Running hot, baby! A huge output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games and I believe the best week of my NFL DFS career. We absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots and shoutout to our boy, Pickett’s Picks for a massive takedown on the MNF slate! Congratulations, buddy! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 29th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 54 points (the highest on the slate). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards, 2.8 passing touchdowns and a little bit more rushing equity than usual with no Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start.
Honestly, I’m not incredibly high on Lamar Jackson after his career game on Monday night, but if he’s going to be 30-40% owned in cash games, it’s hard not to lock-button Lamar Jackson in a 52-point total game against the Chargers. The model loves Lamar Jackson, grading him over a 3.2x value (in comparison to his salary) and I will not argue with you if Jackson is your QB of choice in your cash games. My personal feeling is that this is more of a slower-paced, running game-plan for Baltimore as the Chargers’ bleed production to opposing rushing attacks (worst in the NFL at ~5.6 yards per carry allowed).
If you prefer the salary-relief, QB route, look no further than Taylor Heinicke. We spoke about the crazy-high total in this game when discussing Mahomes and the same situation applies to Mr. Heinicke, except the matchup is even better than Patrick Mahomes’ as the Chiefs’ grade 31st in pass-defense DVOA. As much as I don’t really trust Taylor Heinicke (which is a huge factor in a cash game lineup), this Kansas City defense is non-existent and shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Washington passing attack. Like Mahomes, Heinicke also offers a bit of a higher floor with his legs.
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
Ekeler is riding one helluva hot streak and I don’t see that stopping this weekend against Baltimore who’s given up an average of six receptions per game to opposing running backs. We don’t expect Ekeler to smash via the run, but his dual-threat ability to fill up the fantasy box scores make him 100% cash viable in this high-totaled matchup against the Ravens.
We always want to use Vegas as a guideline when building our NFL DFS lineups and there’s no better positive gamescript for a running back than being a double-digit, home favorite. Well, that narrative surrounds our boy, Jonathan Taylor this week as they host the Houston Texans and their 30th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA). If you’re not locking in Michael Pittman, roll with Jonathan Taylor who currently has a 100+ all-purpose yard player prop in addition to (-200) odds to score a touchdown. There’s not many safer plays at the running back position than Jonathan Taylor, despite all-pro guard, Quenton Nelson on IR.
No Nick Chubb, all systems go for Kareem Hunt who should be primed up for another blow-up performance against Arizona’s run defense giving up over 5.4 yards per carry to opposing backs. Lock him in!
With Damien Williams on the COVID-19 list, it’s go-time for rookie running back, Khalil Herbert. We’ll likely all need the value at one of the running back positions and it’s very likely 50% of the NFL DFS cash game field locks in Herbert… let’s do the same.
Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Darrell Henderson Jr., Chubba Hubbard, Darrel Williams, Antonio Gibson
It’s Davante Adams, if you can afford him, you play him. Ridiculous pricing over at FanDuel, lol.
Like Adams, DJ Moore has a borderline slate-leading, 30% expected target share in the AETY Model projections. We love picking on this Minnesota secondary on a weekly basis and it’s yet to let us down (outside of Baker Mayfield under-throwing Odell Beckham multiple times when we locked him in a couple weeks ago) as we always want to attack any wideout who sees Bashaud Breeland 40% of the time, or more, in coverage. Robby Anderson is also in a nice spot here but I cannot recommend playing him in cash, whatsoever.
Get exposure this this Kansas City / Washington game! The AETY Model currently grades Terry McLaurin as the 6th overall value play at the wide receiver position and assuming the non-participant in Friday’s practice was strictly precautionary, it’s wheels up for McLaurin against this sieve of a Kansas City secondary.
We discussed the high-total in this matchup in the Ekeler write-up and it has me licking my chops to go back to the well with Keenan Allen in a matchup against Baltimore slot-cornerback, Tavon Young. Young has been brutal in coverage thus far through 2021 and has his toughest matchup to date here against Keenan Allen. It looks like Mike Williams is truly questionable for this matchup and Allen would be a cash game staple for me if he’s ruled out, but having said that, I’m 100% interested in Keenan Allen even if Mike Williams is a go. This matchup is pristine and we’re due for a Keenan Allen breakout game in 2021. In addition, he also grades out as the #1 value at the wide receiver position on the AETY Model (with Mike Williams projected as ACTIVE).
Simply way too cheap for a clear-cut, WR1 against a Houston Texans pass-defense that grades 30th in DVOA. If you’re not playing Jonathan Taylor, load up Michael Pittman and get exposure to this Colts’ offense who grades 4th on the slate in total offense equity on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, exclusive to Win Daily Sports.
Another nice value would be the Patriots’ wideout, Jakobi Meyers. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of his but the volume in the passing attack is hard to ignore and this matchup against Dallas should bode well for the Patriots in a “catch-up” style gamescript. I prefer Pittman here at this price, but Meyers’ is 100% in play for cash games, but I would only recommend him on DraftKings in a full-point PPR format.
Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Mecole Hardman
Way too cheap on DraftKings with the amount of value that has opened up on this slate via injuries. If you can afford Travis Kelce, you lock him in and expect a massive “get-right” game here against the Washington Football Team and their majority-zone defense.
What a game for Mark Andrews and the Ravens’ passing attack on Monday Night! Surprise to no one, the recency bias could not be higher for Mark Andrews and for good reason, the DFS sites butchered his price-point. As much as the GPP mentality in me says to fade Andrews here, the Chargers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends. This matchup is sexy and the high total is sexy. I’m fine if you want to eat the chalk here with Andrews in both cash games and GPP builds.
Like the Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs bleed production to opposing tight ends (27th in TE pass defense DVOA). As much as I hate “punt” tight-ends (also pat on my back for the Dan Arnold call last week, hehe), this is an excellent spot for Seals-Jones in a projected shootout against the Chiefs. Seals-Jones may not get a ton of volume, but he tied for first in red-zone targets in Week 5 and should offer plenty of red-zone upside as they go back and forth with Kansas City’s offense all Sunday long.
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.
Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5
Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH
It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.
The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.
The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.
I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.
As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.
Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber
Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3
Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH
I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.
Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.
I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.
With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson
Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
