With games spread all throughout the day, we’re going to try to give you guys from every slate. That way, whatever sort of player you are, you can play on whatever slate suits you best. It will make weather tough to figure out though, and the cities/teams we need to key in on are New York, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland, Boston and Baltimore. So, let’s get into our 8/7 DFS Hitting plays!
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DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)
I don’t like to tout myself but every time I recommend Kelly, he seems to homer. It’s easy to see why when you look at his splits, with Kelly providing a .383 AVG, .471 OBP, .767 SLG and 1.238 OPS against left-handers so far this season. That’s why he’ll always find his way into my articles when he gets the platoon advantage in his favor and these are some of the most underappreciated splits in the game. Getting to face Jason Vargas is only a bonus, with the Phillies lefty posting an xFIP north of 5.00 so far this season.
DK ($4,000) FD ($3,800)
This DK price is really surprising and it’s a wonder why one of the most consistent players in baseball has seen such a drastic price drop. We’re talking about a player who’s a guarantee for 30 homers and 100 RBI every year and he’s on pace to surpass those numbers yet again this season. While this price is fantastic, we have to like this matchup too. Tyler Alexander has only thrown 22 innings in the Majors, which is scary when you consider his 4.98 ERA and 1.46 WHIP dating back to 2016 at the minors. It also puts the platoon advantage in Abreu’s favor and he’s got a .944 OPS against lefties since 2017.
DK ($4,600) FD ($3,100)
This is one of those cases where I like Hiura on one site and not another. This DraftKings price is much more indicative of the guy we’ve seen and that makes this FanDuel price an absolute bargain. We’re talking about a guy who’s generating a .299 AVG, .560 SLG and .928 OPS. That’s really no surprise when you look at his 1.095 OPS at Triple-A this season and he’s simply one of the most dangerous second basemen in the league. Getting to face Trevor Williams only adds to Hiura’s value, with him pitching to a 6.64 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over his last seven starts.
DK ($4,800) FD ($3,600)
Donaldson has returned to his MVP form as of late and it’s done wonders for the Braves. Over his last 28 games, Donaldson has 11 homers and 19 RBI en route to a .415 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.081 OPS. That’s the stud that we’ve been waiting for and that doesn’t even take into consideration that he gets to face a lefty here. For his career, Donaldson has a .571 SLG and .954 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. It happens to be a weak lefty too, with Martin Perez pitching to a 4.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season.
DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)
Machado is one of the hottest hitters in the game and he’s always tough to fade whenever he faces a left-hander. Since a series in Colorado in the middle of June, Machado is hitting .330 over his last 42 games while generating a .653 SLG and 1.027 OPS in that span. It’s really no surprise when you look at his numbers against lefties, with Machado posting a .391 AVG, .484 OBP, .823 SLG and 1.307 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. That’s obviously ridiculous production and it really makes him enticing against Yusei Kikuchi’s 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)
This dude is simply absurd and his majestic blast on Tuesday shows just how much power this kid has. We’re talking about a guy who has 13 homers and 41 RBI in just 41 games played en route to a .340 AVG. That’s really no surprise when you see his .343 AVG and 1.185 OPS at Triple-A this season and it’s clear this kid is going to be a threat for years to come. What makes him particularly scary here is this matchup, as he gets the platoon advantage against Peter Lambert and his 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
DK ($4,300) FD ($3,000)
Much like Machado, Renfroe has made minced meat of left-handers all season long. In fact, the big outfielder has a .738 SLG and 1.049 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. That’s why this club has mashed lefties all season long and Renfroe actually has an OPS north of .950 against southpaws for his career. Getting to face Kikuchi may be the best part of this play though, with the Seattle southpaw pitching to a 7.65 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last eight starts.
DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)
This is a strange play but Piscotty has been abusing left-handers all season long. In fact, Piscotty’s .952 OPS against southpaws this season is 300 points higher than his OPS against righties. That’s why he’s typically in the heart of the order under these circumstances and Jose Quintana is not really a pitcher we need to worry about. In fact, the Cubs lefty has a 4.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which are some of the worst numbers of his career.
Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts
We are talking about the league leader in strikeouts and K rate facing an offense that sits 26th in K rate, 29th in road OPS and last in road OBP. This prop should be two Ks higher than it is.
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MKF Record 23-14
This week we’ll look back at Wyndham Championship and get you ready for the upcoming Northern Trust right here on Win Daily Sports.
Unfortunately I was unable to watch the final round but what a win by JT Poston. To shoot up the scoreboard passing Byeong An for the lead and hold off the course horse in Simpson is an incredible victory.
While the Insight Sheet missed on Poston, it had a very nice run. Here is the model’s Top 10.
My personal player pool had 16 golfers, 14 made the cut (88%) and zero got caught in the MDF. It had two Top 15 and three Top 10 including Simpson. It also had sub five percent owned golfers in Henley, Svensson and Ortiz. Too much Matsuyama and Danielson, though, for any real return in DFS.
Let’s move on to the Northern Trust and the first week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs!
Course: Liberty National GC
Par: 71
Length: 7,370 Yards
Greens: Bent
Fairways: Easier to hit than tour average (Placement of the drive will be key though on several holes)
Architect: Tom Kite / Bob Cupp
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA website here!
The Northern Trust is held at the Liberty National Golf Course this year. The last time this course was played was in 2017 for the Presidents Cup. For the FedEx Cup it was in 2013 and again in 2009 (The Barclays). There have been changes between 2009 and 2013 but the winning score was -10 on average. A drastic change from this past weeks Wyndham Championship.
Lets start by looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring settings.
While some sites might say that the fairways are hard to hit, I will argue that they’re relatively easy. This course should suit all golfers, but they will be either clubbing down often or over powering the holes. This will lead to “easy” to hit fairways. The real challenge will be the ball placement off the tee. Here are the golfers that score well on courses with easy to hit fairways.
The tour comes back to Bent greens this week, after playing on Bermuda for a while. The greens should be expected to play fast at the Northern Trust. Lets look at the golfers who not only play well on Bent greens, but ones that do so when the stimp meter rises.
Out of all three of these course condition charts, only Johnson and Rose appear in each. Should be of note that Rose is ranked 94th in the field in strokes gained putting for bent/fast greens. It also demonstrates how strong the rest of his game has been in the past.
Despite the Northern Trust only being played at Liberty National a couple of times in the last decade, we can look at how players perform in this tournament itself. Here are the Top 10 golfers over the last five years who have played well at the Northern Trust / The Barclays.
Jason Day stands out among the pack as being a tournament horse with four Top 5s and a win to his name.
Recent form is always a key part to the research process. Here are the Top 10 golfers over the last six weeks.
Patrick Reed and Tony Finau are the only two golfers inside the Top 10 to show up twice. Reed and Finau both have good tournament history for the Northern Trust and recent form coming in.
Here is the scorecard for Liberty National GC and how each hole plays to par.
Looking over the scorecard, Liberty National doesn’t have a lot of any one type of hole. Out of the Par 4s, the 450 – 500 yard range has the most at five holes. The three Par 5s each show up in a different range. For this reason I’ll use Par 5 scoring overall. Opportunity Gained will always be used and this week is no different. To round out the model I’ll be looking to add scrambling, as many holes look to be a tough up and down for par.
The tour is down to the final three weeks of the main season. These fields arguably will consist of the top golfers in the world and to make things more interesting, no MDF. You’ll want to look at golfers who perform well with tough fields and ones that can mentally bounce back from a bad hole. As of this writing I like Justin Rose.
Course Setup
Average to difficult to score
Easy to hit fairways
Fast/Bent Greens
Player Efficiencies
Opportunities gained
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Scrambling
Par 5 scoring
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my model’s Top 50 with Data Golf World Rankings, Vegas Odds, Key Stats and analysis on my personal player pool.
Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.
Stats source: FantasyNational
Ya, hear that? The sounds of shoulder pads hitting against each other? How about the smell of sweat? These are the tell-tale signs that NFL season is coming. Some teams got their training camps started last week, with the veterans and the remaining teams getting starting this week. For them, it means back on the #footballgrind, but for us, DFS degenerates, it means the action is back! Have you ever played NFL Preseason DFS? Well, if you are new to the game this is the perfect introductory article to learn more about the approach.
In my previous pieces on Win Daily, I have referenced how roster construction is more important than actually playing the best players. I have also highlighted the importance of opportunity when playing regular-season NFL Preseason DFS. But here’s the paradigm when it comes to NFL preseason DFS; It’s all about who is playing in the games. It has nothing to do with hammering down player values. This is because on both DraftKings and FanDuel players are virtually priced the same across the board. Choosing the correct players can be quite challenging considering that teams can have up to 90-man rosters at the beginning of training camp.
However, it does not matter how good they are or what team they play for. Snaps, opportunities, and attempts are the key factors to taking home cash from an NFL preseason DFS slate. 10-12 touches from a scrub are better than one to two touches from an elite player. Often times information is announced very close to kickoff. It is unlike the standard in the regular season, where teams are required to list who is active or inactive. In the preseason this is not required.
If you are to succeed at NFL Preseason DFS, you have to be able to submit your lineups and pivot just minutes before they lock.
The best way to look for the most up to date news on terms of players being active or seeing a lot of usages might seem obvious, but it comes down to using Twitter. Keep smashing that refresh button. Fellow fantasy football analyst Geoff Lambert of GoingFor2.com has actually created a unique list that you can subscribe here that is filled with NFL Beat Writers that you need to follow for NFL Preseason DFS. John Paulsen of 4for4.com also has a great list of beat writers that can be a useful source of news.
Per an example as of July 22, 2019 news broke that Bears running back David Montgomery is going to see plenty of carries in the preseason via head coach Matt Nagy. These are the types of news blurbs that you need to follow to be successful in this format of DFS. I will continue to keep my content as up to date myself, whether it be on my own personal Twitter or through the preview articles throughout the preseason.
For the most part during the preseason teams in the first week usually, have the first-team unit play one series if they play at all. So starters can be easily eliminated as options in Week 1 of the preseason. Then the second team finishes out the first half, with the third and fourth teams completing the second half of the game. But this pattern changes throughout the preseason. In Week 2 you might see one or two more series or one quarter from the starters, which is just less time for the backups.
Then in Week 3 starters usually play for the first-half, followed by Week 4 where they probably will not play at all. This is the game that will heavily highlight third and fourth stringers or players that teams might be trying to “show off” to generate trade bait or roster spots elsewhere.
It’s also worth noting looking at the history of player performances/usage in the preseason from a coaching and player production standpoint. For example, we know that Sean McVay will not play any of his starters in the preseason, especially a guy like Todd Gurley and that hurts the offense overall for the preseason.
Last year the Rams ranked last in preseason yards per game (196). Starters Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Gerald Everett, and Tyler Higbee saw little to no playing time. The fourth and fifth string running backs from last season, John Kelly and Nick Holley, led the teams in rushing attempts. Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen were the two backup quarterbacks that played the majority of snaps. Projecting it forward you would assume that the Rams will most likely use Blake Bortles a lot in the preseason, while Allen competes with former Alliance of American Football quarterback John Wolford. It’s very important to have at least some familiarity or background on the player you are starting in your DFS lineup.
There are times that DraftKings and FanDuel will list players that are not even on the teams anymore! Fortunately as a tool to combat this utilize Ourlads.com that features unofficial depth charts. Again, Geoff Lambert has been at NFL preseason DFS for years now. Geoff also makes a great point that fading hyped-up rookies early on in favor of backups with five years of NFL experience is the better approach, especially early on in the preseason. So Mike Davis over David Montgomery Week 1 of the preseason? But realistically, the most valuable piece of your lineup needs to be your defense.
Defenses are great in the preseason because of the fact that you do not need to project playing time or opportunity with them.
The preseason also features much less scoring in comparison to the regular season. Looking at last preseason via FantasyLabs.com during Week 1, not one game had an under/over above 37. Compare that to the regular season where each game had an under/over at least at 41.
Play GPPs. We all know the amount of variance that exists in regular-season NFL DFS, so just imagine it increasing by tenfold. According to FantasyLabs on the Action Network here are few nuggets that should keep your bankroll in the tournaments.
Jason Mezrahi and Matt Striker discuss the Main MLB DFS Slate on the 8/6 MLB DFS Podcast. This is a schedule that has a lot of interesting pitching picks.
When you’re done listening to our 8/6 MLB DFS Podcast, please check out our premium weather blog to stay up to date. The game in Coors Field disappointed on Monday night. So what do the daily fantasy baseball experts advise to do tonight? They say stack it up and ignore the recency bias. But there are also some salary savers to consider so you can get the money for pitching if you want to fade the pack.
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Thank you for listening to the MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
Scott Engel and our DFS/Weather Expert break down the main slate on the 8/5 MLB DFS Podcast. This is not a great day for pitching values so we ind stacks and bats that allow you spend for top SPs. We help you build the right lineups on the 8/5 MLB DFS Podcast.
If you go with value bats from the Braves and Orioles, you may have room to spend for Charlie Morton or Luis Castillo. Or, as Scott points out, you can opt for Mike Soroka. Yes, he is facing the Twins, but he has been effective against nearly everyone he has faced this season.
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Thank you for listening to the 8/5 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
It is not easy to find the most optimum 8/5 MLB DFS Stack. Thereare a handful of seemingly inexperienced and vulnerable pitchers to target onthe slate, but batters are always in danger of not faring as well as hoped whenthey have not seen much of a starter before. Plus, some of the better hittingteams don’t always make it easy for us to build stacks with them because ofseveral top hitters being priced very high. Despite those challenges, we’rehere to identify the best teams to stack for Monday.
Top 8/5 MLB DFS Stack: Atlanta Braves: Jake Odorizzi settled down in his last start, but that was because he faced Miami. Atlanta is fifth in MLB team batting over the past week and that’s good enough to attack Odorizzi with. Adam Duvall pinpoints here at $4200 as he is hitting .385 with four homers and six RBI over the past week. Ozzie Albies ($4300) is hitting .300 over the past week. Josh Donaldson is just $4200 and has five RBI in the past week. Freddie Freeman can easily fit into this 8/5 MLB DFS Stack at $4900 to cap it all off.
Boston Red Sox 8/5 MLB DFS Stack: Mike Montgomery has been hit hard in two of his past three starts. The Red Sox have a good opportunity to bounce back from a sweep by the Yankees here. Start building your 8/5 MLB DFS stack with J.D. Martinez ($5,100 on DraftKings) and Xander Bogaerts will be worth the $5300 tag. Then fit in Christian Vazquez at $4200 and you can get Michael Chavis for $4,300. Martinez is hitting .391 over the past week with two homers and four RBI. Vazquez is hitting .316 during that span. Bogaerts has cooled off lately so you can consider Mookie Betts as your other top anchor at $5500.
Baltimore Orioles 8/5 MLB DFS Stack: This is not as crazy as it may seem as an 8/5 MLB DFS Stack when you consider Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 32 runs in his last six starts, allowing four or more in four of them and five or more in three. Trey Mancini has nine RBI over the past week and leads the way here at $4900. Renato Nunez has been cold over the past week but can rebound and has to be in any Orioles build at $4300. Hanser Alberto is hitting .333 in the past week and can be a salary saver at $3,800. Jonathan Villar also deserves strong consideration at $4700 as does Anthony Santander at $4,600. The prices here are friendly enough that you can possibly fully stack from this game, building a Yankees mini-stack around your Orioles core..
Mini Stack: New York Yankees: We would love to build a four-man 8/5 MLB DFS stack here, but most of the prices of the top hitters are near or above $5,000. Still, against Gabriel Ynoa you have to go for Aaron Judge at $4,600 and get one more Yankees bat in there for good measure. Mike Tauchman and Brett Gardner give you platoon splits and exposure for under $5,000. If you can find a creative way to get four top Yankee bats in a lineup, they should be your prime stack, but the pitching outlook for value plays is not too good tonight, especially on a two-pitcher site.
For our 8/5 DFS Hitting Picks, we got some great options for you. We actually have a large 12-game slate, which is pretty surprising for a Monday. That is the ideal amount of games for DFS. though, and it should make for a fun slate.
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DK ($4,200) FD ($3,000)
Picking catchers is always tough but Grandal is always one of the safest options on the board. That’s clear by his .373 OBP, .481 SLG and .854 OPS. Not only are those all career-highs for Grandal, they also happen to be some of the best numbers at the catcher position. We have to like him against Dario Agrazal, whose 6.21 xFIP is one of the worst marks in the game. It also puts Grandal on the left side, with the switch-hitter posting a .490 SLG and .854 OPS against righties since last season.
DK ($3,900) FD ($3,100)
Choi is quietly one of the best values in DFS right now and it’s time for these sites to take notice of his stellar play. What’s really changed things for him is the move to the leadoff spot, with Choi batting leadoff in four-straight games against righties. It’s led to one of his best stretches of his season too, with Choi hitting .500 in that span while collecting three doubles, six runs scored and six RBI. That’s no surprise when you consider his splits, with Choi generating a .376 OBP and .878 OPS against right-handers since 2017.
DK ($4,900) FD ($3,200)
I’ve had some great luck in recommending this guy and it’s easy to see why when looking at his recent numbers. Over his last 14 games, Odor has accrued three doubles, seven homers, 12 runs scored and 14 RBI en route to a 1.163 OPS. That’s the dude that we’ve been waiting for and he’s always one of the streakiest players in our game. The matchup against Aaron Civale is nice too, as it puts the platoon advantage in Odor’s favor versus a pitcher who’s only made one appearance at this level.
DK ($4,800) FD ($3,700)
Much like Odor, Ramirez is one of the hottest hitters in the league. Over his last 27 games, Ramrez is hitting .313 while providing 22 runs scored, 11 doubles, nine homers and 27 RBI en route to a .988 OPS. That’s the stud that we’ve been waiting for and it’s scary that he’s one of the league leaders with 22 steals as well. The icing on the cake is this matchup against Ariel Jurado though, who’s pitching to a 6.70 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last nine starts. It also puts Ramirez on the left side, with the switch-hitter posting an OPS north of .900 against righties since 2017.
DK ($4,700) FD ($3,300)
Villar is a regular in my articles and recent results would indicate that we’ve been all over this guy. The 14 homers and 24 steals tells you everything you need to know, as that alone makes this price hard to understand. Any leadoff hitter with that power-speed combo is worth using in this price range, especially with his recent form. Over his last nine games. Villar has collected two doubles, three homers, 12 runs scored and seven steals en route to a .455 OBP and 1.121 OPS. That’s absurd production and it’s really no surprise that most of it has come against righties. So far this season, Villar has a .346 OBP and .765 OPS against right-handers while swiping 19 of his 23 steals. That’s huge against Masahiro Tanaka, who’s got an unsightly 10.59 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his last six starts.
DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)
Martinez is starting to get hot and that’s scary from a guy who’s already one of the best hitters in our game. Over his last 15 games, J.D. is hitting .374 while providing a .464 OBP, .729 SLG and 1.193 OPS. That’s the stud that we were expecting and his .584 xSLG and .408 xwOBA would indicate that this streak will only continue. What really adds to his intrigue is this matchup, with Martinez posting a .455 OBP, .887 SLG and 1.341 OPS against left-handers this season. It happens to be a southpaw we want to exploit, with Mike Montgomery pitching to a 6.34 ERA and 1.77 WHIP this season.
DK ($4,600) FD ($4,100)
While I don’t really like this FanDuel price, it’s pretty hard to fade Judge on DraftKings at $4,600. That price is absurd for someone so talented and the hitting profile is still there. While he’s been struggling recently, this masher is still generating a .545 xSLG, .405 xwOBA and 97.8 exit velocity. That exit velocity happens to be the best mark in baseball and it’s just a matter of time before his numbers start turning around. A matchup against the Orioles is a great way to start the rebound, with Baltimore sitting dead-last in ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed.
DK ($3,400) FD ($2,900)
Jimenez is going to be one of the best power hitters in the league in coming years and we have to capitalize on this price. I truly believe that he’ll be $1,000 more on each site come this time next season and it’s really no surprise when you look at his power potential. A .220 ISO speaks for itself, as that’s pretty much on par with the power stud that we saw in the minors. While Jimenez is struggling in his first few games off of the IL, we’re talking about a guy who had 11 homers in his 28 games before going on the IL. That power potential is especially tough to fade in a matchup like this, with Detroit sending out Drew VerHagen and his 11.66 ERA and 2.80 WHIP. We can’t fade a guy with so much upside in such a premium matchup at a price like this!
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Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts
After another winner in our last article, let’s go back to the well with the K props. What makes this prop crazy is that Giolito has recorded at least four Ks in all 21 of his starts this season. He’s done that to the tune of a 30 percent K rate and gets to face a Tigers offense that ranks bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, xwOBA and K rate. I’m going to go bold and say he clears this prop in just four innings.
I’ll also be keeping track of my MKF picks from here on out so that you have a better idea of what I’m bringing to the table. I can only tack back to June but here’s where we are since. Record 22-14
Jason Mezrahi and our DFS/Weather Expert break down the main slate on the 8/4 MLB DFS Podcast. There are many interesting pitching choices to help make room for Twins or Astros bats. We help you build the right lineups on the 8/4 MLB DFS Podcast.
Justin Verlander is at the top of list in a dream matchup vs Seattle but he will be pricey. But there are some good value selections on the board for salary saving. Yonny Chirinos and Drew Smyly could be the two look too so make sure to listen below the expert podcast.
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Thank you for listening to the 8/4 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
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