Gems

Another large NBA slate waits for us before a small one on Sunday, so today is going to be interesting considering the circumstances: there are a ton of teams on the second legs of back-to-backs, while some key names make their returns from the IR. It’s a Saturday edition of the Gems –  let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,900 DK / $10,500 FD)

With fewer studs on tonight’s NBA slate than yesterday’s, it’s hard to ignore what the frontrunner for MVP brings to our DFS lineups. Sporting a 34.8% usage rate through five games this season, Curry has dropped a 30.4/8/6.6 scoring line on 42% shooting, taking 22 FGA per night, including a whopping 13 3PA per contest, where he’s shooting 38.5% from the field. His rebounding numbers have simply been stellar, to say the least, and his scoring upside is as high as anyone in this league, making him a priority if spending up tonight.

Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD)

If you were tuned into the NBA live stream yesterday, you’d be happy to know we avoided a very chalky FVV, who posted a mediocre 30 DK points at an $8,100 price tag. However, on the flipside of a back-to-back, with the field likely shying away from the Raptors point guard, my interest is piqued. Sporting a 22.2% usage rate for the Raptors, which is far from the high-octane offense it was during its Championship run, FVV’s minute upside is right up there with the likes of Julius Randle, Domantas Sabonis, and others; look for coach Nick Nurse to rely on “Steady Freddy” tonight versus an Indiana Pacers team that is also on the second half of a back-to-back.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

Finding his groove over the last three games for the OKC Thunder, SGA will surely be one of the most popular options on tonight’s NBA slate. Since his first two disastrous outings to open the new season, SGA has since posted a 28.7/5.3/5.7 scoring line, with a 29.3% usage rate, while shooting 47.4% from the field. Against a Warriors defense that he just put up 30 points against, he’s a premier target for our cash games.

Honorable Mentions:

• Ja Morant ($9,400 DK / $10,100 FD)
• Dejounte Murray ($8,500 DK / $8,600 FD)
• Kemba Walker ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,700 DK / $8,100 FD)

With the undefeated Utah Jazz taking on the 4-1 Chicago Bulls without Mike Conley, there is one particular SG I will be locking in at the time of writing, while using one of the three mentioned names below to pair him with; many of the guard targets listed are multi-positional eligible, so I’ll be condensing the position while also referring to the projection model for value. In the absence of Conley last season, Mitchell had a 34.9% usage rate, while posting a whopping 30.5 PPG on 46.9% shooting, leading his team in FGA per night. A massive boost will also go to Jordan Clarkson off the bench, and one needs to be in your NBA lineup tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Chris Duarte ($5,600 DK / $5,500 FD)
• Jordan Clarkson ($5,400 DK / $5,300 FD)
• De’Anthony Melton ($5,400 DK / $5,700 FD)

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler ($8,600 DK / $9,500 FD)

When a player is on the run that Jimmy Butler is on right now, it’s hard not to take notice. While the stat sheet has been filled for the past three games in Miami for Jimmy Buckets, there’s no denying the most important factor which makes it another possibility for him to have yet another productive night: this pace up is massive for a Heat lineup that can really keep up with Memphis. On the second night of a back-to-back, they may come out sluggish, but Butler’s 29.3% usage rate and 28.3/9/4.7 scoring line over that span has led Miami to a 3-0 stretch, making him the premier play at a thin SF position for tonight’s NBA slate.

Khris Middleton ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)

It takes a lot for me to write up Khris Middleton, but the Bucks are that shorthanded tonight. Missing Jrue holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez means that both Middleton and Antetokounmpo will get all the volume they can handle on the offensive end, where Middleton flourished with usage rates near 33% in each of these scenarios thus far in the past week. With the Spurs having their best defenders on the perimeter and in the paint, Middleton will be able to do work on the wing all night long and will be a GPP target of mine should his ownership remain in check on tonight’s NBA slate.

Scottie Barnes ($6,000 DK / $6,200 FD)

Logging 35 MPG in your rookie season is no joke, but Scottie Barnes has done everything in his power to make the most of it and to take more responsibility with Pascal Siakam nursing an injury on the sidelines. Averaging 17.7/8.3 on 55.6% shooting, Barnes is certainly a safe-floor player for cash games, but also gives us enough upside on this NBA slate considering the Raptors are on the second half of a back-to-back, facing a Pacers team riddled with injuries.

Honorable Mentions:

• Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DK / $8,200 FD)
• Desmond Bane ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD)
• Josh Giddey ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

Power Forwards

Honorable Mentions:

• Evan Mobley ($6,700 DK / $6,600 FD)
• Kelly Olynyk ($5,600 DK / $5,500 FD)
• Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD)

Centers

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900 DK / $10,800 FD)
• Joel Embiid ($10,200 DK / $9,800 FD)
• Jonas Valaciunas ($8,100 DK / $8,300 FD)

Honorable Mentions

• Rudy Gobert ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD)
• Precious Achiuwa ($5,100 DK / $5,100 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life