There are nine games in front of us tonight and we have a bunch of options with a key name already being ruled out. For the first time in a while, we should know the status of Nuggets star Nikola Jokic because he plays at 7:30. Let’s talk about all of that and more in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/29 so we can find our path to green screens! It’s Mojito Monday – Let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Dejounte Murray ($9,600/$10,000 FD)
I mean, if these sites aren’t going to make Murray more expensive, then I’ll just continue to play him. He might be slightly more appealing on DK simply because you get bonuses for double and triple-doubles, and that’s what Murray is every single game. He is a threat to triple-double and he’s yet to cross the $10,000 barrier on DraftKings. Washington is better this year at 11th in defensive rating but it just doesn’t matter. Murray has a 26.2% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute and he’s gone for 55+ in three of his last four games. Washington is 27th in points allowed in the paint and Murray drives at the ninth-highest rate. He does pass 48.8% of the time but maybe he’s a touch more selfish with less resistance inside tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 DK/$8,200 FD)
SGA came back from missing a couple of games last time and played 34 minutes, a good sign that the ankle is not an issue. We just saw on Saturday that when the Rockets can be competitive in a game, they can be a fantasy goldmine and this version of the Thunder likely don’t blow many teams out of the water. SGA has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute. His shooting can be iffy on a game-to-game basis so there’s not a lot of safety built-in. One aspect that I do love though is he is second in points per game in isolation at 7.2 (James Harden leads at 7.5). The Rockets are dead last in points per game allowed to isolation shooters and SGA is only shooting 39.8% this year compared to 43.2% last year, so there is room for improvement.
Alex Caruso ($5,300 DK/$5,700)
This might be the first time Caruso has been featured but we always want to play guys against the Hornets. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace and Charlotte pushes the pace like few others. He is not going to be a usage monster at just 13% but he grinds out 0.83 fantasy points per minute and he plays 3-32 minutes per game. The Hornets are also fifth in turnovers and Caruso is second in steals per game and he’s 0.1 from being tied for the lead. It’s not hard to see him rack up 35 fantasy points and he’s at a reasonable price.
Honorable Mention
Malcolm Brogdon
Kevin Porter Jr.
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 DK/$8,000 FD)
As of now, my plan is not to spend at shooting guard because I want to spend a hefty amount on center (more on that in a bit). If you are climbing the ladder, Mitchell fits the bill against the Blazers team that is 28th in defensive rating despite being just 16th in pace. Mitchell is coming off a game where he flashed ceiling in just 27 minutes and he has a 33.3% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Portland is third in points allowed to the pick-and-roll ball-handler, but Mitchell is third in points scored in that play type. Something has to give and Mitchell is eighth in the frequency of that play so I’ll side with an underpriced elite scorer.
Jalen Suggs ($5,300 DK/$5,800 FD)
Point guard Cole Anthony continues to miss time with an ankle injury and Suggs has a 27.1% usage rate when he’s off the floor, which leads the Magic by roughly 6%. He also has 0.87 fantasy points per minute on just a 42.4% true shooting rate and Philly’s perimeter defense continues to not be that great without Ben Simmons. Suggs has only been driving to the basket 11 times per game since Anthony has been out, which is a good thing since Joel Embiid is back for the Sixers. They are also allowing the six-highest FG% from 3-point distance, so this is a spot where the shooting can get better for Suggs.
Caris LeVert ($5,300 DK/$5,600 FD)
I want to be crystal clear that this would be very much GPP only and there is a chance that LeVert sits on a back-to-back. If he does, Brogdon would be far more appealing. The Pacers are trying to figure out exactly what they are. Their pieces aren’t fitting well yet as they sit 13th in the East. Part of it might be they have too many solid to good players, and it’s just too much of a jumble. At any rate, LeVert is the leader in usage on the season at 28.3% and he’s rocking a 46.8% true shooting rate. To put that in context, his career number is over 52% so there has to be a positive regression at some point. Last slate, he was about 1% owned, and when he shouldn’t be this cheap, to quote Ghost. Minnesota is 11th in pace and their defensive rating continues to slip. Any pretend defensive presence they had is gone with Patrick Beverly on the sideline and this is a calculated risk to take in 3-max or MME formats.
Honorable Mention
Anthony Edwards
Darius Garland
Value Spot
Small Forward
Paul George ($10,200 DK/$9,200 FD)
Rostering PG13 lately has been a little bit of an adventure, but he’s not shooting all that well lately. That’s bound to change and he can easily go for 55+ on both sites, given his 34.2% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. He’s 11th in points scored as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll set and New Orleans is dead last in points allowed per game. Teams with a bottom-five defensive rating won’t likely continue to hold the opposition to a 35.8% field goal rate in isolation, where George is also top 12. Some may point to the recent game against the Pelicans and say PG stunk, but are you willing to bet he goes 8-26 from the floor again, including 3-14 from deep? I’m not. New Orleans is 27th in 3-point FG% allowed on top of everything else.
Brandon Ingram ($7,500 DK/$7,400 FD)
For someone that has a 30.7% usage rate, things haven’t been clicking for Ingram as far as fantasy goes lately. This guy was taking all sorts of shots last year when he had Zion Williamson bulldozing teams for 30 points a game in the paint, but now he’s gun-shy. We’re going to hit a game that he shoots 20-25 times and a lot of them go in and this could be it. The Clippers have been burned by primary ball handlers for a while, dating back to last year. They are eighth in pace and second in defensive rating, but Ingram is a very talented scorer with a usage rate over 30%. It’s likely only a GPP play but he’s almost always over $8,000 on both sites. Note that Ingram is only SG-eligible on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention
Will Barton (only If Jokic is out)
Lauri Markkanen
Value Spot
Power Forward
Evan Mobley ($6,700 DK/$7,400 FD)
I’m not exactly sure why DK lowered Mobley’s salary but I’ll happily take it. He came back from an elbow injury and played 33 minutes without shooting all that well and put up over 37 DK points. Dallas (namely Kristaps Porzingis who has the defensive mobility of a coffee table) is going to struggle with the tandem of Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavaliers are also likely going to be short-handed so Mobley should be around 35 minutes again and Mobley has 1.09 fantasy points per minute with a 21.8% usage rate. Dallas is 22nd in points allowed in the paint and both Allen and Mobley are inside the top 10 in points scored from cutting to the basket.
P.J. Washington ($5,100 DK/$4,900 FD)
Washington will draw another start with Mason Plumlee out with an injury and he’s played 24 and 35 minutes these past two games with Plumlee missing. I think he’s going to be a key part of my lineups tonight because he’s too cheap on both sites for 1.04 fantasy points per minute and an 18.1% usage when Plumlee is out. He had 6.6 paint touches and Washington has had four per game, while Chicago allows the most points in the paint in the league. On FD, he’s clutch at $4,900 because it can allow me to build with two centers, which I’m very likely to do.
Honorable Mention
Tobias Harris
Wendell Carter Jr. (he may be chalky but I’m not a fan of his matchup against Joel Embiid at all)
Value Spot
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,500 DK/$10,100 FD)
Truth be told, I’d rather play Jokic if he’s active. Don’t forget, he averages about 2.00 fantasy points per minute for the Nuggets with the players that they are missing off the floor. However, he’s missed more time than we thought so I can’t bank on him being in. For Embiid, I guess he didn’t feel the after-effects of Covid as he played 42 minutes in his first game back. Keep that in mind when you see the 70 DK points. It also worries me slightly about how he recovers from that workload. However, there is little resistance in the interior for the Magic. He leads in points scored from post-ups and the Magic are 20th in points per possession against that play type. He’s at 1.41 fantasy points per minute this year so the ceiling is there but we’ll see what the options are.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,300 DK/$7,600 FD)
We’ve been attacking Charlotte with big men all year and Vucevic is just next in line. Yes, he’s the clear third option in Chicago behind DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine (fine options but not a priority to me) but Vucevic is almost tied for the highest fantasy points per minute on the team at 1.14. DeRozan is only at 1.16 and while Vucevic only has 5.2 paint touches per game, the Hornets just get mashed by big men. They are 24th in points allowed in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint and this is a sure double-double spot and then some for Vuc. He is 11th in rebounding chances per game and is in line for a big night.
Christian Wood ($8,200 DK/$7,400 FD)
It had been a very flighty stretch for Wood lately, in part just because he can be inconsistent and in part because of a blowout. This is a phenomenal spot because the Thunder aren’t that good and they can’t guard the paint. They’re dead last in rebounds in the paint allowed and 16th in paint points, and Wood has 13 paint touches this past game. That’s over double his 5.8 per game on the season and hopefully kind of reminded him of what he can be capable of. It also helps Jalen Green is out and he sees a bump in usage rate by 2.9% up to 25.3% and he’s at 1.34 fantasy points per minute. On FD, playing Wood, Vuc, and Washington leaves you over $6,800 per spot the rest of the way.
Honorable Mention
Domantas Sabonis
Jarret Allen (if not playing Mobley)
Jakob Poeltl
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
This one just feels like a game where a single person will solo takedown the $11 MME contest. We have tons of questionable guys who are expected to play in what Vegas is implying is essentially a pickem game. Then to make it even more interesting, both of these teams’ offenses can and have crapped the bed in contests where the should score like tonight.
To the surprise of nobody Lamar is the lock down #1 chalk by a wide margin being projected at over 20% while nobody else is over 10%. I’m going to frame it like this. Will he be the likely top scoring option on the day? Absolutely. Will you take down a showdown contest by yourself with him as your captain? No. If over 20% of the field is on one player as captain you need to build some lineups where you pivot away from him if you to have an opportunity for a big night. Don’t full fade, but do go underweight in one specific scenario. The leverage is far to high for you to not do it.
I know that Hunt is expected to return after missing the last month with a calf injury but my expectation is that Hunt will be extremely limited and he and D’Ernest Johnson will split the backup duties tonight. I maintain that Chubb is one of the top 3 running backs in the NFL and would have stat lines similar to a healthy Dalvin Cook if he did not have a rushing title winner as his backup. With Kyrie Irving OBJ now in LA the Browns have finally begun to do what they should have been doing since week one, feed their running backs. In the last 2 games Chubb is averaging 7.41 YPC and getting two catches a game and 3 total TD’s. The man is a beast and we can get him at less that half the ownership with similar upside to Lamar. He is the de facto #1 captain for me based on that.
Depending on how people treat his thigh injury when building their lineups Hollywood may find himself closer to 5% than 8% when it is all said and done. It is clear that he is Lamar’s number one receiver and he has upside for days. For me he is one of those players that I am either going to play as the captain or not at all. He has had a few different games this season where he has dropped wide open touchdowns and multiple ones at that. He is either scoring 20 or more DK points or under 10. There is no in between. In the lineups where you do not put him as a captain I recommend flexing the guy below instead.
It took a little time to get Andrews going but in his last 4 weeks he has gotten no less that 7 targets in the last 4 weeks and in the lineups as I said above where I want to play the Hollywood Brown has the drops narrative Mark Andrews makes the most sense. When the Ravens get down into the red zone I am expecting Jackson to target Andrews over Brown with Cleveland’s secondary and defense as a whole being back to 100%. Denzel Ward should be able to keep Hollywood covered up in those scenarios where he is unable to utilize his straight line speed.
Jarvis Landry was the better Browns wide receiver throughout the duration of time when him and Kyrie Irving OBJ shared the field, full stop. I know he isn’t the flashy name and he has a history of being known as “the possession receiver” but he can and has put up 19+ DK point games when Cleveland needs to pass the ball over the last few years including 3 of the last 5 games he played last season during the playoff push and week one against the Chiefs where he caught 5 of 5 and ran in a touchdown. And it is his birthday for those of you who love a birthday narrative.
I can and will run out some lineups with both either defense tonight. In my summary paragraph I mentioned it but if you glossed over it both teams can and will have terrible offensive outings at random points in the season regardless of who they are facing including last week where the Ravens scored 10 points against the Dolphins and week 7 where they got the snot beat out of them by the Bengals. And the Browns have Baker Mayfield throwing the ball, not much else needs to be said. Justin Tucker is always in play as he puts up WR2 numbers each and every week (9.5 DK PPG average, better than Jarvis Landry)
It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We’re back with a new Sunday Night Win Daily NHL Article! Hope you all had an amazing thanksgiving and a lot of Turkey! Tonight, we have a small 4-game slate. So, let’s get ready for the newest edition of WinDaily’s Between the Benches! For tonight’s 11/28 NHL slate, the slate begins at 7:00 pm ET. Don’t forget to lock your lines and check the discord for any updates! Let’s get into it!
11/28 NHL Stack Report
11/28 NHL Goalie Tracker
Best (Goalies to Roster)
Worst (Goalies to Target)
11/28 NHL Wild Card Targets
Dawson Mercer (FD: $4,700 | DK: $4,700)
– For his price, Mercer has been excellent as he has 8 points in his last 8 games and will be going up against a Flyers side who has been abysmal as of late, losing their last five games. Further to that point, the Flyers will be starting back-up Martin Jones as regular starter Carter Hart coughed up six goals in his last game. Jones is coming into tonight on a three-game losing streak and at Mercer’s price, it’s hard to stray away from him on this small slate with all the signs pointing to a strong night for the Devils. Vegas agrees as they currently have the Devils implied total at 3.3 and currently list the Devils as a -139 favourite at the time of writing. Mercer does see power play time on the second unit and sees anywhere from 16 to 18 minutes of ice time per game. Mercer’s linemates are good value plays as well (Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Bratt) but he also can work as a one off play.
Honorable Mention(s): Troy Terry, Brandon Hagel, William Nylander, Trevor Zegras, Tomas Tatar
Core Four: (ALWAYS BE STACKIN’)
Centre – Auston Matthews
Winger – Brad Marchand
Defenseman – Dougie Hamilton
Goalie – Jack Campbell
Matthews – Marchand – Kane – Putting Up Points
Honorable Mention(s): Rapidfire
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This article focuses on 11/27 EPL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format. The goal is to gain an edge on the field at large.
Welcome back as we return with our bellies stuffed post-Thanksgiving for Matchweek Thirteen of the EPL season!
We have a very straightforward four-game slate, in which Liverpool are heavy favorites and as a result, today’s chalk.
Wolves (+115) at Norwich (+255)
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/
This article will focus on NHL Daily Fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using advanced hockey metrics, slate analysis, and line by line evaluation, this article will point you towards what we think are the best plays for the night! Good luck!
Hey everyone, and welcome back to another Friday Forecheck! The NHL returns back to action tonight after the Thanksgiving holiday. Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and were able to enjoy some time with loved ones. There are multiple slates on this Black Friday NHL day, but this article will focus on the Main Slate, starting at 7pm Eastern.
Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins: Jarry has been playing absolutely lights out for Pittsburgh over the last few games, and he has a great matchup tonight against the New York Islanders, who are still battling some COVID issues throughout their lineup. He should be in line for a win, with some decent shot upside tonight.
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus Blue Jackets: Elvis has not been playing too great as of late, but this game is a chance for him to rebound. He has a slightly inflated 2.91 GAA over his last five games, but tonight has a chance to right the ship against a Vancouver team who has been struggling to score on the road, putting up just 2.2 goals per game over their last five road games. The Canucks are also surrendering a whopping 5 goals against per game over that same stretch.
Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars: Oettinger is another goalie who has been playing really well, and that is exactly what the Stars needed. Over their last five home games, the Stars have given up just 2 goals against per game, and in that stretch, handled the Edmonton Oilers, which is a feat in itself. Tonight, they get the Colorado Avalanche, who have been good on the road, scoring 4 goals per game. This is the shot upside, maybe get a win at low ownership, play tonight.
These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 – Auston Matthews/Michael Bunting/Mitch Marner/Morgan Rielly: The Leafs have been playing well on this road trip, and everything points to that continuing tonight. They get a matchup tonight against the San Jose Sharks, and this top line should see a bunch of the Logan Couture line. This sets up nicely for AM and his crew.
Columbus Blue Jackets 1 – Boone Jenner/Oliver Bjorkstrand/Gustav Nyquist/Zach Werenski: The Blue Jackets have arguably the best upside on the board tonight. As mentioned above, the Canucks have been very bad on the road of late, and they have been giving up goals left and right. The Jackets play well at home, scoring 3.6 goals per game on the season thus far.
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 – Steven Stamkos/Ondrej Palat/Alex Barre-Boulet/Victor Hedman: The Lightning are in a fantastic spot as well, at home against the Seattle Kraken, who have been almost as bad as the Canucks on the road. Grubauer, the Kraken goalie, has been terrible so far this year, and even if he doesn’t go and the Lightning face Driedger, well that’s nice too! This top line will see a lot of the depth of Seattle tonight, and that is a fantastic plus matchup. You can also consider a TBL3 look of Ross Colton/Boris Katchouck/Taylor Raddysh. They are extreme value, but also extremely volatile. They did match up against the top line in their last home game, so there is a possibility of some upside there, if you want access to a high Vegas total for a discount. The TBL3 look is considered VERY high risk.
These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 – Jeff Carter/Jason Zucker/Kasperi Kapanen/John Marino: The Pens are a team that should do well tonight against a depleted Islanders team. Based on a small sample of line matching, this line should see the top line for the Isles for most of the night, which sets them up very nicely. The top Islander line is giving up 15.38 high danger chances against per 60. This line is only producing 8.58 high danger chances per 60, but the opportunities should be there. Consider the top line as well of Sidney Crosby/Jake Guentzel/Bryan Rust when looking at the Pens tonight.
Dallas Stars 3 – Tyler Seguin/Jacob Peterson/Alexander Radulov: This line should see a bunch of the depth lines for the Colorado Avalanche tonight, in a plus matchup. Seguin/Radulov have not been the same this year, which is what makes them risky, but this line looks to be in a good spot tonight.
Montreal Canadiens 3 – Jake Evans/Artturi Lehkonen/Brendan Gallagher: The line matching that Buffalo rolls with sets this line up with a very, very nice matchup against the opposing third line. These guys don’t hit the ice as much as we would like to see, so they carry a whole lot of risk, but they have a really nice upside matchup tonight, at very little to no ownership.
Honorable mentions: BUF1, COLPP, NYI2, SJS1, TOR2
Center: Ross Colton ($2800) – Tampa Bay Lightning
Wing: Cole Caufield ($3000) – Montreal Canadiens
Defense: Vladislav Gavrikov ($2800) – Columbus Blue Jackets
Center: Anthony Cirelli ($4400) – Tampa Bay Lightning
Wing: Michael Bunting ($3900) – Toronto Maple Leafs
Defense: Brian Dumoulin ($3600) – Pittsburgh Penguins
Steven Stamkos – C – Tampa Bay Lightning
Oliver Bjorkstrand – W – Columbus Blue Jackets
Cale Makar – D – Colorado Avalanche
Andrei Vasilevskiy – G – Tampa Bay Lightning
Steven Stamkos – C – Tampa Bay Lightning
Oliver Bjorkstrand – W – Columbus Blue Jackets
Cale Makar – D – Colorado Avalanche
Andrei Vasilevskiy – G – Tampa Bay Lightning
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
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