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DFS Golf Ownership

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Byron Nelson

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Byron Nelson DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. This week we are at Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas. The big news is Jordan Spieth withdrew due to a left wrist injury. This leaves Scottie Scheffler as the prohibitive odds on favorite. The Byron Nelson DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are intended to give you the leverage, pivots and value plays to drive you to the top of the contests.

The Course and it’s Horses

This course is your typical TPC layout with very large fairways, not so penal rough and generous greens. This is a putting contest, expect the winning score to be in the mid twenties under par (weather permitting). The course horse is “TPC Lee” He has won twice here in as many outings, you can’t beat that. He will be popular. Other notables who have done well here include Hideki, Schauffele, JT, Kuchar, Scheffler, Riley, Palmer, Merritt and Power.

Recent Results

Last week our frisky biscuit turned out to be soggy dough. All our selections below made the cut. This event is a “practice round” for some before next weeks major, with an emphasis on putting we can expect there to be a few outliers. This brings our overall record to 42-11. Our record since the Sentry in January is 22-5.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a FREE test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s only 5.99 a week. If you’re tired of losing money, just breaking even or not making enough in DFS, gives us a try. You won’t regret it.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for rain, rain and more rain. It looks like Saturday may be a washout if predictions hold. Winds will depend on oncoming thunderstorms if and when they arrive. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Byron Nelson DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION	OWN %	SALARY
Day, Jason	34.8	9400
Scheffler, Scottie	33.9	11900
Kim, Tom (Joohyung)	25.2	9600
Hatton, Tyrrell	24.9	10100
Lee, KH	19.4	9300
Kucher, Matt	19.3	9000
Matsuyama, Hideki	18.7	9800
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan	18.3	8000
Hoge, Tom	18.2	8500
Scott,Adam	15.8	9200
Jaeger, Stephan	15.7	8200
Stevens, Sam	15.6	7600
Power, Seamus	15.1	8900
Cole, Eric	14.9	7400
Kim, Michael	14.8	7500
Griffin, Ben	14.4	7400
Wu, Brandon	12.7	7800
Bramlett, Joseph	12.6	7900
Lashley, Nate	12.3	7200
Riley, Davis	12.2	7900
Stallings, Scott	12.1	7700
Montgomery, Taylor	11.9	8700
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	11.4	7600
Schenk, Adam	11.4	7300
Walker, Jimmy	11.1	7100
Kim, Si Woo	10.4	9100
An, Byeong	9.8	8600
Lee, Min Woo	9.8	8400
Palmer, Ryan	9.8	7100
Hadwin, Adam	9.7	8100
Rai, Aaron	9.2	7500
Wu, Dylan	8.9	7400
Suh, Justin	7.7	7600
Gordon, Will	6.1	7800
Wise, Aaron	5.9	8300
McNealy, Maverick	5.8	8800
Norrman, Vincent	5.8	7200
Young, Carson	5.7	6700
Mullinax, Trey	5.2	7000
Chappell, Kevin	4.8	6600
Roy, Kevin	4.8	6500
Duncan, Tyler	4.6	7100
Hall, Harry	4.5	7200
Van Rooyen, Erik	4.5	7100
Smotherman, Austin	4.3	7100
NeSmith, Matthew	3.9	7400
Micheluzzi. David	3.9	6600
Champ, Cameron	3.8	7300
Hoffman, Charley	3.7	7100
Shelton, Robby	3.6	7200
Novak, Andrew	3.6	7000
Hughes, Mackenzie	3.2	7400
Thompson, Davis	3.1	7200
Garnett, Brice	3.1	6900
Daffue, MJ	3.0	7200
Ramey, Chad	2.9	6800
Kodaira, Satoshi	2.9	6400
Whaley, Vincent	2.8	6500
Higgo, Garrick	2.6	7300
Kizzire, Patton	2.4	7300
Lipsky, David	2.4	7100
Merritt, Troy	2.3	6900
Coody, Pierceson	2.2	6900
Piercy, Scott	2.1	6900
Hahn, James	1.9	6900
Eckroat, Austin	1.8	7000
Baddeley, Aaron	1.8	6800
Hickok, Kramer	1.7	6900
Gerard, Ryan	1.7	6900
Sigg, Greyson	1.4	7000
Redman, Doc	1.4	6700
Nunez, Augusto	1.4	6700
Pan, CT	1.3	6600
Gribble, Cody	1.3	6500
Noh, Seung-Yul	1.3	6800
Werbylo, Trevor	1.2	6300
List, Luke	1.1	7500
Ghim, Doug	1.1	7000
Glover, Lucas	1.0	6800
Goya, Tano	1.0	6600
Blair, Zac	0.9	6500
Long, Adam	0.7	7000
Norlander, Henrik	0.6	6900
Yuan, Carl	0.6	6800
Werenski, Richy	0.6	6300
Cink, Stewart	0.5	6800
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)	0.5	6800
Tway, Kevin	0.5	6500
Gligic, Michael	0.5	6300
Matthews, Brandon	0.4	6600
Grant, Brent	0.4	6500
Moore, Ryan	0.4	6400
Armour, Ryan	0.4	6400
Westmoreland, Kyle	0.4	6300
Sloan, Roger	0.4	6200
Lamely, Derek	0.4	6100
Kang, Sung	0.4	6000
Cook, Austin	0.3	6600
Frittelli, Dylan	0.3	6600
Laird, Martin	0.3	6400
Knox, Russell	0.3	6400
Dufner, Jason	0.3	6300
Streb, Robert	0.2	6500
Trainer, Martin	0.2	6500
Duo, Zecheng	0.2	6500
Endycott, Harrison	0.2	6400
Stanley, Kyle	0.2	6200
Bae, Sangmoon	0.2	6200
Haley II, Paul	0.2	6100
Bryan, Wesley	0.2	6100
Kang, Jeffrey	0.2	6000
Gomez, Fabian	0.2	6000
Ernst, Derek	0.2	6000
Stroud, Chris	0.1	6400
Brown, Scott	0.1	6400
Alexander, Tyson	0.1	6400
Haas, Bill	0.1	6300
Byrd, Jonathan	0.1	6300
Harrington, Scott	0.1	6200
Cone, Trevor	0.1	6200
Ogilvy, Geoff	0.1	6100
Blixt, Jonas	0.1	6100
Stuard, Brian	0.1	6100
Trahan, DJ	0.1	6100
Chalmers, Greg	0.1	6000
Killeen, JJ	0.1	6000
Kuest, Peter	0.1	6000
Coody, Parker	0.1	6000
Herman, Jim	0.0	6300
Landry, Andrew	0.0	6300
Watney, Nick	0.0	6200
McGirt, William	0.0	6200
Kraft, Kelly	0.0	6200
Murray, Grayson	0.0	6200
Brehm, Ryan	0.0	6200
McNeill, George	0.0	6100
Crane, Ben	0.0	6100
Barnes, Ricky	0.0	6100
McGreevy, Max	0.0	6100
Points, D.A.	0.0	6000
Van Pelt, Bo	0.0	6000
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000
Johnson, Richard	0.0	6000
Massa, Bobby	0.0	6000
Potter Jr., Ted	0.0	6000
McCraken, Logan	0.0	6000
Bibbs, Taylor (a)	0.0	6000
Knauth, William (a)	0.0	6000
ALL OTHERS	0.0

These figures for The Byron Nelson DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My Byron Nelson Top Plays

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: CBEZ

Low Tier: Stallings

Out in Left Play: Norman

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Taylor Montgomery

FR Leader: Adam Hadwin (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, try The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you information you can trust every week.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who had Wyndham Clark, the winner, at 75-1, a longshot he predicted would win. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

With the snake draft format it shows how the elite Win Daily Sports golf staff can stay within the salary guidelines and it brings you leverage plays and value gems. Many Win Daily Sports players do well just by picking players of the teams that are picked. This weeks teams are powerful on paper!

Speaking of power, the audience team is tearing it up! They won last week and have finished 1st or 2nd for over a month. They currently lead the year to date contest and are hungry for more. It’s time for total domination!

Parting Shot

“You don’t know what pressure is until you are playing golf for 5 bucks with only 2 bucks in your pocket.”

Lee Trevino.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

Wells Fargo Championship Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Wells Fargo Championship Picks in a return to Quail Hollow Golf Coure

The Mexico Open shaped up as good as could be hoped for the PGA Tour, with two leading lights of Tony Finau and Jon Rahm duking it out for the title. However, it was very hard to argue there was any significant value to be found in those selections priced at just +375 and +700 pre-tournament. Unfortunately, it was therefore also a tricky week for our picks as a result. Wyndham Clark recovered nicely from a very poor opening round to move up the leaderboard significantly. Patrick Rodgers and Joseph Bramlett joined him in that upward trajectory. However, both finished in 10th and just one shot outside place money for us. There will be more on Rodgers and Clark in our Wells Fargo Championship Picks this week.

Course Analysis for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Certainly, the first thing to note for your Wells Fargo Championship Picks is the return to Quail Hollow Golf Course. The tournament shifted to TPC Potomac for last year’s edition, due to a clash in preparation for hosting the President’s Cup. Despite being quite a different golf course, Max Homa was successful in securing his 2nd Wells Fargo Championship. However, last year’s event can be ignored in your analysis as it shares little with Quail Hollow.

Most notably, the course is a tricky par 71 at 7,538 yards. That already tells us a lot that we need to know about the track. The penalty for finding the rough is not too significant. However, the ideal combination of driving distance and accuracy is a desirable asset to have. 75% of approach shots will be from over 150 yards. Additionally, approach shots from 200+ are once again severely disproportionate to the PGA Tour average.

Around the green is easier than PGA Tour average. However, SG: Putting receives a small boost. Putting from 5 to 15 feet has ranked 15th most difficult here, with over 15 feet ranking 7th on tour.

Therefore, key for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks are driving distance, long iron approach play, and an uptick in putting.

Course Comps for our Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Course form is relatively sticky at Quail Hollow and should influence your Wells Fargo Championship Picks respectively. Certainly, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook and host of the Valspar Championship, profiles well as a course that requires a similar profile for approach shots. It also features the same Bermuda overseeded with Poa greens as seen at the Valspar Championship. Additionally, Bay Hill requires long, straight driving alongside an uptick in long iron approach.

Certainly Caves Valley, host of the 2021 BMW Championship, is one of the most correlated courses to Quail Hollow. Form, however, can be more difficult find due to the reduced field and having only hosted the single event. Finally, last year’s PGA Championship hosted at Southern Hills Country Club should be a good guide of who to expect in contention for our Wells Fargo Championship picks this week.

Weather

Obviously, it is a difficult week to predict if there will be a weather edge for our Wells Fargo Championship picks. Thursday AM will see some increased winds which are forecast to reduce throughout the day. However, this is offset slightly by the fact some rain has been received on the course Wednesday and predicted overnight on Thursday. This should see the course play softer and, therefore, more receptive. However, it does also become imperative to have a modicum of distance off the tee with rollout expected to reduce from drives.

Friday AM should be the calmer winds of the 2nd round, before steadily increasing as the day unfolds. Particularly, this is likely to result in a slight edge to those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM for the first two rounds. However, the mitigation of rain for those earliest Thursday will reduce the advantage to a predicted less than 0.5 strokes.

Latest weather forecasting can be found here.

Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young
2.5pts WIN +2200 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +240 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sam Burns – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3300 MGM
2pts Top 10 +320 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +3300 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +7500 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +550 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +240 Draftkings or +300 Bet365

Taylor Moore – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8500 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365

Gary Woodland
1pt WIN +9000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings or +320 Bet365

Patrick Rodgers
1pt WIN +12000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Draftkings/Bet365

Cameron Champ – Your Wells Fargo Championship Picks Long-Shot
0.5pts WIN +25000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1800 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +800 Draftkings/Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +210 Draftkings or +275 Bet365

Wells Fargo Championship Picks DFS Core: Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Taylor Moore

Thank you reading our 2023 Wells Fargo Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Italian Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Wells Fargo Championship

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Wells Fargo DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. This week we are at Quail Hollow in North Carolina. This course has been used 4 times for this tourney since 2016 with the PGA Championship and President’s Cup in between. This is a championship course and plays like it, as well as being an elevated event. The Wells Fargo DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are intended to give you the metrics and numbers you need for leverage, pivots off high chalk, and value golfers to propel you to the top of the contests.

The Course and it’s Horses

This course will have slightly more room on the fairways than a major. You will still need accuracy with long approach shots, above average scrambling, and still face lightning fast greens. The Par 4s are the key to doing well here. The median score here is par and has averaged that for the last 10 years. Rory is the course history king by a longshot. He has won here three times and finished in the top 10 the last eight years. The only exception was a T16 in 2018. With Rahm and Scheffler resting due to “workload management”, Rory is the prohibitive favorite. Other notables include Morikawa, Spieth, Cam Young, Xander, Fowler, Day, and JT.

Recent Results

Last week we offered two Frisky Biscuit golfers, Grant missed the cut and Tosti, at 6500 salary, finished T10 at 13 under and brought great value. All my plays (listed below the ownership) made the cut last week. This brings our overall record to 42-10. Our record since the Sentry in January is 22-4.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for low temps early Thursday and Friday in the high forties before warming to the seventies in the afternoon. Rain is forecast for Saturday. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Wells Fargo DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION	OWN %	SALARY
Young, Cameron	32.4	8700
Hovland, Viktor	24.9	9200
McIlroy, Rory	23.8	11100
Cantlay, Patrick	22.3	10500
Thomas, Justin	20.6	8900
Day, Jason	17.9	9000
Schauffele, Xander	17.3	10700
Spieth, Jordan	17.2	9600
Finau, Tony	16.8	10200
Morikawa, Collin	15.9	9800
Burns, Sam	15.6	8600
Homa, Max	14.8	9400
Im, Sungjae	14.7	9100
Woodland, Gary	14.0	7600
Fowler, Rickie	13.7	8800
Mitchell, Keith	13.4	7800
Fleetwood, Tommy	13.3	8000
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	12.7	9300
Clark, Wyndham	12.5	7800
Theegala, Sahith	12.4	8200
Moore, Taylor	11.3	7600
Hatton, Tyrrell	11.2	8500
Grillo, Emiliano	11.2	7400
Bradley, Keegan	10.6	7700
Kim, Tom (Joohyung)	9.4	8400
Rodgers, Patrick	8.6	7500
Conners, Corey	8.5	7900
Kitayama, Kurt	7.9	7200
Davis, Cameron	7.8	7500
Bramlett, Joseph	7.3	6900
Gordon, Will	7.2	6900
Buckley, Hayden	6.9	7400
List, Luke	6.7	6900
Kirk, Chris	6.4	7500
Tosti, Alejandro	6.4	6500
Lowry, Shane	6.3	8100
An, Byeong	6.1	7100
Martin, Ben	5.9	7100
Dahmen, Joel	5.5	7300
Jaeger, Stephan	5.4	7300
Bhatia, Akshay	5.4	7000
Montgomery, Taylor	5.2	7600
Scott,Adam	5.2	7300
Harman, Brian	4.9	8000
Stevens, Sam	4.8	7000
Griffin, Ben	4.7	7000
Kim, Si Woo	4.3	7700
Cole, Eric	4.1	6800
Champ, Cameron	4.1	6600
Riley, Davis	3.9	7500
Svensson, Adam	3.8	6900
Kucher, Matt	3.7	7900
Schenk, Adam	3.7	7000
Hossler, Beau	3.6	7200
Lee, KH	3.4	7200
Wu, Dylan	3.4	6700
Wallace, Matt	3.2	7000
Young, Carson	3.2	6100
McCarthy, Denny	2.9	7400
Pendrith, Taylor	2.9	7000
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	2.8	7000
Power, Seamus	2.7	7100
Spaun, JJ	2.6	7300
Rai, Aaron	2.6	6900
Suh, Justin	2.4	7100
Poston, JT	2.3	7100
Hardy, Nick	2.2	7100
Mullinax, Trey	2.2	6400
Reavie, Chez	2.1	6500
Simpson, Webb	1.9	7200
Coody, Pierceson	1.9	6500
Smotherman, Austin	1.8	6600
Ryder, Sam	1.7	7200
Hall, Harry	1.7	6700
Thompson, Davis	1.7	6600
Hadwin, Adam	1.6	7400
Walker, Jimmy	1.5	6500
English, Harris	1.4	7100
Daffue, MJ	1.4	6700
Griffin, Lanto	1.3	6700
Kim, Michael	1.3	6600
Putnam, Andrew	1.2	7000
Hubbard, Mark	1.2	6900
Smalley, Alex	1.2	6800
Gerard, Ryan	1.2	6400
Taylor, Ben	1.1	6600
Hughes, Mackenzie	1.0	6800
Shelton, Robby	1.0	6800
Molinari, Francesco	0.9	6800
Hodges, Lee	0.9	6800
Van Rooyen, Erik	0.9	6700
Duncan, Tyler	0.9	6500
Grant, Brent	0.9	6300
Todd, Brendon	0.8	7200
Thompson, Michael	0.8	6500
Piercy, Scott	0.8	6400
Higgo, Garrick	0.7	6800
Cink, Stewart	0.7	6400
Willett, Danny	0.6	6900
Straka, Sepp	0.6	6900
Lashley, Nate	0.6	6700
Sigg, Greyson	0.6	6400
Noren, Alexander	0.5	7300
Glover, Lucas	0.5	6700
NeSmith, Matthew	0.5	6600
Pan, CT	0.5	6200
Cone, Trevor	0.5	6000
Streelman, Kevin	0.4	6600
Palmer, Ryan	0.4	6300
Ramey, Chad	0.4	6300
Moore, Ryan	0.4	6200
Tarren, Callum	0.4	6100
Kizzire, Patton	0.3	6800
Hahn, James	0.3	6600
Eckroat, Austin	0.3	6500
Johnson, Zack	0.3	6400
Hadley, Chesson	0.3	6300
Lower, Justin	0.3	6300
Knox, Russell	0.3	6200
Watney, Nick	0.3	6100
Lipsky, David	0.2	6700
Long, Adam	0.2	6500
Ghim, Doug	0.2	6500
Lingmerth, David	0.2	6400
Malnati, Peter	0.2	6400
Hickok, Kramer	0.2	6400
Norlander, Henrik	0.2	6300
Sabbatini, Rory	0.2	6200
Dufner, Jason	0.2	6100
Werenski, Richy	0.2	6100
Merritt, Troy	0.1	6300
Laird, Martin	0.1	6300
Schwab, Matthias	0.1	6300
Holmes, JB	0.1	6200
Armour, Ryan	0.1	6200
Frittelli, Dylan	0.1	6200
Redman, Doc	0.1	6100
Echavarria, Nico	0.1	6100
Tway, Kevin	0.1	6000
Herman, Jim	0.0	6200
Crowe, Trace	0.0	6200
Greaser, Austin (a)	0.0	6200
Blair, Zac	0.0	6100
Alexander, Tyson	0.0	6100
Endycott, Harrison	0.0	6100
Mack III, Willie	0.0	6100
Streb, Robert	0.0	6000
Landry, Andrew	0.0	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.0	6000
McGreevy, Max	0.0	6000
DeNeen, Morgan	0.0	6000
Guise, Danny	0.0	6000
Byrd, Marcus	0.0	6000
Riley, Quinn	0.0	6000
Cole, Ryan	0.0	6000
Haley II, Paul	0.0	6000

These figures for The Wells Fargo DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

*** Paul Haley ll has a 12:16 tee time tomorrow. He’s not listed on DK or in any ownership metrics**

My Wells Fargo Top Plays

Top Tier: McIlroy

Mid Tier: Cam Young

Low Tier: Stevens

Out in Left Play: Tosti

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Max Homa

FR Leader: Taylor Moore (Contrarian)

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who has picked multiple winners almost every week. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

Parting Shot

” I was out playing golf this week and I actually hit two good balls.” I stepped on a greenskeeper’s rake.”

Henny Youngman

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Mexico Open Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Vidanta Vallarta golf course analysis plays part again for our Mexico Open Picks

It was yet another winner for DeepDiveGolf and WinDaily at the Zurich Classic. Nick Hardy and Davis Riley scored their debut victory and got the win done for us at 45/1. It was nearly another Trans-Atlantic double, with Calum Hill (90/1) finishing just one shot outside the playoff in Japan on the DP World Tour. We secured a full place payout from him as well as Top 20 place money. We also had Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler in our selections, who lead after each of the first three rounds. Ultimately, they finished up in 3rd fading slightly in the final round. Again, it was another full place payout. What a great way to enter what feels a fantastic opportunity to target with our Mexico Open Picks!

The Jon Rahm Conversation

It seems apropos to begin this week with a paragraph on what to do about Jon Rahm. The defending champion here arrives in even better form than he did last year. He has won an astonishing 43% of his starts since October 2022. And, you can argue that this week is an even weaker field.

On the flip side, I think it is difficult to argue there is value in the +270 currently on offer. Inevitably, it becomes a conversation of Rahm vs the field. If anything, he is priced fairly in the market at best. The end of the day, this is still a PGA Tour event with a number of challengers capable of winning an event like this on their day. There are 143 other golfers playing this week. Rebounding for another victory after winning a major is not the easiest feat. In that, I prefer the field for our Mexico Open picks from a betting standpoint. If Rahm wins at extremely short odds, then c’est la vie.

For DFS purposes, I will be at field average with 40% of my lineups built with Rahm. Again, at his DFS price he needs to realistically needs to finish Top 3 to justify the value. Yes, he is miles ahead of the rest of the field and has one of the highest floors. Anything less than a Top 10 would be a shock. Hence, he requires inclusion in some capacity. I just will not be overweight on him and will hope that one of our other charges can take the title.

Course Analysis for our Mexico Open Picks

Vidanta Vallarta golf course once again plays host this week. With the inaugural event last year, much has been made that there is a lack of data entering the week. I more come at this from a perspective that we really know everything we need to about this track.

The resort style course plays as a long par 71 at 7,456 yards. Several holes had distance added in the sole defense to PGA Tour players. Consequently, the Par 4 and Par 5s average length ranked as the longest on the PGA Tour in 2022 at 496 yards. However, the greens ranked as some of the easiest around the green. It is Paspalum grass tee to green. Generally, this sturdy grass is often in seaside locations and is resistant to salt air. As such, it tends to play slower. This will prevent rollout on drives and on the greens particularly.

The simple answer for our Mexico Open picks is Driving Distance and Approach 200+ yards (with a further weighting added for Approach 175-200).

In last year’s rendition, of the top 14 players on the leaderboard, 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance for the week. Further, 9 of the top 14 players finished in the top 20 for driving distance and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. We also find a resulting increase in long approach proximity. 35% of shots will occur from 200+ yards, with another big increase for 175-200 yards. This is hugely disproportionate to PGA Tour averages. It should be factored in accordingly.

Course Comps for our Mexico Open Picks

With paspalum grass a rather unique feature of this track, we want to look to other long courses using this grass type. This invariably ties into other coastal and tropical tournaments. This is additionally beneficial, as the strength of field (or lack thereof) tends to mirror that found this week.

The leading course of those is the Corales Golf Club, host of the Corales Puntacana Championship. This course should feature heavily in your Mexico Open Picks. Other correlated form can be found at the Grand Reserve Golf Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open. Finally, the Bermuda Championship host of Port Royal Golf Course should be considered.

I’d also suggest, given the strength of field, to consider a few of the Korn Ferry Tour events. The Bahamas tournaments (Great Abaco Classic and Great Exuma Classic), Astara Golf Championship, and LECOM Suncoast Classic should all be considred.

Weather

A very brief weather report this week. There is little to no wind forecast all week. Mornings will tend to play a little easier, with winds increasing mildly in the afternoon and greens also firming as the day goes on. However, winds will be in single digits all week and scoring will be lower than in 2022.

Current forecast is here: https://www.windy.com/20.682/-105.285?gfs,20.095,-105.285,8

Mexico Open Picks – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts WIN +2000 MGM
2.5pts Top 10 +190 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard – Your Mexico Open Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Patrick Rodgers
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts WIN +6500 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +470 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Will Gordon
2pts WIN +7000 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +490 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Joseph Bramlett
2pts WIN +6600 MGM
2pts Top 10 +500 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Martin Trainer – Your Mexico Open Picks Best Longshot
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel/MGM or +800 Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +260 Fanduel

DFS Core: Wyndham Clark, Nicolai Hojgaard, Martin Trainer

Thank you reading our 2023 Mexico Open picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Mexico Open

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Mexico Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. This week we are at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta Mexico. This course favors bombers, 7500 yards with generous fairways and medium rough. John Rahm has two competitors in the OWGR top fifty and that’s Tony Finau and Alex Noren who squeaked in at 49th. Rahm won by only 1 stroke over Finau, Wu and Kitayama in 2022. The Mexico Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, value plays and low owned players to move to the top of the leaderboards.

The Course and it’s Horses

Last year Rahm, Finau, Kitayama and Champ all competed for the top slots. Clark and Woodland follow as favorites. Riley and Hardy have withdrawn after winning the Zurich last week, leaving Noren, Rodgers and McNealy as the next set of favored golfers. The winds off the Pacific Ocean will play a part in who holds up the trophy on Sunday.

Recent Results

Last week there were no Frisky Biscuits due to the partners format and the scoring involved. Currently our overall record is 41-9. Our record since the Sentry in January is 21-3.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for sunny skies, no precipitation and winds at 12 MPH throughout the tourney. The Pacific coast can change those wind speeds at a moments notice but it does look like decent weather. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Mexico Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION	OWN %	SALARY
Rahm, John	49.8	12000
Finau, Tony	27.3	10700
Clark, Wyndham	21.6	9700
Hojgaard, Nicolai	18.4	9500
Woodland, Gary	18.1	9600
Rodgers, Patrick	17.9	9300
An, Byeong	16.6	9100
Jaeger, Stephan	14.9	8200
Bramlett, Joseph	14.1	7800
Gordon, Will	13.5	7900
Wu, Brandon	13.3	8300
List, Luke	12.4	7800
Norrman, Vincent	12.3	7200
Rai, Aaron	12.2	8900
Bhatia, Akshay	11.5	7400
Hossler, Beau	11.4	8800
Smalley, Alex	10.8	8400
Grillo, Emiliano	10.7	8500
McNealy, Maverick	9.5	9400
Tosti, Alejandro	9.4	6500
Daffue, MJ	9.3	8000
Martin, Ben	8.9	8600
Griffin, Lanto	8.8	7500
Higgo, Garrick	8.5	8300
Pendrith, Taylor	8.4	9200
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)	8.4	8200
Hodges, Lee	8.3	7900
Matthews, Brandon	7.9	6600
Champ, Cameron	7.3	7100
Lashley, Nate	6.9	7700
Reavie, Chez	6.9	7700
Noren, Alexander	6.8	9000
Cole, Eric	6.8	7500
Kim, Michael	6.8	7300
Nunez, Augusto	6.3	7000
Lipsky, David	6.1	7600
Wallace, Matt	5.9	8100
Novak, Andrew	5.9	7300
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)	5.9	7000
Shelton, Robby	5.7	8000
Hall, Harry	5.7	7400
Wu, Dylan	5.5	7500
Trainer, Martin	5.2	6800
Van Rooyen, Erik	4.8	7200
Grant, Brent	4.8	6800
Hoffman, Charley	4.7	7200
Tarren, Callum	4.6	6800
Putnam, Andrew	4.3	8700
Kizzire, Patton	3.9	7600
Goya, Tano	3.9	6700
Young, Carson	3.8	6600
Westmoreland, Kyle	3.8	6300
Hubbard, Mark	3.7	8100
Gerard, Ryan	3.4	6900
Taylor, Ben	3.4	6800
Tway, Kevin	3.3	6800
Yuan, Carl	2.9	7000
Chappell, Kevin	2.8	7100
Piercy, Scott	2.7	7100
Eckroat, Austin	2.6	7000
Smotherman, Austin	2.5	6900
Kodaira, Satoshi	2.5	6700
Ghim, Doug	2.4	7300
Sigg, Greyson	2.4	7000
Malnati, Peter	2.3	7100
Walker, Jimmy	2.3	7100
Gribble, Cody	2.2	6700
Roy, Kevin	2.2	6500
Percy, Cameron	2.1	6900
Stroud, Chris	2.1	6700
Garnett, Brice	2.1	6700
Echavarria, Nico	2.0	6700
Higgs, Harry	1.9	7200
Norlander, Henrik	1.9	7200
Murray, Grayson	1.8	6500
Schwab, Matthias	1.7	6900
Glover, Lucas	1.7	6900
Redman, Doc	1.6	6700
Long, Adam	1.6	7100
Lebioda, Hank	1.5	6900
Noh, Seung-Yul	1.5	6800
Streelman, Kevin	1.4	7300
O’Hair, Sean	1.4	7000
Frittelli, Dylan	1.4	6800
Gligic, Michael	1.4	6400
Baddeley, Aaron	1.3	6900
Byrd, Jonathan	1.3	6600
Alexander, Tyson	1.1	6500
Cone, Trevor	1.0	6400
Molinari, Francesco	0.9	7400
Hahn, James	0.9	6600
Werbylo, Trevor	0.9	6600
Bryan, Wesley	0.9	6200
Haas, Bill	0.8	6500
Kraft, Kelly	0.7	6400
Endycott, Harrison	0.6	6400
Ortiz, Alvaro	0.6	6200
Duo, Zecheng	0.5	6600
Harrington, Scott	0.5	6300
Werenski, Richy	0.5	6200
Ernst, Derek	0.5	6100
Moore, Ryan	0.4	6500
Brown, Scott	0.4	6400
Laird, Martin	0.3	6600
Armour, Ryan	0.3	6600
Barnes, Ricky	0.3	6400
Villegas, Camilo	0.3	6200
Stanley, Kyle	0.3	6200
Reifers, Kyle	0.3	6100
Weekley, Boo	0.3	6000
Haley II, Paul	0.2	6400
Kang, Sung	0.2	6400
McGirt, William	0.2	6300
Fernandez de Oliveira, Mateo (a)	0.2	6300
Watney, Nick	0.2	6300
Pereda, Raul	0.2	6200
Holmes, JB	0.2	6100
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6100
Christobal Islas, Jose	0.2	6000
Cook, Austin	0.1	6500
Del Solar, Christobal	0.1	6500
Rodriguez, Jose de Jesus	0.1	6400
Gomez, Fabian	0.1	6300
Toledo, Jose	0.1	6300
Ogilvy, Geoff	0.1	6200
Crane, Ben	0.1	6200
Lamely, Derek	0.1	6100
Gainey, Tommy	0.1	6100
McNeill, George	0.1	6000
Chalmers, Greg	0.0	6300
Stuard, Brian	0.0	6200
McGreevy, Max	0.0	6100
Trahan, DJ	0.0	6100
Vazques, Sebastian	0.0	6100
Points, D.A.	0.0	6100
Lebrija, Roberto	0.0	6100
Atwal, Arjun	0.0	6000
Morales, Omar (a)	0.0	6000
Potter Jr., Ted	0.0	6000
Bauchou, Zach	0.0	6000
Johnson, Richard	0.0	6000
Davis, Brian	0.0	6000
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000
Jurgensen, Steve	0.0	6000

These figures for The Mexico Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:34 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My Mexico Open Top Plays

Top Tier: John Rahm

Mid Tier: Jaeger

Low Tier: Bramlett

Out in Left Play: Tosti

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Rahm

FR Leader: Rodgers (contrarian)

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who picked the winner of the Zurich. Also look for the surprise guest, (who this week was the PGA’s own Rob Bolton) who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

Parting Shot

Lee Trevino “I always mow my own lawn.”

This is a true story. In 1965 Lee was an up and coming, very popular PGA player. He and his wife had bought a new home in a pricey subdivision in Dallas. One day he was out mowing his front lawn. An older lady in a shiny new Cadillac pulled up, rolled the window down and asked, “excuse me, do you speak English?” Lee replied, “Yes mam, I sure do.” She asked, “How much do you charge to do yardwork?” Lee smiled and said, “Well, mam, the lady who lives here let’s me sleep with her!” The old lady rolled up her window quickly and sped away. Well Done Lee Trevino!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

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RBC Heritage Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a Masters tournament we experienced! Certainly Jon Rahm fulfilled his potential in spades, coming through to dominate a resurgent Brooks Koepka in the final round. With multiple delays and extreme weather, it was an intriguing tournament. Naturally, a bit of lethargy and post-Major hangover is to be expected. You can only imagine how the players feel having been at Augusta National from dawn to dusk. However, another designated event with a huge purse awaits for our 2023 RBC Heritage picks!

In hindsight, Jon Rahm may have seen an obvious winner at The Masters. Our two courses that provided key indicators were the Plantation and Riviera. Obviously, Jon Rahm won both of those tournaments this year. However, he also managed to overcome a huge weather disadvantage. The wave Jon Rahm emerged from played +2.79 strokes harder for the first two rounds. Certainly, that is likely to be the biggest weather edge we see all year. It goes a long way to indicate just how far ahead of the field Rahm was, winning by 4 strokes but playing in a weather wave that on paper was another 3 strokes more difficult than what Koepka played in. Patrick Reed and Russell Henley were the two closest to Rahm from that wave, 5 shots back at -7. It was dominant, impressive, and a well deserved victory.

Course Analysis for our RBC Heritage Picks

Obviously, there is a much stronger field as a result of the elevated status of this event in 2023. The unique and particular Harbour Town Golf Links plays host this week. However, don’t let the name deceive you; the course itself is, for the most part, more like a parkland course than a links.

Only two holes are by the ocean (although water features on all 18 holes) and the course features tree-lined fairways. In some cases, this results in a real sense of claustrophobia off the tee. Not only are the penalties for straying off the tee severe, even finding the fairway may not be enough if you end up on the wrong side due to overhanging trees blocking the path to the hole.

The greens are some of the smallest on the entire PGA Tour and accurate approach play is imperative for your RBC Heritage Picks. Also, a strong scrambling performance will play a factor with the invariable greens missed. Putting is minimized somewhat due to the miniscule nature of the green complexes. However, note that putting from 5ft-15ft does receive a small boost due to that missed GIR potential.

Due to this distinctive style, despite only being a 7,121 yard par-71 the course demands restraint off the tee and has one of the lowest average driving distance on tour. Certainly, players do club down to ensure they position their shot where they need. This also has additional effect of seeing more than double the tour average for number of shots between 175-200 yards as players all end up playing a similar length. Driver length becomes mostly irrelevant.

Course Comps for our 2023 RBC Heritage Picks

Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature readily on the tour. But, of those, TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling come to the fore.

The Sea Island Plantation Course (RSM Classic) has strong form links here, again being coastal with winds in play but plentiful trees and bunkering meaning driving accuracy and approach are vital.

Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, adding to those ties for your RBC Heritage picks.

Weather

Unfortunately, another volatile week looks to be on the cards for our RBC Heritage Picks.

Certainly, on paper Thursday AM looks to be the kindest winds of the day. Concurrently, Thursday PM should see heavy gusts and rain entering the area. However, tempering this is the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon, which threaten to flip this edge on it’s head. Knowing how severe and when these thunderstorms may hit is an exercise fraught with risk and uncertainty.

Additionally, Friday weather should be calm all day with a small possibility of showers. Therefore, with the thunderstorms, there remains a real possibility that Thursday PM tee times may end up playing majority of their two rounds in the very best of conditions Friday.

Certainly, from a DFS standpoint, I recommend building stacks in both directions. I will have a slight lean on the Thursday PM and Friday AM tee times due to the threat of lightning delaying play. Therefore, my DFS construction will be 40% PM/AM, 30% AM/PM, and 30% mixed.

You can find latest weather reports here.

RBC Heritage Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Matt Kuchar
2.5pts WIN +5000 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Russell Henley – Your RBC Heritage Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +7500 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings/MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Si Woo Kim
2pts WIN +7500 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk – Your RBC Heritage Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +275 Draftkings

Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +10000 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +360 Draftkings

J.J. Spaun
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +800 Fanduel/Draftkings/MGM (+1000 Bet365)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 MGM

Stephan Jaeger – Your RBC Heritage Picks Longshot
0.5pts WIN +19000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings (+1400 Bet365)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +175 Fanduel/MGM

Andrew Putnam
0.5pts WIN +21000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings/Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +190 Draftkings/Fanduel

Your RBC Heritage Picks DFS Core: Kuchar, Henley, Kirk

Thank you reading our 2023 RBC Heritage picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The RBC Heritage

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The RBC DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. This week we are at Hilton Head in South Carolina at Harbour Town golf links. This is the tourney with the scotch tape jackets and the iconic peppermint painted lighthouse. I couldn’t find any odds on whether the lighthouse would come crashing down in high winds. This elevated field is absolutely loaded. Who knew plaid jackets were back in style? Our RBC DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections have one purpose, to help the Win Daily Sports family get the points needed to make some serious cash, week after week.

The Course and it’s Horses

This course is about fairway position and target golf. The accuracy needs to be there on approach from 125 to 200 yards. The short course requires precision and some of the old timers have fared well. Matt Kucher and Webb Simpson have done well here and Kuch is coming in with good metrics over his last three tourneys. No one under 27 years old has ever won this tourney. This is a Pete Dye course so KH Lee has to be in the conversation as well. Almost every golfer in the top 50 will tee it up, You will have to make some hard decisions in the 7 and 8 K range and stick to your guns, we can’t play them all.

Recent Results

Last week there were two Frisky Biscuits. Meronk got caught on the back 9 weather on Saturday and didn’t bring home the biscuit. Mac Hughes, 6200 and barely owned, made the cut and brought great value. This pushes our overall record to 41-8. Our record since the Sentry in January is 21-2.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for rain on Friday, not as much as was reported earlier in the week. The winds look to be from 9 to 15 mph throughout the tourney. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The RBC DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Cantlay, Patrick	24.8	10300
Im, Sungjae	21.3	8600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	20.9	8400
Lowry, Shane	19.7	8300
Morikawa, Collin	19.6	10000
Kucher, Matt	19.4	7700
Schauffele, Xander	16.8	9300
Hatton, Tyrrell	16.4	8200
Young, Cameron	15.9	9600
Finau, Tony	15.9	9400
Conners, Corey	14.8	7800
Hovland, Viktor	14.6	9800
Thomas, Justin	14.6	8900
Homa, Max	14.2	9100
Henley, Russell	14.1	7800
Scheffler, Scottie	13.9	11000
Kim, Tom (Joohyung)	13.8	8500
Kim, Si Woo	12.6	7600
Fowler, Rickie	12.4	7600
Poston, JT	11.8	7300
Rose, Justin	11.6	7700
Burns, Sam	10.4	8700
Spieth, Jordan	10.2	10400
Clark, Wyndham	9.3	7600
Kirk, Chris	8.5	7500
Hoge, Tom	8.4	7400
Theegala, Sahith	7.9	8000
McCarthy, Denny	7.8	7200
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan	7.2	7100
Harman, Brian	7.1	7300
Fleetwood, Tommy	6.9	8100
Wallace, Matt	6.6	7300
Martin, Ben	6.4	7100
Hadwin, Adam	6.3	7300
Mitchell, Keith	6.2	7500
Bradley, Keegan	6.1	7900
Simpson, Webb	5.9	7400
Svensson, Adam	5.7	7000
Power, Seamus	5.4	7300
Spaun, JJ	5.4	6900
Todd, Brendon	5.3	6900
Straka, Sepp	5.2	7200
Taylor, Nick	5.2	6900
Stevens, Sam	5.1	7000
McNealy, Maverick	4.9	7200
Kitayama, Kurt	4.8	7100
Griffin, Ben	4.8	6900
Moore, Taylor	4.7	7400
Dahmen, Joel	4.7	6900
Duncan, Tyler	4.6	6800
Woodland, Gary	4.4	7500
Suh, Justin	4.4	7000
Davis, Cameron	4.2	7100
Lee, KH	4.1	7200
Montgomery, Taylor	3.9	7500
Lee, Min Woo	3.6	7400
Ryder, Sam	3.5	7200
Putnam, Andrew	2.9	6700
Rai, Aaron	2.8	7000
Jaeger, Stephan	2.6	7000
Bhatia, Akshay	2.6	6800
Horschel, Billy	2.3	7300
Scott,Adam	2.3	7400
Buckley, Hayden	2.2	6800
Thompson, Michael	2.2	6700
Riley, Davis	1.9	7100
English, Harris	1.9	7200
Hughes, Mackenzie	1.8	7000
List, Luke	1.8	6600
Ghim, Doug	1.7	6500
Fox, Ryan	1.6	7200
Griffin, Lanto	1.6	6800
Grillo, Emiliano	1.5	7000
Stallings, Scott	1.5	6800
Smalley, Alex	1.5	6700
Rodgers, Patrick	1.4	7100
Detry,Thomas	1.4	7100
Wu, Brandon	1.4	6900
Hardy, Nick	1.3	6800
Smalley, Alex	1.3	6700
Streelman, Kevin	1.2	6600
Willett, Danny	1.1	6900
Hossler, Beau	1.0	6600
Malnati, Peter	1.0	6400
Schenk, Adam	0.9	6800
Hodges, Lee	0.9	6700
Palmer, Ryan	0.9	6600
Piercy, Scott	0.9	6600
Glover, Lucas	0.9	6600
Thompson, Davis	0.8	6700
Lipsky, David	0.8	6500
NeSmith, Matthew	0.8	6500
Kodaira, Satoshi	0.8	6300
Moore, Ryan	0.8	6100
Kizzire, Patton	0.7	6700
Kisner, Kevin	0.7	6400
Donald, Luke	0.7	6400
Redman, Doc	0.7	6200
Pendrith, Taylor	0.6	6900
Herbert, Lucas	0.6	6800
Higgo, Garrick	0.6	6700
Cink, Stewart	0.6	6500
Hubbard, Mark	0.6	6500
Johnson, Zack	0.6	6400
Sigg, Greyson	0.6	6200
Furyk, Jim	0.6	6200
Tarren, Callum	0.6	6100
Lashley, Nate	0.5	6600
Taylor, Ben	0.5	6500
Hickok, Kramer	0.5	6500
Merritt, Troy	0.5	6200
Van Rooyen, Erik	0.4	6700
Pan, CT	0.4	6600
Hadley, Chesson	0.4	6500
Mullinax, Trey	0.4	6400
Frittelli, Dylan	0.4	6300
Smotherman, Austin	0.4	6300
Echavarria, Nico	0.4	6200
Knox, Russell	0.3	6300
Long, Adam	0.2	6300
Champ, Cameron	0.1	6400
Reavie, Chez	0.1	6300
Tway, Kevin	0.1	6300
Lower, Justin	0.1	6300
Laird, Martin	0.1	6200
Walker, Jimmy	0.1	6200
Hahn, James	0.1	6200
Els, Ernie	0.1	6100
Young, Carson	0.1	6100
Herman, Jim	0.1	6100
Landry, Andrew	0.1	6000
Streb, Robert	0.1	6000
Schwab, Matthias	0.0	6400
Ramey, Chad	0.0	6400
Dufner, Jason	0.0	6100
Werenski, Richy	0.0	6100
Brehm, Ryan	0.0	6100
Bryan, Wesley	0.0	6000
Gay, Brian	0.0	6000
Kraft, Kelly	0.0	6000
McGreevy, Max	0.0	6000
Love III, Davis	0.0	6000
Gibson, Tommy	0.0	6000

These figures for The Masters DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:39 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

**UPDATE** At the time of our program end only 34,000 of 59,000 entries were in. Please be aware that Morikawa, Hovland, Tom Kim and Fowler may have increased ownership by lock as well as the top tier.

My RBC Top Plays

Top Tier: Cam Young

Mid Tier: Tom Kim

Low Tier: Matt Kuchar

Out in Left Play: Nick Taylor

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Brian Harman

FR Leader: JT Poston (Contrarian)

What to Watch

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who picks winners every week like most people pick their nose. Also look for the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

Parting Shot

Last week Brooks Koepka blamed Patrick Cantlay and his slow play for his losing to John Rahm. I see it differently. Brooks is a multi major champion and deserves the respect that comes with his accomplishments. His decision to go to LIV was all his. At LIV golf they only play 54 holes. In the PGA they play 72.

On Sunday the two played almost 27 holes of golf due to the incomplete 3rd round. John Rahm is used to the pressure on the back nine of a PGA tourney and a major, Brooks Koepka used to be, but not any more. For three days he shot lights out golf with a steely demeanor that looked invincible. He eventually lost his focus, concentration and stamina on the last nine holes. John Rahm had to be patient and wait just as long as Brooks, he simply took a 4 stroke lead that Brooks couldn’t overcome by using those same metrics.

Maybe all those millions from the Saudi’s will be a comfort, although he probably would have given it all back to be crowned a Masters champion.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Masters

cdenny99@hotmail.com 2 years ago

written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Masters DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections at storied Augusta. This is the first major tourney of the year and is my all time favorite. The most tradition rich tourney in the world starts Thursday morning by past champions teeing off in a salute to times gone by. CBS calls it a “tradition like no other”. Our Masters DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections have one purpose, to help the Win Daily Sports family get the points to make some serious cash, week after week.

The Course

Rae’s creek winds gently through Amen corner that often decides the Masters winners and almost winners. Jordan Spieth’s meltdown on 12 at +8 is a prime example. Charles Howell lll had a +9 on hole 11 in 2006. Tom Weiskopf had a +13 on hole 12 in 1980. Tommy Nakajima matched hole 13 with a +13 in 1978. There is a long list of golfers who were just under these scores as well. Augusta is massive, 7,545 yards. With rain forecast for most of this week it will play longer. Expect the bombers to gain a slight edge and the volatility to go up a notch.

Recent Results

Last week there were two Frisky Biscuits that made the cut. Kevin Chappell was 6500, and Trevor Werbylo was 6200 and owned by .06 % of the field. That gives our Win Daily Sports family gargantuan leverage. That brings our record to 40-7 for golfers in the 6K salary range that are under 5% owned. Our record since the new season in January is 20-1.

The Course – The Field

This tourney is loaded with talent. The top 50 in the world, major champions, past champions and top amateurs with the rare special exemption added occasionally. There will be LIV golfers there as well. Notable players include Rory, Rahm, Scheffler, Spieth, JT, Finau, Conners, DJ, Koepka, Bryson, and Hideki. Our pool for the Frisky Biscuit includes Watson, Hoge, Gooch, Noren, Willett, Meronk, Zach and Varner all depending on their ownership.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for rain and thunderstorms throughout the tourney. The Masters has the most sophisticated drainage and irrigation system on the planet. For now there is an edge for Thursday PM and Friday AM, but that could change very rapidly. We will be posting updates in the Win Daily Sports Discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Masters DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
McIlroy, Rory	26.3	10600
Conners, Corey	25.2	7600
Finau, Tony	23.9	8900
Im, Sungjae	21.4	8100
Scheffler, Scottie	21.3	11100
Cantlay, Patrick	19.6	9500
Schauffele, Xander	19.5	9000
Day, Jason	19.3	8700
Hovland, Viktor	17.7	8500
Young, Cameron	17.4	8600
Rahm, John	17.1	10800
Thomas, Justin	16.4	9300
Koepka, Brooks	15.1	7600
Morikawa, Collin	14.8	9100
Spieth, Jordan	13.9	9700
Johnson, Dustin	13.8	8800
Zalatoris,Will	13.4	8200
Matsuyama, Hideki	13.3	8400
Rose, Justin	13.1	7800
Fitzpatrick, Mathew	12.9	8000
Hatton, Tyrrell	12.8	7900
Pereira, Mito	12.8	7200
Fleetwood, Tommy	12.7	7700
Mitchell, Keith	12.2	7100
Hoge, Tom	11.8	6900
Lee, Min Woo	11.3	7600
Kim, Si Woo	10.7	7400
Lowry, Shane	10.4	7900
Homa, Max	9.8	9200
Burns, Sam	9.7	8300
Reed, Patrick	9.6	7300
Gooch, Talor	8.8	6800
Niemann, Joaquin	8.2	7800
Willett, Danny	8.1	6600
Smith, Cameron	7.9	9800
Kitayama, Kurt	7.3	7100
Henley, Russell	7.1	7000
Kim, Tom (Joohyung)	5.8	7700
Bradley, Keegan	5.8	7400
Theegala, Sahith	5.7	7500
Harman, Brian	5.7	6700
Kirk, Chris	5.6	7100
Power, Seamus	5.4	6800
Woods, Tiger	5.0	7300
Moore, Taylor	4.6	7300
Scott,Adam	4.4	7500
Oosthuizen, Louis	3.5	7200
Fox, Ryan	3.5	6700
Varner III, Harold	3.4	6500
Woodland, Gary	3.3	6700
Noren, Alexander	3.2	6800
Straka, Sepp	3.1	6300
Poston, JT	2.7	6600
Ancer, Abraham	2.6	7400
Lee, KH	2.5	6400
Meronk, Adrian	2.4	6400
Kokrak, Jason	2.2	6500
English, Harris	2.1	6700
Svensson, Adam	2.1	6500
Pieters, Thomas	1.9	6900
Garcia, Sergio	1.7	7000
Na, Kevin	1.4	6500
Horschel, Billy	1.2	7000
Champ, Cameron	1.2	6600
DeChambeau, Bryson	1.1	7500
Watson, Bubba	1.1	6900
Hughes, Mackenzie	0.9	6300
Sargent, Gordon	0.9	6100
Stallings, Scott	0.8	6300
Molinari, Francesco	0.4	6600
Mickelson, Phil	0.4	6400
Schwartzel, Charl	0.3	6400
Johnson, Zack	0.3	6300
Higa, Kazuki	0.3	6300
Bennett, Sam (a)	0.3	6200
Kisner, Kevin	0.2	6200
Langer, Bernhard	0.2	6100
Singh, Vijay	0.2	6000
Weir, Mike	0.2	6000
Potgieter, Aldrich	0.1	6200
Mize, Larry	0.1	6100
Carr, Ben	0.1	6100
Couples, Fred	0.1	6000
Fernandez de Oliveira, Mateo (a)	0.1	6000
McClean, Matthew	0.1	6000
Crowe, Harrison	0.1	6200
Lyle, Sandy	0.0	6000
Olazabal, Jose Maria	0.0	6000

These figures for The Masters DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:35 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

**UPDATE** The Ownership numbers may move based on hourly weather projections. Expect Corey Conners to be 30-40% in the 333.00 to 2222.00 contests.

My Masters Top Plays

Top Tier: Spieth

Mid Tier: IM

Low Tier: Conners

Out in Left Play: Gooch

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Spieth

FR Leader: Kitayama

What to Watch

Parting Shot

Last year a Masters member couldn’t make it to the tourney, so he invited his good friend to go in his place. His friend made the mistake of taking his cell phone and letting it ring loudly while a player was teeing off. He was escorted off the grounds, told not to come back and his friend who gave him the coveted ticket had his membership revoked. They recommend you don’t bring a cell phone and to only speak in whispers and they aren’t joking. F* around and Find out! You have to love it!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

2 years ago 0 comments

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2023 Masters Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Augusta National Golf Club. Few places on earth evoke the same emotion from even the most rudimentary golf fan. Perhaps for you it is the legacy of the greats having won here. Perhaps it is the iconic Masters theme song. Or perhaps it is the stash of pimento cheese sandwich ingredients stocking your fridge, still costing just $1.50 on course, ready for the greatest weekend in golf (recipe here). Either way, we all know that this week is special in not only the world of golf, but for sport in general. And having successfully tipped 4 of the last 7 Masters (Willett, Garcia, Woods, and Matsuyama), hopefully our 2023 Masters Picks are special too.

It truly was a spectacular March where we bagged Kurt Kitayama at 60/1 after round 1, Taylor Moore at 70/1, and Nick Bachem at 100/1. That stunning run has elevated our profit further for the year to +13% on the DP World Tour, a whopping +59% on the PGA Tour, and +41% overall. That truly puts these selections within the top echelon of golf analysts. Long may that run continue.

Course Analysis

The first starting point for our 2023 Masters picks at Augusta National should perhaps simply state that the course is long. Very long. Ranking in the top 5 of the regular tournament stops for course length, this fact continues to go missed. This is possibly due to the few golfers who have managed to buck the trend, perhaps most notably with Zach Johnson.

This, however, is not the norm. Driving distance is a huge asset to have in your arsenal here. It should form a base for your 2023 Masters picks. The par 5 13th has been lengthened by 35 yards, ensuring that we will see many more players choosing to lay up rather than risking a trip into Rae’s Creek. Even then, Rory McIlroy described hitting a perfect drive and being left with a 5 iron for his second shot with the ball 20 inches above his feet. A daunting shot for even the most calm of heads, and surely further enhanced if in contention come Sunday.

Adding to this is that the fairway grass at Augusta is traditionally mown towards the tee, limiting run out. And, with wet weather forecast for this year’s tournament, this will see even less carry compared to previous iterations. Fortunately, the fairways are reasonably wide with less penal rough than seen on other courses.

What is at a premium for our 2023 Masters picks is iron play, with McIlroy describing this as trying to hit a corridor of just 5-10 yards in some instances or you will be off the green. Shot-shaping remains key and, famously, a draw is required on a number of holes to really take advantage of the topography.

Course Comps for our 2023 Masters Picks

Firstly, it should be noted that the best comp course for The Masters is actually simply itself. Augusta National has the “stickiest” course history of any regular course on the schedule. This is tempered (only somewhat) by the fact that this is a smaller field and often features many of the same names year on year. However, there are absolutely intricacies to this place which make it a unique test.

Good guides for The Masters can be found at Riviera Country Club, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, Liberty National, Muirfield Village, and the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. All are less penal off the tee, demand long driving distance, and ball striking is at a premium.

The other notable guide has been the Dubai Desert Classic. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The form lines go further than this, with multiple top finishes translating to success at The Masters.

Weather for our 2023 Masters Picks

Augusta loves to throw up a curly weather forecast in the lead to The Masters. This year has proven no exception, providing possibly the most challenging forecast to wrap our head around. Thunderstorms were originally forecast all four days. The threat of this Thursday has dissipated somewhat, with conditions to improve as the day goes on. Calmest winds are forecast for the evening.

Friday the chance of thunderstorms remains. Friday AM should provide the lowest winds all week. Rain should arrive in the late afternoon. This will sometimes be heavy. Winds should also rise substantially in the afternoon. However, Saturday could possibly be the absolute worst of it. Very heavy rains is forecast, which would see significant delay of play. Comparatively, Sunday looks at least drier and slightly less windy.

My lean, after much analysis, is that a Thursday PM/Friday AM start looks to shape best this year. This comes with it’s own risks. Any thunderstorms or delays in play early could completely flip this edge. However, I feel somewhat confident that some form of edge will develop and that it is most likely to be for the Thursday PM tee time groupings.

All up, this equates to a scenario where I can at least say this. Should the forecast remain as is, we will be looking at our first Monday finish for The Masters since 1983.

2023 Masters Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Masters Picks Favourite
5pts WIN +750 Draftkings
5pts Top 5 +165 Draftkings
or 5pts E/W +700 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Jason Day
2pts WIN +2800 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +210 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2500 (Multiple, with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
FUTURE 1pt E/W +5000 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 10 +210 Bet365 or +200 MGM

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value
FUTURE 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365, with 5 places 1/4 odds) or +15000 WIN Draftkings
2pts Top 20 +200 Draftkings

Ryan Fox
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings/MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +22500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +220 Bet365 or +165 Draftkings

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +23000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365, with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 30 +175 Draftkings

Player Profiles

Rory McIlroy – Your 2023 Master Picks Favourite

Will this be the year? So often with regard to McIlroy, that is the question that crosses the lips of every golf fan entering The Masters. As subscribers of WinDaily will know, it is extremely rare for me to go to the top of the board in my selections. In this case, I believe it is warranted.

McIlroy stuck a calm and composed figure in the press conference this year. He oozed confidence, even admitting he has realized he This was in stark contrast to last year, where he was nervous and somewhat irritable. Perhaps, this may have been due to the cloud of LIV Golf appearing on the horizon. Ironically, he would finish 2nd carding a record equaling 64 on Sunday in what may in retrospect become his breakthrough moment.

Rory has spent extended time at Augusta National this year. He has already completed more than 81 holes in the last two weeks. With a new driver and putter in the bag, both have yielded immediate results for him. The driver of particular is of note. That is the cornerstone of Rory’s game. Finding comfort off the tee, with his prodigious driving distance, will be key to his success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG4c_QGn66o&t=167s

Rory and LIV Golf

I also noted that Rory played 9 holes with Brooks Koepka. My speculation would be that he simply wishes to leave no stone unturned in his preparations. Part of that involved putting himself in close proximity playing with a LIV golfer.

The fact is, performance at this year’s Masters is essential for the LIV Golf pros. For a tour struggling for relevance, this almost feels like the last chance saloon for them. Greg Norman has already thrown fuel on the fire by suggesting the LIV golfers would storm the 18th green if one of them won. As the face of the PGA Tour throughout this period, without doubt Rory will be doing everything in his power to stop that happening.

Conversely, this may benefit Rory as he headlines our 2023 Masters picks. We saw what he did at the Canadian Open after some inflammatory comments from Norman. The fact that his performance could become bigger than him and instead become a narrative about the entire future of the professional game of golf is, in my opinion, a good thing.

Finally, it was aforementioned that both Willett and Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic the year they won The Masters. The 2023 Dubai Desert Classic champion? Rory McIlroy. His 3rd win at that event.

Jason Day

Experiencing a sharp return to form towards the backend of 2022, Jason Day is back! The resurgence has since resulted in a run of 6 consecutive top 20 finishes and a quarterfinal run at the WGC Matchplay before just falling short to one Scottie Scheffler.

It seems somewhat unbelievable that Day holds just one major given his prior high-flying status. His record at the Masters is decent, holding a 2nd on debut in 2011 alongside a 3rd, 10th, and a number of top 30 finishes. Missed cuts in 2020 and 2021 can be discounted given the abysmal state of his game in those years.

Day possess the credentials and the all round game to compete here. His excellent short game will be an asset in any torrid weather conditions that come his way. Over the last 6 months, he ranks inside the top 20 in every singles strokes gained metric including. Notably, he is also sitting 3rd for SG Total over the last 3 months in this field. I also love his putting stats on the pure bentgrass greens of Muirfield. He makes a compelling case for me, in what would be an emotional victory solidifying his return to the top echelons of the game.

Tony Finau

Finau already boasts a promising Masters resume, with no missed cuts for finishes of 10-5-38-10-35. He firmly put to bed the biggest concern of his game over the last 18 months: winning. 4 wins over that period saw him surge to the forefront of everyone’s minds. It does, however, seem he is going missed a little this week.

Since November, Finau has not finished outside the top 25 on tour. The majority of these have also included the top fields in the newly formed elevated events. Included in that run is a 7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which is highly correlated to Augusta National with it’s undulating fairways resulting in many approach shots with the ball either above or below the player’s feet.

Finau rates out as 4th in SG: APP, 8th SG: T2G, and 5th SG: Total in this field over the last 6 months. Those numbers only improve when looking at a 3 month window. A breakthrough Masters victory would come at no surprise, for a golfer we advised WinDaily to back here in July 2022. I still like him at the odds on offer now, given the continued improvement in his game.

Min Woo Lee – Your 2023 Masters Picks Best Value

The talented 24 year old Australian has long been ear-marked in my books as a potential major winner. In fact, his sister Minjee Lee has already done the job twice in majors on the LPGA. Min Woo Lee boasts prodigious distance off the tee, a key focus for me in my selections this week. He is one of my biggest movers this week given this and his weighted approach numbers to suit Augusta National.

He saw this on display in his Masters debut, where he finished 14th. That result was perhaps even better than it first looks, given he shot a 40 back 9 on Sunday to drop 4 shots coming home. I can easily forgive this for a young talented golfer suddenly finding himself firmly in the top 10 of the Masters. He has since backed this performance up with finishes of 21st and 27th at The Open and the US Open respectively. A recent 6th at The Players Championship again reaffirmed that Min Woo can produce his best at these high profile events. A second up win at big odds could shock many but the most astute pundits.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox profiles as one of the best outsiders at this tournament for our 2023 Masters picks. I’ll admit I was very drawn to Thomas Pieters in this spot, with Foxy just gaining the edge given the perceived tee time advantage.

Fox boasts huge distance off the tee, sitting 6th in this field over the last 2 years for driving distance. What he has found over the last year is a tangible improvement in his approach play, alongside gains around the greens and putting. 2022 saw Ryan Fox claim two victories, including the prestigious Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a stacked field.

I do note it is his Masters debut. We have weighted the expectations accordingly. However, he profiles extremely well given his raw power combined with the long iron approach play and deft touch around the greens. A rare and dangerous combination for a player with such driving distance.

Taylor Moore

Finally, we wrap up our 2023 Masters picks with a speculative play on the talented Taylor Moore. Moore punched his ticket for the Masters with a win at the Valspar Championship. As mentioned, Copperhead may very well be a decent course comp to here. Patrick Reed was 2nd there before winning the Masters. Spieth won both in 2015 (although, he also just won a lot in general that year). Charl Schwartzel has also completed the double. He understandably has foregone a start at the Valero Texas Open to prepare for this event after the Valspar win.

Over the last 3 months Moore sits 16th for SG: Total, 13th for SG: OTT, and 15th for SG: PUTT. I love the fact he earns his strokes off the tee not just with his driving distance (27th in this field), but also by being highly accurate. A confident driver of the ball is always a great start at Augusta.

Basically, this is far too much value on this price. With fair odds sitting more in the 150-170 mark, weighting for margin of error, we can be delighted with the price being put out for him here.

Thank you reading our 2023 Masters picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Valero Texas Open Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Having already scored 60/1 and 70/1 wins in March, it was another huge winner at 110/1 to round out an amazing month for our selections. It bears noting that not only is our recent form red hot, but we tipped J.J. Spaun at 150/1 here in 2022 to frame this year’s Valero Texas Open picks.

Nick Bachem’s monumental rise saw him win in just his 12th start on the DP World Tour. We had taken Bachem the week prior at 250/1, where he duly finished in the top 20. Arriving at a course that rewarded long-driving and was perhaps even better suited, it was a no brainer to remain with him the following week. He rewarded that loyalty richly. We also scored top place finishes on Alejandro del Rey Top 20 and James Hart du Preez Top 40.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1639969669456035843?s=20

It was a consecutive runner-up for us at the WGC Matchplay. Having tipped Kevin Kisner at 50/1 in 2022, Cam Young at 33/1 was arguably the form golfer of the tournament. We also had Kuchar advancing from his group at +350. We picked 4/5 and 6/7 matches correctly on day 2 and day 3 respectively. It was great to see so many winnings tickets in the WinDaily Discord.

Finally, Corales Puntacana Championship saw us score place payouts with Thomas Detry and Ben Martin both in 8th. Detry particularly was disappointing, having been one shot off the lead heading into Sunday before another poor finish in what has become all too familiar a pattern for him. Vincent Norrman scored a Top 20 and Brandon Matthews a Top 40 for us. Ben Martin was the first round leader and we had a top 5 FRL from Max McGreevy at 200/1 for that market. More on him shortly in our Valero Texas Open Picks.

Course Analysis

TPC San Antonio provides a relatively stern test this week, ranking 18th most difficult last year. The course is a fairly standard 7,438 yard par-72. I want to take two notes from this though. Firstly, it does play slightly shorter as firm fairways see drives continue past the carry. And secondly, three of the par 5s are very long at 591 yards, 602 yards, and 604 yards. Obviously, this eats up a fair chunk of that yardage and limit those who can go for those holes in two.

Fairways are thin with an average of 27 yards width at 325 yards, compared to say Bay Hill at 39 yards wide. Although regarded as a desert course, fairways are tree-lined with surrounding waste area. Certainly, the rough is not overly punishing if you just stray from the fairway. In fact, the rough ranks as the least penal on the PGA Tour. This is both due to length of just 2.25in and the fact many of these shots are with wedge in hand. However, anything which is very wide is liable to find the desert areas and significant trouble with the chance of multiple dropped shots.

Greens are multi-tiered and grass is Bermuda overseeded with perennial ryegrass (same grass as seen at the WGC Matchplay, Valspar Championship, and The Players Championship). Notably, although the greens are relatively large the fact that there are many multi-tiered greens means the actual target is substantially reduced. Approach play is essential to insure you end up on the correct tier, with an emphasis on putting and short game imperative. This is especially true given the heavy bunkering on course.

https://tpc.com/sanantonio/wp-content/uploads/sites/36/2021/02/Pre-1st-The-Oaks-Course-Drone.mp4

Comp Courses Guiding our Valero Texas Open Picks

Although not a comp course, it is worth noting Texas connections in this tournament. Notably, Texans or those with strong Texas ties have often stepped up here. The Texas Open is the PGA Tour’s 3rd oldest tournament and has been running for a century. It has real heritage and it means more to those with links to the state. Prior Texan winners include Spieth and Landry, while both Steven Bowditch and Jimmy Walker had lived in the state for years prior to their wins in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

TPC Summerlin is a good guide as another desert course that plays shorter than it’s length due to altitude, offers similar fairway widths with penalty for straying excessively wide, and undulating greens. TPC Scottsdale likewise and for similar reasons.

The American Express (and it’s compilation of desert courses) provide perhaps the best correlating guide. Andrew Landry held a win and 2nd at The American Express prior to his Texas Open victory. Other winners continue the story. Kevin Chappell has a 6th and an 8th there (also holds a 3rd and 4th in Texas), Brendan Steele a 2nd and a 6th, Zach Johnson a 3rd and 8th and Hoffman a 2nd and a 9th. El Cameleon also has some noteworthy links. Charley Hoffman has won at both, with John Huh and Matt Kuchar adding further ties.

Weather

It does look like weather will play a factor in some form or another for our Valero Texas Open picks. Particularly, the often windy state looks set to provide as such over the first two days of play.

The area has been in a period of drought for 3 years and been under water restrictions for more than a year. Some much needed relief to the ground will come over night on Thursday. With the ground being so dry, I expect any easing in the firm conditions will be unlikely to last until the afternoon. Thursday AM provides the calmest conditions across the first two days. Winds will increase throughout the day with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Conversely, Friday AM provides the windiest conditions of the two days. Gust are set to peak over 30 mph, before easing as the afternoon goes on.

Whenever there are thunderstorms in the forecast, this does present some risk that the weather may flip. This is tempered in this case. Even if the Thursday PM thunderstorms do arrive and delay play, this would only force the players back out in windier conditions Friday AM and then require them to go right back out into those same winds. This is a decent edge to Thursday AM/Friday PM which we currently estimate will finish in a 0.8-1.2 strokes average edge.

2023 Valero Texas Open Picks

Golf Betting Tips

Chris Kirk
Brendon Todd
Andrew Putnam
Beau Hossler
Nick Hardy
Doug Ghim
Kevin Chappell
Max McGreevy

Suggested Staking

Chris Kirk – Your Valero Texas Open Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2800 Fanduel/Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +320 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
2.5pts WIN +4600 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +500 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Andrew Putnam
2.5pts WIN +5500 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +550 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2.5pts WIN +6600 MGM
2.5pts Top 10 +600 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nick Hardy
1pt WIN +8000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +375 Bet365

Doug Ghim
1pt WIN +21000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +1300 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +500 Draftkings or Bet365

Kevin Chappell – Your Valero Texas Open Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings
0.5pts TOP 10 +1400 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 Fanduel/Draftkings or +650 Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +195 Fanduel or +210 Bet365

Max McGreevy
0.5pts WIN +150000 Draftkings
0.5pts TOP 10 +8000 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +2500 Draftkings or +2000 William Hill
And
2pts Top 40 +550 Fanduel or Bet365

Thank you reading our 2023 WGC Matchplay picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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