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Daily Fantasy Golf

Insight Sheet: Northern Trust (FedEx Cup Playoffs)

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock with all of your DFS PGA needs. This week at the The Northern Trust, you’ll find the model’s Top 50, Vegas odds, Data Golf World Ranks, key stats and my personal player pool. Player picks and the model use DraftKings pricing. It should be noted, golfers are picked as an overall play and should be used for all DFS sites.

Players ranked 1 – 25 overall
Players ranked 26 – 50 overall

Personal Player Pool for the Northern Trust

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Dustin Johnson $10,700 – This is a coin flip between Johnson and Koepka really. Johnson is rated Top 10 in almost every major category. The main stat that holds him back is his short game. If Johnson can get his wedges and putter going, watch out world.
Exposure – 24%

Brooks Koepka $12,000 – Speaking of Koepka, he checks in at number two technically. He has the same strengths and weaknesses as Johnson except for his approaches. The real differences are he’s the Vegas favorite (8/1) and he a better DraftKings points scorer.
Exposure – 19%

Players priced between $9,000 and $9,900

Patrick Cantlay $9,200 – Cantlay checks in at number two in my model this week. He will be the most popular play this weekend. Fits this course as well as any of the 10K guys but at a decent discount. Don’t let the ownership push you off of Cantlay though, pivot elsewhere.
Exposure – 33%

Rickie Fowler $9,300 – Fowler has been “struggling” coming into the FedEx Cup Playoffs but his game should translate over well. Number four in my model, I hope his lack of quality finishes keeps his ownership down.
Exposure – 29%

Webb Simpson $9,400 – Simpson might be the hottest golfer coming into the Northern Trust. Coming off of back to back second place finishes, Simpson should see his game continue to surge.
Exposure – 33%

Justin Rose $9600 – Rose has really been getting talked up this week and his 20% ownership projection was surprising. Don’t mistake this surprise as he shouldn’t belong, just the opposite. He is Top 20 in stroked gained total over the last five years in the tournament. In 2013 he also had a second place finish at Liberty National. 
Exposure – 29%

Players priced between $8,000 and $8,900

Bryson DeChambeau $8,600 – Last year’s winner has not had the greatest year as of late. After a bad stretch in the early part of the year, DeChambeau seemed to turn it on last month with a second place finish at the 3M Open. With a missed cut and T48th after thereafter it seemed like he lost it again. With that said DeChambeau is number one in my model and will be one of my highest owned golfers this week.
Exposure – 48%

Hideki Matsuyama $8,400 – Matsuyama is really a value play for me at this price range. He has two Top 15 finishes in his last four FedEx playoff appearances in this tournament. Matsuyama also two missed cuts in that same span. Number three overall in my model. I’ll take a chance on a cheap and low owned Matsuyama.
Exposure – 38%

Collin Morikawa $8,500 – In his last seven starts, Morikawa hasn’t finished less than 36th place. In that span he has three Top 5s and a win. My favorite of the rookie class, I will play him almost every week as I feel his game translates well to all courses.
Exposure – 33%

Tony Finau $8,300 – With solid FedEx Cup history and his game rounding into form recently, it complements his 25th place in the model. His ability to score in bunches is always attractive especially on the longer Par 4s.
Exposure – 29%

Players priced between $7,000 and $7,900

Joaquin Niemann $7,500 – Niemann is very cheap this week and because of this alone should be highly owned. Ball striking and approach are always the strength oh his game. With three Top 25s in his last four outings Niemann finds himself eighth in the overall model for the Northern Trust.
Exposure – 38%

Matthew Wolff $7,700 – Wolff was one of the most decorated college golfers in the modern era. In his short time on the PGA tour he’s quickly shown that he can win in the pros. Always a monster off the tee I expect Wolff to play well here and earn a trip to next week’s tournament.
Exposure – 43%

Gary Woodland $7,800 – Despite his short game giving him problems at times, this price tag is a mismatch. Woodland is one of the best in the field at clubbing down. With his twins now born you’ll hear both narratives. One that he will be tired, the other, he’ll no longer have the stress of their birth on is mind. With this in mind, it’s throwing off my perception of his ownership. Regardless I’ll have plenty more than the field.
Exposure – 38%

Andrew Putnam $7,400 – In one of the stronger fields at the St. Jude Invitational a few weeks back, Putnam finished 24th. His approach and short game is his main strength. Coming in at 25th in the model with sub five percent ownership, I’ll take my shot.
Exposure – 43%

Players priced between $6,000 and $6,900

Roger Sloan $6,400 – Solid ball striker with a great short game. Coming off three out of four Top 25 finishes I don’t need much for him to succeed.
Exposure – 57%

C,T, Pan $6,400 – With no MDF, Pan is a pure salary saver. Sitting at 35th in the FedEx Cup standings, I just need him to not be the worst in the field.
Exposure – 52%

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Northern Trust. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailyDFS) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news.

Stat source: FantasyNational

 

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