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FanDuel

The American Express: Initial Picks

Isaiah 3 years ago

written by Isaiah

This week the PGA Tour jumps from Hawaii to Southern California for The American Express. This format is slightly different where 2 PGA pros and 2 amateurs will be paired up each of the first 3 days, on 3 different courses. The first 3 rounds will rotate through the Stadium Course, La Quinta CC., and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The top 70 (and ties) that make it through the cut Saturday afternoon will head back to The Stadium Course a 2^nd time for Sunday’s final round.

Originally known as The Bob Hope Classic, this event has been a PGA Tour staple since 1965. The list of former winners include Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson, Jhonattan Vegas, Bill Haas, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Phil Mickelson, and the defending champion Si Woo Kim. This list should tell you that just about anyone in this field can win this event. La Quinta CC., and The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course are 2 of the 3 easiest birdie courses on the PGA Tour and I expect this to be a birdie fest event similar to the fall swing.

All 3 course are roughly 7200 yard par 72s with Bermuda greens. There are shorter par 4s and reachable par 5s throughout all 3 courses. The Pete Dye designed Stadium course (played twice) represents the most challenging with several water hazards and some architect comparisons to be made. Several golfers are Pete Dye specialists (Si Woo Kim). At The American Express we’re looking for great ball strikers (OTT + APP) that can sink enough putts to rack up a ton of birdies on easier courses. Be sure to check out the Tuesday Livestream which can be found here.

Key Metrics (in order)

SG: APP (approach)

SG: OTT (off the tee)

Birdies or Better

SG: P (putting on Bermuda)

DK scoring

You can add par 5 scoring and par 4 scoring if you like, but I think most of the golfers will be on the greens putting after making their approach shots (which we already have covered in the above metrics).

Initial Picks

Jon Rahm ($11300) and Patrick Cantlay ($10900) – If you’re paying up, you need to start here. There are hundreds of arguments each way. I lean Cantlay slightly for price and expected ownership.

Seamus Power ($9500) – It was close between him and Conners here. Power is just much better with distance for the par 5s and a much better Bermuda putter. This provides more birdies and DK scoring opportunities at The American Express. Hoping that price tag scares away some ownership because it’s pretty steep, but he hasn’t given us any reason to NOT be paying it.

Matthew Wolff ($9300) He’s a volatile California kid that has shown he can just show up strong after an extended layoff. He doesn’t have great course history here but is coming off a stellar fall swing.

Jhonattan Vegas ($8100) 3^rd in my model. The putter always holds him back but Bermuda is his favorite. If he can just finish even in putting he should be close to the leader board. Mixed results here but a T11 back in ‘18, and I think he’s in much better form more recently.

I’m going to jump down because I can make arguments for everyone but can’t list them all. I want to mention some guys in the 7K range that can make a difference for your lineups.

Adam Hadwin ($7900) – The ball striking has been suspect. He loves the American Express though. T2 (‘19), T3 (‘18), 2^nd (‘17). Great comp course history as well. Hoping his ownership is low and he found some old iron form during the break.

Taylor Moore ($7300) and Hayden Buckley ($7200) – We were waiting to see which one of the new Korn Ferry guys were gonna make a statement on the PGA Tour. You should remember these 2 guys as I see big things coming in their future. I may roster both this week at this birdie fest.

Adam Svensson ($7000) – I’ve been rostering the Canadian and he just doesn’t disappoint. Sure there’s some risk, but finished solo 7^th at The Sony last week and has a T18 here back in ‘19.

Hudson Swafford ($6700) He struggles a little on Bermuda but made the cut last week knocking the rust off with a 47^th. Won this event back in ‘17 and showed up 11^th in my model over the last 50 rounds.

Cameron Young ($6700) Another up and coming Korn Ferry guy. He’s great OTT and with the flat stick. Can rack up birdies in a hurry as well when he can get all the aspects of his game going. Won B2B’s on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, and T2 at his 2^nd PGA start at Sanderson Farms in the fall swing.

If you’re in a betting market I highly suggest you take some shots this week as it represents one of the best events for a long shot to win. Start with a first round leader dart on Sebastian Munoz (T21 in ‘20), he just always seems to open up on FIRE and can make birdies in a hurry.

WinDaily has 3 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our Tuesday night show with Sia, Joel, and Spencer (or on Apple podcasts or the win daily video hub). We’ll also have Spencer’s picks and then you can check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family. You’ll also find the Secret Weapon in Discord Wednesday night (Current Record: 47-13). If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

3 years ago 0 comments

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: American Express

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

PGA West Stadium Course

7,200 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Overseeded Poa

I want to make sure I don’t overcomplicate this process because that might do more harm than good. There will be a ton of strange quirks that we aren’t used to seeing during most stops, which can add some hesitation on the correct way to handle everything in front of us. For me, I am going to try and make as many connections between the three setups this week as I can because that is the only way in my mind to play a tournament that has a 54-hole cut and rotational nature.

The first thing that stuck out to me was that it appears as if the Bermuda grass is dormant at all tracks. If that is the case, it means we will get a Poa overseeded texture. I didn’t use that in my calculations because all the venues are easy, but let’s instead talk about what numbers I did find pertinent to my research process. All three courses are under 7,200 yards. That places them inside the 15 shortest on tour. We also see all three rank inside the bottom-15 in difficulty — that is just another way of saying they are straightforward. There is only so much we can do from a statistical perspective to get unique, but here is how I ended up weighing my model.

Total Driving (25%) – We have seen accuracy guys like Ancer find success here in the past, which is why it is being added to the equation, but I still believe distance over accuracy is the way to go because it does take away so many of the potential problems. That ended up being a 65/35 split to get total driving.
GIR Percentage Out Of Fairway Bunkers(10%) – If golfers do miss the fairways, it likely will leave them in these extensive fairway bunkers.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) -Golfers will get 16 chances to score on those holes across the three stops, and it has been the most indicative category to finding success of anything we get this week.
Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I condensed it to par-three average and bogey avoidance. You could get deeper with it and include proximity ranges, but I bypassed both. Maybe that is the incorrect mindset, but when you get courses as easy as these three, some of that almost burdens a model when you say a poor putter or bad proximity player can’t find a recipe for success. Those two stats aren’t exactly the most predictive in many ways.
Strokes Gained Total On Easy Courses Under 7,200 (25%) – Categories like this combine all three tracks and give us an easily identified blueprint.
Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye (10%) – That only applies to the Stadium Course, but once again, that is where 50% of the rounds will take place.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on our Win Daily Show on Tuesday night, “You could make Jon Rahm $12,500, and it would be acceptable.” Let’s see where the ownership goes, but there is no reason he should be this close in price to the likes of Scottie Scheffler or as close in popularity as he is to Patrick Cantlay. Rahm is the best player in every field but is especially strong in a tournament that drops off like the American Express.

Tony Finau ($10.200) – Is the price tag a little high? Sure. But it has created quite the leverage spot for Tony Finau, who might end up being the lowest owned player above $9,000 this week. Finau has posted two top-14s in his stops to the event since 2020.

Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.

$9,000 Range

Talor Gooch ($9,700) – The price and ownership might be problematic to some, but I wouldn’t let it affect my decision-making. Gooch is priced where he should be for the week, and I think we need to start accepting that this could be who he is as a player moving forward.

Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types

$8,000 Range

Justin Rose ($8,600) – Justin Rose ranks inside the top-10 on easy courses and also has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. I have an outright ticket on him at 55/1.

Si Woo Kim ($8,300) – Pete Dye specialist? Check. Good on short courses? Check. I haven’t given up hope that Si Woo Kim turns everything around very shortly.

Carlos Ortiz ($8,200) – @StixPicks has ‘Hammer Kid’ locked Carlos Ortiz to come top-40. I have never seen him lose on a selection like that, which is good enough for me to roll with Ortiz in all game types this week.

Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Jason Day ($7,300) – Perhaps my favorite play above $7,000 on DraftKings this week is Jason Day. The problem with me saying this is that I have cried wolf for three straight years that every tournament was the Day show, even when he wasn’t in the field. Hence, why it might lose some of its luster after a while, but this is legitimately one of the first times that it isn’t just an act on my part. It kind of goes with what I have been saying about the model mimicking DraftKings pricing to a T, and then you get this massive deviation here with Day, who ranks 9th for me on my model. The Aussie is the number one golfer on short courses since 2018 – a time frame that does include the bad version of himself. I am legitimately encouraged by his potential this time around.

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)

$6,000 Range

J.T. Poston ($6,400) – Three top-37s to go along with two missed cuts since 2017. Part of the reason for his success is the par-five scoring. He ranks inside the top-30 in this field

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800

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3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/18

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

After the majority of teams were in action last night, Tuesday’s NBA slate will begin the theme of the week: a big slate followed by a small one. With only two games on tap tonight, your strategy versus the field and raw points will be the key to success. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: Balanced, considering there are only 2-3 studs on this NBA slate.

Adam: It sure appears to be a slate that is light on the value and the studs on the slate are not guaranteed to have monster fantasy outputs, so it likely will be the balanced approach tonight.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: Truth be told, there is no lock for me on this slate. Steph Curry has the clear-cut ceiling amongst everyone available, but a matchup versus Detroit doesn’t jump off as the best game environment for him to get there. If playing Randle, it makes sense to run it back with one of the TWolves; your lineup simply has to tell a story tonight in the sense that if x happens, then y will be the outcome to hit a true ceiling.

Adam: I don’t think there is one. Surely, you can play Steph Curry and I would be moderately surprised if he isn’t the highest raw points scorer on the slate. The question is if he’s worth playing in a game that is almost a 16 point spread at the salary with no clear value picks. Playing Steph is not fully worth it if 2-3 players you force into the lineup to get to him flop.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: It may seem crazy to fade Curry tonight given the fact that he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the player pool, but I’ll be playing two Warriors rather than Curry to still get exposure to the highest-scoring team on the slate.

Adam: It is Curry. To be clear, if you’re playing any MME style this evening (20-max, 150-max), you do NOT fully fade Curry. It’s just the understanding he may not be in the optimal lineup if he scores 45-50 DraftKings points and potentially sits the fourth quarter. We do preach to not factor in a blowout, but a 15.5 point spread is an exception and should be paid attention to.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: I’m not a fan of any of the studs right now, but I’ll side with a double Knicks combo here in Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley, should Kemba Walker be ruled out.

Adam: This is a risky approach but I do have my eyes on Jonathan Kuminga tonight. You have a potential blowout on tap and Kuminga has played at least 20 minutes in the past four games and scored at least 23 DraftKings points. He’s still under $4,500 and if he plays near 24-26 minutes, he could wind up being a strong value. If the Pistons manage to stay close, there is serious flop potential. It behooves the Warriors to have some young legs in players like Kuminga contribute through the long season with their championship aspirations. He could be a key player to build with Randle and a T’Wolves player in a three-point spread.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Klay Thompson has his first 20-point outing of the season and finds himself in the optimal lineup.
Adam: Julius Randle goes for 20/15/5 tonight and logs over 50 DraftKings points.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/17

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

We have a ton of teams in action today across three different NBA slates, and we’ve got them all covered for you. It’s a Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Early Slate (12:30pm EST)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics (-6)

Both teams are relatively healthy in this one, with the Celtics only missing Marcus Smart (health and safety protocols). This game environment is the worst of the three, with the Celtics and Pelicans ranking 25th and 20th, respectively, in pace, while Boston also ranks 6th in defensive rating; there won’t be too much exposure from this one in our player pool. However, with Marcus Smart being out, there will be notable interest in Dennis Schroder, who will see an uptick in minutes, but Boston’s overall production on offense remains stagnant with Smart off the floor because of his limited role; Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Robert Williams, and Al Horford’s numbers are all relatively equal with or without Smart on the floor, but the minutes in this rotation will be more condensed tonight.

On the flip side of this game, the Pelicans have little appeal on this NBA slate despite being well priced. Jonas Valanciunas makes for an intriguing target as the second option in double center builds paired with the top stud on the slate, but the Celtics front court has been stout around the rim on both sides of the court. Josh Hart makes for a fine play in the mid range but offers little upside at his price tag, but it’s worth mentioning that taking a flier on Nickeil Alexander-Walker at near minimum price could pay off on such a small slate.

Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks (-2)

With the Hornets ranking 26th in defensive rating while also being 2nd in pace, their games always make for starting points on any given NBA slate. While LaMelo Ball’s price has come down, his minutes have been the furthest from consistent ever since the return of Terry Rozier to the lineup, who is one of my main targets in this one, along with Miles Bridges. The two have 22.8% and 21.5% usage rates in their last six games, respectively, and have been cogs to the team’s six-game winning streak, averaging 22.8 PPG and 20.2 PPG, respectively.

Playing at MSG is something any professional dreams of, but that may be coming to an end for some of the Knicks on the roster, with the team looking to make moves ahead of the NBA trade deadline. Both Julius Randle and Mitch Robinson are rumored to be potentially on the move, and the two get one of the best matchups in all of fantasy basketball, as they take on a Hornets defense that ranks 29th against opposing centers, 29th to opposing power forwards, 30th against opposing point forwards, and 18th in points allowed in the paint per game.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards (+3)

All of my NBA lineups will begin with Joel Embiid tonight, with the MVP candidate looking to make a run for his struggling franchise. Embiid comes into this one with 30 or more points in nine of his last ten games, while sporting a ridiculous 38.1% usage rate on a 31.8/10.2/4.5 scoring line on 55.5% shooting. With both Shake Milton and Matisse Thybulle ruled out for this one, both Seth Curry and Tyrese Maxey make for a good supporting cast in our lineups, while Furkan Korkmaz and Georges Niang will see increased run.

The Washington side of this game stems on the availability of Bradley Beal, who could make his return to the lineup tonight. Should he evidently be ruled out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyle Kuzma will be priorities in the mid range of the pricing grid, as the two see 4.4% and 3.7% increases in usage rate, respectively, while also having their FPPM increase from 0.98 to 1.16, and from 1.00 to 1.12, respectively.

Afternoon Slate (3:30pm EST)

Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-3)

Disaster struck for the Nets when Kevin Durant went down with a knee injury in their last game, and the MVP candidate will now be sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks. All signs point to James Harden being a lock on this slate, as one of, if not the most prolific offensive player on our generation sees his usage rate increase from 28.5% to 34.4% with Durant off the floor, while also seeing his FPPM increase form 1.36 to 1.55. Moreover, we can also consider rostering Kyrie Irving, who gets to play his former franchise tonight in his fourth appearance of the season, where the former #1 overall pick has sported a 25.9% usage rate and has posted a 17.7/5/3.7 scoring line on 45.8% shooting, while logging just over 32 minutes per appearance.

This game is far more intriguing than simply playing James Harden with or without Kyrie Irving or any other Brooklyn Net; rather, there is a ton of upside on the Cavaliers side of the ball as well. Look out, but the Cavs are now the 6th seed in the East and are only 2.5 games back of first, having won seven of their last eight. Darius Garland has been balling down the stretch, sporting a 27.5% usage rate while posting a 20.8/4.4/9.9 scoring line on 43.4% shooting. I also have a lot of interest in Jarrett Allen, should Garland be out of price range; Allen has been having an all-star campaign this season, sporting an 18.2% usage rate while averaging a 16.6/11 double-double, including a 15.6/12 average in the Cavs’ eight-game stretch. Facing his former franchise, Allen will see little-to-no challenge on the interior of both ends of the floor, while the Nets rank 16th in points allowed in the paint per game.

Indiana Pacers @ LA Clippers (-2)

Moving forward, a lot of our value plays will come from the Clippers rotation when they’re on the NBA slate. With Paul George potentially joining Kawhi Leonard on the sidelines for the remainder of the season, there are more than enough minutes and offensive production to go around. Beginning with the trio of Reggie Jackson, Amir Coffey, and Eric Bledsoe, the Clippers backcourt rotation will be on display nightly, as they are playing a smaller lineup every game. In addition, both Terrence Mann and Marcus Morris will be vital on the wings, while veterans Ivica Zubac, Serge Ibaka, and Nic Batum man the paint on both ends of the floor. My interest in this Clippers is focused on the backcourt, with Amir Coffey and Terrence Mann being the main targets, followed by Eric Bledsoe and Reggie Jackson. Seeing consistent minutes in an ever-so-confusing rotation for Ty Lue, Amir Coffey has 18 or more points in three of his last four, while getting a friendly matchup versus Caris LeVert and Chris Duarte.

With Myles Turner (foot) being ruled out tonight, Domantas Sabonis becomes a prime stud to pair with James Harden, should you be able to fit both in without compromising the rest of your lineups. With Turner off the floor, Sabonis will now see the bulk of minutes at the ‘5’ against a Clippers team that ranks 26th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game while already logging nearly 35 minutes per game and posting an 18.9/11.9/4.7 scoring line on 57.5% shooting.

Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

The Bulls will be in tough versus one of the hottest teams in the NBA, being without Lonzo Ball and Zach Lavine on the road. With both of his teammates off the floor, DeMar DeRozan sees an astronomical increase in usage rate, from 30.8% to 40%, while also seeing his FPPM increase from 1.18 to 1.32. The shot volume will certainly be there, making him one of the premier plays on the slate, but his price is also in the Sabonis range, where I favor the latter. Rather, I’ll get exposure to the Bulls offense in the form of Coby White, who will see a large uptick in minutes and offensive production alongside DeRozan, and offers a ton of upside with a 4.1% increase in usage rate, while Ayo Dosunmu will be one of the most popular value plays, and rightfully so.

While Ja Morant will likely be out of my price range considering I’m locking in James Harden, there are other enticing options on the Grizzlies side of the ball. Desmond Bane has been someone that we’ve been talking about since the season tipped off, and there’s no reason to stop anytime soon considering the sophomore has scored in double figures in 13 straight games. Moreover, while Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. will continue manning the paint for the bulk of the minutes, there’s plenty to love about the Grizzlies bench, especially with the way Brandon Clarke has been playing as of late; the big man has now found a comfortable spot in the rotation, with 20 or more minutes in eight of his last nine, where he’s posted a 14/7.2/1.4 scoring line on 67.5% shooting. Others, including John Konchar, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones, and De’Anthony Melton will be worth a look on such a small slate, but we’ll turn to our projections to see who grades out best.

Main Slate (7pm EST)

Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic (+1.5)

While both the Trail Blazers and the Magic will be getting reinforcements on their respective side of the ball, there is still plenty to love in this first game of the Main NBA slate. Beginning with Portland, who sees CJ McCollum returning to the lineup, gone are the days of locking in Anfernee Simons, who will take a notable hit in offensive production with McCollum returning; the price point simply does not make sense with primary ball handling duties being taken away. However, should Norman Powell (health and safety protocols) miss another game for Portland, there will room for both Nassir Little and Ben McLemore to pick up extra minutes on the wing.

On the Magic side of the ball, nearly every player has a discounted price tag as opposed to their median over the last week, and we need to take advantage as a whole since they line up versus a Portland defense that ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating, while also being top 10 in adjusted pace with McCollum on the court. That being said, the Magic are also missing Wendell Carter Jr. (hamstring), which makes Franz Wagner a premier target for our exposure to this first game; Wagner has been having a tremendous rookie campaign, and sports a 21.4% usage rate on the season with posting a 15.5/4.7/2.9 scoring line on 45.4% shooting. Look for Chuma Okeke and Terrence Ross to also pick up solid minutes, but the return of Mo Bamba limits the former’s ceiling, while Cole Anthony remains the focal point of this Magic offense at a reduced price tag.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat (-3)

Although the greatest Raptor of all time, Kyle Lowry, will not be suiting up tonight (personal), there is significance to this game on both sides. For one, Fred VanVleet has already said how much it means to him to share an NBA court together, and while they won’t be able to do so tonight, I still love the idea of pairing him with one of Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. FVV has been on a tear as of late, sporting a 26.7% usage rate over his last 11 games, where he’s posted a 27.9/4.5/7.5 scoring line on 43.9% shooting, logging over 38 minutes per contest for Nick Nurse. With the Heat’s second best perimeter defender in Lowry being ruled out, FVV will be the focal point as opposed to Pascal Siakam on the inside, whom will be tasked with the potential return of Bam Adebayo.

On the Heat side of the ball, as I mentioned above, Jimmy Butler will be a prime focus for me on this slate. The all-NBA talent is simply too cheap for his upside; peripheral statistics are never an issue for Butler, who comes into this one averaging over 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on the season, while also providing a scoring punch with 22.6 PPG. The Toronto zone defense is a daunting task, especially with rookie sensation Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby on the wings, but Butler has proven to be efficient when not being guarded one on one.

OKC Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

This game will largely be off the board for me. With Kristaps Porzingis making his return to the Mavericks lineup, Luka Doncic is simply too expensive for me to stomach in a matchup versus an OKC team that ranks 16th in the NBA in pace while also being 15th in defensive rating. Should you target anyone in this game, I side with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who offers tremendous upside for the upper mid range of the pricing grid, having sported a 29.2% usage rate on the season and comes into this one with three straight 20+ point performances, including 30+ in two of those three. Should you need the safer floor for your build, Josh Giddey, who has now scored in double figures in seven straight games while also averaging 7.4 RPG and 6.3 APG on the season, is a prime candidate for your NBA lineups tonight, especially when facing a Mavericks team that is far from elite versus secondary ball handlers.

Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs (+4.5)

The tilt between the Spurs and Suns will be a focal point for our NBA lineups, not only because all the Suns are priced down, but because the status of Deandre Ayton, who left the team’s last game versus the Pistons with an ankle injury, remains up in the air. Should be eventually be ruled out, look for a combination of JaVale McGee and Jalen Smith to pop in our projections, while Jae Crowder will continue to see extended run, should Cam Johnson (ankle) miss another game for his team.

On the Spurs side of the ball, there will be no surprise when I say that I have extreme interest in Dejounte Murray at the top of the pricing grid. Having a career season, Murray comes into tonight’s game sporting a 26.2% usage rate on the season, including a 31.3% rate in his last seven, where he’s posted a 24.6/8.3/9.4 scoring line on 48.3% shooting. While the return of both Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl will scare the field off his daunting price tag, Murray has seen a season-high average in attempts in this recent stretch, putting up over 20 FGA per night in his last ten.

Utah Jazz @ LA Lakers (+4.5)

With the Jazz on the second half of a back-to-back, we could have some players sit out, including Mike Conley, but we likely will not have that news before lock. That being said, both Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson are players of interest in this game for me, facing a Lakers team that not only ranks 3rd in the NBA in pace, but also ranks 29th versus primary ball handlers. While LeBron James will always be an elite play on almost any given NBA slate, especially with Anthony Davis (knee) still out for the Lakers, Utah’s 4th ranked adjusted defense (with Rudy Gobert on the floor) is not one I want to attack with so many options on this slate.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16

With the NFL playoffs in full swing on Sunday, the NBA countered with just three games so this is not a slate to play cash games. Ghost and I are going with the roundtable approach for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16 to help find the green screens tonight!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”

Ghost: I’ll be taking a balanced approach with one stud at the top of the pricing grid, with most of my exposure being in the Sacramento/Houston game.

Adam: I’m planning on going right back to the well as far as stacking up the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, at least as much as we can. No player is more than $8,100 on DraftKings and we’ll have a couple of value pieces along the way to fit players. It’s fairly easy to fit at least 4-5 players from this game.

Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”

Ghost: One of De’Aaron Fox or Tyrese Haliburton paired with Christian Wood.

Adam: The duo of De’Aaron Fox and Christian Wood. While Nikola Jokic is on the slate, the game stack from Sacramento is just way too appealing and these players can match what Jokic puts out on a point per dollar basis.

Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”

Ghost: Karl-Anthony Towns just doesn’t carry a lot of intrigue for me in this game, and while he can certainly exploit a Golden State defense that will be without Draymond Green, he simply does not carry the same upside as Donovan Mitchell for far less salary, or Nikola Jokic at the top of the pricing grid.

Adam: While Nikola Jokic is on the slate, the game stack from Sacramento is just way too appealing and some players can match what Jokic puts out on a point per dollar basis. I’m never going to say that you can’t play him, but the Fox/Wood combo costs $16,100 and can score around 100 DraftKings points with potential for 100+. If Jokic has a normal game of 60-65 DraftKings points, I’d rather have the combo.

Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”

Ghost: Two of Fox, Haliburton, Wood, and Donovan Mitchell will be optimal tonight, and I’ll be looking to get three of them with Jordan Poole as my main value.

Adam: Jordan Poole and the Fox/Wood duo. With Steph Curry and Draymond Green sitting out for the Warriors and Klay Thompson still not playing his full complement of minutes, Poole has a 32.1% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. He’s not even $6,000 on DraftKings and fits perfectly in the stack.

Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”

Ghost: Jordan Poole carries the Warriors to a win behind his 30-5-5 performance.

Adam: The Kings and Rockets combine for over 255 real points running it back from Friday night.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15

We get nine games tonight but I’ll immediately put a word of caution here – of the 18 teams in action tonight, nine of them played last night which will likely throw a major wrench into this slate. Things will almost certainly be a moving target through the day and up to lock, so just be aware. Let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15 and start highlighting paths to green and be ready to adjust as needed!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Games To Target

Trail Blazers at Wizards

Blazers – It’s a rare night for me but Jusuf Nurkic is a strong target despite carrying a salary of nearly $8,000. The Blazers are still missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Norman Powell which means Nurkic has a 24.3% usage rate and 1.29 points per minute. That latter mark leads the team and the 29% assist rate is extremely high as well. Washington sitting in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint is a big bump for him, even though he hasn’t been the heaviest paint player in the league.

The decisions start to come in with a player like Anfernee Simons, who is finally priced up and likely has very little ceiling left at his salary. I’m more likely to go towards Nassir Little or Ben McLemore, as both players have at least 0.78 points per minute and will be called upon to play a ton of minutes tonight.

Wizards – We talked last time about Spencer Dinwiddie playing his first back-to-back and it resulted in a very mediocre fantasy game. Now that he’s more on a normal schedule and facing the team that has the worst defensive rating in basketball, I’d play him ahead of Simons about 90 times out of 100. Bradley Beal is out and Dinwiddie has 1.16 fantasy points per minute, a 26% usage rate, and a 36.6% assist rate. Kyle Kuzma has shown upside and does have 1.14 fantasy points per minute, but the salary can be tough to swallow. You want 50 DraftKings points and the path for Kuzma to get there is narrow, even in the matchup.

Bulls at Celtics

Bulls – This is a projection but last night saw Zach LaVine hurt his knee four minutes into the game. He fouled, left the game, and then was ruled out shortly after so the assumption would have to be that he doesn’t suit up tonight. He also is scheduled for an MRI today so the writing is on the wall, although the Bulls do think he dodged a serious injury.

The chalkiest player on the slate would potentially be DeMar DeRozan because, without LaVine and Alex Caruso on the floor, DDR has a 41.4% usage rate and 1.32 points per minute with a true shooting of just 51.7%. For context, his seasonal rate is 57.8% and he’s priced as LaVine will be active. On the less expensive side, Lonzo Ball and Nikola Vucevic (under $9,000 is still a strong salary)both have usages of 16.9% and 29% respectively and both are over 1.02 points per minute. Boston is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint, which helps Vuc quite a bit.

Celtics – As of now, the Celtics are healthy but the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is quite cheap as both are under $9,500. Tatum is always my favorite when picking and holds a lead in the fantasy points per minute and usage. They would be my only two targets as a run-back unless someone sits out (possibly Al Horford but Robert Williams isn’t coming cheap).

Pelicans at Nets

Pelicans – This is quite the spot for Jonas Valanciunas because the Nets have zero interior presence without LaMarcus Aldridge and My Name Is Jonas has 9.3 paint touches per game and 9.5 points in the paint per game, both inside the top 10 in the league. He’s also one of just four players that have more than 20 rebound chances per game and he’s barely over $8,000. Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart can be considered, but are getting up there in salary. JoVal is only $1,300 more than Hart and that’s an easy pick for me.

Nets – There will be no Kyrie Irving so it’s way easier to play Kevin Durant or James Harden. The latter has been coming out of his funk, getting to the line (up to third in FTA across the league), and leading the league in points scored in isolation. The Pelicans are in the bottom eight in points per possession against that play type so I give him a slight lean since we’ve been playing guards against Pelicans all year long. In GPP-only, Patty Mills has fallen to a salary that you can throw him in as a cheap guard. The Pelicans allow the second-highest FG% from 3-point distance and Mills is shooting 42.1%, the highest among any player in the top-25 in 3-point attempts.

Note – Instead of teams to monitor in the article, we’ll just have to pay attention to the injury reports with all the back-to-backs tonight.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Friday Night Forecheck for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 14)

allenjesse24@yahoo.com 3 years ago

written by allenjesse24@yahoo.com

Friday 1/14 NHL Breakdown

Welcome back to Win Daily Sports’ Friday Night Forecheck! The NHL schedule continues to be pretty unbalanced, so after a giant, 11 game slate, we have a small 3 game slate tonight. This slate has a couple of very obvious spots, so expect heavy chalk. We will do what we can to find the low owned gems to get you to the top! Good luck!

Goalies

Kaapo Kahkonen – Minnesota Wild: The Wild host the Ducks tonight, and this is a nice looking play. The Ducks have only been scoring 1.4 goals per game over their last five away games, and Kahkonen has been decent over his last five. Especially if the Wild get some of their weapons back tonight (they should), this becomes a strong play.

Sergei Bobrovsky – Florida Panthers: The Panthers are hosting the Stars tonight, and the Stars are a tale of two teams. On home ice, they have been scoring almost FIVE goals per game over their last five home games. On the road, however, they have only been scoring 1.4 goals per game over their last five road games. On top of that, they are giving up 3.4 goals per game over their last 5 road games, making Bob the best play on the slate tonight.

Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – None: This slate feels pretty straightforward. You could realistically go with Darcy Kuemper (COL), but the upside there feels pretty limited. The Coyotes have been playing well recently, but they are a much better team at home than on the road. With the way that Arizona shoots, and the risk that Kuemper has brought this year, one or two goals could crack him pretty easily, so it feels like the Kuemper play is just too limited. Karel Vejmelka (ARI) just put up a 40+ save, 1 goal against win the other night against Toronto. While he is good for games like that every once in a while, visiting Colorado does not seem like a spot for him to do it again. Anthony Stolarz (ANH) and Jake Oettinger (DAL) are both on the road, and Stolarz is the better play there, so you can make a case for him, but the focus should really be on Kahkonen and Bob for the upside.

Lines to Build Around

These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Colorado Avalanche Power Play – Nathan MacKinnon/Nazem Kadri/Valeri Nichushkin/Mikko Rantanen/Cale Makar: This, just…wow. This should absolutely be a smash spot for an already high octane unit that can handle just about any team in the league. The addition of Nichushkin makes this slightly more affordable. Expect this unit to be SUPER chalk tonight, for very good reason.

Florida Panthers Power Play – Aleksander Barkov/Sam Reinhart/Jonathan Huberdeau/Anthony Duclair/Aaron Ekblad: This unit is in a fantastic spot as well, as they take on the Stars on home ice. Barkov/Huberdeau/Ekblad is always a great trio to run from the Panthers, as they are almost always producing. The second line straight up (Sam Bennett/Anthony Duclair/Jonathan Huberdeau) is a slightly better even strength matchup, but you can get access to them via the power play.

High Risk Lines

These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Anaheim Ducks Power Play – Rickard Rakell/Trevor Zegras/Sonny Milano/Ryan Getzlaf/Cam Fowler: The Ducks’ power play has a very nice matchup, as they are currently ranked 5th in the league. Minnesota has been taking a bunch of penalties, so there should be ample opportunity for them tonight. They are high risk because the Ducks have been struggling to score of late, especially on the road.

Minnesota Wild 1 – Ryan Hartman/Kirill Kaprizov/Mats Zuccarello/Calen Addison: The Wild appear to be getting back their weapons from injury and COVID, so this is a great spot for them tonight. If Addison does in fact slot into the power play, he is a great value play.

Minnesota Wild 3 – Victor Rask/Kevin Fiala/Matthew Boldy: If you want to get off of a chalkier Minnesota play and still get access to them, this is a good play. Boldy has been playing well in his first few games, and this line has a decent matchup at even strength.

Colorado Avalanche 3 – Alex Newhook/JT Compher/Logan O’Connor: This third line for the Avs has been good all year, and is a little better with Aube-Kubel, but he appears to be out tonight. Even so, this is a great way to get much lower ownership on a massive total. Newhook and O’Connor are slippery and are going to be good in this league as they grow and improve. Compher slots into the second power play, so there is a good upside to playing him as well.

Honorable Mentions: ANH4, ARIPP, DAL1

Notes: This slate feels like it is going to come down to getting the MIN/ANH game correct. Getting the correct stack to go with COL/FLA will be a great approach. Another really good GPP approach is to play contrarian and fade the super obvious chalk. As we saw last night, this can work at times, and on three games, it makes sense. Just remember, fading the obvious plays is an all or nothing approach.

Value Options – DraftKings

Center: Alex Newhook ($3000) – Colorado Avalanche

Wing: Patric Hornqvist ($2900) – Florida Panthers

Defense: Samuel Girard ($3900) – Colorado Avalanche

Value Options – FanDuel

Center: Alex Newhook ($3900) – Colorado Avalanche

Wing: Jordan Greenway ($4000) – Minnesota Wild

Defense: Esa Lindell ($4400) – Dallas Stars

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Cash is not recommended on a three game slate

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Cash is not recommended on a three game slate

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/14

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Another crazy week in the NBA is coming to an end, but not before some heavy matchups on a Friday night before the NFL Playoffs kick off on Saturday. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

There is a lot to love in the first game of tonight’s NBA slate. With the Orlando Magic missing Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba being questionable to play after missing Wednesday’s game, there could be a possible value play in Robin Lopez versus the league’s worst defensive front court. Otherwise, all of Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Terrence Ross, and Chuma Okeke make for intriguing targets in one of the best game environments on the slate, but the return of Jalen Suggs does complicate things a tad, so we’ll wait for some news throughout the day before confirming. On the flip side of the ball, with Kelly Oubre Jr. still in health and safety protocols, the Hornets will likely continue running a tight rotation of Mason Plumlee, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, and LaMelo Ball, with Cody Martin and PJ Washington being the first two guys off the bench. We’d ideally need one to be ruled out before tip, but should all the Hornets’ primary options be active, we can consider Terry Rozier in tournaments, who is reasonably priced despite scoring 17 or more points in his last five, where he’s sported a 22.3% usage rate while posting a 23.6/4.6/4.2 scoring line on 53.7% shooting, including 48.8% from behind the arc.

Golden State Warriors

While the Warriors were in tough yesterday on the road versus Milwaukee, things won’t get any easier tonight on the second half of back-to-back in a matchup versus the Bulls. Nonetheless, there will be some value to be had from this rotation, as both Klay Thompson (rest) and Gary Payton II (back injury) have already been ruled out; look for Steph Curry to return to form in an easier matchup, while Jordan Poole will likely slot back into the starting 2-guard spot, in addition to extra minutes for Otto Porter Jr.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend

We are into one of the best weekends of football on the season with six games spread over three days! One aspect that is going to be important is late swap. With no overlap in the games, you can judge how your lineup is doing game by game and adjust as needed. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend and see what spots we’re going after to find the green screens!

Raiders at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Bengals -5)

Raiders

QB – Take about not getting any respect, Derek Carr is cheaper than Gardner Minshew for the Eagles. While I’m not exactly advocating for Carr and dying on that hill, the salary is interesting for a quarterback that could approach 40 passing attempts and has his offense as healthy as it can be at this juncture. While it is true that he suffered a lot when they were missing multiple starters, one came back last week. It didn’t pay immediate dividends but Cincinnati is 24th in DVOA against the pass, 21st in yards per attempt allowed, and 26th in completion rate. Carr was seventh in yards per attempt this season and sixth in true completion rate while sitting fifth in yards. The touchdowns weren’t great at just 23 and that helps explain ranking 26th in points per dropback. With his tight end back, he’s interesting in builds where you’re focused on getting as many skill players as you can.

RB – I’ll be honest, it’s a bit tough to sell me on Josh Jacobs as the second-highest salary for a back on the slate. There are so many strong players on this slate that Jacobs and his lesser role in the passing game now is more on the back-burner. The Raiders have more components of the offense back so I don’t think he’s going to get the same work in the passing game and over the past four weeks, he only has 13 total targets. Cincinnati finished the year 13th in DVOA against the run, 10th in rushing yards allowed to backs, and 13th in yards per carry. With Vegas coming in as five-point dogs, the passing game is likely at the forefront and Jacobs is expensive in the context of the slate.

WR – The duo of Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones is still interesting even with the return of the star tight end and both players saw at least five targets last week, although both were secondary targets. Renfrow got all of the attention in the past few weeks and that makes sense with a 23.8% target share and over 125 PPR points since Week 12 when Waller was hurt. He’s also playing a little under 65% of his snaps from the slot and that would have Bengals corner Mike Hilton facing him for a good portion of those snaps. Hilton has allowed a 72% catch rate across 76 targets along with a 108.4 passer rating so the matchup is excellent for Renfrow. Jones was basically tied for targets with Renfrow from Week 12 on but could draw some of Chidobe Awuzie on the boundary, who allowed a 54.8% catch rate and just an 89.2 passer rating. Jones is likely only a deep GPP option while Renfrow is fine across the board, though not a primary target.

TE – It was a tough first game back for Darren Waller with just 4.2 DraftKings points but the nine targets are much more important. The connection wasn’t there but Carr had no hesitation to pepper Waller with targets and that should not come as a surprise. Waller finished eighth in targets among tight ends this year despite playing just 11 games and his 24.2% target share was third at the position. This is also a position that the Bengals struggled with a bit, as they gave up the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most yards along with eight scores. I think there could be some very strong builds with value backs and the double-TE approach this week, with Waller more than in play at his salary.

D/ST – Playing the Raiders defense is not the most ideal play on paper, as they rank just 17th in total DVOA and finished middle of the pack with 35 sacks. The Bengals offensive line has been an issue at times since they allowed the most sacks in football (only team over 50 sacks on their starting quarterback) but I’m not sure they get enough sacks to be willing to take the risk. They ranked 26th in points allowed per game and were tied for the third-fewest turnovers, so the avenues for fantasy points appear to be limited.

Cash – Waller, Renfrow

GPP – Carr, Jacobs, Jones, D/ST

Bengals

QB – Joe Burrow is one of the hottest quarterbacks to enter the playoffs with two games combining for 971 yards, four touchdowns, and zero turnovers. That helped propel him to sixth in yards, first in yards per attempt, second in true completion rate, and eighth in touchdowns in addition to sixth in points per dropback. The Bengals feel like one of the most dangerous offenses in the postseason and Vegas is just 21st in DVOA against the pass to go along with 22nd in completion rate allowed. What they really did a great job of this year was holding the yards per attempt low at just 6.3 yards, the sixth-best in the league. The challenge for Burrow is to rectify that because, in the first matchup, Vegas held him to 148 passing yards and 5.1 yards per attempt. Those were both the lowest of the season for Burrow, but I don’t think that holds up for a second game.

RB – If we’re spending up on running back, Joe Mixon would be my choice over Jacobs. He’s a home favorite to start and Mixon has some very safe volume with the third-most carries, fifth-most red zone touches, third-most rush yards, and he asked on 42 receptions. Among playoff teams, only Najee Harris has more carries and he’s seventh in receptions. It wouldn’t be my full reason to play him but he did get the Raiders for 123 rushing yards in Week 11 and Vegas is 10th in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt allowed. The sheer volume leaves Mixon as a prime option if that’s where you want to funnel the salary.

WR – Seeing as how the Raiders held Ja’Marr Chase to one of his worst games of the season outside of a touchdown, he’s surely chomping at the bit for a bit of redemption. In the last two games that mattered, Chase saw 22 total targets and totaled 391 yards with three touchdowns. Casey Hayward would likely be tasked with holding Chase in check here and Hayward has had a strong season with a 58.8% catch rate allowed and 1.47 points per target. He did also allow 13 yards per reception so that is interesting because Chase was second in yards per reception at 18.0 and eighth in yards per route at 2.71.

Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd come cheaper than Chase and Higgins is the one that has generally possessed the higher upside and had more targets by 16 and a higher target share at 23.9% to 18.4% for Boyd. Higgins also rivaled Chase in red-zone and end zone targets even though Chase scored 13 times compared to just six for Higgins. Corner Brandon Facyson should see more of Higgins and he’s at 1.75 points per target while Nate Hobbs mans the slot 84% of the time with a 100.6 passer rating allowed and 1.55 points per target. We know full well that Chase and Higgins can wreck any given slate but I will say I like some spots better. The Bengals overall feel like I want one player, but may not go overboard and it might come down to who fits the build. In this game, I would take Higgins over Renfrow but I do have a preference for another elite receiver ahead of Chase.

TE – The position is loaded this weekend with receiver-level plays, so it’s not likely that I’ll end up with C.J. Uzomah. His 12.3% target share was 24th and he finished the season 18th in receptions and 20th in yards. Since he only saw six red-zone targets all season, the touchdown equity is likely not going to be there to make up the difference between the other tight ends on this slate. The Raiders were one of only three teams to give up 10 or more touchdowns so Uzomah has that going for him for the matchup, but his offense may not be likely to take advantage of it.

D/ST – The Bengals defense is moderately interesting because Carr has been brought down 40 times, tied for the fifth-most and Cincy was top 10 in sacks this season. They were also just 19th in total DVOA and 17th in points allowed so this was far from a dominant unit but once we get to the playoffs, almost every defense is either going to be in an imperfect spot and/or too expensive to build with. I’m very much building a lineup I like and then worrying about the defense so the Bengals are in play as a home favorite.

Cash – Mixon, Burrow, Chase, Higgins

GPP – Boyd, D/ST

Patriots at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -4)

Patriots

QB – Of all 12 quarterbacks on this slate, Mac Jones could be the last one I would play. He just has not gotten done for fantasy, even with his positive traits as a real-life quarterback. The weather could be a factor here and even if it isn’t, Jones was just the QB18 and he was 25th in points per game and 23rd in points per dropback. In the one game where he actually threw the ball against Buffalo, he showed exactly why the Patriots didn’t let him throw in the first game. He went 14-32 with two INT’s and 7.1 DraftKings Points, and that’s in the outcomes here again. Buffalo was first in DVOA against the pass, first in completion rate allowed, and first in yards per attempt allowed. That is far from ideal and this Patriots offense is not built to sling it around right now, even if the weather was perfect.

RB – With the weather report calling for temperatures hovering around zero degrees, the Patriots may try to replicate the success they had against the Bills in the first matchup. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson ran over the Buffalo defense for a combined 189 rushing yards and a narrow victory. They are 4.5 point dogs and the issue really is the Patriots being able to stop the Buffalo offense. Harris is the preferred target but you have to believe the Patriots can utilize this game plan because Harris only has 18 total receptions. If they have to pass, he’s going to flop. He is 12th in red-zone touches this year and fifth in total touchdowns, so the upside is there but the downside is as well. Buffalo finished 11th in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt allowed but they have shown cracks in some games.

WR – I have virtually no enthusiasm here for the Patriots receiving corps in a very difficult matchup, bad weather, and an iffy quarterback. Buffalo only allowed 12 passing touchdowns on the season and even though Jakobi Meyers is extremely affordable, he faces Taron Johnson in the slot for the majority of his snaps and Johnson allowed a 48.3% catch rate and 1.24 points per target. They are both top 15 marks among corners, which speaks to Johnson’s ability. Levi Wallace will man one of the boundary positions he’s also in the top 20 in points per target and catch rate allowed. This is a bad spot for Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as well and is one of the easier spots to eliminate in my view.

TE – Hunter Henry is in the Uzomah category for me in that I’m not looking his way all that much. He is different than Uzomah because Henry finished second at the position with nine touchdowns but outside the top 15 in a lot of other metrics among his position. He did squeak into 13th in yards but just 17th in receptions, 18th in targets, and 18th in target share. Only two teams gave up fewer touchdowns to tight ends than the Bills, and that takes plenty of appeal away from Henry right away. Even in the second matchup against the Bills where the Patriots threw the ball, he only had one reception for nine yards. Henry is cheap but does not appear to have the upside on paper, let alone factoring in the weather.

D/ST – Depending on just how bad the weather is as we get closer, New England is the best unit statistically that is under $2,800 on DraftKings. It’s important to note they got smashed in the last meeting against Buffalo and wound up scoring negative fantasy points, the only time this season that it happened. Overall, they were fourth in total DVOA, second in points allowed, and they tied for the third-most turnovers generated. Having said that, this is a dynamite offense they are facing and the only way you look here is if you think the weather really impacts the game plan of both offenses.

Cash – None, Harris is the closest

GPP – D/ST, Stevenson, Meyers

Bills

QB – I really have zero fears about Josh Allen as far as the matchup goes, even though New England has been excellent this season. They are second behind the Bills in all the defensive categories we just talked about other than DVOA, where New England is third. Still, Allen carved them up a few weeks ago for 33 DraftKings Points and if the passing game is struggling, I expect them to make one significant adjustment – using Allen’s legs. In the first game where the weather killed both teams, it was a big surprise that Allen only had six rushing attempts. He’s an elite weapon in that aspect of the game, finishing third in attempts, yards, and first in red-zone attempts. Even the following week against Tampa, Buffalo seemed to realize their mistake when Allen ran it 12 times. Allen was second in points per dropback and first in points per game and the only arguments against playing him are any weather concerns and salary. Past that, I can’t build the case to skip him.

RB – Since Week 14 when the Bills finally decided on who their RB1 is, Devin Singletary has been a monster with a total of 80 carries and 14 receptions with is touchdowns. It’s what tends to happen when you’re attached to a great offense and New England is a mixed bag as far as the matchup. They are 25th in yards per attempt allowed but ninth in DVOA against the run. However, they have also allowed the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards and that’s an area that Singletary can really hurt them and he’s still under $6,000. Much like the New England backfield, Singletary could have more opportunity if the passing game (specifically the deep passing game for Buffalo) is having issues in the weather and the salary is very enticing here. The game theory of fading both passing games and just getting exposure from the running backs does make sense as well.

WR – As of right now, Stefon Diggs is 10th in ownership among receivers and that seems like a mistake. Sure, it’s a tough matchup, and the weather, all that is noted. Diggs has still dropped 21 DraftKings on New England once this year and he scored 9.1 in the first meeting with a missed opportunity on a long touchdown that would have pushed him over 20 DK again. He’s scored 15 in three of four career meetings with New England as a Bill and has a 44 point performance as one of his games. The point in citing that is the popular (and reasonable) take is Bill Belichick takes away the top option of the offense. While hat has always been the goal, it has never truly worked against Diggs. He finished eighth in receptions, seventh in yards, seventh in deep targets, second in unrealized air yards, and ninth in points per game. Diggs remains a strong option in all formats.

The secondary options are much tougher to figure out as Emmanuel Sanders is on track to return to the lineup and Cole Beasley will man the slot. J.C. Jackson will be occupied with Diggs and Jalen Mills is out for New England, making the secondary weaker in this spot. Myles Bryant has been the slot corner for New England and has allowed a 71.4% catch rate so Beasley has some potential in the matchup. The 19.3% target share is not awful and he finished 17th in receptions across receivers, a bit of a surprise. Sanders was the deep threat in the offense with a 15-yard aDOT which is wildly volatile, and not my likeliest route to take.

TE – This has been a difficult spot for tight ends all year as the Patriots were the only team in the league to allow under 50 receptions (46) and under 582 yards (440) to the position. Additionally, they only gave up four touchdowns across 86 targets so Dawson Knox becomes a bit of a tougher sell. He did score one of the four touchdowns the Patriots gave up but he barely scored 11 points in that game. There are certainly flaws in his game as well with a 13.2% target share (22nd) and outside the top 10 in yards and receptions. He did miss two games which hurt those ratios but knowing he’s in the toughest matchup based on the stats this season and he needs to score to pay off doesn’t help his cause.

D/ST – Since this game features the lowest total of the weekend and the Patriots offense is one of the more flawed units in the dance, Buffalo makes the most sense out of any defense on the weekend in my view. They’re not overly expensive on DraftKings and finished first in total DVOA, first in points allowed, and tied for the third-most takeaways just like New England. The difference lies in Mac Jones has not shown consistently that he can win a game on his own yet and if you have to spend up, this is the ideal spot to do it.

Cash – Singletary, Allen, D/ST, Diggs

GPP – Beasley, Knox, Sanders

Eagles at Buccaneers, O/U of 46 (Buccaneers -9.5)

Eagles

QB – One of the lagers wild cards of the position this week is Jalen Hurts, as he scored 26 DraftKings Points in the first matchup and he’s the QB9 on the season with only 15 games under his belt. Some may just see the DK points but he played pretty horribly in that game (garbage time was his best friend) and two rushing touchdowns help get you there at the end of the day. On paper, this spot isn’t the kindest for Hurts who is still not the prototypical quarterback. He finished 21st in passing yards and 31st in true completion rate while Tampa was 10th in DVOA against the pass and fourth in yards per attempt allowed. Hurts did his damage on the ground by leading the position in carries, yards, and touchdowns, and that’s what this spot comes down to. Tampa blitzed at the highest rate in football, the only team over 40% this season. Hurts led in scrambles and if they can keep Hurts from scrambling and in the pocket, his completion rate under pressure was only 25th. If they can’t he can smash this salary with a very average passing line if he’s running wild.

RB – I think one of the easier spots to get away from this weekend is the Philadelphia backfield Miles Sanders is likely back in action by early indications, but this is one of the tougher spots a running back can have. That’s doubly true when said back has 26 receptions (44th among backs) and a target share of just 9.6% within the offense. Tampa did fall to 15th in yards per attempt allowed by the end of the year but they are still 12th in DVOA against the run and they once again allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs. The weakness is they allowed the second-most receptions but that is not what Sanders has shown this year, be it his fault or the offense overall. The other facet that hurts him is the Eagles are the second-largest dog of the weekend at 8.5 points and they will very likely not be able to establish the run in this spot.

WR – With the options we have this week, I believe the only receiver to consider is DeVonta Smith. I know that Quez Watkins had a big game last week and I suppose you could turn him into a deep GPP flier, but that is super risky in this offense with his 13.9% target share. Week 7 started a new era in Philly and since then, Smith has been one target off the team lead and he has a 36.8% air yard share. It may not be what the first thought is but he’s had eight end zone targets in that span as well with four touchdowns scored. They should have to pass more because the matchup in the run game is so difficult but Smith is against a tough secondary that can mostly focus on him and one other player. Smith is not likely ready to consistently beat double teams and the duo of Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis wait on the boundary. Murphy-Bunting played the slot under 40% of the time this year and both corners allowed a catch rate under 57% on the season. Davis did allow 14.2-yards per reception so there are some glimmers of hope there, but Smith is not my favorite target.

TE – My word is Dallas Goedert cheap on this slate. Tampa wound up giving up the eighth-most receptions to the position and since Week 7 when Zach Ertz was traded, Goedert has led the Eagles in target share, receptions, yards, and PPR points. The only really disturbing trend is he has zero (really? Zero?) end zone targets in that span and a whopping one red-zone target. There are two spins on that and one is he’s tougher to play with such little touchdown equity on paper but the main takeaway to me is he’s so cheap, he doesn’t need to score to have a big game. If he does, that could be gravy on top of the rest of his production, and Philly in a negative script should help the outlook for Goedert.

D/ST – The Eagles are one of the cheapest units on the weekend and for good reason. They only generated 29 sacks, the fewest of any playoff team, and only forced 16 turnovers. Only the Raiders had fewer in the field and when you add in that 25th in total DVOA is dead last among playoff teams, you start to see why they are an unappealing option. It doesn’t help when you have to face the best quarterback to ever play who was sacked just 22 times. That was the fewest of any quarterback that started at least 13 games this year and his 12 interceptions aren’t enough to chase.

Cash – Goedert

GPP – Hurts, Smith

Buccaneers

QB – No receivers, no problems for Tom Brady. He closed the season in typically dominant fashion after the Buccaneers adjusted to life without Chris Godwin and seeing Antonio Brown no longer on the team in contentious fashion. Now, the opposition wasn’t exactly the best ever but Philly is 25th in DVOA against the pass, dead last in completion rate allowed (oh my), and 10th in yards per attempt allowed. Brady has a pretty big argument for MVP as much as it pains me as a Steelers fan to say that but he led the league in attempts, red-zone attempts, yards, touchdowns, and third in points per game. Among the high-end salaries, Brady has the lead right now as my favorite, and at least one lineup will have him stacked with two players, but maybe not the two you might think.

RB – This is a spot that we’ll need clarity on through the week. Leonard Fournette has a chance to be back this weekend from his hamstring injury and if he is and he’s full-go, he may be unavoidable in cash under $6,000. He was leading running backs in receptions when he got hurt and he’s still third with 69. Fournette is fourth in receiving yards and 19th in rushing yards and the Eagles defense is one to exploit. They were 19th in DVOA against the run and were mid-pack in rushing yards allowed. The issue for them is the play of their linebackers and it is not good, while they have allowed the third-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards. That is directly in the wheelhouse for Fournette and now they are missing Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, which opens up a ton of work in the passing game. If Fournette is active, I’ll be utilizing a double stack of Buccaneers that we’ll get to in a few minutes.

WR – The tables have turned on the Tampa receiving corps in a hurry. Gone are Godwin and AB with only Mike Evans as the last man standing as far as star-level receivers. He has yet to accuse under 1,000 yards in any season and he found the paint 14 times, so I will not take him out of the pool by any stretch. Darius Slay has a chance to hold him in check to some degree but the red-zone is a difficult ask for Slay. He’s giving up 4-5 inches and around 30 pounds to Evans and Brady is accurate as few others in the league are. While Evans is well in play, my favorite stack from this team is Brady/Fournette/Gronk, but we’ll get to that in just a minute.

As far as the secondary guys go, Breshad Perriman and Tyler Johnson look to be the favorites in three-receiver sets. Both saw at least six targets last week and if Brady is throwing as much as usual, there have to be targets to go around. I’d rather play Johnson ahead of Sanders from the Bills and Perriman is in play, but the track record is so short that it’s difficult to get a perfect read on the situation. I would only use either in large-field GPP’s this week and Avonte Maddox and Steven Nelson will be heavily involved in the coverage of these two. Maddox was a stalwart across his 55 targets with 1.26 points per target and Nelson struggled mightily with a 1.98 mark.

TE – One of my favorite plays of the weekend is Rob Gronkowski and I expect him to be popular. With the receiving corps so much thinner than it was a month ago, Gronk should be a monster and since he’s come back from injury he’s looked close to prime-level Gronk. He leads the team in targets and has a 19.1% target share, not to mention leading in air yards share at 24.6% and PPR points. That was with Evans and Godwin playing at least five games each and now we can talk about the matchup, which is arguably the best in football. No team gave up more receptions or touchdowns to the position and they rank 25th in yards allowed on top of that. Gronk should have an absolute field day and this could look like the old days in New England this week in Tampa. The ultimate pet is Cameron Brate, who has a touchdown in three of the past four games and is second in red-zone targets. It’s very risky, but he’s one of the only true punts on the slate that make any sense.

D/ST – I prefer the Bills in this range because I believe the Pats offense has less potential than that Eagles, although Tampa was no slouch at ninth in total DVOA. They finished with the seventh-most sacks although Hurts was only sacked four more times than Brady and fifth in points allowed this season. Tampa’s defense fought through injuries seemingly every week and still took the ball away the fourth-most times in the league, so they could be the top-scoring unit on the slate. The only catch is since they are the most expensive play, they have to be the highest-scoring defense to feel good about playing them.

Cash – Fournette, Gronk, Brady

GPP – Evans, Johnson, Perriman, D/ST

49ers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -3)

49ers

QB – I have to give Jimmy Garoppolo some credit where it’s due. He shook off some mistakes and led the biggest drive of the season last week to force overtime in LA and you have to admit that he was on point when the pressure was at its highest. I’m torn here because the Dallas defense was second in DVOA, third in completion rate allowed, but they were 17th in yards per attempt. Despite the perception of not getting the ball downfield, Garoppolo was second in yards per attempt and perhaps his best attribute against the Dallas pass rush is his 58.6% completion rate under pressure, the highest in the league. If he’s able to get the ball out accurately, this defense can be had when they aren’t forcing turnovers because they gave up the 12th most passing yards in football. Only the Bengals, Chiefs, Titans, and Rams gave up more this season and the 26 interceptions saved the Dallas offense more often than not. If they can’t get the takeaways, this San Fran offense should thrive although I’d get my exposure from the skill guys ahead of Jimmy G.

RB – Call me crazy but I really like Elijah Mitchell this week. I’m a big believer that the Shanahan run game can get it done against any opponent and Dallas was just 16th in DVOA against the run. On top of that, they were 24th in yards per attempt allowed but they only allowed eight rushing touchdowns, third-best in the league. This game is tied for the closest spread of the weekend and while Mitchell doesn’t have a lot of upside in the passing game (if any at all), he is the clear lead back in this offense when he’s healthy and he’s just $5,500. That extra $900 from Damien Harris to Mitchell could come in handy since they are similar players in their respective offenses. He’s been dealing with an injury but he’s had 21 carries in each of the past two games and it’s really hard now to look at him as the cheapest back who can get to 20 touches in my estimation.

WR – I didn’t think this would be a hot take but the ownership would say it is. Deebo Samuel will be the highest-scoring receiver on the slate and he’s outside the top-10 in ownership. We’ve talked about how the Cowboys offense can give up yards and Deebo racked up well over 750 yards after the catch this season. He’s a wizard with the ball in his hands and he’s going to walk all over Trevon Diggs, who allowed an egregious 19.0 YPR and 2.01 points per target. Deebo was fifth in yards, sixth in target share, and you’re going to get a few carries sprinkled in as well. One of my stands in GPP this week is Deebo>everyone at receiver.

If you can’t get to Deebo and want some 49ers exposure, Brandon Aiyuk is not a bad place to get it. He recovered from a horrific start to the season and Week 8 seemed to be a turning point. Since then, he actually led the team in raw targets with 62 (Deebo more than evened it out with carries but the point still stands) and Aiyuk played over 85% of his snaps out of the slot. That means plenty of Anthony Brown who allowed 14.0 YPR and 1.56 points per target while Aiyuk had the highest aDOT among the main components in the offense.

TE – I wonder if George Kittle becomes stuck in no man’s land at the position this weekend. We have a ton of strong options and Kittle is coming off three straight games where he combined for 14.6 DraftKings points total. He’s been highly volatile this year but he also saw seven targets last week and somehow generated just 10 yards. That’s really not indicative of his metrics as he’s second in target share at 24.9%, sixth in deep targets, fourth in yards, sixth in receptions, and fourth in points per game. Dallas was middle of the pack in defending tight ends and with the volatility that Kittle has shown, I do prefer the targets. It just has to be known that he could easily lead the position in scoring this week and if he’s 4-5th in popularity, that’s very notable in GPP settings.

D/ST – This game has the most potential to get into a true shootout with two excellent offenses but the defenses have had their moments as well. San Francisco’s unit is seventh in total DVOA somehow despite a rash of injuries and forced 20 turnovers while getting home 47 times, sixth-most in football. They finished in the top 10 in points allowed but Vegas doesn’t seem to care as this game is the only one with a total of over 50 points this weekend. I would lean going away from them and would rather play the Bills for $400 more.

Cash – Deebo, Mitchell, Aiyuk

GPP – Kittle, D/ST, Jimmy G

Cowboys

QB – One of the other quarterbacks that could rival Burrow for a heat check coming into the weekend is Dak Prescott, throwing for 12 touchdowns in the past three games against zero interceptions and one fumble. He’s been dynamite and the salary is so affordable that I think he could be popular because the pass defense is the weaker point of the San Francisco defense. They are 16th in DVOA against the pass, 29th in completion rate allowed, and 11th in yards per attempt. They are getting some of the secondary back but this is a dangerous passing attack and Dak finished seventh in passing yards, 10th in yards per attempt, 11th in points per dropback, and ninth in points per game. He was also seventh in true completion rate and ninth in deep completion rate and if Dallas is to win this game, Dak is going to need to lead the charge.

RB – The playoffs are priced a little looser but seeing Ezekiel Elliott at $6,100 is still weird. There were reports that he would be limited in Week 18 but he handled 18 carries and tacked on a reception to finish at the seventh-most carries and he was seventh in rushing yards. Even in a crowded offense, Zeke also was ninth in receptions but he was disappointing through so many weeks. He barely made it over averaging 15 DK points and even at this salary, his average game wouldn’t be worth spending that money or roster spot. San Francisco was also second in DVOA against the run and seventh in yards per attempt allowed on top of the seventh-fewest rush yards allowed to backs. All in all, this is not a great spot and the only way Zeke has upside appears to be multiple scores. Tony Pollard is expected to be back but I’m hard-pressed to see why they give him meaningful work all of the sudden and Mitchell is $200 more, while Fournette would be $600 more. That’s not a decision in my eyes.

WR – At least as of now, Cedrick Wilson is going to be a big part of my lineups. It’s not all about the game logs (although producing without Michael Gallup is a big plus to see) but he’s seen 12 targets in a game and a half since that point. In a game that we suspect shoots out, he’s simply not expensive enough. The caveat is he could wind up getting lost in the shuffle if we have access to a punt in the next game but we’ll get there in a moment.

The question of CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper has been a little difficult all year. I don’t think either one had the season they were hoping for as Lamb was just WR19 and Cooper was WR27. Lamb should play more outside receiver than he was when Gallup was healthy and Cooper stays stagnant in his role, and both are affordable. If Dallas is smart, they’ll move everyone around a bit and pick on Josh Norman as much as possible with his 2.09 points per target and 14.7 YPR. K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley were both under 1.55 and Williams has manned the slot almost 85% of the time for San Francisco. If you expect the run game to be lackluster, all of these receivers will have six targets or more and there will be plenty to go around.

TE – I tend to be of the mindset that when the Dallas offense is healthy, Dalton Schultz takes a backseat in the general sense. While Gallup is out, Blake Jarwin made his return last week and he’ll take some snaps this week. Schultz did score twice last week but he also was targeted just three times, a big issue since Dallas played into the fourth quarter with their starters. Schultz was in the matchup that we love against the Eagles as well, so his ceiling is a bit diminished here. He’s in the top 10 in targets, yards, receptions, touchdowns, and points per game on the season but I’m not sure that’s representative of where the offense currently is at. I do believe we have stronger options.

D/ST – Dallas did finish second in total DVOA and seventh in points allowed, but I have concerns if they can’t force mistakes from Jimmy G. They do have the fourth-highest pressure rate on the season and racked up over 40 sacks but they also finished 20th in yards per play allowed and 19th in yards allowed per game. Make no mistake, you can move the ball against the Cowboys. It’s just a matter of holding onto it long enough to score points and if San Francisco does, I think they pull the upset here.

Cash – Dak, Lamb, Wilson

GPP – Cooper, Zeke, Schultz

Steelers at Chiefs, O/U of 45.5 (Chiefs -12.5)

Steelers

QB – I’m not sure how in the world the Steelers managed to back into the postseason, but I don’t expect their stay to be long here. Ben Roethlisberger has been roundly awful for fantasy outside of a couple of magical weeks, he’s 33rd in points per dropback and 23rd in points per game. Big Ben ranks 30th in deep completion rate, 30th in yards per attempt, and 15th in yards despite the sixth-most attempts. He’s likely to throw 40 times or more, but that doesn’t mean it has to result in anything and I’m not looking in his direction this week.

RB – I really don’t have a lot of interest in Najee Harris as a 13.5 point underdog, but I have a feeling that the rest of the field feels the same way and that could leave the rookie as one heck of a GPP play. The game in Week 16 could not have gone much worse for Pittsburgh as they got trucked in Arrowhead by 26 points, and the game was worse than the score looked. Yet, Harris generated 16 DK points on 24 touches without a touchdown and he can hurt the Chiefs in both facets of the game. The Chiefs continued to be poor against the run this year as last year, as they averaged 4.8 yards per attempt allowed and that was 31st. They were only 20th in DVOA and they allowed the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards against running backs this year. Even if the Steelers are getting smashed as Vegas expects, that means a lot of work in the passing game is in the range of outcomes for Harris. The volume was impeccable for Harris this year with the second-most carries, the most receptions, third-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most rushing yards among backs. If he’s getting largely ignored, we should be paying attention in GPP’s and willing to take the plunge.

WR – We have a potential slate-changing punt in this game because there is a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster plays in this game and he’s the stone minimum on DK. We’re not talking about a fifth-string receiver that is jumping to an elevated role and hoping for the best. If JuJu is active, he’s a legit 70/950/8 receiver in the NFL who knows this offense. I would not expect him to play every single snap by any stretch but playing on third down and red-zone packages more than makeup for the salary. We’ve been punting Ray-Ray McCloud in recent weeks because he’s been more involved and let me tell you as a Steelers fan, he’s not that good. I’m not the biggest JuJu fan but a minimum salary is a cheat code and would replace Wilson as the cheap player to target.

I love Diontae Johnson as a player but will not likely have a whole lot this week, as his salary is high enough to make me chase other spots like Higgins or both Dallas options. Johnson was a monster this year, somehow finishing ninth in yards despite sitting 84th in yards per reception and he was 11th in unrealized air yards. He had a fantastic season and the script screams for him to go off, but the salary leaves him in no man’s land for me. Charvarius Ward was a strong corner as well with a 45.2% catch rate allowed an 1.43 points per target. Chase Claypool is wildly inconsistent (not all his quarterback’s fault, either) but the salary is more tempting than Johnson. He did see 22 targets across the past three games but has only managed to generate 95 receiving yards so the floor is very low. Rashad Fenton would mix for coverage on Claypool and he only allowed 10.2 yards per reception this year.

TE – The upside is starting to get harder to find with Pat Freiermuth since he’s been over 14 DraftKings Points just once since Week 9. He’s getting enough targets at 16th throughout the season but his aDOT of 5.0 yards was 35th among tight ends. He did finish 12th in receptions and showed a nose for the paint with seven but that tailed off as the year went on. The Chiefs were average at defending the position and even in the largest negative script of the weekend, his quarterback hasn’t changed and it’s tough to find an upside to compete with others in this group.

D/ST – I don’t think this is the craziest punt you can make. In past seasons, going against the Chiefs in Arrowhead would have been a suicide mission. This season has been a bit different as the Chiefs turned the ball over 25 times (tied for fifth-most) and allowed 28 sacks. That latter number isn’t egregious but the Steelers led the league in sacks and were seventh in pressure rate. Their secondary will not hold up if they can’t get pressure but all they would need is 2-3 sacks and a turnover or two to be alright here. With the way T.J. Watt is playing, there are worse options at the cheapest price than the Steelers.

Cash – I don’t feel comfortable with any, Johnson would be closest pending JuJu

GPP – Najee, Claypool, Muth, D/ST

Chiefs

QB – It somewhat feels like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have just been waiting for the games to matter for them to really go off (although the past couple of weeks would fly into the face of the narrative). Mahomes faces a tough challenge in the eighth-best DVOA against the pass and T.J. Watt as a pass rusher, but he can get it done at home. He finished fourth in yards, third in attempts, sixth in red-zone attempts, 10th in points per dropback, and fifth in points per game. Pittsburgh was just 13th in yards allowed per attempt but the one Achilles heel for Mahomes this season has been ranking 23rd in pressured completion rate. If there’s an avenue for him to get disrupted, it’s the pass rush from Pittsburgh who led the league in sacks. This may sound crazy, but I like other high-salary quarterbacks better just a little bit.

RB – We’ll see if the backfield gives us a slam dunk play or not, based on the health of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If he’s not ready to get back on the field, Darrell Williams would be just as good (if not even better) than Mitchell at the same exact salary. Williams has passing game upside with an 8.9% target share in the offense and nine red-zone targets. He would be the lead dog without any questions if CEH is out and Pittsburgh’s run defense has been garbage this year. They are dead last in yards per attempt allowed and the only team that allowed 5.0 yards per attempt in the league to go along with 27th in DVOA against the run and they missed leading the league in rushing yards allowed to backs by 15 yards. This is a prime spot for somebody and we would just need to know who we like closer to the weekend.

WR – The salary on Tyreek Hill is very low and it feels like you can’t pass on it but man has he had a rough three weeks. Last week can be brushed aside with injury in fairness but he turned 10 targets in Cincinnati into just 40 yards. He finished sixth in yards and third in receptions while ranking sixth in points per game with a 25.1% target share. Joe Haden is back for the Steelers but they know he’s not going to be able to keep up just one on one. As it was this year, he allowed 1.75 points per target across 44 targets and 12 games. Getting anyone else right in the corps has been tough. In the past two weeks, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle both have games over 20 DK points. The recent emergence of corner Ahkello Witherspoon has helped this defense in a big way too. He’s been targeted 32 times but most of his action has come from Week 13 on and his fantasy points per target are 0.85 with a 34.4% catch rate allowed. If he can hold up on the secondary players, the Steelers can allocate more resources to Hill and the next man.

TE – Travis Kelce has been such a weird study all season. He has upside like almost no other tight ends in the league but he’s been pedestrian for more than his share of games. Of his 16 games, 10 were under 18 DraftKings points so Kelce hasn’t exactly been the sure-fire bet he has been in the past. The Steelers were on the better end of defending the position but we don’t typically care about that when we’re talking Kelce. Even in a “down” season (down isn’t the exact right word, maybe inconsistent is better), Kelce was still second in receptions, yards, points per game, and he led the position with 10 touchdowns. Seeing as how the tight end that led in the categories Kelce is second, I don’t want to downplay what Kelce accomplished. It’s just important to understand that he was up and down this season and a down game would hurt.

D/ST – If we’re in this range and not playing the Bills, KC is next on my list ahead of Tampa since this Steelers offense is fairly pathetic. The Chiefs have had a rough season defensively and they had about a month span where they looked awesome, only to turn it back in the last couple of weeks to being sub-par again. They wound up being just 24th in total DVOA but Big Ben was sacked the seventh-most times in the league this year and despite all the yards they gave up (bottom 10), the Chiefs were eighth in points allowed. Pittsburgh seems unlikely to overcome the flaws in KC’s defense and I’m happy to go with the Chiefs here.

Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, TBD on backs, D/ST

GPP – Hardman, Pringle

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)

Cardinals

QB – The Rams are a tough defense but Kyler Murray has scored over 22 DraftKings in both matchups and he’s been a strong option on any given week. I believe that’s true again despite the Rams ranking in the top-five in DVOA against the pass. Part of that reason is they also rank 24th in completion rate allowed and 16th in yards allowed per attempt. Kyler is fourth in yards per attempt, first in true completion rate, and third in points per dropback. He was also fourth in points per game and was a top 10 quarterback in just 14 games played. Kyler and Brady are my preferred targets above $7,000 this week, although I wouldn’t fight you on Allen or Mahomes.

RB – This backfield is tough to get behind since the expectation is James Conner and Chase Edmonds are supposed to be active for this game. The other issue is you have no real escape hatch if something changes because this one is Monday night and when both are active, it’s hard to prioritize. Conner gets the red-zone work with 39 attempts but Edmonds gets the passing work at 53 targets to 33 for Conner. Edmonds hating the IR opened up Conner for more work in that facet but through Week 9, Edmonds had a 37-10 lead in targets overall. The Rams have been stout against the run for the most part at fifth in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt. If they are both on track to play, I think the answer could be “neither” but Edmonds and the receiving work would be my lean.

WR – While Christian Kirk has been the workhorse in the corps since DeAndre Hopkins went down, this is far from my favorite spot for him. He’s been in the slot almost half the time and Jalen Ramsey plays a lot more slot than other top corners at 32.7%. While I’m not sitting here saying Ramsey is going to shadow Kirk, they should see enough of each other that it’s harder to see Kirk having huge upside in this game. Last week was a big bump in the road as well with just three targets and was a reminder that he can be a little flighty, even without Hopkins. That also means that A.J. Green will see a mix of Ramsey and Darious Williams, and both are under 1.50 points per target and 12.0 YPR. He does have 16 red-zone targets but only found the paint three times, so I may rather play Claypool (he says through gritted teeth).

TE – As much as I really like some of the other tight ends on the slate, Zach Ertz is a very solid “late hammer” in the last game of the weekend. He’s seen 43 targets in the four games that Hopkins missed and he’s scored at least 11.1 DraftKings points in all four games, without the luxury of a touchdown. He only faced the Rams once and Hopkins played that entire game so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison but he did score under 10 DraftKings in that one. With a target share hovering around 25% and the game has one of the highest totals of the weekend.

D/ST – Of the 14 teams that sacked the quarterback at least 41 times, nine made it into the postseason which I find interesting and the Cardinals defense is in that club. They also had a 25.9% pressure rate and finished sixth in total DVOA, 11th in points allowed per game, and the fifth-most turnovers. When two divisional teams meet for the third time in a season, the results can be a little unpredictable but they can be slightly lower scoring than expected as well. With LA having some issues on the offensive side of the ball, I can get behind the Cards as a play this weekend but am still searching for ways to get to Buffalo.

Cash – Kyler, Ertz

GPP – Edmonds, Conner, Kirk, Green, D/ST

Rams

QB – Any time the real Matthew Stafford wants to enter the chat, that would be great. It is very interesting to note that since Robert Woods was lost in Week 9 to his ACL injury, Stafford has chucked 11 of his 17 interceptions. That hasn’t been the only factor but Woods was sort of a calming presence in this offense and these two things sure seem related, even if it’s not the only reason. Stafford’s last performance with no turnovers happened to come against this Cardinals defense for 23 DraftKings points and on the season, he finished third in yards and yards per attempt. Arizona was fifth in DVOA against the pass and 14th in yards per attempt as well, while Stafford was also ninth in points per dropback. I would personally rather play Dak at this point but that’s a personal preference.

RB – If you want a flier running back, Cam Akers could fit the bill. He’s barely above the site minimum on DK and he touched the ball eight times last week while playing 20% of the snaps and running seven routes. Seeing three targets on seven routes is somewhat interesting and he had three red-zone touches as well. If we’re getting whiffs that Akers involvement is going to be cranked up, he can shatter his salary on 12-14 touches. I don’t think there is much stability and the potential outcomes include under eight DK points. The thing is he is so cheap that the reward could really outweigh the risk, but we need to monitor practice reports this week. After going on about Akers, it has to be noted that Sony Michel still had 22 touches last week and he could be the counter for me saying Mitchell is the only one that has 20 touch upside at $5,500 or less. Let’s see what happens during the week and Arizona was sixth in DVOA against the run but also allowed 4.6 yards per attempt, 26th in the league.

WR – It took 19 weeks of NFL action, but I am Team Fade Cooper Kupp this week. Stix was on this train more than I was this year and it truly has nothing to do with the past couple of weeks where he didn’t go nuclear. It has everything to do with he’s the most expensive player on the slate by nearly $1,000 and I’m not convinced he outscores every other receiver to make that gap worth it. He led in every possible statistic and threatened receiving records but the salary cap is not his friend. As of now, this is a bold stance because he’s projected as the highest rostered receiver. I will say if I can punt JuJu that may change things a bit, but I stand firm in Deebo being the highest scoring receiver on the weekend. This isn’t a justification for the fade but it is funny his worst game of the season came in Week 4 against this defense.

Trying to figure out Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson is much more of a challenge. There has been very little separation since Week 10 between these two and Jefferson has the lead in yards at 338-287 but OBJ has more receptions at 25-21 and touchdowns at 5-3. Both Antonio Hamilton and Marco Wilson are questionable, so let’s circle back when we have a better idea who’s alive for Arizona.

TE – Tyler Higbee finally found the paint twice last week but he only had three coming into the weekend. We had been saying every week that he had the red-zone work to back up the three touchdowns being a fluke and he finished first in those targets with 20 on the season. He deserved more than five scores but Arizona was in the top-five in yards and receptions allowed and no team allowed fewer than the two touchdowns they did (Denver tied). I can’t say that Higbee is a main target here this week.

D/ST – Of all the cheap options with the most potential, the Rams could be it. The Arizona offense has been hampered without Hopkins and their running back corps is beat up significantly. They were one of just three teams that hit 50 sacks or higher and they finished fifth in total DVOA, seventh in takeaways, and 15th in points allowed per game. At the rate he was sacked in 14 games, Kyler would have been right about 10th in sacks had he played all 17 games and the Rams are extremely cheap for this slate.

Cash – Kupp, Michel if the ownership dictates

GPP – OBJ, Jefferson, Akers, Higbee, D/ST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/13

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12

We’ve got a smaller five-game slate in front of us tonight and it features one of the games that have the most sizzle all season as the Warriors take on the Bucks in Milwaukee. We also have a decimated Portland squad to pull value from so let’s get rolling in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12 to find our paths to green screens!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Teams To Target

Brooklyn Nets – It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will miss again, and it’s possible Nic Claxton does as well. If they are both out, Day’Ron Sharpe is going to be very popular as he’s played at least 24 minutes in the past two games and he’s scored over 25 DraftKings points in those games. Sharpe is only $3,300 and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 19th in points in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Kyrie Irving will almost surely be out on the back-to-back (there are reports that Brooklyn can just pay a fine and let him play at home) but I wonder if James Harden sits. He played deep into garbage time last night in what can only really be described as coaching malpractice. The Nets were flirting with a 40 point lead and Harden was still out there while Kevin Durant sat the whole quarter. It’s far from set in stone, but let’s see what happens. KD would be the pay-up option if he’s riding solo tonight.

Potential Run-Backs – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey

Portland Trail Blazers – They are missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Anfernee Simons, Norman Powell, and Larry Nance Jr. That is an immense amount of the team and the headliner is likely to be Dennis Smith Jr. at just $4,000. Without the trio of guards, DSJ has played 230 minutes with 0.95 points per minute and a 22.9% usage rate. He’s going to have to play nearly 35 minutes, if not a couple more and you simply don’t pass on that value. Nassir Little, Ben McLemore, and Jusuf Nurkić all need to be considered as it is all hands on deck but a potential DSJ/Sharpe combo leaves a lot of room to build.

Run Backs – Nikola Jokic, TBD on Will Barton’s status

Memphis Grizzlies – Ja Morant is on one right now as this man is out there staring down kids for wearing the wrong jersey in Memphis. If you haven’t followed it, it’s actually a pretty funny situation that led to Ja and the Grizzlies offering a trade-in for a Morant or Jaren Jackson jersey, free of charge. Anyways, the Wolves play at the sixth-fastest pace and are 22nd in points allowed in the paint. No player scores more buckets from driving to the hoop than Morant at over 13 points per game, and he’s still under $9,500. Desmond Bane will be looking for a bounce-back game after the last time out and can shoot the lights out any night. Not having Dillon Brooks for the foreseeable future helps solidify Morant especially at nearly 1.40 points per minute. If Steven Adams is back, I’m interested because he’ll be needed to help combat the size of Minnesota’s frontcourt. If not, Brandon Clarke is still a fine play, even though he’s getting up there in salary.

Run-Backs – Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards

Note – The Warriors/Bucks game is difficult to truly stack. The Bucks side of things is very pricey since Jrue Holiday is out and I’m leaning towards playing Nikola Jokic in that range ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo. I will say that no Draymond Green makes it more difficult for the Warriors to defend Giannis, but the Portland interior should get clowned by Jokic after a horrific loss in LA. The best exposure from this game is Steph Curry, not because he triple-doubled last game. Milwaukee allows a 3-point attempt at a 46.3% frequency, the second-most in the league.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

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FanDuel

PGA West Stadium Course

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800

Early Slate (12:30pm EST)

New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics (-6)

Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks (-2)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards (+3)

Afternoon Slate (3:30pm EST)

Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-3)

Indiana Pacers @ LA Clippers (-2)

Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

Main Slate (7pm EST)

Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic (+1.5)

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat (-3)

OKC Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)

Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs (+4.5)

Utah Jazz @ LA Lakers (+4.5)

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/16

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15

Games To Target

Trail Blazers at Wizards

Bulls at Celtics

Pelicans at Nets

Friday 1/14 NHL Breakdown

Goalies

Lines to Build Around

High Risk Lines

Value Options – DraftKings

Value Options – FanDuel

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

Golden State Warriors

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend

Raiders at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Bengals -5)

Raiders

Bengals

Patriots at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -4)

Patriots

Bills

Eagles at Buccaneers, O/U of 46 (Buccaneers -9.5)

Eagles

Buccaneers

49ers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -3)

49ers

Cowboys

Steelers at Chiefs, O/U of 45.5 (Chiefs -12.5)

Steelers

Chiefs

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)

Cardinals

Rams

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12

Teams To Target

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