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Friday 1/14 NHL Breakdown
Welcome back to Win Daily Sports’ Friday Night Forecheck! The NHL schedule continues to be pretty unbalanced, so after a giant, 11 game slate, we have a small 3 game slate tonight. This slate has a couple of very obvious spots, so expect heavy chalk. We will do what we can to find the low owned gems to get you to the top! Good luck!
Goalies
Kaapo Kahkonen – Minnesota Wild: The Wild host the Ducks tonight, and this is a nice looking play. The Ducks have only been scoring 1.4 goals per game over their last five away games, and Kahkonen has been decent over his last five. Especially if the Wild get some of their weapons back tonight (they should), this becomes a strong play.
Sergei Bobrovsky – Florida Panthers: The Panthers are hosting the Stars tonight, and the Stars are a tale of two teams. On home ice, they have been scoring almost FIVE goals per game over their last five home games. On the road, however, they have only been scoring 1.4 goals per game over their last five road games. On top of that, they are giving up 3.4 goals per game over their last 5 road games, making Bob the best play on the slate tonight.
Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – None: This slate feels pretty straightforward. You could realistically go with Darcy Kuemper (COL), but the upside there feels pretty limited. The Coyotes have been playing well recently, but they are a much better team at home than on the road. With the way that Arizona shoots, and the risk that Kuemper has brought this year, one or two goals could crack him pretty easily, so it feels like the Kuemper play is just too limited. Karel Vejmelka (ARI) just put up a 40+ save, 1 goal against win the other night against Toronto. While he is good for games like that every once in a while, visiting Colorado does not seem like a spot for him to do it again. Anthony Stolarz (ANH) and Jake Oettinger (DAL) are both on the road, and Stolarz is the better play there, so you can make a case for him, but the focus should really be on Kahkonen and Bob for the upside.
Lines to Build Around
These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Colorado Avalanche Power Play – Nathan MacKinnon/Nazem Kadri/Valeri Nichushkin/Mikko Rantanen/Cale Makar: This, just…wow. This should absolutely be a smash spot for an already high octane unit that can handle just about any team in the league. The addition of Nichushkin makes this slightly more affordable. Expect this unit to be SUPER chalk tonight, for very good reason.
Florida Panthers Power Play – Aleksander Barkov/Sam Reinhart/Jonathan Huberdeau/Anthony Duclair/Aaron Ekblad: This unit is in a fantastic spot as well, as they take on the Stars on home ice. Barkov/Huberdeau/Ekblad is always a great trio to run from the Panthers, as they are almost always producing. The second line straight up (Sam Bennett/Anthony Duclair/Jonathan Huberdeau) is a slightly better even strength matchup, but you can get access to them via the power play.
High Risk Lines
These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Anaheim Ducks Power Play – Rickard Rakell/Trevor Zegras/Sonny Milano/Ryan Getzlaf/Cam Fowler: The Ducks’ power play has a very nice matchup, as they are currently ranked 5th in the league. Minnesota has been taking a bunch of penalties, so there should be ample opportunity for them tonight. They are high risk because the Ducks have been struggling to score of late, especially on the road.
Minnesota Wild 1 – Ryan Hartman/Kirill Kaprizov/Mats Zuccarello/Calen Addison: The Wild appear to be getting back their weapons from injury and COVID, so this is a great spot for them tonight. If Addison does in fact slot into the power play, he is a great value play.
Minnesota Wild 3 – Victor Rask/Kevin Fiala/Matthew Boldy: If you want to get off of a chalkier Minnesota play and still get access to them, this is a good play. Boldy has been playing well in his first few games, and this line has a decent matchup at even strength.
Colorado Avalanche 3 – Alex Newhook/JT Compher/Logan O’Connor: This third line for the Avs has been good all year, and is a little better with Aube-Kubel, but he appears to be out tonight. Even so, this is a great way to get much lower ownership on a massive total. Newhook and O’Connor are slippery and are going to be good in this league as they grow and improve. Compher slots into the second power play, so there is a good upside to playing him as well.
Honorable Mentions: ANH4, ARIPP, DAL1
Notes: This slate feels like it is going to come down to getting the MIN/ANH game correct. Getting the correct stack to go with COL/FLA will be a great approach. Another really good GPP approach is to play contrarian and fade the super obvious chalk. As we saw last night, this can work at times, and on three games, it makes sense. Just remember, fading the obvious plays is an all or nothing approach.
Value Options – DraftKings
Center: Alex Newhook ($3000) – Colorado Avalanche
Wing: Patric Hornqvist ($2900) – Florida Panthers
Defense: Samuel Girard ($3900) – Colorado Avalanche
Value Options – FanDuel
Center: Alex Newhook ($3900) – Colorado Avalanche
Wing: Jordan Greenway ($4000) – Minnesota Wild
Defense: Esa Lindell ($4400) – Dallas Stars
Cash Considerations – DraftKings
Cash is not recommended on a three game slate
Cash Considerations – FanDuel
Cash is not recommended on a three game slate
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
