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FanDuel GPP

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 13

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” HUGE Week 12 at Win Daily for our NFL DFS GPP lineups and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 13. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 13

Minnesota Vikings (24.82)
Green Bay Packers (24.05)
Tennessee Titans (22.31)
Los Angeles Rams (22.30)
New Orleans Saints (22.02)

My Personal Top Stacks:

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers – All in on Rodgers and the Packers’ offense against the Eagles’ putrid secondary. The Eagles will bring an excellent pass rush so this is no cakewalk for Rodgers and company, but on a Sunday as ugly as this one, I’m going to invest heavily in the best quarterback on the slate.
Mitch Trubisky – Yes, let’s go down to the salary savings of Mitch Trubisky and this Bears offense. As mentioned in the cash game article, Trubisky absolutely destroys the Lions’ defense, historically. The Lions’ defense as a whole is decimated with injuries and also do not have Matt Patricia slowing down the pace of their offense.

This game will be sloppy, but it will produce some fantasy fireworks for our NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Ryan Tannehill – Low key, Tannehill and the Titans’ offense play at a very high pace despite giving Derrick Henry 22+ carriers per game. A high-paced offense is something I’ll always be interested in with my GPP builds… especially when that team is going virtually un-owned (outside of Derrick Henry).

Vegas has this game kicking off with the highest total on the slate and surprisingly it’s not drawing a lot of ownership in DFS.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Chris Carson – Carson is in for a full workload this week after seeing how useless Carlos Hyde was with 15 touches last week in addition to nursing a toe injury. We love playing double digit home-favorite running backs, so why is there no love for a 3-down back like Chris Carson?
Miles Sanders – I always pick on the Green Bay running defense and this happens to be the perfect run back for my favorite stack of the Packers.
Myles Gaskin – There’s literally no one else behind him that will take away snaps. Miami is a big favorite against a Bengals team that has absolutely nothing to play for. Gaskin will likely be popular, but not nearly as much as Montgomery and Booker.
Kareem Hunt – Just a conviction play to go on the other side of my Titans’ stacks (when I cannot afford Nick Chubb). I really love this spot for both Browns’ running backs.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Damien Harris, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams – He’s not sneaky whatsoever, but give me all of the Davante Adams this week.
Allen Robinson – If he’s 100% healthy and good to go, the Lions’ secondary is absolutely destroyed right now. Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah (the top two corners in Detroit) are both out (Trufant on IR)… this is going to be a field day for Robinson and the Bears.
AJ Brown – I don’t know what else AJ Brown has to do to get more love in the DFS world. He’s one of the highest ceiling wide receivers to put into your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
DJ Chark – He’s a top-end wide receiver priced at $5,400 on DraftKings against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Jaguars will be playing catch up all day on Sunday and that sets up for a busy day for DJ Chark.
Michael Pittman – All the way the hell in on Michael Pittman this weekend against a Bradley Roby-less, Houston Texans’ secondary. Read the cash game article if you need more on why I’m so high on Pittman.
Denzel Mims / Breshad Perriman – If you need some salary relief, one of these two will be my top choices. They both have extremely intriguing player props for such low salaries in DFS and have a juicy matchup against the Raiders’ secondary you know I love to pick on.

Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Corey Davis, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan – Packers’ stacks and a dude who is a lock to see 5+ targets and a great red-zone asset. Cheap exposure to my favorite game-stack.
TJ Hockenson – simply a low-owned, underpriced player as a run-back to my second favorite stack. Out of the tight-ends on this slate, no one other than Darren Waller have the floor Hockenson has.

Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

Josh Matigian 4 years ago

written by Josh Matigian

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The Win Daily PGA team will be bringing you the customary content this week and the website and Discord chat are sure to be active over the next 24 hours. Below are my Initial Picks for the Mayakoba and these picks incorporate recent form, course history and the appropriate strokes gained metrics (and maybe a hunch or two on golfers I’m expecting to surprise some people). As for the metrics to focus upon, I’m looking for drivers that are accurate off the tee and APP and PUTT. You do not need to be long off the tee on this course and that brings a few more golfers into the mix that can truly contend here. Tune into our Livestream tonight (and every Tuesday night) at 8:00 EST for more on these golfers and many more. Here are my Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks.

Brooks Koepka (11000) – Game is certainly rounding into form with a 7^th at the Masters and a 5^th at Houston and he feels like a great pivot off what will be a very chalky Justin Thomas. If you want to roster JT instead of Koepka, that’s fine, but just know JT is likely to carry about 10% more ownership. More on that with the @SicilyKid article on Wednesday and in Discord.

Viktor Hovland (9700) – His track record here doesn’t inspire confidence (two missed cuts) and he hasn’t been as good with the irons lately as I’d like, but I believe in his game too much to pass him up in this field.

Will Zalatoris (9200) – This guy is just red hot. He’s been excellent OTT and even better on APP. Add to that his last five tournaments he’s finished 16^th, 5^th, MC, 8^th and 6^th. A nice finish here may get him into the OWGR Top 50 which automatically qualifies him for the 2021 Masters.

Corey Conners (9000) – His track record here isn’t good, but I’m willing to overlook that because his recent form has been great (three Top 10’s in his last four tournaments). The strokes gained metrics add up as well as he has been great OTT and on APP.

Carlos Ortiz (8900) – He’s been good with the ball striking lately and relatively good with the short game. Add to that his recent form is obviously good with a 1^st place in Houston and the fact that he finished 2^nd here last year.

Emiliano Grillo (8300) – If this man could ever get the putter going, his price would consistently be in the mid 9k range in fields like this. The ball striking has been very good, particularly on APP. Other than Houston he’s been easily making cuts and he’s made four cuts in a row here.

Joel Dahmen (8000) – We’re looking for scorers and this guy can get hot in a flash. He’s high risk and high reward at times and when it unravels it can get bad, but his upside is too good for me to pass up.

Doug Ghim (7400) – He’s been excellent on APP and solid with the short game, and oh yea, I picked him as 1^st Round Leader on the Plantation course at the RSM and it hit (bang!). He’s got three Top 25’s in the last three tournaments.

Austin Cook (7300) – He let us down at the RSM with an MC, but was very good prior to that. He’s accurate OTT and can get hot on APP. Has flashed enough recent upside for me to have him in some lineups.

Brice Garnett (7000) –Some questionable recent form for Garnett, but what you can’t question is how much he likes this track as his last four here he’s finished 11^th, 5^th, 25^th and 7^th. Add to that he’s typically accurate OTT and we may be in the perfect spot for Garnett to pay off his price and then some.

Ryan Armour (6600) – I’m going to do my best to avoid the 6k range but if I need to dip down here, I think Armour is a great course fit. He is a short hitter which immediately makes him relevant on this course and he is also typically accurate OTT which should set him up well on APP. He’s made three cuts in a row here.

Secret Weapon (less than 6k/less than 5% ownership) – Tune into Discord on Wednesday.

See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST on the Livestream @windailysports on Twitter or on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 12

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 12. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game bu...

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.

Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form. It’s expensive but it’s worth it.

Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP. With that said, he was as mere 29^th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here. I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.

Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular. More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10^th place finish last week in Augusta.

Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston. He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23^rd. His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.

Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda. I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.

Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24^th. Prior to that he was 2^nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP. Also, no stranger to a hot putter. Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.

Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice. A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15^th, MC, 13^th). He finished 23^rd last time he played here in 2019.

Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8^th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good. Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.

James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50^th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row. Ball striking numbers during that time have been great.

Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14^th place finish. He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG. I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord

See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 9

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 9. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs (25.76)
Seattle Seahawks (24.21)
Minnesota Vikings (24.13)
Arizona Cardinals (22.77)
Pittsburgh Steelers (22.63)
Houston Texans (22.43)
Buffalo Bills (21.83)
Los Angeles Chargers (21.04)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – Welcome back, Mr. Wilson! Russell Wilson is once again the top quarterback in the AETY Model and I’ll be going right back to the well in this matchup at Buffalo with an expected total currently sitting at 55 points (highest on the slate).

I don’t really care what his ownership is, he’s too consistent to fade. You know who to stack him up with.
Josh Allen – On the other side of Wilson this week is obviously, Josh Allen. The Seattle passing defense is atrocious and should be a perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen (who hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 6). Allen is projected to lead this slate in passing yards and like Wilson, it’s very easy to stack him up as the target share in Buffalo is rather condensed.
Lamar Jackson – Lamar Jackson is now priced under $7K on DraftKings… a day I didn’t think we’d ever see any time soon when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Yes, Indianapolis’ defense is extremely stout (ranked 3rd in overall defense DVOA), but I’ll always be interested in rostering Lamar Jackson when he’s likely under 5% owned… not to mention the salary relief he offers this week.

I have Lamar projected to throw for his season high this week (which isn’t saying a whole lot) and it should finally lead to a big day for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (both priced down throughout the DFS industry this week). If Lamar can do his usually damage on the ground and pair that with a 220+ passing yard performance with a couple of TDs, he may very well be QB1 this week and no one is going to play him.
Justin Herbert – Give me all of the Justin Herbert this week as they host the Las Vegas Raiders and their 31st overall ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). You can carve this secondary up and also run it down their throats. If the Raiders can keep the pace in this game and keep it close (the game is currently posted as a pick-em on most sportsbooks), Herbert and company should have another monster game at home in the dome.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

*Obviously, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chase Edmonds are in smash spots. They should be a heavy focus of yours in most lineups, but here are the guys I think are difference-making pivots off of the heavy chalk RBs*

Derrick Henry – All hail King Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher by a healthy margin. Derrick Henry is currently projected to be in the 5-10% ownership bracket here in Week 9 against a Bears’ defense that is much more beatable on the ground than via the pass.

Having said that, the Bears sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of opposing running back yards per carry (4.3), but they are without one of their better run stoppers in Roy Robertson-Harris this week and that will not bode well against Tennessee’s top-ten rushing offense (7th overall in run offense efficiency).

Yet again, Henry leads the AETY Model in projected rushing yards this week and leads the slate with (-240) odds to score. Ride him.
James Robinson – I was quite surprised to see how much James Robinson popped in the model this week as he certainly wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 9. The return of Chris Thompson may take some of the targets away from Robinson but I don’t think he poses much of a threat to the overall ceiling of Robinson this week (against Houston’s 27th ranked run defense who bleeds points to opposing running backs).

With the rookie QB in Jake Luton making his debut, I expect Jacksonville to play a bit conservative and utilize Robinson as much as possible (check-downs, 20+ carriers, etc.) and that should lead to a very high floor and a potential ceiling game for Robinson in NFL DFS GPP lineups… as the Jaguars play catch-up to Houston all game long.
Christian McCaffrey – It’s Christian McCaffrey and he’s priced the lowest we’ll likely ever see him again. I say it time and time again the way to move the football against Kansas City is via the run (ranked 28th in run defense DVOA). He’s been out for quite some time and all reports say that was to ensure he’s 100% healthy when he comes back to football.

That time is now and he’s going to be 5% owned… I’m in.

Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – No AJ Bouye for Denver and likely no Calvin Ridley for Atlanta. Do I need to say much more? I really like this game’s chances of being an up-paced shootout with little-to-no defense at all. Julio is arguably the top wide receiver on this slate in that situation.
Tyler Lockett – Don’t care what his ownership is, I always love top-tier wide receivers in high-total games matchup up against Buffalo slot corner, Taron Johnson.
Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney – On the other side of Derrick Henry, I’m likely to rollout one of these Bears’ wide receivers. I love picking on Tennessee’s secondary and I low-key think this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. I obviously prefer Robinson, but Mooney is 100% a serviceable punt-play as they both will get their fair share to do damage against Adoree Jackson and slow, Malcolm Butler.

With Jadeveon Clowney likely out for this game, the Titans’ awful pass rush is only going to be worse. Nick Foles should have plenty of time to get Robinson and Mooney the football (despite having tons of offensive line injuries themselves).
Justin Jefferson – The AETY Model loves the Vikings’ offense this week, so I’m likely to get a lot of exposure to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Most of my lineup builds do not allow me to afford Thielen, so I’m going to roll out a lot of 5% owned Justin Jefferson (who I honestly prefer over Thielen anyways).

These Lions’ cornerbacks with or without Desmond Trufant have struggled all season long and that is not going to change in Week 9.
Marvin Jones – I have no idea how Marvin Jones isn’t projected for 40% ownership going up against Minnesota’s poor excuse for an NFL secondary. Cam Dantzler in coverage? Yikes. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Marvin Jones is going to be a core play for me everywhere this week.
Mike Williams – Alright, it’s time for the ballsy 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown, call of the week. This week, that guy is going to be Mike Williams. This dude always has slate-breaking potential with an insanely high average depth of target and a climbing target share with Justin Herbert.

Obviously, Keenan Allen is Herbert’s boy, there is no denying that. But, as 25% of the field rushes to roster Keenan Allen, pivoting down to a much cheaper Mike Williams makes a lot of sense to me. You can also double-stack them with Herbert as well. If the Raiders can keep this game moving and keep it close, both of these wide receivers should have a field day against Trayvon Mullen, Lamarcus Joyner, and Nevin Lawson. These corners cannot contain the Chargers’ wideouts.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – It’s Travis Kelce.
Darren Waller – He’s going to be very popular, but the majority of my lineups are predicting a shootout between the Raiders and the Chargers. I’ll need a lot of production from Darren Waller in hopes that gamescript runs true.
TJ Hockenson – Similar to Marvin Jones, Hockenson should have a great bump up with Golladay out (in what’s already been a shocking amount of production in the 2020 season). I think this game will be a bit more up-paced than most think and most gamescripts come down to the Lions’ chasing points. That should bode well for both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson.
Hayden Hurst – The target share has been continuously climbing over the past few weeks and the salary has not. Without Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst should continue to see 6+ targets and boost in red-zone usage. This game is likely to be a shootout and I’ll have a lot of Hurst/Julio exposure.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks

We head over to Bermuda this week where 132 golfers will be teeing off at a another resort course which can only mean one thing: low scores. This course is very short by PGA Tour standards so OTT metrics will be less important and APP metrics will be emphasized. Join us on the Tuesday night Livestream, but if you miss it, subscribe and listen on our podcast and YouTube channel! Let’s get to the Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks.

Will Zalatoris (10900) – The secret is out on this rising star. If recent form is any indication (3 of his last 4 were Top 10 finishes), Zalatoris will finish Top 10 and has a great chance for the top spot.

Doc Redman (10400) – If you’re looking for ball striking, Doc Redman is your man. His form hasn’t been great and includes a missed cut at the Shriners, but I expect the ball striking to be on and I expect him to be in the mix the entire weekend.

Cameron Tringale (9200) – Perhaps my biases are creeping in here as I have always been a Tringale Truther, but I will definitely be overweight on Tringale this week. He’s relatively short OTT which won’t hurt him here and his APP is usually his signature strength. Tringale shaping up to be a great play (see what I did there)?

Stewart Cink (7900) – Cink won at the Safeway and then followed that up with a solid 12^th place finish at Sanderson and an underwhelming 64^th at the Shriners. An underrated golfer that should prove to be consistent across the four days of the tournament and has some finishing point upside.

Wesley Bryan (7800) – He’s great on APP and his poor OTT game shouldn’t hurt him here. Hasn’t played a ton lately but did finish 12^th at the Sanderson (had a MC before that). Solid value at this price.

Russell Knox (7600) – Five years ago you a guy like Knox would have been in the Top 5-10 in terms of pricing because his game was so suited for these shorter courses. Fast forward to 2020 and what we have is a very inconsistent golfer who has recently show flashes of his old self (9^th at Safeway). I think his price is just right here to make a play on him, but exercise caution with the number of shares.

Doug Ghim (7100) – Actually been on this guy in the last few tournaments he’s played. I got burned once but he was in the Top 25 in the other two and exceeded his value. In his last four tournaments Ghim has picked up strokes in almost all categories and has picked up almost three strokes on APP each of his last three tournaments. Sneaky play at this price.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – Risky play considering how bad he was the last time out at the Shriners, but Stanley is normally a very good ball striker and if he can somehow get the putter going, he can really come through for you. Don’t go crazy with the ownership here, but he’s worth a look.

Rob Oppenheim (7000) – Usually not great OTT, but again, not as important in Bermuda. His APP game has been on point as of late and he’s not bad with the short game either.

Hank Lebioda (6800) – Hammerin’ Hank has made 3 of his last 4 cuts and finished 3^rd at Bermuda last year. We get a low end guy with good course history and good enough recent history.

Ryan Armour (6600) – Hasn’t been good lately (hence the price point), but Armour proved he had upside after the re-start with a couple of very impressive finishing positions. Add to that he’s a relatively short hitter who won’t be intimidated by this short course and the fact that he finished 8^th here last year, and we have found some potential value.

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Another 78 person field and another opportunity to jam in upside at a no-cut event. We will bring you much more in the next 24 hours with articles and our expert chat, and of course, the Tuesday PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST @windailysports on Twitter and YouTube and Twitch. We have a relatively short course this week with five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s. I’d focus on birdie makers and APP here but you will also want to factor in accuracy OTT as there are some trouble spots on most of the holes. Here are my ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11000) – The entire team was on Xander last week and that worked out just fine, but this week I’m going to pivot from Xander to Rahm in the elite range. Rahm was average last week (17^th) and hopefully that keeps his ownership reasonable.

Justin Thomas (10600) – Another guy I like in the elite tier. His APP game is best in the field and last week’s 12^th place finish felt like a tune-up. If he can get the putter going at all you will see him contending late Sunday afternoon.

Patrick Reed (9600) – Haven’t heard from him much lately but let’s not forget the last time we did see him as at the U.S. Open where he finished 13^th. He’s also enjoyed great success on comparable courses.

Viktor Hovland (9200) – One of my top guys last week and he quietly finished in 12^th. He gained over 3 strokes ball striking last week and even gained strokes ARG which is his alleged weakness.

Bubba Watson (8700) – Literally the first time I’ve ever had Bubba in a write-up, but the guy has earned it. His ball striking has been elite lately and it’s looking like his ownership percentage will be below 10% which is notable given the price range and the number of players in the field.

Joaquin Niemann (8400) – Can go hot and cold but was great last week and has the type of upside you want. This is a great price for a guy in great form and a great course fit. I may sprinkle some on Joaquin for an outright win.

Russell Henley (8100) – I didn’t have as many shares as I should have last week and it cost me. He continues to be priced low and therefore needs to be considered as his ball striking has been great lately. Normally I’d suggest his upside is limited, but that’s hard to argue as he finished 3^rd last week. Be careful here as he picked up a ton of strokes putting last week. Still, even if putter cools down, the value is good at this price.

Sebastian Munoz (7200) – A pretty low price for a guy that has been making cuts at an incredible rate and who has the ability to finish Top 10 as he proved last week. We may be looking at a guy who is ready to consistently be in the conversation, so I’m going to jump aboard while he’s still cheap.

Joel Dahmen (6500) – In a no-cut event I’m looking for a guy who can string a very low round together and Dahmen is that guy. His blow up spot won’t cost you too much relative to the scoring potential he has all four days.

Secret Weapon (Sub 6k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight for the Tuesday Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and YouTube channel!

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

This week the PGA Tour arrives in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Similar to last week, there isn’t a ton of talent in the field, but there is certainly a talent upgrade relative to last week. We have plenty more content coming from Antonio and Steven, and of course, the PGA Livestream is every Tuesday Night @windailysports and on YouTube so please tune into that and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast. Here are my Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (9800) – This range is probably where I will be starting most of my lineups, but I will certainly have a couple shares of Scheffler, Im and Zalatoris (more on this on the Tuesday Livestream and Win Daily Podcast). I prefer more balance this week so my core will feature guys like Burns and Redman. Last week I had Burns in DFS and outright, but a disappointing Saturday took him out of contention. He rebounded nicely on Sunday and I think he has plenty of win equity in a field that features similar talent. Burns finished 45^th here last year, but finished 3^rd in 2019.

Doc Redman (9700) – One thing you’ll notice if you follow golf is that great ball strikers tend to have success on any style course, even ones where the course benefits longer hitters. Doc isn’t a hammer with the driver like Burns or Scheffler, but he’s a great ball striker and he’s an elite player in this field.

Luke List (9000) – Another guy I had heavy in DFS and outright last week and he finished Top 10. Not too bad. He missed the cut here last year and didn’t play Sanderson in 2017 or 2018, but he did finish 2^nd in 2017. A long hitter who can be hit or miss, but I’ll play the upside.

Cameron Davis (8100) – A perfect course fit and a guy who has been making cuts at an impressive rate. This guy is probably mispriced a bit and I expect him to make the cut and be in the conversation over the weekend. I already have an outright on Davis at 45 to 1.

Tom Lewis (7700) – Put this one in the ‘gut play’ category as his recent form doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy. With that said, post pandemic, I saw him get red hot at the WGC (2^nd place finish) and at less than 5% expected ownership, he can win you a GPP. Lewis SG metrics aren’t great but he does gain strokes on most of the field on Bermudagrass.

Stewart Cink (7600) – A guy I’ve been fitting into lineups for well over a year now, he’s just constantly overlooked. With a relative lack of talent in the field, I’ll take the guy who finished 1^st a few weeks back at Safeway and who had a 28^th place finish his last time on this track. Cink is yet another Bermudagrass specialist.

Nick Taylor (7400) – Taylor hasn’t been very good this year, but he’s generally good OTT and on APP and has some upside at this price. Don’t grab too many shares, but Taylor is in my player pool.

J.B. Holmes (7000) – no idea what to expect from Holmes, as injuries have plagued him for quite some time. With that said, he’s got the pedigree to compete on Sunday if he captures some of his old form. Made the cut and finished 46^th at Safeway, so at least we know he’s not in bad form. At this price, you need to take a shot in at least one lineup.

Tom Hoge (6900) – great with his irons and perhaps an underrated player. He can really get hot and cold and that can lead to one too many missed cuts to make you comfortable. However, he appears to have gained some consistency lately and I think he’s a great value if you need to dip into this range.

Adam Schenk (6700) – A couple months back I had Schenk as the WinDaily SW and he hasn’t missed a cut since (coincidence?). His weekend finishes aren’t exactly impressive but this guy appears to be a free square when it comes to making cuts. He finished 7^th here in 2019 and has made the cut all three times he’s played Sanderson.

Kelly Kraft (6400) – shout out to Mr. Joel Schrek @draftmasterflex for finding this gem last week. This guy was full of eagles or birdie streaks last week and there’s no reason not to take another shot if you need to get down to this price range.

Secret Weapon (sub7k/less than 5%) – Another solid hit last week, particularly due to a great Sunday which included an eagle and a birdie streak. The SW hasn’t missed a cut, ever. The run will end at some point, but all aboard the Secret Weapon Freight Train!

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

The PGA Tour goes to the Dominican Republic this week to take a swing at a resort course which is sure to produce some very good scores. It helps to be long here, but if past winners are any indication, it is not a requirement. Tune in TONIGHT at 8:00 to the Win Daily Livestream @windailysports with the regular cast of characters as we go over the entire DFS slate and provide some outright and H2H picks. Don’t forget to check out the rest of the content we have coming on Win Daily Sports! Here are our Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (10100) – He’s long and accurate and has been in good form (he’s coming off a 7^th at the Safeway). Burns has a great shot to win this tournament and if I was doing the pricing, he’d be at the very top. He will be chalk for sure, but I’ll have him in my GPP’s and cash.

Emiliano Grillo (9800) – He’s played five tournaments since the restart and he’s made all five cuts. He is great T2G and his success typically comes down to whether or not he can figure out the putter.

Denny McCarthy (9600) – Coming off a missed cut at the Safeway should keep his ownership down, but he was very solid before that. Also has a nice track record here and is normally great on APP and good OTT.

Luke List (8700) – List is long and is no stranger to going low. The problem is his recent form hasn’t been great. With that said, he sets up very nicely for this course and he’s another guy that just needs to find a hot putter for a couple rounds.

Kyle Stanley (8100) – Stanley hasn’t been making a ton off cuts lately (only made 2 of his last 5) but it’s interesting to note that his ball striking has been very good. He is getting killed in the PUTT department and I’m willing to take a shot on him turning that around. If Stanley’s putter is average he should be within the Top 20 on Sunday.

Patrick Rodgers (8000) – maybe a bit of a misprice here and I’m going to go ahead and take advantage of that. Five made cuts in a row for Rodgers. His APP stats on the year aren’t great, but I’m going to take recent form into account and fire away on Rodgers. Take note that this is a boom or bust play.

Will Gordon (7600) – Gordon was a DFS darling a couple months back and is now relatively forgotten, which means it’s the right time to jump aboard. He makes birdies and he’s long off the tee which is a great recipe on this track. Needs to get his APP game in order as it’s been off lately.

Chris Kirk (7400) – He’s gained OTT in each of his last four tournaments and has made four out of five cuts since the restart. Kirk is a big time comeback story and he seems to have turned a page. If he can get his APP game clicking he’s got a shot to be competing near the top on Sunday.

Doug Ghim (7300) – Not an exciting name, but he’s made two of his last three cuts (including 14^th at the Safeway) and he’s gained strokes in almost every metric during that stretch. Ghim has been particularly good on APP and with the short game.

JJ Spaun (7000) – Just to be clear, Spaun has been mostly bad over the last 12 months. But his last two tournaments he’s been dialed in with his OTT and APP game and I’m taking a shot here. This is a GPP play only and I certainly won’t have too many shares, but I’m taking a shot with Spaun.

Secret Weapon (sub 6k/sub 5%) – Get into our Expert Discord Chat for the latest installment.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 1

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – Rodgers is going completely under the radar this weekend against arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (on paper). The AETY Model has him projected for ~270 passing yards and this matchup grades as good as it did for Rodgers since Week 7 of last year against Oakland… Go look at that box score.

Rodgers is likely to be in my main lineup and we can obviously pair him up with Davante Adams (maybe even Lazard and/or Aaron Jones). Use Dalvin Cook on the back-end for a little game stack.
AETY Projection: 18.35 Points
Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Even Vegas player props have Trubisky projected for over 250 passing yards, lol. Trubisky has great history against Detroit and their man-coverage. I’ve been talking about him as a value all week and will have plenty of exposure.

Stack Options: Miller/Robinson, Miller/Graham, Robinson/Graham, Robinson/Cohen, Miller/Cohen.
AETY Projection: 17.44 Points
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – This is the nuts matchup for Russell Wilson. I don’t really care what ownership is, I’ll have a lot of him.

Stack Options: Metcalf/Lockett, Lockett/Carson, Metcalf/Carson
AETY Projection: 21.86 Points

Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson (obviously), Josh Allen

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – See the Cash Game Checkdown for write-up. I love him this weekend.
AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,800 DK) – Aaron Jones loves playing the Minnesota Vikings, averaging over 133 all-purpose yards in their last three meetings. I love Rodgers. I love Jones. I love this low owned combination paired up with a chalky (rightfully so), Davante Adams.
AETY Projection: 16.52 DK / 14.92 FD
Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – He’s just too cheap and a great opportunity to get exposure to a high-total game where everyone is playing these wide receivers. There is no threat behind Gurley regarding snap count, so Atlanta is likely to ride him. Gurley will get it done on Sunday at sub-10% ownership.

Chris Carson on the other side is also a very nice, low-owned option for contrarian exposure to this shoot-out.
AETY Projection: 17.60 DK / 15.74 FD
Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – You have all heard me praise this Stefanski outside-zone running scheme, so it should be no surprise that I’m into Chubb this week. No one is going to play him despite having an improved offensive line and dominating on a weekly basis in 2019. He’s going to get a lot of touches and we just need to hope talent and scheme outweigh a great defense.
AETY Projection: 14.43 DK / 13.53 FD
Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I’m not a believer in Arizona’s defense just yet and always want some exposure for the late-hammer in the afternoon games. I trust Shanahan’s outside-zone run scheme to take over and run away with this game. If Tevin Coleman has to miss this game due to the air quality, Mostert could offer your lineups some strong, late-upside.
AETY Projection: 13.50 DK / 12.83 FD
Matt Breida ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one simple. Breida is going to be sub-3% owned in a gamescript where the Dolphins will be chasing points. Jordan Howard won’t be involved in the “playing catch-up” scheme. Breida is going to hit 2-3x value in our NFL DFS GPP lineups, with over 60 all-purpose yards. If he can get in the box, he can be a difference maker in GPPs and an excellent pivot off of Boston Scott/Antonio Gibson chalk.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK / 9.69 FD

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen

*Keep in mind, you do-not need to use two pass catchers with your Quarterbacks. Just wanted to give you some of the options I’ll be using.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – If Mike Williams misses this game, Keenan Allen is going to be busy in what should be one of the higher-paced games on the slate.
AETY Projection: 15.70 DK / 12.46 FD
DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Everyone in the industry absolutely loved DJ Moore ALL OFF-SEASON long, but no one wants to play him in a plus-matchup against a rookie cornerback and Trayvon Mullen? I don’t get it, lol. The industry is full of frauds if DJ Moore is truly under 10% owned. Load him up.
AETY Projection: 15.11 DK / 12.09 FD
DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up from the get-go on Sunday. Chark is likely to see a 30% market share of the passes from Gardnew Minshew and that’s all I need to know. This team is going to be awful all year long, but no one in the Colts’ secondary can contain Chark.
AETY Projection: 14.85 DK / 12.12 FD
Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – I won’t eat DeSean Jackson chalk so Anthony Miller is likely to be my pivot. This dude can run crisp routes and tear apart man-coverage that Detroit is likely to throw at him. We probably will have a lot of Marvin Jones for value and one of Miller/Robinson are perfect candidates to pair on the other side.
AETY Projection: 11.34 DK / 9.11 FD

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Trent Taylor

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – He may not be under the radar by any means, but no one has the ceiling Andrews does against Cleveland this Sunday. He’s always in play and isn’t priced up where he should be.
AETY Projection: 14.32 DK / 11.94 FD
TJ Hockenson ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – No Golladay = A lot of target share to open up on Sunday. As everyone flocks to Marvin Jones (don’t get me wrong, I’ll have some too), I prefer moving down to Hockenson as I’m expecting a big opportunity in his favor. The AETY Model loves his chances of getting in the end-zone and he makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP target.
AETY Projection: 11.53 / 9.42
Mike Gesicki ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – Miami will be chasing points. New England’s linebackers cannot keep up with Gesicki. He’s probably my favorite GPP tight-end and someone I’ll always have on the other side of my Cam Newton stacks.
AETY Projection: 8.65 DK / 6.97 FD

Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goeddert, Jimmy Graham

4 years ago 0 comment

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FanDuel GPP

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Mayakoba Golf Classic: Initial Picks

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Bermuda Championship: Initial Picks

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Sanderson Farms: Initial Picks

Corales Puntacana Resort Initial Picks

Quarterbacks

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

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©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.