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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 29)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Today we have a split slate of games, with both being small 4-game slates of MLB DFS.  This article will highlight the early slate.  For info about the late slate, make sure to drop into discord where we’ll be talking about plays for it later today.      

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ranger Suarez vs. Chicago Cubs

I should lead by saying that pitching is absolutely atrocious on this early slate.  Every pitcher has the ability to put up single digits today.  Ranger Suarez does however appear to be one of the safer options on the mound.  The Cubs aren’t a very good team.  But this is the time of year when “kids” are in the lineup playing for their spot on next year’s roster.  This same Cubs team put up a 4 spot on Aaron Nola last night and gave him the big fat L. 

That said, this is also a Cubs team that is not very good against lefties.  The projected lineup tonight has just a .090 ISO vs. lefties over the last month and a K rate over 28%.  Suarez doesn’t have much K upside, but he does have what is probably the highest floor of any pitcher this afternoon.  Normally we chase ceilings, but on a day with options like we have today, I’m going to go with the safety net.  

Jonathan Heasley vs. Detroit Tigers

This pick makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth.  That said, Heasley has actually been pitching really well of late.  He’s been doing a great job of limiting any hard contact as his hard-hit rate is just 26% over the last month.  That’s one of the best marks of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon.  He’s also been in double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 outings. 

It also helps that he draws a great matchup against a bad Tigers team.  The projected lineup today has just a .149 ISO and a .291 wOBA against righties over the last month.  This is far from a safe pick, but he’s been pitching well and gets a great matchup.  Being only $7.1k on DK today makes me a little more comfortable using him as an SP2 today. 

Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins

The one pitcher on this afternoon’s slate with any type of strikeout upside is Lucas Giolito.  Over the last month, he has had a 27% K rate.  The next pitcher on the list is Javier Assad at just 22%.  While the year hasn’t been great for Gio, his xFIP of 3.66 tells us that a lot of it has just been bad luck for Gio. 

He has a career-high BABIP of .352.  His next closest season is .273.  He is however coming into this off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Tigers, so his confidence is probably pretty high.  Those 9 k’s were the most he’s had in a game since May.  I will more than likely go with a combo of Suarez and Heasley, but if you want to feel frisky today Gio is your guy. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Javier Assad

We’re at a weird time of the year.  Many teams have been eliminated and only a handful of teams have anything to play for.  The Phillies are one of the few that have a reason to play hard right now.  Their loss to the Cubs last night trimmed their Wild Card lead over the Brewers to just a half-game.  They are in a must-win mode right now.  Luckily for them, they get a soft matchup vs. Javier Assad today. 

The key for the Phillies today will be to remain patient at the plate.  Assad has a ton of issues with walks of late, as evidenced by his 5.4 BB/9 over the last month.  In his last 3 starts, he’s given up a combined 10 walks while striking out 11.  Not exactly a great ratio.  With Assad, we’ll want to attack him with lefties.  Lefties have a .469 slugging % and a .363 wOBA.  Both are significantly higher than what righties have done against him. 

Core/Value:   My Phillies core this afternoon will consist of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh.  My favorite here is by far Bryce Harper.  Assad throws his cutter to lefties around 36% of the time.  That’s his most heavily used pitch against them.  This is a pitch that Harper has crushed.  Over the last several seasons, Harper has a .511 ISO and a .506 wOBA vs. righty cutters.  It’s been a few days since Harper last homered and that very well could change today with how well he lines up with Assad. 

While Marsh doesn’t have the power numbers against cutters that Harper has, he’s no slouch against them as he has a .440 wOBA vs. righty cutters.  He’s just $2.1k today and is a great value. 

Secondary Pieces:  Other bats I’ll look to include here this afternoon will be Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm. 

Chicago White Sox vs. Louie Varland

I typically reserve using the White Sox against lefties but they get a really nice matchup today.  Varland has really been getting smacked around since getting called up to the big leagues. In just 16 innings of work Varland has given up 4 homers and 5 barrels.  His hard-hit rate against is 41% and his flyball rate is over 45%.  With both of those numbers being over 40%, it’s really a recipe for complete disaster. 

So far in his big league career, it’s been the righties that have given him the most heartbreak.  Righties have a .618 slugging % vs. him and a .418 wOBA.  Both numbers are extremely high and he’s going to face a righty dominant lineup today.  I’m not going to ignore the lefties there though because they still have a .467 slugging % vs. him. 

Core:  My core with the White Sox today starts and ends with Eloy Jimenez.  Anytime there’s a reverse splits pitcher going against Jimenez I pounce on the opportunity to use him.  He’s been phenomenal vs. righties this season, hitting over .300 and slugging over .500.  He’s gone hitless in his last 2 games, but that changes today. 

Secondary/Value:  After locking in Jimenez, I’m going to load up on bats like Elvis Andrus, Jose Abreu, and Gavin Sheets.  This has Gavin Sheets home run day written all over it.  Sheets has a .262 ISO against righties over the past month and a .303 wOBA.  I normally pick my spots with Sheets and this is one of the spots I really like him in.  It also helps that Sheets is just $2.5k on DK this afternoon.  He is one of my favorite value pieces of the day. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Baumann

I will more than likely be sticking with the Phillies and White Sox, but the Red Sox are also in a good spot today.  My concern with the Red Sox though is that Baumann is an extreme groundball pitcher.  If you go here, you’ll want to go full stack or no stack.  Home run chasing in this matchup will be extremely difficult against a pitcher that has a nearly 56% groundball rate, and one that climbs to over 80% against lefties. 

That said, Baumann also gives up a ton of hard contact.  His hard-hit rate over the last month is over 44%, by far the most of any pitcher on this afternoon’s slate.  Lefties, while hitting a ton of grounders against him, have a hard-hit rate of over 57% against him. 

Core: My Red Sox core today will start with Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts.  Verdugo is really hot at the plate right now.  He had another 2 hits in last night’s game, one of which left the park.  He has hits in 8 straight games and very well could make it 9 today.  Against righties over the last month, he has a .361 wOBA and a .208 ISO.  Up next will be Devers. 

Devers is also swinging a hot stick right now, with 6 hits in 12 AB in this series.  He only has 2 AB vs. Baumann but is 2 for 2.  He’s been of the Red Sox’s best hitters all year and should have a solid day at the plate today. 

Value:  I also really like Rob Refsndyer and Connor Wong here for value.  Both guys are priced under $3k today and have been extremely productive of late.  They should help you fit any bats you want today.        

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Twins vs. Giolito if you don’t use him and the Royals vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.     Also, if you aren’t using Heasley, stack against him with some Tigers.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 3 – Win Daily Sports

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Let’s dig into the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Hollywood!  With Kyler Murray throwing the ball 55 times in Week 3, Marquise Brown was the biggest beneficiary.  The Ravens cast-off was targeted a career-high 17 times this past weekend.  Prior to this weekend, the most he had ever had in a game was 14.  He somewhat made the most of it as he finished with 14 catches and 140 receiving yards.  The 140 were the most he’s had in a game since his first career game back in 2019.  The only thing that Brown didn’t do this weekend was find the endzone. 

Thanks to the early exits of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry this weekend, it was the Chris Olave show.  Olave had 13 targets for a second straight week.  Unlike last week though, he was able to make the most of them as he caught 9 of the 13 for 147 yards.  With 29 targets so far through 3 games, Olave is playing an important part in this offense.  Up next for the Saints will be a matchup with the Vikings, a team that has given up the sixth most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this season.

DeVonta Smith, have yourself a day!  With targets being spread out thanks to the acquisition of A.J. Brown we probably won’t see games like this often. But when they do, oh we’ll want to enjoy them.  Smith had one of the most productive games of his young career thanks to the 12 targets.  He was able to catch 8 of them for 169 yards and found the endzone once.  The 169 yards receiving were the most he’s ever had in an NFL game. 

Running Back Targets

This week was a little bit more back to normal for the running backs and targets.  We had 2 guys surpass double digits, compared to just 1 last week.  Jets running back Breece Hall was tied for the lead this weekend in running back targets with 11.  The rookie running back has now had 2 games where he had at least 9 targets.  He’s quickly become a focal point of this offense.  With the return of Zach Wilson expected to be this week, it will be interesting to see if Hall continues to get a healthy amount of targets.

While Austin Ekeler’s ground game was MIA this weekend, his targets were not.  He was targeted 8 times this weekend and is now up to 22 targets on the year.  He hasn’t been able to get much going on the ground, but through the air is where continues to be more productive and more important to this Chargers team. 

Tight End Targets

As someone that lives in Baltimore and is part of a family that is crazy for Ravens football, it’s been extremely fun to be able to watch Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson grow together. This QB/TE tandem may be the best in the game.  Andrews had a monster game on Sunday, finished with 8 catches on 13 targets and 2 TD.  This weekend will be a much tougher task for him though as the Bills have been one of the best teams in the league at defending tight ends.

Marquise Brown wasn’t the only Cardinals player to get into the fun this weekend, well at least in terms of targets.  Zach Ertz was the second most targeted tight end this weekend with 10.  This was the second straight week with double-digit targets.  It was also the second straight that Ertz did very little with the targets.  He was able to catch just 6 of the targets this weekend for 45 yards.  All in all a pretty disappointing weekend for him. 

Quarterback Target Share

The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver is not off to a great start.  Although the Broncos pulled out the victory in Week 3, Wilson had an awful game.  He finished with just 184 passing yards on 33 throws.  Of his 33 passes, he relieved heavily on his backs as they accounted for nearly 40% of his targets. 

When you have 2 stud receivers in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, there’s really no need to throw the ball to anyone but them.  Of Jalen Hurts’ 34 pass attempts, 22 of them went to that duo and more than 70% of his passes in total went to receivers. 

Running Back Touches

I said it earlier with the targets, but we saw a little bit of a return to normalcy with running backs in Week 3.  A healthy Christian McCaffrey led all running backs with 25 rushes this past weekend.  He was able to convert those rushes into 108 yards rushing.  The 25 rushes were the most he’s had in a game since all the way back in Week 7 of 2019.  The second consecutive week with over 100 yards rushing was also the first time he’s done that since 2019.  A healthy McCaffrey is good for fantasy and also good for the NFL.

If you rostered David Montgomery in Week3 in DFS, you were probably left disappointed and outside the cash line.  The matchup was pristine and the end result for his replacement was simply amazing.  Khalil Herbert stepped in after Montgomery’s injury and had himself a career game.  He rushed 20 times for 157 and 2 TD.  This was his second career 100-yard game.  If he’s available in your season-long league, go snatch him up.  Now. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

The Chicago Bears so far this season have just run, and run, and run. Justin Fields is nowhere close to a fantasy option as the Bears’ offense relies heavily on the run.  This week they threw the ball less than 30% of the time, a trend now for 3 consecutive weeks.

With the run game completely ineffective this weekend, the Buccaneers went with a pass-heavy offense.  Tom Brady threw the ball 42 times this weekend, the most he’s had in a game this season.  The Bucs’ offense was a disaster as a whole as they only scored 12 points this weekend.  That said, you can certainly use the excuse that they were missing some key weapons with Evans, Jones, and Godwin all out. 

Make sure to check out our new PrizePicks model.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 3 – Win Daily Sports

Dave Gloeckner
written by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Let’s dig into the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Hollywood!  With Kyler Murray throwing the ball 55 times in Week 3, Marquise Brown was the biggest beneficiary.  The Ravens cast-off was targeted a career-high 17 times this past weekend.  Prior to this weekend, the most he had ever had in a game was 14.  He somewhat made the most of it as he finished with 14 catches and 140 receiving yards.  The 140 were the most he’s had in a game since his first career game back in 2019.  The only thing that Brown didn’t do this weekend was find the endzone. 

Thanks to the early exits of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry this weekend, it was the Chris Olave show.  Olave had 13 targets for a second straight week.  Unlike last week though, he was able to make the most of them as he caught 9 of the 13 for 147 yards.  With 29 targets so far through 3 games, Olave is playing an important part in this offense.  Up next for the Saints will be a matchup with the Vikings, a team that has given up the sixth most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this season.

DeVonta Smith, have yourself a day!  With targets being spread out thanks to the acquisition of A.J. Brown we probably won’t see games like this often. But when they do, oh we’ll want to enjoy them.  Smith had one of the most productive games of his young career thanks to the 12 targets.  He was able to catch 8 of them for 169 yards and found the endzone once.  The 169 yards receiving were the most he’s ever had in an NFL game. 

Running Back Targets

This week was a little bit more back to normal for the running backs and targets.  We had 2 guys surpass double digits, compared to just 1 last week.  Jets running back Breece Hall was tied for the lead this weekend in running back targets with 11.  The rookie running back has now had 2 games where he had at least 9 targets.  He’s quickly become a focal point of this offense.  With the return of Zach Wilson expected to be this week, it will be interesting to see if Hall continues to get a healthy amount of targets.

While Austin Ekeler’s ground game was MIA this weekend, his targets were not.  He was targeted 8 times this weekend and is now up to 22 targets on the year.  He hasn’t been able to get much going on the ground, but through the air is where continues to be more productive and more important to this Chargers team. 

Tight End Targets

As someone that lives in Baltimore and is part of a family that is crazy for Ravens football, it’s been extremely fun to be able to watch Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson grow together. This QB/TE tandem may be the best in the game.  Andrews had a monster game on Sunday, finished with 8 catches on 13 targets and 2 TD.  This weekend will be a much tougher task for him though as the Bills have been one of the best teams in the league at defending tight ends.

Marquise Brown wasn’t the only Cardinals player to get into the fun this weekend, well at least in terms of targets.  Zach Ertz was the second most targeted tight end this weekend with 10.  This was the second straight week with double-digit targets.  It was also the second straight that Ertz did very little with the targets.  He was able to catch just 6 of the targets this weekend for 45 yards.  All in all a pretty disappointing weekend for him. 

Quarterback Target Share

The Russell Wilson experiment in Denver is not off to a great start.  Although the Broncos pulled out the victory in Week 3, Wilson had an awful game.  He finished with just 184 passing yards on 33 throws.  Of his 33 passes, he relieved heavily on his backs as they accounted for nearly 40% of his targets. 

When you have 2 stud receivers in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, there’s really no need to throw the ball to anyone but them.  Of Jalen Hurts’ 34 pass attempts, 22 of them went to that duo and more than 70% of his passes in total went to receivers. 

Running Back Touches

I said it earlier with the targets, but we saw a little bit of a return to normalcy with running backs in Week 3.  A healthy Christian McCaffrey led all running backs with 25 rushes this past weekend.  He was able to convert those rushes into 108 yards rushing.  The 25 rushes were the most he’s had in a game since all the way back in Week 7 of 2019.  The second consecutive week with over 100 yards rushing was also the first time he’s done that since 2019.  A healthy McCaffrey is good for fantasy and also good for the NFL.

If you rostered David Montgomery in Week3 in DFS, you were probably left disappointed and outside the cash line.  The matchup was pristine and the end result for his replacement was simply amazing.  Khalil Herbert stepped in after Montgomery’s injury and had himself a career game.  He rushed 20 times for 157 and 2 TD.  This was his second career 100-yard game.  If he’s available in your season-long league, go snatch him up.  Now. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

The Chicago Bears so far this season have just run, and run, and run. Justin Fields is nowhere close to a fantasy option as the Bears’ offense relies heavily on the run.  This week they threw the ball less than 30% of the time, a trend now for 3 consecutive weeks.

With the run game completely ineffective this weekend, the Buccaneers went with a pass-heavy offense.  Tom Brady threw the ball 42 times this weekend, the most he’s had in a game this season.  The Bucs’ offense was a disaster as a whole as they only scored 12 points this weekend.  That said, you can certainly use the excuse that they were missing some key weapons with Evans, Jones, and Godwin all out. 

Make sure to check out our new PrizePicks model.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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