A huge WINNER last week for the WinDaily community, as David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at a MASSIVE 125/1!
We had a decent Divisional Round weekend with our NFL Game Bets. Saturday saw us assess the possibility of at least one of the #1 seeds struggling (10-14-2 ATS since 2010). The issue is we got the game in which it occurred incorrect. But then Sunday came and we got both of those outcomes correct to even out our record to 5-5 in the playoffs.
Sunday 1/28/24 UPDATE: On Thursday I gave out my initial leans. Today, I’ve locked in my two primary bets. We’re dialing up Ravens -4 (I’ve seen it drop to -3.5 in some books) and Lions +7.5.
My concerns with Baltimore were circled around their recent trend of having offensive struggles in playoff games. And that did rear its head early in the Divisional Round, as Baltimore went into halftime tied at 10 with Houston. But something happened in the second half. The Ravens put the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands on the first drive which resulted in two scripted QB runs and four pass plays to get the ball in the endzone. On the ensuing drive, they once again trusted Jackson in making the right plays and drove the ball 93 yards to take a 14-point lead. Game, set and match.
And now that weight of winning a playoff game and reaching the conference finals for the first time in 10 years, is totally off their shoulders. Which I believe is a huge factor in handicapping this game. Baltimore will now play at home for the 4th game in a row, which means they haven’t traveled since Christmas Day when they beat the 49ers in San Francisco.
But there’s a giant on the opposing sideline this weekend. And that’s the reigning Super Bowl Champions in the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is almost unbeatable as an underdog. In his career he is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog on the road. This is undeniably a proverbial behemoth that hardly loses. And when they do, it’s not without a fight.
However, here are the trends that I’m weighing heavily. Teams playing a 4th consecutive home game, entering a Conference Championship, are 7-1 SU. Additionally, HC John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs since 2012. His counterpart, Andy Reid, is 0-2 SU on the road in Conference Championships.
In the end, Kansas City’s struggles this year have been on offense. And they are now facing their biggest challenge in the Ravens who allow the least points per game in the NFL. The Ravens also create significant pressure, leading the NFL in sacks. The Ravens are not going to allow Travis Kelce to beat them. Someone in the Chiefs WR room will have to step up. And that’s where my confidence in the Chiefs stops. Also factor in the we’ve seen 64% of the tickets and 73% of the money pour in on KC. Yet, in some books, the line has moved up to Baltimore -4. That’s a clear signal that Vegas has a beat on this game.
JUSTICE HILL over 2.5 rec (+150): The Ravens don’t throw a lot in general. And that’s even more true in terms of throws to their RB’s. But one area in which the Chiefs will concede is throws to the running backs. Just look at the last 4 games and how teams RB’s fared:
So you see a trend here. As discussed on last nights’ NFL Draftcast, I expect Justice Hill to have a larger role than Gus Edwards. And if that turns out to be the case, Hill should be the recipient of the pass catching opportunities and keep up a trend of lead RB’s getting at least 3 catches versus KC.
A big factor in this bet is the health of San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel. This season, 49ers are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS when Deebo plays and finishes a game. They are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t. Brock Purdy looks more like the last pick in the draft when missing his go-to WR. And although Detroit’s secondary is suspect, without Samuel they can cover that up with creative blitz packages.
Then there’s this idea of how Jared Goff struggles against the blitz. In reality, he’s rather efficient as he led the league in passing yards when facing a blitz. He also threw the second most TD’s, 13, trailing only Jordan Love. When he faces teams that sack the QB at a rate of 4% or more, which SF does, he is 7-1 ATS this season. And since we know the Lions offensive line is one of the tops in the league, the only true way to get to a 4% sack rate will be via the blitz. So is sending the house really a strategy that SF is willing to take this weekend? That will be one of the more interesting moves to keep an eye on when the Lions have the ball.
Ultimately, the Lions are good enough to hang with any team in the league. They’ve shown that with road wins in KC, Green Bay and Tampa. And they should have another one under their belt but they ended up losing by one point to Dallas late in the year on the road. Their 6-3 record on the road was 2nd in the NFC behind only SF (7-2). I just think 7 points is too much considering the Lions only lost by more than 7 twice all year (for comparison 49ers lost by more than 7 points twice as well).
So let’s keep an eye on Deebo’s status but my early lean is to ride the blue wave in Detroit and take the 7 points.
DAVID MONTGOMERY over 43.5 yards rushing – Montgomery has gone over this number in all but two of his 16 games played this season (subtracting the game where got hurt vs TB). The Lions pride themselves on being a rushing first team. And we just saw a similar style runner in Aaron Jones go for 108 rushing yards versus this SF defense.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Welcome back to NHL Top Bets for this 1/25 NHL article. The people made it known they wanted expanded NHL betting content and Win Daily listened. We have a pair of bets below for this nine-game Thursday slate.
As always, think for yourself. The information below is only meant to supplement your knowledge and if you don’t agree with a portion, that’s fine, we’re all entitled to our own opinions. Also be sure to scour as many sportsbooks as possible before placing a bet as the odds tend to vary a little in most circumstances.
Aside from reading this 1/25 NHL Top Bets article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings – Detroit ML (-130)
Tonight, we have a matchup between two teams that have suffered in recent seasons but have turned their luck around in 2023-2024.
The Red Wings have had their best season in many years, sporting a 24-18-5 record coming into tonight. The Red Wings are 12-8-4 in their home games this season but as of late they have been on a roll. Detroit is 7-2-1 over their last 10 games and will be looking to keep the momentum going.
Meanwhile, the Flyers have also had their best season in at least four years and will be entering the night 25-17-6. They have done some of their best work in road games too with a 14-6-4 road record away from home. This all said, with goalie Carter Hart out indefinitely, I expect some regression. There is simply no replacing him although Samuel Ersson may try all he likes. Aside from missing Hart, the absence of Owen Tippett due to injury may further hinder the Flyers.
The Red Wings have been favored 14 times this season and have finished 9-5 in those games. Detroit has an 8-3 record (winning 72.7% of its games) when it has played as a money line favorite of -130 or shorter.
While the over is also tempting here, the better value is on this surging Red Wings team. The whole city of Detroit is on a sports high this week and expect the Red Wings to help keep the hysteria strong.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders – Under 6 (-115)
This matchup features a pair of teams not known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Canadiens have lost six of their last eight games and have barely been scoring. As for the Islanders, at this point low scoring games are a part of their reputation.
In terms of positives, on the New York side, Mathew Barzal has been a driving force for the Islanders with 12 goals and 48 points this season. Meanwhile defenseman Noah Dobson has also made an impact with 6 goals and 48 points.
For the Canadiens, Nick Suzuki leads the team with 12 goals and 39 points, followed by Cole Caufield with 16 goals and 36 points. Bo Horvat is questionable for the Islanders tonight as he is suffering from an injury.
Even with Horvat out, the Islanders should still win here. However, rather than picking sides we will just go with the more apparent bet on the total. The Islanders are 24th in the NHL this year in terms of goals per game, coming in with just 2.93 goals er game on the season. Five of the Islander’s last six games have went under 6.5 with one six total on the number and every other total below that. This all said, the Canadiens sit 28th in the NHL this year with just 2.72 goals per game and in consideration of all of that, the under here is our best bet.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at NHL – WIN DAILY® (windailysports.com)
Championship Round Weekend is here and we are ready to crush another slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have Jason, Dave, and Tony to break down the 2023 NFL Championship Weekend Main Slate to give out their picks and plays to help you make a profit! We got 2 great games when the Kansas City Chiefs head to take on the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions visit the San Francisco 49ers.
Make sure to check our NFL Projections, NFL Optimizer, and continue the conversation in our Discord Expert Chat!
Welcome back to the second week of NHL Top Bets for this 1/24 NHL article. The people made it known they wanted expanded NHL betting content and Win Daily listened. We have a pair of bets below for this seven-game Wednesday slate.
As always, think for yourself. The information below is only meant to supplement your knowledge and if you don’t agree with a portion, that’s fine, we’re all entitled to our own opinions. Also be sure to scour as many sportsbooks as possible before placing a bet as the odds tend to vary a little in most circumstances.
Aside from reading this 1/24 NHL Top Bets article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins – Boston ML (-135)
We’re starting off with a matchup between two Eastern Conference heavyweights. Carolina will be entering the night 25-15-5. whereas Boston comes in with a record of 29-8-9. Last season, these two teams faced each other three times with the Bruins winning two of the three matchups.
As of late, the offense has been very good for the Hurricanes. They have scored three or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. Carolina ranks ninth in goals per game and fifth in shots per game. Sebastian Aho leads the team with 51 points. On the defensive side, the Hurricanes have been strong as well. They rank fifteenth in goals against per game and first in shots against per game.
Boston’s offense has also been good recently. The Bruins have scored four or more goals in six of their last 10 games. The Bruins rank seventh in goals per game and seventeenth in shots per game. Their main star David Pastrnak leads the team in production with 67 points and 30 goals. The Bruin’s defense hasn’t lived up to standards of past seasons, but the goaltending has helped compensate for this. Linus Ullmark has a record of 14-5-2 with a 2.80 GAA and .913 SV%. while Jeremy Swayman has a record of 15-3-7 with a 2.31 GAA and .923 SV%.
We could try to boost the odds a bit and aim for the regulation win, but I think we just eat the money line here at -135 “check other sites outside DraftKings before placing for the best odds possible”. As noted above both teams have been in great form recently but the Bruins are winners of five straight and should make it six straight at home.
Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings – Under 6.5 (-115)
For the season, the Kings have allowed the least goals in the NHL (116). Meanwhile, Buffalo has not been among the league’s highest scoring teams with 136 goals and Los Angeles only has five more (141). The fact that this total is set at 6.5 is interesting to begin with.
Overall, Los Angeles has been the better team this season but not as of late. The Kings come in 2-2-4 over their last ten games whereas Buffalo is 6-4. It gets worse than that as Los Angeles has only won two of their last thirteen games. It is not very surprising but a big reason why they have been losing so much is that they have not been scoring goals. In fact, one of the two wins during that stretch was a 2-1 victory last week against the Rangers.
Buffalo has seen the total go over in just one of their previous five contests. Looking over a longer timeframe, the under has hit in 16 of the Sabres last 24 road games. The under has hit in 15 of the King’s last 24 home games including in four of their last five. Overall, across their last month or two, low scoring affairs have been the norm.
For all of the reasons noted above, this bet makes a lot of sense, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move down to six even or below by gametime.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at NHL – WIN DAILY® (windailysports.com)
The PGA Draftcast crew are back to LIVE draft some more PGA Tour golf DFS, as they preview the Farmers Insurance Open!
We have a great weekend of football ahead of us as the NFL enters the Divisional Round. As a recap for Wildcard Weekend, I went 3-3 on game bets and if I could have let my heart stay quiet, we would have been 5-1 (Damn Flacco and the Birds). But it shows we have a good pulse on several of these teams and looking forward to dissecting these games. The storylines are also deep this week as we see San Fran and Green Bay matchup for the 10th time in the playoffs. And we have Mahomes vs. Allen for what is the third leg of their playoff trilogy.
The other two games have interesting parallels as both Houston/Baltimore and Tampa Bay/Detroit faced off in the regular season. The first rounds were both double digit affairs, but the dogs are coming into these games hot and with something to prove.
Last week against the Browns, CJ Stroud looked like a veteran QB that had navigated the pressures of the playoffs. But yet that was his first playoff game and he wowed by throwing 3 TD’s and completing 76% of his passes. In doing so, he became the youngest QB to win a playoff game in NFL history. He also tied Lamar Jackson, this week’s opposing QB, for career playoff victories.
This game will come down to whether the Texans can effectively move the ball through the air against the number 1 pass defense in the league. And whether the Ravens can move the ball on the ground against the number 2 rush defense in the NFL For Houston, they’ll need to establish the run to open up the pass similar to what they did against Cleveland. Stroud silenced the pass rush using play action early and often. And in Baltimore’s four losses this season they’ve allowed an average of 140 yards rushing per game.
Here’s the other points to consider. CJ Stroud is 6-1 ATS against teams over 0.500 this season. And since Week 2, he is 9-3 in games he started. The three losses have come by a combined 7 points. As for the Ravens, they are the number one seed for a reason and have the most well rounded team in the AFC. But since 2010, number one seeds are just 10-14-2 ATS. Even more worrisome is they are just 18-8 SU.
I think there’s enough juice in the tank, and enough players on the Houston sideline for them to compete for 60 minutes against Baltimore. They lost in week 1 by a score of 25-9. But they were only down 7-6 at half and actually outgained Baltimore by 3 yards. The difference was Baltimore scored TD’s on their drives while Houston settled for three FG’s. With a full season now under his belt, I expect Stroud to turn those three’s into seven’s and make this a much more competitive game.
DEVIN SINGLETARY anytime TD scorer (+130) and over 61.5 yards rushing (-110): If the Texans are to stay close, they’ll need Singletary to get yards on the ground and in the air. He’s scored a TD in two straight games so he has that going for him. And he’s gone over 61.5 yards in five of his last six.
ISAIAH LIKELY over 18.5 yards longest reception (-110): Likely gone well over this number in five straight games. And the one he missed, six weeks ago, his longest was 18 yards. Bottom line, he’s tough to tackle in open space and we saw Njoku have success against the Texans last week.
The Packers looked good as you possibly could last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay pulled off the massive upset winning in the Boys home stadium, something that hadn’t been done in 16 games. Now they face an even tougher task, and that’s the 49ers who are the best all-around football team in the NFL.
Looking at matchups, San Fran should have no problem moving the ball against Green Bay. The Pack are both 26th in passing defense and rushing defense DVOA. San Fran on the other hand is 4th in passing defense DVOA and 15th in rushing defense DVOA. But more impressively, they have the #1 rated offense according to DVOA. And that’s really the big difference here in this game. San Fran will put up points but can also get enough stops to win by margin.
I love Green Bay. From Matt LeFleur to Jordan Love, I’ve been riding the team from the bay in Wisconsin all year. But this is where the buck stops. I have concerns about Green Bay’s health on defense. Their star DB Jaire Alexander is questionable, and they have ruled out linebacker Kingsley Enagbare. Even at full strength, this is a defense that has often struggled against high-powered offenses.
San Fran is 5-2 against playoff teams this season with their only true loss to Baltimore (lost Week 18 to LA Rams). On the other hand, Green Bay was 3-3 against playoff teams during the regular season. Plus Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 ATS and SU at home in the playoffs.
GEORGE KITTLE over 54.5 yards receiving – The Packers allow the 5th most fantasy points to TE’s. They’ve allowed over this number to 5 of the last 6 TE’s they faced. And we saw what Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson did in the middle of the field last week.
BRANDON AIYUK over 4.5 receptions – Green Bay is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s. And even if Alexander plays, he primarily plays on one side of the field. It’s a toss up between Deebo and Aiyuk as who is truly #1 WR in this offense. But in this particular matchup I think Deebo will get more of the focus leaving opportunities for Aiyuk.
Between WinDaily staff and subscribers, I feel like I’m in the minority for this game. On the surface, Tampa was dominant, and Detroit looked lucky to win. There are several recent events where the team that squeaked by in the Wild Card round failed to win in the Divisional round. But there aren’t many occasions where that team played at home two weeks in a row (wildcard to divisional) since that could only happen in the new playoff format which started in 2020-21.
But I tend to believe the Lions should play better this week without the pressure of having to win a playoff game for the first time in 32 years. Plus, facing the Rams was additional pressure that definitely weighed on the Lions. That was all lifted off their back and now they can dial completely in on their opponent this week, who they dominated earlier this year winning 20-6 in Tampa. As for Tampa, they looked great last week but played a flawed team in Philly. If they come with the same game plan, all-out blitzes, and leave the middle open, they will get exposed by the short passing game of the Lions.
A key factor to me will be redzone possessions. I was impressed with the Lions redzone defense as they forced the Rams into three FG’s. That could be a difference this week as Detroit is 2nd in redzone TD efficiency and Tampa Bay is 30th.
Finally, QB Jared Goff actually plays well against teams above 0.500. He’s 7-3 ATS at home and 14-5 ATS overall against such teams in a Lions uniform. And for all the research I did, I can’t find a team with 8 losses to ever make the conference championship game. So as much as I fear backing Dan Campbell, I just think the Lions have the right mix to roll over the Bucs.
JAMESON WILLIAMS over 35.5 yard (-110) / over 50 yards (+170) / over 75 yards (+470) – He let a lot of people down last week so that’s the exact reason to go back to the well in this one. We saw Devonta Smith beat Tampa over the top last week which is a weekly occurrence for the Bucs D. Williams is the one deep threat in this offense. The Lions WR had two catches for 53 yards, including a 45 yard TD catch, in their first outing.
MIKE EVANS over 5.5 receptions (+125) – Don’t get turned off by Evans’ numbers last week as he had a tough matchup versus CB Darius Slay. But he also dropped two balls that would have put him over 100 yards. Evans saw 7 targets last week and saw 10 targets when the Bucs played Detroit back in Week 6. This is a good number for a high volume WR.
I am a Bills fan at heart. The small city in Western New York has endured too many heartbreaks over the past 3 decades. And today, they face their biggest adversary in the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are 2-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. And while Buffalo won the game in KC earlier this year, that goes out the window for this affair.
I’m buying up the Chiefs to 3 points but think they’re live on the moneyline as well. Mahomes is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. And Andy Reid is 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. As much as I want the Bills to win one for Buffalo, I can’t ignore those numbers.
JAMES COOK over 2.5 receptions – He doesn’t score TD’s but he makes up for that in the passing game. Cook has 44 receptions on the year and went over this total in the past two weeks. He also had five catches on five targets in the first game against KC. How often the Chiefs blitz helps drive this number up.
RASHEE RICE over 70.5 yards – Rice has been on a tear since midseason. He’s the beneficiary of teams trying to minimize Kelce’s impact on games. He had 10 targets and 72 yards in his first matchup against Buffalo. I expect a similar workload today, and one where he could break one of those quick hitters for a big game to help get him over this number.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
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