This article will focus on NHL Daily Fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using advanced hockey metrics, slate analysis, and line by line evaluation, this article will point you towards what we think are the best plays for the night! Good luck!
Friday 10/29 NHL Breakdown
Hey everyone and Happy Halloween Weekend! We are now two weeks into this NHL season, and it has been a very interesting one to start. SO much news, happenings, and surprises have already happened this season. Tonight’s slate is a nice little six gamer, which is a great slate size. Not too many, not too few, which means that ownership should be spread out just enough to get different. Let’s take a look and have some fun tonight!
Goalies:
Ilya Samsonov – Washington Capitals: The Capitals have a very nice looking matchup tonight against a very bad Arizona Coyotes team who is on a traveling back to back. The Coyotes were just smacked around pretty badly by the Lightning, and now they have to face the Caps. I almost feel bad for them. Samsonov will be your chalk goalie and he should get an easy win. The shot upside should be limited, though.
Braden Holtby – Dallas Stars: The Stars get a nice matchup tonight against the Ottawa Senators, who have a tendency to be stingy, but Holtby has been playing pretty well so far. He is sporting a 0.939 SV% and a decent 2.04 GAA. The Stars should be able to handle this team, and the shot upside could be surprisingly nice.
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus Blue Jackets: Elvis has the best numbers on the slate, sporting a 1.19 GAA and 0.952 SV%. He is on the road against the Rangers, so this is definitely a GPP pick. The shot upside will be there, and he has a chance to shut down a team that we have seen be capable of scoring.
Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – Thomas Greiss – Detroit Red Wings: Honestly, I was torn between Greiss and Lankinen here, and I think you can do either one in this position when playing deep GPP contests. We will start with Greiss: the Panthers had a coaching transition after the Joel Quenneville mess, so there could be a bit of a transition in play style. That being said, Greiss should see shot volume and could be a potential upset spot. I like the upside in deep GPPs. For Lankinen, the Hurricanes are known for low danger shots and are on a back to back. Lank has been playing well, so I could definitely see some upside here as well. Your choice when it comes to these two, and you can let salary dictate your call.
Lines to Build Around:
These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Washington Capitals 1 – Evgeny Kuznetsov/Alex Ovechkin/Tom Wilson/John Carlson: We mentioned earlier that the Coyotes are BAD. The truth is, they don’t match up well to almost every team in the league, but when you unleash one of the best teams in the league with one of the best players in the world, it is bound to be bad for them. I expect this line to be super chalky, so to get a little different, you can replace Wilson with Sheary and you will then have a power play look with access to the second line.
Dallas Stars 1 – Roope Hintz/Jason Robertson/Joe Pavelski/John Klingberg: This line had so many opportunities the last time out, when we loved them against the Golden Knights. The opportunity that they are producing and the fact that they were stifled tells me that they were unlucky in that matchup. Tonight, they have an even better matchup, and I am going to ride this line.
High Risk Lines:
These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Anaheim Ducks 1 – Trevor Zegras/Adam Henrique/Rickard Rakell/Jamie Drysdale: The Ducks, and this line specifically, have a nice matchup tonight against the depth lines of the Golden Knights. I like them tonight, as Lehner has not been great, and the Golden Knights are still depleted. I can see this line going way under the radar tonight, and they have a good even strength opportunity.
Carolina Hurricanes 3 – Jordan Staal/Nino Niederreiter/Jesper Fast/Brett Pesce: At home, Carolina matches this line with the opposing top line. That opposing top line is Chicago 1, who is surrendering a big number of high danger chances per 60 (24.71) and a massive number of shots and scoring chances. Something to note: It’s a pretty small sample for the Chicago line, so that’s why this is a high risk play. However, Chicago overall is not playing great defensively, so we can roll these guys as upside plays. I have the Carolina power play under honorable mentions, and I will have some access to them as well tonight in multiple lineups, but I love the low owned upside here.
Honorable mentions: Vegas Golden Knights 1, New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1, Carolina Hurricanes Power Play
Cash Considerations “DraftKings”
Alexsander Barkov – C – Florida Panthers
Alex Ovechkin – W – Washington Capitals
John Klingberg – D – Dallas Stars
Ilya Samsonov – G – Washington Capitals
Cash Considerations “FanDuel”
Alexsander Barkov – C – Florida Panthers
Alex Ovechkin – W – Washington Capitals
John Klingberg – D – Dallas Stars
Ilya Samsonov – G – Washington Capitals
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All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
