DraftKings

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/12

We actually have a regular-size Sunday slate with 10 games, although the pitching leaves something to be desired. We have some options at just about every level but they may not be the best options we’ve ever seen. Let’s talk about who’s going to make sense on the slate in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/12 and find green screens!

Aces 

Kyle Wright 

We normally just go by salary but they aren’t far apart and I love Wright today. The Pirates have been strikeout machines lately (leading the league at 26.3% against righties over the past 14 days) and Wright has a 27.2% K rate, a swinging-strike rate of 12.8%, and a 2.75 WHIP. As we saw yesterday and Friday with Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton, the upside is immense as those two totaled 20 strikeouts themselves. Wright has only allowed a 0.40 HR/9 and while his 3.26 xFIP tells us that is pretty low, Pittsburgh isn’t making enough contact to counteract his strikeout prowess. The Pirates are also only 20th when facing a curveball and that is the main pitch for Wright at 31.7% of the time and it carries a 36.7% whiff rate with 32 strikeouts. Both sides of the plate have a .250 wOBA or lower and the right side is at a matching 2.43 FIP/xFIP. Lefties could give him some small bit of trouble with a 4.18 xFIP so a one-off like Bryan Reynolds is interesting, but Wright is in one to dominate. 

Justin Verlander 

I didn’t love him in the last start and he laughed in my face as he whiffed 12 hitters and scored 37 DK points. He threw his fastball only 42% in the last start, the fewest of the season and I wonder if that’s something that could turn into a trend. The slider and curve both have whiff rates of at least 32.9% and they have combined for 57 of 73 strikeouts. It’s not crazy to think Verlander could embrace a shift in the arsenal to accentuate what still does extremely well for him, sort of like Clayton Kershaw. That is speculation on my part but he’s got his K rate up to 27%, the swinging-strike rate is 11.2%, and the xFIP is only 3.38. I suspect that may wind up being higher than the ERA all season since Verlander is allowing a 43.8% fly-ball rate but he generally knows exactly how to keep runs off the board. He also has both sides of the plate at a .252 wOBA or under and there isn’t anything to stand out against him past the Marlins being a great offense on paper. They’re in the top five in wOBA and wRC+ and that may not matter for the wily veteran. 

Mid-Range 

Michael Kopech 

He should be more expensive in this spot considering he just smacked the Dodgers around, and the Texas lineup is not that good. They are mid-pack in basically everything including the K rate over the past 14 days with two exceptions. One is ISO where they are ninth but the other is OBP where they are 24th. That’s not the worst combo and perhaps the biggest worry is that Kopech is worse against lefties with a .270 wOBA and a 4.96 xFIP but he also features a 29.3% K rate against that side of the plate so things aren’t all bad. The 65.9% fly ball rate is a big reason the xFIP is so high but his curve is more prevalent to the left side and it has the best whiff rate at 30.4%. His fastball has the most strikeouts at 34 and Texas is just 24th against that pitch, a boost for Kopech. With a 25.5% K rate and a 10.3% swinging-strike rate, he makes a lot of sense here and I could see him being a popular SP2. 

Jameson Taillon 

I’m keeping it short with him because he sort of drives me nuts. The K rate is only 18.7% and his xFIP of 3.68 is still almost a full run higher than the 2.73 ERA but aside from the last start, he’s been mostly successful. Taillon does generate a 27.2% hard-hit rate to couple with his 44.3% ground ball rate and it is easier to stomach him at this salary as opposed to over $9,000 as he has been through a lot of the season. The swinging-strike rate is still under 10% and the lineup may not cooperate with his splits either. The Cubs could play six righties and allow has a .312 wOBA, 3/78 xFIP, and just a 15.9% K rate against that side of the plate. On paper, Kopech makes much more sense so here comes 25 DK from Taillon once again. The Cubs are sixth in OBP so they can be pesky on the right day. 

Ranger Suarez 

I’d rather play Suarez who has a much friendlier matchup against the D-Backs, who rank in the bottom five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP to go along with a 25% K rate and the seventh-highest ground ball rate. Suarez has been tough to get right this season but since May, the xFIP has been below 4.00 and the K rate has jumped over 20% and he’s been a little bit better. The right side of the plate only generates a 22.1% hard-hit rate which puts the .348 wOBA as a little bit of an odd metric. His sinker only has a one-degree launch angle on it this season and the D-Backs ranking so high in ground ball rate should help out here. It also helps that they are dead last when facing a changeup and that’s the strikeout pitch for Suarez with a 31.9% whiff rate and 12 strikeouts, the most outside of the sinker. His price is affordable and he has shown he can score 20+ DK points in any given start, it’s just he can score under five as well. 

Punt Range 

Ross Stripling 

I’m sort of hesitant here but this s about the only pitcher that I can see having a path to success that falls into the punt range. Stripling has gone from 38 to 56 pitches in the past two appearances so I don’t think he’s going more than five innings or 75-ish pitches but this is the Detroit lineup. Even if we shrink the sample to just the past 14 days, they are 30th in wRC+, wOBA, and OBP with a K rate over 25%. Stripling does have a K rate over 201.% although I wouldn’t expect more than 3-5 strikeouts. He’s also generating a 53% ground ball rate and a 24.3% hard-hit rate so the profile is actually fairly strong from a metrics perspective. Detroit is fifth in ground ball rate over the past two weeks and ninth through the whole season, and neither side of the plate is over a .297 wOBA. We could do worse with the matchup considered. 

Missed The Cut 

I realized that I added this section without much of an explanation, which was my fault. Pitchers who “Miss The Cut” COULD potentially have a good game, but some part of the profile or matchup stick out in a very negative way. I wouldn’t be playing any of these pitchers in cash, SE GPP, or even 3-max. These would be 20-max or deeper options and I think there is a higher risk for a really bad game that sinks any lineup. 

Edward Cabrera – If you’re playing a 20-max GPP, perhaps you can get after Cabrera in a few but through two starts, he’s racked up a 12.5% walk rate, a 4.66 xFIP compared to his 0.75 ERA, a 100% strand rate, and a .080 BABIP. I’m not sure Houston is the team I want to try that profile against, although he is wildly talented. We’re only talking about a 12-inning sample so there is a good game possible, but he’s not cheap at all. 

Graham Ashcraft – I just don’t want to pay up for a pitcher that has a 14.3% K rate and swinging-strike rate under 9%. While he’s getting a 60.6% ground ball rate, that’s driving all of his success and his salary demands strikeouts or close to perfection. 

Tarik Skubal – I love Skubal typically but this is such a tough spot. Toronto is in the top five in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wC+ when facing a lefty. They also lead in walk rate at 11.3% and are 23rd in K rate at just 19.8%. The path to success is there, but it’s narrow. The Jays can be a bust offense (Beau Brieske says hi from Saturday) but the matchup just does not line up well for Skubal. 

Jon Gray – He was probably the closest to getting a full write-up with a 3.88 xFIP contrasted with a 5.28 ERA and he does have a K rate over 24%. The issues come from the hard-hit rate of over 30% and a 4.61 xFIP with a 5.94 ERA on the road, not to mention his K splits are titanic. In Texas (only 12.2 IP), it’s over 39% while on the road (33.1 IP) it is only 18.8%. I tend to think the road numbers are more indicative of how he’s pitching although the White Sox struggle when facing righty pitching. 

Stacks

Phillies

Braves

Reds

Brewers

Rays

Royals

Yankees

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9

We only have five games on the main slate tonight as Thursday is a travel day for quite a few teams but there are some quality pitchers on the slate. There are two pitchers that are priced like an ace and another that can put out an ace-level score. Let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9 and figure out who we’re chasing to lead the charge to green screens! 

Aces 

Gerrit Cole 

Cole just keeps on trucking along through this season and he’s down to a 2.78 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 2.60 xFIP over the course of 64.2 innings. His K rate has climbed up to 31.5% after not striking out a lot of hitters toward the stat of the year and the swinging-strike rate remains extremely high at 15.5%. Over the past 30 days, the Twins lineup has struck out at a 24.2% rate and that is the sixth-highest mark in the majors but this spot is not without risk. During that span, they are also fourth in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in addition to eighth in ISO. They are also 10th against the fastball which could cause some issues since Cole is using that pitch 49% of the time (it does have 46 strikeouts so it’s not the normal fastball). He does see a bump in K rate when facing a lefty at 35.1% but righties are only at a .296 wOBA and 28.8% K rate. I feel like Cole is going to give up a bomb or two, but he’ll land between 8-10 strikeouts and still be worth the salary tonight. 

Max Fried 

Fried is one of those pitchers that I want to catch in the right spot and the Pirates do check that box. While they can be pesky, they have a young offense as a whole and Fried can take advantage of that fact. Pittsburgh is 28th in OBP, 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+, and they carry a 23.9% K rate. They do rise to 15th in ISO but Fried has a 0.65 HR/9 and a 52.5% ground ball rate so he’s equipped to neutralize that aspect of the Pittsburgh offense. Fried also has a K rate over 22% and he’s holding righties to a .278 wOBA with a 1.09 WHIP. The changeup still isn’t a big piece of the arsenal but he’s thrown it at a 12.5% rate so far this year and it has a 36.8% whiff rate to go with his curve at a 40.7% whiff rate. Fried can throw any of his five pitches at any time and keeps hitters off-balance, and should be worth the salary against a vulnerable offense tonight. 

Shohei Ohtani 

This salary almost feels like a trap because we know the upside that Ohtani has, although it is fair to point out that his floor is low as well. Ohtani has been unlucky if the xFIP is telling the truth because it’s only 2.70 compared to a 3.99 ERA but the fly-ball rate has risen to 42.5%. When we combine that with a HR/FB rate of almost 16%, that gets him to the eight home runs he’s allowed and his barrel rate is almost 11%. Despite some of the issues that Ohtani has had this season, his K rate has never been higher at 33% and his walk rate has never been lower than the 5.6% mark he has right now. Even the swinging-strike rate is as high as it’s ever been at 15.1% so the ability to miss bats is elite. Everything but the four-seam has a whiff rate over 42% and that splitter is still the lead pitch in strikeouts at 23. We’ll hope for plenty of righties as he has a .261 wOBA, 2.28 xFIP, and a 37.6% K rate when facing that side but the bottom line is we don’t get Ohtani cheaper, regardless of opponent. 

Nick Pivetta

I can’t help but think Pivetta is going to get waxed at some point because I don’t think he’s as good as he’s pitched so far, even though a 4.00 xFIP isn’t utterly terrible. However, if he draws the Angels lineup that Eovaldi got last night, it’s a different story. Mike Trout was out and he joined Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon as missing from the lineup and that particular version had a cumulative K rate of over 27%. Pivetta has worked himself to a 23.3% K rate and he’s under a 0.90 HR/9, so his quality 

has been solid through 60+ innings. Both sides of the plate are under .300 for the wOBA and the more righties might be better. The wOBA and WHIP are higher, but the xFIP is almost a full run lower and the K rate goes up to 26%. His slider/four-seam combo has really done well for him with the slider having the best whiff rate of the arsenal at 31.9% and the four-seam having 24 strikeouts. His curve is dead even to both sides at 135 each and that pitch has 21 so it’s a balanced attack from Pivetta. Let’s see what kind of lineup Pivetta gets tonight. 

Punts

Konnor Pilkington 

This is what we wrote yesterday before the Guardians pushed him back one day – 

This is a dangerous play since Pilkington has no real track record to speak of but he’s so cheap for a 29.1% K rate that we have to consider him. Now, the walk rate is sky-high at 12.7% and his fly-ball rate is over 41% but the hard-hit rate is only 23.9% and Pilkington has a 15.3% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers would command a much higher salary if they were consistent and he’s held righties to a .290 wOBA with a 2.19 FIP. His changeup and slider both have generated a whiff rate over 44% and Texas is 19th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 21st in OPS over the past 30 days against lefty pitching. They still have plenty of power as they rank in the top 10 in ISO in that span but Pilkington has yet to allow a home run, so there is plenty to like about him even with warts. 

This matchup might actually be even better for him since the A’s have a higher K rate at 23.6% and they are no higher than 22nd in any category. 

Stacks

Orioles

Guardians

Royals

Braves

Yankees

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!