DraftKings

We had a slow start to the Wild Card Weekend but hit on both the underdogs yesterday (bets provided on Sirius and Discord) to even out our game bets record at 2-2. And we have one more day to get that number into the positive and that’s exactly what we’re aiming to do today.

The Packers became the first road team to win in the playoffs and have swiftly changed the landscape of the NFC. They made history by being the first #7 seed to win a playoff game. The other #7 seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers, look to repeat that feat today in the AFC.

The nightcap features an embattled QB, Baker Mayfield, facing an embattled team, the Philadelphia Eagles. What team shows up for Philly may potentially define HC Nick Sirianni’s tenure in the City of Brotherly Love.

2023 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-2 (Regular Season Record 49-29)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD MONDAY

BUFFALO BILLS -10 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

I traded some texts with people in the industry regarding the bets I liked before the playoffs started. And I stuck true to that word, even where I wanted to zag (switch to Houston). But I finally have got to the point where I am comfortable that switching my initial lean is right. And with that, I’m backing the Buffalo Bills today.

I initially leaned towards Pittsburgh because of the Buffalo Bills propensity to play close games versus mediocre teams. And they also have some Dallas Cowboys in them when it comes to the playoffs. There is also the weather, which will obviously be a factor, that can often level the playing field. But the fact of the matter is, the loss of JJ Watt and limitations of QB Mason Rudolph are real.

Here’s what I saw that made me rethink my process. The story and late ascension of Joe Flacco came crashing down in Houston. Same thing happened to Josh Dobbs earlier this year. The NFL eventually figures you out, especially if you’re not a top level talent. Mason Rudolph led the Steelers to a playoff run, but he’s bound to get figured out.

And then there’s the weather which showed up on Saturday night in KC. Better teams, especially ones with a wide difference at QB, can have an even bigger advantage then on a clean field. We saw Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles in the cold and wind and KC was able to just tee off and crowd the line. If Rudolph can’t cut the ball down the field, Buffalo can stack the box and hide their one main weakness, the run defense. And it will allow a D-Line that was 4th in the league in sacks to create havoc on the Steeler’s O-Line.

So I’m back on the table smashing, snow-shoveling, no-shirt wearing bandwagon of the Bills Mafia. The Bills are great front-runners and if they get out to an early lead they should be able to cruise to the Divisional Round and await the dangerous Chiefs.

GAME PROPS:

JAMES COOK over 15.5 carries (-110): The volume has been there of late for Cook. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. And he likely would have got there last week too if it wasn’t for Josh Allen having 15 carries. We all know the weather looks bad but the reason I like this bet is due to the possible game script of Buffalo getting out to a big lead and using the running game to squeeze down the clock. In the games that the Bills have won by double digits this year, Cook has averaged 17.2 carries.

JAYLEN WARREN under 35.5 rushing yards (-110): What I saw in last week’s game steers me towards the under on Jaylen Warren’s props. He fumbled twice in the 4th quarter with Pittsburgh being able to recover one. We know Buffalo saw that and will be looking to punch and strip the ball out of Warren’s hands. It’s snowy and the ball will be wet. I think this will be a tough spot for Warren especially if he loses a fumble at some point. He’s also seen over 10 carries just once in his past six game while his backfield partner has averaged 19 carries in that same stretch.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS

If you all know me by now, I am as down on this Eagles team as any other Philadelphia team in my 40+ years on this planet. Losing 5 of 6 down the stretch, often in back-breaking fashion, made all us Philly fans numb from head to toe. But it is true that the NFL Playoffs are a new season. The Cowboys proved that yesterday.

The key is on defense as it has to improve. And the Eagles have Darius Slay returning to the lineup while reportedly moving Avonte Maddox to safety. That will help cover the losses of Sydney Brown and Ried Blankenship. But the absolute key will be the front seven. They need to tighten up their run defense and make Baker Mayfield one-dimensional.

Remember, though this was early in the season, the Eagles outgained the Bucs 472 to 174. Even as ugly as this team looked for the last month, they have the talent and playmakers, even without A.J Brown, to dominate the Bucs. Offensively, the biggest factor will be how the Eagles handle Todd Bowles’ blitzing. If they can do that effectively, they’ll be able to move the ball and create positive plays in both the passing and running game.

While I’m not confident the switch can be flipped this easily, I do see the possibility of this team getting right and rallying around veterans like Jason Kelce and Brandon Graham now that the noise is not in the locker room. For one night, I see that happening. Or they’ll be the same uninspiring team we saw in December and lose by 20. Should be fun!

GAME PROPS:

DE’ANDRE SWIFT over 13.5 Carries –

CADE OTTON over 13.5 yards longest reception –

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

Welcome to the best weekend in football! It’s the NFL’s Wildcard Weekend where they stretch six games of action over three days to keep our viewing interest on high. And this year, we have so many exciting matchups with 4 of the games landing with a spread of five points or less. The storylines are deep, as you probably already know, with several star players playing their former teams. It’s going to be must watch football for sure!

I finished off the regular season with a 5-0 record in Week 18. And that caps off a 9-1 stretch over the past two weeks. Final record on the season is 49-29, as shown below. Not to toot any horns or blow any whistles, but where else are you going to find a 63% win rate on individual NFL game bets? As you see on the DFS side, and now on the betting side, we put in the work so we can win together. If you bet $100 on each of the games I posted this year, you would be $1710 (+17.1 units). And that’s coming off a 19-11 College Football Bowl Season too! Combined, that would be up $2400 (24 units).

Ok, enough with the WinDaily promotions. Let’s keep the momentum rolling. Each year the playoffs bring a new challenge. Can we get to a perfect playoff prognostication? While that’s the ultimate goal, the real work is winning more than we lose. So let’s set the goal at 8 wins (in 13 games) and see where we land. With that said, my game bets for Saturday’s two games, along with additional props, are below. Let’s go WinDaily Fam!

2023 SEASON RECORD: 49-29 (last week 5-0)

NFL BETS – WILDCARD SATURDAY

CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 at HOUSTON TEXANS

This is a typical betting situation where I would absolutely hammer the Texans. Home dog in the playoffs that is being undervalued by the public. But the issue I have with the Texans is twofold. First, it’s a combination of a rookie QB and rookie HC playing in their first playoff game. Brock Purdy won 2 playoff games as a rookie QB last year. But he was the first rookie QB to win a playoff game since Russell Wilson back in 2012 (Seahawks beat the Redskins 24-14 but that was the RGIII injury game). In all, rookie QB’s are 10-14 in the playoffs.

But speaking of the other side, Joe Flacco is one of the rookies to win a playoff game. In fact he won two before bowing out in the Conference Championship game back in 2008. But the second reason I’m concerned about the Texans is the battle in the trenches. The Browns have the best rated pass rush in football according to ProFootball Focus. The Texans are 19th in pass blocking. Looking even further, the Texans weakness on D is their pass defense which is 23rd according to DVOA. And while the Browns show up as the 27th ranked pass O, they are actually in the top 10 since Flacco took over.

And then there’s this feeling that we’re just on a collision course to see a Browns vs Ravens matchup in the Divisional Round. The stories are too good to be true, with Flacco returning to his first team and the Browns returning to the place where former owner Art Modell up and moved them to. This is one of the toughest games to pick, but I’m taking the Jersey Joe magic to pull off a late victory in Houston.

GAME PROPS:

DEVIN SINGLETARY under 68.5 yards rushing (-110) – The Texans RB has gone over this number just twice in his last 7 games. Cleveland has the 4th best rushing defense according to DVOA. Singletary does get most of the carries but Houston will need to succeed in the passing game today to keep up with the Browns.

JOE FLACCO over 250 passing yards + 2 passing TD’s (+140) – Flacco has thrown over 300 yards in four of his five starts. I’m nervous that Houston will play a deep zone and not allow the big throws. His base prop is 275 yards which is attractive but I’ll take it one notch down and bank on him to go over a soft number at 250 yards instead combined with 2 passing TD’s.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +4.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The story in this game is the weather. If all things hold true, this will be the coldest playoff game ever. Temperature at game time is supposed to be under 0 degrees F. And that would mark only the 4th game on record with a negative temp.

And while you’ll read the stories of a warm team going to this frozen environment, it’s not like the Chiefs are used to it either. For me, this bet is about what we’ve seen all year with Kansas City. They don’t run away from anyone, and they’ve stumbled their way into the playoffs losing games to the Broncos, Raiders, Packers and Bills. And in each of those losses, each team went over 118 yards rushing. And Miami owns the 3rd best rush offense in the league according to DVOA. I have confidence HC Mike McDaniels knows that and will find a way to mix in creative runs with all three of his RB’s; Raheem Mostert, DeVon Achane, and Jeff Wilson.

On defense, the Dolphins will need to find creative ways to create pressure as they’re without two of their best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. But they hired Vic Fangio for a reason. And he’s seen a lot of KC in the past few years based on his roles in Denver and Philly.

Add to that the weather should keep this game tight. And when we predict a low scoring affair, that’s even more reason to take the points.

GAME PROPS:

TRAVIS KELCE over 5.5 receptions (-120) – Kelce has not performed up to his standards this season. But he always performs when it’s playoff time. In 18 career playoff games he has 133 catches and 16 TD’s. That’s an average of 7.4 catches per game. And he’s had at least 6 catches in 13 of this 18 career playoff games. Add to that, the Dolphins are ranked 26th against TE’s this year (Dawson Knox caught a TD and Dalton Kincaid had 7 receptions for 84 yards last week against MIA). Even with the predicted cold weather, this is a solid prop to bet tonight.

DE’VON ACHANE RUSHING ATTEMPTS over 10 (+120): If the Dolphins are to go down swinging, then they need to get their most dynamic RB the ball more than 10 times.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & GAME PROPS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.