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Fantasy Golf

Valspar Championship Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Scottie Scheffler added to the legacy that is The Players Championship, as he romped to what ended up being a relatively simple 5 shot victory. Scheffler was easily our favourite player at the top of the board, but hard to justify as positive value at just 11/1 on a volatile course. Perhaps the scariest fact is that he was negative putting for the week until draining a long putt on the 18th. Thankfully, we don’t need to deal with the Big Three for our Valspar Championship picks this week.

For DFS purposes, we did have Scheffler alongside Hovland and Hoge as our core. Hoge was excellent value, priced at 140/1 in odds markets and $7,300 in DFS with just 3% ownership. Obviously, those three players finished in 3 of the top 4 spots. Hoge cashed us a full place payout with 1 unit at +2500 and 3 units +400 for a Top 20. We also score a Top 20 on Russell Henley with 3 units at +360. On the DP World Tour, Julien Brun finished 7th without really threatening the win. We score a full play payout on him with 2.5 units at +500. Let’s look for the winner this week in our Valspar Championship picks!

Course Analysis & Course Comps

Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week for our Valspar Championship picks — Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week

Innisbrook Golf Resort plays host this week, specifically the Copperhead Course. As we look to our Valspar Championship picks, it is worthy to note this is rarely a birdie fest. Winnings scores should reach low teens at best. There is even a chance that something in the -10 to -15 range may be good enough this week, with course changes and the weather (more on this shortly).

This tricky, narrow setup requires accuracy over distance off the tee. Finding the fairway is imperative and you will see players clubbing down often for their tee shots. The course is a long 7,340 yard par 71 with a unique five par 3 setup. This leads to a disproportionate number of iron shots occurring 175 yards or longer. Further, all five par 3s are 195 yards or longer.

In regards to the course changes, the rough has moved from 72″ to 21″. It has also been allowed to grow out to 3.75in, up from 3in last year. When you get very thick rough right up to the green, this limits the creativity and shot selections available to the player. Therefore, I suspect this will take some of the skill out of the chipping and add a bit of luck/volatility to the short game. It is worth noting this change.

Surprisingly, the majority of models I have seen this week are still hammering SG: ATG as if this change has not occurred. Chipping will absolutely form a part of the week. Certainly, the greens are medium to small in size, firm, and with high winds they will be hard to find from long distance. However, I simply don’t think SG: ATG should play the large emphasis some are suggesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y8GjlcTmXA&t=1s

Course Comps Used for our Valspar Championship picks

Do note that Innisbrook has offered a low correlation between prior form and future success. I believe the reasons for this are two-fold. One, the tight fairways and thick rough add an element of volatility to the course. And, secondly, the top players usually avoid this tournament meaning some less consistent results may be expected.

In order of weighting and level of correlation, the following courses formed our guidance this week: Muirfield, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Concession, PGA National, TPC Sawgrass.

Weather

A decent weather edge has developed as the tournament has approached.

Thursday afternoon looks to have the lowest winds of the day. Further, adding to this edge is a very windy Friday. Friday winds peak in the afternoon at 15-18mph with gusts reaching up to 30mph. This leads to an advantage on both of the first two days for the players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM. Currently, we are projecting this edge to be a substantial 0.75-1.00 strokes on average.

Also, an important note for Saturday and Sunday is there may be thunderstorms in the area. It is a distinct possibility that any substantial delays would result in a loss of a days play.

In this instance, it is unlikely the PGA Tour will extend the finish to Monday due to the early start Wednesday next week with the WGC Matchplay. I will be paying close attention to the weather and advise accordingly. If it appears a 54 hole tournament is a possibility, some in-play opportunities may develop where some outsiders close to the lead manage to hold on due to the truncated tournament.

Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord here for the latest live updates.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Valspar Championship Picks & Golf Betting Tips – Final Card

Suggested Staking – 25 points staked

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Fanduel/MGM
2.5pts Top 5 +490 Fanduel
or
2.5pts E/W +2500 Bet365 (with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts +4000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +360 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Taylor Moore
2pts +7000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +7000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Mark Hubbard
0.5pts WIN +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20

Kevin Roy
0.5pt WIN +38000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +3000 Draftkings
or 0.5pt E/W +40000 William Hill (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 Fanduel/Draftkings
And
2pts Top 40 +300 Draftkings/ +400 Bet365

DFS Core: Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, Tyler Duncan.

Player Profiles

Favourites Analysis

We have been rather spoiled of late with the elevated event schedules coming into full force. I don’t think this can be argued to be a “weak” field. Certainly, there will be other tournaments this year which carry far less class than we find here. However, with the absence of the usual studs of Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy at the top of the board, it makes an interesting situation where all the players at the top of the board carry some concerns.

Questions have to be asked of the poor short game for Justin Thomas over the last 6 months, coupled with a regression in his usual elite iron play. Spieth is a shade better, having found some better irons in 3 of his last 4 starts. His driving accuracy remains a slight concern for me here. Sam Burns goes for the three-peat here but has looked nothing like the golfer he was when he achieved those back-to-back victories. All three end up on the wrong side of the predicted weather edge. Fitzpatrick gets the better side of it, but has been heavily backed in after Ben Coley tipped him and still carries some injury concerns.

Realistically, this then leaves with Hadwin, Fleetwood, and Rose. Hadwin is on the wrong side of the draw and hasn’t won a tournament since 2017. Fleetwood’s only victories since 2018 have both come at the Nedbank Challenge (November 2019 and 2022). I do think Fleetwood profiles well for here and has shown better form of late. However, both of those victories came in lower standard DP World Tour tournaments with a reduced field of 66 and 63 players.

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite

As such, we are left with Justin Rose. Arriving here after another strong finish of 6th at The Players Championship, Rose was a recent winner in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That windy, narrow test with small greens is certainly not the worst consideration towards the style of play required for success this week. His approach play is vastly improved in his last 5 starts and he also gained on driving accuracy quite significantly to the field last week. He also is one of the few top players that get the perceived right side of the weather draw. Justin Rose sits 18th for Par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour for the 2022-2023 season and should benefit from this unusual scorecard setup.

Finally, the correlating course form is excellent. Included in this is a course history including 9 top 30s (with 3 Top 10s) in 11 appearances. The two other tournaments were missed cuts, but came when losing -1.99 and -2.55 strokes putting per round having gained all other appearances here. Justin Rose owns a house in Florida and is familiar with these bermuda grass surfaces. This all indicates that this is a track that really suits his overall game and style of play, all for a golfer in excellent form.

Wyndham Clark

In our 2022 season review and 2023 season preview episode, I mentioned Wyndham Clark as one of three players that I expected would have a big year. His recent form has really shown that his maiden PGA Tour victory may be imminent. This has been driven by huge improvement in his approach play, previously the weakness in his game. Such has been the growth, that Clark now rates as 4th in this field for SG: APP in the last 3 months. Notably, last week’s performance saw him gain on the field for driving accuracy suggesting a comfort in clubbing down off the tee. Typically excellent around the greens and putting, long off the tee, and with his irons having shown eye-catching improvement this seems an opportunity primed for breakout.

Having only mildly lost strokes putting here on his three previous appearances, I’m heartened by the fact he has gained substantially on the Florida greens in all appearances at both the Honda Classic and The Players. Last week’s 27th place finish at The Players marks 10 made cuts in a row, with 9 of those finishes 37th or better and 4 in the top 16.

Data Golf currently rank Wyndham Clark as the 33rd best player in the world, just behind Justin Rose in 31st. His Official World Golf Ranking of 109th suggests this is a situation ripe for imminent correction. Considering the recent run of elevated events, it all bodes well for Wyndham Clark in this field.

Taylor Moore

Taylor Moore rated as the best value in my first look for our Valspar Championship picks. Unfortunately, he ending up on the wrong side of the draw and this did move him down the board slightly in my models. However, he still presents decent value if he can fade the weather draw.

Taylor Moore qualified for the PGA Tour after finishing an impressive 4th on the Korn Ferry Tour ahead of the likes of Taylor Pendrith and Davis Riley. A rookie season was quietly solid, qualifying for the Fed Ex Cup playoffs and making it through to the BMW Championship.

He has now started 2023 with real intent. Of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 50 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards, Moore ranks 3rd. He has gained +2.68 strokes on approach in 3 of his last 5 starts. Accurate off the tee whilst maintaining distance is an advantage here, as are his putting statistics with missed greens an inevitably for all players. Beside the 35th at the “5th major” last week, he also recently finished 14th at the WM Phoenix Open in another elevated event. It all profiles well for this drop in grade.

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value

Surpassing Moore for best value in my model this week was Tyler Duncan. Duncan profiles really nicely for this course, benefits from the weather draw, and is moving into decent form. Duncan has now gained or been at field average for approach in his last four tournaments. He ranks 10th in this field for SG: Total and 15th for SG: T2G over those four events. Notably, he also ranks as number 1 for driving accuracy gaining a massive 15.3% on the field.

The 54th finish last week at The Players should be read a bit more kindly than it first appears on paper. In consideration should be taken in the context of the strength of field alongside a final round losing a 2nd worst -3.36 strokes putting. Had he even putted at field average in the final round, he would have finished a very respectable 27th. That is easily forgivable for me in a first real appearance of note in a huge event like The Players.

Duncan has finished 25th and 39th in his last two appearances here whilst gaining putting. Two missed cuts preceded this, but came when losing with the putter and in pretty dreadful incoming form. However, he has gained on approach here in all 4 starts. The 3rd at the Honda Classic two starts ago is a great pointer to success. He gained +1.53 putting per round to sit 6th for SG: PUTT that week on similar greens, having also gained significantly at that tournament previously. If he can bring that putter through to this week, he could be a real dark horse come Sunday.

Mark Hubbard

Following a career best year in 2022 on the PGA Tour, Hubbard holds some great upside for me this week. Notably, the main difference to last year thus far has been a pretty horrific start to the year putting. Long run data suggests this is actually a strength to his game typically, and encouragingly he gained +1.15 strokes putting here last year. With putting one of the most volatile statistics, it can also be the quickest to return.

As well as gaining strokes putting last week when 35th at The Players, Hubbard gained across the board last week. He has gained for driving accuracy in 7 straight tournaments and his approach play has improved lately as well. This all suggests his ball striking is in fine shape. Hubbard actually sits 9th of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 40 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Driving accuracy, improved ball striking, and long irons all leads to a picture that should fit here.

Kevin Roy

Finally, I can’t resist a speculative play on Kevin Roy at overly inflated odds. Kevin Roy is in a rich vein of ball-striking form, sitting 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months. A lot of these approach gains have come at 150 yards or more. Particularly, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour in 2023 with more than 25 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Perhaps even more eye-popping is that he is 11th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. He has also gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last two starts, suggesting the excellent ball striking should continue here.

Also of note is that Roy is somewhat of a local. He moved to Tampa Bay straight after college and has been based in the area ever since. You have to imagine he has played this course a number of times and will experience some comfort of that local knowledge, as well as staying at his own home each night. A lot will come down to whether he can find his putter here. However, having gained putting in 5 of his last 8 starts that is certainly with the risk for me at such a huge price.

Thank you reading our 2023 Valspar Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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The Players Picks 2023: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The Players Picks 2023 include some value longshots this week

The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour’s flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.

It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn’t shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to McIlroy at the CJ Cup, and 2nd to Schauffele at the Scottish Open. Where others shy away, Kitayama has shown he can hang around with the best. We also secured a full place payout on Tyrrell Hatton. He also had his winning chances, as did Schauffele who faded over the weekend.

Finally, before we get into our Players picks, in the alternate event we had 6/6 make the cut at the Puerto Rico Open with 5/6 ending up 33rd or better. 80/1 shot John VanDerLaan the brightest of those to finish 7th cashing both Top 10 and Top 20 tickets. A correct weather prediction in 2022 saw us score big on 225/1 shot Russell Knox securing a full place payout. All promising signs for our Players picks in 2023.

Weather is a factor for your Players picks

Will weather be a factor in 2023 for our Players picks? Last year, we were one of few in the industry to get the weather right. Where all others predicted a Thursday PM/Friday AM, we were contrarian and recommend the opposite. Reasoning was that Thursday PM was likely to face substantial delays due to thunderstorms in the area. This would lead to the perceived weather edge flipping. This indeed happened, and we found ourselves on the right side of a huge weather edge of more than +3 strokes on average.

Although the weather does not appear to be as significant as in 2022, there does seem to be a potential advantage developing. Thursday AM looks to have marginally higher winds than Thursday PM, which are forecast to drop throughout the afternoon. Friday PM winds do look to be increasing on current forecasting models. Gusts Friday PM now look forecast to consistently hit over 30mph.

This will not be the same weather edge we experienced last year. However, it should form part of your process making your Players picks. It should absolutely be used as a tiebreaker if deciding between two specific players. We currently predict the edge to fall around the 0.5-0.75 strokes range given current weather predictions.

Latest weather forecast click here

Key Course Stats and Comp Courses

Course Analysis for our Players Picks

TPC Sawgrass provides a stern test and, perhaps the reason the tournament holds such allure, is that it serves as a great leveler. The key statistic I keep coming back to his driving accuracy. This has been a great predictor of success on this course in years past. It is also worthy noting that the rough has been grown out another full extra inch in 2023. With rough at 3.5in, finding the rough will be even more important this week.

The penalty of rough plays one part and so does the large amount of water in play here. Water features of 17 out of 18 holes. TPC Sawgrass ranks as 7th on tour for most penalty strokes incurred. Missed fairway percentage sits at 13th most on tour. As such, this is one of the most volatile stops on the PGA Tour calendar so do note this when interpreting our Players picks.

Dispersion of approach shots also bears interest. This is the 5th most difficult course for approach shots under 150 yards. Specifically, the 50-125 yard bracket sees a disproportionate number of shots. On the other end of the scale, there are a larger number of shots over 225 yards. This is a combination of going for par 5s in two, but also golfers clubbing down off the tee to gain accuracy and avoid penalties. It is the latter which is why driving distance seems to be an advantage here. For our Players picks, personally would rather delve into the actual meaningful statistics which are the approach metrics from those key distances.

Comp Courses for our Players Picks

Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club is the key correlated course this week for your Players picks. Si Woo Kim has won at both including an additional 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for good measure. Additionally, Webb Simpson and Henrik Stenson have won at both. This, though, extends to more than tournament winners. Anirban Lahiri followed his 2nd at The Players with 8th at the Wyndham. Then there is Adam Scott who has 5 Top 15s at The Players and a 2nd around Sedgefield. The list goes on ad infinitum.

Other guides are Harbour Town: another Pete Dye designed short, positional course with premium on accuracy and approach. Then, you have the similar TPC tracks to consider. Most notably TPC Potomac along with TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. The Valspar Championship also shows parallels. It benefits both from similarly requiring accuracy off the tee and rewarding approach, btu also sharing very similar putting surfaces.

The aforementioned volatility shapes my Players picks. The three winners from 2019-2022 (2020 cancelled due to COVID) have been studs: Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. That could so easily read: Anirban Lahiri, Lee Westwood, and a 50 year old Jim Furyk. There are opportunities to be had here if you can find the right combinations. Hence, the lopsided selections towards value at longer odds this week.

2023 The Players Picks

Suggested Staking

Note several of the below players were provided early in WinDaily Discord to obtain the best odds for our customers. Unfortunately, several of these have now ended up on the wrong side of the developing weather draw. Tee-times are noted accordingly.

Tom Kim (AM/PM)
2pts WIN +4100 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +360 DK
or 2pts E/W +4500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk (PM/AM) – Our Players Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +8000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Draftkings or +700 Bet365
or 2pts E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge (PM/AM)
1pt WIN +13000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Fanduel or +1100 William Hill/Unibet
or 1pt E/W +12500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +400 Unibet

Russell Henley (AM/PM)
0.5pt WIN +11000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +750 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel

Davis Riley (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +18000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel or +650 Unibet
3pts Top 40 +350 MGM

Webb Simpson (AM/PM) – Our Players Picks Best Value
0.5pt WIN +15000 MGM
0.5pt Top 10 +1000 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 +250 Fanduel

J.T. Poston (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +22000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 MGM
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 J.T. Poston +240 Fanduel or +300 Bet365

David Lipsky (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +45000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +2200 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +40000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +850 Draftkings
3pts Top 40 +250 Draftkings

Thank you reading our 2023 The Players picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Tom Kim Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks — We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like “regularly scheduled programming” with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.

Despite being an “off” week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason and purpose for them to win and not just their paycheck. Undoubtedly, Chris Kirk’s victory in the playoff win over Eric Cole provided all the narratives for the week.

Our 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

We hope our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks are as well received as last year. At this event in 2022, we went agonizingly close with three of our six selections all looking likely title charges. Viktor Hovland (16/1), Gary Woodland (80/1), and Lucas Herbert (200/1) all presented likely winners during the tournament. They eventually finished 2nd, 5th, and 7th respectively. Woodland was actually the most likely, until finding a bunker and a double bogey on the 17th followed by another bogey down the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7696AUCkrIo

Gary Woodland reviews a tough finish to his 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational title tilt

That stumble allowed Scottie Scheffler to surprisingly snatch victory. Let’s hope our 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks produce more of the same with some better fortune.

Course Analysis

It is first essential to note that Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses some of the highest correlation of prior course form to success on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National and TPC Scottsdale hold a higher correlation. This unique and difficult test does have a few nuances which identify this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.

You will hear a lot on driving distance being a predictive factor this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact on face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Rather, the extremely juicy 3in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape.

The distance off the tee also comes into play with the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play as the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, those longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hand for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and glassy fast greens.

Fairways are decently wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300 yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. Green complexes are also very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. This is predominantly due to where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR, as well as the lengthened approach shots into many holes.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks – Key Metrics

For our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, this all leads to a profile of heavy emphasis on approach. Driving distance is a bonus, but my key is finding value by honing into the 200+ yard approach metrics. SG: PUTT receives a boost given the inclement weather and large green complexes. SG: ATG is minimized due to thick rough surrounding the greens meaning the natural variation of lies mitigates those with excellent pitching ability.

Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part in your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. There are another few courses which can guide our thinking. Do take a look at round 4 from last year’s tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on both Friday and Saturday.

As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those venues can provide guidance. Host of the PGA Championship last year was Southern Hills, which has similar metrics with the added benefit of being a wind affected event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both on long approach play but also reasonably large fairways with significant penalty if straying too far. Trump National Doral is a fantastic guide for anyone whose form goes back that far.

Weather

Already well canvassed across many tipsters, it does look that a firm weather edge is forming. Friday afternoon in particular looks to feature some significant winds with gusts reaching over 35 mph. These high winds are then expected to remain through the 3rd round before easing slightly Sunday. A Thursday PM/Friday AM stack looks to be the play.

As always, this does come with risks. There is a chance that this particular front will arrive earlier than expected. This could result in any advantage being negated, and missed opportunities in the other half of the field. However, I always like to take an aggressive approach in these situations. We have tangible data to action here. And the closer we have got to tee time, the certainty of the Friday weather remaining exclusively in the afternoon has also increased.

https://www.windy.com/28.465/-81.510?27.913,-81.510,8,m:esBadTk

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele
2.5pts E/W $23.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $36.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
2pts E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Gary Woodland
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.20

Patrick Rodgers
0.5pts E/W $176.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.00

Will Gordon
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds) *available at 350/1 or longer without the places
3pts Top 20 $8.50

Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks Favourite

With Chris Kirk becoming the umpteenth golfer to win a week or two after featuring in our selections, I’m happy to take Xander here again to headline our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks. Last time in our tips was at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, where he was just one shot off the lead heading into the final 9. A cold putter saw 6 of 9 putts missing by 25in or less. He finished just one shot outside the places for us. And not without some controversy too.

https://twitter.com/Top100Rick/status/1624793261545070593?s=20

Over the past two years, Xander ranks out 2nd of all PGA Tour players with over 300 measured approach shots 200+ yards. He sits only behind Sungjae Im. I prefer Xander for a couple reasons.

First, there are couple of par 4s here under 400 yards where Xander’s much better approach from 50-100 yards will come at an advantage. Secondly, Xander’s approach play of late has been nothing short of incredible.

Schauffele arrives here after four consecutive tournaments gaining 4+ strokes on approach. Over the last three months, Schauffele also tops the list for SG: APP in this field. He has never finished worse than 14th at a US Open, with 5/6 of those finishes an incredible 7th or better. And in his sole appearance at Bay Hill, he gained +6.5 strokes putting.

Tyrrell Hatton

Past champion Tyrrell Hatton was somewhat disappointing for us when selected last time at the Genesis Invitational. I’m willing to forgive him and go back to him here on a track obviously suited to his game. The real difficulty for Hatton last time out came simply not getting his entire game firing at the same time.

Thursday he was 14th SG: PUTT and 23rd SG: ATG, but 115th SG: APP and 91st SG: OTT.
Friday he was 27th SG: APP and 9th for SG: OTT, but 95th for SG: PUTT and 93rd SG: ATG.
Saturday he was 3rd SG: OTT, 5th SG: ATG, and 15th SG: PUTT yet 67th SG: APP.
Sunday he was 3rd SG: APP, but 46th SG: OTT, 39th SG: ATG, and 66th SG: PUTT.

You can see where I am going with this; he really just needs to put this all together at the same time and he can win. For SG: APP on shots 200+ yards, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour since 1 January 2023.

We saw shades of this at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, when finishing 6th in the elevated field. He gained a massive +6.72 SG: APP at that event and also holds a 15th in his only other appearance. Where course history matters most here, he sits 4th in this field for any golfer who has played 6 rounds or more.

I also love that last year he was one of only four golfers to shoot under par in a very windy final round. Complimenting that is a strong performance at a very windy Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which is a Rolex Series event on the DP World Tour. With wind again a factor this year, he looks a great fit on a course he loves at a reasonable price.

Tom Kim

It is easy to come up with all manner of superlatives to describe this talented 20 year old. And, equally, easy to forget how young he still is given all he has already achieved in the sport. To snag him back at a price of 50/1 is great value, especially when you consider he is shorter odds than that at all 4 majors this year.

The only reason I can think why bookmakers rate him 30% less likely to win this event than a major is driving distance. However, even this is a tenuous position. Masters typically rewards driving distance as does the US Open. Further, the main interest for me with distance comes from the approach play.

Tom Kim sits in the Top 10 of this field for SG: APP over the last 12 months. He also sits 5th on the PGA Tour over the last 2 years for SG: APP over 200+ yards. He holds onto 5th if we look at the same metric since 1 January 2023.

Given he is plenty long in this field for me, the fact he is significantly positive for driving accuracy is another big tick. Keeping on the short grass will be a big advantage here if hitting approach shots from distance. We all know what he can do with the putter, including during the Presidents Cup hosted at Quail Hollow which features similar greens to here.

Gary Woodland – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value

As mentioned in the preamble, Woodland really should have won this tournament for us last year. Holding a one stroke lead with two holes to play, a double bogey-bogey finish in the wind was a disappointing end to an overall valiant effort.

Woodland’s approach play looks to be back to its best of late. He arrives here ranked 5th for SG: APP over the last 30 days. This includes gaining an insane +10.48 SG: APP in his last tournament. That sat only behind winner Jon Rahm and Luke List, with a substantial distance to the pack. To secure him here again at 80/1, as we did last year, seems a steal for a golfer whose two most recent victories have come at the correlated US Open and WM Phoenix Open.

The issue for Woodland, as it is in most cases, will come down to the putter. The fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4/5 of his most recent appearances makes this one of the better spots for him.

Patrick Rodgers

We enter the somewhat speculative plays, but hopefully with sufficient equity in the top finishes markets to justify a couple of flyers here. Rodgers heads those picks. Data Golf currently have Rodgers ranked as 59th in the world versus an OWGR of 140th. Disparities like that often have a way of eventually correcting themselves, and it could well be here.

Rodgers has a decent record at Bay Hill, making 6/7 cuts and finishing 7th in 2018. Correlated form includes 14th, 16th, and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a perfect record of made cuts in the US Open.

Patrick Rodgers arrives here hitting his long irons well, sitting in the Top 10 on the PGA Tour for SG: APP 200+ yards since 1 January 2023. He has plenty of driving distance and consistently gains strokes both ATG and putting. This includes gaining SG: Putt in 6/7 appearances here.

Rodgers was T11 in round 4 scoring here in 2022, which was played in those torrid windy conditions. Recent correlated form of 14th at the WM Phoenix Open elevated event suggests the 175/1 price is simply too long.

Will Gordon

Finally, we round out this week’s selections with another dive down the board to Will Gordon. The PGA Tour returnee had a stellar amateur career and holds some good correlating form on Florida tracks particularly from the Korn Ferry Tour.

Gordon has gained strokes on approach and driving accuracy in four straight events. He sits 30th for SG: APP and 40th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 30 days. But it is again the long iron performance which holds the most appeal. Gordon currently sits 17th on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months for SG: APP over 200+ yards. Having gained on the field for driving distance at every event since March 2022, he does so without often compromising driving accuracy so ticks the SG: OTT box in a big way.

His sole appearance here came in 2021 during his first full season. It was a tough year for him in general, so the 49th finish should be read in the light of coming during a weak period of form. Rather, I’ll focus on the positive that he gained +4.00 SG: PUTT during the tournament to sit 12th in that metric. Arriving here with much improved approach play and undoubtedly a more rounded player, he is worth a gamble at huge odds.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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WM Phoenix Open Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks at TPC Scottsdale — Xander Schauffele can turn his elite course form into another PGA Tour victory

Another week and it was a consecutive runner-up finish for our picks! That keeps our run of selecting a golfer in the Top 5 or better at every PGA Tour event in 2023. It truly has been a great start to the year. In this instance, it was Brendon Todd who secured 2nd behind Justin Rose in a heavily wind delayed Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Another runner-up, this time at 70/1, and we are well in profit for the year. The hot streak shows no signs of stopping any time soon with our WM Phoenix Open Picks!

The WM Phoenix Open represents the first full field of the designated events since the PGA Tour meetings in 2022. Chiefly, this was a direct attempt to negate the effect of LIV Golf on the tour. This sees a field of Major championship calibre competing for a generous $20m purse. Let’s get into it!

Course Analysis

TPC Scottsdale plays host to this event as it has done since 1987. Do note some substantial redesign work was completed in 2014. The course now provides a sterner test which has become renowned as an all around test of a golfer’s game. As such, the cream often rises to the top here. The winner has been priced at 50/1 or less at every tournament since those renovations. 5 out of 8 of those winners have been at 30/1 or shorter.

Trends are nice, but not always informative. Therefore, this should not be the sole influence to your WM Phoenix Open Picks. Remember, we are looking for value not necessarily winners. For an article with insights on what this means and my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

Ball-striking is well-linked to success here. Somewhat overlooked by others in the industry this week is that this course is also a major factor. Solely looking at SG: T2G would exclude one of the key indicators for potential success. The greens here are very large at over 7,000 sq feet on average. Ideally, we want elite ball strikers who can then give us a chance of making putts. Especially, the putting statistics might come into play with some long putts required. The greens are playing ultra fast and firm, as are the fairways. Rough is not overly penal at just 2 inches ryegrass.

Comp Courses for our WM Phoenix Open Picks

This course is one of the highest correlations between prior course form and future success. In fact, the only courses with greater correlation are Augusta National, Waialae, and Bay Hill. As a matter of fact, Bay Hill is a decent course comp for this track, as is the 2022 PGA Championship host Southern Hills and Houston Open host Memorial Park. Those three said courses have played a key role in determining our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Weather

Alongside a dry course with no rain in the forecast, there is wind to contend with here. Consequently, this should add to those aforementioned firm and fast conditions. Expect higher missed fairways per usual, as holding the short grass becomes more difficult. It is also forecast to be cold all week, particularly in the mornings.

The winds at this stage have not resulted in any discernible edge for a weather draw. Generally, increased winds are expected both on the afternoon of the Thursday and Friday. Overall, gusts look to be at a similar strength across both days. However, Friday AM may end up windier than Thursday AM. Accordingly, it may be worthy building some lines with exclusively Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times to cover an eventuality where Friday AM ends up particularly tumultuous.

https://www.windy.com/33.640/-111.915?icon,33.117,-111.915,8,m:eBfac2D

2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Alex Noren
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Shane Lowry
2pts E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.60

Lucas Herbert
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Chris Kirk
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pt E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.50
2pts Top 40 $2.70

Golfer Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Favourite Play

Firstly, Xander Schauffele leads our WM Phoenix Open Picks. Xander emphatically shook off his (somewhat undeserved) reputation for having difficulty crossing the winners line. Wins at the Zurich Classic, Travelers Championship, and Genesis Scottish Open all contributed to a stellar year in 2022.

At 17/1, there is real value in the number on offer where fair odds would place him more in the space of a 14/1 chance. Correlated form bounds off the page for Xander. Across his obvious course form here, at Bay Hill, and at Southern Hills, he has never finished worse than 24th in those 7 starts.

In fact, he ranks 2nd in true SG at this course for any golfer with more than 4 rounds played. Leading that is Matsuyama, who I can easily fade this week given his indifferent form and possible long-term lingering injury concerns. Scheffler and Rahm follow closely

Notably, this form includes a 3rd and 2nd here in his last two appearances. Previous fears of a neck injury for Xander at the Sentry Tournament of Champions look to now be gone. He returned just two weeks later to finish 3rd at The American Express and followed that with a 13th around the tougher Torrey Pines course at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is fit, in great form, and arrives at a course which is one of his favourites on the PGA Tour.

Alex Noren

Alex Noren looks to be back at his best having finished in the Top 5 in his last three starts. In November, Noren finished 4th at the Houston Open where Memorial Park presents strong links to TPC Scottsdale. That result came from nowhere after a very indifferent 42nd in a weak field at Mayakoba, suggesting the type of track that suits his eye.

He has kept that recent form at other desert courses in the Middle East. A 2nd at the DP World Tour Championship behind one Jon Rahm, when we had Noren in our tips at long odds, and a 5th at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship both present elite form in two Rolex Series events.

Alex Noren ranks 1st in this field for SG: PUTT and 26th for SG: APP over the last 3 months. Those two metrics together provide a nice recipe for success on this track of pin seekers who can then make putts when needed.

The course history and comp course performances are stout. A 6th here last year alongside a 44th and 21st when in worse form in 2018/19 both joining the 4th place at the Houston Open. He was an obvious must include for our WM Phoenix Open Picks.

Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry had statistically the best year of his career in 2022, surpassing even his 2019 season when he won The Open Championship and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

Lowry was perhaps unlucky to secure just the one win, although it was a big one in the BMW PGA Championship when he backed him for the win as he secured the flagship event on the DP World Tour. We also had him as our favourite play when he finished 3rd at The Masters, and somehow he continues to be overlooked despite being amongst the true elite players of this era.

I believe leading people astray was a missed cut at the Dubai Desert Classic last start. It should be noted that event was severely weather affected, including losing a full day of play, and there was a significant draw bias that formed as a result. However, strike a line through that and his form reads beautifully. Over the last 12 months, he ranks 8th in this field for SG: APP.

In terms of correlated form, a 23rd at Southern Hills in the PGA Championship was better than it looked again suffering from a large draw bias. He also holds a 11th at Memorial Park and a 6th and 16th here at TPC Scottsdale from 2016 and 2017 respectively.

Lowry is a better golfer now and, despite being a stronger field, he simply should not be as long as 70/1. He also recently fired his caddy, due to losing their competitive spark. Given he is playing so well, that is promising to his confidence in his game at the moment. And we have often seen a golfer make such a change and immediately spike in performance, which may well happen here.

Keith Mitchell – Your 2023 WM Phoenix Open Picks Best Value

It was close between Lowry and Mitchell who would earn the tag of “best value” for this week. Keith Mitchell will typically give you some excellent driving, with gains both on distance and accuracy.

He is also gaining significantly on approach lately, finishing in the Top 30 for SG: APP in his last two starts. Entering here on the back of a 22nd and 4th, both coming at shorter courses which for me are not Mitchell’s best fits, is certainly promising.

Again, the comp course form really pops here. Mitchell was 9th in November at Memorial Park, finished 34th at Southern Hills when in dreadful form of MC-MC-76 in his three prior starts, and has a 5th and 6th around Bay Hill. To boot, he finished 10th at TPC Scottsdale at last year’s edition.

As always with Mitchell, it will come down to his putting for the week. Given his recent form filling him with confidence, and his prior form on these greens, it presents a promising opportunity for Mitchell to secure his 2nd PGA Tour victory.

Lucas Herbert

Our WinDaily family will know I have a soft spot for Lucas Herbert in windy conditions, which we may well encounter this week. Irrespective of that, Herbert simply presents as a golfer in great form with excellent results at similar events.

Herbert arrives off two stellar tournaments in the desert. A 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic continued his rich association with that event (and makes the 250/1 on offer for him at The Masters even more absurd). He followed that with a 3rd at the Saudi International. That was not necessarily a weak field as the Asian Tour’s flagship event, won by Abe Ancer with Cam Young in 2nd.

Other correlated form comes at Southern Hills when finishing 13th, where we had backed him at 300/1. He also finished 7th around Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer, when we also had him at 200/1. Although we sadly can’t find him at those juicy triple figure odds here, that is largely down to his more obvious recent form than the more nuanced indicators in his game I look for.

Lucas Herbert is the inverse of many profiles we look for. He is one of the best putters in the world, ranking 4th over the last 2 years and 2nd in the last 12 months for SG: PUTT from this field. What we want to see from Herbert is a spike round with his irons. Given his recent form, he looks to be hitting the ball beautifully and could well contend on this desert track.

Chris Kirk

The numbers around Kirk are rather absurd for a golfer who arrives here following two consecutive 3rd place finishes. It becomes even more baffling when we deep dive some of his prior form on related courses.

Kirk finished 14th here in 2022, to compliment prior performances of an 11th and 24th. In 2022, he also finished 5th at Bay Hill as well as a 5th at the PGA Championship around Southern Hills. Those were his two best finishes for the year, and the fact they both came at correlated courses to here whilst in elite fields is extremely promising.

He is not the longest off the tee, which is not overly detrimental. This is a course played at altitude which will also be playing very firm and fast. In fact, his superior driving accuracy could prove beneficial as will his excellent iron play. Kirk ranks at 9th for SG:APP over the last 3 months, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 12th for SG: T2G in this field. Those are outrageous numbers considering the strength of field on offer, as well as his price.

Jhonattan Vegas

Finally, we go back to Jhonny Vegas here having not done much wrong for us last time out at the Farmers. Vegas secured a Top 40 place for us there, as he returns from planned shoulder surgery in August of 2022.

Vegas look to be straight into it. He gained on the field for driving distance and accuracy in his two tournament starts this year. He has also gained on SG: APP in both appearances. If we take a longer term look at his form, we find a player who ranks 16th in SG: OTT and 23rd for SG: APP in this field, as well as 32nd for SG: TOTAL, over the last two years.

Jhonattan Vegas finished 10th at his last appearance here in 2019, as well as holding a 23rd at Bay Hill that same year. Overall, that is a lot of value for a player at 200/1 who has been largely forgotten about in fields of late due to a planned absence he looks fully recovered from. We won’t and happily go right back to him here at a big price.

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Brendon Todd is great value at the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks — Brendon Todd is great value at the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Last week’s Farmers Insurance Open and Torrey Pines provided a tough test as it always does. Keegan Bradley was well in contention when selected at 66/1. Going for the par-5 18th in two, Bradley found the greenside bunker and was unable to get up and down for a bogey. With thicker rough than previous iterations and a bit of wind, a score of 13-under was enough for Max Homa to secure a two shot victory over our charge. That marks Homa’s 4th victory in his home state of California, where we remain for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

It has been a fantastic start to 2023 for our selections, with at least one golfer finishing in the Top 5 or better at every tournament. The 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am presents another course rotation tournament with a 54 hole cut and a slew of celebrities playing alongside the professionals for the first 3 days of play.

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Key Course Stats

The three courses presented this week are Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill. All the courses are short by PGA Tour standards, but cannot be overpowered due to the the unique topography along this stunning coastline.

Pebble Beach in particular, where two of the three rounds will be played for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, requires players to play to a particular yardage perhaps more-so than any other course on Tour. This does see a significant increase in approach shots from 100-150 yards. The greens are also some of the smallest you will see all year, measuring in at just 3,000 sq ft on average. Putting and ATG are also significantly correlated with success.

Monterey Peninsula similarly also has a large emphasis on both approach, around the green, and putting. It will likely play the easiest of the courses on offer this week. It also has received a lot of rainfall in the past 6 weeks, meaning it may play a little softer than the course directors desire.

Spyglass Hill differs slightly, in that it still requires those three metrics but also sees an uptick in driving distance being a predictor of success. Given this represents only one course out of a possible four rounds, it is best to focus on the main metrics common across all courses. Find the fairway and hit a good wedge shot. If you miss the green, get up and down, otherwise make the putt.

Weather

The weather has been very changeable leading into the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which comes as no surprise for a coastal course setup. Thursday presents as calm for most of the day. Some wind may arrive late afternoon. However, it is worth noting that given the courses in rotation that all the groups will tee-off within a 2 hour window. Even with longer rounds playing alongside amateurs, I don’t see the wind being a major factor unless it arrives significantly earlier than forecast.

Friday presents us with rain all day and some moderate gusts throughout the day. I’d prefer to be on either Monterey Peninsula or Spyglass Hill on this day. With Pebble Beach the most exposed, approaching those very small greens could prove difficult despite the rain softening the course.

Saturday is currently forecast to be overcast and reasonably calm, although winds and rain are expected in the evening. These should intensify into Sunday, leading to a forecast very high winds and rain for the final round. It could provide a dramatic end to the tournament.

As at previous course rotation tournaments, predicting the weather and best rotation to be on is a tough task. I suspect avoiding Pebble Beach on Friday is the best play. Beyond that, we would really be guessing to provide any firm advice of a strong preference either way.

https://www.windy.com/36.565/-121.939?36.060,-121.939,8

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

Suggested Staking

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Nick Hardy – Your 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Favourite
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Davis Riley
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Scott Stallings
2pts E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Austin Cook – Your 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Value
0.5pts E/W $226.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
4pts Top 40 $3.50

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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Dubai Desert Classic Picks: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Dubai Desert Classic Picks are headlined by Ryan Fox — Ryan Fox can secure another DP World Tour victory at the Dubai Desert Classic

The DP World Tour moves from Abu Dhabi to the neighbouring Emirate of Dubai for consecutive Rolex Series events to start the season proper. I must admit that this tournament holds a special place in my heart. It was around this course that I first developed in the game of golf and I worked at this tournament for 8 years. Undoubtedly, it gave me incredible access to some of the best in the game and some amazing memories. And here we are, analyzing that same tournament and providing our Dubai Desert Classic picks!

Hence, this tournament is my favourite in the world closely followed by The Masters. Interestingly, there have been strong links between those two events which I will discuss later in the article. This tournament has always had a habit of identifying some of the best in the game. It should make for entertaining viewing. Surprisingly, it already has, with LIV Golf defector Patrick Reed and Rory McIlroy having an icy encounter on the range including throwing a Team Aces tee at him:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9Kpr-Vx6KDQ

Course Form Should Guide Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks

Emirates Golf Club has played host to the Dubai Desert Classic since 1989, other than two years in 1999-2000 before returning to its rightful home.

This course is long by DP World Tour standards, sitting at a 7,428 par 72. The back 9 certainly plays the easier of the two. It features very good birdie chances on the par 5s with the 10th, 13th, and 18th hole all reachable in two. The par 4 17th is a sharp dogleg right that is driveable over waste desert area and the par 5 18th 2nd shot is over water. Both ensure to provide an enthralling finish with true risk-reward shots and the opportunity to gain 2 or 3 strokes in a final charge.

The front nine also has a driveable par 4 2nd and the par 5 3rd is reachable in two. It is then about minimsing damage through the toughest section of the course, with holes 4 through to 9 all proving tricky tests.

It is no surprise then that strong drivers of the golf ball have always done well here. Distance is a key factor, especially when teamed with elite approach play. It is worth noting that this course is the 2nd most correlated on the DP World Tour for prior success as a predictive factor. This should be key in your Dubai Desert Classic picks.

I would also add an asterix to last year’s results. The greens were completely overhauled in September 2021, increasing in size by an average of 33%. They has unfortunately not bedded in fully by tournament start and a few regular top performers struggled to find consistency with putting. Having settled for another full year, I expect business as usual will resume in time to not stymie our Dubai Desert Classic picks.

Comp Courses

Other than prior course form, there are a couple of other courses we can use as guidance for our Dubai Desert Classic picks.

As mentioned, there are some strong links between here and Augusta National Golf Club. Both Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett won the Dubai Desert Classic the same year of their Masters’ victories. Tiger Woods, Mark O’Meara, and Rory McIlroy are winners at both. Clearly, those three have such large winning records that drawing a clear link between the two is somewhat strained. Charl Schwartzel and Adam Scott have both performed well at both, as has Paul Casey.

Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is a great comp course. Overall, there are strong correlation between the two courses. Haotong Li won the BMW International Open for us in 2022 at 65/1 and is a winner here. Viktor Hovland won there in 2021 prior to his Dubai Desert Classic victory. As identified by others that Chris Paisley, Brandon Stone, Alex Levy, Richard Bland and Niklas Fasth help strengthen those bonds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2rcZndjkL0

Weather

Rather strange weather presents itself in Dubai this week. Obviously, rain in the Middle East is a rarity, usually resulting in some chaos as the drainage systems are not used to rain actually occurring. Even more rare is for the rain to make it all the way to the end of January as it does here. Rain is forecast for the first two days and could be heavy at times. A little rain could help scores by shortening the course. However, a lot of rain could make an already long course play even longer.

However, if an edge develops, it is likely to be Thursday PM/Friday AM with Friday morning providing the calmest conditions that day. But, the weather is very changeable and may even lead to some disruption of the tournament.

https://www.windy.com/25.086/55.163?24.518,55.163,8

Dubai Desert Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Adrian Meronk
1.25pts E/W $31.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Ryan Fox – Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Rasmus Hojgaard
1.25pts E/W $51.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
Also available at 40/1 with 8 places if you prefer

Jordan Smith – Your Dubai Desert Classic Picks Best Value
2pts E/W $56.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Antoine Rozner
2pts E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Sami Valimaki
0.25pts E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Adri Arnaus
1pts E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00
Also available at 100/1 if you prefer to go with less places

Ashun Wu
0.25pts E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Paul Waring
0.5pts E/W $276.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60

Ross Fisher
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $4.00

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Farmers Insurance Open: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Farmers Insurance Open hosted at Torrey Pines — The imposing Torrey Pines provides a formidable test this week

Jon Rahm continued his absolute dominance in the world of golf at The American Express. Making it 4 wins from 6 starts across the globe is a rare feat. I note his somewhat snarky comments about still not ranked number 1 as understandable. Fortunately for him, this is a golf course built for him going against our 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks.

The simple fact is, he is unbackable at current pricing. This is a golfer in such great form, but at such a short price, we just have to live with the fact that he may win and if he does then fair play to him. He would rightly have earned that World Number 1 title that he obviously covets. In our favour is a volatile weather forecast and an extremely tough test of golf that bites at every corner.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Torrey Pines plays host this week in another tournament where course rotation comes into play. The course is certainly iconic, however presenting a stern challenge. Notably, the course is long and the rough is thick. The comments from Director of Agronomy for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, Devin Cullen, in the greenkeeper notes make for interesting reading:

“Following the holiday season, frequent rain events hit the property. We have seen years with precipitation totals much higher than what we are seeing, but it is the frequency and consistency that these storms have hit that has given the property little time to dry down. With a few rain events still projected between now and tournament, I’m expecting the course to play longer and thicker than it already does. Should be fun.”

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/torrey-pines-kikuyu-rough-instruction

The rough is indeed thicker this week at 3.5in. It is also Kikuyu, which is sticky and thick, and found in many South African courses. It can snare the hosel of the club, turn your iron over, and suddenly see your ball flying left. Driving distance will be a premium, but expect accuracy to also be a factor here. There will also be a disproportionate long iron shots on this course. With the higher than typical rainfall, the course may play longer and that could also become a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

The North Course provides some mild relief, with golfers playing one of their first two rounds around there. However, the three rounds on the South Course should keep overall scoring low. We can expect a winning total in the range of -10 to -15 for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. Comparable courses would be Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Weather

To add to the test, there does appear to be some stern breezes in store for the players. Particularly in the 2nd round on Thursday afternoon, when gusts may reach up to 35 mph. The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open should provide entertaining viewing!

There are two arguments to be made here. One, the North Course is significantly easier. It may be best to be on the easier course in higher winds. However, the South Course can very easily produce a score of 78 without too much difficulty.

Contrarily, the North Course provides a path to victory. It is one round that allows for some lower scoring, which has been chronicled by several past winners going low on the North Course and then holding on for survival at the South Course.

I then to favour being on the easier course on the tougher day. The South Course is brutal at the best of times, and it may become near unplayable in these winds. Regardless, I want players starting as early as possible on Thursday morning. This should allow at least 9 holes in mild to moderate winds until the higher gusts arrive from 1pm onwards.

https://www.windy.com/32.897/-117.245?32.370,-117.245,8,m:ezYacTK

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite
2.5pts E/W $31.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Alex Smalley
1pt E/W $81.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.80

Brendan Steele
1pts E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.25

Beau Hossler
0.5pts E/W $161.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $5.75
3pts Top 40 $2.88

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value
0.5pts E/W 226.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.00
3pts Top 40 $3.10

Golfer Profiles

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite

Taylor Montgomery headlined our selections last week, and little has changed to damper the enthusiasm. He was sitting in 2nd after the first round, nearly securing a first round leader. With just three holes to play in the tournament, he was just one shot off the lead. The 16th was a good scoring chance and he failed to make birdie, meaning he had to attack the pin at the island green 17th. However, that need to take an aggressive approach led to finding the water and ended his chances.

But, the fact is, he once again put himself in a position to win. That has been a common occurrence for him ever since starting his PGA Tour rookie season. He now arrives at an event he has an emotional connection, and form, with. Montgomery received a sponsor exemption for the Farmers Insurance Open and duly finished 11th at what was his second ever PGA Tour start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sJXs53JHw

On paper, this is also a test that should suit. He has plenty of power off the tee to handle the length of course. It is also inevitable that with the winds forecast all players will miss some greens here. His excellent putting will come in handy in those situations. It also helps going out 2nd on the North Course for the windy Thursday weather. We do have a shortening in his price here, but he also faces a weaker field, and arrives in excellent form to secure his maiden PGA Tour victory.

Keegan Bradley

I have Bradley as one of the better value plays on the board, where his elite long iron play could become a factor at this track. Bradley has 6 Top 25 finishes at this event, including a 4th and a 5th. Bradley secures a 9:20am tee time on the North Course Thursday AM.

Adding to the appeal is that Bradley is long and straight off the tee. He ranks 20th for SG: OTT and 18th for SG: APP in this field. A number of those ranked lower in pricing may also struggle at a test which proves time and again that distance is a huge asset here. With the changes to the course and wind in play, that may be even more of a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

Alex Smalley

Smalley is another golfer who shares the trifecta of driving distance, driving accuracy, and approach play. Those key ball striking attributes will be in hot demand on a stern test such as Torrey Pines. In the key approach distances, Smalley ranked 36th from 175-200 yards and 19th from 200+ yards in 2022.

Of the rounds where we had strokes gained data last week, Smalley averaged +3.41 SG: APP per round to lead the field. Whether he can get the putter rolling is always the question with Smalley. But, I am happy to take that risk given he has previously gained on Poa Annua greens. He also tees off in the first group on Thursday morning on the easier North Course, hopefully avoiding the worst of the weather.

Brendan Steele

Brendan Steele shares some similarity of that trifecta with Smalley. He ranked 12th from 175-200 yards and 79th from 200+ yards in 2022. He also arrives here having gained +2.78 SG: APP per round to be 2nd in the field for that metric at The American Express. And he consistently gains on the field for driving distance and accuracy.

Steele, much like last year’s winner Luke List, profiles as a golfer with some of the best ball-striking on tour and perhaps the worst putting. What does give me confidence here is he has a surprisingly excellent history putting at Torrey Pines. He has gained strokes putting in 8/11 appearances here, and one of the occasions he lost putting he lost just -0.15 strokes per round to basically be at field average.

That is a big anomaly, but one with enough data to be actionable. He does find himself on the South Course for the Thursday, but the metrics are just too good to ignore. We will need to hope he goes low at North Course day one and then holds on in the winds from there.

Beau Hossler

Beau Hossler, much like Montgomery, featured in our analysis last week and did enough to justify us continuing to follow him again. Along with elite driving distance, Hossler possess excellent putting and around the green stats. That could come in handy at a tournament where missing greens will be likely in the winds on offer this week.

Hossler sat 3rd last week after 2nd round last week before fading over the weekend. That was for the two rounds on the Pete Dye course, which was the course I would have been most worried about for him in that rotation. Torrey Pines has a much lower number of fairways hit, which plays in Hossler’s favour as he can gain an advantage with his driving distance.

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value

Jhonattan Vegas ranks as the best value on the board for me this week. The American Express was his first professional appearance since planned surgery, so shaking off some of the rust was always going to be a given. He shot a +1 in the 1st round to effectively take himself out of contention. He followed up with a 6-under round on the tougher Pete Dye setup and gained +2.09 SG: APP followed by a 3-under 3rd round.

He returns to a course where he finished 3rd on debut and his 4th ever PGA Tour start. He has since added an 11th and 18th. An 8th at Quail Hollow adds some other nice corresponding form. Vegas gains majority of his strokes on approach at over 150+ yards and gains on both driving distance and approach often. He also has a good history putting at this course, enough to suggest he is mispriced given his time away from the game.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship — Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory in Abu Dhabi

DP World Tour is back baby! After an epic 2022, the DP World Tour starts off with a bang at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. This is a Rolex Series event, one of just 5 such events in the year, which consists of some of the biggest tournaments on the calendar. That means inflated prize pools, additional ranking points, and a star-studded field from all over the globe.

We hit a massive 16 outright winners in 2022 and returned an ROI of +24% for the DP World Tour. Rating above a 20% ROI places our tips within the best tipsters on the market. The DP World Tour continues to offer an amazing value from both a betting and DFS stand-point.

The PGA Tour is becoming extremely saturated in terms of content with sharper players in DFS and keen eyes of bookmakers ensuring markets are tight. The DP World Tour still has plenty of softer spots and represents some of the best value available in golf. Let’s get into it!

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Course Analysis and Comp Courses

This will be the second year at Yas Links. This is worth noting, as prior course form before 2022 can be discounted. Last week’s Hero Cup tournament was also at former host Abu Dhabi GC. However, having some links to prior Middle East form is never a bad thing, as it is important to have comfort on these unique sturdier grass types and sandy soils.

Yas Links is a Kyle Phillips design. Although not sharing all the hallmarks of a true links course, the general concept and style of play is there. Ultra exposed to the elements with no protection from trees, tussock grass with uneven edges on bunkers, and undulating fairways and greens greet players this week.

It is worth noting that the 2nd round of last year’s tournament featured extremely high winds. It is well worth deep-diving (this is @deepdivegolf of course) a few of your favourite players performances at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship last year. If their performance was somewhat hindered following a bad 2nd round but they played well otherwise, that is worthy of some attention this week.

Comp Courses

There is very good correlation between other Kyle Phillips designed courses and the leaderboard from last year. This architect was involved in the remodelling of the famous Valderrama amongst an impressive portfolio of elite course design.

Most notably, the Qatar Masters is another Middle Eastern links-style course designed by Kyle Phillips. It should be a key guide entering this week. Kingsbarns, part of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, is another Phillips design. This tournament is also simply a great indicator of links form.

Bernadus, host of the Dutch Open, also displays strong links here (pun intended). This is another atypical course which has links style features although not in your traditional setting. Verdura GC presents another exposed links coastal course by Kyle Phillips. Finally, The Grove was host of the 2016 British Masters.

General links courses you can use for reference include Himmerland, Hillside Golf Club, and the Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews. Emirates GC provides another high profile Rolex series event, with a Middle East course just an hour away played at the same time of year.

Weather

There does look to be a tangible weather edge in play this week. The Middle East coastal courses suffer from very predictable onshore breeze, which arrives off the Persian Gulf nearly every afternoon around 2pm. This is something I am well aware of, having lived in Dubai for 8 years. Playing golf, I would often find myself struggling into the wind in the afternoon.

This week, Thursday actually looks to be windy all day. If anything, the wind looks to settle a little as the day goes on. Friday morning present some of the best conditions for the week before the consistent onshore breeze arrives in the afternoon. At such an exposed course like Yas Links, this can make a huge difference to the course’s scoring. As such, I am playing a Thursday PM/Friday AM stack almost exclusively.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Adrian Meronk
2.5pts E/W $34.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Eddie Pepperell
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Alexander Bjork
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33

Justin Harding
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Richard Mansell
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Ewen Ferguson
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Maximillian Kieffer
1pt E/W $111.00 (8 places, 1.5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Golfer Profiles

Adrian Meronk – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Favourite

Of those at the top of the board, several own legitimate claims to this title. Both Hatton and Noren possess the best chances to my eye. However, at odds of 11/1 and 18/1 it is hard to see any real value within those numbers. Ryan Fox always has to be in consideration, and even more so that his Alfred Dunhill Links Championship victory included a round at Kingsbarns.

So we end up just outside the top of the card with Adrian Meronk. Meronk finally had his breakthrough year in 2022. He won his debut DP World Tour title at the prestigious Irish Open. He then solidified the year by winning the Australian Open on a links style course played in the Melbourne sand-belt. Although a weaker field, he defeated Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Scott enroute to victory.

Meronk was well in contention at the 2022 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship before a mysterious WD. It has never been revealed the exact reason for the withdrawal, but he finished 4th the next week in Dubai so there is speculation this was COVID related. The strokes gained data indicates he was gaining across the board and he was sitting at -4, with eventual winning total being -10. An opening round containing 7 birdies is particularly eye catching.

https://twitter.com/AdrianMeronk/status/1614898124832604160?s=20&t=KpYGJm8wwWbBgzbR6KjG6g

Meronk is a resident of Dubai and complimenting the 4th place Dubai Desert Classic finish was a 7th at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. Further, he was well in contention at the Kyle Phillips designed Qatar Masters and Dutch Open, where he finished 3rd in both.

It is hard to see any presenting stronger credentials than Meronk, so he presents great value at the 33/1 on offer here.

Eddie Pepperell

I have grown slowly on Pepperell this week. However, the more I have looked at his claims the more I like the 75/1 on offer.

Pepperell has excellent form on Phillips designs. He is a winner at the Qatar Masters, alongside a 4th there in 2015. He also holds a 14th in his sole appearance at Bernadus Golf as well as at Verdura and has finished in the top 30 in 4 of his last 5 appearances at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Other links form is easy to come by. A 2nd and 11th at Hillside, a 4th and 18th at Himmerland, and a 2nd and 16th at the Torrance Course are the most notable. Sitting on the right side of the weather draw only adds more to his credentials as that edge solidifies.

Alexander Bjork – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Best Value

Alexander Bjork, like Pepperell, possesses the same abilities of accurate driving and excellent putting. That is always a recipe for success on links courses, so it is little surprise that his links form is obvious.

Bjork finished 20th here last year. He has played the Qatar Masters 3 times in his early career, making the cut on all three occasions with a best finish of 19th. He also finished 7th at Bernardus last year, 6th and 18th at Himmerland, and 20th at Hillside.

The other factor is Bjork’s excellent performances at neighbouring Dubai. His runner-up finish at the season ending DP World Tour Championship is the most eye-catching, finishing alongside Matthew Fitzpatrick and behind Collin Morikawa. He also holds a 12th and 17th in his other two starts on that course and a 6th and 20th at the Dubai Desert Classic for good measure.

Justin Harding

Reading the incoming form of now LIV Golf players is basically impossible. We get no stroke gained data at those events, at tournaments that didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website when the tour first started.

What we rely on here for Harding is his prior and correlated form. Harding finished an admirable 25th here last year, an even par 2nd round in the high winds proving difficult to overcome. Harding is another Qatar Masters winner, champion there in 2019 alongside a 5th last year in his two appearances. A 9th in his sole appearance at Bernadus sits alongside an impressive record at the Dubai Desert Classic of 7-37-27-4.

I’m also conscious these LIV golfers need to take advantage of their rare opportunities to earn OWGR points. This is an elevated Rolex Series event and carries some decent ranking points. Given there is currently a temproary stay on their ban from the DP World Tour, taking advantage of weeks such as this is vital for players like Harding.

Richard Mansell

Mansell began his 2nd year on the DP World Tour in fine fashion, with his first 3 top 5s on the main European tour. A record of 9th and 6th playing Bernardus is a good indication leading into this week.

Additionally, Mansell was leader throughout much of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022. In that title chase, he opened with a 66 at the Kyle Phillips designed Kingsbarns which included 7 birdies and just one bogey. He eventually finished 7th following a poor final round at St Andrews.

He will be better for that experience in a season that saw him improve greatly throughout the year. A maiden DP World Tour victory is certainly possible in 2023, and he possesses the upside to see that victory occur at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship this week.

Ewen Ferguson

It was an outstanding display from Ewen Ferguson in 2022. Having advanced through the Challenge Tour in 2019 to earn his card, he unfortunately lost this after an indifferent 2020. He earned his DP World Tour card back immediately in a 2021 season where he finished in the Top 5 in 23% of his starts. This included a start on the main tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where he finished 17th.

Having returned to the Tour proper, he proceeded to secure his maiden victory. Of course, this was at the 2022 Qatar Masters. That was a windy tournament on Sunday with another of our tips Adrian Meronk well in contention. He also managed a 2nd at the links course at Himmerland for good measure. Ferguson then went on to secure his 2nd victory shortly thereafter, again on a links style course in Ireland at the ISPS Handa World Invitiational.

Another great season beckons for Ferguson, and I expect to see him contend at some of these Rolex Series events as a potential future Ryder Cup player.

Maximillian Kieffer

Kieffer represents a positive EV bet this week following securing his maiden victory in 2022. Kieffer has long possessed the ball-striking required to win, but he has never met this with a spike putting week at the same event his irons are firing. He finally achieved this at the 2022 Czech Masters, in a very windy tournament.

Much like Mansell, Kieffer shot a 66 at Kingsbarns last year with 7 birdies and a sole bogey on the card. He has a 14th at the Qatar Masters as well as a 14th and 15th at Bernardus. All are Kyle Phillips designed.

A record in Abu Dhabi of 16-12-MC-22 were all at the other Abu Dhabi course, but at least are complimentary to being comfortable in the area. He also managed a 17th at the Dubai Desert Classic in his debut DP World Tour season, has a 17th at the AVIV Dubai Championship, and a 9th in 2022 at the Ras Al Khaimah Classic just an hour drive away.

Kieffer finished the season strong with an 8th in the star-studded Nedbank Golf Challenge and an 11th in Dubai at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. That should fill him with confidence arriving here this week and places him as one of the best value on the board this week.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 American Express Preview: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Taylor Montgomery can secure his maiden PGA Tour victory at the 2023 American Express golf tournament this week

What a start to 2023 we have had! Starting the Sentry Tournament of Champions, we tipped winner Rahm in-play as well as a top 3 finish from Max Homa. We certainly carried on that hot streak at the Sony Open! Long may that continue this week at the 2023 American Express.

Our Sony Open best value play was David Lipsky, who finished 4th, tipped at 150/1 and just 3% owned for DFS purposes. Lipsky was a great chance to win, leading the tournament throughout the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. Andrew Putnam also finished 4th with an outstanding putting performance.

Across these tournaments, that means we are already +65.7 points and have an ROI of 131.4%! Will we finish at that figure by the end of the year? No. Being over 20% ROI across both tours last season already places our picks within the top echelon of the best tipsters on the market. However, it is certainly a lovely figure to read!

Especially considering how difficult these first few events of the year can be, with little to indicate what golfers may have improved (or regressed) over the past two months. And it doesn’t get any easier this week as course rotation season and the 2023 American Express golf tournament, which has built a reputation for throwing up some of the longest odds for winners in previous seasons. Let’s get into it.

2023 American Express Course Analysis and Comp Courses

The 2023 American Express utilises a three course rotation. La Quinta, Nicklaus Stadium Course, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course have featured has hosts at this tournament since 2016. One round is played at each course, before a 54 hole cut is made and a final round played at the Pete Dye course.

La Quinta presents as the easiest test of the three. Driving distance is not as much a factor here as the other two courses. That is mainly due to the ridiculously short nature of a few of these holes. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at a mediocre 454 and 469 yards. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for the vast majority of the field. Essentially, expect low scoring and a wedge then putt birdie-fest.

Driving distance does become a factor at the other two courses for the 2023 American Express. With three rounds played across these courses, this is worthy of consideration. Certainly, we shouldn’t expect golfers to be ripping driver on every hole. But, having access to extra distance is certainly beneficial in spots this week. This is especially true on the par 5s, which are vital for scoring, and some drivable par 4s.

Around the green play will also become a factor at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. Most notably, and with greatest hilarity, on the 18th hole bunker:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-TU5SDd3OI

Key factors to consider at the 2023 American Express

The ideal combination for golfers is driving distance, approach play with wedges or long irons for the par 5s, and putting. I’m not factoring in SG: ATG in any great amounts, but it is a nice addition to have

Course history can be discounted slightly this week. Of course, prior course history is always nice to have. It is worth noting, though, that this tournament has shown as one of the lowest correlations between prior course form as a predictive factor for success. Therefore, if a golfer has missed a few cuts here, I’m not too disturbed in what is an extremely volatile tournament.

What does warrant some consideration is that this is a Pro-Am for the first three rounds. Some golfers do just inherently struggle at these events, which result in slower pace of play due to being paired with amateurs. It is worth considering prior performance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Farmers Insurance Open for the 2023 American Express. This combines both the Pro-Am element, but are also two other tournaments in the California region. Further, they also have Bermuda overseeded with Poa Annua on their greens so should be a reasonable guide for potential putting performance.

Weather

There is certainly a chance of a weather edge developing at a tournament such as this. However, actually determining who will benefit is very difficult.

All golfers will tee off within a two hour window across the three courses on offer. Most likely this would be that playing one a particular course on a particular day may yield an advantage.

Thursday morning looks the calmest conditions of the week and Friday looks to have the highest winds of the first three days. My best guess would be starting on La Quinta is preferable. This should allow golfers to take advantage of the easiest course. It also has the added benefit of meaning golfers will play the Pete Dye Stadium Course twice in a row, on both Saturday and final round Sunday.

My second favourite would be facing the sterner test of the Pete Dye Stadium Course in the calm Thursday conditions. This would then see the easiest course La Quinta on the Friday.

For those starting on the Nicklaus Stadium Course Thursday, they would then end up on the toughest Pete Dye Stadium Course on Friday. This would be my least favoured rotation of the three. Again, this is mostly speculation and we will only know the true answer after the conclusion of the tournament.

2023 American Express tee-times can be found here: https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/the-american-express/tee-times.html

2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Taylor Montgomery
2.5pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Aaron Wise
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Jason Day
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Wyndham Clark
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Dean Burmester
1pt E/W $111.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.25

Beau Hossler
0.5pt E/W $251.00 (8 places, 1.5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.50

Golfer Profiles

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 American Express favourite

In his rookie season, Taylor Montgomery has announced himself in a big way. In 8 starts, Montgomery has already finished in the top 15 on 7 occasions.

This success has come on a huge variety of courses and that should hold him in excellent stead for the course rotation this week. Whether the course be long, short, wide, or narrow: Taylor Montgomery has found a way to get to the top end of the leaderboard.

We should have probably predicted such a preeminent arrival given his consistency on the Korn Ferry Tour. Since January 2022, Montgomery has played 26 professional tournaments and finished in the top 15 in 20 of them. He actually began that run at a PGA Tour event. Montgomery received a sponsor exemption for the Farmers Insurance Open and duly finished 11th. It was his second ever PGA Tour start.

Another California based Pro-Am, being held at a similar time of year, and having the same greens should prove useful as a guide this week. A 3rd at the Fortinet Championship, played at Silverado Resort & Spa in the Napa Valley, also doesn’t hurt. Having already found his feet on tour immediately, he arrives at a desert course where this UNLV product and Nevada native should find instant comfort.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sJXs53JHw

Montgomery possess plenty of strength to attack those par 5s and drivable par 4s. At the Farmers, he was reaching the 621 yard par 5 in two and he has had another year gaining distance.

For a golfer possessing that power, he has also established himself as a golfer with a remarkable short-game. He ranks as the 2nd in this field for SG: Putting over the last 6 months and is handy around the greens to boot. That combination will hopefully again see him in contention come Sunday.

Aaron Wise

The well-rounded game of Aaron Wise should suit at the 2023 American Express, in an area just an hour away from where he first learned the game.

Raised in neighbouring Riverside CA, it is unlikely Wise would have dreamed he would be playing so close to home ranked as the 35th best golfer in the world. Everything in Wise’s 2022 season suggests he could finish much higher than that rank by year end.

It seems the biggest factor putting people off Wise this week is that he has missed three cuts here. However, we know that prior course form is not a great factor at this event.

And it is hard to suggest that Wise has an absolute distaste for this setup. Wise finished 34th here on debut, before joining the Korn Ferry Tour, and followed up with a 17th the year after. Further, he holds a 15th at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finishes of a 2nd, 18th, and 9th at Quail Hollow which should have some correlation to two of the three courses here.

Wise’s meteoric rise comes off tangible improvements both with his approach play as well as the putter. He possess plenty of distance off the tee and sits within the top 15 in this field for both SG: ATG and SG: PUTT over the last three months. In a year where he possesses an outside touch of making a Ryder Cup debut, a strong start to the season at the 2023 American Express would be a great starting point.

Jason Day

Towards the end of the 2022 season, Jason Day really began to show signs of resurgence. The fall was great from the lofty heights of World Number 1 in 2017 to a lowly 175th in September 2022.

That was tempered somewhat by two victories in 2018. Notably, they came at Quail Hollow and a 2nd time winning the Farmers Insurance Open, an event he also holds 5 Top 20s. He has also finished 11th or better in 8 of his last 10 appearances at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so he should have no trouble with the rotational Pro-Am format.

All of those performances should be good indicators here, at an event he has played just once. That appearance was last year and saw a made cut, a 75 in his 2nd round preventing him finishing any higher up on a condensed leaderboard.

What that tournament did provide were the first inklings that his game may be beginning to return. He finished 3rd at the Farmers the very next week. Throughout the year, his approach play began to return in what is one of the best indicators for Day’s performances.

He now arrives at the 2023 American Express sitting 17th for SG: Total and 6th for SG: APP over the last 6 months. Included in those stats is an 8th place at the Shriners Children’s Open on another desert resort course. It is inevitable he will end up in contention again soon should this upward trajectory continue, and it may well be this week.

Wyndham Clark

Wyndham Clark is another golf I have earmarked for a potentially big year in 2023. Based on SG metrics, Data Golf currently rank Clark as 63rd in the world versus a current OWGR of 160th. That is always an indicator of a player “overdue” for a strong performance.

Clark’s aggression and distance are excellent assets to have in the arsenal. He has also displayed the ability to show restraint when needed. This includes in his most recent sighting when 10th at the RSM Classic. The fact this is then matched with proven ability both ATG and with the putter and some much improved iron play towards the end of 2022 shows promising signs.

Given that, it is little surprise that Clark achieved his first ever PGA Tour Top 20 here in 2019. He has since followed that up with a 13th in last year’s iteration. Arriving here as a golfer on the improve, I hold high hopes for his chances this week.

Dean Burmester

Dean Burmester presents great value this week at triple figure odds, when fair pricing would have him more in the 95/1 range.

2022 was a big year for Burmy. He finished 10th at the Scottish Open and 11th at the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews, two of the strongest fields of the year. Burmester then earnt his PGA Tour card, finishing in the top 5 in 2 of the 3 Korn Ferry Tour playoff events. He then announced himself on the PGA Tour by immediately finishing 4th.

The 56th ranked golfer in the world has extreme power off the tee. He combines that with excellent touch around the greens and the ability to spike with both his irons and putter. He arrives here ranking 28th SG: Total, 27th SG: OTT, and 2nd for SG: ATG. His result this week will come down to his iron play continuing to improve and getting hot with the putter. It’s something he has managed to do previously in 9 professional victories of his career thus far.

Beau Hossler – Your 2023 American Express best value

Raised in Orange County CA, Beau Hossler presents as the best value on the board this week.

Hossler had a 3rd at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has finished 9th at the Farmers in 2020. He did manage to finish 20th in this tournament in 2018 during his rookie PGA Tour season. Since then, he has struggled to match all elements of his game at the right time here. He has gained as many as 8 strokes putting and 10 strokes on approach on this course.

That volatility can be somewhat expected at an event coming directly after the Christmas break played across multiple courses. The simple fact that he has shown he can spike with both is what interests me here.

He arrives here ranking 1st for SG: Putt over the last 3 months and 7th in that same metric over 12 months. Ranking 44th for SG: ATG could also prove an asset on the Pete Dye Stadium Course rounds. Those abilities, alongside his excellent driving distance, is a perfect combination for low scoring. Should we marry them all together, he could surprise a few with a ceiling performance at the 2023 American Express.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Sony Open Preview: Everything you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips Russell Henley — Russell Henley can secure another victory at the 2023 Sony Open

Ladies and gentlemen, we are back in Hawaii for the second week of the PGA Tour season for 2023 and the first full field event for the year! Bring back the cut sweat and deep-dives! This is your 2023 Sony Open Preview.

A great start to the year for us at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. We tipped the winner Jon Rahm live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. Rahm was standing in the fairway on the par 5 15th with just 157 yards in for his second shot. For Rahm, that is just a pitching wedge and was a great opportunity for a birdie if not an eagle. Morikawa meanwhile had found the bunker on 14. He had also seen his once 9 shot lead crumble into just 3 shots. We saw value at the $9.50 on offer. Rahm indeed made eagle, Morikawa made birdie, and we cash 5 units @ $9.50.

We also cash in a Top 5 on Max Homa with 1 unit @ $7.60. Tipped at 33/1 pre-tournament, Homa made a sluggish start. Two rounds of 3-under 70 saw him languishing in the bottom third of the field. However, a 10-under 63 followed by a 7-under 66 saw him jump into 3rd place.

This week, the tour hops over to Honolulu for the Sony Open. This historic event has attracted a reasonably strong field headlined by Sungjae I’m, Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and rising prodigy Tom Kim. Let’s get into it!

2023 Sony Open Course Analysis

Waialae Country Club plays host this week in a substantially different test to what golfers faced last week. Whereas Planatation presented wide open fairways with non-existent rough, Waialae presents a narrow and tricky course.

Multiple doglegs and narrow fairways and overhanging trees which must be avoided to open up access to the greens. It should come as no surprise that driving accuracy is at a premium. In fact, this course ranks within the top 5 where driving accuracy is a predictive factor.

It is also worth noting that the rough has been allowed to grow out to 3 inches from just 2.25 inches last year. That may not sound overly imposing but bear in mind we are dealing with Bermuda grass here. Bermuda rough can really grab onto the club face as well as produce flyer lies. In fact, 3 inches is the longest the tour allows Bermuda rough. Only two other tournaments last year had 3-inch Bermuda rough, the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. You want to put even more emphasis on driving accuracy this week compared to previous iterations of the tournament.

Alongside driving accuracy, SG: ATG is a far more predictive factor than at other courses. Precisely why this may be is somewhat a mystery. Most likely is that Hawaiian tradewinds are one of the main defences to this course. The other being that when puns are tucked away on these relatively large greens getting up and down becomes a premium.

Comparison Courses and 2023 Sony Open Course Form

We are somewhat fortunate this week. It can be really tricky to predict what golfers are playing well after the New Year break. Many have not played competitively since the RSM Classic some 55 days ago.

To our benefit, Waialae has the 2nd highest correlation between prior performance and future success. The only course more correlated is Augusta National. This is perhaps highlighted best by the fact that in 2013 Russell Henley was the first debutant to win this event since its inception in 1965. You want to heavily consider prior form at this course over any recent performances.

There are also heavy correlations between El Cameleon and Waialae Country Club. In 15 iterations of the Mayakoba Championship, 6 have also won the Sony Open. Henley was the most recent to affirm this link. He completed this double with his recent victory in November complimenting the aforementioned win here in 2013. Further, he was runner-up when just missing out to Matsuyama in a play-off here last year.

Other courses with correlation are the RBC Heritage and Sea Island Golf Club. Both are coastal course with wind exposure. They are also positional golf courses, where finding the short grass is further emphasised with wanting to find the correct side of the fairway. There are also tentative links with Colonial Country Club.

Weather for the 2023 Sony Open

A slight advantage looks to have developed for those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM this week.

High winds were experienced on course on Wednesday. Thursday morning now looks likely to suffer from those high winds. This is looking to settle from 1pm onwards, with Friday morning also looking calmer than Friday afternoon.

I have the current advantage at approximately 0.5 strokes on average. As such, this should not be the sole factor in your decision making. However, if you’re struggling to decide between two golfers, you should favour the golfer teeing it up Thursday afternoon.

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley

2.5pts E/W $26.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)

Andrew Putnam

1pt E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.30

Denny McCarthy

1pt E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Aaron Rai

1pt E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

David Lipsky

1pt E/W $151.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $6.00

David Lingmerth

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
2pts Top 40 $3.00

Zac Blair

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60

Kazuki Higa

0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
4pts Top 40 $3.40

Golfer Profiles

Russell Henley – Your 2023 Sony Open favourite

Given the above, it should be no surprise that Henley headlines our tips. Henley has extremely strong links to Waialae. Prior course form including a win and a somewhat disappointing runner-up finish in the 2022 playoff. The November 6th victory should fill him with confidence arriving at a course that he has previously played so well at.

I’m not a huge fan of trends, but for what it is worth 5 of the last 6 winners of this event have competed the week prior at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This is somewhat unsurprising, has by its own definition the Sentry comprises some of the best players on tour. More noteworthy for me was that Henley finished in the Top 5 for SG: APP last week and 3rd for Driving Accuracy. That ball-striking in a high-class field is too difficult to ignore.

You can read more of Henley’s love for Waialae in this recent interview here.

As always with Henley, the result will come down to his putter. Anything at field average or better should see him towards the top of the leaderboard for the 2023 Sony Open.

Andrew Putnam

Putnam enjoyed a solid finish to 2022. He followed up of 5th and 23rd in the first two Fed Ex Cup Playoff events with a 12th in Las Vegas and a 2nd in a high quality ZOZO Championship field (an event that last year’s Sony Open winner Matsuyama won in the 2022 season).

Putnam holds a 2nd here from 2019, so ticks the prior course form box. He arrives here a much-improved golfer to 3 years ago.

Denny McCarthy

Having opened at odds of 45/1, Denny has drifted to 60/1. Seemingly, this is only due to money flowing to players like Harman, Poston, and Kuchar near him in the market.

The highly regarded putter is also very accurate off the tee. A recent 6th place at the Bermuda Championship hints at correlated tropical and exposed course form. He holds a 15th at the Mayakoba last year, a 10th and 8th at the RSM Classic, and 13th at the RBC Heritage.

Denny’s approach game has been his weakest aspect since joining the PGA Tour in 2018. 2022 was his first year where his SG: APP was at PGA Tour average. His start to 2023 has seen him gain on approach across his first 7 events and suggests an improving golfer that may go well at the 2023 Sony Open.

Aaron Rai

The talented Englishman has yet to make much of a mark since hopping the ditch to join the PGA Tour. Rai began his debut DP World Tour season with two victories and nine Top 20 finishes. He followed this up with further wins in 2019 and 2020. You would have to think he would be nearing double digit wins had he remained on the easier DP World Tour. However, with a Top 10 finish on the PGA Tour often surpassing the winner’s prize in European events, you can understand the decision.

Rai’s game does continue to show signs of improvement. He has been above PGA Tour average for SG: APP for the last three seasons. Most importantly, he is now also gaining with the putter and in SG: ATG. He has gained in Driving Accuracy on the Tour average at a rate of double digits at most seasons he has played.

A 15th at Mayakoba in 2022 and a 16th at the RSM Classic are further links to here. A 2022 missed cut at his sole appearance here can be somewhat forgiven by the fact it is so hard to tell where a player’s game is at following the off-season. The credentials and profile are there, and at triple figure odds present value for a golfer who should be priced at 80/1 or shorter.

David Lipsky – Your 2023 Sony Open best value

Lipsky presents as one of the best values on the board in my models, currently available at 150/1 when his fair pricing should be in the realm of just 100/1.

A 2022 missed cut can again be somewhat forgiven considering it was his 6th missed cut in a row during a terrible stretch of form. He has been much improved of late with a 22nd at Houston Open and a Top 10 finish at the Mayakoba in November. A 6th at the Mexico Open and 7th at the Corales Puntacana further highlight positive tropical course form.

Lipsky gains on driving accuracy, approach, and ATG in an ideal recipe for this venue. His performance, much like Henley, will come down to his performance with the putter this week.

David Lingmerth

Lingmerth makes his first appearance here since 2017, at a course he finished 13th in 2016. He risked losing his tour card towards the end of last year, where a comprehensive victory in the Korn Ferry Tour playoff event could well stoke the fire.

A 5th at Colonial provides an indication heading into the Sony Open. Further, a fantastic 8th place at the Mayakoba in November and a 10th at the RSM Classic confirm an obvious choice to tee it up this week. The afternoon tee-time Thursday is a further positive for a golfer available at 200/1.

Zac Blair

Having opened at a extremely overpriced 300/1, Blair continues to present value as an outside chance at the 200/1 still on offer.

Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July last year, and immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to the injury, Blair had a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. He also holds a 3rd and 6th placed finish around Waialae in 2015 and 2016. Now back to full health, he is worth a flyer at long odds for what would be an emotional comeback victory.

Kazuki Higa

Finally, we wind up our picks with the up-and-coming Japanese star Kazuki Higa. Higa won a notable four times on the Japan Golf Tour in 2022. He already proved last year he can jump across to the higher tours, when he played the BMW International Open and immediately finished 10th.

The most recent of those four victories was also the most impressive. The Dunlop Phoenix Tournament always attracts a talented international field. When winning the 2022 event, Higa defeated some big names. That included this week’s favourite Tom Kim, LIV Golf rumoured recruit Mito Pereira, World Ranked top 50 Scott Vincent, Aaron Wise, and Corey Conners.

Higa looks destined to advance to the PGA Tour or DP World Tour shortly. A high finish this week would go a long way to accelerating that progression and at 300/1 he is well worth consideration.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

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