Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
This game needs no explanation. Tom Brady returns to New England and we all know that he wants to show the world that it was him, not Belichick, who was the real reason New England was the dominant force in the NFL for almost two decades. My feelings on this contest do not quite match up with Vegas because I just do not think Mac is quite ready to take a game as big as this one and put it all on him. I think nerves will be a factor and the Bucs should get up early. If you are placing any bets tonight consider taking the Bucs -6.5.
I do not think there is a price high enough to keep Brady from being the big chalk tonight and for good reason. Even in his mid 40’s, he remains one of the best QB’s in the league and he wants to pour it on Bill and the Patriots for even entertaining the possibility of replacing him with Jimmy G years back. It does not matter what the score is tonight, he is not taking his foot off of the gas, and this is a guy who throws is 50 times a night against teams he does not take issue with. He may throw until his arm falls off.
Finishing with the silver medal in the petty Olympics we have Antonio Brown. Brady is the one who brought Brown into New England and I can promise you that he has not forgotten that. If I am going to pivot from the goat I am going to do so with the guy I see getting the lion’s share of the passing targets this week with Gronk out with broken ribs. I think people are sleeping on Brown a bit because of the missed time and a Falcons game where he only saw three targets. Do not sleep on him tonight, the narrative is almost as important as the ability tonight and both are high.
If you want to play the garbage time narrative I like the idea of running Jakobi in the captain spot. Last week with the Patriots down, Meyers saw 14 targets for 94 yards and if the Bucs have one weakness it is with the young secondary pieces. I think Mac will struggle from a real football standpoint but I see him getting a lengthy garbage time period where he and Jakobi can pad some stats.
He may have ended up higher on my captain’s list if he were a little cheaper. I love the idea of going after the Pats defense from the slot and Godwin is already at 25 targets in just three games this season. If you choose to not mess with AB this week Godwin would be my other main WR play for the Bucs on the evening. Godwin is the best route runner on this team and Brady will know exactly where to go to find the soft spots in the defense.
As I mentioned above I think Mac has a bit of a tough time early on. While it may look ugly on the field if he has troubles in the early going that means that Damien Harris will not be an option (not that I think he does great against the Bucs front) and he will be in catch up mode early. Garbage time against the Bucs should result in a pretty productive day from a fantasy standpoint and Mac should have his first multi TD game in the process.
I’m not really messing with kickers as per usual but I really don’t expect Bill or Brady to hold back much tonight. I could see a justification for the Bucs defense as they can be a nightmare forcing turnovers and pressuring the QB and Mac being a rookie QB in the biggest game of his career I think they will be even more aggressive than usual.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Buccaneers at Patriots 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 4 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game and GPP articles, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
(if you do not want to use Javonte because of the timeshare Michael Carter is in a great spot as a pivot at 5%)
I will continue to beat this drum because it is only a matter of time before his talent results in a GPP takedown. With Melvin Gordon playing well, people will continue to avoid playing him in a 50/50 time share situation until the status quo changes. As a rookie he already has all of the tools to be an elite three down back but there is one thing people do not know, yet. He is one of the most intelligent people on the football field full stop. Not only does he understand his role, he understands the roles of every other player on the field which combined with his physical skills can and will make him an elite running back in this league the moment he gets the backfield to himself. Against the Ravens his pass catching ability is going to be vital (remember what I said about Swift last week being able to exploit the linebackers and safety’s). He will be finding open zones due to the cover 1 free concepts that are perfect for his open field agility and ability to break tackles. Gordon is questionable as of now but most people will stay away due to not knowing if he will be the main guy in the late games.
Chubb is another player that I will continue to ride until he finally explodes and the fact that you can get him for only 7K, at under 4% ownership, against a bottom three run defense, in a pickem game, with a 51.5 total screams GPP play. Last week the Browns finally gave us the volume that we were expecting from Chubb with 22 carries. Luckily for us this week he only gained 84 yards and failed to get into the end zone for the first time in the regular season since week 10 of 2020. Chubb is an elite back averaging 5.5 yards per carry and Jarvis Landry will be out for at least a few more weeks. While Beckham will try to put the team on his back the Browns are at their absolute best when controlling the game from the ground.
The Eagles coaching staff embarrassed themselves on a nationally televised game and has everyone asking them why they would choose to not even consider running the football against a team that was short two of their defensive linemen and was susceptible to the run. Miles Sanders racked up 27 yards on only two carries and 28 yards on only three catches. It was an embarrassing game plan, so I am fairly certain after all of those questions and the clear accuracy issues of Jalen Hurts that they will make more of an effort to at minimum run enough to keep the Chiefs honest. I just do not see a scenario where Sirianni bails on his run game to an embarrassing degree two weeks in a row.
Also Consider: Zack Moss (3.5%), Michael Carter (5%), Antonio Gibson (10%)
This doesn’t take much explanation, his price will continue to climb from here and he is in a prime spot against the Jets. One thing that I would like to point out that Adam already has. Henry is now being used in the passing game. He is on pace for 73 targets this season dwarfing his career-high of 31. So now we have Derrick Henry catching four or five passes a game and his rushing volume is still the best in the league. Add in no AJ Brown and he is a must for your cash contests. Draftkings has not caught up to what Henry is doing in PPR. He is $1,000 too cheap this week.
I told you guys way back in the preseason that Nagy was going to have to sacrifice his play-calling duties to have a chance to keep his job. Well, four weeks in, and the rumors are that Nagy quietly surrendered the play-calling back to Lazor this week. When that happened last season David had the best six-game stretch of his career rushing for 598 yards with seven rushing TDs and 24 catches for 226 yards and one TD. The icing on the cake is that we get to enjoy this change at the same time that the Bears match up against a competitive but defensively inept Lions squad. Sadly his ownership will be high but I am still going to mix him into my GPP’s as well as Cash contests. Happy Monty day!
I haven’t been on the Kamara train this season but this is an absolute smash spot against the Giants this week. The Giants are a little better than people give them credit for against the run but they are by no means great. Washington ended up being a random shootout on a Thursday night and they abandoned the run. Atlanta is…..Atlanta right now. Denver is the only other team they faced with a legit run game and they tore them up to the tune of 165 yards on the ground. One thing at least to this point that I will say is that I was mistaken about the volume he would get in the run game. He has exceeded 20 carries in 2 of 3 and while his receiving numbers are down with Winston he is still getting at least four targets a game which still gives him some upside in that regard.
Also Consider: Alvin Kamara (18%), D’Andre Swift (15%), Chubba Hubbard (25%/FD), Najee Harris (15%)
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week three and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. I had to push back release of this article but for good reason. Last night NFL Game Pass, after months of missed deadlines, finally released coaches film. For those who are new this year I am a huge proponent of using the coaches film to spot situational advantages based on formations and the normal game replays do not show the full field of view. So in addition to the bigger named guys I will now have a complete dart throw on two that I will add for you folks who still play in 150 entry contests. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26.
QB: Spread out (no QB over 9%)
RB: Dalvin Cook 17%, Saquon Barkley 14%, Joe Mixon 14%, Derrick Henry 13%, D’Andre Swift 13%
WR: Cooper Kupp 22%, Chris Godwin 17%, KJ Osborn 14%, Robert Woods 13%, Tyler Boyd 12%
***Late Addition: Nick Chubb is under 5% projected ownership on DraftKings with no Landry and Beckham in his first game back. He has only been getting around a dozen carries a week thus far, but this week I think the Browns will need to lean on him and use Hunt split out as a receiver. If he gets 20 carries at any point in the early season, this is it.***
For some reason, folks are forgetting about Jonathan Taylor Sunday and we are all over it at Win Daily. The Titans managed to hold Chris Carson to just 2.4 yards per carry but they gave up 2 touchdowns to him and at closer inspection that low YPC was more of a function of bad run blocking on Seattle’s part and less about the Titans front. The Colts line, while a little nicked up, is miles better than anything Seattle put on the field last week. With Wentz playing on two bad ankles he is going to need to lean on Taylor to bail him out with the short passing game instead of scrambling himself and he is good for a minimum of 15 carries every week. Taylor has slate-breaking upside in a plus matchup and he is coming in at a silly sub 5% number as everyone is jumping on Henry and Saquon this week.
See my running back article as I touched on Javonte in depth there. The rookie is supremely talented and he has been getting the bulk of his work after taking the lead which the Broncos are expected to have pretty early on as a 10.5 point favorite.
I love how people are still not believing that the Gronk resurgence is real. It is real ladies and gentlemen. Rob took a year off, got his body healthy, and is living the good life in Florida with his best buddy catching touchdowns. Last year he led the team with Mike Evans with 21 red-zone targets. This year he leads the team through two weeks with 4 red-zone targets and has seen over 80% snap share in each game compared to the 70% range in most of the last season. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that either people are scared of going with two tight ends in their DFS lineups or they are going with guys like Kelce, Hockenson, and Waller who are all expected to have big days. With no Antonio Brown this week and Jalen Ramsey covering Mike Evans, Gronk should smash and don’t tell Bruce Arians, but he doesn’t need to study the playbook to do it.
What if I told you that that you could find a receiver who is in the highest total game of the day, who is his teams leading fantasy producer, who is playing against a bad and banged up secondary, who also happens to have a questionable workhorse running back? Then what would you say if I told you that you could get him at sub 6% ownership? Allow me to reintroduce you to Adam Thielen. We were ready to write Adam off before the season, but the Irv Smith Injury caused a big void in that offense. While everyone is going towards KJ Osborn at only 3.5K on DraftKings, Thielen leads the team in targets and touchdowns and is still a very reasonable 6.7k. If the name was Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, or Cooper Kupp and we were looking at the same scenario we would be looking at triple the ownership and we would be happy to do it. Be sure to put him in a lineup or two because if he sees another 8+ targets against the Seahawks we are looking at a big day for Adam.
Do not overuse this play as it has some huge bust potential but based on some film study and projections this is a play that I see coming in at next to nothing in terms of ownership and has the opportunity the have a strong outing. This week we get a cheap one that will will not kill you and afford you a chance to pay up elsewhere.
My final low owned week 3 DFS play is a gross one. Let me be clear. Is Peoples-Jones good? Resounding no. Are the Browns the type of team to air it out? Also no. But with Jarvis Landry injured is Odell Beckham going to come back in his first game back from significant injury and take all of the targets? Also no. DVP just happens to be the right guy for the right routes against the right team. The Bears typically run a version of the Tampa 2 with what is called a 3-4 over concept, and against the Bengals last week they were running a lot over Cover 1-man and disguising cover two with that look. If they run these concepts again, they will almost certainly cheat to protect the run game, leaving huge openings about 10 yards deep where the post routes and crossing routes develop. People-Jones runs three routes almost exclusively. Go routes (which are protected by the outside leverage), post routes, and crossing routes. What was the route he was running last week when he had the ball knocked out? Post route. There were also a handful of plays last week where he also came free but Baker was not looking at his side of the field and he rarely comes off of the field during run situations since he is a decent blocker. DO NOT GO OVERBOARD here. He could get a goose egg, but from what I saw last week and the formations that I am expecting if he gets 4 or 5 targets and takes a crossing route downfield for a score I am not going to be shocked in the least.
We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 3 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the game by game article that Adam put out as it has a ton of information for every single game on the slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26
****My Christian McCaffrey disclaimer is null and void this week but enjoy locking him in 100% of you lineups on Thursday Night Football****
***Note to all new players: Any players that I list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
I may have to include Henry with CMC as a weekly play in my Running Back DFS breakdown if he goes off again this week. For those who missed the boat on Stix telling everyone to get on the King Henry train last week, you have my sincerest condolences. You will not get him at 5% ownership at any point again this season. He is currently projected as one of the highest-owned running backs this week and will likely remain as such for the rest of the year. With the problems that the Colts are likely to have on the offensive side of the ball this week with a banged-up QB and offensive line, the game script has little chance of going in a direction that keeps Henry off the field. We are looking at another 25 carries and plenty of touchdown equity Sunday.
Back to the well again as Carson has another juicy matchup that will likely result in a score that is reasonable for cash game play. His yards per carry, touches, and receiving number were down/non-existent from week one to week two but Carson managed to sneak into the end zone twice. As far as matchups go, you couldn’t ask for more. The Vikings defense is weak across the board and the 55.5 point game total is the best on the slate. I expect plenty of people to target the passing game but Carson will get his usual 12-15 carries, 3-5 targets, and be in a good position for scoring opportunities again.
The verdict is still out on this one but I think that week three is going to be the week that everyone decides to roster Saquon. While his production was underwhelming, his snap share went from 48% to 84% between week one and week two, he gets several extra days of rest playing last Thursday, and the Washington Football Team has held both the Chargers and Giants running backs to under 100 yards in the first two weeks. While the Falcons did reasonably well against the Bucs there are two differences. First, Saquon is infinitely more talented than Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette. Second, and more importantly, if you listened to our conversation about Dean Pees’s Falcons defense in week one, you know that it involves a ton of secondary blitzes, and how that can be attacked by mobile quarterbacks. Once a running QB burns Pees, he will account for it, leaving the second level wide open for a running back to break free. Barkley is too big for a safety, too fast for a linebacker. This is going to be fun. But sadly I do not think we can get him at low ownership. I hope I’m wrong.
Also Consider: Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook is out), Ty’Son Williams, Austin Ekeler
When it comes to running backs, especially in the modern era of football where shared backfields are the norm, volume is key, and nobody outside of Derrick Henry has more touches than the 49 of Joe Mixon through two weeks. While the Steelers defense is solid as ever Defensive end Carlos Davis and Linebacker Alex Highsmith have both missed practice this week and TJ Watt has been limited with a groin issue, giving us a sneaky opportunity for Mixon to break off some chunk plays at what is looking like depressed ownership. We saw last week against the Bears that Cincy is going to lean on the running game regardless of the game script or defensive strength. And with Big Ben and Dionte Hightower injured to go along with that horrid offensive front of the Steelers the Bengals should not find themselves in a position where they will need to completely abandon the run.
At first, glance when you look at the Raven’s defense it looks pretty clear that the one strength they may have is slowing the run and the way to attack them is with the tight ends up the seams. While it is true that tight end coverage has been a huge issue, the underlying reason for it is also the reason that I want to roster Swift in GPP’s. The linebackers are failing terribly in pass coverage responsibilities. Malik Harrison and Patrick Queen have looked especially bad, seemingly forgetting their responsibilities multiple times a drive and leaving huge holes for running backs, full back, and tight ends to attack for huge gains. Swift is not giving us much in terms of rushing volume but his volume in the passing games gives him enormous upside this week in a game total of over 50. As always with him before rostering, check out his practice participation since he is still dealing with a groin issue.
My final Running Back DFS play is none other than Javonte Williams. Yes, he ended up burning us last week but I am going right back to the well this week. The game total is pathetic against the Jets at 41 points but the implied total for the Broncos is 25.5 and Denver is a huge favorite. Two things stood out last week. First, Williams was close on three separate occasions to breaking loose for huge plays including two that could have been touchdowns. Second, and most importantly for this game 9 of Williams’s 13 carries last week and 21 of his 27 carries overall have come when the Broncos are tied or ahead. The Broncos should get a few extra short-field opportunities and if you have not seen this guy run yet, please go look. He looks incredible and will be taking over the lion’s share of the opportunities from Melvin Gordon sooner rather than later.
Also Consider: Chase Edmonds, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Another week with some smash hits and some misses has come and gone. Let’s continue to try to keep the hits to a maximum and the misses to a minimum! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. The Colts draw one of the best possible matchups for an NFL passing attack in week 3 on Sunday, but I cannot in my right mind recommend rostering Carson Wentz, or his backup Jacob Eason. Another team that has an impeccable matchup for their passing game is the Baltimore Ravens and their QB who is potentially the best dual threat quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) will be facing off against the defense ranked 31st out of 32 in DVOA against the pass on Sunday afternoon, as the Ravens roll into Detroit listed as 8 point favorites. This leaves the Ravens with one of the top three highest implied team totals on the slate, and LJ is a massive part of every scoring drive that this team has. He will definitely cost us a pretty penny, but if we can find some cheap enough ancillary pieces then Lamar is definitely a priority for week 3.
B. Another team that comes to mind when we think of mobile quarterbacks with very high rushing floors is the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) has been shooting up the NFL MVP odds boards almost as quickly as his DFS salary has been shooting up across the industry. With the weapons that he has at his disposal, he is in for an unreal 2021-2022 NFL season. This is definitely a week to target these mobile QBs, as the two top rushing quarterbacks in the league also happen to draw the 2nd and 3rd best possible matchups for an opposing passing attack. The Jaguars defense has struggled to defend nearly everything through the first two weeks, and while their defense is only ranked 19th against the QB position in DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the pass and 24th in overall defense DVOA. This team has scored 38 and 34 points thus far this season, and I do not see the 30+ train stopping this week.
C. My QB3 was the smash spot last week, as I had Tom Brady listed in this spot and he proceeded to roast the pitiful Falcons defense. Daniel Jones ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) has the pleasure of drawing that exact same matchup, and while he could not be much further in skill from the goat, this is the best spot that he will find himself in all season and his price is extremely reasonable. With the high price tags of my first two QB options, I had to find us a cheap arm in an excellent spot for lineups where we want to spend more salary on our skill position players. As I mentioned, if Jones does not smash this week, then we should never play him the rest of this entire season outside of showdown slates. The Falcons are ranked 29th in team defense DVOA, 32nd in DVP against opposing quarterbacks, and 11th in situation-neutral pace of play. While this is obviously only a GPP type of play, even an arm lacking as much skill as Jones should see success in this week 3 matchup.
The Stacks
A. When it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, I tend to avoid any RBs like the plague due to their propensity to have goal line work vultured by Lamar. When it comes to stacking, you only want to pair RBs with your quarterback if they are heavy pass-catching RBs, and none of these Ravens backup runners really fit that bill. Therefore, this leaves us with a three man combo of Hollywood Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. I am really not very high on Watkins at all after he was essentially a useless ghost nearly every game in Kansas City. If he was useless with one of the best young quarterbacks of all time at the helm, then we cannot expect much from him with Jackson slinging passes. That leaves us with Brown and Andrews as our options for this stack, and we can bring it back with either Quintez Cephus, who looked really solid on Monday night, or T.J. Hockenson who caught a sweet touchdown pass on Monday.
B. You can essentially copy and paste what I said for the Ravens running game down here for the Cardinals. While Chase Edmonds does catch some passes, we pay the price for Kyler in the hope that he gets some rushing TDs, not that he dumps it off at the goal line to Edmonds. Luckily, the Cardinals have essentially zero tight ends that we need to worry about, because we already have our hands full at the wide receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Rondale Moore, and even the corpse of A.J. Green are all viable pass catchers for us to stack up with Kyler. I will continue to keep my lineups to a max of two of these guys, because again, there are only so many touchdowns to go around if we expect Kyler to run one or two in. For our bring-back, we should tread lightly with this Jaguars team as usual, and Marvin Jones is finally starting to see his price come up after being insanely underpriced through the first two weeks. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault are fine options, but definitely limit your lineups to one Jaguar pass catcher in case this team totally flops.
C. The final team that I will be stacking in tournaments for week 3 is the NY Giants, who do have some tight ends and solid receiver options for us to pair up with Daniel Jones. Engram is returning from injury and has not played a snap yet this season, so we will have to keep a close eye on him. If he is playing without a snap count or restriction, then he is definitely in play and Kyle Rudolph becomes a very risky option. If Engram is out again then we can look to Kyle Rudolph to hopefully get there for us by catching a touchdown pass. As far as the wide receivers go, Kenny Golladay has the squeaky wheel narrative after his outburst on the sidelines, and I expect we could see an explosive ceiling game from him on Sunday. Slayton and Shepard are also fine options, but I would prioritize Kenny G in all G-men stacks. As usual, the obvious two run-back options on the Falcons are Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley, as will be the case for what I expect to be this entire season.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
Another week with some smash hits and some misses has come and gone. Let’s continue to try to keep the hits to a maximum and the misses to a minimum! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. The Colts draw one of the best possible matchups for an NFL passing attack in week 3 on Sunday, but I cannot in my right mind recommend rostering Carson Wentz, or his backup Jacob Eason. Another team that has an impeccable matchup for their passing game is the Baltimore Ravens and their QB who is potentially the best dual threat quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) will be facing off against the defense ranked 31st out of 32 in DVOA against the pass on Sunday afternoon, as the Ravens roll into Detroit listed as 8 point favorites. This leaves the Ravens with one of the top three highest implied team totals on the slate, and LJ is a massive part of every scoring drive that this team has. He will definitely cost us a pretty penny, but if we can find some cheap enough ancillary pieces then Lamar is definitely a priority for week 3.
B. Another team that comes to mind when we think of mobile quarterbacks with very high rushing floors is the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) has been shooting up the NFL MVP odds boards almost as quickly as his DFS salary has been shooting up across the industry. With the weapons that he has at his disposal, he is in for an unreal 2021-2022 NFL season. This is definitely a week to target these mobile QBs, as the two top rushing quarterbacks in the league also happen to draw the 2nd and 3rd best possible matchups for an opposing passing attack. The Jaguars defense has struggled to defend nearly everything through the first two weeks, and while their defense is only ranked 19th against the QB position in DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the pass and 24th in overall defense DVOA. This team has scored 38 and 34 points thus far this season, and I do not see the 30+ train stopping this week.
C. My QB3 was the smash spot last week, as I had Tom Brady listed in this spot and he proceeded to roast the pitiful Falcons defense. Daniel Jones ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) has the pleasure of drawing that exact same matchup, and while he could not be much further in skill from the goat, this is the best spot that he will find himself in all season and his price is extremely reasonable. With the high price tags of my first two QB options, I had to find us a cheap arm in an excellent spot for lineups where we want to spend more salary on our skill position players. As I mentioned, if Jones does not smash this week, then we should never play him the rest of this entire season outside of showdown slates. The Falcons are ranked 29th in team defense DVOA, 32nd in DVP against opposing quarterbacks, and 11th in situation-neutral pace of play. While this is obviously only a GPP type of play, even an arm lacking as much skill as Jones should see success in this week 3 matchup.
The Stacks
A. When it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, I tend to avoid any RBs like the plague due to their propensity to have goal line work vultured by Lamar. When it comes to stacking, you only want to pair RBs with your quarterback if they are heavy pass-catching RBs, and none of these Ravens backup runners really fit that bill. Therefore, this leaves us with a three man combo of Hollywood Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. I am really not very high on Watkins at all after he was essentially a useless ghost nearly every game in Kansas City. If he was useless with one of the best young quarterbacks of all time at the helm, then we cannot expect much from him with Jackson slinging passes. That leaves us with Brown and Andrews as our options for this stack, and we can bring it back with either Quintez Cephus, who looked really solid on Monday night, or T.J. Hockenson who caught a sweet touchdown pass on Monday.
B. You can essentially copy and paste what I said for the Ravens running game down here for the Cardinals. While Chase Edmonds does catch some passes, we pay the price for Kyler in the hope that he gets some rushing TDs, not that he dumps it off at the goal line to Edmonds. Luckily, the Cardinals have essentially zero tight ends that we need to worry about, because we already have our hands full at the wide receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Rondale Moore, and even the corpse of A.J. Green are all viable pass catchers for us to stack up with Kyler. I will continue to keep my lineups to a max of two of these guys, because again, there are only so many touchdowns to go around if we expect Kyler to run one or two in. For our bring-back, we should tread lightly with this Jaguars team as usual, and Marvin Jones is finally starting to see his price come up after being insanely underpriced through the first two weeks. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault are fine options, but definitely limit your lineups to one Jaguar pass catcher in case this team totally flops.
C. The final team that I will be stacking in tournaments for week 3 is the NY Giants, who do have some tight ends and solid receiver options for us to pair up with Daniel Jones. Engram is returning from injury and has not played a snap yet this season, so we will have to keep a close eye on him. If he is playing without a snap count or restriction, then he is definitely in play and Kyle Rudolph becomes a very risky option. If Engram is out again then we can look to Kyle Rudolph to hopefully get there for us by catching a touchdown pass. As far as the wide receivers go, Kenny Golladay has the squeaky wheel narrative after his outburst on the sidelines, and I expect we could see an explosive ceiling game from him on Sunday. Slayton and Shepard are also fine options, but I would prioritize Kenny G in all G-men stacks. As usual, the obvious two run-back options on the Falcons are Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley, as will be the case for what I expect to be this entire season.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
It goes without saying that this is going to be an explosive contest with several of the most prolific fantasy producers in the NFL. While we do have tons of points to be scored the player pool is relatively small so the tough part is going to be finding the cheap value play that will allow you to fit all of the studs that we want in our lineups.
No need to get cute in your captain spot this week unless you want to donate. There are four or five guys you should play and no more.
Do I really need to explain this one? If Derek Carr went off for 400+ yards what do you think Mahomes could do? He will be the chalk and for good reason. The Ravens are going to have an impossible task of running man against two 4.2 speed receivers and the best tight end in the league.
The weakness of the Chiefs has always been the run game and that is the one thing that the Ravens and Lamar do exceedingly well. The run totals will be there regardless but in this game he will have to produce in the air if they are to have any chance at winning this game. Just keep in mind Lamar has only exceeded 300 yards passing two times in his entire career so temper you expectations as to what those passing numbers will be.
If I do not use either Lamar or Mahomes I have a ton of confidence that Kelce will have a monster of a game and will be my #1 play outside of them. The Raiders last week took that man defense and shredded if for over 400 yards and they did it using Darren Waller to the tune of 10 catches, on 19 targets, for 105 yards, and a TD. The thing is, Waller was open way more than even what his stats show, Carr was just unable to get it to him. Mahomes and Andy Reid are not going to miss in that way. If for some reason the Raven do try to move into a zone coverage Kelce is still the big target to go to as they clear the zones out with Hardman and Hill, leaving Kelce free down the seem and in crossing routes. He is the cheat code for me today.
The Ravens run tons of man concepts, cover one, and heavy pressure. All of these things can be exploited by the speed of the cheetah and the elusiveness of Mahomes. I am going to lean on Kelce but do not let that deter you from using Hill in a few captain spots. He is still in a smash spot and he gives you a little added boost with the potential for a return touchdown.
I do not think you should go any further down than the four players about but if you are desperate to find someone else as a captain you can get Sammy Watkins at 2% in a revenge narrative. We saw Sammy get 8 targets for 96 yards in week one and I think the Ravens will absolutely have to throw the ball to keep up. But if you do this please understand who we are talking about here. Watkins has made a habit of having a big week one only to do nothing for the rest of the season. It has happened multiple years in a row. I think most of the fantasy community is on to that as well so we are talking very high risk, very high reward.
I really do not think you need to go here today. The only justification I can make for it is if you need a cheap Harrison Butker as a final piece or if you are taking a high risk approach and pairing Hill with the D/ST to double dip on a long shot return touchdown. I am not messing with Tucker this week because if KC comes out hot kicking field goals is not going to do them any good and John Harbaugh knows it.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Chiefs at Ravens 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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