DFSGhost 
An odd NBA slate yesterday with only 5 games on tap that featured few pace up spots and poor defensive teams is now behind us, and tonight’s 10-gamer gives us a much larger player pool to work with. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Trae Young ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
It’s a no-brainer to have the face of the Atlanta Hawks franchise at the top of our priority list tonight. Finishing third in the NBA in assist rate last season at 42.6%, Trae Young has already dazzled us with 30 assists in three games, where the Hawks are 2-1 after last season’s trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Sporting a 31.6% usage rate in the early stages of the year, Young gets a Pelicans backcourt that looks to be decimated on the defensive side of the ball since the loss of Lonzo Ball this offseason, where the one true point guard they’ve faced has been none other than Ball himself, their former point guard, who dropped a 17/10/10 triple-double on them.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
Sporting a 28% usage rate on the year for the Pacers, the duo of Sabonis and Brogdon look to be in for a heavy dose of minutes this NBA season, where the latter is already averaging a whopping 40.8 across the season’s first four games. Averaging 24.8/7.5/7.5 while shooting 42.7% from the floor, Brogdon will have his way with a Toronto backcourt that lost not only the heart and soul of their franchise in Kyle Lowry, but also their best defender.
De’Anthony Melton ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
Lather, rinse, repeat. De’Anthony Melton’s price remains too low for his role in this Grizzlies offense as long as Dillon Brooks remains on the sideline, who is still out for tonight’s game against the Trail Blazers. While their opponent has started slow out of the gate to say the least, Memphis will be forced to have their foot on the throttle against a Portland offense that can turn up at any time. Enter Melton, who has been wildly efficient across his 30.7 MPG, averaging 18.3 PPG on 52.4% shooting and 57.9% from deep, and gets a phenomenal matchup against a defense that ranks 28th in the NBA against opposing shooting guards that also gave up 13.1 3PM to opposing shooters last season.
Honorable Mentions:
- Ja Morant ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD)
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,600 DK / $8,300 FD)
- Chris Paul ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD)
Shooting Guards
Jaylen Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
Logging just over 37 MPG for the Celtics, Jaylen Brown has come out firing on all cylinders, to the tune of 28.3 PPG, including 46-point and 30-point outings through his 31% usage rate. While the game against Toronto was ugly, Brown’s shot was off that night and the Celtics got blown off the court in a 32-point loss, so I’m expecting another close one like their games against Charlotte and New York. What is surprising about Boston this season is that they sit 10th in the NBA in pace of play after finishing 20th just a year ago. They’re playing faster, and this only bodes well for the duo of Brown and Tatum, who get a Washington defense that consistently ranks in the bottom 5 in efficiency and top 5 in pace of play.
CJ McCollum ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD)
I can’t trust the Portland offense right now, but it sure is hard to ignore CJ McCollum at this price in a pristine matchup against Memphis. While Damian Lillard has been struggling mightily in the first few games for his squad, McCollum has shouldered the load with a 30.2% usage rate, averaging 27.3 PPG while shooting a tremendous 52.3% from the field and 48.5% from deep on an impressive 11 3PA per contest. It’s an ugly looking offense thus far, but that doesn’t change the fact that it remains as one of the best in the NBA on paper, and if there’s ever a matchup set for them to explode, it’s tonight.
Chris Duarte ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD)
Logging some serious minutes at the beginning of his freshman campaign, Chris Duarte is in just as good of a spot as Malcolm Brogdon for a fraction of the price. While Caris LeVert and TJ Warren continue to recover from long-term injuries, it’s been the rookie out of Oregon who has been a greater contributor to his team over veterans such as Jeremy Lamb. Averaging 19.3 PPG while logging 38.3 MPG across the Pacers’ first four outings, tonight’s game against the Raptors will be a high-scoring one and one of the best on the NBA slate; I want to ensure I have exposure to it in some fashion.
Honorable Mentions
- Bradley Beal ($9,200 DK / $8,700 FD)
- Anthony Edwards ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
- Value Spot
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($10,500 DK / $11,000 FD)
While James Harden versus Kyle Lowry is no slouch of a matchup on the perimeter, all eyes will be on Kevin Durant lining up on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. By no means is this a good matchup for either side on paper, but I’ll side with the offensive dynamo and one of the best all-around scorers of all-time, let alone of his generation; Durant has carried the Nets thus far with a 33.2% usage rate and a 31/9.8/5.8 scoring line while shooting 55.8% from the field. On an NBA slate filled with star power, there is no greater upside than a low rostered Kevin Durant.
Paul George ($10,300 DK / $10,500 FD)
PG13 will be featured in these articles nearly every time he takes the floor, so you might as well get used to it. No player carries the sheer volume and offensive responsibility that George does on a nightly basis, being with fellow All-NBA talent, Kawhi Leonard. While this game might not jump off to some on paper, it certainly warrants appeal, with the Cavaliers looking tremendously talented on offense behind their young frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. George will be needed to shoulder the load once again, which he has this season with a 32.4% usage rate and a 28/7/5 scoring line on 51.6% shooting, while taking 21.6 FGA per contest.
Miles Bridges ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD)
With PJ Washington already ruled out for the Charlotte Hornets tonight, there is no reason to gawk at Miles Bridges’ price with how he’s performed this season. Despite only carrying a 23.9% usage rate into their matchup versus the Orlando Magic, Bridges has posted a career-high 25 PPG across 35.3 MPG for the Hornets thus far, having scored 36 or more DK points in each one of his first four games this NBA season. With 7+ rebounds in each contest thus far, his floor is high, while also providing us a high ceiling, as seen with 30, 32, and 25 raw points in his past three games.
Honorable Mentions:
- Jayson Tatum ($9,100 DK / $9,400 FD)
- OG Anunoby ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)
- Desmond Bane ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800 DK / $11,200 FD)
The defending NBA Champions have been through their share of injuries and short rotations, and it’s only the second week of the season. Being without Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday, and Bobby Portis, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where a league MVP gets better, but Giannis does; a 34.4% usage rate doesn’t do him justice when it comes to the value he brings to his team on both ends of the floor, neither does his 24.5/10.5/6.5 scoring line, but the former NBA MVP’s ceiling is as high as anyone whenever he takes the floor, and just like every other night this season, the Bucks need him to be their savior.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,900 DK / $9,600 FD)
Just as I indicated in the Brogdon blurb, Sabonis is in for big minutes all season long, and is already logging a over 40 per night while averaging a 24.8/12.3/4.5 scoring line on 62.9% shooting. With the Raptors being this small in the front court, he’s the main piece of a pace up spot game environment that I want on this NBA slate.
Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK / $6,400 FD)
With first overall pick Cade Cunningham still on the sidelines for the Detroit Pistons, Evan Mobley has had the biggest impact out of this year’s draft class. Logging 33 MPG in a crowded Cavaliers front court is no small feat, especially with established veterans such as Kevin Love behind him, yet the Mobley/Allen connection gives this Cleveland team extreme promise for their future; the USC product has been dominant on both ends of the floor and on the glass with a 14.3/8.8 double-double average, but it’s his 1.3 SPG and 2 BPG that really stands out in his debut campaign. With the Clippers falling from 5th in the NBA in rebounding percentage to 26th this season, Mobley has the matchup and upside I want out of the midrange on tonight’s slate.
Honorable Mentions:
- John Collins ($6,300 DK / $6,400 FD)
- Lauri Markkanen ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
- Franz Wagner ($4,800 DK / $4,700 FD)
Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100 DK / $10,900 FD)
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,200 DK / $7,500 FD)
Steven Adams ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD)
Honorable Mentions
- Jarrett Allen ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD)
- Mo Bamba ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD)
- Richaun Holmes ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD)
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
