Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.
Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.
While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.
There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.
The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.
Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.
With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
Yuck. That is all I have to say about this contest with the injury situation in Seattle. This will not be the prettiest game in the world but it should be a fun one to target for fantasy. Who would have thought that in 2021 we would be seeing Geno Smith starting a football game. I think the total is pretty spot on but I am not quite sold that a Seahawks team post legion of boom, without Chris Carson, and without Russell Wilson would only be 4.5 point dogs on a road game in Pittsburgh. One thing I am interested to see is the Steelers O-line and whether the league worst 2.3 seconds per throw will improve since this should be the easiest pass rush that the Steelers have faced to date. I do plan on taking a few shots on Big Ben in the event that he does get enough time to throw. I do not like the circumstances that he is dealing with but I am nowhere near as low on him as a QB as most others are. But that is the beauty of fantasy sports, we get to put some money on it and reap the rewards if we are correct.
The clear cut chalk in tonight’s game is Najee and I really do not think anyone will be within 5%. Najee as a rookie is already top three in the NFL in touches and leader in targets five weeks into the season and this game script is perfect for him to have a huge showing. If all goes to plan Najee will likely be the raw points leader when it is all said and done but there are a few options below that I think we can roll with to get a little different and get a little better value at captain in order to fit one extra “stud” in your build.
With no Juju tonight there are a handful of extra targets to go around tonight and even as bad as Big Ben looks this year Dionte’s big play ability and his 10-12 targets a game against this week Hawks D could be a points bonanza so as far as pivots go he is my main guy. My choice to go with Dionte over Claypool is simply due to the number of targets and I think Chase has slightly higher ownership as a captain so I am splitting the smallest of hairs here.
Chase is a beastly human being and he regularly turns 5 yard slants into 40 yard TD’s because of how strong he is. If you choose to roll with him as your captain over Dionte you are not going to see me complaining about it. My only concern as I noted above is that Dionte gets around double the targets as Claypool any given week but he can very easily turn 6 targets into 120 yards and 2 TD’s.
With Geno throwing the football I am in no way confident about the receiving corps of the Seahawks but if I had to choose one I am going to go for the bigger target with the inaccurate arm of Smith. Smith is going to make some terrible throws tonight but a physical talent like DK should be able to win a number of the 50/50 balls tonight and potentially convert them into big plays downfield. This will likely be the only time you will also see a players like DK in a showdown slate at sub 5% in the captain spot. Do not go overweight on this one as I have minimal confidence here but the leverage it provides is substantial if his talent can overcome the shortcomings at the QB position.
Yes I know Ben has played like garbage this season but if we feel confident about Harris in the receiving game, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool then it stands to reason that the person throwing the ball to them will have a good game as well. Ben has had the least amount of time to throw in the NFL (2.28 sec) so I am not 100% laying the blame at his feet just yet. This will be the weakest pass rush by far for the Steelers so if they can give been somewhere closer to 2.8 or maybe even 3 seconds that will give longer developing routes time to develop and maybe turn into some big plays for Ben. I know that everyone is quick to talk about his arm strength but when given the time I have seen him uncork several throws well over 50 yards this season and I do not think that anyone will be using him as a captain in tonight’s contest.
This is a Sunday night game where Kickers and at least one defense is in play. With Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks the Steelers defense could have themselves a huge night. He has never been able to make good choices with heavy pressure in his face and the Hawks O-line is yet again one of the worst in the NFL. Both Jason Meyers and Chris Boswell should get scoring opportunities with long field goals as
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.
It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.
It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)
Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.
12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.
The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.
I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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