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NBAPremium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/18

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

We have a loaded NBA slate on tap for tonight considering only two teams were in action yesterday with March Madness beginning. There will be an overwhelming number of options to choose from, so it will be crucial to identify which games we need exposure to and reduce the size of the player pool. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks (+6)

One of the games that grades out the best in my model is the track meet between the Grizzlies and the Hawks. With John Collins (finger) already ruled out, and Danilo Gallinari (biceps) leaving Wednesday’s game only to not return, the Hawks can be awfully short tonight. Trae Young would be a staple point in our NBA lineups, pending that he is cleared to play; the top of the pricing grid is loaded with options that are all underpriced, but Young’s price decreased once again despite posting a 31.2/4/10.8 scoring line over his last five games through a 31.4% usage rate. Facing Ja Morant, who carries a 110.9 net defensive rating, is a matchup I want to exploit.

On the Memphis side of the ball, we’re sticking with primary ball handlers, as Ja Morant is slated to return to the lineup after missing Tuesday’s contest with a back injury. As much as I love Trae Young’s offensive game, he is simply atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, sporting a 117.5 net defensive rating, which is the second-worst amongst qualifying players in the NBA. Morant, who carries a 33.5% usage rate while posting a career-high 27.5/5.8/6.7 scoring line, is a contender to lead the slate in scoring.

New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (-3)

While this game will likely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, it shouldn’t. The Spurs sit 4th in the league in pace, while New Orleans has averaged nearly 120 PPG since acquiring CJ McCollum – make no mistake about it, this one will shoot out, and there’s a ton to love for tournaments.

Beginning with the Pelicans, McCollum draws a tough matchup versus the best perimeter defender in the NBA in Dejounte Murray (yes, I said what I said), so I’m likely to go elsewhere. In the absence of Brandon Ingram (hamstring), Devonte’ Graham has seen increased run in clutch minutes, but his questionable status for tonight makes things awfully interesting for this rotation. Going completely overlooked on this NBA slate is none other than Jonas Valanciunas, who gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs frontcourt that sits 28th in both scoring and rebounding to opposing true big men. The tag is a decent one to pay, but JoVal has legitimate 20-15 upside in this game.

You know the drill by now; the Spurs are on tonight’s NBA slate, meaning I have interest in Dejounte Murray. The Pelicans already struggled mightily versus primary ball handlers, and acquiring CJ McCollum only made it worse. Enter Murray, who won’t garner much attention at all near the top of the pricing grid, being sandwiched between the likes of Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Ja Morant, and Trae Young. Murray comes into this one with nine straight games of 20 or more points, increasing his volume drastically since the departure of Derrick White to Boston. The All-Star has also averaged 26.7/8.7/9.7 over that span through a 30.8% usage rate, while the Spurs are also just 1.5 games back of the Pelicans for the final spot in the Play-In round – just saying.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5)
  • Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets (+3)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

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NBAPremium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 03/18

DFSGhost
written by DFSGhost

We have a loaded NBA slate on tap for tonight considering only two teams were in action yesterday with March Madness beginning. There will be an overwhelming number of options to choose from, so it will be crucial to identify which games we need exposure to and reduce the size of the player pool. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks (+6)

One of the games that grades out the best in my model is the track meet between the Grizzlies and the Hawks. With John Collins (finger) already ruled out, and Danilo Gallinari (biceps) leaving Wednesday’s game only to not return, the Hawks can be awfully short tonight. Trae Young would be a staple point in our NBA lineups, pending that he is cleared to play; the top of the pricing grid is loaded with options that are all underpriced, but Young’s price decreased once again despite posting a 31.2/4/10.8 scoring line over his last five games through a 31.4% usage rate. Facing Ja Morant, who carries a 110.9 net defensive rating, is a matchup I want to exploit.

On the Memphis side of the ball, we’re sticking with primary ball handlers, as Ja Morant is slated to return to the lineup after missing Tuesday’s contest with a back injury. As much as I love Trae Young’s offensive game, he is simply atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, sporting a 117.5 net defensive rating, which is the second-worst amongst qualifying players in the NBA. Morant, who carries a 33.5% usage rate while posting a career-high 27.5/5.8/6.7 scoring line, is a contender to lead the slate in scoring.

New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (-3)

While this game will likely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, it shouldn’t. The Spurs sit 4th in the league in pace, while New Orleans has averaged nearly 120 PPG since acquiring CJ McCollum – make no mistake about it, this one will shoot out, and there’s a ton to love for tournaments.

Beginning with the Pelicans, McCollum draws a tough matchup versus the best perimeter defender in the NBA in Dejounte Murray (yes, I said what I said), so I’m likely to go elsewhere. In the absence of Brandon Ingram (hamstring), Devonte’ Graham has seen increased run in clutch minutes, but his questionable status for tonight makes things awfully interesting for this rotation. Going completely overlooked on this NBA slate is none other than Jonas Valanciunas, who gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs frontcourt that sits 28th in both scoring and rebounding to opposing true big men. The tag is a decent one to pay, but JoVal has legitimate 20-15 upside in this game.

You know the drill by now; the Spurs are on tonight’s NBA slate, meaning I have interest in Dejounte Murray. The Pelicans already struggled mightily versus primary ball handlers, and acquiring CJ McCollum only made it worse. Enter Murray, who won’t garner much attention at all near the top of the pricing grid, being sandwiched between the likes of Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Ja Morant, and Trae Young. Murray comes into this one with nine straight games of 20 or more points, increasing his volume drastically since the departure of Derrick White to Boston. The All-Star has also averaged 26.7/8.7/9.7 over that span through a 30.8% usage rate, while the Spurs are also just 1.5 games back of the Pelicans for the final spot in the Play-In round – just saying.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5)
  • Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets (+3)

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

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NHL

NHL DFS Friday Night Forecheck for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 18)

allenjesse24@yahoo.com
written by allenjesse24@yahoo.com

For tonight’s Friday Night Forecheck, we have six games on the slate. Here’s a fun fact about this slate: half of the teams tonight are on the second half of a back to back. Let’s find the best NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Good luck!

Goalies

Jacob Markstrom – Calgary Flames: The Flames will be hosting the Buffalo Sabres tonight, which should be a great matchup for them. The Sabres are not giving up a ton, and have been playing competitive enough to make this a viable play. Markstrom should be a top goalie on the night, and we should be able to target him for cash games.

Darcy Kuemper – Colorado Avalanche: Even though Kuemper has had an up and down season, he should be able to take care of business tonight against the Sharks. The Sharks have only been scoring 2.2 goals per game over their last five home games. Because of that, we should feel pretty comfortable with Darcy in net.

Sergei Bobrovsky/Spencer Knight – Florida Panthers: The Panthers head to Anaheim tonight to take on the struggling Ducks. Because they are on a back to back, we may not know who will start for them until warmups. However, since the Ducks have been struggling to score lately, we can play either of these guys tonight and feel pretty good about it. Keep in mind, Knight is a little riskier than Bob, but still a good play.

High Risk GPP Goalie Pick – Antti Raanta – Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes play host to the Capitals tonight in what should be a very good Eastern Conference battle. This game should be a high event game that produces a lot of shots and chances. Because of those reasons, we can use Raanta as a GPP play. He may not be the best goalie on the slate, numbers wise, but he should face a lot of shots. With that, he also gets the Caps on the second leg of a traveling back to back. The upside here is interesting for a GPP play.

Lines to Build Around

These NHL DFS lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Florida Panthers Power Play – Aleksander Barkov/Sam Reinhart/Jonathan Huberdeau/Anthony Duclair/Aaron Ekblad: Go figure that this is a top play tonight, right? The Cats have been flying high this season, and there is no reason it will slow down tonight. The Panthers head to Anaheim to take on the Ducks and John Gibson, who has really let the wheels fall off this season. We can expect a lot of scoring from the Panthers tonight, which is why we want to target the power play. Doing so will get you access to the top two lines, who are both in prime spots.

Calgary Flames 1 – Elias Lindholm/Johnny Gaudreau/Matthew Tkachuk/Rasmus Andersson: As we mentioned above, the Flames host the Sabres tonight. On home ice, over their last five games, the Flames have been scoring 4 goals per game. The Sabres, on the other hand, have been giving up 4.2 goals per game over their last five road games. This seems like a recipe for success. We also know that the goalie situation is very shaky in Buffalo, so it is all systems go for us to play Calgary tonight. You can also consider the depth lines, but keep in mind, Jarnkrok may make his Flames debut. As a result, the Flames may change up the lines a little bit, so be sure to keep an eye on the news.

High Risk Lines

These are NHL DFS plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Boston Bruins 1 – Erik Haula/Taylor Hall/David Pastrnak/Charlie McAvoy: The Bruins’ top line is actually their second line from before Bergeron went out. That’s ok, though, because this line is in a great spot. They head to Winnipeg tonight to take on the Jets and Hellebuyck, who has been very inconsistent this year. Because this game has a potential to be higher scoring, we can definitely give this line a look. If Bergeron should come back, you can definitely pivot back to the Marchand/Bergeron/Debrusk line.

Carolina Hurricanes 3 – Jordan Staal/Nino Niederreiter/Jesper Fast: The third line for the Canes hard matches the opposing top line when they are on home ice. In other words, the matching will set this line up for a matchup against the Ovechkin line. While they are a defensive line, the Staal line still generates a decent number of high danger chances. The Washington top line is talented, but they also give up a decent number of high danger chances, so this line has a good chance to get on the board tonight.

Colorado Avalanche 1 – Nathan MacKinnon/Valeri Nichushkin/Mikko Rantanen/Cale Makar: The top line for the Avalanche is almost always in play. The Avs are in a good spot tonight against Adin Hill and the Sharks. This line should see the top line in a very nice matchup.

Ottawa Senators 2 – Nick Paul/Connor Brown/Alex Formenton: The second line for Ottawa is not one that you think of when you think of high powered offense. However, the numbers for this line look very good. They are worth a look in deeper GPP contests.

NHL DFS Honorable Mentions: WPG2, CARPP, WSH1, WSH3, SJSPP, PHI1, OTT1, BUF1

Value Options – DraftKings

Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on DraftKings. Be sure to stack!

Center: Jordan Staal ($3000) – Carolina Hurricanes

Wing: Maxim Mamin ($2500) – Florida Panthers

Defense: Nikita Zaitsev ($3100) – Ottawa Senators

Value Options – FanDuel

Consider these NHL DFS plays to help save you some salary in your lineups on FanDuel. Be sure to stack!

Center: Erik Haula ($3900) – Boston Bruins

Wing: Nino Niederreiter ($4200) – Carolina Hurricanes

Defense: Brandon Montour ($4000) – Florida Panthers

Cash Considerations – DraftKings and FanDuel

Consider these NHL DFS plays for your cash lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Cash lineups do not need to be stacked, and it is recommended to play no more than two players from a given team.

Center: Elias Lindholm – Calgary Flames

Wing: Jonathan Huberdeau – Florida Panthers

Defense: Cale Makar – Colorado Avalanche

Goalie: Jacob Markstrom – Calgary Flames

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and any advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

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Daily Fantasy Sports

League Of Legends Tower Dive 3/18/22

Rich Block
written by Rich Block


Hello Win Daily team. My name is Rich Block or Raha on Discord. I will be a new League of Legends content writer for you all so thank you for having me on board. We cover both DraftKings and FanDuel.


Tomorrow, we have a four-game slate featuring games between T1 versus LSB, LGD versus TES,, Geng versus KT and finally, the last game of the night is IG versus Wb. So With no further hesitation let me give you my thoughts on each of the four games.

League of Legends Game One: “T1 -1600 versus LSB +800”

For the first match of the morning, we have T1 taking on LSB.  T1 is heavily favored for a few very good reasons, LSB is bringing out their challenge league roster and T1 is not afraid to run up the score on the challenger teams as they showed last game. This match should be a nice and bloody sweep by T1 and I think every single starter on their roster is firmly in play.

League of Legends Game Two: “LGD +400 versus TES -700”

This is another match that should be a bloody sweep. TES wins this game and there will be blood. LGD averages 16 deaths per game and they like to fight. I will be honest there is not much more to say about this match. TES just like T1 would make a great big stack and anybody on their starting roster you can play.

League of Legends Game Three “GenG -400 versus KT +260”

This match I think can go either way. Geng does hold advantages in most statistical categories but KT did sweep Geng earlier in the season and KT has been playing better with Vicla at mid. Geng is already locked into their playoff spot so they might experiment with their player pool where KT needs this win to make the playoffs. I do think Geng wins this tow to one behind Peanut 6,800, Chovy 7,600, and Ruler 7,400. If you do want to roster KT players Aiming at 7,200, Cuzz at 5,800, and Vicla at 6,400 stand out to me.

League of Legends Game Four “IG +250 versus WBG -350”

This is another match I can see going either way but I think WBG wins this one two to one. IG Is a team that likes to fight and tends to die as they are averaging over 15 deaths a game. But IG has been a team that can surprise you and if they can stack the drakes and get the late game buffs they can win this as they do have the statistical advantage when it comes to drakes. But as I said I do think WBG wins this one as they are just more talented all around and are priced perfectly for a small stack. SofM 6,400, ON 5,00, and WBG team spot are a few good spots to target.

Those are my thoughts on tomorrow’s 4 game slate.  My favorites in order are T1/TES, Geng and WBG


Thank you for reading and good luck tomorrow everybody. Be sure to be on the lookout for more to come. You can follow all of our E-Sports at https://windailysports.com/esports/



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NHLPremium

NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 17)

Richard Masana
written by Richard Masana

This article focuses on 3/17 NHL Picks for both DraftKings Sportsbook and DraftKings Daily Fantasy for tonight’s slate.

3/17 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) – 6 Projected Goal Total

New York Islanders (+120) at New York Rangers (-140) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

Nashville Predators (-175) at Philadelphia Flyers (+150) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Dallas Stars (-205) at Montreal Canadiens (+175) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Washington Capitals (-200) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+170) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Detroit Red Wings (+165) at Vancouver Canucks (-205) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Buffalo Sabres (+210) at Edmonton Oilers (-265) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) at St. Louis Blues (-110) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Florida Panthers (-130) at Vegas Golden Knights (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

San Jose Sharks (+150) at Los Angeles Kings (-170) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total

3/17 NHL Favorite Lines Per Dollar

Top Line – Edmonton One “Evander Kane, Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto”

Edmonton stands out as the biggest money line favorite at -265, in one of three 6.5 total games on this ten-game slate. Therefore, it may come as no surprise they are the starting point/chalk on tonight’s slate. With three skaters on the Oilers’ top power-play unit, the top line makes the most sense. If you wanted to run a two-man stack instead, Evander Kane at $6,900 would be the man to leave out. Kailer Yamamoto is a steal at $3,600 with goals in three straight games.

At only in a five-way tie for 16th in terms of goals created by the line over their last ten games, I think that Edmonton One can improve on that total tonight.

Secondary Line – Washington One “Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary”

Recently the Capitals’ top line has gone relatively cold by their standards. However, as illustrated below “with Wilson instead of Sheary” this has been one of the top lines in the NHL over the course of the season.

Tonight, Washington has a terrific matchup as a -200 favorite in a 6.5 total game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. With salary restraints, you cannot combine them in full with Edmonton One. However, I do expect Ovi to be popular and the full line a viable pivot off of chalkier Edmonton, not that ownership will matter much at all on a ten-game slate.

3/17 NHL Honorable Mention: Carolina Three “Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Jesper Fast”

They might not see as much ice time as one would wish, but as you can see from the graphic above, have been impressive all season. Furthermore, as you can see below, they have nine goals over their last ten games, good for a tie for fourth with lines like Calgary and Chicago One. Considering their ultra-cheap prices ($2,500 for Fast, $3,400 for Niederreiter, and $3,100 for Staal) they make for a nice line to use as a pairing if mass multiple entering and looking to go stars and scrubs in a few. You certainly don’t need to play all three skaters either. More on the Hurricanes specific matchup and the game itself below under Best Bet.

Top Defender

Roman Josi – Nashville Predators – $8,200 – He’s expensive so won’t fit into many builds but with some of the monster games he’s been having lately, it’s hard not to rank him first. If building in contrarian fashion with cheap attackers, I certainly prefer him to the guys in the $6,000 and above range.

Top Goalie

Igor Shesterkin – New York Rangers – $7,900 – This one pains me personally but in a 5.5 total game, hosting the Islanders, Shesterkin makes a lot of sense. He is coming off back-to-back poor games but still has stellar numbers on the season with a 2.07 GAA and .938 sv %. This, unfortunately, feels like a get-right spot for him, as he looks to grab the win for a Rangers team heading in a different direction this season than the Islanders.

3/17 NHL Best Bet

Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline (-105) DraftKings – It is already confirmed that Erik Kallgren will be in the net again for the Leafs. He was fantastic his first time out but unless he catches lightning in a bottle, he has allowed 3.02 GAA with a .904 save % across 26 games in the AHL this season. Furthermore, Auston Matthews remains suspended for Toronto. That’s enough for me in an even-money game featuring a strong Carolina team.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

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NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 16)

Allan Fabrykant
written by Allan Fabrykant

Hello everyone and welcome to the newest edition of WinDaily’s Wednesday Night Between the Benches Article. We have a great slate tonight with, in my opinion, two clear top options! For tonight’s 3/16 NHL slate, the first puck drops at 7:30 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!

3/16 NHL Stack Report

1. Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov (FanDuel: $23,500 | DraftKings: $18,000)
– Wow, we are starting off with a banger. Despite the fact that FanDuel has these three all listed as Wingers, Stamkos will be getting the nod as top-line centre tonight as Point moves down to the second in favour of Alex Killorn. We could easily mention the stark contrasts between the two teams in this matchup and we could rehash Seattle’s goaltending issues, despite the fact that they do not allow a lot of shots on goal, to begin with. But for this matchup, I think it’s safe to say that Seattle has had one of the worst seasons out of any team this year as they sit near the bottom in both offensive and defensive categories and they are set to run directly into the train that is the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champs in the Tampa Bay lightning. (Defensively, the Kraken sit third last in goals for [2.57] and fourth last in goals against [3.59]) Vegas tends to agree, they have set Tampa’s implied total at 3.9 along with making them a 3 to 1 favourite to win tonight. Tampa is up here for a reason and with Killorn’s value, I really like a two-man from this line with Killorn alongside either Kucherov or Sergachev.
Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Mikhail Sergachev (FD: $5,200 | DK: $4,900)

2. Calgary Flames 1
M.Tkachuk – Lindholm – Gaudreau (FanDuel: $24,700 | DraftKings: $19,700)
– Here we have the biggest favourites of the slate with the highest implied total. Calgary has been on a monstrous pace as of late winning four of their last six games against some formidable opposition such as the Avalanche, Oilers and Lightning. The Flames top line in particular has been responsible for a significant chunk of Calgary’s offensive output that has seen them sit in 6th in the entire league in goals. Johnny Gaudreau has been leading the pack with a strong season with 78 points in just 59 games, placing him fourth in the league in points. I expect him to make strong strides towards the top of that pack tonight against the Devils. The Devils goaltending has been suspect at best and Jon Gilles in particular has had a pretty abysmal season with a 3-9-1 record along with a 3.33 GAA and a save percentage below .900. I would strongly recommend having some exposure to Calgary in your lineups tonight.

Ideal Defensive Partner(s): Rasmus Andersson (FD: $6,000 | DK: $4,300)

Honorable Mentions in order: NJD1 (Sharangovich-Hughes-Mercer), BOS2 (Pastrnak – Haula – Hall)

BOOKIE BET OF THE NIGHT: UNDER 6 BOS/MIN

The logic behind this decision is that out of the two teams Boston is very defensively sound and has done a lot to keep the puck out of their net, but they haven’t been scoring as much as the season progressed. Despite being on a three-game winning streak. The Bruins have only managed to crack 5 goals (between both teams) in a game once over their last four games. Even though there are a lot of top players in this matchup I don’t foresee a lot of goals.

Honorable Mention(s): CBJ +120 on the Moneyline

3/16 NHL Goalie Tracker

Best (Goalies to Roster)

  1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (FD: $8,400 | DK: $8,400)
  2. Jacob Markstrom (FD: $8,200 | DK: $8,500)
    Honorable Mention(s): Elvis Merzlikins

Worst (Goalies to Target)

  1. Philipp Grubauer (FD: $7,100 | DK: $7,000)
    Honorable Mention(s): Anton Forsberg, Jon Gilles

3/16 NHL Wild Card Targets

Connor Brown (FD: $5,300 | DK: $4,100) 
– Connor has been on quite the run as of late with four points over his last four games. He has been incredibly consistent in the points department, especially for a player at his price. Brown has also been good for at least two shots on goal per game if not more and has registered the odd blocked shot. Brown is an uncharacteristic Wild Card as he has a very safe floor but at his price, it’s hard to not be at least somewhat interested in him on tonight’s shortened slate.
Honorable Mention(s): Tyler Toffoli, Kevin Fiala-Matthew Boldy, Jesper Bratt, Josh Norris, Oliver Bjorkstrand

Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)

Centre – Elias Lindholm

Winger – Nikita Kucherov

Defence – Mikhail Sergachev

Goalie – Jacob Markstrom

3/16 NHL Monkey Knife Fight NHL Prop Picks – Win With These Picks Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

All Day Putting Up Points

Honorable Mention: All Day Rapidfire 2/2

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PGAPremium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com
written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Do you want more golf coverage from me this week? Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,800) – I loved how Justin Thomas looked at the Players Championship, but man, what a brutal four rounds he had to encounter. I think we saw some of that letdown take place on Monday, and for that reason, I am going to go with Viktor Hovland as my top man on the board for the Valspar Championship. Hovland has posted three top-nine finishes in a row and ranks number one in this field for total driving.

Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – If Justin Thomas got the worst of the weather draw, Collin Morikawa also did by playing next to him over the opening two days. Morikawa couldn’t handle things quite as pristinely as Thomas did, missing the cut in a disappointing fashion, but the upside remains intact for one of the best ball-strikers in the world.

Other Consideration – I will be underweight to the field on Dustin Johnson.

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – Your weekly reminder that not all chalk is a trap. Louis Oosthuizen checks just about all the boxes that you would be hoping to see on a golfer that can get across the finish line, and after a ton of close calls on the PGA Tour over the years, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends his winless drought on America soi at the Valspar.

Other Targets: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800), Shane Lowry ($9,700), Sam Burns ($9,600), Jason Kokrak ($9,200) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) are all in play. The margins are very thin between the group, but I likely would power rank them Hatton, Lowry, Fitzpatrick, Burns and Kokrak.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Webb Simpson can help open up builds for you if you find yourself getting caught in all the same chalk traps. While I wouldn’t recommend going bullishly overweight, you can get to 3-4x the field by using him in 15% of lineups.

Other Thoughts: Alex Noren ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,000)

$7,000 Range

I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900) – Number one ranked golfer in this field in scrambling and sand save percentage.

Aaron Wise ($7,700) – Wise is the only golfer in the $7,000 range that ranks inside the top-15 players for upside.

Mito Pereira ($7,200) – I don’t like this ownership and will likely pivot elsewhere if these trends continue, but Mito Pereira has been stellar with his ball-striking over the past three events, gaining 4.3 shots to the field per start.

Adam Svensson ($7,200) – Adam Svensson is a pristine ball-striker that excels from 150 yards and beyond. His combination of par-five scoring and GIR percentage makes him a value in most markets, and I do want to note for the last time that he was stolen from me during the PGA Draftcast. My lawyer (Sia) is on the case.

Joel Dahmen ($7,100) – These less-than-driver courses are always where Joel Dahmen finds his best success. Thirteenth in my model for weighted scrambling.

Danny Willet ($7,100) – My two favorite longshot options in the $7,000 range that will be under five percent owned are Danny Willet ($7,100) and Adam Svensson ($7,200). Willet is a top-20 par-five scorer in the field and also ranks inside the top-five for short game metrics.

Taylor Moore ($7,000) – If you are trying to get cute on a play that nobody will see coming, Taylor Moore has a good combination of weighted proximity and overall tee-to-green data to cause some damage at two percent ownership.

Additional Thoughts: There are a handful of additional spots to look into for the week. You can use my model to see some of the other golfers that are showing as a value.

$6,000 Range

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Pat Perez ($6,900), J.J. Spaun ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Martin Kaymer ($6,800), Joseph Bramlett ($6,700), Troy Merritt ($6,600), Hank Lebioda ($6,600), Kramer Hickok ($6,500), Trey Mullinax ($6,400). That gives you a handful of dart throws to go along with some more popular choices.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

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NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

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NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

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NBAPremium

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16

We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Hawks at Hornets 

Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game. 

Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game. 

Mavericks at Nets 

Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely. 

Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well. 

Nuggets at Wizards 

Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players. 

Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day. 

Honorable Mention 

Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well. 

Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace. 

Teams To Monitor 

Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation. 

Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits. 

Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority. 

You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life

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