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DraftKings

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5

We have a monster slate in front of us tonight with 22 teams in action and a whole lot of players to monitor. As is always the case, you need to be around all night because anything can happen with so many teams in play. Let’s start outlining the spots we like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5 to find paths to green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Hawks at Kings

Hawks – The majority of the most appealing games are in the late window and this one has to be up there. The biggest question in this game is Trae Young because he’s nursing a back injury but it sure didn’t bother him the other night when he scored 56 points. With the Hawks still heavily short-handed, Young has to carry this team and in the past week, he has had a 37.8% usage rate and 1.64 FPPM. While Young is a very strong target, we likely don’t want to bank on him scoring 56 real points again and there are some other Hawks to look at.

The trio of Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, and even Danilo Gallinari all can get a look against a Kings team on a back-to-back spot. We all know they play at a top 10 pace and bottom five in defensive rating, facets not likely to improve tonight. Reddish was out this past game and both Gallo and Huerter played 32 minutes. Gallo would be the prime candidate to see his minutes reduce if Reddish makes it back but Huerter is a strong target regardless of format. If he was able to play 37 minutes in his first game out of protocols, that’s a very positive step. Clint Capela is also well in play in a great spot in the paint.

Kings – The Kings are still actively playing as this is being written but nobody is priced over $7,700. Both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are primary options are Haliburton has been dishing assists, a shift in the offense. Fox has been more in the backseat as far as ball distribution, but we’ll need to see how they shake out during the day.

Heat at Blazers

Heat – This game should have plenty of chalky pieces but we’ll start with the visitors. Jimmy Butler is out for this game, joining Bam Adebayo and others. Miami could get some reinforcements depending on protocols, but the main targets are the group of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven, and then possibly Caleb Martin. These players all went for over 33 minutes and that was even with Yurtseven missing most of the first quarter. The sample size keeps getting bigger, but Lowry and Herro are both at 1.07 FPPM and 1.10 FPPM. The salaries are affordable and Lowry is likely the better cash play while Herro has a little more upside and usage at 31.5%. Yurtseven is very strong at his salary and they’ll need him on the interior, while we need to see who all is available for the heat before deciding on Martin.

Blazers – After lighting it up in his first game back, I fully expect Anfernee Simons to be among the chalkiest plays on the slate again. He’s not going to score 43 real points again but at this salary, he doesn’t need to come close to that. The Blazers are missing both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum again tonight and Simons has a 31.5% usage rate in that scenario with 1.00 fantasy points per minute. Norman Powell isn’t far behind those marks and Jusuf Nurkic feels a little expensive, but he actually leads the team in usage at 33.9% and fantasy points per minute at 1.37. He put up over 40 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes and he could see a minute bump after getting a game under his belt. The field could flock to Nassir Little as well. Larry Nance is doubtful for tonight and even though Little was already starting, he went nuts last game and Robert Covington likely enters the starting lineup. The quartet of Simons, Powell, Nurk, and Little are all very viable tonight.

Raptors at Bucks

Raptors – Toronto is still missing some role players, so expect BIG minutes from the starters again. I really like Fred VanVleet not only because the guy is running hot, but he’s over 40% from three this season. Milwaukee is allowing the highest frequency of attempts at almost 47% and total attempts per game at 42. OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam are all in play and the good news is they blew out the Spurs last night. These players mostly played fewer minutes than their average and the Bucks push the pace at ninth in the league.

Bucks – Milwaukee is going to be without a lot of depth tonight as Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and Donte DiVincenzo are all out. Jordan Nwora is questionable and he may have to move into the starting lineup. Based on the last game, they have roughly 50 minutes to fill in their rotation. The main cogs are going to pick up some of that slack and Giannis Antetokounmpo is about as safe as they cam for floor and his ceiling is over 75 DraftKings points. It’s not like he only sits in the paint, but Toronto is 22nd in points allowed in the paint and has little to offer for resistance.

Teams to Monitor

Jazz – The slate could really flip on its head depending on what the Jazz do tonight. Joe Ingles is out, while Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Hassan Whiteside are all questionable. This team could have massive value, or they could be the exact same as always if everyone winds up playing.

Pacers – I’m hoping they get Malcolm Brogdon back tonight because Duane Washington and Keifer Sykes went down in salary. Thanks, DraftKings, just make things even chalkier.

76ers – They are mostly healthy but Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey are out. That means Seth Curry will have to handle the point guard duties and with him being $300 more than Simons, he’ll check in as an elite GPP target.

Rockets – They should get Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. back tonight. Wood is under $6,500 against Washington, which is an incredible bargain if you trust the minutes.

Wizards – They are likely without Spencer Dinwiddie, leaving Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma as options tonight.

Mavericks – Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out, so Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber would be the primary options. Just keep in mind that Luka without KP this year has only added 1.9% for his usage and 0.05 FPPM, so it hasn’t been a giant spike. That’s not to say don’t think about playing him, just to understand what he’s shown.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks

Isaiah 3 years ago

written by Isaiah

Welcome back golf fans. This week the PGA Tour travels to beautiful Maui, Hawaii for the first event of the calendar year. The Sentry Tournament of Champions (TOC) is played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua. It’s the only par 73 PGA course on tour, and measures out around 7596 yard (which also makes it the longest). Don’t let the yardage fool you as Kapalua is by all standards a “resort” course designed for vacationers to enjoy themselves. There are multiple changes in elevation, extremely wide fairways, and gigantic Bermuda greens. The warm coastal winds, and 93 bunkers are its only defense. This invite-only event consists of the 40 PGA winners from the last calendar year (Xander Schauffele did not win a PGA event last season, but is here on a special exemption for winning gold at the Tokyo Olympics). As of now we are down to 38 players as Rory opted out and Cam Champ is out with Covid. Kapalua is a true birdie fest which has produced minimum scores of -20 for each of the previous 7 years except one (which had serious wind and weather issues which are not expected this year).

I want to mention a few quick tidbits to think about while selecting your lineups: 12 of the last 13 Sentry TOC winners have played in December of the previous year and 5 of the last 7 champions have won on their second trip here. However, players making their debut here haven’t won since Daniel Chopra in 2008. I believe that both course history and recent form are a major factor to consider at Kapalua.

Key Metrics (in order)

These fairways average almost 60 yards wide so accuracy off the tee is of minimal importance. This is also a factor when considering golfers that specialize in gaining strokes on the field with their accuracy (i.e. Morikawa, Ancer). Distance is ALWAYS a key in golf, but previous winners have shown it’s not a necessity here. This has me leaving SG: OTT (off the tee) out of my model altogether.

SG: APP (approach)

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Par 5

SG: P (putting, on Bermuda)

Putting: 10-15 feet

Scrambling

Initial Picks

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – The only multiple winner here (with a couple 3rds as well), coming in HOT with something to prove this year. Always starts the year well and results have shown since making the switch to ‘Bones’ on the bag.

Patrick Cantlay ($9700) – Skeptical as we haven’t seen him in a while. The reigning Fed-Ex Champion is just priced too low here IMO.

Xander Schauffele ($9500) – Similar to JT, he’s a boss at no-cut events. Another impeccable record here with something to prove.

Jordan Speith ($8900) – My favorite play on the board. Got on the podium in 3 of 4 appearances (4^th was a 9^th). Risky, but he became a new Dad in the fall (I’ll let it slide). The craftiest player I know around the greens. Time to get back to work at a course he loves.

Daniel Berger ($8400) – He’s just always in the top 10. Perfect lineup filler at this price.

Cameron Smith ($8300) – Like Jordan, great around and on the greens. OTT woes won’t come into play here. Big things are coming this year for Cam (2^nd trip narrative).

Sungjae Im ($8200) – Seems to be coming back into the form we all grew to love. 2^nd Trip Narrative in play after finishing T5 with all four rounds in the 60’s last year.

Patrick Reed ($7900) – Think he’s carrying a BIG CHIP on his shoulders after the Ryder Cup snub. Stats are never there, but history? Win in ‘15, 2^nd in ‘16, 6^th in ‘17, playoff in ‘20. Expecting low ownership for my GPP guy.

Others If You Must: Talor Gooch ($7600), Mark Leishman ($7500), Max Homa ($6700), Seamus Power ($6600), Phil Mickelson ($6500)

Punt Play: K. H. Lee ($6000)

WinDaily has 3 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our Tuesday night show here with Sia, Joel, and Spencer (or on Apple podcasts or the win daily video hub). Spencer also releases an article later in the week. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family. If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Kapalua Plantation Course

7,596 Yards – Par 73 – Greens: Bermuda

To me, this is one of the most straightforward courses that we have on tour every season. There are pros and cons to that answer since I tend to like the ability to diversify my thought process from the masses, but 50-yard wide fairways highlight a venue where players are going to be able to do anything they want off the tee. Think of a birdie fest where the tour wants golfers to receive a start of the year present to reward their accomplishment from the season before.

It is worth noting that Kapalua is the only Par 73 that golfers play on tour each year. That, along with elevation, quiets the nearly 7,600-yard total that might appear jarring at first glance if you removed those two factors from the mix. I think distance is certainly weighable, but the fact that the top-six participants last year finished 25th, 17th, 7th, 31st, 12th and 32nd in distance off the tee during the event tells me that placing it into a model might do so more harm than good.

Instead, I would rather look at more course-specific stats since we get a unique layout. There are 11 par-fours. Eight are under 425 yards; the additional three play at least 520 yards. The four par-fives are the most accessible holes. Three of them yield a 48.7% birdie or better rate. The fifth hole is the most getable at 63.2%, and the grainy Bermuda surface can slow things down and provide some tricky lag putts when we consider that proximity is about 7-feet higher than players might expect. As always, you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck, where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday – only at WinDaily Sports.

Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%) & Birdie or Better (17.5%) – I realize 35% on scoring is a ton, but 34 of the 42 players last year were 11-under par or better. You will have to reach a minimum of 25-under to win this thing if winds don’t alter the event. In my opinion, we can’t afford to be underweight to either category when small margins are going to decide the winner.
Pertinent Proximity Ranges (15%) – That gets us into 45.1% of approach shots when looking at the specific ranges from 0-100 and 200+. I don’t love leaving 50%+ of a quantifiable statistic on the table, but I found it to be a unique approach because it starts to hone in on where most of the scoring opportunities will present themselves. Sure, I might miss out on random chance between a yardage stretching between 100-125 yards, but proximity totals tend to be a faulty statistic when you aren’t building it out to mimic a course entirely. A golfer that can hit an iron from 99 yards doesn’t all of a sudden lose it when the distance goes to 101.
Putting From 5-10 Feet (10%) – I prefer this route over three-putt percentage for two core reasons. And btw, I think you can use three-putt instead and be just fine, but 1. It separates my thought process marginally when most users will implement the alternative into their weights, but more importantly, these greens are wildly different from most stops where issues might arise. Often, problems come from speed issues where the ball rolls quickly past the hole, creating the break and speed being tough to figure out correctly coming back. We won’t have that situation here. Putting does seem to be easy from 5-10 feet for good putters, which shows why golfers that excel from that distance have found success in the past.
Course Specific Par-Four (15%) – That incorporates 30% on scoring between 350-400 yards, 40% 400-450 and 30% 500+. Some notable top-seven golfers there were Reed, Xander, Leishman Spieth, Rahm and Thomas. That is every winner in this field since 2014 besides Harris English, who finished a respectable 14th in that category.
Strokes Gained Total on Slow-to-Average Bermuda (12.5%) – View this as a secondary way to get putting into the mix.
Strokes Gained Total on Easy to Hit Fairways at Average-To-Long Courses (12.5%) – I like this statistic because it doesn’t punish your wayward drivers like Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed. If they can win here, I want to see who improves when the fairways open up, not who can hit it the longest or the straightest on a standard track.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Jon Rahm has never finished worse than 10th in his four prior showings at Kapalua, and it is going to be impossible to run an adequate model that doesn’t at least show him to be one of the main threats to take home the title. This week, my biggest issue with him is that he typically turns into a better play when the course becomes more difficult. These birdie fests limit his upside, although we can work around that if the leverage situation remains where it is with him being only 20%.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10.200) – Bryson DeChambeau is in a bit of a different boat than we just talked about with Jon Rahm, even if their ownership percentages are within the same ballpark. The reason I mention that is because the American has a specific skill set that likely produces the most runaway type potential of anyone in this field, but there are red flags for a golfer that ranks last in this tournament between 0-100 yards in my model. We know he will be bombing drives off the tee and playing with a ton of short irons into the greens, and there are multiple ways the week could unfold for him. I am willing to place him into my core because the potential for victory exceeds any golfer in this field not named Justin Thomas, but the 50% discount in popularity is just too juicy to ignore when looking at a potential pivot.

Fade – Viktor Hovland ($10,000) – I don’t want to overanalyze the 31st place finish last year for Viktor Hovland, but there are concerns on my end with his ranking of 38 out of 38 players in this field around the green over his past 24 rounds. These are large surfaces that will amplify his struggles if he does happen to miss, and I’m not necessarily encouraged by his 35th place rank when looking at just slow Bermuda.

$9,000 Range

Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) – Sign me up if Patrick Cantlay goes off this week at 20% ownership. In a vacuum situation, the American would be the best play in the $9,000s, and it only amplifies that notion when he is 7-10% lower than his counterparts.

Other Targets: None. I won’t talk anyone out of Xander Schauffele ($9,500), but I prefer going Cantlay if adding from this range.

$8,000 Range

Jordan Spieth ($8,900) – Jordan Spieth is likely my favorite play on the entire board. The American ranks first in this field when it comes to par-four average, easy to hit fairways and strokes gained total on Bermuda and hasn’t finished outside of ninth place at this track in his four starts here since 2014.

Brooks Koepka ($8,500) – Brooks Koepka is a shot in the dark, but would it really shock anyone if he won the event at 5-10% ownership? He is GPP only, but the poor perception around him while playing non-majors does create a window of massive potential at only $8,500 and nine percent ownership.

Abraham Ancer ($8,100) – It has taken a few days for me to come around to Abraham Ancer, but there is a leverage window opening. I don’t think he is a better GPP target than the man beneath him in this article, but the fruitful $8,000 range provides a cornucopia of options to decide between, including placing multiple of these golfers into the same build.

Tony Finau ($8,000) – If not for Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau would be the poster child for the $8,000 range, but he adds to the extensive group of options that are in play. Finau has struggled some lately on par-fives, but the wide-open fairways should allow him to use his distance and not worry about some of the misses that have troubled him over the past few months.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Smith/Sungjae Im are high-owned choices that are worth considering.

$7,000 Range

Patrick Reed ($7,900), Harris English ($7,800), Jason Kokrak ($7,700), Marc Leishman ($7,500) – I listed the group together because there doesn’t seem to be a huge separation. You are going to have to sprinkle this collection into builds randomly, but I am not necessarily rushing to find myself overweight to any of them individually. English and Kokrak are projected to be the two that are lower-owned, so I’ll take them more than Reed and Leishman, who are projecting to be on the more popular side.

Additional Thoughts: The bottom drops off quickly

$6,000 Range

Phil Mickelson ($6,500) – Phil Mickelson is third in this field on slow Bermuda greens and also places at the same rank at longer courses that feature easy-to-hit fairways. We all know ‘Lefty’ is an absolute wizard with his short irons, and there is upside potential for him at a course that isn’t that different from a Champions Tour start. I like him at +200 to come top-20 on FanDuel, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him do better than that.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Garrick Higgo $6,400, Lucas Herbert $6,100

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/04

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

A smaller NBA slate today but there are plenty of good spots to attack, including short rotations and elite individual matchups. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks

The Pacers will have some of the most popular players on this NBA slate, and rightfully so. Missing plenty of players, including Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, TJ McConnell, Chris Duarte, and Goga Bitadze, we have attractive targets on this team at both ends of the pricing grid. Beginning with none other than fan favorite Domantas Sabonis, who is fresh off a 32/13/7 night where he saw a 26.4% usage rate in nearly 40 minutes, the Pacers main contributors on offense will be tasked with taking on a Knicks starting 5 that is reeling, to say the least. A primary value play on this slate will likely be starting point guard Duane Washington Jr. depending on what the model tells us. On the flip side of this game, there is no Knick priced higher than $6,300 on DK thanks to the absences of Julius Randle, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker, in addition to Nerlens Noel, and Mitchell Robinson (Q). Look for RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Alec Burks, and Immanuel Quickley to log heavy minutes for Tom Thibodeau tonight.

Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers

With the Sacramento Kings missing Richaun Holmes in the frontcourt, pending any model changes, Damian Jones will likely be the first player I insert into my NBA lineups tonight. In his first start of the season last game, Jones logged 28 minutes for the Kings, posting an 18/10 double-double on 70% shooting and now gets a Lakers frontcourt that rank 27th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint on the season, and are dead last in the absence of Anthony Davis. Moreover, the combination of De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are intriguing at reduced price points against a Lakers backcourt that ranks 29th in the NBA to opposing primary ball handlers.

With Sacramento ranking 8th in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating, their games will nearly always be a primary target of ours. Enter LeBron James, who sees his priced reduced on DK as well, despite having averaged 34.8/10.4/6 over his last eight games, where he’s logged nearly 37 MPG and sports a 32.9% usage rate. With few elite targets on this NBA slate, my lineups will likely begin with both Domantas Sabonis and LeBron James to not only solidify a floor, but to chase the two players who can break this thing wide open.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/03

DFSGhost 3 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As teams are getting healthier as the new year moves along, it will be crucial to remember that every night is not the same in NBA DFS. While it’s easy to look at how a player has been doing in their last few games, weeks, or overall trends, some may be true while other results are a product of their environments. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets (-7)

While most teams have a number of players listed as questionable due to conditioning having come out of health and safety protocols, we’ll be focusing on two relatively healthy teams in what can only be described as an inter-conference marquee matchups. On the Brooklyn side of the ball, it’s hard not to love James Harden with what he’s been doing on the court as of late: The Beard comes into tonight’s game sporting a 35.6% usage rate in his last four games, where he’s scored 30+ in every one of them and has three triple-doubles in these four appearances. Averaging 35.5/11/12 while also getting to the charity stripe nearly 14 times per contest, Harden is one of, if not the top option on this NBA slate. On the flip side of the ball, Ja Morant is certainly enticing given the ceiling that he offers, but if you play both he and Harden, you’re essentially eliminating the possibility of playing any other stud on the slate. Rather, Desmond Bane is someone in the mid range that in intriguing; sporting a 27.9% usage rate in his last four games, Bane has posted a remarkable 24.3 PPG on 46.8% shooting, including 41.2% from behind the arc, and 90% from the free throw line.

Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors (-9)

On the second night of a back-to-back, Jimmy Butler won’t be leaving the court. Many will shy away because of his lackluster performance last night versus the Kings, but Butler always shows up to games against the best of the best, and there is no team arguably better than the Warriors right now in the NBA. Butler dropped 21/6/5 despite only shooting 9-for-22, while dropping 37 points in his previous game despite only making 12 of 21 shots. He has one of the highest ceilings on this slate, and is one of my top targets for tournaments.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers (-3)

With Luke Kennard entering health and safety protocols, the Clippers will be awfully thin versus a Timberwolves team that will still be without D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns. In addition, Anthony Edwards played his first game back last night, so he is a potential rest candidate. Lots of value for this NBA slate can come from this game depending on the Edwards news, but for now, the Clippers that interest me are Eric Bledsoe, Terence Mann, Reggie Jackson, and Amir Coffey.

Honorable Mentions:

Nikola Jokic ($12,400 DK / $11,500 FD)
Trae Young ($11,100 DK / $9,800 FD)
Bradley Beal ($10,400 DK / $9,100 FD)
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,500 DK / $4,000 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 42, Packers: -12

With no Kirk Cousins for Minnesota, this game is likely to get out of hand in a hurry. I know we all joke (and rightfully so) about how bad he is in primetime games but to have (checks depth chart) Sean Mannion at the helm is a flat-out disaster and it reduces our range of possible outcomes by a wide margin and therefore our player pool. I am going nowhere near any of the Vikings sans Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. If they would allow it I would consider fading Vikings completely but that’s a different conversation altogether.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Captains:

Chalk: Davante Adams, $16,500: (18-20%)

Davante owns the Vikings, full stop. Just a month ago he turned 7 receptions into 115 yards and two touchdowns. In two games last year he had 209 yards and five tuddys. Rinse, repeat. So long as Aaron Rodgers is on the field Davante will play well against the Vikings. The only concern you should have is whether or not the Vikings can do anything offensively that will keep Green Bay throwing the ball.

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 : (9-11%)

Given the likely game script that we will be looking at tonight I think it is fair game to look at both Green Bay backs as core plays and while Jones is still dealing with his knee issue he should be pretty close to 100% so I think his volume will be back to normal in tonight’s contest and the Vikings are a sieve on the ground defensively on the best of days. Now, we are looking at a scenario where the Vikings’ defense will be exhausted due to not getting a breath while the offense goes on a long drive. That sort of things accumulates over a full football game so I think both backs could score at least once on the ground and will almost certainly break of some huge gains.

Contrarian #1: AJ Dillon, $7,800 : (7-9%)

While Jones is perfectly fine as a captain play I will have a little more Dillon personally. I already talked about how exhausted the Vikings defense will likely be. Now we are adding in frigid weather and a man who hits like a sledgehammer when he carries the ball. When the 3rd quarter rolls around Minnesota will not want to get in front of Dillon to tackle him and he could break off some huge chink plays in the tail end of this contest.

Contrarian #2: Aaron Rodgers $16,800: (10-12%)

I will not go crazy with A-rod tonight but I will not completely fade him as captain. We saw what happened last week when the Cowboys and Dak Prescott just kept their foot on the gas while embarrassing Washington leading to Dak’s best fantasy outing of the year. I could see the Packers do the same thing in a divisional matchup, at home, in what may be the last time Rodgers will suit up against the Vikings. This might be one of those games where due to short field situations, Rodgers only completes 24 passes for 208 yards but he throws 5 TD’s in the process.

Contrarian #3: Justin Jefferson, $16,200 : (11-13%)

At his price, with a complete unknown at quarterback, in a road game, in 10-degree weather I do not think Jefferson ends up anywhere near the 11% captain ownership that we are currently seeing. I think he settles into the 6-8% range which will lead me to have a share or two even though I am not so sure that even a man as talented as him can have a ceiling game with so many things stacked against him.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Flex plays:

Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams
Justin Jefferson
Dalvin Cook
AJ Dillon
Aaron Jones
K.J. Osborn
Packers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tyler Conklin
Sean Mannion
Alexander Mattison
Allen Lazard
Mason Crosby
Greg Joseph
Josiah Deguara
Vikings
Chris Herndon
Dede Westbrook
Kene Nwangwu
Equanimeous St. Brown
Marcedes Lewis
C.J. Ham
Wayne Gallman Jr.

Kickers and defenses:

Green Bay’s defense is firmly in play as a flex and even as a captain to a much smaller extent since I see them being around 10% rostered in captain tonight as the “contrarian” play that everyone flocks to in order to get different. If you do not want to spend much money on the Vikings this evening you could absolutely use kicker Greg Joseph and simply stack your Packers and call it a night as well.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 2)

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We’re back with a brand new Sunday Night Win Daily NHL Article! Hope you all had an amazing New Years Celebration! Tonight, we have a small 4-game slate. So, let’s get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 1/2 NHL slate, the slate begins at 3:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

1/2 NHL Stack Report

Colorado Avalanche 2
Burakovsky – Kadri – Compher (FanDuel: $21,100 | DraftKings: $19,600)
– Its really hard to ignore the offensive dominance Colorado has shown on ice this season, even through their injury troubles they have still found ways to score. Unsurprisingly, Colorado currently leads the league in goals per game at 4.22 and is coming into tonight with the highest implied total of the slate at 3.8. Although Gibson is a good goalie, it’s hard to combat the overall offensive firepower of the Avalanche. With the price of Colorado’s top line, even though they are an amazing option, its hard to comfortably stack more than two of them. So, Colorado’s second line works as a more affordable yet just as potent offensive option. The second line is led by Nazem Kadri who currently leads the Avalanche in points at 38, which also lands him at 7th in the league in points. Kadri is having a stellar season so far and pairing him up with affordable linemates is a solid way to go when approaching your builds for today’s slate.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Cale Makar (Bowen Byram works as a salary saver) (FD: $7,200 | DK: $7,500)
Calgary Flames 1
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Gaudreau (FanDuel: $21,700 | DraftKings: $14,100)
– The Flames top line has really been taking control over the entire Flames offensive output over the past couple of games. Last game alone, Gaudreau and Tkachuk put together 6 points. The top line also play together on Calgary’s top power play unit. Tonight they will be up against a tired Blackhawks team who was lit up for 6 goals against yesterday against the Nashville Predators. This also means that in all likelihood, the Blackhawks will be turning to current starting netminder Colin Delia, who has had a terrible season over his first two games as he currently sits at a 9.00 GAA with a .571 SV%. If the Blackhawks move away from Delia and start Soderblum instead, they are in even bigger trouble as Soderblum also let three goals in last night, including the first shot he faced. Calgary’s implied total is comfortably set at 3.1 and considering their good matchup tonight, I would recommend having some shares of Calgary’s top line in your builds tonight, especially if Soderblum starts for the Hawks.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Rasmus Andersson (FD: $4,200 | DK: $4,900)

Honorable Mention(s): NJD2 (Bratt-Hughes-Sharangovich), COL1 (Rantanen-MacKinnon-Laneskog), VGK2 (Smith-Karlsson-Marchessault) WPG1 (Stasny-Schiefele-Ehlers)

1/2 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

Jacob Markstrom (FD: $7,500 | DK: $7,900)
Darcy Kuemper (FD: $7,700 | DK: $8,100)
Honorable Mention(s): Ilya Samsonov

Worst (Goalies to Target)

Colin Delia (FD: $7,300 | DK: $7,200)

1/2 NHL Wild Card Targets

Yegor Sharangovich (FD: $4,100 | DK: $2,800)
– Sharangovich is in a great spot tonight alongside linemates Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. The trio have been performing extremely well as of late and Sharangovich is coming into tonight’s game with a three-game point streak, where he’s managed to put up two goals and two assists over that time. Sharangovich is also finding a lot of opportunities in front of the net as he has put 8 shots on goal over his last two games. The Devils are in tough tonight against the Washington Capitals but Sharangovich is a cheap option with lots of value and a high upside.
Honorable Mention(s): Paul Stastny, Mattias Janmark, Oliver Kylington, Henrik Borgstrom, Devon Toews, Sean Monahan

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Nazem Kadri

Winger – Johnny Gaudreau

Defenseman – Zach Whitecloud

Goalie – Jacob Markstrom

1/2 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Kadri – Gaudreau – Ovechkin – Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention(s): More or Less CGY@CHI Single Game

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3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2

We get another six games tonight after yet another chaos-filled slate last night. We had the trifecta of a non-start, a takeout with Christian Wood, and absurd chalk players going absolutely bananas. Heck, a player left the arena at halftime last night. Let’s see what this slate has in store for us in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2 and carve paths to green screens!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Teams to Target

Phoenix Suns

We’re going to tweak things just a bit and focus on teams in this article because one thing we’re learning is the field is not afraid to sack 3-4 players from teams that are missing key roster players. I can bet right now that Jalen Smith is going to be one of, if not the highest-rostered players on this slate. Both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee remain out along with Jae Crowder. Smith was a high pick for this regime and in just 26 minutes last game produced 29 DraftKings points as the Suns got smashed but Boston. He did foul five times but the matchup against the Hornets is way different than Robert “Time Lord” Williams.

When we take McGee, Ayton, and Jae Crowder off the floor for the Suns this year, most of the team is stagnant as far as usage and FPPM. In that sample, Smith is at 1.06 fantasy points per minute which is great in this environment. It’s been under that radar because Chris Paul’s teams typically are slower but the Suns are fifth in pace. With the Charlotte Hornets sitting third, this game is going to be a track meet. Cam Johnson is well in play here as well with a consistent 30 minutes lately and he should be popular as well. I would be surprised if this game doesn’t have the highest total and the spread opened at -2 for Phoenix, the smallest on the slate.

Run-Back Options – LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, TBD on Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington’s status

Miami Heat

If the Suns game doesn’t carry the highest total, there are two others that might, and one is the Heat taking on the Sacramento Kings. Miami is still rocking half a G-League team and the Kings are still the kings, which means bottom five defensively and top seven in pace. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin all played at least 35 minutes and Omer Yurtseven played right at 30 minutes. Kyle Guy was the only other player to play anything over 15 minutes, so the rotation couldn’t be much more condensed. Butler had one of the weirdest games last time because he scored 37 real points and combined for three boards and assists. Typically, his appeal is that he can get 5+ of the peripheral stats and 24+ points, so you better believe I’m willing to go back.

Lowry, Herro, and Yurtseven all got up there in salary and I can’t say it’s not deserved. However, they are at points where you need to think about it. We have a player that’s a lock we haven’t talked about yet and then we’ll still need to fit others. Just looking in the past week, Butler has 1.49 fantasy points per minute while Herro is at 1.09 and Yurtseven is 1.13. It certainly isn’t a large sample but it gives us an idea of how this team is functioning. Lowry’s usage was under 20%, so this might be the Butler/Yurtseven show for me and that’s it.

Run-Back Options – Might use Alex Len as a cheap center, the Kings are tough to love a run-back option. They are still priced like De’Aaron Fox is out and he’s been dreadful since his return.

Los Angeles Lakers

It’s the King’s world and we’re just chilling watching greatness. LeBron James is on some kind of tear in the past five games and racked up 78 DK in 29 minutes last game. He’s been playing center and just smashing for fantasy, and with Karl-Anthony Towns still out for Minnesota, his path at the center is even easier. In the past two weeks, Bron has had a 34.1% usage and 1.81 fantasy points per minute. He understands the assignment and the Lakers are not good enough to win without him at his best and Anthony Davis on the sidelines. I have no real interest in Russell Westbrook right now and you can play Carmelo Anthony but if his shot doesn’t fall, you’re in trouble.

This game might have the most appealing run-back options in Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverly, and Malik Beasley. With KAT and D’Angelo Russell out, they all have a usage of at least 17.7% (Beverly, Edwards is pushing 34%) and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.84. The Lakers have a bottom-10 defensive rating without AD on the floor and that’s going to lead to plenty of opportunity for this trio. My builds will start with Jalen Smith, LeBron James, and then one of Edwards or Butler.

Run-Backs – Edwards, Beverly, Beasley

Other Teams to Mention Players in the Pool

Magic – They have some questionable players, but Mo Wagner and Tim Frazier could be very strong values.

Pacers – Caris Levert, Torrey Craig

Mavericks – Luka Doncic should be back, but it’s unclear if he’ll face any restrictions. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful so Maxi Kleber will be a popular value at $3,700 on DK.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1

Happy New Year to all and let’s shoot to make this a great first day of the year for NBA action! We have five games on the main slate across the board tonight with half the teams on the slate in a back-to-back situation, so let’s keep that in mind. Having said that, let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1 and start carving out paths to green!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Clippers at Nets

The Clippers played last night so we’ll need to see who can even play and who may sit out this game. I would think the smart money could be on Serge Ibaka not playing since he had to play last night. The Clips can run a little smaller with the Nets and perhaps Marcus Morris sees a minutes limit. To be fair to Ibaka, he did only play 18 minutes so maybe he suits up. Provided Morris is not on a limit, he’s the preferred piece from the Lakers lineup since he’s still under $6,000 on DraftKings despite scoring at least 35 DraftKings points over the past five games. Morris only has about 52 minutes (more after last night) without Paul George and Ivica Zubac and Morris has a usage rate of 29.1% and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Reggie Jackson boasts the highest usage rate of 30.6, but being priced over $8,000 is tough to swallow. The Nets playing at the ninth-fastest pace is only going to help the Clippers side of things.

For the Nets, don’t look now but James Harden seems to be finding his form and he posted another huge triple-double with Kevin Durant in the lineup. All of the sudden, the usage and fantasy points per minute are looking similar between these two and it’s not as easy to just say play Durant anymore. What is really noticeable is one the past 10 games, Harden has double-digit free throws in five of them. He’s driving to the hoop almost four times more per game and that’s more what we know for Harden. Playing a perimeter defense of Jackson and Eric Bledsoe is a big boost, as is the fact the Clippers have no true center to help protect the paint. He may wind up being my main target on the slate as a whole, which is notable because Nikola Jokic plays tonight.

It’s a little tough to bank on minutes for the secondary gas as the Nets get players back from protocols and everyone gets their conditioning up, but Nic Claxton really has my interest. He’s under $5,000 and he played 33 minutes in the past game, and this is going to be a solid matchup. On the season, they are second in points allowed in the paint but without their top two centers, that changes things significantly. Claxton would have an outside shot at a double-double in this environment if he gets the minutes.

Bulls at Wizards

One of the first players I’m heading to on this slate is Coby White. He’s back from his injury and both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are out as of this writing. He’s playing big minutes with the starters and has posed 40+ DK in back-to-back games. He’s not super likely to score that many as without Ball and Caruso, White sits at 0.88 fantasy points per minute. However, White is still under $5,000 and Washington is down to 22nd in defensive rating on the season. Of the big three, Nikola Vucevic would lead my priority list as this is a cupcake matchup on the interior. Washington is 28th in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Vuc should totally dominate. A start of Harden/Claxton/White/Vuc leaves us with $4,850 for the other four spots on DK.

For the Washington side, Bradley Beal went nuts and played like last year’s version for one of the few times this season. I want to find a little bit extra to get to Harden, but Beal is well in play and without Spencer Dinwiddie, Beal has a 32% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute. For the secondary players, I still think someone like Corey Kispert is worth a look in GPP. He’s not likely to start but he played 28 minutes in the last game and shot just 2-10 from the field. Kyle Kuzma feels a little pricey and Daniel Gafford could be chalky again. His salary barely moved and he should have to play another 30+ minutes. You can also consider Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the last man in the lineup as playing 29 minutes in his first game back from protocols was encouraging.

Nuggets – It’s Nikola Jokic against the Rockets, which is a fantasy dream. The choice between Joker and Harden is difficult for me, and it might well be Jokic in cash and then Harden in GPP. We also need to see who’s available because Denver had their prior game postponed.

Pistons – I’m not super keen on going back to the well with Hamidou Diallo after his 60 DK outburst. However, both Luka Garza and Derrick Walton Jr. could provide some value to our lineups. Garza went for 6x last time out on 1-10 shooting and the Spurs have big men to keep him on the court. In the past week, Diallo and Shaddiq Bey have a usage rate of over 24% and FPPM of at least 1.06. Walton Jr. is at 0.69 which looks horrid but his true shooting is also 26.7% while Garza is 43.9% but has managed 0.90. If these guys hit some shots, they can crush value but remain volatile.

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

3 years ago 0 comments

English Premiere League

Saturday 1/1 EPL DFS Cheat Sheet

Richard Masana 3 years ago

written by Richard Masana

This article focuses on 1/1 EPL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format. The goal is to gain an edge on the field at large.

Saturday 1/1 EPL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Welcome back as we return for Matchweek Twenty-One/Thirty-Eight of the EPL season!

Unfortunately, DraftKings is running a pair of showdown slates instead of a two-game classic game. My recommendation this week is to play FanDuel only and I will not have showdown rankings.

Match Odds

Tottenham (-150) at Watford (+425)

West Ham (+135) at Crystal Palace (+210)

1/1 EPL FanDuel Rankings “Set pieces less important on FanDuel”

Forward/Midfield

Son Heung-Min – Tottenham – $20 “Set Pieces”
Harry Kane – Tottenham – $19
Michail Antonio – West Ham – $20
Jarred Bowen – West Ham – $18 “Share of Set Pieces”
Conor Gallagher – Crystal Palace – $18 “Set Pieces”
Lucas Moura – Tottenham – $16
Emmanuel Dennis – Watford – $19
Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace – $16
Pablo Fornals – West Ham – $15
Tomas Soucek – West Ham – $14

Defense

Sergio Regulion – Tottenham – $13
James Tomkins – Crystal Palace – $9
Arthur Masuaku – West Ham – $9
Eric Der – Tottenham – $10
Issa Diop – West Ham – $8

Goalies

Lukasz Fabianski – West Ham – $11
Hugo Lloris – Tottenham – $12

EPL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

Midfield

Defense

Goalies

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

DraftKings

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5

Hawks at Kings

Heat at Blazers

Raptors at Bucks

Teams to Monitor

Kapalua Plantation Course

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

$9,000 Range

Other Targets: None. I won’t talk anyone out of Xander Schauffele ($9,500), but I prefer going Cantlay if adding from this range.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Cameron Smith/Sungjae Im are high-owned choices that are worth considering.

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: The bottom drops off quickly

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Garrick Higgo $6,400, Lucas Herbert $6,100

Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks

Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets (-7)

Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors (-9)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers (-3)

Vegas Script: Total: 42, Packers: -12

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Captains:

Chalk: Davante Adams, $16,500: (18-20%)

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 : (9-11%)

Contrarian #1: AJ Dillon, $7,800 : (7-9%)

Contrarian #2: Aaron Rodgers $16,800: (10-12%)

Contrarian #3: Justin Jefferson, $16,200 : (11-13%)

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Flex plays:

Kickers and defenses:

1/2 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2

Teams to Target

Phoenix Suns

Miami Heat

Los Angeles Lakers

Other Teams to Mention Players in the Pool

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1

Clippers at Nets

Bulls at Wizards

Saturday 1/1 EPL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Match Odds

Tottenham (-150) at Watford (+425)

West Ham (+135) at Crystal Palace (+210)

1/1 EPL FanDuel Rankings “Set pieces less important on FanDuel”

Forward/Midfield

Defense

Goalies

EPL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

Midfield

Defense

Goalies

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