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NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 5

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. Week 4 was a bit of a bust and I’m quite pissed on how we missed on so many players that I loved, but we will right the ship here in Week 5. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

  1. DeShaun Watson – Absolutely in love with DeShaun Watson yet again for Week 5. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and Bill O’Brien is no longer calling the plays. At 5-10% ownership, I’ll roll out a lot of Watson this week.

    I love the Jaguars side of this ballgame as well so feel free to game-stack this one as many wats as you can.
  2. Kyler Murray – Kyler is going to come in sub-5% ownership… Do we need to say more? I don’t love any Jets coming back on the other side to game stack it, but you could do worse than punting a Chris Herndon or Jeff Smith. I smell a 3-passing touchdown game from Kyler (in addition to his rushing upside). One of those TD’s will be to a low-owned Christian Kirk.
  3. Gardner Minshew – Someone pinch me, I never write-up Gardner Minshew, but he looks damn good on the AETY Model this weekend. I love this games ability to shootout and go well over the high total 54 points. I’ll have more exposure to this game with Watson, but I’m going to have plenty of Minshew and these pass catchers as well.

    Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

  1. James Robinson – More exposure to this HOU/JAX game is something I’m going to be very interested in. Houston’s defense is giving up ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and also giving up plenty of receptions to them. Robinson is a 3-down back in a great matchup in a game that I love to stack up.
  2. James Conner – Philadelphia’s run defense ranks right there in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense DVOA, so it’s not like this is a matchup made in heaven. But, the AETY Model really likes Conner’s ability to rack up yardage here and he’s likely to be 5-8% owned on this slate. If you’re looking for a pivot off of CE/Hunt/Elliott, Conner has plenty of upside at 70% less ownership than the trio above.
  3. Josh Jacobs – Kansas City’s run defense is not good with or without Chris Jones being healthy as they rank 27th in run DVOA. If Gruden has half a brain, he’s going to ride Jacobs into the ground to keep Mahomes and this is explosive offense off the field as long as possible. Look for Jacobs to have a 20+ point fantasy outing with 3-5 receptions. If he can get in the box, he’ll be a great addition to your GPP lineups.
  4. Antonio Gibson – He’s $5K on DraftKings. I’ll need a lot of savings for most of my builds and Gibson is a player with a very unique skillset. If he can finally get some passing catching work with Mr. Dump-off, Kyle Allen, Gibson’s floor is realistically 3X value on this low salary.

    Honorable Mention: Todd Gurley

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins – a 10% owned Hopkins is all I should need to say. The Jets’ secondary is awful and Hopkins target share is second-to-nobody on this slate.
  2. Tyreek Hill – I love to writeup speedy pass catchers against the Las Vegas secondary. Hill is projected in the top-5 for receiving yards this weekend in the AETY Model and should realistically be 15-20% owned in NFL DFS GPP tournaments… not 5-10%.
  3. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Your weekly pick on Nickell Robey-Coleman addition to the GPP article. Schuster is way too talented and owns a massive size advantage over Robey-Coleman. With Darius Slay spending most of his day on the outside with Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster should be in a sneaky big day.
  4. DJ Chark – More exposure to this JAX/HOU shootout. Bradley Roby started the season strongly against Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown, but I saw enough last week when Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen did whatever they wanted in the Minnesota passing attack. Chark is a main piece of my JAX/HOU game-stacks.

    Laviska Shenault is also in an incredible spot against Vernon Hargreaves. I’ll have a ton of him as well this weekend for the salary relief and high-floor.
  5. Devante Parker – This is a game with a high total that no one seems to be talking about. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K (on DraftKings). That is something I look for every single week and this is a matchup where he can succeed in against a depleted 49ers’ secondary. You can mini-game stack him up with Kittle on the other side.

    Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Sammy Watkins, Isaiah Ford, Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  1. Travis Kelce – he’s the best PPR tight-end in the NFL and absolutely dominates the Raiders, historically. While everyone jams in CEH, you can pivot to the Chiefs’ passing attack for some differentiation in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
  2. Darren Waller – On the other side of your Chiefs stacks, roll out Waller. Hell, you can go double tight-end with Kelce if you’d like. The Raiders are 11-point underdogs here and will be chasing points which bodes very well for their top receiver, Darren Waller.
  3. Hayden Hurst – Everyone wants to stack up CAR/ATL, but no one is playing Hayden Hurst? Julio Jones is likely to miss this game and that’s going to open up plenty of opportunity for Hayden Hurst. He’s going to score a touchdown on Sunday.
  4. Eric Ebron – The Eagles are giving up over 18 DraftKings points to opposing tight-ends. Ebron is a red-zone monster and should easily find the box in this matchup at a very low price point and little-to-no ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

    Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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PGA

2/19 DFS Diamonds: With DFS Pro Javi on PGA

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 2/20 Tournament for DFS PGA.   I’m running a similar format to Sia and want to provide some insight into my 5-10 builds this weekend. This is focus around DraftKings ONLY.

10k and above – 2/19 DFS

Rory Mcllroy – Rory is one of the best golfers in the game right now and is ranked #1 in the world. He has FIVE straight top 5 finishes in his last FIVE events. It’s 5 for 5 in top 5 and my number one golfer this weekend.

Hideki Matsuyama – He has four top 15 finishes in his past 5 events and is also one of the hottest golfers in the game. He is due for a win and in top form. He does have two top 25 finishes in the 3 times he’s played here and ranks top 10 in all golfing categories across the board. He has struggled in putting and is more middle of the pack in regards to putting, but still locking him in a ton of lineups.

9k and above – 2/19 DFS

Adam Scott – Rule 1 in PGA DFS is don’t play the winner from the previous week, but I’m breaking this rule this weekend. Adam Scott is notorious for winning back to back events in the past and is in tip top form to win this tournament. If the broom putter is back out and he continues his dominant play, he could easily win this tournament once again. I like the form that Bryson DeChambeau, but his poor course history here worries me.

Xander Schauffele – As Sia mentioned, Xander’s form and specifically his ball-striking have been great.  This is what I’m targeting plus he ranks top 10 in all golfing categories for me and has great course history!

8k and above – 2/19 DFS

Louis Oosthuizen – Listen, this guy is destroying the European tour and I’m riding the hot streak here. He is on fire and I just can’t fade him until I see regression.

Paul Casey – Again stealing Sia’s thunder, but “Great course history (3rd, 12th, and 166th) but recent history hasn’t been great which should keep ownership lower than many of the sexier names in this range like Sergio, Morikawa, Woodland, and Bubba, all of whom I will be fading.” His ATG and putting has been poor, but he’s been doing well in his past two tournaments. He needs to avoid the one day debacles that he continues to run into. No bueno if he does!

Bubba Watson – Bubba…. OOOOOOO Bubba. He missed two straight five foot putts to miss the cut and broke my heart. He cost me thousands, but let’s move on! He is going to have low ownership because of last weekend and his course history here. I like him as a sneaky bounce back play this week.

7k and above – 2/19 DFS

Abraham Ancer – The Golf Narrative hasnt worked much this year, but Ancer is in top form and even though he has poor course history, he’s one of two Mexicans on the course. I believe he will bounce back because of his recent poor experience here and he has been playing unbelievably. He might be higher owned this weekend, but I love the play.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – This is far from a sexy play and might be more owned than I want him to be, but he has great course history and he’s similar to Bubba Watson in regards to playing very, very well in courses that he normally plays well at. With multiple top 20 finishes here, I like RCB as another bounce back candidate with a top 10 finish here!

6k and above – 2/19 DFS

Erik Van Rooyen – He burned us last weekend with missing the cut on day 2 after a solid day 1. He’s been “meh” here in the past, but he’s playing some good golf lately, but his approach to green is worrisome. Given the small greens, he might be in a better spot, but this is a riskier play in my eyes.

Carlos Ortiz – I’m once again stealing Sia’s notes on this…. sorry Sia! “Ortiz is from Mexico but has no competitive history on this course.  While that’s not ideal, he has made the cut in 4 out of his last 5 events and that includes top 30 finishes in his last two. ” Narrative here!!

Check out my author page right here!

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NBA

1/3 DFS Diamonds: With DFS Pro Javi on NFL

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 1/3 DFS Wild Card Weekend for NFL and take a deep dive for each position along with my favorite value plays.   

My Core and Value Plays for ALL Builds :

Sexy 6 – 1/3 DFS

  • Michael Thomas, WR, NO – 1/3 DFS
    • Michael Thomas is my first player for all my tournaments as I start to build out my lineups. He faces a Minnesota pass defense that is highly overrated and defends the tight end pretty well, but struggle in defending the WR. Lock in MT as he’s in line for a huge game this weekend.
  • Alvin Kamara, RB, NO – 1/3 DFS
    • All this workload management for Kamara has led up to these next few weeks. He has been on fire the past few weeks and I think he continues this week against a suspect Minnesota defense.
  • Devin Singletary, RB, BUF – 1/3 DFS
    • Load up my alma mater RB this weekend! Devin Singletary hailing from Boca Raton, FL and the greatest college in the world, FAU Owls. On a serious note, I feel like Houston is falling apart offensively and defensively and have limped into the playoffs. I think the Bills win this one outright even while on the road. Go Owls Go!
  • Julian Edelman, WR, NE – 1/3 DFS
    • It’s the playoffs so this means the Patriots are back. Even though they look horrendous right now, you can’t deny that it’s Tom Brady SZN. I really hope the Titans win outright, but I think the Pats go to work and Edelman is the main reason for it. Titans secondary has been better, but Edelman is feeling better than he has the past few weeks and should smash this Titans secondary.
  • Buffalo Bills DST – 1/3 DFS
    • Not ideal to run a Defense as a Sexy Six pick, but I think the Texans O Line is one of the worst and the Bills should get to Watson quite a few times.
  • John Brown, WR, BUF – 1/3 DFS
    • I’m having a tough time whether to choose John Brown or Josh Allen. Given your build, I want to leave QB off the Sexy Six list. As you construct your lineup, make sure to stack QB and WR so if you can use Drew Brees with MT or Josh Allen with John Brown, I’d say go for it. John Brown is in a great spot against a bottom tier defense in the Texans. Lock him in!

Sexy 6 is the basis for all my builds in both cash and GPP builds. I will most likely lock in a minimum of FOUR for every contest. Due to salary constraints, I doubt I can get all six, but I recommend at least four or five of the recommended players.

Check out my author page right here!

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NBA

12/20 DFS Diamonds: With DFS Pro Javi on NBA

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 12/20 DFS NBA for each position along with my favorite value plays.   

WithNBA DFS, you need to stay locked in the final hour before lock until tipoff. Ifyou can’t be engaged during that hour, we recommend avoiding the NBA slate.Starting lineups and other news is vital to being successful in NBA DFS.

My Core and Value Plays for ALL Builds :

Sexy 6 – 12/20 DFS

  • Chris Boucher, PF/C – 12/20 DFS
    • Siakam and Gasol are BOTH OUT for the Raptors today so enter Chris Boucher. When Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka was out for multiple games last time, Boucher would smash value easily. It seems now he may even start with both out. Lock him in EVERY lineup except one if you’re doing ten or more.
  • Serge Ibaka or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – 12/20 DFS
    • Again, Siakam and Gasol are out so both will get extended runs. I hate Ibaka’s price tag, but he faces a terrible Washington team. Lock in Ibaka if you can afford it, but I prefer RHJ for his price tag.
  • Kyle Lowry, PG – 12/20 DFS
    • Someone needs to score on the Raptors. If Fred VanVleet is IN today, I’ll probably do 33% Lowry, 33% VanVleet, and the rest to have BOTH in my lineup.
  • Kemba Walker, PG – 12/20 DFS
    • Celtics are pretty banged up and Hayward may be OUT again. If he is, I’d lock in Kemba with Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. If Hayward is IN, I’d just lock in Kemba. He’s still priced too cheap.
  • Andre Drummond, C – 12/20 DFS
    • The banned from our DFS playlist Blake Griffin is doubtful tonight. I don’t like the matchup against the Celtics, but the Celtics big men can’t defend someone like Drummond, who needs to smash in order to keep this game from being a blowout.
  • Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo – 12/20 DFS
    • They face New York. If you’re playing one, I’d recommend doing a second lineup and play the other. The End!

I’ve officially started a DO NOT PLAY list and Blake Griffin AND Jonathan Isaac are on that list. DO NOT PLAY them until further notice!

Sexy 6 is the basis for all my builds in both cash and GPP builds. I will most likely lock in a minimum of FOUR for every contest. Due to salary constraints, I doubt I can get all six, but I recommend at least four or five of the recommended players.

Check out my author page right here!

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NBA

12/18 DFS Diamonds: With DFS Pro Javi on NBA

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 12/18 DFS NBA for each position along with my favorite value plays.   

WithNBA DFS, you need to stay locked in the final hour before lock until tipoff. Ifyou can’t be engaged during that hour, we recommend avoiding the NBA slate.Starting lineups and other news is vital to being successful in NBA DFS.

My Core and Value Plays for ALL Builds :

Sexy 6 – 12/18 DFS

  • Davis Bertans, SF/PF – 12/18 DFS
    • Hachimura is officially out for the next five games so this means the door has opened for Bertans. I think he will be extra chalky tonight, especially on FD so I don’t hate the play on DK since he’s priced up on that site.
  • Ian Mahinmi, C (FD Only) – 12/18 DFS
  • Tristan Thompson, C (DK Only) – 12/18 DFS
    • Center is my least favorite position tonight, especially on DK, but there is one that stands out and it is far from my favorite play. Thompson is not very trustworthy in DFS, but he faces Charlotte we love targeting the big man against Chicago or Charlotte. Mahinmi is priced too low on FD still and he faces Chicago.
  • Jeff Teague, PG – 12/18 DFS
    • Karl Anthony-Towns may be OUT and if he is, I’m locking in Teague AND Wiggins, but as of now, let’s think he’s playing tonight. Teague is on the second team and is thriving in this role. They face one of the worst defenses today in the Pelicans and they are on the second night of a back to back after going to OT last night. I’m locked in on Teague!
  • Bradley Beal, SG – 12/18 DFS
    • The Wizards are beat up and someone has to score against this terrible Chicago team. His usage has gone up and I expect him to go big on BOTH sites.
  • Jalen Brunson, PG – 12/18 DFS
    • I don’t like the price tag now, but he’s starting and crushing the opportunity. I think I may change him off of the Sexy Six tag by end of the day, but let’s keep him here for now.
  • Pascal Siakam, SF on FD / PF/C on DK
    • VanVleet is doubtful so bump up to Siakam. He’s another one I may remove the tag off of before lock.

I’ve officially started a DO NOT PLAY list and Blake Griffin is on that list. DO NOT PLAY him until further notice!

Sexy 6 is the basis for all my builds in both cash and GPP builds. I will most likely lock in a minimum of FOUR for every contest. Due to salary constraints, I doubt I can get all six, but I recommend at least four or five of the recommended players.

Check out my author page right here!

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NBA

12/4 DFS Diamonds: DFS Pro J.P. on NBA

Javier Prellezo
written by Javier Prellezo

I’ll be focusing on my core and GPP plays for the 12/4 DFS NBA for each position along with my favorite value plays.   

WithNBA DFS, you need to stay locked in the final hour before lock until tipoff. Ifyou can’t be engaged during that hour, we recommend avoiding the NBA slate.Starting lineups and other news is vital to being successful in NBA DFS.

MyCore and Value Plays by Position:

  • Core Plays – PG – 12/4 DFS
    • Trae Young, PG, ATL
    • Luka Doncic, PG, DAL
      • I think I’m starting all my builds around these two guys. Doncic is unstoppable right now and sat out the whole 4th quarter last night so he should be fresh. As for Trae, he could easily go for 50-60 tonight.
    • Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, UTA – No Mike Conley tonight. It might be the best value play of the night!
  • Core Plays – SG- 12/4 DFS
    • Core Play – Buddy Hield, SG, SAC
      • Hield is on fire lately and I think he could easily smash tonight in a high tempo matchup. My fear is it will either be him or Bogdanovic that will be the ones to crush and Bogdanovic is very low priced.
    • Value Play – Terrance Ross, SG, ORL
    • Other Value Play – Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, SAC
      • Ross is too cheap on the second night on a back to back and should have done more yesterday. He’s getting the minutes and Augustin rose to the occasion. I think tonight is Ross’ night.
  • Core Plays – SF- 12/4 DFS
    • Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, MIL
      • Giannis faces a terrible defense and high paced Pistons team. I lean toward Doncic and Trae tonight, but Giannis is the top play.
    • Value Play – Taurean Prince, SF, BKN
    • Other Value Play – Tim Hardaway Jr., SF, DAL
      • Prince and Hardaway are both starting and in killer matchups. I think I may fade Giannis and go these two with the matchup they have.
  • Core Plays – PF- 12/4 DFS
    • Aaron Gordon, PF, ORL
    • Frank Kaminsky, PF, PHX
    • Cheick Diallo, PF, PHX
      • Now we get to the tougher position of the night. I like Aaron Gordon because he’s priced low with some high usage, but if he puts up a dud, he will be on the do not play list until further notice. As for Kaminsky and Diallo, they will get a ton of minutes with Baynes already ruled out.
  • Core Plays – C- 12/4 DFS
    • Andre Drummond, C, DET
      • If Blake Griffin is OUT, I like this play more, but I fear a blowout versus the Bucks so I might just spend down.
    • Lock Value Play – Mo Bamba, C, ORL
      • Bamba is getting about 20 minutes a game and is priced pretty cheaply. I will try for Drummond, but if I pay up for Trae and Doncic, it may be tough
  • Sexy 6
    • Luka Doncic, PG, DAL
    • Trae Young, PG, ATL
    • Taurean Prince, SF, BKN
    • Aaron Gordon, PF, ORL
    • Frank Kaminsky or Cheick Diallo, PF, PHX
    • Andre Drummond, C, MIL (If not, Mo Bamba)
  • Do Not Play List
    • Kristaps Porzingis
    • Rudy Gay
    • Blake Griffin

Check out my author page right here!

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