FanDuel

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18

It is the final week of the regular season and we have two games on Saturday and then a normal 13 game slate on Sunday, so there is a ton of football to get to. While this article will continue into the postseason, I just want to say thank you to anyone and everyone that has read this beast all year long. I know it can be a lot to read and I truly appreciate taking time out of your schedules to give it a look. Let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18 and see if we can replicate the success of Week 17, which was filled with monster green screens!

Saturday Slate

Chiefs at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Chiefs -10.5)

Chiefs (Clinched, outside shot at #1 seed)

QB – It will always feel scary to fade Patrick Mahomes on such a short slate because he has the highest ceiling of anyone. While others can get close, Mahomes is sixth in red-zone attempts, sixth in pass yards, 10th in air yards, and third in touchdowns. Denver is down to 20th in DVOA against the pass and will be missing arguably their best corner as well, a bad sign for that defense. Mahomes is fifth in points per game and could be set to explode as the Chiefs must win this game to have any hope at the #1 seed. 

RB – If Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains out, Darrell Williams is going to be extremely popular on this slate. If it seems like Williams is having the more productive season, it’s likely because of the touchdowns. CEH averages slightly more rushing yards per carry and but Williams has a 14-2 lead in attempts inside the five. Regardless of how you feel about CEH, that’s a major hit to his ceiling if he’s active and Williams averages almost 10 yards per reception as well. Denver is allowing 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground but KC still has the motivation to play. We’ll see what the week brings in practice. 

Update – CEH is out for this game

WR – The past two weeks it has been anyone but Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs receiving corps, as he’s totaled just 14.1 DraftKings points while Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle have combined for four touchdowns and over 200 yards. Last week, Hill played his normal 85% of snaps and had 10 targets so there’s not much of a reason to think that the past two weeks have been anything but a weird blip on the radar. When he’s in the slot (almost 38% of the time), Kyle Fuller should be there and has allowed a 111.3 passer rating and 14.0 YPR. With Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby out from this secondary, the matchup is a lot easier. Hardman has the highest target share among the secondary receivers at 12.1% and is in play for large-field GPP. 

TE – Travis Kelce is likely to be very popular on this slate because A. he’s Travis Kelce and B. the drop from him to almost any other option could be steep. We’re going to get as much of a full workload as possible and Kelce was very close to having a two touchdown game last week, which would have changed his box score by an awful lot. He’s still second among tight ends in receptions, yards, points per game, unrealized air yards, and he’s tied for the lead with nine touchdowns. Denver has only allowed one score on the season to the position, but we’ll need to see if there are any other viable alternatives on this slate. 

D/ST – The Chiefs are likely to be the highest-rostered defense on this slate and I’m not here to argue. They struggled last week but the Denver offense is not the same and they have a 26% pressure rate while Denver has allowed the second-highest pressure rate on the season. Being ranked 24th in total DVOA isn’t accurate for how they’ve been playing and they have forced the third-most turnovers on the year. 

Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Williams, D/ST, Hardman

Broncos 

QB – In his two starts, Drew Lock has combined for 47 pass attempts and that right there says an awful lot. The good news is he can hit the deep ball to some extent and has a completion of at least 40 yards in each game and he hasn’t turned the ball over, but 15 DraftKings points would almost surely be the lowest score among the four options. If you play Lock, you have to hope he gets some garbage time, scores over 20 DK, and you get all the skill positions right. 

RB – When you’re looking at game logs, don’t forget that Javonte Williams faced the Chiefs the first time without Melvin Gordon. It would be pretty impressive for him to score 32 DraftKings points again and the split continues for the backfield. Last week saw MG3 take 13 touches while Williams had 15 and Gordon generated 71 scrimmage yards to 32 for Williams. Kansas City is 28th in yards per attempt allowed and with a near 50/50 split, it’s hard to get behind either player just like the rest of the season when they were both healthy. The Chiefs have also played better on defense because Joe Burrow isn’t on the other side in this game. 

WR – Denver will have all three receivers back in this game with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick returning to the lineup. Courtland Sutton was about the only receiver active last week but only managed nine DraftKings points and if Lock continues to not throw the ball very often, there just isn’t much to go around here. Jeudy and Sutton do not have statistically easy matchups and L’Jarius Sneed plays a good deal of slot corner for KC and he’s allowed 1.51 points per target while Charvarius Ward has the fifth-best catch rate allowed at 45.8% across 59 targets. Rashad Fenton would likely square off against Patrick and he’s only allowed 1.37 points per target. In all, nobody has a great matchup and this would be a salary-saving move, but I’ll bet one is more popular in the next game. 

TE – We finally got a ceiling game for Noah Fant and it only took the Broncos missing two of their top three receivers, so keep that in mind when considering his salary. If he’s out, the punt of Albert Okwuegbunam becomes much more viable, since he’s nearly minimum salary. Fant is fifth in receptions but just 10th in yards and he’s 25th in yards per reception, which is suboptimal. He’s not one of my primary targets but that could change given the state of the position on this two-gamer. 

D/ST – I can’t advocate playing Denver as they could be without star corner Patrick Surtain and others this week, and the Chiefs have their backs against the wall as far as seeding and hoping for a bye week. 

Targets – Jeudy, Williams, Sutton, Gordon, Fant, Patrick 

Cowboys at Eagles, O/U of 43.5 (Cowboys -5)

Cowboys (Clinched NFC East)

Note – The Cowboys seem like they are going to play starters, and that honestly makes me sense. They may not be able to move in the standings but the offense needs some mojo and they lost a key receiver for the year. Unless something changes, I think we approach it as a normal game.

QB – For as bad as it seemed Dak Prescott played last week, he still scored 24 DraftKings points and is in theory a pivot to Mahomes. Three passing touchdowns end to go a long way and he’s up to eighth in passing touchdowns at the year at 32. Dak is just 14th in points per dropback but he’s seventh in attempts and red-zone attempts, which helps equal things out. He’s also top 10 in passing yards but the Chiefs defense has mostly been better, past last week. They are 22nd in DVOA on the season but that’s not accurate as of late, so Dak has some risk to him. 

RB – Short of injury, I never thought we’d see Ezekiel Elliott finish at just four DraftKings points but he had just 10 touches last week. His rough season leaves him in a weird spot because on a short slate, he’s one of the few players that has multi-touchdown upside. He’s also averaging just 57.2 rushing yards per game despite ranking sixth in carries on the season. Maybe it’s a bit unfair, but Zeke has fewer rushing yards than Derrick Henry with double the amount of games played. Philly has been good against the run this year ranking in the top half of the league in rush yards allowed to backs and top-five in yards allowed per attempt. I don’t think I’ll play Zeke on this slate and with him being active, Tony Pollard is not a strong option either. 

WR – It’s a little early in the week to know for sure but I’m betting Cedrick Wilson will be among the most popular players on the slate. He played 46.9% of the snaps after Michael Gallup was injured last week and saw six targets, including two in the red zone. He’s going to be a large part of the offense moving forward and at $4,200, he’s wildly too cheap. It was also nice to see CeeDee Lamb play 87% of the snaps last week (finally) and that concern should be out the window with Gallup on the shelf Lamb should be on the field almost at all times and why he got just four targets last week is incredible. He should avoid Darius Slay, which would be a nice bonus. Slay would mostly be on Amari Cooper and he’s only allowed 1.28 points per target in the year. With the salaried being so close, I would play Lamb and it will be interesting to see if one of those two gave some leverage away from Wilson. 

TE – One of the reasons I’m not looking at Fant is because we have two strong options in this game, potentially. I also said “could” when I said the drop from Kelce to the next tight end could be steep because Dalton Schultz has a shot at a big game here. With Gallup out of the offense, Schultz continued to see massive targets and he’s seen eight, nine, and 10 in the past three weeks. That is serious volume, as in tied for seventh in the league across that span. On top of that, Philly has allowed the most receptions against tight ends this year and the second-most touchdowns, so this is a great matchup all the way around. 

D/ST – Micah Parsons is on the Covid list so I want to see his status before we can make a decision. I really don’t mind them as a pivot as they are first in total DVOA and they are tied for the most turnovers forced. The pressure rate is over 27% and they are seventh in points allowed per game. If they are half the ownership of the Chiefs, that’s an easy way to get different. 

Update – Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown are out, opening up this secondary even more.

Targets – Wilson, Schultz, Lamb, Dak, Zeke, Cooper

Eagles (Clinched playoffs, cannot win Division)

Note – The Eagles still have a bunch of players on the Covid list that we’ll need some resolution to before kickoff of the first game. As of now, center Jason Kelce is the only one activated.

QB – Dallas is such a weird matchup because they are first in DVOA against the pass but they’ve allowed 6.7 yards per attempt, 20th in the league. They can give up yards in bunches but they force turnovers like almost no other team. Jalen Hurts is questionable as of now and the Eagles could wind up sitting him, so we need more information before we decide. Gardner Minshew would likely get some love if he starts, but just remember that the Jets are not the same defense as the Cowboys. 

RB – The game being on Saturday makes the turnaround quicker and that could have negative effects on Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. They are in protocols as of Monday with time to be active for Saturday but it’s not a guarantee. Miles Sanders is all but ruled out so Kenneth Gainwell could wind up being the last man standing in this spot. If everyone is active, Howard could be a very interesting GPP option because of everyone likely flocks to Scott. He scored twice but the gap in everything else was much closer than the game log suggests. Scott has Howard in the passing game, hands down. The running game was closer as Scott led 14-11 in carries, 41% to 32% in snaps, 4-3 in red-zone attempts, and 3-2 in carries inside the five. If Howards gets the two scores, things are way different and this would be deeper GPP only. That’s also pending the health of the backfield. 

Update- Gainwell and Jason Huntley as potentially the backs that would handle the bulk of the work.

WR – It always looks like Devonta Smith should be a better option than he turns out to be even though he’s 12th in air yards among receivers seventh in aDOT. Part of the issue is he’s also 10th in unrealized air yards and he’s only been targeted in the red zone a total of eight times this year, which is good for 55th. Smith is also only 35th in points per game and has found the paint just five times, while the matchup is a mixed bag. Trevon Diggs has made a crazy amount of splash plays this year but he’s been on the receiving end of a ton as well. He’s up to a 19.0 YPR, a 112.1 passer rating, and 2.01 points per target. The potential for Smith is certainly there but so is the volatility. We’ll see who’s active for this game on each side before dipping into Quez Watkins or anyone else. 

TE – Provided Dallas Goedert can be active for this game, he’s plenty appealing as well. Goedert is up to fifth in receiving yards, a bit of a surprise at this juncture. It follows that Goedert is leading the position in yards per target and yards run per route, which I’m betting we could have made a lot of money on in preseason had we predicted that. The 18.6% target share is good for 10th in the league among his position and Dallas is just average at defending the tight end. Let’s see if he can clear protocols for this before looking too far in his direction, and I would not be interested in a backup option. 

D/ST – Philly has defensive players in the protocols and may sit some of their starters, so we’ll circle back. With how poorly the Dallas offense has been playing, I could get on board. The issues just come down to having just 28 sacks and 16 turnovers forced on the season. 

Targets – TBD by the Covid situation

Sunday Main Slate

Packers at Lions, O/U of 45 (Packers -3.5)

Packers (Clinched #1 Seed in NFC)

QB – According to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers and the other starters are going to play in this game but I have a really hard time believing that. Rodgers is the league MVP (despite what some clown writer seems to think) and there is nothing to gain here. There is only risk in playing Rodgers for more than a series or two and I think Green Bay could score quick and yank them. On top of that, Rodgers is pushing $8,000 and that starts to get a little rich for a quarterback who doesn’t have any rushing upside. You need at least three touchdowns and over 250 yards to make this work and I can’t see why Rodgers would get there. 

Note – The fact the Packers are ONLY 3.5 point favorites should be a giant red flag about how much Vegas expects them to play.

RB – The smart money here would be on the Packers sitting Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. We saw Patrick Taylor take six carries in the back-half of the fourth quarter last week and we have to pay attention to him at the minimum salary if that’s the case. Now the caveat here is he’s not likely to play with the first-team offense but the Detroit defense is Swiss cheese and is 29th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 22nd in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – I can sit here and tell you that Davante Adams is second in targets, first in target share, second n receptions, and third in yards and all of that would be true. It’s also true that the Detroit defense has about a 0.01% chance of stopping him if he plays the entire game, but that’s the biggest hangup. If he’s out early, $9,400 will kill you. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard would be in play to some extent, but they could sit early and/or be dealing with Jordan Love at quarterback. I know there hasn’t been a ton of metrics used for Green Bay, but you simply can’t play them in anything other than GPP. Despite the claims of playing the starters, this feels like a large trap and it gets treated like a preseason game. 

TE – Josiah Deguara is the TE1 in the offense, but that hasn’t amounted to much outside of a random touchdown, so we don’t need to look that closely here. We’re talking about a target share of just 5.7%. 

D/ST – Even if Green Bay isn’t playing every starter, the Lions offense isn’t the scariest unit around. I don’t think we need to pay this price but they do have 38 sacks and 26 turnovers forced with a pressure rate over 24%. Only seven teams have allowed fewer points per game and the Pack is 19th in overall DVOA. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Adams, D/ST, Rodgers, maybe one of the backs but I’m treading very lightly here 

Lions 

QB – The Lions say that Tim Boyle is the presumed starter again this week and he did garbage time his way to 18.9 DraftKings points last week. If the Packers truly play their starters, it’s a poor matchup as they are 12th in DVOA against the pass, third in yards allowed per attempt, and eighth in completion rate allowed. Boyle looks like a very poor option in points per dropback, where he would rank in the 30’s across a full season so I think we can pass here. 

Update – Goff is questionable after being limited in all practice all week, but this isn’t a situation I’m chasing.

RB – I think we can safely run away from the backfield now that Detroit has shown their hands in that they will not play D’Andre Swift meaningful snaps at the end of the year. I don’t blame them, but it would have been nice to know after he was a full practice all last week. Jamaal Williams took all the work but with 11 carries and 50% of the snaps but I wonder if he gets iced out as well. They know full well what Williams can and can’t do and maybe Craig Reynolds gets more work. Either way, this isn’t the backfield that I’m looking to get into this week. 

WR – I didn’t think we’d get to a point where Amon-Ra St. Brown would be $6,800 but it’s hard to say the salary isn’t deserved. In the past five weeks, he’s third in the league in targets and only Cooper Kupp has more PPR points among receivers. He’s clearly leading the Lions in the time at a 33.3% target share and he’s been in double-digits in every game for five straight weeks while never dipping below 15.3 DraftKings points. With little other threats in this offense, there’s no reason to thank anything changes this week and now he’s proven he can get it down regardless of the quarterback. St. Brown is a perfectly fine option no matter the format and if the Packers play the starters as they claim, Chandon Sullivan is in the slot with 1.98 points per target allowed. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance in the Detroit offense. 

D/ST – You can’t really run the risk that Green Bay is telling the truth about playing starters because if they do, this defense can’t hang with them. They rank 30th in total DVOA and points per game allowed while being tied for the second-fewest sacks this year. 

Cash – St. Brown

GPP – None past St. Brown 

Colts at Jaguars, O/U of 44 (Colts -15.5)

Colts (Win and In)

QB – Carson Wentz better get his game together because he played very poorly last week, not completing 60% of his passes and throwing one of the luckier touchdowns of the season. Past the Jaguars ranking 32nd in DVOA against the pass and is the only team giving up a 70% completion rate, there’s not a lot to love for Wentz from the data. He’s average across the board at 18th in deep attempts, 15th in points per dropback, 18th in points per game, 18th in yards, and just 27th in true completion rate. We should fully expect the Colts to run a lot in this one, as they did last week and Wentz doesn’t even have a great floor. 

RB – Much like another fantasy elite player on this slate, Jonathan Taylor is the perfect mix of a great player who needs a victory and gets an incredible spot. The Jaguars are in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed to backs with the third-most rushing touchdowns and 15th in yards per attempt allowed. Taylor leads the league in carries and is the only player with over 300 on the year at 317. In addition, he has 83 red-zone attempts and the next closest is Dalvin Cook at 45. That is ridiculous, Taylor is almost lapping the field. With potential big values with teams resting players, it’s not crazy to attempt builds with Taylor and Cooper Kupp, which we’ll find along the way. 

WR – If we’re on the train of JT is going to get all the work he can handle, Michael Pittman should really be the only Colts receiver that we look at. Past T.Y. Hilton getting the super lucky touchdown, nobody did much of anything last week as Wentz struggled to get it going. Pittman is in the top 10 in yards, receptions, target share, targets, and yards run per route but he’s 26th in points per game. That has a lot to do with just five touchdowns and the inconsistency of Wentz along with the run game taking the bulk of the stats. Still, it is a soft matchup and he could see some of Tyson Campbell and Shaquill Griffin. While Griffin is the better corner, both have allowed at least 1.64 points per target and a passer rating over 100 on the year. 

TE – Jack Doyle was active last week but played 38% of the snaps and was not targeted. Mo Alie-Cox played 58% of the snaps and was targeted five times, but it feels awfully thin to go down this road. Alie-Cox has just an 8.9% target share on the season and the only potential saving grace is he’s third in red-zone targets on the team but 21st among tight ends. 

D/ST – Other than the salary, the Colts are a phenomenal play. They are tied for the most takeaways in the league, they’re in the top 12 in points allowed per game, and they’re seventh in total DVOA. Jacksonville has 29 turnovers, the most in the league, and has allowed 31 sacks. 

Cash – Taylor, Pittman

GPP – D/ST, Wentz

Jaguars

QB – I’m about to start calling Trevor Lawrence “X-Files” because I want to believe. Lawrence has to be better than what he’s put to paper this year…I think. The Colts have been a defense we’ve attacked through the air all year and they rank 14th in DVOA against the pass but 19th in yards per attempt allowed and 15th in completion rate allowed. The bigger issue is Lawrence himself, as he sits 33rd in points per dropback, 29th in points per game, 32nd in true completion rate, 17th in pass yards, and all of that has come with the sixth-most attempts on the season. That is tough to get excited about. 

RB – By all indications, Dare Ogunbowale is the lead back since James Robinson has gone down. He’s played about 72% of the snaps and he has 26 attempts and six targets, both of which easily lead the team. He’s found the paint in each game and has scored at least 14 DraftKings points, so on normal slates, he could be on the board for value. He still is in the pool this week but we likely find better options for potentially much cheaper. Additionally, the Colts defense only has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to backs even though they are 25th in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – Since Week 12 when Laquon Treadwell started getting significant playing time, he’s one target behind Marvin Jones for the team lead and has the lead in points at 66.1 to 49.8. The notable difference is Jones still leads in both red-zone and end zone targets in that span but it just hasn’t translated. With both being affordable, it could be a good time to go after Jones with higher touchdown equity than the field realizes. Indy’s secondary could be missing both Xavier Rhodes and Andrew Sendejo, paving the way for both players to have an easier day…if X-Files can hit them. 

TE – James O’Shaughnessy would be right back in my player pool if he’s active this week. Indy has struggled against the tight end all season and is in the bottom-eight in receptions and yards allowed. He has a 13.4% target share on the season and even though he’s looking for his first touchdown, he’s cheap enough to punt and hope for 5/50 or something along those lines. 

Update – O’Shaughnessy is out this week

D/ST – They have seven takeaways, 26 sacks, and are 31st in total DVOA and points allowed. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Jones, Treadwell, X-Files, Ogunbowale

Washington at Giants, O/U of 37.5 (Washington -7)

Washington

QB – I don’t want to get too involved in this game and Taylor Heinicke isn’t swaying me to think differently. His salary looks appealing but he’s only 19th in points per game and 20th in points per dropback. When you add in that he’s 22nd in yards per attempt, 22nd in true completion rate, and 26th in deep completion rate, there’s not a lot to love here. The Giants are 17th in DVOA against the pass and ninth in yards allowed per attempt, so the matchup isn’t so great that I feel the need to play Heinicke. 

RB – The expectation would be that Antonio Gibson would be back for this game but it’s unclear how much the team will really use him. If they view Gibson as a foundational player for next year (I don’t see how they can’t), he shouldn’t be on the field for much of this game. When Gibson sat last week, Jaret Patterson played 61.9% of the snaps and handled 12 carries, and was targeted five times, catching all five. If he would have the backfield to himself again, he would be a major salary saver against the 29th ranked DVOA against the run. They have also allowed over 2,300 scrimmage yards against the running back position so with J.D. McKissic on the IR, there is value here unless there’s a split backfield. 

WR – It’s still Terry McLaurin or bust in the Washington corps and he had a little bit of positive momentum after last week. True, 7/61/0 isn’t special but that’s better than some of the games McLaurin has produced this year (not all his fault). It’s beyond clear that he has some serious volatility built into his game but the salary is down to $6,200. He’s still leading the league in unrealized air yards which is sad at this point but he’s managed to hang in the top 25 in yards on the year. The points per game look awful at 31st but he’s been capped at the knees by the bad games. It is worth noting that in the first game, McLaurin tormented James Bradberry for the Giants. He dropped 11/107/1 and Bradberry got destroyed in that game. He’s still giving up 1.77 points per target and 12.3 YPR so the upside is there. 

TE – In what was a scary scene, Ricky Seals-Jones had to be put on a backboard last week and taken out of the stadium after a collision with a cameraman. That very likely leaves John Bates as the lone tight end and he’s been seeing a handful of targets lately, with a cap of four. He’s not going to wow anyone but at $3,000, you could do worse. The Giants have allowed the 10th most receptions and Bates is one of those guys that will be looking to put strong effort for next year. 

Update – Seals-Jones is out

D/ST – I’m tempted by the Washington defense as they get to face one of the worst quarterbacks on the slate. Statistically, they don’t warrant consideration since they are 27th in total DVOA and 28th in points allowed. This is totally a matchup play and you just have to decide if you can live with the salary. 

Cash – Gibson (provided Washington plays him)

GPP – McLaurin, Bates 

Giants 

QB – Washington has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year but I will not waste any of my entry fees on Jake Fromm and you can’t make me. He’s gone 12/29 in his limited action so far and has not looked remotely like an NFL-caliber quarterback. 

RB – It’s really hard to get invested in this offense, even if Saquon Barkley did run for 102 yards last week. He was not utilized in the passing game past one target and while it’s nice to see him hit the 100-yard plateau, He’s averaged under 48 rushing yards per game. Washington is inside the top 10 in DVOA against the run and ninth in yards per attempt allowed, so the matchup isn’t exactly easy either. I don’t see a reason to jump in at $6,100 given what the Giants have given us for 17 weeks. 

WR – Kenny Golladay had all of one target last week, Kadarius Toney and Darius Slayton are both questionable, and they have Fromm throwing them the ball. This is one team that I’ll not even look at this week, that’s how bad the situation is. 

TE – I haven’t played Evan Engram all year and that’s not going to change. He’s 20th in receptions and 24th in yards, all while having a 14.7% target share and a horrific quarterback situation. 

D/ST – I may not like the Washington offense but this is a no-fly zone. We saw last week the offense constantly put them in bad spots and they are just 22nd in total DVOA this year with 31 sacks and 23rd in points allowed per game. 

Cash – None 

GPP – None 

Bears at Vikings, O/U of 44 (Vikings -5.5)

Bears

QB – I didn’t think this would happen but Justin Fields is grabbing the start this week, and the salary is tempting along with the matchup. Minnesota is down to 24th in yards allowed per attempt and Fields is 11th in deep completion rate at 40.4%. His last four games that he’s started and finished have produced at least 17.9 DraftKings points and two of them have been over 21 DK. Not surprisingly, his rushing yards have been at least 35 in those games and his attempts have been seven, nine, eight, and 10. I really do like the salary and so far, he is the primary punt option at the position. 

Update – Fields is in protocols Andy Dalton is starting

RB – David Montgomery continues to get fed the ball and this coaching staff needs to have anything positive happen. Hence, Monty will likely get fed in this game as well and in the past two weeks, he has 52 total touches. He’s had a stint on IR this season but is 10th in carries, fifth in red-zone touches, and has a 12.8% target share. Facing Minnesota is a solid matchup as well since they rank 25th in DVOA against the pass, they rank 30th in yards per attempt, and allow the eighth-most rushing yards to back in the league. The salary is starting to get up there a little bit as far as what kind of ceiling he can have but he’s still a fine play in cash. 

WR – Darnell Mooney SZN, that is all. There really are talented pieces in this offense for someone to figure out how to use. He’s coming off the second-most targets this year with 13 and that’s three straight weeks of hitting at least 10.9 DraftKings points. Mooney is actually ninth in unrealized air yards and neither Patrick Peterson nor Cameron Dantzler would worry me here. They’re all above 1.50 points per target and he’s been the alpha in the passing game. I can’t say I trust him in cash, but he’s got some upside in GPP with a big play or a score. 

TE – Cole Kmet is one of those tight ends that you can put in the lineup and get 5-8 points, but anything after that gets pretty scary. He was developing some rapport with Fields for a bit but that’s not going to happen this week. His 18.4% target share is 11th, as are his 56 receptions and he’s 22nd in points per game largely because he still hasn’t found the end zone. Minnesota is in the top half of the league as far as receptions, yards, and touchdowns so I don’t have a strong need to play Kmet. 

Update – With Fields starting, I’m much happier to play Kmet. He was a favorite of Fields for a few weeks and he’s one of the better punt tight ends that I feel confident produces. 

D/ST – I wouldn’t expect 20+ DraftKings points again but the Bears are moderately in play. They’re tied for third in sacks and are 20th in points allowed per game. One issue is they only have 16 turnovers forced but they are 13th in total DVOA and the salary is solid. 

Cash – Monty, TBD with Fields

GPP – Mooney, D/ST, Kmet

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins will be starting this week and I expect him to play most, if not all of the game after Mike Zimmer was cold-blooded to Kellen Mond after the game last week. Cousins has had a decent fantasy year at 12th in points per game and he’s 13th in points per dropback. Cousins doesn’t throw interceptions and he is at 30 touchdowns, which is strong and it helps when he has one of the best five receivers in football. Chicago is 10th in DVOA against the pass and 18th in yards per attempt allowed so he’s a fine play, but the ceiling is always in question. 

RB – What an absolute flop from Dalvin Cook last week, going for just 4.3 DraftKings points on just 12 touches. Provided Cousins plays this week, it’s easy to shake that off as Cook is under $8,000 and you just don’t get that salary. Now, even if Cook is active there is a risk that he sits out early so I don’t think you can play him in cash. The matchup is sneaky good with Chicago ranking 23rd in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards per attempt. Cook is fifth in carries on the season and fourth in rushing yards while ranking fifth in red-zone touches. I’d love to have clarity before kickoff about how much he’s going to play but we’ll see what happens. 

WR – With Cousins back, Justin Jefferson is a much more appealing play. Chicago does have their secondary back intact and JJ has just been a monster this year. He’s fourth in receptions, second in yards, eighth in yards run per route, eighth in touchdowns, and fourth in points per game. That’s despite some quiet games and Jaylon Johnson is on the other side, but Johnson is up to 1.67 points per target and a 55.6% catch rate allowed. K.J. Osborn has been filling in for Adam Thielen and he’ll get to face off against Artie Burns for some of this game, who has a 13.6 YPR. On the year, Osborn has a 14.5% target share but in the past five games when Thielen has been mostly missing, it’s second on the team at 16.8%. 

TE – If Cousins is back as the starter, I’ll be a little less likely to look at Ty Conklin. Really, even with the backup he only went 5/47 so it wasn’t some massive game. He’s in the top 12 in yards and receptions but only 17th in points per game, so the appeal isn’t really there for Conklin this week. 

D/ST – Just like the defense on the other side of this game, Minnesota is a solid option. Matt Nagy’s offense is not that great and the Vikes are sixth in sacks on the season. He’s only played in 12 games but Fields has been sacked the ninth-most times so that is a really poor match with what the Vikings can do well. 

Cash – Cook, Jefferson

GPP – Osborn, D/ST, Cousins 

Titans at Texans, O/U of 42.5 (Titans -10)

Titans (Clinched Playoffs, Win gets the #1 Seed)

QB – I’m not sure I can do it with Ryan Tannehill anymore. Even with A.J. Brown back in the fold, he still hasn’t scored over 15 DK points in those two games. He’s only 16th in yards, 24th in yards per attempt, and 16th in both points per game and dropback. The only positive is this is a matchup against the Texans defense since they rank 19th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in yards per attempt allowed. I think if anything, I’d just get my exposure with Brown and/or the run game. 

RB – It appears that D’Onta Foreman’s one week of not getting the bulk of the carries was just that, a one-week deal. He was the alpha in the backfield this past week with 26 carries and if he gets that against the Houston Texans, Foreman is one of the better sub-$6,000 backs on the entire slate. Houston is down at 26th in DVOA against the run and no team has allowed more rushing yards to backs this season. Since Tennessee has the easiest path a first-round bye with a win, we should expect Foreman to get a ton of work and I’m in. 

WR – A.J. Brown is incredibly talented and should never have a game where he’s targeted five times but here we are. The game flow certainly didn’t help but my goodness. Get this man the football. You can’t play him in cash but he has an immense ceiling with a 44% air yards share (second among receivers) and has a 27.7% target share. The issue crops up when the Titans just run the ball to death and that is possible here. Desmond King is the likeliest opposition and he’s allowed a 65.6% catch rate and 1.52 points per target. The 13.6 YPR is appealing for Brown as well, just know the floor that comes with it. 

TE – Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser both caught touchdowns last week and neither scored over 11 DraftKings points. Considering a touchdown is seven on its own, that’s not a good sign and neither is a very strong target, even against Houston. They are both under 10% in target share and both have eight red-zone targets or fewer this year. 

D/ST – The Titans defense might not be filled with household names but they are a pretty strong unit with 41 sacks, 22 turnovers, sixth in points allowed, and ninth in total DVOA. The Texans offense doesn’t present a huge challenge and Tennessee needs to win for a vital bye week. Sign me up. 

Cash – Foreman, D/ST 

GPP – Brown 

Texans 

QB – Davis Mills has been solid from the real-life perspective, even in what was a tough spot for him last week. I think Fields has the much higher upside so I’m likely going there and Tennessee has come up to seventh in DVOA against the pass this year. He’s still just 26th in true completion rate and 30th in points per game, so Fields looks much better in this price range. 

RB – If there’s a more gross option than Rex Burkhead, I’m not sure what it is. I’m not looking to play him but the amount of touches he gets weekly now has to be at least noted. Since Week 11 when the Texans threw their weight behind them, Burkhead is seventh across the league in carries. I wouldn’t bank on six receptions again but Tennessee is 14th in DVOA against the run. They aren’t invincible and he’s at least in play, even if he’s not a spectacular option. 

WR – The only reliable receiver is Brandin Cooks, who has strung together three straight games of at least 21.1 DraftKings points. In those games, he has a 35% target share and an air yards share of 52.3%, and the chemistry between him and Mills has been flowing. Cooks has at least 10 targets in all three games and he could see more of Elijah Moldenif Janoris Jenkins is out. Golden has allowed a 12.2 YPR and a catch rate of almost 70% and the salary for Cooks is just silly. He’s one of the most underappreciated receivers in football. 

TE – The high-end position is a mess for the Texans with a mix of Brevin Jordan and Pharaoh Brown and the floor is zero. Even at a punt price, I can’t get there myself. 

D/ST – If you wanted to punt, I get it with Houston but that rushing defense is a huge issue here. They are 18th in total DVOA but 26th in points allowed. The thing with Houston is the lack of splash plays as they sit in the bottom 10 in sacks but they have forced 25 turnovers. The outcomes are pretty wide here. 

Cash – Cooks

GPP – Burkhead 

Steelers at Ravens, O/U of 41.5 (Ravens -4)

Steelers (Needs to Win and Help)

QB – Ben Roethlisberger tried his best to go out on his shield last week and he threw 46 times but generated under 170 yards passing. That is rough and Big Ben is 31st in yards per attempt this season along with 27th in deep completion rate, not exactly what I’m looking for to target this Baltimore secondary. They have been very poor due to injuries throughout the year and they are tied for the highest yards per attempt allowed in the past three weeks at 9.4 yards. I might have enough Pittsburgh homer in me to have a lineup for his last NFL game, but I wouldn’t recommend that. 

RB – I’m not sure we should chase Najee Harris after his best game of the season in a tough spot but the salary is not that expensive. The Ravens are sixth in DVOA against the run and have only allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to backs this season. On top of that, Baltimore also ranks third in yards allowed per attempt but Harris is second in carries on the year, first in routes, first in receptions, and fourth in both rushing and receiving yards. Harris is also fifth in points per game so he’s in play, especially with both teams needing to win and help to back into the playoffs. 

WR – Diontae Johnson could miss this game in protocols but he’s not been ruled out yet. He missed a game in Week 3 and when that happened, Chase Claypool and James Washington were the primary receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster left that game early so Claypool saw a whopping 15 targets and Harris saw 19 (!). Claypool at $5,100 would be a slam dunk cash play based on volume alone and then we can look at Washington as a deep flier and Ray-Ray McCloud has seen at least eight targets in three of the past four games. If Diontae is out, this passing game is wide open. 

Update – Diontae is active and corner Anthony Averett is out for Baltimore, a boost of the Pittsburgh receivers

TE – The salary may keep me away, but Pat Freiermuth gets to pick on this poor secondary and I’m interested. He saw another six targets last week and Big Ben still wants to throw the rock one last time. We’ve been picking on that secondary for a while and he’s fifth in touchdowns on the year. This is one of the best chances he’s had to find the paint lately. 

D/ST – I may not think they’re going to record nine sacks this week but I can still live with the play. They now lead the league in sacks which helps cover sitting in the bottom 12 in turnovers forced and points allowed this year. They have taken a step back, to be clear. The price is very fair for the element of risk they bring to the table and could be a strong pivot off a popular offense. 

Cash – Harris, Johnson

GPP – D/ST, Ben, Claypool, Freiermuth

Ravens (Need to Win and Help)

QB – I’d be happy to play either Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, as their running ability can give the Steelers issues. I don’t think we’ve ever got Jackson at $7,000 flat on any slate but he’s not practicing to start the week. Huntley struggled a little bit against the Rams but that’s to be expected. Pittsburgh’s pass rush destroyed the Browns last week but Huntley can get out of the pocket in ways that Baker cannot. We’ll see how the week shakes out with practice. 

RB – In the past few weeks, we’ve shied away from the running game for Baltimore in large part because the defense was struggling so badly, they were in negative game scripts. However, the Pittsburgh offense hasn’t shown any ability to run away in games and Devonta Freeman got another 15 touches last week when the Ravens almost upset the Rams. Unlike the Browns this past Monday night, Baltimore will use their run game when they can and Freeman already tagged the Steelers for 20+ DraftKings points this year. Since Week 9 of this year, Freeman also has a 9.3% target share in the offense. Even after Cleveland let them off the hook, Pittsburgh is still 31st in rushing yards allowed to backs, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 27th in DVOA against the run. It’s a strong matchup for Freeman at home and the salary is exceptional. 

WR – Marquise Brown could benefit from a possible Joe Haden absence and Brown is 11th in receptions and 20th in yards on the season. He’s also sixth in deep targets so if the offensive line can hold up, Brown can get behind this defense in a hurry and he’s seventh in unrealized air yards as well. There have been some ups and downs this year, explaining why he’s the 20th receiver in points per game but the salary leaves room for plenty of upside. Rashod Bateman goes back and forth between being targeted a lot and not at all. In the past four games, he’s had two with at least eight and two with five or fewer. That’s really hard to get a bead on but his aDOT of nine yards is the lowest in the offense. If the line is struggling with the Pittsburgh pass rush, that could funnel some targets his way. Ahkello Witherspoon has emerged in these past couple of weeks and it’s only 29 targets, but he’s only allowed 10 receptions for 0.89 points per target. 

TE – The TE1 is on the slate and Mark Andrews leads in yards, receptions, air yards, deep targets, touchdowns, points per game, targets, and target share. Any other questions? I wonder if paying up at tight end is different this week and Andrews is in play even against a tougher defense. He had plenty of chances in that first game and dropped a two-point conversion, which could have led him to have a big game. Pittsburgh has been solid against the position but we don’t sweat that with Andrews. 

D/ST – I just can’t pull the trigger with how bad they’ve been. They were gifted a touchdown last week on top of the interceptions, which were hideous. They’re still down at 28th in total DVOA and 20th in points allowed per game, let alone a pressure rate of barely 24%. Big Ben is inside the top 10 in sacks this year but this is tough to get behind when more talented defenses are cheaper. 

Cash – Andrews, Freeman, QB

GPP – Brown, Bateman

Bengals at Browns, O/U of 38 (Browns -6)

Bengals (TBD, #1 Seed is in play but Chiefs have to lose Saturday)

QB – Joe Burrow is sitting out this game so Brandon Allen will start and I can’t say I’m looking in that direction very much. He’s going to be down the starting running back and likely not able to throw to the main receivers. 

RB – Much like Burrow, I tend to think the outlook for Joe Mixon is cloudy and takes a big hit if Kansas City wins Saturday. If they lack any motivation to move their slot, they could just elect to get their starters time off. That could mean sitting outright or perhaps even just playing a half. As far as the matchup goes, the Browns just got smoked by the Steelers on Monday night and are down to 20th in DVOA against the run to go along with 12th in yards per attempt. This whole team is going to be a wait-and-see approach but if Mixon sits, we could at least consider Samaje Perine. I wouldn’t be in love because that would mean Allen would be at quarterback. 

Update – Perine is the man and he’s in play, potentially even chalky. 

WR – I will be very transparent here and say this whole corps is a complete pass for me as things stand. Ja’Marr Chase won us a ton of money last week but this week he could “potentially” play, which is code for there is zero chance he plays a full game. That’s also probably going to hold true for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd but we don’t know that. If those guys duck out early, Mike Thomas, Trenton Irwin, and Stanley Morgan have a combined 11 targets this season. With a backup QB and RB, I’m not that interested and it’s too risky. 

TE – C.J. Uzomah is in the Kmet category where he’ll like snag 3-4 passes and average his 30 yards per game, but that might be about all you get. The target share is 24th at 12.3% and he’s not in the top 15 in yards or receptions despite not missing a game this season. 

D/ST – We’ll see who all is planning on sitting but the salary is very appealing for a defense that ranks in the top 10 in sacks. They are just average in DVOA, points allowed, and takeaways but the Browns offense is not good past their running back and their slot receiver. 

Cash – Perine if we need it

GPP – None for me 

Browns 

QB – Case Keenum is plenty cheap but the upside is very questionable. He started Week 7 against the Broncos and threw it 33 times but only generated 199 yards and one score, resulting in under 13 DraftKings points. That won’t get it done on a full slate and the only plus is the Bengals are likely not playing all their starters the entire game. Cincinnati is just 24th against the pass in DVOA but they can get pressure on the quarterback as they sit top five in sacks on the season. That element might change a little bit, but Cleveland still has the same questionable cast of receiving options. 

RB – With Mayfield already ruled out, I do wonder if Nick Chubb gets the same treatment. According to Kevin Stefanski, Chubb had a rib injury Monday even though he had more carries in the second half and was never listed on the Browns injury report. I guess you say whatever you can think of instead of “it was a really stupid game plan” but I digress. If Chubb is out and Kareem Hunt is still out, that leaves D’Ernest Johnson as the lead back. That’s happened twice this season and both times he exceeded 22 DraftKings points and totaled 41 carries in those games. He would be a pretty strong option under $5,000 especially if his opposition has nothing to play for. 

WR – The Browns said Anthony Schwartz would get some extra chances in the offense but that was a total lie, as Cleveland has been wont to do lately. Donovan Peoples-Jones played 90% of the snaps which led the corps last week and he saw five targets to two for Schwartz with his normal 16.4-yard aDOT. Eli Apple would be on the other side for a lot and he’s allowed 13.3 YPR and a 577% catch rate. He’s going to be the GPP play here with Keenum but Jarvis Landry saw another 10 targets last week and he saw eight when Keenum started in Week 7. When he’s in the slot, Mike Hilton is going to be the opposition and he’s allowed a massive 72.6% catch rate. Of course, they may decide to sit the defensive guys as well through some of this game so the matchup could get better. 

TE – Harrison Bryant and David Njoku both caught a touchdown last week while Austin Hooper only went 2/28 and there’s always that risk with Cleveland. Bryant only has a 5.2% target share so he can be discarded while Hooper and Njoku are both over 11.3% on the year. That’s very average and when those two bite into each other, it’s not very appealing to go either. The only good news is their quarterback play really didn’t get much worse this week. 

D/ST – Cleveland is getting the luxury of facing a lot of backups this week and they rank 14th in total DVOA and 17th in points allowed per game. With the Bengals sitting out skill players, the salary is really nice and the biggest issue might be who’s left to play for the Cleveland side. They have been dealing with a lot of injuries so we’ll see what Friday brings us. 

Cash – Landry

GPP – Chubb, D/ST, Peoples-Jones

Panthers at Buccaneers, O/U of 41.5 (Buccaneers -8)

Panthers

QB – I for one will say that I was wrong about Sam Darnold. I thought getting away from Adam Gase would solve a myriad of issues but that hasn’t happened this season. He’s 28th in yards per attempt, 30th in true completion rate, 31st in deep completion rate, 27th in points per dropback, and 25th in points per game. Nothing is appealing in those numbers and the salary isn’t low enough for me to want to take a shot. 

RB – This is an unenviable spot on a normal week and the Panthers just faced the Bucs. It didn’t end well with both Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah ending under four DraftKings points and they continue to split work to some extent. Tampa has fallen to 12th in DVOA against the run which is the lowest they’ve been this season, but they also have allowed the fewest rushing yards to backs in football. While they do have a weakness in the receiving game (third-most receptions, sixth-most yards), neither of these backs fit that exact prototype. If we were starved for value, maybe you could swing at Abdullah but one aspect this slate will not be missing is value. 

WR – It looks like Robby Anderson could miss this game which would elevate Brandon Zylstra into the number two role, although I wouldn’t be running to play him. As the stone minimum, I would get it as a punt play if Anderson is out but D.J. Moore would be the star, even more than he already is. Moore is second in air yard share, 13th in yards and receptions, sixth in unrealized air yards, and just 24th in points per game. Sitting 84th in catchable targets is just heartbreaking for him but he could threaten 15 targets without Anderson this week. Carlton Davis has been targeted 56 times this year for Tampa and he’s allowed a 57.1% catch rate, but also a 14.6 YPR and 1.83 points per target. I’m not sure I could trust Darnold to get him the ball for cash, but I’m interested in GPP. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance in the Panthers offense. 

D/ST – We were reminded last week to not mess with defenses against the Bucs, even though Carolina is way better than the Jets. The only way this would change for me is if we know Tampa is sitting players, as the Panthers are 12th in total DVOA and have a pressure rate of 27.2%. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Moore

Buccaneers (Clinched NFC South)

QB – Do I think Tom Brady needs to throw for 400+ yards and three scores in this game? No, but I didn’t think that last week either. They could move around their seeding but the more important part for Tampa is just to get to the fence as healthy as possible. They already have lost multiple skill players and you can come back against the Jets in that scenario but the path is going to get harder. Brady has every metric we could want like leading in attempts, touchdowns, red-zone attempts, yards, and ranking third in points per dropback. I just question how motivated the Bucs are to leave him out there this week because if he gets injured, it’s all over for them. 

RB – This backfield is suddenly really disgusting. Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn check into the early week with injuries and questionable tags. If they would both be out, we might be down to Le’Veon Bell who played 35% of the snaps this past week. That being a good thing is debatable but the Bucs offense has so many check-downs built-in that he can get it done through the receiving game alone. I don’t think we need to go here and the Panthers do rank seventh in yards per attempt allowed and 17th in DVOA against the pass. Tampa would need o to be pretty thin to consider. 

Update – Jones is out so Vaughn would be my primary target here. I think Bell is treated more as the secondary option and when Vaughn came out of college, one of his better traits was supposed to be his pass-catching ability.

WR – I think we all know that Mike Evans is in play with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the offense. The Panthers have corner Stephon Gilmore on the Covid list so he could miss and Evans is back to full practice. I’m totally fine with him but a name to keep in mind is Cyril Grayson. He played almost 70% of the snaps last week and had eight targets for 81 yards and a score. That marked the second straight week he’s gone over 80 yards receiving and when Brady trusts you, that’s a fantastic sign. The only thing that could really derail Evans (and possibly Grayson) is playing time, so I’m not looking in this direction in cash, as it stands. 

TE – I’ve punted Cameron Brate for two straight weeks and will likely do so again in GPP lineups, but Rob Gronkowski is still in play as things stand. For Brate, you need him to score but he’s second in red-zone targets in the active lineup. Gronk is going to see plenty of work unless Tampa decides to just sit guys given their situation. Other than one game (against these Panthers), he’s had at least eight targets in every single game since he came back from Week 11. 

D/ST – Even on a slate with values, I’m not paying up for any defense at $4,000. Tampa should play well since they are 11th in total DVOA, tied for 10th in points per game, and are fourth in turnovers forced. 

Cash – None

GPP – Evans, Gronk, Grayson, Brady, Brate

Patriots at Dolphins, O/U of 39.5 (Patriots -6)

Patriots (Clinched a spot, alive for AFC East AND the #1 Seed)

QB – For just the second time all season last week, Mac Jones threw for more than two touchdowns and he surpassed 22 DraftKings points. Miami has righted the ship as far as defending the pass as they’re ninth in DVOA against the pass and eighth in yards allowed per attempt. It was grim earlier in the season but Jones has not consistently shown the upside we prefer with cheap quarterbacks. He’s just 24th in points per game and only has 21 touchdown passes with zero rushing upside. I’d rather take the chance on Fields at the salary. 

RB – We have to figure that the Patriots will give their best effort…to a point. Since they’ll be watching the scoreboard, every outcome is in play. Buffalo can beat the stuffing out of the Jets and make the game meaningless in the third quarter, so it could be dangerous to bank on the starters. Damien Harris has been dealing with a hamstring injury for weeks and he left early last week because of that and New England throttling the Jaguars, but that game script is in play again. He only had 10 touches compared to 19 for Rhamondre Stevenson and they both scored twice. Neither player is very cheap but there’s far less risk with Stevenson and Miami is 13th in DVOA against the run and 19th in yards per attempt allowed. 

WR – Jakobi Meyers scored just his second touchdown last week and his price barely moved, making him interesting again. Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor are more secondary players in the offense after the run game and the tight end, so I’m not going after any of them that much. Meyers is still in the slot almost half the time and has a 24.2% target share with sitting 16th in receptions. Nik Needham has allowed a 67.4% catch rate this year with a 13.1 YPR s it’s nice to avoid Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. I’m not terribly concerned about Kristian Wilkerson scoring twice last week on eight targets since Agholor is out and that game was over very early. 

TE – We know exactly what Hunter Henry is this year and if he doesn’t score, you’re going to get very little in return. He’s not in the top 15 in yards or receptions and he’s only 14th in points per game but touchdowns solve everything. Henry co-leads the position and Miami has allowed six scores on the season. Henry is a player that you can throw into MME builds in case you get that massive outcome, but he’s not appealing past that format. 

D/ST – The Patriots are right in line with the other high-end defenses in that I expect a nice game out of them, but they are expensive. They are second in total DVOA, they are the only team that doesn’t allow over 17 points per game, and they are tied for second in turnovers forced. Miami’s offense is very limited in what they do so New England is in a strong spot. 

Cash – Meyers, TBD of the backs (not likely going here due to potential game script)

GPP – Jones, Henry, D/ST 

Dolphins

QB – I’m the Tua Tagovailoa guy on staff but this isn’t close to the spot for me. Regardless of how he played last week (poorly), playing the New England defense hasn’t worked for many players this year. They are third in DVOA against the pass, second in yards per attempt allowed, and second in completion rate allowed. Even then, they are half a percent from being first so this is a bad matchup all the way around. For his side of the equation, Tua is 21st in points per game and 17th in points per dropback. I’ll give him first in red-zone completion rate but that’s not enough to warrant the play here. 

RB – The Dolphins are in a full-blown committee with Duke Johnson leading the pack for the last three weeks. Myles Gaskin has taken a backseat (18 carries in the past three weeks) while Phillip Lindsay snipes a carry or two, making this situation largely unappealing. New England is seventh in DVOA against the pass and I can find little reason to chase a split backfield like this in a bad spot. 

WR – I’m not sure it will get much worse for Jaylen Waddle after last week when he scored under eight DraftKings points for the first time since Week 8. He’s still seventh in the league in receptions with 15 games played and he’s 13th in points per game. Waddle is 10th in targets and he’s out of the slot about 45% of the time, leaving him on Myles Bryant and his 71.4% catch rate across 35 targets. DeVante Parker is far less on my radar because he’s going to see plenty of J.C. Jackson, who is allowing just 1.33 points per target and a 79.6 passer rating. 

TE – I think I like Mike Gesicki more than the Dolphins coaching staff does, but the Patriots defense is a tough cookie. It’s not apples to apples but in Week 1, Gesicki put up a goose egg in this matchup and New England has been dominant against the position. They are the only team in the NFL to hold tight ends under 50 receptions (42) and 525 receiving yards (386). Regardless of the style of tight end they faced through 17 weeks, that’s still notable. While Gesicki is largely a glorified slot receiver (53.5% of his routes), this isn’t an ideal spot for him. The 18.7% target share is only ninth in the league and that’s not quite enough volume to get me to bite here. 

D/ST – Miami could be in punt consideration since they are seventh in turnovers forced, 10th in DVOA, and 16th in points per game. On top of that, they are tied for third in sacks as well, and even against a conservative offense, they can pay off the salary. After last week, many won’t be looking at them either. 

Cash – Waddle

GPP – D/ST 

Saints at Falcons, O/U of 39.5 (Saints -3.5)

Saints (Needs to Win and Help)

QB – It’s a great matchup as the Flacons defense has been bad all season long and Taysom Hill has major upside with his rushing ability. Even at this salary, he’s hit 4x in two of his four starts and would have been 3x last week. Atlanta is just 26th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in yards allowed per attempt while he is already sixth in red-zone carries and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Hill is one of the best players to show the separation between real life and fantasy but we’re playing fantasy. 

RB – If there’s a player that I’m strongly worried about, it’s Alvin Kamara. With the Saints needing the 49ers to lose, they could pull Kamara if the game gets out of hand out West. The good news for Kamara is two-fold. First, the 49ers take on the Rams so they have a very legitimate chance to lose. Secondly, the Atlanta run defense is 30th in DVOA, has allowed just over 2,200 scrimmage yards, and sits 18th in yards per attempt. Since the Saints have a chance to get in, Kamara should be in for a heavy workload and both the Rams and 49ers have to play hard as well. Kamara could be an outstanding GPP play this week. 

WR – Marquez Callaway showed some signs of life last week and he’s had flashes over the past three weeks but the bad news is the matchup here is not ideal at all. He’s facing A.J. Terrell who if he didn’t play for one of the league’s worst defenses would be recognized as a very good up-and-coming corner. Terrell is fourth in catch rate allowed at 43.1% and seventh in points per target at 1.09. It’s likely best to avoid this situation, although Lil’Jordan Humphrey or Deonte Harris could break a big play against far worse corners. 

TE – The Saints are back to not even looking at Adam Trautman, who didn’t have a single target last week and has just two since coming off the IR in Week 15. Juwan Johnson has also been a non-factor and has a target share under 6%, so there’s not much of a need to go here. 

D/ST – This would likely the be most expensive defense that I would play since they are under $3,500 and they have a lot of metrics that match the upper echelon. New Orleans is fourth in total DVOA, fourth in points allowed, and they’ve forced 22 turnovers on the season. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most sacks on the year as well. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Taysom, Kamara, D/ST 

Falcons 

QB – It’s funny to note that the last even usable game from Matt Ryan came against these Saints, but I’m not going to take that for any type of meaning. Ryan has been positively dreadful for fantasy for months now He’s 26th in points per game and points per dropback, not to mention 18th in yards per attempt. The Saints are fourth in DVOA against the pass and have been that way basically through the entire year, and Ryan may not have all his weapons on top of it. 

RB – The past month has seen a big shift in the Falcons backfield with Mike Davis only being 11 carries behind Cordarrelle Patterson in that span. Last week saw Davis getting more red-zone work last week at 4-3 and that’s really scary. On top of that, Patterson only has one more target than Davis over the past four games and the Saints defense is first in DVOA against the run while giving up the third-fewest rushing yards to backs. I’ll have no interest here. 

WR – Russell Gage could really be the last man standing in this offense due to injuries, and I’m not sure I want to go after him with other options in this salary range. Gage has been the go-to player in the passing game along with their tight end, but he’s not exactly a priority. He does run out of the slate about 40% of the time, which helps him avoid Marshon Lattimore and face more of P.J. Williams. That’s a much better spot as he’s allowed a catch rate of nearly 74% across just 23 targets. Still, this is a tough and motivated defense against an offense that has been dreadful. I do like other options much better. 

TE – I’m already excited to draft Kyle Pitts next year because he went for over 1,000 yards in his rookie year with only one score, and that latter part has to change. For this week, he may not even play because he left early last week with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice Wednesday. Much like they have been against many positions, the Saints have defended tight ends well. Pitts is still third in yards and sixth in target share, but we can’t possibly expect the Falcons to push him this week. 

Update – Pitts is questionable but did practice twice during the week

D/ST – It’s not a bad matchup but the Falcons have been terrible this year on defense. They’re 29th in DVOA, 29th in points allowed, and they only have 17 sacks. That’s the fewest in the league by nine. 

Cash – None

GPP – Pitts (if active), Gage

Jets at Bills, O/U of 41.5 (Bills -16)

Jets

QB – When he didn’t have a touchdown run of 50+ yards to prop up the score, Zach Wilson was just average again. He showed some good signs in real life and it’s fair to remember that he’s missing his top three receivers, but that’s not likely to change this year. Buffalo has to win this game so they will deploy their starting defense and that has ranked first in completion rate allowed, first in yards allowed per attempt, and second in DVOA against the pass. With Wilson ranking in the bottom few quarterbacks in all our metrics this year, I’ll pass. 

RB – We’ll need news on the status of Michael Carter before we can go too far in this spot after he was forced to leave early last week because of a concussion. He generated 63 scrimmage yards on just four touches and showed he has the explosive ability, which would be interesting at this salary. Buffalo continues to slide in DVOA against the run at 15th and they are 14th in yards per attempt. Carter is top 20 in target share on the season and when he’s been healthy, he has 15 carry upside as well. If he’s out, some might look at Ty Johnson but he only had five carries as opposed to 14 for Austin Walter. Johnson was more impactful in the scoresheet because he had the score and the passing work but Walter did have more red-zone touches. Let’s hope Carter is active so we don’t have to worry about this portion of the Jets backfield. 

WR – We need to see who’s even left to play as Braxton Berrios has missed Wednesday and Thursday practices, never a good sign. Jamison Crowder is limited and no other player is really around until we get to Keelan Cole. Now, Robert Salah seems to think Berrios will still play and he’ll be popular again after going nuts last week. He saw another 12 targets last week and is the only game in town n what is almost surely going to be a negative game script. Let’s circle back when we know who’s going to play. 

Update – Berrios is doubtful and Crowder practiced in full on Friday, so Crowder is the target if you want to go this route

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance for the Jets. 

D/ST – No. 

Cash – TBD

GPP – TBD, Carter

Bills (Clinched a spot, AFC East Title with a win)

QB – It’s not going to get any safer than Josh Allen on this slate for the quarterback position. He’s among the elite and deserves to be at this salary. The Jets are in the bottom five in about every metric we talk about while Allen is in the top five. This is a horrible mismatch and in the first game, Allen posted 24 DraftKings points with just two touchdowns. 

RB – It seemed to take a while but Devin Singletary got going last week and his price is still too low since the Bills have committed to him as their lead back. In the last three weeks, Singletary is seventh across the league in carries and he’s tied for the lead in red-zone carries. He’s still only $6,000, the Bills need to win, and the Jets are 26th in DVOA against the run, 29th in rushing yards allowed to backs, and 23rd in yards per attempt. This week is about finding value where it presents, but when we have good players in elite offenses with major roles, we shouldn’t ignore that when their game still matters. 

WR – It’ has been a somewhat disappointing year for Stefon Diggs but his best game of the season came against this team with 8/162/1 and I’m excited to play him again. This is one of the worst pass defenses in the league and Diggs is in a “down” year, he’s in the top 10 in yards, receptions, unrealized air yards, touchdowns, points per game, deep targets, and targets overall. He’s a few passes connecting away from having the season we expected. 

If he’s too expensive, Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley could be options to get a piece of this passing game provided Emmanuel Sanders is out. Davis played over 86% of the snaps last week and even though he only saw three targets, he’s flashed before in this spot and he has a higher upside than Beasley. I tend to want Diggs here but I do want something of this offense no matter what. There isn’t a corner the Jets have played all year that matters as far as the individual matchup. 

TE – Dawson Knox has fallen into being a more expensive version of Hunter Henry, in that you need a score to come close to paying the bills for him. He does co-lead the position with nine trips to the paint, but this is a crowded offense when they are mostly healthy. Knox is only 20th in targets and 22nd in target share while sitting just 19th in receptions. It’s tough to get looks behind everyone else so while the Jets have allowed the second-most yards and eight scores, the salary is a lot to pay. 

D/ST – They have some big upside as they have a 29% pressure rate and can force a lot of mistakes from Wilson, let alone being top five in DVOA and points allowed. There’s not any reason to not play them past the salary they sit at. 

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Singletary

GPP – Davis, Beasley, Knox, D/ST 

49ers at Rams, O/U of 44.5 (Rams -4.5)

49ers (In With a Win or Tie)

QB – Let’s circle back when we know the starter but Trey Lance was a holding call from going totally nuclear last week. He had a rushing touchdown wiped out and that would have put him over 25 DraftKings points, and it’s not like 20.1 was a bad thing. The matchup gets far more difficult here though. The Rams are fifth in DVOA against the pass and they are much more stout against the run. It was nice to hear his coach say he improved as the game went on last week (shocking that playing time helps). He’s still cheap enough to be interested but this is not the smash spot that it was last week, to be sure. 

RB – Well, we know that when Eli Mitchell is active he’s going to be the lead back after he logged another 23 touches after missing multiple games. He got a cupcake matchup last week but the sledding gets tougher this week against the Rams. They rank in the top-five in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt but it is fair to note that Mitchell ran for 91 hard-earned yards in the first meeting. At the exact same price, I’d rather Singletary but they both have upside and meat on the bone at the salary. 

WR – We’re still learning who’s going to thrive with Lance under center and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both saw six targets last week, with Deebo tacking on seven carries. Deebo could also see a little more of Jalen Ramsey who is still at 1.26 points per target and just 9.7 YPR. Deebo has been a monster and is in the top five in receiving yards so I wouldn’t take him off the table in GPP, but I would want Jefferson or Diggs ahead of him. For Aiyuk, he sees more of Darious Williams who is at 1.39 points per target allowed as well. With an inexperienced quarterback potentially under center, it’s not my favorite group of receivers to target. 

TE – The worst fears for George Kittle playing with Lance came to fruition last week as he was only targeted twice. If Lance starts again, you can always hope for improvement and even within the start, Lance looked progressively more comfortable. It’s almost like playing time helps, and he hasn’t played much football in the past 18 months. Anyway, it’s very uncomfortable to sink this amount of salary into a player that has this level of floor with a new quarterback. Let’s see who starts and circle back. 

D/ST – With the state of their secondary, I’m not interested even though they are eighth in total DVOA and 14th in points allowed. Additionally, they are tied for seventh in sacks but only have a pressure rate of 23.3%. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Lance, Mitchell, Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, D/ST 

Rams (Clinched a Spot, Win locks the NFC West)

QB – Not only do the Rams need to win, but Matthew Stafford needs to stop throwing picks all over the place. He’s thrown six in the past three games and there have been a couple that has been really ugly. He’s actually thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in the past three games so he needs to get some mojo going. San Francisco is only 18th in DVOA against the pass and they currently have nine players in the secondary that are listed as out or on the IR. Stafford is still third in yards per attempt and ninth in deep completion rate, so there should be plenty of chances this week. 

RB – It is possible that the Rams use Cam Akers in the backfield this week but it would be a surprise to see him take any major role. Sony Michel has been the man in the backfield and that should continue this week again, even if it’s not going to be the 22 touches he had last week. Darrell Henderson has been basically out of action since Week 13 with just seven carries combined and Michel is tied with Jonathan Taylor for the league lead with 108 carries. That volume may not stick but in this offense, he’s at least interesting. San Francisco is all the way up to second in DVOA against the run and eighth in yards per attempt. 

WR – All the Cooper Kupp. He needs 12 receptions and 136 yards to break the record (and 171 to hit 2,000) so all of it is in play. Now, to his credit, Kupp has downplayed it and said it’s not the same since he gets an extra game to attain these thresholds but once that game starts, all that is out the window. They also want to win the division to get a home game and one of the best ways to do that this year has been Kupp. On top of him being the lead receiver in about every metric, the 49ers secondary had been destroyed by injuries with nine players out or on the IR and two more questionable. That could make for GPP pivots in Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson but OBJ is starting to get up there. He’s scored five touchdowns since joining the Rams but is still yet to exceed 40 receiving yards in all but two games. He has taken the lead in targets, red zone and end zone looks, and receptions as well so he does get the lean here. 

TE – With the fact the Kupp is chasing history, Tyler Higbee may not see the ball all that much this week. That’s what the narrative would tell you but the reality is Higbee saw nine targets last week, the second-most he’s seen in a game this year. With the loss of Words from the receiving corps, Higbee has actually been a virtual tie for the third-most targets with OBJ and Jefferson since Week 10. Where he’s been lagging behind is the red zone, with just three looks but the salary can be paid off with just receptions and yards. He’s a perfectly fine play at this point, even if the upside isn’t spectacular. 

D/ST – They are an intriguing play at the salary, especially if Lance winds up starting. He can still make mistakes against an experienced unit like LA and they rank fifth in total DVOA and have the second-most sacks in the league. At $3,100, they likely aren’t expensive enough. 

Cash – Kupp, Stafford, Michel, D/ST 

GPP – OBJ, Higbee, Jefferson 

Seahawks at Cardinals, O/U of 48 (Cardinals -7)

Seahawks

QB – I was too hesitant on the Seahawks last week and may have missed my chance to play Russell Wilson. His salary is still solid at just $6,300 but he’s not facing Detroit this week as Arizona is sixth in DVOA against the pass and 11th in yards per attempt allowed. Wilson missed time but he is still seventh in deep attempts on the season, seventh in yards per attempt, and eighth in points per dropback. He’s probably been better than I’ve been giving him credit for and he’s in play, especially in GPP. 

RB – I still have a lot of regret from last week for not playing Rashaad Penny in one of the best spots on the slate, but we move forward. I’d have to believe he’s going to be given plenty of work again this week after 25 carries and two receptions last week en route to 185 scrimmage yards and 35+ DraftKings points. He’s eclipsed 130 rushing yards in three of the past four games but it should be noted that those three games came against much weaker opponents. The matchup gets tougher this week all around, although the Cardinals run defense has shown some cracks. They sit 21st in yards per carry allowed but have only faced the 13th fewest carries on the season. Salary may not be a huge issue overall this week but he does feel a bit pricey given the most recent results. 25 carries would be one thing but it’s the first time he’s gone over 17 in this run of success. 

WR – I’m on the fence about D.K. Metcalf because it really feels like chasing after not exceeding 12 points since Week 8 against Jacksonville. That’s a long time and he’s probably not scoring three times again, which sort of obscured the fact 6/63 is not all that great. He’s been so difficult to figure out this year while sitting outside the top 20 in receptions, yards, points per game, and yards run per route. It’s nice that he’s found the paint 12 times which is fourth and the matchup looks very solid. Antonio Hamilton has been pushed into a bigger role lately and in 20 targets, he’s allowed 1.42 points per target. He’s also under 190 pounds and is just six feet tall, a physical mismatch to be sure. Tyler Lockett has the tougher route based on the statistics this year as he faces Byron Murphy. He’s only allowed 12.3 YPR and a 103.3 passer rating across 75 targets, which is not that bad. Lockett is 10th in air yards share and 12th in yards, so the upside is still there but it has been very difficult to get them right this season. 

TE – I just don’t mess with Gerald Everett and that’s never really been an issue. He only saw five targets last week and is 15th in target share on the season, while ranking under 15th in yards and receptions. With him sitting just 18th in points per game and having just four touchdowns, I’m not chomping at the bit to play him and would rather just go to Higbee for $300 more. 

D/ST – I can’t get behind the 25th ranked DVOA even though they rank 10th in points per game. They are one of only five teams to not hit 30 sacks yet and they have just 17 turnovers forced on the year. 

Cash – None 

GPP – DK, Penny, Lockett, Russ 

Cardinals (Clinched a spot, Wins NFC West with a Win and Help)

QB – Kyler Murray was one missed throw from having a monster game last week when he short-armed a would-be touchdown pass to A.J. Green, but he still went for 22.9 DraftKings points. Kyler is another player that missed some time but he’s still fourth in yards per attempt and leads in deep completion at 51.5%, he’s third in points per dropback, and fourth in points per game. Seattle’s defense is all the way down to 27th in DVOA against the pass and they let Tim Boyle score 18 DK points against them last week. Kyler is one of the only quarterbacks that are going to be expensive this week with a high ceiling. 

RB – With Arizona being at the mercy of the Rams game, the backfield is going to be dicey as far as playing time. The hope would be that the Rams game goes down to the wire and the Cards have to keep going. The practice reports are going to be important because James Conner has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and has had one limited practice since his injury. Chase Edmonds has taken over 34 carries and 13 receptions in the past two games, scoring at least 13.2 DraftKings points in each. If he were to have this backfield to himself (it would make a lot of sense to sit Conner for the postseason), Edmonds could shatter this salary. While Seattle does rank eighth in DVOA against the run, no team has allowed more receptions to running backs than Seattle at 116 and they are the only team above 900 yards receiving allowed (1,038). Edmonds has the ninth-highest target share among backs at 13.4% and that was with DeAndre Hopkins playing most of the season. 

Update – Edmonds is out, leaving Conner as the lone man in the backfield

WR – Christian Kirk is still the man in the corps, although A.J. Green has been involved as well. Kirk has 30 targets in the past three games for a 24.2% target share and he leads in air yards share at 33.3%. The salary is super appealing and we did just see St. Brown rip this team apart, which helps make Kirk even more interesting at this salary. Ugo Amadi patrols the slot for a chunk of the Seattle snaps and he’s allowed a catch rate nearing 68%. 

Green has 17 targets over the past three games and draws D.J. Reed in coverage who is at 1.47 fantasy points per target. I’m torn because I sort of want to play Antoine Wesley again as he has the same amount of targets in the last three games and he leads the team in red zone and end zone targets. That’s a big deal at $4,100 although I’ll be the first to say it does feel like you’re pressing your luck because he’s not doing a whole lot else. Those targets are so valuable though it’s hard to not consider. 

Update – Moore is out so Wesley is still in play

TE – Zach Ertz continues to get a boatload of targets without Hopkins in the offense and has totaled 33 targets in the past three games. That’s now edged out Kirk for the team lead in that span and he’s second behind Wesley in red-zone looks. Ertz has yet to drop below 11.1 DraftKings points in those three games and that’s been without the benefit of scoring a touchdown. The salary doesn’t represent the true upside that he as so I’m likely going to land here when I’m in this range. Seattle has given up nine touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league and Ertz has a shot at the paint this week. 

D/ST – The salary makes plenty of sense and they have 40 sacks with a 25.5% pressure rate. They’re in the top 10 in turnovers forced and fifth in points allowed per game, so even though the Seattle offense exploded last week, Arizona is very cheap. 

Cash – Kyler, Kirk, Ertz, D/ST 

GPP – Wesley, Green, TBD on the backs 

Cash Core

Cooper Kupp, D’Onta Foreman, James Conner, Christian Kirk

Stay tuned in Discord for updates in case we get surprise inactive at 11:30

GPP Core

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Devonta Freeman

Stacks

Seahawks/Cardinals

49ers/Rams

Titans/Texans

Bills

Bucs

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.