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DFS Golf

2023 Sony Open Preview: Everything you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips Russell Henley — Russell Henley can secure another victory at the 2023 Sony Open

Ladies and gentlemen, we are back in Hawaii for the second week of the PGA Tour season for 2023 and the first full field event for the year! Bring back the cut sweat and deep-dives! This is your 2023 Sony Open Preview.

A great start to the year for us at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. We tipped the winner Jon Rahm live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. Rahm was standing in the fairway on the par 5 15th with just 157 yards in for his second shot. For Rahm, that is just a pitching wedge and was a great opportunity for a birdie if not an eagle. Morikawa meanwhile had found the bunker on 14. He had also seen his once 9 shot lead crumble into just 3 shots. We saw value at the $9.50 on offer. Rahm indeed made eagle, Morikawa made birdie, and we cash 5 units @ $9.50.

We also cash in a Top 5 on Max Homa with 1 unit @ $7.60. Tipped at 33/1 pre-tournament, Homa made a sluggish start. Two rounds of 3-under 70 saw him languishing in the bottom third of the field. However, a 10-under 63 followed by a 7-under 66 saw him jump into 3rd place.

This week, the tour hops over to Honolulu for the Sony Open. This historic event has attracted a reasonably strong field headlined by Sungjae I’m, Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and rising prodigy Tom Kim. Let’s get into it!

2023 Sony Open Course Analysis

Waialae Country Club plays host this week in a substantially different test to what golfers faced last week. Whereas Planatation presented wide open fairways with non-existent rough, Waialae presents a narrow and tricky course.

Multiple doglegs and narrow fairways and overhanging trees which must be avoided to open up access to the greens. It should come as no surprise that driving accuracy is at a premium. In fact, this course ranks within the top 5 where driving accuracy is a predictive factor.

It is also worth noting that the rough has been allowed to grow out to 3 inches from just 2.25 inches last year. That may not sound overly imposing but bear in mind we are dealing with Bermuda grass here. Bermuda rough can really grab onto the club face as well as produce flyer lies. In fact, 3 inches is the longest the tour allows Bermuda rough. Only two other tournaments last year had 3-inch Bermuda rough, the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. You want to put even more emphasis on driving accuracy this week compared to previous iterations of the tournament.

Alongside driving accuracy, SG: ATG is a far more predictive factor than at other courses. Precisely why this may be is somewhat a mystery. Most likely is that Hawaiian tradewinds are one of the main defences to this course. The other being that when puns are tucked away on these relatively large greens getting up and down becomes a premium.

Comparison Courses and 2023 Sony Open Course Form

We are somewhat fortunate this week. It can be really tricky to predict what golfers are playing well after the New Year break. Many have not played competitively since the RSM Classic some 55 days ago.

To our benefit, Waialae has the 2nd highest correlation between prior performance and future success. The only course more correlated is Augusta National. This is perhaps highlighted best by the fact that in 2013 Russell Henley was the first debutant to win this event since its inception in 1965. You want to heavily consider prior form at this course over any recent performances.

There are also heavy correlations between El Cameleon and Waialae Country Club. In 15 iterations of the Mayakoba Championship, 6 have also won the Sony Open. Henley was the most recent to affirm this link. He completed this double with his recent victory in November complimenting the aforementioned win here in 2013. Further, he was runner-up when just missing out to Matsuyama in a play-off here last year.

Other courses with correlation are the RBC Heritage and Sea Island Golf Club. Both are coastal course with wind exposure. They are also positional golf courses, where finding the short grass is further emphasised with wanting to find the correct side of the fairway. There are also tentative links with Colonial Country Club.

Weather for the 2023 Sony Open

A slight advantage looks to have developed for those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM this week.

High winds were experienced on course on Wednesday. Thursday morning now looks likely to suffer from those high winds. This is looking to settle from 1pm onwards, with Friday morning also looking calmer than Friday afternoon.

I have the current advantage at approximately 0.5 strokes on average. As such, this should not be the sole factor in your decision making. However, if you’re struggling to decide between two golfers, you should favour the golfer teeing it up Thursday afternoon.

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley

2.5pts E/W $26.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)

Andrew Putnam

1pt E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.30

Denny McCarthy

1pt E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Aaron Rai

1pt E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

David Lipsky

1pt E/W $151.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $6.00

David Lingmerth

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
2pts Top 40 $3.00

Zac Blair

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60

Kazuki Higa

0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
4pts Top 40 $3.40

Golfer Profiles

Russell Henley – Your 2023 Sony Open favourite

Given the above, it should be no surprise that Henley headlines our tips. Henley has extremely strong links to Waialae. Prior course form including a win and a somewhat disappointing runner-up finish in the 2022 playoff. The November 6th victory should fill him with confidence arriving at a course that he has previously played so well at.

I’m not a huge fan of trends, but for what it is worth 5 of the last 6 winners of this event have competed the week prior at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This is somewhat unsurprising, has by its own definition the Sentry comprises some of the best players on tour. More noteworthy for me was that Henley finished in the Top 5 for SG: APP last week and 3rd for Driving Accuracy. That ball-striking in a high-class field is too difficult to ignore.

You can read more of Henley’s love for Waialae in this recent interview here.

As always with Henley, the result will come down to his putter. Anything at field average or better should see him towards the top of the leaderboard for the 2023 Sony Open.

Andrew Putnam

Putnam enjoyed a solid finish to 2022. He followed up of 5th and 23rd in the first two Fed Ex Cup Playoff events with a 12th in Las Vegas and a 2nd in a high quality ZOZO Championship field (an event that last year’s Sony Open winner Matsuyama won in the 2022 season).

Putnam holds a 2nd here from 2019, so ticks the prior course form box. He arrives here a much-improved golfer to 3 years ago.

Denny McCarthy

Having opened at odds of 45/1, Denny has drifted to 60/1. Seemingly, this is only due to money flowing to players like Harman, Poston, and Kuchar near him in the market.

The highly regarded putter is also very accurate off the tee. A recent 6th place at the Bermuda Championship hints at correlated tropical and exposed course form. He holds a 15th at the Mayakoba last year, a 10th and 8th at the RSM Classic, and 13th at the RBC Heritage.

Denny’s approach game has been his weakest aspect since joining the PGA Tour in 2018. 2022 was his first year where his SG: APP was at PGA Tour average. His start to 2023 has seen him gain on approach across his first 7 events and suggests an improving golfer that may go well at the 2023 Sony Open.

Aaron Rai

The talented Englishman has yet to make much of a mark since hopping the ditch to join the PGA Tour. Rai began his debut DP World Tour season with two victories and nine Top 20 finishes. He followed this up with further wins in 2019 and 2020. You would have to think he would be nearing double digit wins had he remained on the easier DP World Tour. However, with a Top 10 finish on the PGA Tour often surpassing the winner’s prize in European events, you can understand the decision.

Rai’s game does continue to show signs of improvement. He has been above PGA Tour average for SG: APP for the last three seasons. Most importantly, he is now also gaining with the putter and in SG: ATG. He has gained in Driving Accuracy on the Tour average at a rate of double digits at most seasons he has played.

A 15th at Mayakoba in 2022 and a 16th at the RSM Classic are further links to here. A 2022 missed cut at his sole appearance here can be somewhat forgiven by the fact it is so hard to tell where a player’s game is at following the off-season. The credentials and profile are there, and at triple figure odds present value for a golfer who should be priced at 80/1 or shorter.

David Lipsky – Your 2023 Sony Open best value

Lipsky presents as one of the best values on the board in my models, currently available at 150/1 when his fair pricing should be in the realm of just 100/1.

A 2022 missed cut can again be somewhat forgiven considering it was his 6th missed cut in a row during a terrible stretch of form. He has been much improved of late with a 22nd at Houston Open and a Top 10 finish at the Mayakoba in November. A 6th at the Mexico Open and 7th at the Corales Puntacana further highlight positive tropical course form.

Lipsky gains on driving accuracy, approach, and ATG in an ideal recipe for this venue. His performance, much like Henley, will come down to his performance with the putter this week.

David Lingmerth

Lingmerth makes his first appearance here since 2017, at a course he finished 13th in 2016. He risked losing his tour card towards the end of last year, where a comprehensive victory in the Korn Ferry Tour playoff event could well stoke the fire.

A 5th at Colonial provides an indication heading into the Sony Open. Further, a fantastic 8th place at the Mayakoba in November and a 10th at the RSM Classic confirm an obvious choice to tee it up this week. The afternoon tee-time Thursday is a further positive for a golfer available at 200/1.

Zac Blair

Having opened at a extremely overpriced 300/1, Blair continues to present value as an outside chance at the 200/1 still on offer.

Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July last year, and immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to the injury, Blair had a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. He also holds a 3rd and 6th placed finish around Waialae in 2015 and 2016. Now back to full health, he is worth a flyer at long odds for what would be an emotional comeback victory.

Kazuki Higa

Finally, we wind up our picks with the up-and-coming Japanese star Kazuki Higa. Higa won a notable four times on the Japan Golf Tour in 2022. He already proved last year he can jump across to the higher tours, when he played the BMW International Open and immediately finished 10th.

The most recent of those four victories was also the most impressive. The Dunlop Phoenix Tournament always attracts a talented international field. When winning the 2022 event, Higa defeated some big names. That included this week’s favourite Tom Kim, LIV Golf rumoured recruit Mito Pereira, World Ranked top 50 Scott Vincent, Aaron Wise, and Corey Conners.

Higa looks destined to advance to the PGA Tour or DP World Tour shortly. A high finish this week would go a long way to accelerating that progression and at 300/1 he is well worth consideration.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

Golf Betting 101: How To Pick More Winning Golfers

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting — Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WinDailySports

Make sure you SUBSCRIBE and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

This is the only show where the audience draft a team live to go against the experts! It is essential viewing to hear our thoughts and favourite plays, as well as the iconic first-round leader picks and Spencer’s famous super in-depth course breakdowns.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

https://discord.com/invite/windaily

Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy

Meteorology

When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!

Agronomy

You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.

Summary

There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports Sports Betting PGA

Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Your Essential Guide to PGA Daily Fantasy Golf

Golf season is back baby! Whether you are a Golf DFS rookie or a seasoned veteran just looking for that little extra edge; welcome. These are our Golf DFS Top 5 Tips to make this your winning season.

2022 was a year full of surprises. From all the LIV Golf drama to some new stars emerging. The 2023 golf season promises to be one of the best yet! We expect to see a large amount of golf interest this year.

With the majority of tournaments spanning 4 days, Golf DFS gives you some of the best value for your entertainment. And there remains a massive opportunity in golf DFS right now!

It is fair to say that NFL, MLB, and NBA markets have reached saturation. Players are the most educated they have ever been, resources and data are readily available, and the markets are sharp. Finding an edge over your competition is extremely difficult. Although golf DFS is heading in that direction, there remains gaps.

And that is where YOU can take advantage.

What makes Golf DFS so difficult?

Navigating your first season of Golf DFS can be confusing!

With fields often surpassing 140+ golfers, the majority of DFS players are simply not going to put the time and effort in required doing a full in-depth analysis of all possible options.

There is a new course every week, which will change the best golfer profile to look for in your players.

It is also a sport heavily affected by weather, perhaps more so than in any other sport.

And with somewhat complicated analytics with data that can be difficult to find, that represents opportunity. Hence, we have given you our Golf DFS Top 5 Tips to get you started!

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WinDailySports

Make sure you are SUBSCRIBED and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

https://discord.com/invite/windaily

Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and pivots to plays to help you craft the perfect line-up every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf DFS Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth analysis and picks for the tournament. I particularly see edges in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles can be found on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Golf DFS Top 5 Tips

Tip 1: Making the Cut is Key in Golf DFS

If you are new to golf, most tournaments will have a cut after the 2nd round in which roughly half the field will take no further part in the tournament. Obviously, you want as many of your players to be making the cut to ensure you are making the most of your point scoring potential.

For cash games and smaller GPP contests, you will want to look for safer players who are more likely to make the cut. You are much better placed to have majority of your players that play all 4 rounds and finish in the middle of the pack than 2 players finish in the top ten but the rest miss the cut entirely.

For large GPP tournaments, you want to look for upside. Looking for players who are a little more volatile may not be a bad thing, especially with heavy prize weightings to the top spots in the tournament. This is where Steven’s fantastic projections come into play, allowing you to find positions to leverage your line-up against the rest of the pack. You will want to look for players likely to make the cut, but also with more upside to finish towards the top of the leaderboard.

Tip 2: Compare Bookmaker Odds to Golf DFS Pricing

Bookmakers are in the business of analysing and projecting likely outcomes of tournaments. It is their job to reduce risk and provide as accurate as possible prediction of who has the most win equity any given week. Chances are, if you are a casual player then they are absolutely doing far more in-depth analysis than you. Use this to your advantage.

You can often find situations where a bookmaker may have a golfer priced as a much better chance to win a tournament than his DFS pricing suggests. For example, we recently identified an opportunity where a regular PGA Tour golfer qualified for entry into a DP World Tour event in Monday qualifying. Typically, these golfers are priced cheaply having needed to win a qualifying tournament to gain entry. As the PGA Tour is typically a lot stronger than DP World Tour fields, the golfer was priced in the top 30 most likely to win the tournament. However, DFS markets priced him as a typical Monday qualifier at just $6,700 and in the bottom 20% in the field. He finished 13th in the tournament and provided huge leverage for your line-up.

The above is an extreme example but provides an illustration of the potential edge that can be gained in looking at odds and comparing to DFS markets. You want to identify situations where there is a significant difference between a bookmakers implied win probability and DFS pricing.

Tip 3: Meteorology and Agronomy

First, check the weather! It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few DFS players will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Tee-times are typically grouped between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time.

If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

I use a variety of different resources to provide the best weather forecasting possible in the lead-up to a tournament. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord in the 24 hours prior to tournament start for the most accurate information available and to give yourself an edge!

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate than other options on the market. We use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can.

Tip 4: Course Analysis, Course Form, and Incoming Form

Each week, the PGA Tour and DP World Tour will move to a different location and hence a different course. Unlike in any other sport, where the field of play remains generally the same, golf courses by their very nature are designed to be completely different to others. You won’t want to play the exact same golfers every single week.

Course Analysis

Some courses will favour a “bomb and gouge” approach. Typically, they will feature wide open fairways with little penalty for straying too wide. This will favour longer drivers, who can then give themselves a shorter (and easier) 2nd shot given their extra distance off the tee.

Other trickier courses with tight fairways and smaller greens will favour a more accurate player who will keep the ball in play and avoid dropped shots. To maximise your golf DFS score, a completely different golfer profile may be required from one week to the next.

Firmer courses will often favour a player with a higher ball flight. They can land the ball softly on the green to allow a shorter putt. Tree-lined fairways to protect from the wind can add to this advantage. Exposed courses may favour players with a lower ball flight that can keep their shot low and away from the higher winds.

Links courses (typically, but not exclusively, found in the UK & Ireland) offer another challenge on their own. These ultra-exposed coastal courses require a unique set of skills. These undulating courses often experience high weather variance, have firmer greens with little rough surrounding, and deep bunkers as protection. You do find a number of links-course specialist. They may present little incoming form but then perform extremely well when returning to a link course.

Course Form

Course form does matter. It may seem self-evident that a player who has played well on a certain course previously may do so again. Many courses have proven to have a high correlation between prior success as a predictive factor of future success.

However, this comes with a word of caution. Some courses display little correlation between prior course form and future success. This can be for a variety of reasons. For example, trickier courses with lots of penalty areas will provide volatility. Simple luck and the bounce of a ball can have a significant effect on outcomes. Low scoring and easier courses may mean that simply whoever putted best that week was able to finish higher on the leaderboard. The experts in the WinDaily team are here to help you identify when course form matters most.

Incoming Form and Golf DFS

Incoming form also plays a factor. If you can find a golf with excellent course form and who has played well recently, this is obviously beneficial. It will likely also come with a high priced golfer with plenty of ownership.

This also comes with many caveats. Many golf DFS players will fall victim to recency bias. They will believe how a player played last week is a sure-fire method to predict how they will play this week. Yet, the next tournament may be played on a completely different style of course. Also, the manner of scoring matters, which is where strokes gained data comes into play.

Tip 5: Using Stokes Gained Metrics

I will provide a more detailed analysis of Strokes Gained data in my Golf Betting Tips & Advice article. But, in short, Strokes Gained is the start of a change in the statistical analysis of golf akin to that which changed the face of baseball.

Previously, using golf DFS stats were somewhat archaic and did not provide an accurate measure of future success. For example, take Greens in Regulation, which is a percentage of greens a golfer manages to hit compared to par and assuming two putts (i.e. a Par 3 in one approach shot, a Par 4 in two approach shots, and a Par 5 in 3 approach shots or less).

This provides a little less information than we may want. Two golfers sharing 70% Greens in Regulation may have hit the same number of greens. However, Golfer A was on average 20’ away from the pin. Golfer B was on average 35’ away from the pin. Obviously, Golfer A has shorter putts and had better approach play.

What is Strokes Gained?

Strokes gained data flips this narrative on its head. We can now accurately identify just how golfers achieved their given scores. Stokes gained provides a breakdown of how a golfer performed compared to the field and where precisely their advantage came from.

Let’s take a basic application of this concept with an example of a golfer who has a putt from 20’. A player in the field may take on average 1.5 putts to get the ball in the hole. The golfer makes the putt, and he has therefore gained +0.5 stokes putting compared to the field.

Below are the most used Strokes Gained metrics:

Strokes Gained Total (SG: TOT)

The total number of strokes gained compared to the field. This will perfectly resemble the leaderboard. E.g. a golfer shoots 65, field average was 70, their stokes gained total would be +5.00.

Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SG: OTT)

The total number of shots gained from all tee shots on par 4s and par 5s. This covers all shots made with drivers and woods (occasionally irons) off the tee.

Strokes Gained Approach (SG: APP)

The total number of strokes gained from all tee shots on par 3s and all shots further than 30 yards from the green on par 4s and par 5s. Essentially, all strokes gained from iron shots.

Strokes Gained Around The Green (SG: ATG)

The total number of strokes gained from all shots within 30 yards of the green without being on the green. Covers chips and bunker shots.

Strokes Gained Putting (SG: PUTT)

The total number of strokes gained for all shots on the greens.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG: T2G)

The total number of strokes gained to the field for all shots excluding putting. This can prove useful given that putting is the most volatile and unpredictable metric.

Strokes Gained Ball-Striking (SG: BS)

All strokes gained from both SG: OTT and SG: APP combined.

Using Strokes Gained for Golf DFS

Using the above analytics, we can use this to assist us in identifying golfers that fit a particular profile which may prove successful on any given course.

In general, statistics such as SG: OTT and SG: APP tend to be “stickier”. A golfer who has made improvement in the two ball-striking categories is more likely to be able to maintain those improvements.

This ties in with the above caution about incoming form. Say a golfer finished in the top 20 the prior week. However, he gained a huge number of his strokes compared to the field with the putter that week. We would not necessarily see this as a strong predictor of future success. Putting is volatile and very difficult to foresee when improvements may happen on any given week. This is not a hard and fast rule, as there are undoubtedly better putters than others. But we are here to assist you in identifying the difference.

Summary

Golf provides a hugely entertaining way to play DFS, providing great value for money once you’ve entered a contest. There are massive opportunities available for those who are willing to put the effort in. But, as you can see above, there are a huge number of factors which come in making these decisions.

With large fields to choose from, there are countless hours of research required with many possible combinations and choices to be made every week. It can be overwhelming when you start! We are here to help by doing the hard yards for you and make it easy.

If you’ve made it this far through the article, why not considering giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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Want another free article? Check out our “Golf Betting 101: How To Select More Winning Golfers” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

win golf DFS — Get that winning feeling from your golf DFS line-ups with WinDaily Sports!

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In a rare spectacle for golf fans this week we will be treated to players from the DP World Tour, PGA Tour, and the outcasts of LIV Golf all teeing it up at the same venue. Given a temporary stay being granted at the Scottish Open pending full trial, the DP World Tour have conceded allowing players who have sufficient OWGR points to qualify be allowed to play. This is written with sufficient bitterness. Many of those golfers have never bothered to play a DP World Tour event prior.

Whether this provides any additional motivation is hard to tell. On the one hand, players who have remained loyal to the structure of golf will doing their utmost to prevent a difficult to advertise LIV Golf victor. In contrast, this week provides an extremely rare opportunity for the dozen or so LIV Golf players to earn some OWGR points. All in all, I would say this factor ends up even.

It does, however, provide an intriguing backdrop leading into the DP World Tour’s marquee event. Alongside the season ending DP World Tour Championship, this often produces the strongest field of the year. And with no other notable golf tournaments being played this week, the entire golfing world’s eyes will be fixated upon Surrey.

Who should you bet at the BMW PGA Championship? This is your weekly DP World Tour deep-dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and your BMW PGA Championship golf betting tips.

Last Week Recap

Another promising week for our tips, who put themselves close enough to contention although eventually never threatening the lead. Daan Huizing was the pick of the bunch. Tipped at 100/1 he closed with the joint low round of the week of 62 (-9). He returned a Top 8 partial place payout at $20 ($5.25 after dead-heat deductions) and a Top 20 at $6.50.

Jack Senior also cashed a Top 20 ticket at $4.50 ($3.38 after dead-heat deductions). A further three players (Olesen, Coetzee, and Kawamura) all finished agonisingly close in 22nd, just one shot outside a Top 20. As always, it was great to have so many players close to the top of the leaderboard. It is only a matter of time before another gets over the line come Sunday.

Made in Himmerland tips were posted here as well as in Discord: https://windailysports.com/made-in-himmerland-golf-betting-tips-your-dp-world-tour-deep-dive/?ref=31

Course Analysis

Wentworth Club plays host this week, as it has at all BMW PGA Championship events since 1984. Obviously, this means we have copious amounts of data at our fingertips. However, it is worth noting a couple of caveats to this. First, the course underwent some significant renovations in 2016. This saw many greens completely redesigned and a shift to bentgrass surfaces. Secondly, the tournament shifted from May to the current September slot in 2019.

The 7,267-yard par 72 does provide a sterner test than recent winning scores perhaps suggest. Two of those victories, by Willett and Hatton, also came several shots better than the chasing pack. This tree-lined course provides a test of all facets of the game. It is worth noting this is a significant change to the mainly links style courses we have seen lately on the DP World Tour.

Accurate driving and ability to shape the ball off the tee is imperative. The course has never really been overpowered yet, and placement on these severely sloping fairways is always a great place to start.

Greens are small and often multi-tiered requiring pinpoint iron play. Guarded by multiple deep bunkers, reports are that the grass area around the greens have been shaved shorter this year so may prove slightly less penal. Recent wet weather should be offset on greens by the sub-air system installed during aforementioned renovations. Rather uniquely, the course finishes with back-to-back par 5s which can provide for a riveting finish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXqOmnqGo28

The best starting point is to find excellent iron players who also are driving accuracy positive. A modicum of scrambling may be required. A bonus is positive performances on other bentgrass surfaces.

Weather Forecast

Weather does look to be a potential factor this week. This is made somewhat more difficult by all groups going off the first tee, taking advantage of the longer daylight hours in the UK at this time of year. Make sure you are specifically checking each players tee-times. AM/PM waves can be slightly more difficult to identify this week.

Thursday AM should provide the best conditions of the first two days. Light prevailing winds of 5-8mph alongside gusts of 10-15 mph is mild on a tree-lined course. There may also be some benefit from rain the previous day and light rain overnight. Winds should begin picking up from midday with prevailing winds of 11-14mph and gusts at 25-29mph. This should provide the most difficult conditions of the first two days.

Friday AM should again start calm at 5-10mph prevailing winds and 9-14mph gusts. Inclement weather will arrive slightly earlier from 10am, with prevailing winds of 10-12mph and gusts of 19-22mph. Rain and possible thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity for Friday PM. Any delay to play should see much better conditions on Saturday morning. Weather is predicted to be calm for the weekend.

I am targeting two windows of weather this week. Those teeing off their first-round before 9am on Thursday should enjoy the best conditions of the opening rounds. They then go off in the Friday PM which looks comparatively calmer, with possibility of thunderstorm delays also a positive. The other window is 10:50am-12pm Thursday tee-times. They should have some calm conditions to start their rounds but then go off first thing on Friday AM.

https://www.windy.com/51.399/-0.592?51.375,-0.592,12,m:e4Oaf8b

Comp Courses

Wentworth Club
Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Emirates Golf Club
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Mount Juliet Estate

BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Shane Lowry
– 3pts E/W $17.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Branden Grace
– 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.30 (Bet365)

Jordan Smith
– 1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.75 (Bet365)

Fabrizio Zanotti
– 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Antoine Rozner
– 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)

Sami Valimaki
– 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (William Hill, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Justin Walters
– 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 30 $4.75 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Shane Lowry

The top players all earn their odds and are rightfully priced where they are in the pecking order of chances this week. You don’t need me to tell you that McIlroy, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick are justified favourites. If you do, we have bigger problems to talk about.

I start my betting card with Shane Lowry, who will be looking to stake his Ryder Cup claims in the first week of points becoming available. Lowry’s approach play has been phenomenal. He sits 3rd for SG: Approach for both the last 3 months and 12 months in this field.

Lowry successfully navigated the requisite tough driving when finishing 2nd at the Honda Classic earlier this year. He was last seen in Europe finishing 9th at another tree-lined course (Mount Juliet Estate) that demands accurate driving. In that week, he scrambled just to make the cut after a very poor first round and finishing with 4 consecutive birdies in his 2nd round. It again underlines the level he can perform at when dropping to DP World Tour level that he managed to finish with a top 10.

Further, his performances here have been excellent. With 6 top-15 finishes prior to renovations and the shift to the September dates, Lowry has turned up for 11-13-17 in the last three renditions at Wentworth. There is plenty of other comp course form at Emirates Golf Club, Golfclub Munchen Eichenried, and Montgomerie Maxx Royal.

Arguably, he arrives after what has been his best year on the PGA Tour despite not having a win to his name. A 12th last time out at the BMW Championship was a welcome return to form. He was very unlucky to miss out by one place to the Tour Championship.

8:45am tee-time Thursday suits perfectly to take advantage of those conditions. At 17/1 I have him slightly over valued, where a fair price should be 13/1.

Branden Grace

It galls me to have to finally relent and put a LIV golfer up as part of my tips. Unfortunately, Grace’s credentials prove too tough to pass over at the generous odds that are on offer.

Since moving to LIV, Grace has finished 3-W-13-12. What that is actually worth is tough to judge, however a noticeable jump in driving accuracy of late is noteworthy from what limited stats we get from those events. His other recent appearance was a 24th at the Scottish Open in a world class field.

Grace has an excellent record at Wentworth, with 4 finishes of 11th or better here. Notably, he has not played as well here in the latest renditions. This is somewhat offset when comparing the incoming form there, where a multitude missed cuts and a best prior finish of 30th meaning he was arriving in some fairly average form.

The 12pm Thursday tee-time may prove tough on the first day, but if he is able to stay in touch he is greeted with an early start Friday to compensate. The perceived improvement in ball striking from driving accuracy stats are complimented by his proven scrambling ability and above average putting.

Jordan Smith

I’m tipping an Englishman with my next pick, with 7 of the last 13 winners being locals. With 13/17 of his tournaments this year resulting in a top 25 finish, it is easy to imagine Smith’s name towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

At his best, Smith is long and accurate off the tee and excels with his iron play. The difference between a top 25 and a top 5 for him often comes down to the flatstick. However, I am happy to embrace that volatility and hope to catch him on a spike week at a course where he has finished 13th and 24th with far worse incoming form.

At comp courses this year Smith has a 9th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 21st at the British Masters, and 8th at the BMW International Open. He has also finished 3rd there before, on another course demanding excellent iron play and where we saw renowned ball striker Victor Perez victorious this year. Ranked 13th this year in the DP World Tour rankings, Smith has a genuine shot at making a Ryder Cup team if he continues this upward trajectory.

Fabrizio Zanotti

The last time we tipped Zanotti was at the Irish Open, where he duly finished 4th around the similar tree-lined course of Mount Juliet Estate. As always with the Paraguayan, the difference to victory came with the putter. Since then, Zanotti has mainly played links tournaments which is certainly not a typical strength. As such, his recent finishes of 16th and 12th should actually be read under a more positive lens as his excellent iron play continues to impress.

Alongside that 4th, Zanotti also finished 8th at The Belfry during the British Masters and 18th at the Dubai Desert Classic. The Emirates Golf Club bentgrass greens prove analogous to here, and he managed to gain more than 7 strokes putting to the field in his best putting performance of the year.

Accuracy off the tee and SG: Approach is always a great starting point around Wentworth. This proved to be the case last year, when Zanotti finished 20th when arriving in pretty average form. 11:10am tee-time on Thursday should allow 9 holes under reasonable conditions, followed by 7am Friday under much calmer skies. If he can combine the elite ball-striking with prior bentgrass putting performances, the 80/1 on offer could prove extreme value.

Antoine Rozner

In terms of great ball-strikers, Rozner also holds significant appeal having gained strokes on approach in his last 8 tournaments. This includes being the best player in this field on approach over the last 30 days and 15th for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. That is a lot of value for a 110/1 golfer.

Those recent performances leads to incoming form of 13th and 4th arriving here. That is far better than the 52nd he arrived with on debut here last year, hence easily forgiven. Instead there is appeal from the 13th at the Irish Open, 15th at the BMW International, and 9th last year at the Emirates (where he gained multiple strokes putting).

The excellent approach play is complimented by gaining a massive 20% on the field for driving accuracy when last seen. That suggest his ball-striking is right at its peaks of late, and anything like a mediocre putting performance could see him go very close to the title. 7:50am Thursday tee-time only adds to the appeal for the talented Frenchman whose game is on the rise.

Sami Valimaki

Having just turned 24 years old, we are still finding out exactly where Valimaki’s game is heading. What we do know is this talented young golfer won multiple times at lower levels and won near immediately upon reaching the DP World Tour. In that debut season, he also managed a 13th here in 2020 in his first look at the track when just 21 years old.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1234107065431400449?s=20&t=ar9yZv9aNcec0WsCBf9GTg

Valimaki has never displayed much links form in his first few seasons. So, much akin to Zanotti, recent results of 16th at the Cazoo Classic and 24th at the stacked field of the Scottish Open should be read positively. Complimenting this is the 4th place earlier this year at the BMW International Open in what is always a decently strong field for the DP World Tour.

An excellent putter, Valimaki has now gained for driving accuracy in his last 4 tournaments and gained on approach in 3/4. He sists 28th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months and 7th for SG: Putting. Again, this represents great value at 200/1 and the 7:50am Thursday tee-time holds similar appeals.

Justin Walters

Finally, South African golfer Justin Walters rounds out the picks this week at a speculative play at 250/1. Walters arrived after finishing 4th for SG: Approach when finishing 8th at the Made in Himmerland. That included a week where he was even on the putting surface, typically the weakest part of his game and promising given the true bentgrass greens on course.

Again, not being renowned as a links player should add credence to that recent 8th and a 22nd the start prior. There was a gap of nearly 6 weeks between those tournaments, so the big spike in approach is enough to speculate he may have found some ground in that break.

At comp courses, Walters finished 3rd this year at the British Masters (where he also holds a 2nd) and 20th at the Irish Open when arriving off a missed cut. A prior finish of 10th around the Montgomerie Maxx Royal also holds some correlating form to this track. The 11am start Thursday means he should have 9 holes in calmer weather, followed by being in the 2nd group out on Friday morning. Coupled with improved driving accuracy in his last two appearances, there is enough to speculate that 250/1 could be overs and a realistic chance at some place money on offer.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

2022 BMW Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a start to the FedEx Cup playoffs! The FedEx St Jude Championship delivered an epic finish for golf fans alongside some massive profits for us. Having had multiple 2nd and 3rd place golfers in each of the three prior weeks, we saw one of our tips convert with a huge win with Will Zalatoris at 29/1.

We also had Collin Morikawa come home for 5th and a place money cash, who will be left ruing missing putts of 4ft and 6ft in his last 4 holes. And, perhaps ironically, our best return per $ spent came from Trey Mullinax who was tipped at a whopping 250/1 and duly finished 5th. To cap a fantastic week, we also tipped Ewen Ferguson to win on the DP World Tour and complete a rare trans-Atlantic double.

Wilmington Country Club plays host this week, in what is not only the first professional golf tournament hosted here but in fact the first PGA Tour event in the state of Delaware. Home course of President Joe Biden, the course is immaculately kept with a grand clubhouse sure to provide a picturesque backdrop to the tournament this week.

The stakes are high with the field cut to just the top 70. Not only does the Tour Championship provide lucrative pay checks to the top 30 and eventual FedEx Champion, but also entry to the Majors in 2023. Who should you bet at the BMW Championship? Here is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

Wilmington Country Club is being played as the South course, although it is in fact played as a modified order. The course is a lengthy 7,534 yards par-71. A lot of this yardage falls into the par 5s measuring 582, 634, and 649 yards. It is worth noting the 634-yard 12th also has water short and therefore will take an extremely brave player to go for the green.

Further, three par 4s play over 490 yards and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards. On a typical PGA Tour course players will hit on average four approach shots over 200 yards, where we expect 7 shots to fall into that long iron range here. Two par 4s are less than 400 yards, with the 16th likely to play with forward tees for at least two rounds and be drivable. Doglegs feature in both directions and the ability to move the ball with ease is a prerequisite here.

Fairways are relatively narrow and the rough shifts from 2.5in bermudagrass last week to 4in bluegrass here. Although rough is longer in length, bluegrass tends to be a little less penal and more predictable than bermudgrass. I suspect power will be an essential element to success this week. This will come into play not just in driving distance, but the ability to move the ball forward sometimes substantial distances if finding the rough.

Greens revert to bentgrass here and are almost comically large at 8,100 sq ft. Surpassed only by the Plantation Course as host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, those are some of the largest greens seen on tour. They will play relatively fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and display some of the signature undulating nature seen in other Robert Trent Jones designs.

Comp Courses and Key Metrics

Patrick Cantlay in his press conference stated: “This golf course is definitely just like last year, extremely distance biased. You’ve got to hit it as far as you can and hit a lot of fairways.” Best recipe according to him is topping the field for driving distance, but noted fairways a little narrower than Caves Valley, and then a hot putting week. He stated greens are very true, “all about finding the right line and if you hit a solid putt, it will go in”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H03kfzv_QEs

Alongside last year’s host Caves Valley, the course profiles very similar to Quail Hollow both visually and in terms of the setup of the course itself. Trump National Doral also holds some comparable features, alongside a similar scorecard and length.

The 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic all features courses with bluegrass rough and larger than average bentgrass greens. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational feature as comparisons with relatively lengthy setups combined with some of the larger greens on tour.

The key metrics I am looking for this week are driving distance, performance on approach over 200 yards, and approach putt performance. The latter accounts for the fact lag putting will play a factor for all players at some point of the tournaments. I suspect a winning score of -16 to -18 may do the trick on what on first appearance presents a slightly more penal test than previous iterations of this event.

Weather Forecast

With a condensed field and all players starting off the first tee, the weather plays less of a factor here than in other weeks. Decent enough rain in the lead-up will prevent the course getting too firm. I expect some light rain Wednesday evening, Friday evening, and during the morning on Saturday as well.

The winds appear calmest first thing in the morning before building throughout the day. The wind does not look significantly penal though, peaking at 8-10mph prevailing with gusts of 15-20mph in the afternoons.

https://www.windy.com/39.794/-75.597?39.313,-75.597,8,m:eLuad3b

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Headliners

– Rory McIlroy 4pt E/W $13.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Scottie Scheffler 2pt E/W $21.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Joaquin Niemann 1pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Joaquin Niemann 2pt Top 10 $4.50 (TAB)

Sleepers

– Cameron Davis 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Cameron Davis 3pt Top 10 $6.00 (TAB)

– Keith Mitchell 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Keith Mitchell 2pt Top 20 $3.88 (TAB)

– Taylor Pendrith 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Taylor Pendrith 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Trey Mullinax 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (William Hill)

– Sebastian Munoz 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Sebastian Munoz 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Player Profiles – Headliners

Rory McIlroy

I’ll start by saying it is incredibly rare for me to find value at the top end of the board. This week we do for a couple of reasons, and hence just three players make the headline picks here. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy, who provides a compelling case. I’m surprised we find Rory at 13/1 when it would be unsurprising were he priced at high single figures in a smaller 70-man field.

Alongside 4th at the similar Caves Valley course, Rory has won three times at Quail Hollow alongside a runner-up finish and 9 Top 10s there. The missed cut last week holds little concern for me. Firstly, he is perhaps the best driver in the world (alongside Rahm) and lost strokes off the tee for the first time since March 2021.

I don’t expect that happens again, especially given a course last week that was not necessarily 100% suitable. Secondly, by his own admission he did not touch his golf clubs since The Open Championship and indulged in some unhealthy eating. Shaking off that rust, he still gained on approach to the field, marking 9 tournaments in a row doing so. In the prior 8 events, he has finished no worse than 19th and finished 8th or better in all 4 Majors.

Rory has won 5 FedEx Cup playoff events, beaten only by Dustin Johnson (6) and joined by Tiger Woods (4) as the only golfers with more than 2 FedEx Cup wins. He is also a two-time FedEx Cup champion. A late charge, at a course which should suit his game perfectly, would not surprise in what has been an exceptional year.

Scottie Scheffler

It was a close-run thing for the second spot in, with Scheffler just edging Rahm for value. I have a fair price on Scheffler at 15/1 in this field, so to snatch him at 21/1 is excellent value where Rahm is substantially shorter.

Missing the cut on the number last week, most of his lost strokes came from the putter with his worst putting performance since January 2021. We know how volatile a stat putting can be and starting the tournament missing 4ft and 8ft putts led to some understandable frustration. In fact, Scheffler lost -4.65 strokes putting in that first round but gained +0.76 strokes in his 2nd round in a much-improved putting performance.

Scheffler also beats Rahm in a few key metrics for me. He is 70th on tour this season for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 71st for approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 3rd for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.

Having gained strokes OTT in all but one tournament this year, Scheffler also has gained on approach in his prior 13 tournaments (discount The Players under an extremely windy draw bias). Considering he spent much of his 2nd round chasing the cutline at a penal approach course to smaller greens, a quick rebound can be expected here. Having spent 23 weeks as the FedEx Cup leader, he will have the added motivation having lost that spot following Will Zalatoris’ victory last week.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the most impressive performances of the season came with Niemann decimating Riviera on his way to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Already regarded amongst the game’s elite, the supremely talented Chilean is still just 23 years old. A strong performance this week would be more than just reward for a great season.

Last week, Niemann lost strokes in his first round before finding some incredible form with his irons. Gaining +2.90, +2.11, and +1.38 on approach for the next three rounds saw him finish third in that metric for the week. This followed gaining on approach in 5/6 of his recent tournaments (4 of those by 4 strokes or more) and complimented by gaining OTT in all tournaments this year. Notably, he has gained on the field for accuracy in 2 of his last three suggesting his ball-striking is peaking at the perfect time.

That prodigious distance will come in handy here, with sitting 6th on tour this season for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards another pointer. 3rd, 29th, and 31st at this tournament point to a level of comfort at the end of the calendar and all came in earlier seasons whilst still developing to the player we find today.

Player Profiles – Sleepers

Cameron Davis

Cam Davis arrives here off the back of 5 finishes of 16th or better. He has gained on approach at every event since the Phoenix Open back in February 2022 and gained OTT in 9/10 most recent tournaments.

Plenty long off the tee and with his irons, Davis is also quietly a decent putter and gains on the field majority of appearances (15/19 tournaments in 2022). Bentgrass also tends to be his best putting surface. Davis sits 38th on tour for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 42nd for birdie or better percentage 200+ yards.

Davis is currently 52nd in FedEx Cup rankings and realistically needs a top 5 finish to make next week’s Tour Championship. The talented 27-year-old is certainly arriving in great form to try and mark his first appearance in the season ending tournament with a strong showing here.

Keith Mitchell

Another who is plenty long off the tee, Mitchell arrives after 4 consecutive finishes of 32nd or better and having gained on approach for 5 straight appearances. He has also gained for driving accuracy substantially in his last 2 events, again pointing to some strong fundamentals to his game of late.

Mitchell has some elite form at the comparable Quail Hollow with 3rd, 8th, and 34th (in his rookie year) for his appearances there. Mitchel is 18th on tour for par 3 scoring 200-225 yards and 41st for approach proximity and 45th birdie or better percentage at 200+ yards. Sitting 38th in the rankings, he is in a great excellent position for an inaugural appearance at the Tour Championship.

Taylor Pendrith

In an excellent rookie season, Taylor Pendrith has performed admirably well since stepping up to the PGA Tour despite a significant rib injury in March. Pendrith halted a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 13th or better last week, in a performance which reads on paper worse than it perhaps was. The majority of his strokes were lost with the putter but he was at field average for approach.

In that recent run of high-end finishes was a 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, when losing to a hot-form Tony Finau. That was an improved putting performance, gaining +4.48 strokes putting, and came on bentgrass greens as we see here this week. 26th on tour this year for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards could see a perfect fit here.

Having gained off the tee at every tournament in 2022, Pendrith is able to maintain his extremely long distance whilst remaining accurate. It is a rare combination that could be extremely valuable this week at triple figure odds on offer.

Trey Mullinax

Having delivered for us so beautifully last week, it is hard to resist returning to Mullinax. I tipped him last week at 250/1, so being cut to 125/1 is not drastic given a 5th place and the field nearly halving here.

In that performance, he gained +6.04 strokes approach to sit 7th in the field alongside 4th for SG: T2G. Losing -1.83 strokes putting in the 4th round was what put paid to his chances, with even an average day on the greens likely to have seen him go even closer to victory.

It is somewhat understandable for a player finding himself in that position for the first time at the pointy end of the season. Mullinax has gained strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments. Notably, he is 3rd on tour for approach putt performance meaning these larger bentgrass greens hold less of a concern for me here.

Another top 20 would not surprise and, sitting 41st in FedEx Cup rankings, would see him qualify for next week’s finale. It would cap a remarkable 5 weeks. Following being informed 2 months ago that his father, who was diagnosed was stage 4 cancer, was now cancer-free it would make an emotional realisation of this long hitter’s potential.

Sebastian Munoz

Finally, I will end with a somewhat speculative play on Sebastian Munoz at big odds. Munoz has a reasonably strong record in previous BMW Championships, with 29th last year complimenting an 8th place in 2020 where he made the Tour Championship in his second year on tour.

Munoz had a massive spike on approach last week, having lost on approach in his two prior tournaments to pop when gaining +5.00 strokes. This was his best approach week since the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he finished 3rd having been the first-round leader. It was accompanied by a big jump in driving accuracy, where he does usually excel but the 15% gain was substantial. A return to bentgrass greens holds appeal for a sharp return to form here.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Players Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The Florida swing continues with the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. This is a 7200 Par 72 which will test your APP more than any other metric. I’m looking for APP first and then OTT and PUTT. Tune into our PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the entire field and stay tuned for more articles and picks from the entire Win Daily team. For now, let’s get to The Players Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10900) – I really like skipping this elite range all together but I’ll have a few shares of each here and there. My favorite play is Rahm of the Big Four because his ball striking is simply great and if he can get the putter going, he could definitely win. I also like the fact that he’s likely to be less owned than both DJ and Rory so it’s a nice way to pick up a little bit of ownership leverage right off the bat.

Webb Simpson (9500) – A great course fit who played well enough, after a long break, to finish 6^th at the WGC-Workday. Last three years here he’s finished 16^th, 1^st and 16^th. A very acceptable price for a high floor/high upside golfer.

Collin Morikawa (9400) – Hasn’t played here but certainly has the skill set to take this tournament down for back to back wins. Morikawa is a star and has too much potential to ignore in this one. He finished in a tie for 7th after Round 1 of The Players last year (before it got cancelled).

Viktor Hovland (9300) – It’s possible that his unimpressive weekend will keep ownership relatively low, especially when you consider all the studs in this range. I don’t think we need to read too much into his poor Saturday and Sunday at the API. Hovland also finished in a tie for 7th after last year’s Round 1 of the Players.

Tony Finau (9100) – I tend to ignore Tony, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore the ball striking and the short game. Put simply, he rates out really well in every SG category and that makes him a great value at this price. His track record here isn’t great but he did finish 22^nd here in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (7900) – We will talk about the 8k range on the Win Daily PGA Livestream but I’m not a huge fan of it and I’m not going to force a pick there for purposes of this Initial Picks article. I do think Fleetwood could easily be priced in the low 8k range. I was impressed with what he did at API and if the irons are back to being consistent, this will be a great pick. Last two finishes here were 5^th and 7^th.

Will Zalatoris (7600) – The last couple of tournaments have appered underwhelming, but the young gun continues to play well and managed to finish 10^th at the API. More importantly, he continues to pick up strokes everywhere but with the putter. If we get the same ball striking and an average putter, WillyZ pays off his price tag easily.

Abraham Ancer (7500) – A good price for a golfer who may have recaptured some form and has proven he can hang around the top of the leaderboard on weekends. A good ball striker who finished 12^th here in 2019.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – I have to admit, this one feels a bit scary but the common trend in DFS is to underprice Palmer and I’m always looking for value. He is generally very inconsistent and his track record at The Players establishes that with rotating MCs, but I’ll take the chance here.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He wilted for most of the tournament at the API, but he’s a consistent golfer who is great on APP and that’s what you are going to need here.

Emiliano Grillo (6700) – Has made three cuts in a row here and his ball striking is typically pristine. With that said, he hadn’t been as good on APP until until the API. If the APP and OTT game are in sync this weekend then he will make the cut and score some points over the weekend.

Richy Werenski (6400) – Closed the API in impressive fashion and ended up with a 4^th place finish. He’s made 5 cuts in a row and he’s doing it with the long and short game. He has played here twice and finished 47^th and 23^rd. At this price range you’re not going to find better value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Win Daily Sports YouTube page and Apple podcasts. And make sure you check out the Bettor Golf Podcast which will drop Wednesday morning.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

We’re in the middle of the Florida swing and the PGA Tour will make its next stop in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This week a few of the big-ticket golfers are taking the week off but it’s still a talent-laden field and you’ll want to focus upon great ball strikers, particularly good APP players. We will have a ton of content coming up on our site, and of course, tonight on the Win Daily PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST (airing on our Win Daily Sports YouTube channel and @windailysports on Twitter). Now let’s get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks.

Viktor Hovland (10600) – There’s really no need for me to convince you on this one. He’s so good in the ball striking department and the short game is there. At some point he’s not going to have a great tournament and it’s up to you to decide if you’re willing to take that chance this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (10000) – I liked him last week and I like him again this week. His ball striking is elite and if it wasn’t for his ARG game last week he would have been in much better shape. Reigning champ at the API.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (9800) – There’s nothing about his game that makes him elite, but I think Fitz will do just fine in this field due to his great all around game and his ability to play in potential tough conditions. Last two finishes here he’s been 9^th and 2^nd.

Sungjae Im (9700) – Plays great in Florida as evidenced by his great track record here (back to back 3^rd place finishes). His APP numbers haven’t been elite since the start of the calendar year but I expect that to bounce back this week. He should gain in all other SG categories with ease this week.

Paul Casey (9100) – A great ball striker who also rates out well with the long irons. Has played well overseas this year and has played well on the PGA Tour thus far. Casey is never a sure thing but he’s probably a bit underpriced here.

Talor Gooch (7900) – He can be hit or miss and maybe priced a bit high but I like his comfort level here with a 13^th and 26^th the only two times he’s played here. As of late he’s picked up the iron play and recent form has also been good with the long iron play, which he’ll need here.

Charley Hoffman (7600) – I almost never write this guy up, but back in the day he was always good for some 1^st Round Leader pizza money. Earlier this year he had a troubling stretch with a couple WDs and an MC, but since that time has made two cuts in a row including a 7^th at AT&T. What really strikes me are his finishing positions at API (13^th, MC, 14^th and 2^nd over the last four years).

Emiliano Grillo (7400) – We’re looking for great ball strikers who are also good with the APP game in particular and Grillo fits the mold. His putting is a huge question mark but I’m willing to look past it for Grillo (I’ll note that I’ll likely roster some Byeong Hun An as well who is also a great ball striker with poor putting).

Henrik Norlander (7200) – Ownership should be relatively low thanks to an MC last time out and an MC the only time he played API. Norlander has flashed some upside this year and I think is undervalued by at least a few hundred DK dollars. The ball striking is typically very good and he’ll need the putter to be decent to pay off.

Luke List (7200) – Coming off an MC at Genesis, but has great course history with 10^th, 7^th and 17^th the only three times here. His ball striking this calendar year has been very good and has plenty of upside.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – An MC his only time at the API but the ball striking has been excellent and I think NeSmith is undervalued at this price.

Cameron Percy (6500) – This recent Win Daily Secret Weapon had a nice week in Puerto Rico last week and continues to strike the ball well. His metrics on APP are particularly good and I think he’s steady enough to make the cut and slowly climb the middle section of the leaderboard over the weekend.

Tom Hoge (6500) – A handful of missed cuts earlier this year had things looking bleak for Hoge, but he’s made two cuts in a row and that included a 12th at the AT&T. He’s played here twice and finished well inside the Top 30 both times. Pretty decent floor considering the price range.

Thanks for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational: Initial Picks. See you tonight on the PGA Livestream and if you’re not already signed up for one of our memberships get to windailysports.com and sign up! See you tonight and see you in Discord.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well. You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual. This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success. More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world. His ball striking and short game are excellent. His price point isn’t cost prohibitive. Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one. If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category. Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2^nd, 2^nd and 5^th over his last three tournaments). Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3^rd, 2^nd and 13^th over his last three. He has a great track record as you might expect.

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page. Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7^th place finish last week at the AT&T. Add to that a 5^th place finish last year and 37^th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee. He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut. But he finished 14^th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that. Plenty of upside at this price.

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13^th, 14^th and 28^th place finish in his last three efforts here. I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10^th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10^th place finish). With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories.

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately. He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments. Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly). KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2^nd place finish at the Waste Management. Further, he finished 13^th and 25^th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore. He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5). He also finished 7^th here in 2019.

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25. Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks. Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter. Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on. See you tonight.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach). These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s. With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play. My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with. Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex. Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn. I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced. He is also playing in his home state which should help.

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8^th at The AmEx. Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up. That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8^th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari. He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year. I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular. In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2^nd, 7^th, 6^th, 14^th and 17^th. Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer. In his last three tournaments he has finished 22^nd, 2^nd and 12^th and he’s been great OTT and on APP. The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game. He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else. Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true. Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5^th here last year. His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking. He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history. Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13^th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together. If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some.

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid. He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3^rd, 7^th and 14^th place finish.

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups. Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas. His course history includes a 10^th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that. A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week. I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night. You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

I’m very excited to arrive in Phoenix for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that we only have one course this week and we likely won’t have much by way of weather concerns. This is definitely a ball strikers course with a premium focus on SG APP. Being good OTT helps as always but this is a second shot golf course so I’ll be focusing on those metrics along with the typical focus upon recent form and course history. Join me and Michael Rasile and the King of Showdowns, Joel Schrek, at 8:00 tonight for all of our DFS plays as we do our typical deep dive. We will also be hitting you with our customary first round leader and outright bets (which I’ve hit two weeks in a row). Let’s get to the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11200) – A guy who consistently lands in the Top 10 with the upside for a takedown. Rahm rates out 4th T2G and while he picks up more strokes OTT versus APP (I’d prefer the opposite here) I think he’s in great form and he’s coming home to a course he’s probably played a ton.

Xander Schauffele (11000) – Like most DFS players, I get Xander wrong more than I get him right. With that said, I really like what I saw from Xander last week on a course he usually can’t get right. Last week he had to battle just to make the cut and then kept chipping away until falling into 2^nd place. There are guys with better course history than Xander and Rahm, but there my guys this week in the elite range.

Daniel Berger (9600) – Another guy with very good course history who is really rounding into form. Right before the break he was trending to average but since then he’s finished 10^th at Sentry and 7^th at Sony. I think his upside includes a 1^st place finish, particularly if he finds a hot putter, which he has been known to do.

Will Zalatoris (9000) – This new kid on the block appears to have all the tools to compete with the best and he showed that last week, a feat particularly impressive since he had zero course experience at Torrey Pines. Zalatoris doesn’t have a lot of PGA rounds under his belt, but the rounds he does have pop off the page particularly on APP.

Russell Henley (8200) – Last time I thought this guy was a “safe play” he missed the cut at the American Express. Henley dominates on APP, but a closer look shows that said domination occurs about half the time. His track record here is hit or miss and his recent history is hit or miss, but if he’s hitting his irons right you are getting great value at this price.

Corey Conners (7900) – Corey is definitely part of team no-putt, but his ball striking is elite relative to the others in the 7k range. He’s been a regular Top 25 finisher over the last few months, including a 10^th at the Masters and a 10^th at RSM.

Henrik Norlander (7500) – I’m always careful not to chase last week’s points and that’s certainly in play here, but the upside is too much to pass up with Norlander. He was excellent last week with a 2^nd place finish and 12^th place right before that at The American Express. The ball striking has been great and it looks like this guy has turned a corner.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – Did someone say team no-putt? Unfortunately Grillo is a captain of that squad but his ball striking is elite and I’m going to hope that he finds a warm putter (a “hot” putter is probably asking too much). His course history here is average at best, but I still see him as a great value here.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Don’t look now, but Thompson might be the most underrated golfer in this entire field. He’s got four top 25’s in the last four tournaments including a 5^th at The American Express. His ball striking has been very good lately and while he loses OTT, I expect him to pick up strokes everywhere else.

Sebastian Munoz (7100) – Once I’m down in this range I’m really looking for upside and that’s exactly what Munoz offers. He can get really hot and can carry your DFS roster for at least a few days. I’ll take some shots here.

Joel Dahmen (6800) – Joel does not have a good course history here and his recent history isn’t much better, but this is more of a hunch play as I believe in his game OTT and on APP and think he can be a big time scorer if he finds his game. I’ll warn you that I won’t have many shares of Dahmen but I do love the upside.

Davis Riley (6100) – Another new kid on the block, but this guy is even newer than Will Zalatoris. And by the way, in 2020 he absolutely crushed it on the Korn Ferry Tour with Will Zalatoris. The KFT is no joke and I think this could be a diamond in the rough, but it’s not an SE or 3max play, it’s more of an MME play.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – tune into Discord Wednesday night.

See everyone tonight on the PGA Livestream on our YouTube page or on Twitter @windailysports and be sure to check out all of the PGA content at windailysports.com and in Discord. Thanks for reading my Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.

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