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DFS NFL

NFL DFS Week 8: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Heading into week 8 of the NFL it seems as though the league is more wide open that it has ever been. The Chiefs just got blown out by the Titans and look absolutely lost on the football field. The only argument against this is that the Bucs look just as good as they did during their super bowl season last year, but outside of them there are a lot of divisions up for grabs. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a bye this week, as are quite a few teams across the NFL given that week 7 was apparently the week of the byes. With the Urban Meyer narrative long in the rearview mirror and long since overshadowed by Jon Gruden, Trevor Lawrence ($5,500 DK / $6,700 FD) and this Jags team should now be fully focused on their opponent. Speaking of their opponent, they will be playing the Seattle Seahawks, who are on the opposite of a bye as they are dealt a short week given that they just played a pretty pathetic game against the Saints on Monday. This Seahawks teamed looked pretty horrendous, and the only reason that they were able to hold the Saints to 13 points was because they are the Saints, and the weather was detrimental to offensive production. Regardless of weather, the Seahawks rank 21st and 25th in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, respectively, while ranking 16th in defense against the quarterback position. Lawrence has looked very rough this season, and this is definitely a GPP-only play, but if there is ever a breakout spot for a young rookie #1 overall pick, this is it.

B. Another quarterback that I expect to be extremely low-owned is Sam Darnold ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD). As you can see, my plan is to continue to look to save money at the quarterback position in the majority of my lineups this weekend. What a rollercoaster of a ride it has been for Sam, as he has gone from being a total and complete bust in the NFL with the Jets, to reaching his potential and flourishing with the Panthers as they started 3-0, and now back down to rock bottom as Carolina has dropped four games in a row. Let’s be honest though, the Panthers beat the Texans and Jets as two of their first three games so is that really at all impressive? Regardless of your thoughts on Darnold, he did have three clear ceiling games to show us that he does possess tournament-winning upside at this price and with this team. In a matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that seemingly ranks in the bottom of the entire NFL in most defensive metrics each season, I expect Carolina to put the ball in Sam’s hands early and often to give him one final chance to salvage his career.

C. Strangely enough, I will be looking to target the exact same QB3 this weekend as I did in week 6 for my previous article, and that QB is Joe Burrow ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD). While his prices are not necessarily as low as they were the last time that I looked to target him, they are still at reasonable levels given his production so far this season. As my New England Patriots showed on Sunday, this Jets defense and team in general is pretty laughable. The Pats made this team look like they belong in college, and I expect Joe and the Bengals to do the same. Ranking 29th in total DVOA, 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in adjusted line yards, the Jets defense is truly subpar on all accounts. The line yards are of particular importance, given that this O-line is not much improved from the one that allowed opposing defenses to torment Burrow his rookie season that ultimately resulted in a devastating leg injury. JB should continue to show glimpses of his greatness at LSU this weekend and I want to be along for the ride.

The Stacks

A. There is the narrative going around the DFS industry lately that the field is forcing bring-backs when they do not need one and while I think that that is true in some cases, I will still be highlighting our options when a bring-back does make sense. If I do not feel the need to, I will make that clear, as is usually the case with teams like the Lions or the Texans. Anyway, looking at the Jaguars, we have an interesting situation as they just lost their WR1 DJ Chark to a fractured left ankle. This leaves us with week 1 (and honestly 2 as well) darling Marvin Jones, who has seen his price rise over the weeks as expected. My favorite option from this group though is Laviska Shenault, who is priced to move across the DFS industry. Jamal Agnew may get some buzz, but I will likely keep any Jags stacks to just these two pass catchers, with a potential Dan Arnold sprinkle given how weak the TE position is. Typically I would look to run a bring back with the Seahawks and DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or even Gerald Everett, but that is not the case this week. With a short week, a recent and absolutely disgraceful 10 point performance, and Geno Smith attempting to play quarterback, I am totally off of this team.

B. Sam Darnold and the Panthers present us another interesting situation, as we are able to target the running back in our stacks since Chuba Hubbard catches passes out of the backfield from Darnold. We can also of course look to alpha wideout DJ Moore, who has shown us GPP takedown upside on a few occasions this season. Robby Anderson appears to have had a blip on the radar during previous seasons as he has totally fallen off a cliff in 2021. This is common in the NFL as it is so difficult to stay consistently productive. Ian Thomas is another cheap TE punt that we can look to if we are desperate, but we should not even expect double digit fantasy points necessarily. For the Falcons side of the ball, Calvin Ridley will be extremely chalky on DraftKings at a price point of $6,600, but he and Kyle Pitts are the clear-cut options for a bring-back in a game where I think we do need to target both sides to win tournaments.

C. To close things out for week 8 of the NFL, the two Joes (Burrow/Mixon) will be teaming up with Burrow’s former LSU teammate and breakout rookie of the year candidate, Ja’Marr Chase, against the hapless New York Jets. The GD Jets are so bad, that we can not only look to these two top-tier options, but also the WR2 and WR3 of this team, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Tight end CJ Uzomah has also been extremely productive at times and has looked like a top 10 TE in the league this season. With someone named Mike White that I have honestly never heard of taking over the reigns for the pathetic joke of an NFL franchise that is the New York Jets, you can bet every penny you have that this is a spot where I will avoid including a bring-back. Look for the Bengals to keep rolling because if the Pats hung 50+ on this team, so can Joe and Ja’Marr.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Cardinals -6

This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.

Captains:

Chalk: Kyler Murray, $18,000:

Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 :

While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.

Contrarian #1: Aaron Rodgers, $17,100 :

There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.

Contrarian #2: Robert Tonyan, $6,900 :

The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.

Contrarian#3: Christian Kirk, $10,500:

Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 Flex Plays:

Kyler Murray
Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers
Robert Tonyan
Christian Kirk
AJ Green
Randall Cobb
Zach Ertz
Amari Rodgers
Rondale Moore
Chase Edmonds
Marquez Valdez-Scantling (if he plays)
Malik Taylor (back from Covid)
James Connor
Equanamious St. Brown

Kickers and defenses:

With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 7 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Cash running backs are about as straight forward as it gets for me this week. We have a few prime matchups that are where I think you should start your cash builds. With so many bye weeks your core of running backs should not vary all that much, just stick with the obvious plays and make your adjustments with wide receivers. Gpp’s we have a few pivots in pretty good spots but as you already know, this is a rough week so tread lightly.

GPP:

Aaron Jones, $7,500DK/$8,500FD: 4-6%

Matt LaFleur is so frustrating when it comes to how he utilizes his running backs but this is a fantastic position for Aaron Jones and we get to roster him at less than 6%. This is impossible to ignore in a week where there are so many injuries and bye weeks. Washington’s defense has been a huge letdown this season being dead last in points per game allowed (31.0) and bottom seven in nearly every defensive statistical category. The question is not whether or not Jones can produce, the question is will Matt LaFleur just go with what works or will he try to be the “smartest coach on the field” as we have seen the snap share go from 70-30 in the first two weeks to 60-40 in two of the last three weeks.

Joe Mixon $6,500DK/$7,200FD: 5-7%

Last week the Ravens looked as if they got a little bit of their mojo back defensively but I am willing to chalk that up as the Chargers being historically bad when it comes to traveling to the east coast. On a re-watch of that game, I did not see anything from Baltimore that made me think they have turned the corner so until I see it with any consistency, targeting pass-catching backs against the Ravens is still a preferred play for me. Mixon was used heavily in that role against the Packers last week, bringing in five of six targets for 59 yards and a TD to go along with 18 carries while still being less than 100%. Mixon’s volume is second only behind Derrick Henry on the season, facing the 28th ranked DVOA when it comes to pass-catching backs, and is going completely ignored being projected between 5-7% rostered on the day making this an elite target for GPP’s on the day.

James Connor, $5,600DK/$6,500FD: 3-5%

With everyone gravitating towards Chase Edmonds in what should be a prime spot against the basement dwelling Texans, James Connor saw a 55% snap share compared to Edmonds last week, has a higher rushing prop, and has the best odds to score (-140) of the game. With the Cardinals being an obscene 18.5 point favorite Connor should see his largest workload by far this week and he is being projected under 4% on the slate.

Also Consider: Antonio Gibson (sub 4%, monitor the injury news), JD McKissic (sub 3%, DK only),

WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

Cash:

Derrick Henry, $9,200DK/$11,000FD, :

I feel like I am copying and pasting this every week but Henry finds himself in another smash spot against a team that is susceptible against the run. You will here me, Ghost, and Stix talk about Henry ad nauseum this week and every week going forward so I will not waste your time repeating the same thing. Fade him at your own peril. All hail the King.

Darrell Henderson, $6,600DK/$8,000FD :

When this season started there were workload concerns and whether or not Henderson could handle the burden of being a number one. After 6 weeks of action, we have a large enough sample to say clearly that he can handle the role. Henderson has had no less than 16 touches in all five of the games he has played and scored no less than 15.7 DK points to date. Now he gets to face the 7th worst defense in terms of DVOA against running backs on the ground and the worst by a wide margin through the air. Oh yeah, and for added benefit, Stafford will be going into this game wanting to beat the breaks off of the Lions. The fans in Detroit spent the last decade blaming their poor performance on Stafford and he is going to go out of his way to rub it in. This is likely going to get out of hand in a hurry and Henderson will have plenty of time to run it down their throat in the second half of the game.

Chuba Hubbard, $6,100DK/$7,300FD :

With CMC suddenly finding his way to the IR last week (NFL needs to get a handle on coaches withholding information but that’s another story) this is Chuba’s backfield until further notice and boy does he get a nice week seven opponent in the New York Giants. With a 65% snap share in each of the last two weeks and 16 carries to go along with 3 targets even in a negative game script last week he presents a solid floor at 6.1k with a 95.5 total yards prop and the best odds to score in the game.

Also Consider: Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17.

Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5

Yuck. That is all I have to say about this contest with the injury situation in Seattle. This will not be the prettiest game in the world but it should be a fun one to target for fantasy. Who would have thought that in 2021 we would be seeing Geno Smith starting a football game. I think the total is pretty spot on but I am not quite sold that a Seahawks team post legion of boom, without Chris Carson, and without Russell Wilson would only be 4.5 point dogs on a road game in Pittsburgh. One thing I am interested to see is the Steelers O-line and whether the league worst 2.3 seconds per throw will improve since this should be the easiest pass rush that the Steelers have faced to date. I do plan on taking a few shots on Big Ben in the event that he does get enough time to throw. I do not like the circumstances that he is dealing with but I am nowhere near as low on him as a QB as most others are. But that is the beauty of fantasy sports, we get to put some money on it and reap the rewards if we are correct.

Captains:

Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:

The clear cut chalk in tonight’s game is Najee and I really do not think anyone will be within 5%. Najee as a rookie is already top three in the NFL in touches and leader in targets five weeks into the season and this game script is perfect for him to have a huge showing. If all goes to plan Najee will likely be the raw points leader when it is all said and done but there are a few options below that I think we can roll with to get a little different and get a little better value at captain in order to fit one extra “stud” in your build.

Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:

With no Juju tonight there are a handful of extra targets to go around tonight and even as bad as Big Ben looks this year Dionte’s big play ability and his 10-12 targets a game against this week Hawks D could be a points bonanza so as far as pivots go he is my main guy. My choice to go with Dionte over Claypool is simply due to the number of targets and I think Chase has slightly higher ownership as a captain so I am splitting the smallest of hairs here.

Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:

Chase is a beastly human being and he regularly turns 5 yard slants into 40 yard TD’s because of how strong he is. If you choose to roll with him as your captain over Dionte you are not going to see me complaining about it. My only concern as I noted above is that Dionte gets around double the targets as Claypool any given week but he can very easily turn 6 targets into 120 yards and 2 TD’s.

Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:

With Geno throwing the football I am in no way confident about the receiving corps of the Seahawks but if I had to choose one I am going to go for the bigger target with the inaccurate arm of Smith. Smith is going to make some terrible throws tonight but a physical talent like DK should be able to win a number of the 50/50 balls tonight and potentially convert them into big plays downfield. This will likely be the only time you will also see a players like DK in a showdown slate at sub 5% in the captain spot. Do not go overweight on this one as I have minimal confidence here but the leverage it provides is substantial if his talent can overcome the shortcomings at the QB position.

Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:

Yes I know Ben has played like garbage this season but if we feel confident about Harris in the receiving game, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool then it stands to reason that the person throwing the ball to them will have a good game as well. Ben has had the least amount of time to throw in the NFL (2.28 sec) so I am not 100% laying the blame at his feet just yet. This will be the weakest pass rush by far for the Steelers so if they can give been somewhere closer to 2.8 or maybe even 3 seconds that will give longer developing routes time to develop and maybe turn into some big plays for Ben. I know that everyone is quick to talk about his arm strength but when given the time I have seen him uncork several throws well over 50 yards this season and I do not think that anyone will be using him as a captain in tonight’s contest.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:

Najee Harris
Dionte Johnson
Chase Claypool
DK Metcalf
Tyler Lockett
Ben Roethlisberger
Alex Collins
Gino Smith
Gerald Everette
Steelers D
Pat Freiermuth
Chris Boswell
Jason Meyers
Eric Ebron
Freddie Swain
Will Dissly
Travis Homer

Kickers and defenses:

This is a Sunday night game where Kickers and at least one defense is in play. With Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks the Steelers defense could have themselves a huge night. He has never been able to make good choices with heavy pressure in his face and the Hawks O-line is yet again one of the worst in the NFL. Both Jason Meyers and Chris Boswell should get scoring opportunities with long field goals as

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 6 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. In addition to bye weeks we have a London game that pulls away from the main slate and a slew of injuries that we have to navigate so be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game Checkdown article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Javonte Williams, $5,000DK.$5,600:

I have been trying to temper my expectations on Javonte over the last few weeks since the Broncos have been dead set on splitting the work between him and Melvin Gordon. But Melvin is injured and it appears that even if he plays his workload will be limited in order to protect him so the rest of the world is about to see what a number of us already know. Javonte is the next superstar running back to emerge in the NFL. He checks all of the boxes in both the tangible and intangible categories. Big, strong, fast, smart, can catch the ball, can block in pass pro, and is on a team that will run the ball when the script allows it. The best part is that since it is a late-game we likely will not get confirmation on his injury until the early games have kicked off so he is sitting between 3-5%, but even if we do there are so many people already on Khalil Herbert that I do not really think the ownership numbers will change enough to take him out of play in GPP’s.

Dalvin Cook, $7,700DK/$8,800:

We have ourselves a very interesting situation where there is so much value due to injuries this week that Dalvin Cook is looking like he will be around 8% rostered against a Panthers team who has only gone up against one team that can run the ball effectively (Cowboys) and surrendered 210 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries between (7.0 YPC) Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. Cook appears to be 100% now after sufferings an ankle injury a few weeks ago and Mattison is now dealing with a shoulder injury. This is a full go situation where we get him as a GPP option as an added benefit.

D’Andre Swift, $6,300DK/$7,100FD:

I was expecting him to be higher than the 8% that I am seeing him at. The Bengals defense has allowed at least 120 yards rushing in three of five games, 14 catches to Najee Harris, and 8 grabs to the combo of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones making this a prime spot for Swift who has had no less than 6 targets in his last three games and no less than 11 carries in 3 of 5 games. He has been dealing with this going injury since the preseason so I am no longer concerned and with Cephus on the IR, and Hockenson and Jamaal Williams both dealing with their injuries Swift is likely to see an uptick in usage this week.

Also Consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson

WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

Cash:

Austin Ekeler, $7,900DK/$8,400FD:

One thing is certain for me when I am building my lineups for any slate. If there is a pass-catching running back going up against the Ravens linebackers and safeties they will be rostered in a healthy amount of my builds (or tight ends but that is not my focus here). With Mike Williams dealing with a knee issue and 50/50 to play the trio of Ekeler, Allen, and Cook will potentially have to absorb the 10+ targets a game vacated in a 51 total game that Vegas is expecting to stay close.

Khalil Herbert, $4,600DK/$5,500FD:

With the numerous injuries to the Packers defense, they have gone from a defense that can put together a stout game when the matchups are favorable to a fully exploitable team on both the ground and the air. Not only did they surrender huge chink plays to Jamar Chase to the tune of 159 yards on only six catches, but they also gave up 5.4 yards per carry to….Samaje Perine. Yeah, you are reading that right. In Khalil’s first major action this season the Bears weren’t shy using him, feeding him 18 carries for a respectable 75 yards and I’m expecting much more this week. I had the pleasure of watching Herbert play for my Hokies last season and while he isn’t the fastest guy in the world he is over 210 lbs at only 5’9″, is tough to solo tackle, and has good hands if the Bears decide to use him in the passing game.

Kareem Hunt, $6,200DK/$7,400FD:

Just lock this in for your cash contests, you are doing yourself a huge disservice if you do not. When it comes to the Browns, if either one of the rushing title winning running backs sit you start the other and do not think twice. Even with Chubb playing Kareem has only had one game with less than 16.6 DK points and only one game where he did not get into the endzone. The Cardinals are clearly better than we were anticipating on the defensive side of things but James Robinson (before Meyer learned he is allowed to run), Darrell Henderson, and Davin Cook all averaged at least 5.6 yards per carry and the Browns are committed to the run in a way that all of these teams sans Minnesota (Cook had 131 yards on 22 carries) are not. There is no need to get cute, play the stud, count your money.

Also Consider: Chubba Hubbard, Jonathan Taylor, Darrell Henderson

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

I know that we say this every single week, but it truly is hard to believe that we have already arrived at week 6 of the NFL. While we are still not approaching the halfway point of this new longer season, we are rapidly approaching the halfway point of the season-long fantasy football season. This is not a season long article though, so let’s focus on our top targets for DFS contests this weekend. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Kansas City Chiefs are shockingly 2-3 after losses to the Ravens, Chargers, and most recently a blowout loss to the Bills. The narrative going into this season was the the Chiefs cover at a high rate early in the season and then fail to cover later in the season as they coast towards the playoffs and keep the playbook close to their chest. Clearly, that is not accurate, which is why we should always be careful following a narrative and really never make bets based on them. What we should do, however, is roster Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) in our DFS lineups this Sunday. While Mahomes is far from “on sale”, his ownership has been very low this season due almost exclusively to his prohibitive price tag compared to other signal callers. This is the week to pay that price when the DFS industry and football world as a whole is way down on this team. To add to that, the Chiefs draw an absolute dream matchup against a Washington Football Team defense that is ranked 28th in DVOA and 29th at defending the pass. Worst of all, they are ranked dead last in defense against opposing quarterbacks, which sounds like a 400+ passing yard and 3+ TD game for Mr. Mahomes to me.

B. The second quarterback that I will be looking to target in GPPs for week 6 of the NFL is Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD). Stafford and the Rams draw a matchup against the hapless New York Giants who just seem to be awful year after year, very similar to the other team in New York. It truly does not get much worse as a sports fan than New York football. The G-men are ranked 26th in DVOA, 25th against the QB position and 22nd against the pass. In other words, any way that you slice it this team is not very adept at defending opposing passing attacks. The Rams are listed as massive double digit favorites in this game, but if this game turns into a blowout then we should expect at least 2-3 touchdowns provided by the arm of Matt Stafford. To make matters worse, the Giants are the worst team on the main slate in terms of adjusted sack rate, which combines with the Rams offensive line to give Stafford the lowest chance of being pressured or sacked of all quarterbacks in the 10 game main slate. Lock and load Stafford in all formats if you do not have the salary cap to get up to Patrick from State Farm.

C. With two safe options at QB1 and QB2 this week, I will be taking a shot with my QB3 and looking to target Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD). I have yet to roster Burrow through the first five weeks of the season, but the narrative that he is nowhere near at the level that he was at prior to his gruesome injury has still made its way into my head. This looks to be accurate when it comes to ceiling, as JB has yet to eclipse the 25 fantasy point mark on DraftKings, but he has had a pretty solid floor with the exception of his brutal performance against the Bears in week 2. Where he has really struggled is with turning the ball over, currently sporting a 11/6 TD/interception ratio which is pretty awful. The good news is, he hit a season high in both attempts (38) and completions (26) last week against the Packers, so we may see him beginning to come out of his well-deserved injury shell. I cannot think of a better “Joe is back” smash matchup than the one that the Bengals draw in week 6 of the NFL, the Detroit Lions. It is no secret that the Lions are the bottom of the barrel in the NFL on both sides of the ball, so I will save you the metric overview and just say that I love Burrow as a low-owned GPP option this Sunday.

The Stacks

A. With the Chiefs starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire being placed on IR, many may be looking to get some Darrel Williams exposure this week, which is certainly an acceptable proposition. However, I am of the belief that the Chiefs will be throwing even more than they do on a typical Sunday this weekend. I do not think that anyone could have anticipated how dreadfully awful this Chiefs defense has been, but here we are in week 6 of the NFL with the Chiefs surrendering nearly 30 points per game to opposing offenses. Andy Reid is well aware that his best chance to win is by putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes as much as possible, which will result in extremely high ceilings and floors for the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill. If you are feeling frisky and want to target fringe pass catchers like Hardman or Robinson feel free, but I will likely stick to the two studs on both this side of the ball and the other side. Speaking of the other side, the Washington Football Team has two clear cut receiving options that also happen to be at the WR and the TE position. Of course I am referencing Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones, now that Logan Thomas is expected to be out for another 3-4 weeks. You can look to bring the Chiefs stack back with Antonio Gibson, but as with any Chiefs stack, you will need to find as many places to save salary as possible.

B. The Cooper Kupp vs. Bobby Trees debate is one as old as time, and while Kupp has certainly taken the early lead, teams tend to then focus more on defending the brighter star, which in turn leaves more opportunity for the other play maker. We saw Woods come to life a bit last week, and these two still have drastically different prices which have me leaning towards Woods much more often. Darrell Henderson is another excellent option this week and I love pairing him with one of either Woods or Kupp to go along with our Stafford lineups. Not to be forgotten is tight end Tyler Higbee, who is always a big red zone target for Stafford to turn to. For the G-Men, Kadarius Toney absolutely smashed in week five, but DraftKings was quick to shoot his price up into the mid-tier of wideouts. At 5.6K, I am more likely to look to the returning Sterling Shepard as an option and save the $600 salary. Regardless, do not get carried away with this team as they are listed as one of the largest underdogs of the entire week.

C. To close things out we will double click into the Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Detroit Lions matchup. The Lions lost breakout wide receiver Quintez Cephus to a broken collarbone last week, further depleting the already extremely slim options that former Rams quarterback Jared Goff has to deal with. I will continue to avoid any Lions receiving options, but T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are two solid options that have been gathering quite a bit of steam around the industry early this week. If either of them get too chalky, I am more than fine running Bengals stacks without a bring-back, because this Lions squad is a threat to put up a goose egg on the scoreboard any given week. Switching over to the main side of this game that we want to target, it appears that Mixon will play although he is banged up to a certain extent. I will be focusing my attention on the three favorite passing targets of QB Joe Burrow, which are Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. While Chase’s price and ownership are starting to really creep up, Higgins and Boyd are still at more than reasonable levels and therefore make for the better options in GPPs. Chase is definitely the optimal choice here however, so we can plug him into our stacks and look to differentiate elsewhere as well.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

The QB’s

The Stacks

3 years ago 0 comments

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WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3

This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.

Captains:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:

It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:

It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:

Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill

12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.

Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :

The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:

Emmanuel Sanders
Zack Moss
Dawson Knox
Cole Beasley
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mecole Hardman
Demarcus Robinson
Gabriel Davis
Byron Pringle
Harrison Butker
Tyler Bass
Josh Gordon
Jody Fortson

Kickers and defenses:

I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 5 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Adam’s Game x Game article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)

With King Henry being the de facto top option, James Robinson in a potential smash spot against the Titans, Swift against the Vikings, and possibly Tony Pollard becoming the huge chalk if Zeke misses time Aaron Jones’s beautiful matchup against the Bengals appears to be going overlooked completely and is sitting between 6-7% right now with the potential to go even lower depending on injury news in a few spots. Jones struggled last week but the Steelers defensive from is still solid and they play pass catching backs well enough to limit his upside last week. The Bengals though….Well they allowed 14 catches on 19 targets for 102 yards to Najee Harris and just gave up two TD’s on 78 yards to the Jags last week. This scenario screams GPP target and Jones will likely be my GPP pivot from Henry.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)

I refuse to be the guy who misses the Chubb ceiling game at sub 5% ownership. The last two weeks his volume has been there with 22 touches in each contest but he has missed the endzone in each game so for a player like him it is a disappointment. With no Landry the volume should stay where it is, his talent is undeniable and he has not gone 3 games without a score since Week 9 of 2019. The Chargers also happen to be the worst team in terms of rushing yards allowed on the slate (yes, worse than Houston) allowing 139.5 yards, and are 25th in rushing DVOA. Something has to give here.

Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)

Also Consider: Austin Ekeler (Cleveland has a ton of potential defensive injuries), Ezekiel Elliott

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)

Here we go again. Henry is in yet another smash spot and should be a staple in your cash game. I’m not going to waste my time or yours going through the why of this one. Henry against the Jags, lock it in your cash contests, and call it a day.

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)

I am a little nervous here but it appears that Urban Meyer has learned that you should not drop your rookie QB back 50 times a game and that having a beast like J-Rob carrying the load is a good thing. The great thing too as the Titans might have the worst defense in the NFL this year. No doubt they have the worst secondary. In each of the last two games, Robinson has gotten at least 20 touches and has been targeted no less than twice in any game this season while averaging 5 yards per carry. The Titan’s rushing yards allowed is a bit deceiving as the Jets can’t run if their life depended on it and Indi chose week three to abandon their run game. I might not get here personally because I am going to have a lot of Marvin Jones (Titans have allowed more 30+ yard passes than any team in the NFL), but if you are playing cash games and not using Marvin he needs to be in strong consideration.

D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)

If you are just checking the box score from last week you would assume that something happened with Swift as he finished the day with only eight carries and four catches on the day. But the truth is the Lions were the unfortunate team that got to play the Bears without Nagy calling the shots and they played an inspired football game. Swift actually saw a 73% snap share, the highest on the season. I fully expect him to get back to his 12-14 carries and 6-8 targets against a Vikings defense that has been hemorrhaging points to running backs. Chubb and Hunt combined for 169 yards on the ground last week, 88 to Carson and Collins, and 127 yards to Joe Mixon. They also have allowed one rushing TD in each game this year. The Lions are bad, no doubt. But, they are surprisingly competitive for those who have not had a chance to see them in action and Goff has looked much better than I expected so kudos to him for proving us all wrong this season. With this being a 50 total game with Vikings as 10 point favorites Swifty is going to get all of the work he can handle catching out of the backfield Sunday, making him PPR gold for your cash games.

Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)

Verify Dalvin Cook is out before locking him in but once you do you lock Mattison into your cash games and you do not think about it. Detroit has not been able to slow any running back this season much less stop.

Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)

Sucks that DraftKings priced him up but Damien throughout his career has produced whenever given an opportunity to start averaging over 15 points in PPR formats. In addition to that when trailing his yards per carry (4.7), yards per target (6.5), and catch rate (83.7%) all see an uptick when trailing and the Raiders should be able to take control of this contest as 5.5 point favorites. It is in no way sexy, but for cash games, the safe floor with a decent ceiling is exactly what you need for your cash game back.

Also Consider: Tony Pollard (if no Zeke, and he is a lock in that case), Chubba Hubbard, Najee Harris (tough matchup but he’s cash viable based on PPR value), Saquon Barkley

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5: Top QB’s & Stacks Breakdown with A Through Z

Adam Zibuda 3 years ago

written by Adam Zibuda

Week 4 was another intriguing one across the NFL, as we had a variety of storylines, with the headliner being TB12 and his return to Foxboro. That game certainly did not disappoint, and neither did my QBs and stacks, so let’s try to keep the train rolling this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most DFS players, I have yet to roster Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD), but if there is a week to target him then this is absolutely that week. Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings offense will be facing off against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 31st in total defense DVOA, which is pretty similar to what their expectation was coming into the season. It is no secret that this team is bottom of the barrel on both sides of the football, and we should look to get exposure to whatever offense is facing them each week. They also clock in at 29th in DvP against the QB position. Outside of week 4, Cousins has had three games with great production, especially at this current price tag. In the first three weeks of the season, Cousins exceeded 300 passing yards twice and the one time that he did not, he had 35 rushing yards and three passing TDs. Kirk has 9 TDs against only one interception so far this season, and has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks from a points scored perspective. I am hoping that the snoozer of a game against the Browns keeps the masses off of him for week 5 of the NFL, as he is one of the best tournament plays out there.

B. Another team that struggles to limit the damage against opposing quarterbacks is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) draws the best possible matchup for a quarterback, as the Jaguars have a bottom tier defense any way that you slice it. Ranking 30th in total DVOA, 32nd against the pass, and 29th in adjusted sack rate, the Titans should be able to bounce back after a shockingly pathetic loss to the New York Jets. In week 5 of the NFL, Tennessee should have star receiver A.J. Brown back, but Julio Jones is questionable as has been the case for every single game the last few years. Tannehill should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a weak defensive unit that should not take much time to dismantle. I would prefer to pay the extra $100 on DK and get up to Cousins, as he has three games of 20+ fantasy points compared to just one for the Titans passer, however if the Cousins ownership comes in higher than expected then this is a great choice at the same price range.

C. A team that is more under the radar this Sunday due to a lower team total than quite a few other options is the New Orleans Saints, who start a very boom or bust quarterback in Jameis Winston ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD). Despite facing a Washington Football team that ranks 28th in total DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass, and DEAD LAST (32nd) in DvP against the quarterback position. According to the numbers, this is the best matchup for an opposing quarterback, and yet I expect Winston to carry nearly no ownership. This price on DraftKings is honestly unbelievable, but that is what happens when someone puts together three awful games in a row. I expect that we see week 1 Jameis come out to play in this spot, and with an 8/2 TD/interception ratio, he has not been as careless with the ball as in years past. This is definitely a risky play given the form, but at this price and ownership in this matchup, I think that having an overweight approach to Winston is a must.

The Stacks

A. This Vikings team has two clear top dogs at the WR position along with a clear top dog at the RB position. However, it is not all obvious and easy here, as Dalvin Cook has been nursing an ankle injury and even though he played last week, he only saw 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in an affair where his team could only muster seven points. I will be avoiding this rushing attack due to the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s workload, but I would not blame you for taking some shots on him in lower-stakes tournaments. As far as week 5 targets go, Jefferson only has two more catches than Thielen on the season, yet he is $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings and will be much chalkier as well. If choosing one of these guys for tournaments, it absolutely needs to be Thielen, but I am of course fine with targeting both of these pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, after rostering Swift last week and watching the disaster that is the Lions offense in the red zone, I will be staying far away from any players on this team, including Swift and Hockenson, on any slate that is not a showdown this season.

B. As I mentioned above, we will need to take a wait and see approach with this team for week 5 of the NFL since Julio Jones is listed as questionable. This will likely be the case this entire season unless Julio is ruled out for an extended period or takes a trip to the IR. Regardless of the status of Julio, we do know that A.J. Brown is our top option for any Tennessee stacks, and with the number of passes that Derrick Henry has been catching so far this season I am more than fine adding him to these stacks as well. If Julio suits up then of course he is another good addition to our teams, but if he is out then I will keep my Titans exposure to just the two aforementioned players. As we saw in week 4, even with Brown and Jones out of the lineup, the rest of the receiving options on this team are painful. The tricky thing about targeting teams that have awful defenses is that they often have awful offenses as well. That is the case for most of my stacks, however with D.J. Chark suffering an injury last week, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault both enter the conversation as possible bring-back options. I would limit my teams to just one of these two as opposed to both, since this Jaguars squad just does not have any real upside.

C. To wrap things up, we have my bold call of the week as I look to stack up the New Orleans Saints in their matchup against the Washington Football Team. With only a 22-23 point team total on the week and three poor performances in a row from Winston, I would be shocked if this team was even in the top five in terms of popularity for week 5. That is music to any NFL tournament player’s ears, and as long as Taysom Hill does not continue his vulture spree, we could be looking at a big payday in this matchup. The tricky thing here is choosing a pass catcher to stack with Winston outside of Kamara. This is a rare scenario where we actually have a much more reliable option for our bring-back than we do for our main stack. Terry McLaurin is the clear top dog for WFT, and with the Logan Thomas injury we also can target Ricky Seals-Jones since he played 100% of the snaps after Thomas went down. As far as the Saints, we can look to Marquez Callaway if we must, but I am also fine sticking to just Winston and Kamara for Sunday.

3 years ago 0 comments

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DFS NFL

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Cardinals -6

Captains:

Chalk: Kyler Murray, $18,000:

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 :

Contrarian #1: Aaron Rodgers, $17,100 :

Contrarian #2: Robert Tonyan, $6,900 :

Contrarian#3: Christian Kirk, $10,500:

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Aaron Jones, $7,500DK/$8,500FD: 4-6%

Joe Mixon $6,500DK/$7,200FD: 5-7%

James Connor, $5,600DK/$6,500FD: 3-5%

WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24

Cash:

Derrick Henry, $9,200DK/$11,000FD, :

Darrell Henderson, $6,600DK/$8,000FD :

Chuba Hubbard, $6,100DK/$7,300FD :

Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5

Captains:

Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:

Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:

Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:

Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:

Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Javonte Williams, $5,000DK.$5,600:

Dalvin Cook, $7,700DK/$8,800:

D’Andre Swift, $6,300DK/$7,100FD:

WDS: Week 6 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.17

Cash:

Austin Ekeler, $7,900DK/$8,400FD:

Khalil Herbert, $4,600DK/$5,500FD:

Kareem Hunt, $6,200DK/$7,400FD:

Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3

Captains:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill

Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:

Kickers and defenses:

GPP:

Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)

Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)

D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)

Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)

Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)

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