draftkings mlb dfs picks

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

We have a pair of split slate 6 game MLB DFS slates today on DraftKings and some solid prize pools, but at least on the early slate we seriously lack for the big-name pitching we typically covet in our MLB DFS Picks.

We also get the dreaded double-header garbage with Toronto/Kansas City being the first game of a 7 inning double-header slate for them on Saturday which really changes how you approach that game strategically.

For me it takes it from a game I would have argued was a high upside stack, to one now I can convince myself to roll with Steven Matz ($9.7K). As a Mets fan, I am happy for Matz but this price is some SERIOUS sticker shock for someone who we saw routinely flash upside in New York and then fizzle out.

There are a few things at play here – first, with this being a double-header we could see a watered down or thinned our Royals lineup opposing Matz which would add to his appeal. Secondly, we have seen a change in approach through the first two games for Matz where he has focused more on generating ground balls (55% clip), with his fastball velocity ticked up and a higher reliance on his slider and change-up than his time in New York.

Now the red flags are there – it is a two-game sample size and Matz has a 95% left on base rate which is WILDLY unstainable. Frankly, if this game was 9 innings and Matz was going to be chalk – I would have argued for a Royals stack for leverage. The line-up here will be key for Matz the projected starting 9 for KC has just a 16% K rate so it could seriously limit his K upside but this is also a line-up with a 50%+ GB rate which plays into Matz strengths and could give him another path to strong run suppresion. Stay tuned for the lineup for KC!

If I see the KC line-up is “the usual” and if Matz ends up being chalk – I think we can easily pivot up to Sonny Gray ($9.3K). Gray makes his first start of the season with no pitch count limits expected and his metrics of 30% K rates and 12% SS rates from 2020 would put him on par with any ace level arm you can find. Assuming we hear nothing about pitch count limits to contradict what has already been reported, Gray would be an ideal pivot off Matz.

My favorite arm on this slate however is Indians RHP Triston McKenzie ($8.7K) and if you are unfamiliar with him, I suggest you scroll through the Pitching Ninja account for some highlights because his stuff is FILTH.

Of all the arms on this slate, McKenzie has the highest K rate at 33.7% and swinging strike rate at 12.7% since the start of last season. McKenzie has been death to RHB in his early career with a 40% K rate and this Reds line-up today is projected to have 4 plus the pitcher spot to attack.

One of the reasons I think you can easily pay up for a duo out of Matz/Gray/McKenzie today on DK is the super cheap pricing in arguably the best hitting spot on the day in Oakland/Detroit.

With cold weather and winds blowing in in nearly every other game, this game in Oakland will be played in 75 degree and sunny skies with the wind blowing out – giving them a solid advantage over the other hitting environments.

Detroit RHP Casey Mize is talented but he has also been hit hard early, especially by left-handed batters – to the tune of a .289 ISO mark and while Oakland is typically right-handed heavy – they now have the ability to produce more balance with Matt Olson, Mitch Moreland, Jed Lowrie and Seth Brown.

Now every single lefty bat mentioned there has a .230+ ISO mark against RHP since the start of 2020 and while it pains me to write up Jed Lowrie, we need to mention it is his birthday today and narratives always trump personal bias. Lowrie birthday bomb incoming!

The Detroit side of this game is also one I want to attack with LHP Cole Irvin on the mound who has given up a tidy little 55% hard contact rate in his career with just a 6% swinging strike rate. That lack of swing and miss stuff makes him easy to go power hunting against with cheap Tigers exposure in a game stack.

So to summarize – I am going with McKenzie and either Matz/Gray at SP for my MLB DFS picks on the early DK slate with an Oakland/Detroit game stack as a core part of my GPP builds today as you can anchor to the few high K arms on the slate with a powerful and cheap game stack.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

The main slate MLB DFS picks for pitching are an odd conundrum in that we have elite arms like Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish but the fact they oppose dangerous Dodgers/Padres lineups makes it a question of talent or match-up?

From a pure metrics and match-up perspective, is it weird to say the best GPP strategy would be to take the arms in the Baltimore/Texas game?

It is not like I woke up this morning thinking – man, I cannot wait to play Dean Kremer and Dane Dunning but if you took the names out of it for a second, just look at it this way.

You have two arms with 25% plus K rates, 10% swinging strike rates and face two projected high K lineups – the spit is there but Vegas having this game with a 9 IRT tells you there is risk involved.

Dunning has been exceptional to start the year with a 33% K rate but the one red flag I have here is that he has gone just 70 and 71 pitches in these first two games. Kremer meanwhile gets the best K spot match-up wise against Texas but he is pitching on 3 days rest after throwing 54 pitches in his last start. Would it shock me if these arms got strong K outputs and delivered solid DFS outings? Not at all. Would it shock me if they both got their teeth kicked in Corbin/Ponce De Leon style? Also no. Risk and reward for this two.

The boring route may be to go to Milwaukee and attack the arms in the Brewers/Pirates game with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.

Anderson ($7.2K) does what he always does – generates a nearly 60% GB rate, pitches to contact and simply gets by. Now these are not the guys I typically want in MLB DFS GPP play but the Pirates line-up that opposes him is what pushes me there as they have a 50% GB mark and .130 team ISO in their projected lineup against LHP.

Cahill ($6.9K) on the other side of this game gets the high K spot we covet with a 30% K rate and 11% SS rate since 2020 going up against a Milwaukee line-up that has a 28% K rate with Christian Yelich sidelined.

I think you can opt to go a few different routes here based on ownership – Cahill and Dunning together both offer you the K upside we want/need in GPP’s but if either are “too risky” for you – I do think Brett Anderson is a viable, albeit boring pivot. Although – on days we have played guys who have gotten us negative 15 & 20 DK points – boring does not sound so bad!

The offense for me on this slate really is what is going to carry us and I think the best pure spot to attack is the Angels and Twins.

Matt Shoemaker has given up a .200+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 46% hard contact rate since 2020 and so I think the Angels stack becomes the priority here with the big bats of Trout/Ohtani/Walsh but I also love the salary savings guys like Anthony Bemboom and Luis Reningfo present at nearly minimum price at C and 2B/SS.

Jose Quintana is a good left handed arm who limits right-handed power.

That is what the metrics say and I believe them.

Then you remember this is the Minnesota Twins and while Quintana can take a heavy ground ball approach to limit hard contact, there is arguably no better right-handed heavy team than the Twins when fully healthy.

Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson sit firmly in the middle of this lineup with Mitch Garver is an elite catching spend-up – all three of which have mashed LHP to the tune of .250+ ISO marks since the start of 2019. We need to watch the injury news to see if Byron Buxton is able to return as he nurses a hamstring injury because if he is, that .462 ISO mark this season against lefties stands out in a big way.

The main slate is all about letting the bats win it for me and this “late night hammer” has the bats to do just that!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This is a strong split slate for our MLB DFS picks and I think we can make some serious noise in GPP’s. We need to watch ownership and lineups as Saturday’s can mean some funky decisions and give us value we never thought we would have!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

After a strong Monday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots that was built around the top strikeout arms and an Oakland A’s stack that saw our members hitting green by the end of the night – we are back with another super pitching rich slate here on Tuesday.

The top end of the slate is LOADED with three elite arms in Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, and Lucas Giolito and we have some interesting mid-range arms with high K ability in Luis Castillo, Brandon Woodruff and Kevin Gausman.

What I think this lends itself to is much of what we saw yesterday from an ownership perspective where folks went high/low with Glasnow/Peralta and opt to pick one from the high dollar spend and then use the strong mid-range for their SP2. I also think that at first glance, the bats on DraftKings are priced up a tick from yesterday which is even more reason why I think going balanced with arms will be popular so that people can afford the bats they covet.

With so many good arms on the slate – I think it will become obvious that the two worst arms are Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Gibson and it will push ownership in these high/low pitchers builds to include Dodgers and Rays stacks alongside them.

Because here is the thing – if everyone goes with a high/low arm strategy to afford the Rays or Dodgers stacks – can we find a way to go “double aces” and pair two of Bieber/Bauer/Giolito and still find an offense we like with the roughly $3.7K per batter we have left?

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Double Aces Strategy

I really believe we will have the opportunity to get absolute studs arms like Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer and Lucas Giolito at ownership discounts tonight and I am here for it.

Bieber has been absolutely electric to start the season with a 45% K rate and 22% swinging strike rate and with 12 K’s in each of his first two starts, his $10.7K price tag may not be expensive enough.

Because he is the priority for me, I likely pair him with Bauer instead of his mound opponent in Giolito so I can chase the win bonus for both my arms. Listen Bauer has been absolutely phenomenal in his own right, with a 40% K rate and 10K’s in each of his first two starts – one in Coors and one in Oakland. Tonight he gets that same brutal Rockies offense but he gets them in LA and I think at $10.2K on DK – his upside is every bit that of Bieber’s due to the easier match-up.

Now here is where it gets fun – if you go double aces – what stack can you find at $3.6-$3.7K per batter to make it all work?

There is a game stack tonight that has the perfect blend of power, upside and salary balance that I think gives us this path to double aces and that is the Astros/Tigers.

The Astros have a 5.2 IRT as of this writing which trails only the Dodgers, as they will take in LHP Matthew Boyd – a talented lefty but one who has struggled with right-handed power to the tune of a .273 ISO and 40% hard contact rate since the start of last season.

The Astros present a brutal challenge in that they have a team ISO of .200 against LHP since the start of last season and have 5 hitters in the projected lineup with .215 or higher ISO marks as individuals.

Boyd faced a similar challenge with the Twins last time out and was superb, striking out 8 batters over 7 innings and allowing just 3 runs. The key here for the Astros is to get to Boyd and get to the Tigers bullpen which is dead last in the league with a 7+ ERA, allowing 32 runs in just 39 innings including a league-leading 12 HR’s. That my friends is where the stack for Houston is going to pay big-time dividends.

The Astros are pricey – especially if you want the core plays – but I think the way you get there is actually by game stacking this spot and using the cheap Tigers bats on the other side against RHP Jake Odorizzi.

The Tigers are a powerful offense, ranked 3rd in all of baseball with 14 HR’s, and against RHP they rank top 10 in all of baseball in team ISO. There is some sneaky power in this line-up and Odorizzi is a fly ball arm that has given up 40%+ HC rates to both sides of the plate since 2019 so I think the path is there to use Detroit to take down GPP’s.

We get some serious salary relief with guys like Nomar Mazara ($2.2K) hitting in the middle of the Tigers order and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Win Daily Discord Darling – Akil Baddoo ($3.8K) who “Dercerto” has been pimping all season long to our subs!

The Tigers are the road team – meaning we get guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats – and with this being Odorizzi’s first start of the year, the expectation is a short outing before giving way to the pen. As such, I would not focus as much on splits or attacking Odorizzi and instead of finding the mini-stack, you want to work around the big-time Houston bats.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

As an MLB DFS player there are certain slates where I play it straight and ignore ownership and others where I let ownership dictate my GPP thought process.

Today is a slate where I think we will see very chalky builds with one ace and one mid-range arm to afford a higher dollar stack. If that is the case as the day unfolds, I think finding a path to true double aces – taking two of the Bieber, Bauer, Giolito trio – while working with a cheap Astros/Tigers game stack could give you an ownership edge with clear power upside!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday Slate Breakdown

We open up this ten-game MLB DFS slate on Sunday and the most pressing issue is weather concerns as the games in New York, Baltimore and Toronto (Florida) could all see games get wiped out due to rain. It looks like the Mets/Marlins and Jays/Angels are at the biggest risk of a PPD so this could become an 8 game slate before too long!

The other concern is trying to find some pitching we actually like today, as Kevin McCallister once said when laying eyes on his brother’s girlfriend – “woof.”

Now, one thing we need to watch for is how lineups ultimately are pushed out and yesterday was a great example. When the Mets lineup was released with 4 LHB in it, we talked in Discord how Trevor Rogers became in play and all he was going out and outdueled Jacob deGrom – if we get some watered down Sunday lineups, our pitching picks may gain more clarity.

Anecdotally, I noticed the pricing on this slate, especially as it relates to the bats, seems incredibly inflated and the price hike on offense at least today will not hurt us as I think paying down for pitching is the most optimal route regardless.

Adrian Morejon ($7.7K) is arguably my favorite arm on this slate as his combination of electric raw talent and match-up against the Rangers, could result in serious ceiling potential. Morejon has flashed elite K ability throughout the minor leagues and in his brief major league career and the more the Padres stretch him out, the more his ceiling will come into play this season.

A match-up with a Texas team that has a 31% K rate against LHP this season and as this chart below from Statmuse points out, left-handed starters have routinely seen strong DFS outings against this K heavy Texas team this season.

Morejon is fairly priced on DK at $7.7K but at $5.9K on FanDuel – goodness, what a steal. With the K upside and the pitch count expected to continually rise, this is a spot I think we get on early while the price discount still applies.

Daniel Ponce De Leon ($6.7K) is another high K talent in a great K match-up as he faces a Brewers team that has struck out 27.1% of the time against RHP this season and a projected lineup with a massive 29% K rate since the start of 2020 against RHP.

What is interesting about PDL (I am not typing Ponce De Leon every time), is that his splits are a total reverse as he gives up an ISO mark .100 higher against RHB and his K rate drops 10%. So if Milwaukee goes lefty heavy as expected, PDL has a .106 ISO mark and 33% K rate against that side of the plate since 2019.

Staying in this game is my first stack and that is the St. Louis Cardinals RHB against LHP Brett Anderson. Let’s break this down simply – Anderson struggles against RHB to the tune of a .230 ISO mark allowed since the start of last season and the Cardinals are basically a right-handed 1-8 at this point.

Anderson relies on his sinker nearly 40% of the time against RHB and guess who just happens to hammer that pitch type from lefties? Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado – that is who.

I would argue those two bats are priority for me today and I can mix and match fringe pieces like Edman, DeJong and OF’s like Dean/Carlson for salary relief or as add-ons to a Cardinals stack.

The other team I love today and one that correlates well with the Cardinals is the Kansas City Royals against RHP Dylan Cease. Cease since the start of 2020 has been an ISO surrendering machine, with a .254 mark to LHB and .210 to RHB and when you have a single digit SS rate and a sub 20% K rate, that means people make contact often and they do it without fear or remorse.

Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield are elite plays and make for optimal plays because they can fill in my C/2B spots but the guy that really catches my eye today is Jorge Soler. Cease basically throws his slider 50% of the time against RHB and Soler’s data against that pitch type is off the charts – a .265 ISO with a 52% hard contact rate average distance traveled of 342 feet.

Throw the slider Dylan – I dare you. Home run call incoming.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

I have to say, initially I hated this slate but the more I dig into it the more I really like it for MLB DFS GPP play. We have so much risk at SP that we can really dig deep and take chances and I think Morejon/Ponce De Leon make for incredible high K targets that are cheap enough we can go heavy HR hunting with a Cardinals/Royals stack!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

Play Jacob deGrom.

The end.

Fine! I will put more effort into it than that.

Listen, this 5 game early MLB DFS slate could get really dicey with weather concerns looming in Chicago and St. Louis that could make this a three-game slate if the rain has any say – but what we know is we have Jacob deGrom ($10.3K) as our SP1 pitching at home in Citi Field against the Marlins.

Jake is the best arm in baseball, the best arm on this short slate and there is simply no reason to fade him. The question really becomes who is our SP2 on DraftKings and I think pairing deGOAT with Michael Pineda ($8.6K) is the best pairing for both cash and GPP’s due to their combined K upside as they rank 1-2 on this slate in terms of swinging-strike rate since the start of 2020.

Taking this duo and doubling down by stacking the offenses that support them with the Mets and Twins is a route Picks and Pivots has gone to many times already this early season and while we have been burned, I am ready for them to make it up to me today (or be hurt again – either or).

The Twins face a left-hander in Yusei Kikuchi who has given up a .230 ISO mark to RHB since the start of 2019 and this Twins line-up is LOADED with power against southpaws. Nelson Cruz, Kyle Garlick, Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano all have .300+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019 and while guys like Cruz/Garver are pricey, the fact you can balance them out with a $2.4K Garlick makes this an easy stack to fit around deGrom today.

Now for the Mets bats. Listen – they have simply not produced early this season for us in DFS and we know they tend to go MIA on days that deGrom pitches. However, if you simply look at the metrics against LHP Trevor Rogers, a pitcher with a .271 ISO and 54% hard contact rate ro RHB – how do we not have interest in a Mets right-handed stack today?

Pete Alonso and JD Davis have .300 and .200 ISO marks against LHP respectively since 2019 and I would argue Francisco Lindor is a priority play at a wildly weak SS position.

I mentioned this the other day in our Discord, but the Mets/Twins correlate really nicely on DK as well as the stacks/positions play off each other really well. Lock in Garver at C, Alonso at 1B, Lindor at SS, and Cruz/Garlick in the OF and your core is off and running!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

The Main Slate looks like it will have its share of dicey weather as well with the worst of it being in the Angels/Blue Jays game. The other dicey part of this slate is the pitching as we really do not have obvious lock-in aces and my guess is Chris Paddack becomes the chalk du jour against the Rangers after what Joe Musgrove did last night.

This leads me to a slate where I think the bats are a priority and I work my way back into my two arms on DK, with a focus on punts and I think we have two interesting ones in the Cincy/Arizona game in Jeff Hoffman and Riley Smith.

Hoffman is someone I wrote up his first turn against St. Louis and all he did was drop 24 DK points on the back of 6K’s and 1 ER allowed in 5 innings of work. Hoffman is actually a good pitcher who has had the back of his baseball card skewed by years of pitching in Coors Field but he has solid swing and miss stuff with a mid 20% K rate and he has tweaked his pitching attack to rely more on his slider now outside of Coors Field where it will break as intended.

Smith will get the spot start after a 90 pitch relief outing on April 3rd and while the Reds offense has been scorching to start the season this is still a line-up that has 5 hitters of the 8 projected with 25% or higher K rates since the start of last season against RHP.

On a slate where I do not see pitchers “winning it for you” – I think we take these two cheap arms with Larry Vanover behind the plate who is a massive pitcher’s umpire, calling 15% more K’s than the average umpire.

That allows us to pay for bats and boy oh boy do I hope we can use this Angels/Blue Jays game tonight because the bats are going to feast.

Steven Matz was brilliant in his first start but I am here to tell you as a Mets fan who has watched him, Matz is great when he faces lefty heavy teams and a HR derby bullpen arm when he has to face a right-handed heavy squad. The Angels are literally his worst possible match-up because they are SO right-handed heavy. Since the start of last season, Matz is giving up a .377 ISO to RHB and with Trout, Rendon and Upton in the heart of that line-up – oh boy, this could get ugly. This is the 5 man stack I would prioritize tonight and I love the idea of game stacking here.

We talked about this a bit in Discord yesterday but game stack in MLB DFS is a great GPP philosophy. If the Angels offense goes off tonight, you know what you are going to then see? The Angels will throw their secondary arms out of the pen after LHP Jose Quintana and it then becomes a spot where the Blue Jays bats can rack up DFS points against the worst opposing arms.

Marcus Semien and Vlad Guerrero Jr. are the two bats I would prioritize here because they have 50%+ hard contact rates against LHP since 2020 which sets them up well against the starter in Quintana so they can go early damage and then potentially get the late inning game stack life in a game I anticipate will be a GPP winning core spot tonight!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

We have two wildly different slates today with a pitching dominant early slate and a pitching scarce main slate. In both cases we have weather to watch but I think we can navigate them both with strong builds with power and GPP upside!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown

We get a split slate MLB DFS Friday with a 3 game early slate appetizer that actually looks at first glance to have some interesting paths and DraftKings makes it appealing with some strong GPP prize pools.

The pitching decision for me on this early slate likely comes down to the three at the top – Walker Buehler, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto.

Buehler is the class of this slate from a metrics perspective has his 31% K rate and 13% SS rate since the start of 2020 can attest. Kluber’s metrics are solid but his mid 70’s pitch count in the opener and continuous velocity drop throughout Spring Training and into the start of the year makes me really nervous and instead pushes me to Cueto as an SP2.

Cueto was dominant in his first start against Seattle with 7K’s and a 15% SS rate and now gets the Rockies in San Francisco. This Rockies lineup is one we have talked about that we would attack every time out if they were not in Coors Field and here we are – first game out of Coors and going to the polar opposite ballpark in The Bay – this sets up for a great spot again for Cueto.

The tricky part on this slate is the pricing for bats as there is seemingly little value and the bats are priced up which makes mixing and matching stacks a challenge – but I think the answer stays in San Francisco. The Giants will throw an almost entirely right-handed lineup at LHP Austin Gomber and that could spell disaster as the Giants projected lineup has a near .300 TEAM TOTAL ISO against lefties since the start of 2020. Seriously – the whole team!

Gomber is a low K arm who went full Ankiel on his first turn through the rotation with 7 walks in 3 innings of work. Now walks in of themselves are not a sexy DFS stat but this is where stacking is key – walks turn into baserunners, turns into long innings and crooked numbers and we can do it without necessarily counting on long balls to get us fantasy production. Keep the chain moving and let the right-handed hitters tee off!

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the prime stack on the slate against RHP Joe Ross even with Cody Bellinger unlikely to suit up and questions on whether Mookie Betts will return from back tightness which forced him to miss last game. Now this does open up some value as Zach McKinstry ($3.1K) will slide into the starting lineup again and his 2B/OF eligibility on DK makes him an elite option due to his flexibility in your builds.

My two favorite bats on the Dodgers are Max Muncy and Corey Seager as they simply hammer Joe Ross’ primary offering to lefties – the sinker. Since 2019, this duo has a .476 and .302 ISO mark against that pitch type and so I am calling my shot with HR’s from this Dodger duo today!

The Early Slate is solid – I think we have enough pitching options to feel good about our builds and the Giants/Dodgers correlated stacks provide enough value to attack the two best offenses on the early slate in my mind.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

The Main Slate MLB DFS slate is basically a repeat for nearly every arm available as their second turns through the rotation are largely rematches of their first turns which will make the game log watchers life that much easier! The issue with simply assuming a repeat is these offenses now get a second look at the same arm and a chance to make immediate adjustments so we cannot simply assume the past repeats itself!

The over arching thought on pitching is that we get a ton of sneaky good strikeout arms and they are all very fairly priced – so I think it makes for a slate where the builds will be strong top to bottom as a result of the pricing on DK.

My pitcher pool will likely consist of Zach Plesac, Lance McCullers, Joe Musgrove and Tyler Mahle and that was before I even glimpsed at Adam’s Starting Rotation which essentially echoed those choices as high swing and miss arms. Lock and load my friends.

Personally, I love the McCullers/Mahle combination and what it opens up from a salary perspective by going high/low with our SP1 and SP2. Both guys were swing and miss machines in their first starts and I think we can go right back to the well here today.

For stacks, there are two that jump out to me – one I think will be popular and one I think may be the sneakier one. The Blue Jays take on LHP Andrew Heaney who has given up a .210 ISO and 48% HC rate to right-handed batters since the start of 2020 and this Toronto lineup is LOADED with right-handed power as they have 6 batters with .200+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019.

Heaney relies heavily on his sinker to RHB, nearly 60% of the time and Marcus Semien and Vladdy Daddy have .300 and .420 ISO marks respectively against that pitch type.

The other stack today I love is the left-handed Indians bats against RHP Julio Teheran. Since 2019, Teheran is giving up a .220 ISO mark to LHB with a near 50% fly ball rate and hard contact rate – meaning guys like Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario and Josh Naylor all get massive power potential with the splits in their favor.

I love the idea of going with a 5-3 stack of Blue Jays and Indians power bats tonight as we can capture a ton of HR equity with the splits favorability with enough salary savings to still pay for two elite K arms.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

What better way to spend a Thursday than a 1 PM EST MLB DFS Main Slate and the first round of the Masters – this is what life should always be! The only downside today, is we have some weather concerns that could make this slate a bit dicey as my friend Mark Paquette outlines below.

Now the tricky part of this slate is that the two biggest weather concerns also happen to be the two late games and where the two best arms on the slate are in Jose Berrios and Corbin Burnes.

Berrios and Burnes are the clear-cut best arms on this slate and if the weather was not a concern, I am not sure there would even be a need to look elsewhere. They rank 1-2 in K rate and SS% on this slate and after combining for 23 K’s in their first start against each other, well, they simply have upside that no other pair of arms on this slate has.

The pricing on both these arms under $10K is super soft and the fact remains, on DraftKings, you can lock in both and you still have $3.8K per player for your bats which is MORE than enough.

Honestly the only real risk in my mind is weather but assuming we get the all clear, I have a hard time not taking the clear path today.

Speaking of the clear path – what if I told you – you could stack the two best arms on the slate and easily afford to then stack Coors Field.

Listen, there is nothing sneaky about it but we have a game in Coors Field with an 11 run total, with two pitchers in Merrill Kelly and Jon Gray who both gave up 40% or higher hard contact rates on the season last year – ranking as 2 of the 3 worst arms on this slate in that metric behind only Matt Harvey.

The interesting thing about this game as well, if Ketel Marte sits after leaving last night with an injury, the hitters are basically priced with Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon up top and then – everyone else is well value city.

I am not trying to be purposely boring but go ahead and try it – lock in Berrios and Burnes and game stack Coors Field. It should not be doable but it is and man, it is hard not to take the clear path on this one assuming the weather holds out.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Transparency in DFS writing is critical and it is one of the reasons I love the team we have at Win Daily Sports – we play what we preach and we win or lose with our community. That transparency sometimes is boring – like today – listen, I would LOVE to give you some sneaky low-owned play that makes me look like a genius but I am not sure we have to get cute today.

We can literally take the two best arms on the slate and game stack the best hitting environment in Coors Field.

You ever hear people say to utilize the KISS strategy?

Keep it simple stupid.

Yeah, maybe today is the day we roll with that.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!