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DraftKings

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Oct. 11)

written by allenjesse24@yahoo.com

WE. ARE. BACK!!!!! Welcome back everyone to another season of NHL DFS action! We have a ton to offer this year for NHL at Win Daily Sports. Fresh this year is the BRAND NEW NHL Projections Model! Find everything you need here at Win Daily, and let’s jump into another fantastic hockey season with DFS picks for tonight’s two game slate!

Slate Notes

Since tonight is just a two game slate to start the season, we will break them down individually. Remember to keep it light, especially early on in the season, and even more especially because it’s two games. We are all excited for the new season, but make sure you manage your bankroll until we get more information on each team.

Small disclaimer – the rates and stats used in this article are from LAST SEASON, since we don’t have any new data on these teams just yet.

If you are uncomfortable playing the two game slate, you can attack the showdown slate using our NHL DFS Showdown Strategy Guide for guidance.

Game 1: Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Rangers

Tale of the Tape

Implied Vegas Totals: TBL 2.8 / NYR 2.9

The Lightning and Rangers kick off this season in what should be a fantastic game. This one is a rematch of the Eastern Conference Final from last year’s playoffs, and if this game is anything like that series, it will be amazing hockey to watch. Both teams are still packed with talent. The Rangers were a little bit of a surprise last year, as they weren’t really ‘supposed’ to go that deep into the playoffs. However, when you look at their roster, it makes a lot of sense why they were good, and should be better this year.

Goalie Matchup

Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Igor Shesterkin

This is like an old school heavyweight bout! These two goalies are vying to be the best in the league, and they are very, very, very close to being 1-2. Both Vas and Igor have had some incredible seasons over the last couple of years, and Igor just took home the Vezina last year.

Both of these goalies are in play tonight, as they should be every night this season. It is virtually a coin flip as to who will win, but it seems the Rangers have a slight edge and should be able to take this game tonight. Igor is the lean, but it’s two games, so don’t be afraid to just correlate your goalie with your stacks.

Lines to Target

NYR1 – Mika Zibanejad/Kaapo Kakko/Chris Kreider/Adam Fox: As usual, it is hard to ignore the top line for the Rangers. They have a lot of firepower and talent. Kakko makes a nice value piece to pair with the big guns, and should benefit from the talent around him.

TBLPP – Steven Stamkos/Brayden Point/Nikita Kucherov/Alex Killorn/Victor Hedman: There is not much to say about one of the more lethal scoring units in the league. If you like the Tampa side better than the New York side, then these will be your targets.

NYR2 – Vincent Trocheck/Artemi Panarin/Vitali Kravstrov: The addition of Trocheck here really makes this line interesting. Kravstov is a rookie and could fly way under the radar tonight from an ownership perspective, so if you go here, make sure to get him in.

Others to Consider: NYR3

Value

Filip Chytil (C) – NYR

Vitali Kravstov (W) – NYR

Kaapo Kakko (W) – NYR

Ross Colton (W) – TBL

Brandon Hagel (W) – TBL

Game 2: Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings

Tale of the Tape

Implied Vegas Totals: VGK 3.00 / LAK 3.10

This game comes off as the more ‘boring’ game of the pair, but should be better than it looks on the surface. LA snuck into the playoffs last year and gave Edmonton a run in the first round, taking them to seven games. The Kings ultimately lost that series, but it was very fun to watch. The Knights were a bit of a disappointment last year, and they didn’t do very much this year to get that much better. The Kings are a very interesting look for this slate.

Goalie Matchup

Logan Thompson vs. Jonathan Quick

It’s the old guy versus the new guy tonight. Logan Thompson is a young goalie who has looked pretty good recently. He should be a mainstay for the Knights this year, but we have yet to see how he can be over time. Quick had a bit of a resurgence last year, and the question becomes – can he keep that up?

The Kings have a sneaky scoring team, so Quick appears to be in the better spot in this game. There will be a little more focus on the early game, so you may be able to get him lower than both Igor and Vas. Thompson is definitely worth a shot in the deeper GPP contests, but he carries the most risk on the slate.

Lines to Target

VGK1 – Jack Eichel/Reilly Smith/Phil Kessel/Alec Martinez: This is the easy way to stack the Knights, but the question becomes – are they actually going to produce?

LAK2 – Phillip Danault/Viktor Arvidsson/Trevor Moore: This line is together again this year, and they should be just as fun to watch as they were last year. Not a lot of people will look at this line tonight, so this is a very nice leverage spot.

LAK1 – Anze Kopitar/Kevin Fiala/Adrian Kempe/Drew Doughty: We can’t ignore this line, as they should be a decent scoring line for the Kings. They are in a good spot tonight at home against a young goalie.

Others to Consider: VGK3, LAK3

Value

Quinton Byfield (C) – LAK

Gabriel Vilardi (W) – LAK

Phil Kessel (W) – VGK

Alec Martinez (D) – VGK – if he blocks shots like he did a season and a half ago, this price is criminally low

Sean Walker (D) – LAK

Player Props

In this section, we will highlight some NHL player props that we like for the upcoming NHL slate.

Chris Kreider (NYR): over 2.5 shots on goal

Phillip Danault (LAK): over 0.5 points

Shea Theodore (VGK): over 1.5 blocked shots

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and any advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

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2 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 5 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.

Justin Jefferson’s 2022 is off to a stellar start. Week 5 saw him get 13 targets for a second straight week. We also saw Jefferson eclipse double-digit catches for second straight week as he was able to haul in 12 of those 13 targets. At the end of the day, Jefferson finished with 154 yards on those 12 catches. While he didn’t find the endzone, he did end up with a two-point conversion. Up next week for the Vikings will be a date with the Miami Dolphins and a matchup of two of the best in the league at what they do, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.

Yes, you are reading that correctly. Randall Cobb was tied for the lead this weekend for wide receiver targets with 13. That is not a typo. The 13 targets Cobb had were the most he’s had in a game since all the way back in Week 15 of 2017. Coming into Week 5, Cobb had only been targeted 12 times. We should consider this week an outlier as he normally only gets 2-3 targets a game.

Mike Williams continues to dominate. Williams had double-digit targets for a second straight week and 3 out of his last 4 games. His 13 targets this week were the most he’s had this season, as were the 10 catches. His final stat line was extremely impressive as he finished with 10 catches for 134 yards. The only negative here was he failed to find the endzone. Up next will be a matchup against the Broncos and their tough D.

Running Back Targets

Christian McCaffrey and his pass-catching game is back. For a second straight week, McCaffrey has set a season-high in targets. After being targeted 9 times in Week 4, McCaffrey was targeted 12 times in Week 5. Those were his most targets since all the way back in 2019. For a fourth straight week, McCaffrey finished with at least 100 yards from scrimmage.

The targets for Leonard Fournette are slowly coming around. Each week Fournette has seen more and more targets. In Week 5, Fournette set a season-high with 11 targets. He was able to catch 10 of them 83 yards and had a receiving TD for a second straight week. Fournette will look to keep the good times going in Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Tight End Targets

Tyler Higbee continues to be one of Matthew Stafford’s favorite targets. While the 10 targets he had in Week 5 weren’t the most he’s had this season, it was the third time this season that Higbee had double-digit targets. It wasn’t all rosy for Higbee though as he was only able to catch 7 of them for just 46 yards. The 46 yards were the fewest he’s had since Week 1. Up next for the Rams will be the Panthers, a team that has given up less than 200 receiving yards so far to Tight Ends.

After being essentially invisible in Weeks 3 and 4, Evan Engram set a season-high in targets with 10 in Week 5. His 10 targets were the most he’s had since 2020 when he was a member of the New York Giants. Engram was able to catch 6 of the 10 targets for 69 yards. The 69 yards were the most he’s had this season.

Quarterback Target Share

When you have a pass-catching back like Christian McCaffrey, you better heavily utilize him in the passing game. And that’s exactly what Mayfield did in Week 5. Nearly 35% of the 25 pass attempts by Mayfield went to his backs. McCaffrey’s 7 targets were far and away the most by anyone on the Panthers this past weekend.

On the polar opposite end of the spectrum, I present to you the Buffalo Bills. Nearly 80% of all of Josh Allen’s passes went to his receivers this weekend. All but 7 of his 36 passes went to his receivers. Devin Singletary was targeted just 2 times and Tight End Quintin Morris was targeted 5 times.

Running Back Touches

No running back had more attempts than Derrick Henry in Week 5. That’s a statement we’ve heard often over the last several seasons. For the fourth time this season, Henry eclipsed 20 runs. His 28 attempts this weekend were the most he’s had this season. Henry also set a season-high with 2 touchdowns in Week 5. All in all, Henry went for 102 rushing yards on his 28 carries. He’ll have a chance to rest those legs this weekend as the Titans have a bye in Week 6.

After averaging around 15 carries through the first 4 weeks of the season, Dameon Pierce set a career-high with 26 carries in Week 5. He just missed having a second consecutive 100-yard rushing game as he finished with 99 yards. He did find the endzone though for the third straight week. The rookie running back is slowly becoming the focal point of this Texans offense.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Up early in this one, the undefeated Dallas Cowboys went with a run-heavy offense. Of their 50 plays on Sunday, 34 were for runs and only 16 pass attempts. While the majority of the carries went to Elliot this week, Tony Pollard was the one that did the damage thanks to a 57-yard TD run in the second quarter that put the Cowboys up for good in this one.

Having a QB that can throw with some competence, the Steelers ran pass plays more than 70% of the time on Sunday. Most of that was dictated by the score though as the Steelers were essentially down from the moment Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense took the field. In Kenny Pickett’s first career start, he threw the ball 52 times and ended up with 327 passing yards. Even though he threw a ton of passes, none went for a TD as the Steelers were slaughtered by the Bill 38-3. Ouch, Pittsburgh!

Always make sure to check out our projection model before setting your weekly lineups.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comment

NFL