Gems

Before the NBA playoffs begin, we have two matchups in each conference that will see the 7-10 seeds battle it out in a tournament style affair to get the final two playoff positions in each respective conference. Introduced this year, the NBA play-in tournament will feature some of the game’s biggest stars: LeBron James and Steph Curry highlight the Western Conference matchups, while Russell Westbrook, Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis, and LaMelo Ball will all attempt to carry their squads to a playoff position in the Eastern Conference.

Rather than attempting to explain the bracket, below is a picture illustrated to demonstrate how the inaugural play-in tournament will work:

NBA Play-In Tournament: Eastern Conference

(#7) Boston Celtics vs (#8) Washington Wizards

Although this is the second game of the night, it is the one to watch in the Eastern Conference. Both the Celtics and Wizards have had roller coasters of seasons, but only the latter comes into the Play-In round playing good basketball. With the Wizards kicking off their NBA campaign with a 3-12 record, questions quickly began to arise in the media:

“When will Bradley Beal be traded?”

“Is Westbrook really going to work out in D.C.?”

“What will Scott Brooks’ future hold?”

Then, things quickly changed: Bradley Beal became one of the best scorers in the NBA, Russell Westbrook had his best season statistically since his MVP campaign in 2016-2017, and the Washington Wizards concluded the season as the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, finishing on a 17-6 run behind the play of their all-star backcourt.

However, things were not alike for the Boston Celtics. After starting their season with a 7-3 record, Boston got hit with a COVID outbreak that led to the majority of their roster missing significant time; the Celtics were spiralling without the all-star tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, quickly falling out of playoff contention. A four-game win streak to end February and another six-game winning streak in April propelled them to a playoff spot in the weaker of the two conferences, but the Celtics come into the Play-In round limping, to say the least – having lost 5 of their last 6 to end the season, they also have a plethora of injuries, including losing Jaylen Brown for the rest of the season.

I will have a lot invested in this game from both a DFS and sports betting perspective – and you will too – you just don’t know it yet: the ultimate decision on Tuesday’s NBA slate is whether you are playing Russell Westbrook or not. Ultimately, it all comes down to your lineup construction. Sitting as the highest priced player on both sites, Russell Westbrook ($13,000 FD / $12,400 DK) will drastically shift the NBA DFS slate; is the field likely to lock him in and take a deep dive for some value plays that may or may not exist? Remember, this is the NBA playoffs we’re talking about, not a regular slate in March with over 50 players listed as questionable or doubtful; teams will shorten their rotation, and those that are the difference makers, often priced as the most expensive on a given NBA slate, will have the ball a lot and be playing a ton of minutes. Of course, the second player of interest on the Washington side of this game is no slouch and is none other than Bradley Beal, who was one of the best scorers in the league this season and would have won the scoring title if not for an outstanding run to close out the season by the greatest shooter in NBA history, Steph Curry. Averaging 31.3 PPG this season, Beal averaged 40.7 PPG in three games against the Celtics this season, where he sported a 40.2% usage rate while logging 36.9 MPG alongside Russell Westbrook in all three contests, but the former is nursing a hamstring injury that is cause for concern considering how long it’s been lingering now. After opening the last game shooting 2-for-11 from the field, Beal poured in 20 points in the second half on 6-for-16 shooting. While Beal’s statistics against the Celtics are impressive in three meetings this season, the last time these two teams played was February 28th, so we cannot look too much into previous statistics, but they do tell a story, nonetheless, while the present certainly favors the underdog in this one.

As previously mentioned, the Celtics come limping into the Play-In round having lost five of their last six and ten of their last fifteen. While the absence of Jaylen Brown is certainly a major blow to their lineup, they still have savvy veterans in Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker to pick up the slack on offense, in addition to Marcus Smart. The fact that they traded away all their big men – with the exception of Tristan Thompson and an injured Robert Williams – bodes well for Washington’s smaller lineup. Expect both teams to shorten the bench early and for Washington to utilize a combination of Alex Len, Robin Lopez, and Daniel Gafford at the ‘5’, but do not be surprised when they roll out a combination of Bertans-Hachimura-Smith to join Westbrook and Beal since the smaller Celtics frontcourt allows them to do so, similarly how they did last game against Charlotte.

Let’s not sugar coat this one bit: Boston will only go as far as Jayson Tatum can take them. Sure, the trio of Walker/Fournier/Smart can step up and knock down some shots while also stifling teams on the defensive end – but that’s a lot of if’s, and’s, and but’s. Rather than trying to evaluate the unknown, I’ll shift my focus to the known and that is what I stated previously: Boston will only go as far as Tatum takes them. Leading the team in usage rate (30.8%), minutes per game (35.8) and points per game (26.4), Tatum will be a hot commodity on this NBA DFS slate, sitting at $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,800 on DraftKings.

Ultimately, our exposure to this game is crucial – whether you realize it or not. Considering there are only two games on this slate, you will obviously have exposure to both, but what I mean when I’m explaining how important this game is surrounds Russell Westbrook: are you playing him or fading him? Either way, you’re invested in this one; playing Westbrook means you have to take a deeper dive for value plays that may or may not exist, while also hoping he leads the slate in scoring. However, fading him means you are likely not rostering the highest scoring player on the slate – can you stomach that when there are only two games? Some will ask if the Wizards take advantage of an injury-riddled Celtics team and have their backcourt duo lead them to the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference and a first round duel with the Brooklyn Nets. Truthfully speaking, this game is not as easy as the public is making it out to be. The trio of Walker/Fournier/Smart can certainly stifle the Washington backcourt, but I’m riding with the hottest duo in the NBA this season – yes, I said what I said.

The Pick: (#8) Washington Wizards

(#9) Indiana Pacers vs (#10) Charlotte Hornets

The game that tips off the NBA Play-In round is far from electric on paper, but it will certainly feature a fast-paced game environment with some of the league’s most underappreciated stars. Since the NBA All-Star break, Indiana has been playing at one of the league’s fastest paces while also lacking in defensive efficiency thanks for the absence of their best defensive player, Myles Turner, from the lineup since April 18th. On the flipside, Charlotte has been battling their fair share of injuries this season and have rarely had the majority of their rotation together for a single game. They can use all the help they can get, having lost six of their last seven entering tonight, and a matchup versus an Indiana team that will already be missing Myles Turner, TJ Warren, and Jeremy Lamb is certainly a start.

Indiana has had quite the roller coaster of a season thus far; what started off with much promise got quickly derailed when last year’s star of the NBA bubble, TJ Warren, underwent foot surgery after only having played four games. Injuries to almost every player on the roster certainly did not help the Pacers along the way, but the acquisition of Caris LeVert has proven to be fruitful for the #9 seed in the Eastern Conference; LeVert played in 35 games for Indiana, sporting a 27.9% usage rate while chipping in 20.7 PPG in 32.9 MPG. Alongside Domantas Sabonis, who averaged 23/14.1/10.7 in May, LeVert can certainly shoulder the load on offensive should Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) miss this one, but do not overlook the presence of Oshae Brissett ($5,700 FD / $5,400 DK) and Justin Holiday ($5,000 FD / $4,500 DK) who have been trusted to play crucial minutes down the stretch for the Pacers. Both players have shown flashes of upside in DFS, and despite Sabonis being healthy and running both ends of the floor for Indiana, the Pacers present better value plays than any other team, at the time of writing, while also having elite options at every position in Malcolm Brogdon or TJ McConnell, Caris LeVert, and Domantas Sabonis.

Going from one of the slowest teams in the NBA to one that plays with flare on the offensive side of the ball with highlight reel passes and dunks that will get you to your feet, Charlotte has now entered the Play-In tournament as the 10 seed behind the play of its young core. Beginning with the most experienced player on the roster, Terry Rozier will continue to log heavy minutes for the Hornets in what should be an 8-man rotation for Coach James Borrego featuring the former Boston Celtic alongside LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Jalen McDaniels, PJ Washington, Devonte’ Graham, Cody Zeller, and Malik Monk. What the Hornets make up for in offensive flare, they lack on the defensive side of the ball; they simply do not overpower teams on the offensive end enough to justify their lackluster defense, which will be a cause for concern tonight against both Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert, let alone if Malcolm Brogdon returns to action.

We’re into the best time of the NBA season and every game is hard to handicap, but I’ll side with the most underrated player in the NBA and the Pacers; Domantas Sabonis will prove to be too much for the combination of PJ Washington and Cody Zeller, while Caris LeVert, Justin Holiday, and Oshae Brissett all provide solid help to their all-star teammate. There is a ton of value to be had on this Pacers side for tonight’s DFS slate, so make sure to check our proprietary projection model to see who our main targets are, in addition to some fliers.

The Pick: (#9) Indiana Pacers

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

NBA Play-In Tournament: Western Conference (Coming on 05/19)

(#7) Los Angeles Lakers vs (#8) Golden State Warriors

(#9) Memphis Grizzlies vs (#10) San Antonio Spurs