (21-for-76 with 3 HR).
The Astros are again about one-run favoriteswith an implied total of about 4.0 to the Nats’ 3.0. Last night’s game finishedtwo runs over the projected total (one for each team, but reversed), so it’snot worth throwing these numbers out just yet.
Once again, stay tuned to the starting lineups– we could get some value from unlikely sources.

10/23 DFS Hitters

We’ll stick to the overall theme of the playoffs here, as that seemed to play out last night save for the solo shot by Ryan Zimmerman and the better plate approach from Yordan Alvarez, which we can get behind a bit more here. My player writeups for yesterday were a bit long because it was Game 1, so I’ll stick to one key thought for each player here and you can refer back to my previous writeup if you need more info.

10/23 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Rendon has not faced Verlander before and is still a dangerous batin the heart of a solid lineup. We have to consider him, especially since he’sbeen quiet and has no trouble hitting RHPs. His price jumped $200 too (because theSPs don’t cost as much), so he’s definitely in play for GPPs.

TreaTurner (DK $13,500/$9000)

My writeup on Turner wasspot-on yesterday and it applies again today. If he’s on base, he’s in business.And he does have power (.200 ISO in 2019). I’ll have shares, though maybe notas much as last night.

JuanSoto (DK $13,200/$8,800)

Again – the analysis wassolid, but I didn’t trust him enough to warrant the top captain spot in my GPPbuilds. He’s a hitter who thrives on confidence, but his ownership will bethrough the roof for Game 2. You’ll need some shares, just don’t go overboard.

SpotlightValue: Kurt Suzuki (DK $9,300/$6,200)

Last night’s valuespotlight didn’t play, but his replacement did, and he hit a homer. Tonight, werun the same risk if they decide to roll out Yan Gomes instead of Suzuki – who’s14-for-42 career off Verlander with just 4 Ks – a stat which stuck out as muchas any considering Verlander’s 24.7% career K rate.

Other options: Howie Kendrick (DK $12,900/$8,600), Adam Eaton (DK $10,500/$7,000), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800)

10/23 DFS Houston Astros bats

JoseAltuve (DK $14,700/$9,800)

Altuve ended up 1-for-5last night and still reached double digit points on DK, so a multi-hit gamemakes him worthy of usage in our builds, and consideration as the main hitterfor our Astros-heavy lineups. He’s 2-for-5 off Strasburg in his career, whichain’t much – but it’s a start.

AlexBregman (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The guy is due. Bregman took a gift pitch from Sean Doolittle right over the heart of the plate yesterday because he was overthinking location and looking away – and he’ll likely not make that same mistake again. I trust his bat and his approach, so we’re going back to the well with him against Strasburg (2-for-3 career).

Yordan Alvarez (DK $12,300/$8,200)

I’m fully aboard the Alvarez redemption train, as theyoung slugger went 2-for-3 in Game 1 and could easily break through with adinger tonight. He did hit 27 in 357 ABs during the regular season, and he’s beenon a homerless slump for far too long.

CarlosCorrea (DK $12,000/$8,000)

Correa was one of the fewAstros that actually looked overmatched by Scherzer last night (1-for-5, 3 Ks),even though the Nats’ pitcher didn’t have his best stuff. It’s possibly hisback was bothering him a bit, so I’m going to reduce my shares, which weremassive for Game 1.

SpotlightValue: Robinson Chirinos (DK $7,500/$5,000)

It’s catcher day in Game 2 of the World Series. Thevalue is there, and the guy has plenty of power (18 HRs in 388 ABs in 2019).Catchers also have a knack for hitting mistake pitches very well, and Strasburgdoes make mistakes.

Other 10/23 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $11,700/$7,800), George Springer (DK $13,800/$9,200), Michael Brantley (DK $10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick (DK $8,100/$5,400)

SampleDK Cash or GPP lineup (Strasburg up top, no Verlander – $700 left)

CPT – S. Strasburg ($15,900)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($5,400)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,200)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP lineup (Verlander up top, no Strasburg)

CPT – J. Verlander ($17,100)

UTIL – Bregman ($9,400)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez ($8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – A. Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston heavy with $500 left)

CPT – Y. Alvarez ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos (5,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (Houston-heavy with $2,100 left)

CPT – A. Bregman ($14,100)

UTIL – J. Verlander ($11,600)

UTIL – Y. Alvarez (8,200)

UTIL – R. Chirinos ($5,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK GPP Lineup (No pitchers)

CPT – J. Soto ($13,200)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,800)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,000)

UTIL – K. Suzuki ($6,200)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

10/23 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon hitters and try to find the bombs in the MVP and All-Star spot.

SampleFD lineup #1 (Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Altuve($9,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Alvarez($6,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

SampleFD lineup #2 (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Rendon($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Suzuki ($5,500)

UTIL – A. Cabrera($6,000)

Sample FD lineup #3 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Bregman($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Soto($8,000)

UTIL – Springer ($8,500)

UTIL – Chirinos ($4,500)

UTIL – Zimmerman ($5,000)

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Pick the Players for Most Fantasy Points — Goal: 19.50, Prize: 5x

Springer, Soto and Altuve

We hit on the 2x bet with the Soto HR last night and tonight were going back to the well with him and couple of hot-hitting, speedy Astros. Making 20 fantasy points among the three seems like a great wager at 5x, so lets go for it!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/19 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown and Prop Picks

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

The 10/19 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports are ready, as the Yankees forced a Game 6 in the ALCS and hopped the first flight back to Houston

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10/19 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

10/19 DFSSP Strategy and Picks

The only pitcher I’ll have more than 10 percent exposure to herewill be Jose Urquidy, who ha a shot at pitching 2-3 innings of high-strikeout actionagainst a Yankees team that can pile up Ks and just had to fly back to Houston.Urquidy has 4 Ks in 1.2 IP of postseason action and finished the regular seasonwith a 24% K rate. He’s an option, I don’t like the Yankees options facing anAstros team that’s going to have great ABs.

Let’s move on to the hitters. That’s what we’re doing on FanDuelanyway – where our first sample lineup from 10/18 performed quite well.

10/19 DFS Hitters

The top hitter picks for the 10/19 DFS Showdown are going to bepretty balanced, leaning toward the Astros, especially without much worry aboutforcing in pitchers. Unfortunately, all the pricing for hitters is up and verytight – since we have no aces on the mound.

10/19 DFS New York Yankeesbats

Gleyber Torres (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Just one hit (a double) last night, but he’s got an excellent plate approach with the requisite kind of discipline that leads to production in key spots. None of the Yankees have faced Urquidy before, so I trust approach as much as anything here. I’m going right back to the well even though the price is up a tad.

DJ LeMahieu (DK $15,600/$10,400)

The ownership will be higher, but so is the price (higher than JoseAltuve!) – so I’m going to build a few lineups with Torres, LeMahieu and avalue Yankees bat, with a balanced group of Astros I like. Yesterday’s leadoffbomb may have been a Yankee Stadium special, but LeMahieu is aggressive at theplate and has excellent protection in the lineup, which coming back around sometimesprovides him ample baserunners to knock in a few (107 RBI in 2019). I might belower owned than last night, but he’s still part of my core build.

Gary Sanchez (DK $10,800/$7,200)

The price shot upbecause of the lag from Game 4’s HR, but I’m not off Gary. Hitters like thisneed to bust through their bad stints, and this certainly is a park where hehas an advantage, as the HR Park Factor for away RHBs was 156 for Minute Maidin 2019. If he’s in the lineup, I’m using him.

Aaron Hicks (DK $9,900/$6,600) and Aaron Judge ($13,800/$9,200)

The Aarons will be popular, and while I like them both in this matchup, the prices are also much higher. I’ll be around 20-40 percent ownership for both of them but they’re not core builds because of ownership (Hicks) and the price jump (Judge).

Otheroptions: Didi Gregorius (DK $8,100/$5400), Brett Gardner (DK $11,100/$7,400)

10/19 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Alex Bregman (DK $16,200/$10,800)

You can only avoid Bregman’sbat for so long, and he hit some balls on the screws last night that were rightat guys. He’s going to avoid high ownership because of the price, and he’s probablygoing to get a couple ABs against J.A. Happ tonight. The entire Houston lineupbrutalizes Happ, and I want the ringleaders (Bregman, Altuve and Yordan Alvarez)in as many lineups as they’ll fit.

George Springer (DK $15,900/$10,600) andCarlos Correa ($12,600/$8,400)

My outlook on both of these guys is similar – I’m going to beusing them together in stacks with Bregman and Altuve when possible, but mostlygrabbing one or the other. Springer makes more sense as a cash game play thanCorrea, who I like better for GPPs, even with Correa’s price staying the same.

JoseAltuve (DK $15,300/$10,200)

Altuve is itching for another breakout like he in Game 3, and he’sa much better hitter at home (.306/.372/.608 slash this season at home). I’llhave more shares than last night in GPPs, especially since the salary didn’tjump much.

Other10/18 DFS options: Martin Maldonado ($5,400/$3,600) Michael Brantley (DK $11,400/$7,600),Yordan Alvarez ($14,100/$9,400)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Yankees heavy):

Captain (1.5x) – G. Sanchez (10,800)

UTIL – A. Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Torres ($9,600)

UTIL – Gregorius ($6,200)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy)

Captain (1.5x) – Jose Altuve ($15,300)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – J. Urquidy ($8,200)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

SampleDK Showdown Lineup (Balanced w/just bats for both teams):

Captain (1.5x) – Torres ($14,400)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,600)

UTIL – Hicks ($6,600)

UTIL – Judge ($9,200)

UTIL – Maldonado ($3,600)

10/19 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

The prices haven’t changed much so we can tackle this similarly tolast night, though I’ll be using more Astros. I was very Yankees-heavy lastnight and it worked out.

SampleFD lineup (Yankees heavy, $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Torres ($6,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Judge ($7,500)

UTIL – Altuve ($9,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Astros heavy — $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

UTIL – Alvarez ($7,000)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($7,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced – $500 left):

MVP (2x) – Judge ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)

UTIL – Sanchez ($6,000)

UTIL – Correa ($8,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

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Aaron Judge (+0.5), Jose Altuve (+0.5) and Gleyber Torres (+0.5)

I prefer Judge because he’s just as much of a threat to score as Springer and benfits from more RBI chances because of the Yankees 9 and 1 hitters.

Altuve is my pick because Yankee pitchers have been less careful with him than Bregman, who they’ve been staying away from. I really like the +0.5 here too,

I can’t rely at all on Stanton, and Torres is my guy. Let’s take it down!!!

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/18 DFS MLB: ALCS Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

With the Astros up 3-1, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination in the ALCS. We’ve got your 10/18 DFS picks for the featured Showdown contests.

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10/18 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(7:08 p.m. EST)

10/18 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Astros ace JustinVerlander has the edge in upside and in most scenarios will go deeper into thisgame than Yankees LHP James Paxton – though the Yankees have a slight edge in theimplied totals. You don’t need both pitchers in this one, and I’ll likely have someexposure to both starters, even with Paxton considerably cheaper.

Justin Verlander (DK $18,000 CPT, $12,000UTIL)

There’s always the possibility that Verlander throws one of his trademark gems against the Bronx Bombers on their home turf, but the righthander’s vulnerability to the long ball makes him a risky option at such a high price. The veteran hurler – a future Hall of Famer who’s posted the highest K/9 rates of his entire 15-year career in 2018 (12.20 K/9) and 2019 (12.11 K/9) – has struggled a bit this postseason but struck out 12 batters in six innings as recently as Sept. 28. If you’re building Verlander lineups with him at Captain, the implication is that you’ll be fading Yankee bats, so you’ll probably need to employ some creativity if you also want the big Houston bats.

James Paxton (DK $12,900 CPT, $8,900 UTIL)

The price is right, and the upside is there, but Paxton hasn’tgiven us his best so far this postseason. He has, however, struck out 11batters in 7 IP, and although the Astros don’t whiff all that often, they’lllikely come out aggressive at the plate with a 3-1 lead in the series. IfPaxton’s stuff is on point, he could easily post double-digit Ks over 5-6innings of work.

10/18 DFS Hitters

Who’s going to be the hero of Game 5, if not one of the startingpitchers? Here are my top hitter picks for the 10/18 DFS Showdown.

10/18 DFS New York Yankees bats

Gleyber Torres (DK $12,300/$8,200))

If he’d come up big with the bases loaded against Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning last night, he’d probably be the odds-on favorite for World Series MVP heading into Game 5, but the 22-year-old is still looking to bolster his batting resume with a standout performance in Yankee Stadium. He’s still slashing .345/.406/.793 this postseason, with the only knock being his relatively futility against Verlander thus far (1-for-12 with 5 Ks).

DJ LeMahieu (DK $13,500/$9,000)

Torres hasn’t had much success against Verlander, but LeMahieuis 5-for-15 career with a homer and just two Ks. He’s got Aaron Judge hitting rightbehind him and should get some pitches to hit as the Yankees leadoff hitter onFriday night.

Gary Sanchez (DK $7,800/$5,200)

He parked one into the left field stands last night and is massively underpriced – even in this difficult matchup against Verlander, who has owned him (2-for-19, 5 Ks). Gary is still pretty scary, though, and he’ll be a chalky value play in this Showdown. It’ll be interesting to see if Aaron Boone moves him up a little further in the lineup tonight.

Other options: Didi Gregorius (DK $8,100/$5400), Aaron Judge ($11,400/$7,600), Aaron Hicks ($8,400/$5,600)

10/18 DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,100/$9,400)

Last night’s homer – Springer’s 13th career postseason HR in 166 at-bats – was a powerful statementby the leadoff man that he’s ready for another big night in Game 5, and hismatchup against Paxton and subsequent relievers should give him plenty of chancesto make his mark. The price is high, but he’ll be the main Astros hitter I havein my builds.

Carlos Correa ($12,600/$8,400)

Like Springer, Correa hit his second homer of the postseasonand the 10^th of his postseason career. Springer and Correa form quitethe power tandem, as that was sixth time those two have homered in the samegame in the postseason – an all-time MLB record, according to a tweet by STATS.Correa has good numbers vs. LHP (138 career wRC+, .371 wOBA) and Paxton in particular(9-for-22 career).

Jose Altuve (DK $15,000/$10,000)

It’ll be tough to fit in Altuve at the Captain spot, but he’scertainly viable in Astros-heavy lineups that fade Verlander. He’s slashing.351/.385/.730 this postseason with four homers and seven runs scored in just39 plate appearances.

Other 10/18 DFS options: Michael Brantley (DK $10,200/$6,800), Alex Bregman (DK $14,700/$9,800), Yordan Alvarez ($13,800/$9,200), Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000)

Note: Robinson Chirinos may sit after he got banged up last night behind the plate, so stay tuned to who’s donning the “tools of ignorance” for Houston tonight.

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Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Yankees heavy):

Captain (1.5x) – G. Torres ($12,300)

UTIL – J. Paxton ($8,600)

UTIL – LeMahieu ($9,000)

UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Springer ($9,400)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy w/Verlander):

Captain (1.5x) – Verlander ($18,000)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Reddick ($4,800)

UTIL – Springer ($9,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup (Astros heavy w/justbats for both teams):

Captain (1.5x) – Springer ($14,100)

UTIL – Correa ($8,400)

UTIL – Brantley ($6,800)

UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)

UTIL – Altuve ($10,000)

10/18 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Without pitchers in the player pool, there’s a need for evenmore variance in your lineup building. Try to leave a few bucks on the table inthe larger contests and don’t worry about having the most expensive player inthe MVP slot.

Sample FD lineup (Yankees heavy – $500 left):

MVP (2x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Springer ($9,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)

UTIL – Torres ($7,000)

UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)

Sample FD lineup (Astros heavy — $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)

UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)

Sample FD lineup (Balanced – $1,000 left):

MVP (2x) – Correa ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)

UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)

UTIL – Torres ($7,000)

UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)

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Justin Verlander Under 7.5 Strikeouts & James Paxton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (3x WIN)

Verlander would normally be a pretty safe bet to reach eight Ks, but the more the Yankees see of the veteran, the more they’ll provide excellent ABs. I expect Verlander to challenge hitters in Game 5 and as a result, there will be more balls put in play early in counts.

We’re also counting on Paxton giving us his best stuff. As I mentioned before, he’s whiffed 11 batters in 7 IP this postseason, and I expect him to go a little deeper into this game than he did in Game 2.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/13 MLB DFS Postseason DK Showdown – ALCS

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s 10/13 DFS and we’ve got another ALCS game on tap tonight – let’s get right to the MLB picks for the Showdown contest on DraftKings.

10/13 DFS DK Showdown

The game: New York Yankees at Houston Astros (8:08 p.m. EST)

General strategy: Justin Verlander is super expensive, and theYankees hitters looked good last night in just about all their ABS against Greinke,so I don’t think I’ll be using JV much at all in my DK builds. I’m primarilyconcerned with using Paxton as contrarian and getting Gleyber Torres and DidiGregorius in all my lineups.

10/13 DFS Showdown – Captain Spot

Pitchers: Using Paxton or Verlander at the top spot makesit tough to get in decent bats from either side, so that’s not my preferred routehere.

CPT Option1: Didi Gregorius ($9,600)

Didi hasfour hits in his last seven ABs including a home run, and he’s driven in sixruns during that two-game span. He’s inexpensive and using him at CPT gives youflexibility at the UTIL spots.

CPT Option 2: DJ LeMahieu ($14,100)

If you’re looking for a contrarian CPT play on the Yankees who’s not intimidated by Verlander, consider LeMahieu – who’s electric in the leadoff spot and has all kinds of upside. The price is a little high but if he’s not my CPT, he’s in one of my UTIL spots.

10/13 DFSShowdown – Utility Options

Big spends: Alex Bregman ($10,400) and Jose Altuve ($9,800)

Pick yourpoison here. Both Bregman and Altuve are proven postseason performers and theypile up the extra base hits. They’re a combined 17-for-58 off Paxton, thoughAltuive has taken him deep twice in 30 AB. I’ll have exposure to one or both.

Big Spend Pivots: Aaron Judge ($8,600) or George Springer ($10,000)

Mid-range 1: Aledmys Diaz ($7,400) – He may get the start versus Paxton.

Mid-range 2: Gleyber Torres ($7,600) – The price hasn’t caught up to his tear at the dish.

Value 1: Brett Gardner ($7,000) – Fierce ABs and plenty of upside.

Value 2: Gio Urshela ($5,600) – Another talented player who’s often under the radar.

GPP punts: Martin Maldonado ($4,000)

Sample 10/13 DFS DK Showdown Lineup

CPT (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($9,600)

UTIL – J.Altuve

UTIL – DJ LeMahieu

UTIL – J.Paxton

UTIL – G.Torres

UTIL – M. Maldonado

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5 years ago 0 comment

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