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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The U.S. Open

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

It’s finally here. Our nations golf championship. The truest and arguably the toughest test a golfer will face. When the U.S.G.A. hands the trophy adorned by Victoria, the Goddess of Victory, to a single golfer, he will observe as his name is engraved in immortality for the next Millenia. They will deserve the accolades. Lets now take a look at what these golfers are facing and who may come away victorious. The U.S. Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are tailored to bring you the pivots off heavy chalk, value, and solid sleepers to aid your teams ascension to the top of the field in multiple formats.

The Course and it’s Horses

We are at the L.A. Country Club where the Playboy Mansion sits above the 13th green, and yet Hugh Hefner was never able to gain membership. Lionel Ritchie lives above the 4th hole. This is Beverley Hills golf but make no mistake, this course isn’t a posh resort, -26 under par type of scoring opportunity. We expect a single digit victory. The fairways are firm and fast and hard to hold. Many approach shots will be blind to the green, and others will have to swing from the rough. Bermuda rough. Justin Thomas quoted that every time someone missed the fairway in practice this week it took more than one person to even find the ball. He called the rough “very, very nasty.” Favorites this week are Scheffler, Cantlay, Koepka, Morikawa, Hattan, Hovland, Xander and Rahm.

Recent Results

Last week our Frisky Biscuit play not only made the cut, he finished 9th in the tourney at 2.9% ownership. That is “off the charts” leverage. This brings our overall record to 48-12. Our record since the Sentry in January is 28-6.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “WINBIG” for a FREE week to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. Come get that top ten player that no one owns to drive your team to the top. It’s only 5.99 a week. No one works harder to get you the intel that pays. You can count on it.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for clear skies and light winds. Please note that the winds are predicted to come in from the Southwest. There are 5 par threes. Due to their positioning on the course, each one of the par 3’s will play from and into a different wind direction. Welcome to the U.S. Open. We will have updates in Discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The U.S. Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are programed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie27.911400
Schauffele, Xander21.29600
Rahm, John19.711100
Koepka, Brooks17.910800
Fowler, Rickie17.17500
McIlroy, Rory16.89900
Hovland, Viktor16.710000
Rose, Justin16.37700
Smith, Cameron16.19000
Spieth, Jordan15.99200
Hatton, Tyrrell15.88900
Cantlay, Patrick14.910300
Matsuyama, Hideki13.28600
DeChambeau, Bryson12.97600
Clark, Wyndham12.87500
Pereira, Mito12.77200
Morikawa, Collin12.49300
Fleetwood, Tommy12.37900
Scott,Adam12.27500
Henley, Russell11.87100
Homa, Max11.79400
Finau, Tony11.68800
Kim, Si Woo11.17300
Thomas, Justin10.18700
Reed, Patrick9.97500
McCarthy, Denny9.87200
Johnson, Dustin9.78300
Fitzpatrick, Mathew9.59100
Young, Cameron8.78000
Day, Jason8.58100
Theegala, Sahith8.47600
Woodland, Gary8.37200
Cole, Eric7.77000
Niemann, Joaquin7.47700
Lowry, Shane7.28500
Im, Sungjae6.98400
Conners, Corey6.67800
Rodgers, Patrick6.46900
Bradley, Keegan6.37600
Lee, Min Woo6.27000
Fox, Ryan5.87100
Schenk, Adam5.26800
Suh, Justin 5.07100
Davis, Cameron4.97200
Kitayama, Kurt 4.96800
Burns, Sam4.88200
Straka, Sepp4.87100
English, Harris4.67200
Putnam, Andrew4.26800
Hadwin, Adam4.16900
Meronk, Adrian3.96700
Kucher, Matt3.76900
Bennett, Sam (a)3.76500
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 3.57800
Herbert, Lucas 3.46700
Wu, Dylan3.36400
Taylor, Nick3.27300
Eckroat, Austin 3.07000
Mickelson, Phil2.97000
Grillo, Emiliano2.97000
Stevens, Sam2.96600
Kirk, Chris2.87100
Moore, Taylor2.47400
Garcia, Sergio2.37000
Pieters, Thomas2.36800
Mitchell, Keith2.27300
Perez, Victor 2.17300
Kim, Michael2.16900
Sargent, Gordon (a)2.16100
Buckley, Hayden2.06900
Harman, Brian1.96900
Young, Carson1.96900
Munoz, Sebastian1.96700
Power, Seamus1.87300
Hoge, Tom1.77200
Lee, KH1.67000
Poston,  JT1.56700
List, Luke1.37000
Montgomery, Taylor1.27400
Svensson, Adam1.26800
Pendrith, Taylor 1.16900
Hughes, Mackenzie1.16700
Harrington, Padrig1.16600
Langasque, Romain 1.16600
Ancer, Abraham1.07400
Norrman, Vincent1.07000
Smith, Jordan0.96900
Ortiz, Carlos0.86600
Nienaber, Wilco0.86400
Dahmen, Joel0.76800
Thornbjornsen, Michael (a)0.76200
Streelman, Kevin0.56900
Larrazabal, Pablo0.56600
Pavon, Matthieu0.56600
Hoffman, Charley0.46800
Molinari, Francesco0.36800
Stallings, Scott0.36700
Hardy, Nick0.36700
Horschel, Billy0.27100
Wise, Aaron0.27100
Thompson, Davis 0.26600
Armour, Ryan0.26500
Grant, Brent0.26300
Noren, Alexander0.17400
Lawrence, Thriston0.16600
Kaymer, Martin0.16500
Cink, Stewart0.16500
Katsuragawa, Yuto0.16500
Puig, David0.16500
Barjon, Paul0.16400
Lebioda, Hank0.16400
Haley II, Paul0.16300
Del Ray, Alejandro0.16300
Dantorp, Jens0.06700
Gerard, Ryan0.06600
Echavarria, Nico0.06500
Fisher, Ross0.06400
Horsey, David0.06400
Capan III, Frankie0.06400
Truslow, Austen0.06400
Ishikawa, Ryo 0.06300
Sloan, Roger0.06300
Henson, Berry0.06300
Mueller, Kyle0.06300
Charoenkul, Gunn0.06300
Germishuys, Deon0.06300
Svobda, Andrew0.06300
Nagano, Ryutaro0.06200
Fernandez de Oliveira, Mateo (a)0.06200
McClean, Matthew (a)0.06200
Morales, Omar (a)0.06200
Gumberg, Jordan0.06100
Cover, Patrick0.06100
Summerhays, Preston (a)0.06100
Potgieter, Aldrich (a)0.06100
Pereira, Corey0.06100
Carr, Ben (a)0.06100
Ding, Wenyi (a)0.06100
Nyfjall, David (a)0.06100
Solomon, Jacob0.06100
Schutte, Jesse0.06000
Schaake, Alex0.06000
Dunlap, Nick (a)0.06000
Brennan, Michael (a)0.06000
Moldovan, Maxwell0.06000
Brown, Barclay (a)0.06000
Valdez, Brendan (a)0.06000
Cavaliere, Christian (a)0.06000
Simmons, Isaac (a)0.06000
Vilips, Karl0.06000
Yang, Alexander (a)0.06000
Amat, Bastien (a)0.06000
Browne Jr., Olin0.06200
Forsstrom, Simon0.06500
Grey, JJ0.06200
Meissner, Mac 0.06200

These figures for The U.S. Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

**** UPDATE**** Due to majority roster construction, the 7500 -7600 range will gain further ownership. Expect Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Wyndam Clark, Rickie Fowler, and Sahith Theegala to garner additional ownership % by lock.

My U.S. Open Top Plays

Top Tier: Cantlay

Mid Tier: Rose

Low Tier: Straka

Out in Left Play: Rodgers

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: IM

FR Leader: Michael Kim (Contrarian)

What to Watch

If you want a bigger wallet and better ROI as a bettor, you have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast available on Spotify, Apple and other channels. This means you get the top % plays on H2H betting, plus top 40, top 20, top10. Let betting experts Stix and Spencer give you THE plays that offer the most percentage and edge for your hard earned money. They also have cutting edge plays for DFS each week with proven analysis. I can’t think of anyone that puts more effort into their analysis. Spencer and Stix will bring you information you can trust each and every week. The Bettor Golf Podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. Last week the Golf staff crushed the Canadian Open, especially Deep Dive Dave who continues to make incredible documented picks every single week.

It’s at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. The audience is growing every week due to the pinpoint picks by the expert staff, and it’s a blast watching them steal each other’s picks and go on complete tilt.

The elite Win Daily Sports golf staff will stay within the salary guidelines and bring you plays and value leverage. We have been breaking down the U. S. Open since last Saturday, come join us!

Parting Shot

When asked what he needed to shoot to win the tourney , Roger Maltbie said, “I guess the rest of the field.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Sports BettingPGA

U.S. Open Picks & Advice: All you need to know about the 123rd U.S. Open

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
How does Los Angeles Country Club play? The exclusive LACC plays host to our US Open Picks.

What a week at the RBC Canadian Open! Nick Taylor was included in our selections at 66/1, causing EPIC celebrations within the WinDaily Sports Discord akin to the 18th green celebrations on course. The dramatic victory and breaking of 60+ years of hoodoo managed to overshadow the PIF news and the PGA/LIV Golf merger momentarily. There is no rest though, as it is another big week with our US Open picks!

Unlike the drought of Canadian citizens winning their national open, the 66/1 win was simply a continuation of another fantastic year for our selections. We rarely give out match-up plays. However, we saw an edge in Round 4 and we went 6/6 for our selections. This follows the same at the PGA Championship, when we last gave out some Round 4 match-ups and duly went 4/4. We have now shown a return on investment in 2023 of +69% and are up +562.57 units. Profit is already guaranteed in 2023 for those who have followed!

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1669011871264034816?s=20

Los Angeles Country Club plays host to the 123rd US Open. This is the first time LA have hosted a US Open since 1940 and the inaugural US Open at this course. In fact, there have been no professional events held at this exclusive club. There have been amateur events, namely a Pac-12 Championship and Walker Cup, but this course will play so different to those events I think any perceived information from those tournaments can be largely discarded. Read on to find what we believe are the key metrics to target this week.

Los Angeles Country Club Course Analysis

The first note is this course, on paper, plays very long. A 7,421 yard would not be uncommon for a par 72. We instead find a par 70, with 5 par 3s and just 3 par 5s. However, I do think the distance needs to come with a few caveats.

Chiefly, the conditions are extremely firm and fast. This will enhance rollout, especially for those with a lower ball-flight. Where I do see driving distance being an asset is the large number of approach shots over 200+ yards. Naturally, those with increased driving distance tend to have higher clubhead speed and therefore can use a higher loft on a long approach shot. Additionally, with some pretty mean and thick rough this week. A semblance of strength will be beneficial for your US Open picks digging the ball out after missed fairways and greens.

https://twitter.com/BradFaxon/status/1668806642765365249?s=20

Much has been made of how wide these fairways are. Again, I think this requires a little more of a deep dive. Fairways are heavily sloped in many instances. In addition to the firm and fast conditions, they will play a lot narrower than on first sight.

With multiple long par 3s and some big par 4/5s, long iron approach will be imperative to success. Again, do note that of the long par 3s some significant elevation changes do occur. The 280 yard 7th hole has an exposed front and will allow players to roll the ball up to the green. The 290+ yard 11th par 3 is also severely downhill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcIcBilkJ9k&t=614s

Finally, these greens will be hard to hold. The course is as close to “links” like in nature that you may ever find at the US Open. The ability to rebound from bogeys and save par will be essential for our US Open picks.

What type of golfer suits LACC?

Overall, it looks that this will provide a stern all round examination of a golfer’s game. That starts from SG: OTT. Certainly, I do expect a situation where driving distance take precedence. But, ideally, this also comes with a modicum of accuracy. I believe an average driving distance of at least 295 yards is essential.

I have leaned heavily on long approach for the US Open picks this week. We may even see players resorting to irons and fairways woods to try hold these fairways in certain spots. This will further emphasize the need for elite long iron approach.

Around the green receives the weakest ranking of all the mainstream SG metrics. There will be some luck involved, with the bermudagrass rough around the greens so thick. Also, the long grass takes some of the skill out of such chips. However, I do believe bunker play could be a factor and there are some runoff areas which will produce tight lies.

Finally, I do weight putting a little higher than usual for our US Open picks. Particularly, this is true for bentgrass putting. Inevitably, every player will need to make their share of putts. Birdie opportunities will need to be taken; pars will need to be saved.

Course Comps for our US Open Picks

Los Angeles Country Club

From what we have been able to discern from the information available, this course does look to be quite a unique test for our US Open picks.

Elements to Augusta National are observed. There is some more width of the tee than we would usually see at a US Open venue, as well as bentgrass greens. Naturally, with the sloped fairways I can see parallels and that rings true for the Plantation Course at Kapalua as well. Plantation also requires a disproportionate number of shots over 200+ yards and under 100 yards. I like that combination, as I believe on top of the long approach shots some closer iron shots may be required if finding trouble off-the-tee.

Other US Open venues of Shinnecock, Chambers Bay, and Erin Hills. Neighbouring Riviera Country Club is also a George Thomas design and holds some parallels.

Finally, I think Scottish Open host the Renaissance Club may be a sneaky parallel. The winning score here has been -7 and -11 previously depending on setup and wind. Although in a links style, it is not a true links course. Exposed and rugged, with undulating fairways and firm conditions, the course appears to strike some similarities to LACC.

Renaissance Club

Weather for our US Open Picks

The weather still looks to be developing this week and I will provide a final update Wednesday evening in the WinDaily Sports Discord.

Overall, conditions promise to present low humidity and warm temperatures. The course should take little time to crisp up and play very firm and fast in the afternoons particularly.

Both Thursday and Friday currently look to hold a similar outlook with very calm conditions in the morning and winds picking up in the afternoon. The morning should also prevent mildly softer conditions, before the greens firm up in the combination of sun, low humidity, and breeze. As it stands, there looks to be slightly higher and more persistent winds Friday afternoon compared to Thursday.

This pattern looks to continue into the weekend, with winds gusting up to 20-25mph in the afternoons.

Given the above course analysis and predicted weather, I’m projecting a typical US Open winning score of -6 to -9 for our US Open Picks.

US Open Picks

We have 6 headline selections this week. I’ve also included 5 longshot bombs to consider. However, you’ll notice a heavily reduced win stake. The win stake is mainly to take advantage of the generous place terms, and emphasis is on the Top 20/40 options. Selections are weighted accordingly in the below suggested staking.

Headliners: Suggested Staking

Patrick Cantlay
4pts E/W +1400 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Xander Schauffele – Your US Open Picks Favourite Headliner
2.5pts E/W +1800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau
2.5pts E/W +2800 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Justin Rose
2pts E/W +3500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Rickie Fowler – Your US Open Picks Best Value Headliner
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2pts E/W +6000 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686674490596-adc9-226?id=049229b1-526f-4653-9b80-e1dbbbe058b2″]

Longshot Bombs: Suggested Staking

Ryan Fox – Your US Open Picks Favourite Longshot Bomb
1pt E/W +12500 (William Hill with 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +550 (TAB)

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pts E/W +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +250 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +170 (Bet365)

Adam Schenk – Your US Open Picks Best Value Longshot Bomb
0.25pts E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Sepp Straka
0.25pts E/W +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3.5pts Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1686675020434-adc9-981?id=bb07915b-4994-4c09-bd58-85c4c1cfc1b9″]

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 US Open picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: To celebrate our BIG win at the RBC Canadian Open, we are giving away a FREE one month trial for WinDaily Gold Membership! This is a LIMITED offer, so get in quick!

Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

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PGAPremium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the RBC Canadian Open

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Canadian Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. We all heard the news of the big merger Tuesday. Players had to find out on social media and were upset. There was a standing ovation at the players meeting in Canada when a golfer suggested that top PGA management be replaced. There was talk of the players going union. It’s all about the money, it always is. The folks who get burned are the golfers that stayed true and loyal to the PGA and that sucks. It has yet to be determined what the structure will be. We should have much bigger purses for DK golf and FD which benefits us all as DFS players. Now, there is still a tourney up north and good money up for grabs. The Canadian Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are tailored to bring you the pivots off heavy chalk, value, and solid sleepers to aid your teams ascension to the top of the field.

The Course and it’s Horses

We are at the ritzy Oakdale Golf CC which is the first time for this open. This course should play easier than St Georges, site of the 2022 open. Accuracy wins out over bombing, and approach from 150 looks to be a key metric as well. Look for the top birdie makers on an easier scoring course. The top player is Rory, and it looks like he’s staying in the tourney even with the recent developments. Other notable players are Canada’s own Corey Conners, Rose, Hatton, Fleetwood, Burns and Fitzpatrick.

Recent Results

Last week both our Frisky Biscuit and Ice Water plays made the cut and brought decent value. This brings our overall record to 47-12. Our record since the Sentry in January is 27-6.

All six of our selections listed below the ownership block made the cut last week.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “WINBIG” for a FREE week to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. One of our Win Daily golf staff, Joel, won 150K two weeks ago. It’s only 5.99 a week. If you’re tired of losing money or just breaking even in DFS, gives us a try. You’ll be glad you did.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for mild temps with no rain. I’ll have an update in discord from a person who’s on the course in Canada later tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Canadian Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are programed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
McIlroy, Rory28.911500
Hatton, Tyrrell26.810200
Rose, Justin23.19700
Young, Cameron22.89300
Burns, Sam21.410500
Fitzpatrick, Mathew19.49900
Lowry, Shane19.29400
Fleetwood, Tommy18.39600
Cole, Eric16.97900
Conners, Corey15.99800
Hubbard, Mark15.27300
Meronk, Adrian15.18600
Young, Carson13.97100
Kim, Michael11.98000
Hodges, Lee 11.77500
Taylor, Nick11.48100
Svensson, Adam11.38500
Norrman, Vincent11.27500
Theegala, Sahith10.99200
Martin, Ben9.87300
Mitchell, Keith9.78900
Kucher, Matt9.59100
Smalley, Alex 9.47800
Hadwin, Adam9.38700
Rai, Aaron9.37600
Wu, Dylan9.27000
Bhatia, Akshay 8.97200
Hojgaard, Nicolai8.18400
Todd, Brendon7.87900
Hughes, Mackenzie7.87400
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)7.87300
Wu, Brandon 7.67500
Reavie, Chez7.47100
Lipsky, David7.37400
Aberg, Ludvig7.28300
Pan, CT6.37100
Cockerill, Aaron6.27000
Pendrith, Taylor 5.87700
Hall, Harry5.67600
Ghim, Doug5.37200
Baddeley, Aaron4.97200
Higgo, Garrick4.97100
McNealy, Maverick4.77700
Thornbjornsen, Michael (a)4.57600
Lashley, Nate4.47300
Bennett, Sam (a)4.36900
Wise, Aaron4.17800
Gordon, Will3.97400
Snedeker, Brandt3.77000
Simpson, Webb2.97300
Novak, Andrew2.97000
Smotherman, Austin2.96900
Knapp, Jake2.96500
Champ, Cameron2.87200
Hickok, Kramer2.86700
Shelton, Robby2.67100
Redman, Doc2.66800
Kizzire, Patton2.47100
Glover, Lucas2.26700
Piercy, Scott1.97100
Silverman, Ben1.96800
Kuest, Peter1.96100
Sigg, Greyson 1.76800
Tarren, Callum1.76700
Gerard, Ryan1.76600
Murray, Grayson1.66900
Duo, Zecheng1.56900
Griffin, Lanto1.47000
Duncan, Tyler1.46800
Moore, Ryan1.46400
Armour, Ryan1.46400
Van Rooyen, Erik1.36800
Nunez, Augusto1.27000
Lower, Justin1.26700
O’Hair, Sean1.16700
Hadley, Chesson0.96600
Lingmerth, David0.96500
Knox, Russell0.96200
Ramey, Chad0.87000
Long, Adam0.86800
Westmoreland, Kyle0.86300
Tway, Kevin0.76600
Chappell, Kevin0.66900
Daffue, MJ0.66900
Noh, Seung-Yul0.66800
Garnett, Brice0.66700
Higgs, Harry0.66500
Bryan, Wesley0.66000
Laird, Martin0.56600
Roy, Kevin0.56600
Hahn, James0.46800
Malnati, Peter0.46700
Lebioda, Hank0.46600
Creighton, Myles0.46400
Whaley, Vincent0.36800
Gribble, Cody0.36600
Haley II, Paul0.36600
Percy, Cameron0.36500
Cook, Austin0.36500
Werenski, Richy0.36400
Gligic, Michael0.36300
Kang, Sung0.26300
Schwab, Matthias 0.26300
Bae, Sangmoon 0.26100
Yuan, Carl0.16900
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)0.16900
Stroud, Chris0.16500
Harrington, Scott0.16400
Grant, Brent0.16400
Cone, Trevor0.16400
Endycott, Harrison0.16300
Werbylo, Trevor0.16300
Dufner, Jason0.16200
Herman, Jim0.16200
Hearn, David0.16100
Villegas, Camilo0.16100
Brown, Scott0.16100
Hall, Ryan 0.16000
Byrd, Jonathan0.06700
Norlander, Henrik0.06700
Trainer, Martin0.06600
Streb, Robert0.06500
Sloan, Roger0.06500
Haas, Bill0.06400
Matthews, Brandon0.06400
Brehm, Ryan0.06300
Alexander, Tyson0.06300
Watney, Nick0.06200
Ogilvy, Geoff0.06200
McGirt, William0.06200
Gainey, Tommy 0.06200
Kraft, Kelly0.06200
Macdonald, Stuart0.06200
Stuard, Brian0.06100
Gay, Brian0.06100
Block, Michael0.06100
Travale, Johnny (a)0.06100
Carey, David0.06100
Carrera, Luis0.06100
Durham, Taylor (a)0.06100
Crane, Ben0.06000
Barnes, Ricky0.06000
Ernst, Derek0.06000
Weir, Mike0.06000
Landry, Andrew0.06000
Lamely, Derek0.06000
Kim, Daniel0.06000
Nesbitt, Drew0.06000
McGreevy, Max0.06000
Szirmark, Sebastian0.06000
ALL OTHERS0.0

These figures for The Canadian Open DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:27 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My Canadian Open Top Plays

Top Tier: Hatton

Mid Tier: McNealy

Low Tier: Carson Young

Out in Left Play: Novak

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Rose

FR Leader: Cole (Contrarian)

What to Watch

If you want a bigger blast and better ROI as a bettor, you have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast available on Spotify, Apple and other channels. This means you get the top % plays on H2H betting, top 40, top 20, top10. Let betting experts Stix and Spencer give you THE plays that offer the most percentage and edge for your hard earned money. They also have cutting edge plays for DFS each week with proven analysis. No one works harder or puts more effort into their analysis. Spencer and Stix will bring you information you can trust each and every week. The Bettor Golf Podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who has picked winners week after week since January. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

It’s at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. The audience is growing every week due to the pinpoint picks by the expert staff, and it’s a blast watching them pilfer each other’s picks.

The elite Win Daily Sports golf staff will stay within the salary guidelines and bring you plays and value leverage. Many Win Daily Sports players pick the same players the experts do to comfortably cash on Sunday.

Parting Shot

I would tell my players to ask this concerning LIV- “Have you ever had to apologize for being on the PGA Tour”

Jay Monahan

Now they’ll have to apologize everyday. It’s always about the money. Always.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Memorial

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Memorial DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. This is the course that Jack built. This is the tourney where everyone plays to shake Jack’s hand at the end. That Jack is Mr. Nicklaus, arguably (with apologies to Tiger) the best golfer to ever play the game. This course will test every and all facets of a golfers game. The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, pivots and value plays to drive you to the top of the DFS contests.

The Course and it’s Horses

This is Muirfield Village. Generous fairways and lightening fast greens with extremely penal rough. Accuracy off the tee is a must, as well as hitting your spots on approach. Its practically impossible to hit the greens from the rough. Max Homa and Tony Finau passed on playing this week and they won’t be missed with all the star power going to pay homage to Jack. Notables include Rahm, Scheffler, Rory, Hovland, Cantlay and Schauffele.

The course got considerable rain at the start of spring. The rough is very thick and 4 inches plus. It hasn’t rained in that area for three straight weeks. The greens are razor fast and baked, just how Jack likes it.

Recent Results

Last week both our frisky biscuit and ice water plays made the cut and brought good value. This brings our overall record to 45-12. Our record since the Sentry in January is 25-6.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “WINBIG” for a FREE week to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. One of our Win Daily golf staff, Joel, won 150K two weeks ago. It’s only 5.99 a week. If you’re tired of losing money or just breaking even in DFS, gives us a try. You’ll be glad you did.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for calm conditions with winds at 7-10 MPH. On the weekend gusts may increase to 15 and their is no precipitation at this time. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Memorial DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are programed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie26.811300
Cantlay, Patrick22.110500
Rahm, John21.411000
Schauffele, Xander18.910200
Fowler, Rickie18.48500
Hatton, Tyrrell17.29300
Matsuyama, Hideki15.58700
Hovland, Viktor15.49700
Kim, Si Woo14.88000
Conners, Corey14.78300
Scott,Adam14.48000
Theegala, Sahith13.98400
Lowry, Shane13.58100
Henley, Russell13.17900
Thomas, Justin12.69200
McIlroy, Rory11.210600
Morikawa, Collin10.79900
Day, Jason10.39400
Fitzpatrick, Mathew9.69000
Spieth, Jordan9.48900
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 9.47900
Bradley, Keegan9.37800
Im, Sungjae8.99100
Kucher, Matt7.97500
McCarthy, Denny7.87600
Young, Cameron7.78800
Clark, Wyndham7.38200
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan7.37200
Svensson, Adam6.86900
Smalley, Alex 6.76800
Lee, KH6.67300
An, Byeong6.47400
Fox, Ryan6.37100
Grillo, Emiliano6.27800
Woodland, Gary5.97700
Eckroat, Austin 5.96600
Davis, Cameron5.87700
English, Harris5.77500
Kirk, Chris5.77400
Rai, Aaron5.66500
Burns, Sam5.48600
Streelman, Kevin5.46700
Rodgers, Patrick5.37100
Suh, Justin 5.36900
Straka, Sepp5.36600
Horschel, Billy5.27500
Hubbard, Mark4.96500
Harman, Brian4.87200
Jaeger, Stephan 4.87000
Kitayama, Kurt 4.77400
Hadwin, Adam4.57200
NeSmith, Matthew4.56500
Todd, Brendon4.46700
Reavie, Chez4.36200
Buckley, Hayden4.27000
Bhatia, Akshay 4.16500
Mitchell, Keith3.97600
Cole, Eric3.96900
Putnam, Andrew3.96400
Schenk, Adam3.76800
Stevens, Sam3.76500
Hoge, Tom2.87300
Gotterup, Christopher2.86200
Hojgaard, Nicolai2.77000
Hodges, Lee 2.76300
Power, Seamus2.67100
Detry,Thomas 2.47100
Herbert, Lucas 2.46800
Wu, Brandon 2.46600
Riley, Davis 2.16900
Wallace, Matt2.16300
Pendrith, Taylor 1.86700
Dahmen, Joel1.76400
Glover, Lucas1.76200
Hughes, Mackenzie1.66500
Shelton, Robby1.66400
Lipsky, David1.56400
Spaun, JJ1.46800
List, Luke1.46600
Stallings, Scott1.46300
Hossler, Beau1.37000
Bramlett, Joseph1.36900
Poston,  JT1.36800
Noren, Alexander1.36500
Bennett, Sam (a)1.36300
Molinari, Francesco1.36300
Lingmerth, David1.36000
Gordon, Will1.26700
Griffin, Ben1.26400
Willett, Danny1.26300
Montgomery, Taylor1.17200
Ryder, Sam0.96300
Higgo, Garrick0.86700
Ramey, Chad0.86400
Cink, Stewart0.76300
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)0.66600
Daffue, MJ0.66200
Thompson, Davis 0.66100
Dufner, Jason0.56000
Kisner, Kevin0.46100
Hardy, Nick0.36400
Snedeker, Brandt0.36200
Taylor, Ben0.36200
Griffin, Lanto0.36100
Micheluzzi, David0.36100
Lower, Justin0.36100
Malnati, Peter0.36100
Lawrence, Thriston0.36000
Long, Adam0.26200
Mullinax, Trey0.26100
Merritt, Troy0.26100
Johnson, Zack0.16200
Frittelli, Dylan0.16100
Potgieter, Aldrich (a)0.16000
Hoag, Bo0.16000
Echavarria, Nico0.06000
Donald, Luke0.06000
Higa, Kazuki0.06000
Choi, KJ0.06000
McGirt, William0.06000

These figures for The Memorial DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 17:23 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My Memorial Top Plays

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: Bradley

Low Tier: Mitchell

Out in Left Play: Fox

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Si Woo Kim

FR Leader: Hojgaard (Contrarian)

What to Watch

For the best intel in the DFS market it’s the BETTOR Golf Podcast available on Spotify, Apple and other channels. This means you get the top % plays on H2H betting, top 40, top 20, top10. Let betting experts Stix and Spencer give you THE plays that offer the most percentage and edge for your hard earned money. They also have cutting edge plays for DFS each week with proven analysis. No one works harder or puts more effort into their analysis. Spencer and Stix will bring you information you can trust each and every week. The Bettor Golf Podcast is brought to you by Win Daily Sports.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who has picked winners week after week since January. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

It’s at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. The audience is growing every week due to the pinpoint picks by the expert staff, and it’s a blast watching them pilfer each other’s picks.

The elite Win Daily Sports golf staff will stay within the salary guidelines and bring you plays and value leverage. Many Win Daily Sports players pick the same players the experts do to comfortably cash on Sunday.

Parting Shot

“The only sure rule in golf is he who has the fastest golf cart never has to play the bad lie.”

Mickey Mantle

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Charles Schwab

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Charles Schwab DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. Longevity is fleeting in this modern age. That’s not the case at Colonial Country Club. The sponsors may have changed, but Colonial has had a PGA event every year since 1946. That’s 77 years running. Colonial has stood the test of time and awaits it’s favorite sons, Scottie and Jordan, to their own backyards in Dallas/Ft Worth. This course will test the players as the average winning score has been 10 under. The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are intended to give you the leverage, pivots and value plays to drive you to the top of the DFS contests.

The Course and it’s Horses

Colonial was the first tourney back from the Covid era. This is an invitational, so only 120 players are invited. 65 and ties make the cut so expect the 6/6 % to be higher than last week for the PGA. Last year Scottie lost in a playoff to Sam Burns and is a heavy favorite to take the trophy this year. Jordan will be popular along with Finau, Burns, Morikawa, IM, Hovland and Rose.

Recent Results

Last week our frisky biscuit made the cut and brought good value. Our left field picks in the last two weeks have finished 5th and 40th. This brings our overall record to 43-12. Our record since the Sentry in January is 23-6.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “WINBIG” for a FREE week to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s only 5.99 a week. If you’re tired of losing money or just breaking even in DFS, gives us a try. You’ll be glad you did.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for light winds(up to 9 MPH) through the week with possible rain Thursday morning with scattered rain throughout the day. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The Charles Schwab DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie34.711500
Hovland, Viktor22.310600
Spieth, Jordan20.99900
Rose, Justin19.49300
Morikawa, Collin19.310400
Fleetwood, Tommy18.99200
Finau, Tony17.410700
Im, Sungjae16.89500
Fowler, Rickie15.28900
Davis, Cameron14.68600
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan14.57700
Henley, Russell12.88800
Buckley, Hayden12.87300
Cole, Eric12.77200
Homa, Max12.610100
Todd, Brendon12.57800
McCarthy, Denny12.48700
Grillo, Emiliano12.37700
Jaeger, Stephan 10.98100
Burns, Sam10.39700
Kirk, Chris10.29100
Putnam, Andrew10.17100
Kim, Si Woo8.59000
Harman, Brian8.48200
Martin, Ben8.46800
Young, Carson8.36300
Taylor, Nick7.97200
Moore, Taylor7.48000
Kitayama, Kurt 7.27900
Palmer, Ryan7.17200
Poston,  JT6.97200
Hossler, Beau6.77300
Reavie, Chez6.76900
English, Harris6.67800
Straka, Sepp6.67000
Riley, Davis 6.47400
Lee, KH6.38300
NeSmith, Matthew5.97100
Smalley, Alex 5.87600
Rodgers, Patrick5.87500
Eckroat, Austin 5.36700
Lashley, Nate5.26900
Bhatia, Akshay 5.16700
Hubbard, Mark4.96600
Hoge, Tom4.88500
Stevens, Sam4.67100
Rai, Aaron4.57000
Suh, Justin 4.27100
Horschel, Billy3.97400
Wu, Dylan3.96600
Norrman, Vincent3.87000
Fox, Ryan3.77500
Lee, Min Woo3.68400
Spaun, JJ3.67600
Bramlett, Joseph3.67100
Herbert, Lucas 3.37500
An, Byeong3.27900
Shelton, Robby3.16400
Detry,Thomas 2.97400
Stallings, Scott2.96900
Griffin, Ben2.86800
Walker, Jimmy2.76500
Lingmerth, David2.66200
Duncan, Tyler2.66200
Johnson, Zack2.56200
McNealy, Maverick2.47300
Dahmen, Joel2.37000
Kim, Michael2.36700
Hodges, Lee 2.26600
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.17200
Noren, Alexander2.16800
Piercy, Scott2.06400
Long, Adam2.06300
Ryder, Sam1.96500
Gordon, Will1.87000
Lipsky, David1.76200
Novak, Andrew1.66400
Knox, Russell1.66100
Kizzire, Patton1.56500
Streelman, Kevin1.56500
Kisner, Kevin1.46100
Ramey, Chad1.46300
Tarren, Callum1.46200
Block, Michael1.36900
Wallace, Matt1.36700
Baddeley, Aaron1.36400
Sigg, Greyson 1.36300
Van Rooyen, Erik1.36200
Schenk, Adam1.26800
Sabbatini, Rory1.16000
Champ, Cameron0.96800
Higgo, Garrick0.96600
Lower, Justin0.96100
Hardy, Nick0.86700
List, Luke0.76900
Willett, Danny0.76500
Tway, Kevin0.76300
Taylor, Ben0.76200
Blair, Zac0.76100
Hickok, Kramer0.76000
Duo, Zecheng0.66400
Coody, Pierceson 0.66300
Hall, Harry0.56300
Higgs, Harry0.46100
Norlander, Henrik0.36600
Daffue, MJ0.36500
Smotherman, Austin0.36400
Donald, Luke0.36200
Merritt, Troy0.36100
Gribble, Cody0.36000
Malnati, Peter0.26100
Hammer, Cole 0.26100
Endycott, Harrison0.26000
Werenski, Richy0.16100
Frittelli, Dylan0.16000
Schwab, Matthias 0.06100
Alexander, Tyson0.06000
Compton, Erik0.06000
Haley II, Paul0.06000
Westmoreland, Kyle0.06000

These figures for The Charles Schwab DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 17:49 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

***UPDATE*** Many lineups will start with Scheffler and Spieth in large GPP’s and leave 7150 in salary for 4 golfers. The golfers in the 7000 to 7500 range may show a higher % by lock.

My Charles Schwab Top Plays

Top Tier: S Scheffler

Mid Tier: KH Lee

Low Tier: P Rodgers

Out in Left Play: B Hossler

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Spieth

FR Leader: J J Spaun (Contrarian)

What to Watch

It’s not the better golf podcast. It’s the BETTOR Golf Podcast available on Spotify, Apple and other channels. This means you get the top % plays on H2H betting, top 40, top 20, top10. We know how much all Sportsbooks are holding, there’s practically no edge. Let betting experts Stix and Spencer give you THE plays that offer the most percentage and edge for your hard earned money. They also have cutting edge plays for DFS each week with proven analysis. No one will work harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you information you can trust each and every week.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel, who won another 150,000 this past Sunday. All his wife has to do is ask for money to go shopping and he goes to work. Congrats Joel! It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who has picked winners by the dozen since January. Also look for the surprise guest, who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

It’s at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. The audience is growing every week due to the pinpoint picks by the expert staff, and it’s a blast watching them steal each other’s picks.

The elite Win Daily Sports golf staff will stay within the salary guidelines and bring you plays and value leverage. Many Win Daily Sports players pick the players of the teams to comfortably cash on Sunday.

Parting Shot

“It’s good sportsmanship to not pick up “lost” golf balls while they are still rolling.”

Mark Twain

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Colonial Country Club provides for a narrow, positional test of golf for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks

With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I’m excited to get into this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!

As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.

Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has since this event was first held in 1946. This is an historic and prestigious event with legends such as Ben Hogan (on 5 occasions), Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer all having won here. It is no surprise then to see a strong field for a non-elevated event. The PGA Tour have actually done a commendable job with scheduling post-Majors. RBC Heritage after the Masters was an elevated event this year, this event carries sufficient history to draw stars, and the elevated Travelers Championship will be played the week after the US Open. Although I would not consider the 3M Open in the same vein, it is understandable allowing travel back from the UK after The Open Championship.

Course Analysis for our Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

What type of golfer suits Colonial Country Club? This course provides for a narrow, tree-lined test where driving accuracy is more important than power when finalising your Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Primarily, the positional nature of the golf course is a result of the trees sitting right up to the fairway edge. This requires an accurate tee shot to ensure the best angle into the green without the effect of foliage or hanging branches compromising access.

Additionally, with the relatively shorter length of the course you will see a disproportionate number of approach shots between 100-200 yards. Certainly, targeting approach buckets has its flaws. However, when the range is relatively large and the sheer number of shots is such as we see here it is worthy of considering targeting this range for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Finally, short-game and chipping will be important this week. We see a large uptick in SG: ATG as a predictive factor at Colonial Country Club. This is a combination of the positional nature compromising approach shots. Additionally, the greens play firm and are mid-size targets at an average 5,000 sq ft with plenty of bunkering.

Course Comps for Colonial Country Club

Prior form at Colonial Country Club is helpful for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks. However, it is not one of the “stickiest” in terms of course history that we see on the PGA Tour. There are several courses that can be used as a predictor to Colonial Country Club.

Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage stands out as another positional course where accuracy off the tee is imperative. It is the primary indicator for the Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Overhanging trees are also a factor at this course and the approach ranges are similar to what we will see this week.

Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open, is a factor here for similar reasons. Sea Island Resort, where the RSM Classic is held, also ticks these boxes. TPC Southwind and El Cameleon are both courses that demand accuracy off the tee. Finally, consideration to TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club should be factors for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Weather Analysis

Wind is often a factor in Texas. However, we look to be set for a calm week guiding our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Both Thursday and Friday look set for low winds in single digits, with gusts reaching a moderate 10-15mph. Winds are also less impactful here with many fairways guarded by trees lessening any effect. Certainly, in both rounds 1 and 2 it looks like the morning groups will provide the best conditions. Therefore, it is unlikely to result in any actionable weather advantage for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Do note that weather was quite a factor in last year’s tournament. Scoring was high and a single figure score of -9 was sufficient to get the job done. With less wind in the forecast this week, we suspect a return to a winning score between -14 to -17 is likely.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley
2.5pts WIN +4000 (MGM/Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +350 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +4500 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +400 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
2pts WIN +7000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +500 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 placed 1/5 odds)

Chistiaan Bezuidenhout
2.5pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +650 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +600 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Andrew Putnam
1pt WIN +12000 (Fanduel)
1pt Top 10 +800 (Draftkings)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +320 (Draftkings) or +400 (Bet365)

Matthew NeSmith
0.5pts WIN +22000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365 or Draftkings)
And
2pts Top 40 +160 (Bet365) or +140 (Draftkings)

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use the promo code WINBIG here and you’ll receive a no obligation one week FREE trial plus just $5.99 per week for access to all sports.
Includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

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PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks & Advice

Allan Fabrykant
written by Allan Fabrykant
Oak Hill host course for our PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks.

It has been a torrid start at the PGA Championship, with some of the best in the world struggling against an extremely tough course. We all expected a stern test of golf from Oak Hill. Just how tricky the course eventually played on Thursday particularly surprised many. Let’s hope for something easier for our PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks.

Perhaps nothing sums up the difficulty in predicting this week more than Sihwan Kim. Becoming somewhat of a laughing stock on the LIV Golf tour, Sihwan has finishes of 43, 45, 47, 48, and 48 in his last five starts. He has looked well out of his depth on a tour with just 48 players. He currently sits 35th this week beating the likes of Xander Schauffele, Cam Smith, and Jon Rahm.

Unfortunately, it has been a difficult start for our pre-tournament selections as well. One of the most disappointing showings came from Wyndham Clark, who for a moment at least came close to salvaging a made cut. We nearly saw a performance akin to what Clark did a few weeks ago at the Mexico Open, prior to his win for us at the Wells Fargo Championship at 75/1. Clark was 3-under through his first 10 holes. An untimely double bogey on the 2nd hole came after just finding one of the very deep fairway bunkers, where he was forced to advance the ball less than 100 yards. It effectively killed his momentum for the round.

We are now looking to Top 20s from Jaeger and Moore, as well as a Top 40 from Smalley at big odds, to salvage something from the week. Let’s aim for some redemption in these PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks.

A Small In-Play Add

Sepp Straka
0.5pts E/W +35000 (Unibet 4 places 1/5odds)
And
2.5pts Top 20 +188 (William Hill/TAB)

Certainly, Sepp Straka looks to be a straight misprice over at Unibet. This price of 350/1 is for a player who is currently in 10th place and 5 off the lead. Straka is 4th for SG: T2G and SG: OTT, 2nd for SG: APP, and 8th for driving accuracy. Also, he leads the field for greens in regulation and has only missed 5 greens all week.

He’ll need to find the putter to challenge for the lead, but I’d rather be searching for a hot flatstick than ball striking improvement. Also, with rain forecast all day Saturday, this could lend a hand to Straka in some slower greens and softer conditions. Of course, we all saw what he did at the Honda Classic in wet conditions Sunday. I’m happy to take a very small stake for an unlikely win, but mainly the plus money on a Top 20. I like him down to 250/1 for the win and 3/2 for a Top 20.

PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks

Cameron Davis over Dustin Johnson

2.5pts at +145 Unibet or +155 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)

Certainly, Dustin Johnson has leaned heavily on the putter across his first two days play. According to Data Golf, Davis has hit 10 poor shots. However, of those 7 were putts. Conversely, DJ has hit 9 poor shots. 8 of these have come from ball striking, with 4 poor drives and 4 poor approach shots. I’ll take the inflated price on Davis here, with any semblance of above average putting likely to get the job done

Taylor Moore over Pablo Larrazabal

2.5pts -140 Bet365 (Tie separate bet) or -185 Draftkings (Ties are void)

Next in our PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks is Moore over Larrazabal. Pablo Larrazabal crawled to the cut line holding on for dear life. He has only hit 7 fairways across two rounds and has been doing everything with his short-game. Additionally, Larrazabal lost a whopping -3.54 on APP in Round 2.

Moore, on the other hand, is one of the best on the PGA Tour for long irons over 200+ yards. He lost -0.68 strokes on approach in round 2. However, when you dive deeper into his figures that included losing -1.83 on Hole 1 (his 10th). That means he gained +1.15 for the remaining 17 holes. Additionally, Data Golf have Moore ranked has 33rd in the world and Larrazabal as 269th. I’m happy to take that sort of ranking disparity on.

Jon Rahm over Cameron Smith

2.5pts -175 Unibet or -185 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)

Undoubtedly, we saw a much better Rahm in Round 2, finding 14 GIR and 9/14 fairways. In contrast, Cam Smith has only found just 10 fairways all week and is relying heavily on his scrambling to keep it going. Particularly, this included a chip-in for birdie on 2, chipping to 23in away on 7th and 7in away on 17th to save par in his 2nd round.

Certainly Rahm is much longer off the tee, and I’m happy to take him here on a day that promises wet conditions with reduced roll on the fairways.

1pt Treble Davis/Rahm/Moore (Ties are void)
+505 Unibet, William Hill, or Draftkings

Summary: PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks

Sepp Straka
0.5pts E/W +35000 (Unibet 4 places 1/5odds)
And
2.5pts Top 20 +188 (William Hill/TAB)

2.5pts Cam Davis over DJ at
+145 Unibet or +155 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)

2.5pts Moore over Larrazabal
-140 Bet365 (Tie separate bet) or -185 Draftkings (Ties are void)

2.5pts Rahm over Cam Smith
-175 Unibet or -185 Draftkings (Both Ties are Void)

1pt Treble Davis/Rahm/Moore (Ties are void)
+505 Unibet, William Hill, or Draftkings

DFS Player Pool PGA Championship 3rd Round Picks

Weather: With rain predicted all day, we may see some of the best scoring all tournament on Saturday. Heaviest rain is set to fall between 10am-2pm. Winds are steady all day, mild prevailing winds but some gusts up to 15-20mph are expected. However, winds are highest in the morning and then set to drop for a window between 1-4pm before rising again into the evening.

DFS Core: Cantlay, Svensson, Davis

Top (over 8.5k, in order of preference) Cantlay, Scheffler, Rahm, Hovland, Koepka, McIlroy, Morikawa

Mid (7.3k-8.5k, in order of preference) Svensson, Davis, Lowry, Theegala, Conners, Rose, Scott, Bradley, DeChambeau

Dumpster Diving (6k-7.2k, in order of preference) Straka, NeSmith, Suh, Jaeger, Pereira, KH Lee, Pendrith, Kitayama, Buckley

Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship 3rd Round picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

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PGAPremium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the PGA Championship

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. In majors they say the cream always rises to the top. Ok. Mito Pereira was one hole short of winning the PGA last year at 300-1 odds. Phil Michelson won at 150-1 odds. Jimmy Walker won at 180-1 odds. Last year you could have had Cameron Young who was in contention all day Sunday at 80-1 odds. The cream usually rises to the top and there is always some buttermilk that shows up as well. The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are intended to give you the leverage, pivots and value plays to drive you to the top of the contests.

The Course and it’s Horses

We are at Oak Hill which was redesigned in 2019. It was done to resemble Donald Ross’ original plans for the course. He wanted to test the best players on the planet in every phase of their game. Some of the names coming up early are Scottie, Xander, Rahm, Finau, JT, Cam, Fowler, Sungjae, Clark and Cantlay.

Recent Results

Last week our frisky biscuit barely missed the cut. Our left field pick finished 5th. This brings our overall record to 42-12. Our record since the Sentry in January is 22-6.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “WINBIG” for a FREE week to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s only 5.99 a week. If you’re tired of losing money, just breaking even or not making enough in DFS, gives us a try. You won’t regret it.

Whether to trust the Weather

The weather is calling for cold temps early in the mornings and high winds on Friday most of the day. We will have updates in the Win Daily Sports discord tonight.

Projections

Lets take a look at The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONOWN %SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie28.111200
Rahm, John25.911400
Schauffele, Xander21.69900
Finau, Tony18.69500
Cantlay, Patrick18.39700
Fowler, Rickie16.17600
Hatton, Tyrrell15.98500
Im, Sungjae15.89000
Fitzpatrick, Mathew14.48400
Clark, Wyndham14.37500
Day, Jason13.58900
Johnson, Dustin13.38800
Thomas, Justin13.29400
Young, Cameron12.99200
Woodland, Gary12.67100
Koepka, Brooks12.410100
Fleetwood, Tommy12.38000
Henley, Russell11.87300
Homa, Max11.58700
Smith, Cameron11.49300
Scott,Adam10.97800
McIlroy, Rory10.810700
Hovland, Viktor10.79100
Niemann, Joaquin10.67900
Morikawa, Collin9.210300
Kim, Si Woo8.77100
Bradley, Keegan8.67700
Matsuyama, Hideki8.48600
Pereira, Mito8.47000
Gooch, Talor8.17600
Rose, Justin7.67700
Burns, Sam7.48200
Conners, Corey7.47900
Moore, Taylor7.37800
Reed, Patrick7.27600
Theegala, Sahith6.88100
McCarthy, Denny6.47400
Kirk, Chris6.37000
English, Harris6.27200
Spieth, Jordan6.19600
Buckley, Hayden5.96600
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 5.88000
Varner III, Harold5.86600
Lowry, Shane5.78300
Power, Seamus5.27000
Kucher, Matt5.16900
Mitchell, Keith4.97100
Jaeger, Stephan 4.96700
DeChambeau, Bryson4.87400
Meronk, Adrian4.86700
Hoge, Tom4.26900
Davis, Cameron3.97400
Grillo, Emiliano3.97300
Hojgaard, Nicolai3.97200
Steele, Brendan3.56600
Lee, KH3.46700
Svensson, Adam3.46600
Olesen, Thorbjorn3.46500
Taylor, Nick3.36500
Ancer, Abraham2.87500
Rodgers, Patrick2.66700
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan2.47200
Burmester, Dean2.46900
Fox, Ryan2.46500
Mickelson, Phil2.17000
MacIntyre, Robert 2.06900
Lee, Min Woo1.97200
Smith, Jordan L1.96800
Wu, Brandon 1.96700
Smalley, Alex 1.96300
Kitayama, Kurt 1.77100
Walker, Jimmy1.76300
Micheluzzi, David1.76000
Spaun, JJ1.67000
Lahiri, Anirban1.66800
Harman, Brian1.66800*
Hadwin, Adam1.56900
Schenk, Adam1.56500
Todd, Brendon1.47300
Hossler, Beau1.46900
Pieters, Thomas1.46800
Montgomery, Taylor1.37200
Wise, Aaron1.36900
Paul, Yannik1.36800
Herbert, Lucas 1.27000
Wallace, Matt1.26600
Putnam, Andrew1.26400
Detry,Thomas 1.17400
Riley, Davis 1.17100
Hojgaard, Rasmus1.16500
Hughes, Mackenzie0.96800
Hubbard, Mark0.96600
NeSmith, Matthew0.96300
Poston,  JT0.96300
Pendrith, Taylor 0.86800
Griffin, Ben0.86800
Dahmen, Joel0.86600
Horschel, Billy0.77200
Cole, Eric0.66800
Hardy, Nick0.66600
Suh, Justin 0.66500
Reavie, Chez0.66300
Ryder, Sam0.66300
Simpson, Webb0.57100
Noren, Alexander0.56700
Mullinax, Trey0.56400
Perez, Victor 0.47300
McNealy, Maverick0.46900
Harrington, Padraig0.46700
Stallings, Scott0.46700
Thompson, Davis 0.46300
Straka, Sepp0.36700
Alker, Steven0.36000
Taylor, Ben0.27000
Molinari, Francesco0.26800
Tarren, Callum0.26600
Arnaus, Adri0.26500
Willett, Danny0.16700
Johnson, Zack0.16500
Donald, Luke0.16400
Otaegui, Adrian 0.16400
Lawrence, Thriston0.16400
Hodges, Lee 0.16300
Larrazabal, Pablo0.16200
Cahill, Matt0.16200
Killeen, JJ0.16100
Droemer, Jesse0.16100
Echavarria, Nico0.16100
Shinkwin, Callum0.06600
Lingmerth, David0.06500
Kisner, Kevin0.06500
Hoshino, Rikuya0.06400
Higa, Kazuki0.06400
Kaewkanjana, Sadom0.06400
Somers, John0.06300
Yang, Y.E.0.06200
Block, Michael0.06200
Beach, Alex0.06200
French, Chris0.06200
Grove, Russell0.06200
Holmes, Steve0.06100
Kim, Sihwan0.06100
Pigman, Kenny0.06100
Kern, Ben0.06100
Cordes, Anthony0.06100
Inglis, Colin0.06100
Reynolds, Gabe0.06100
Micheel, Shaun0.06000
Speight, Josh0.06000
Koch, Greg0.06000
Sanger, Chris0.06000
Shattuck, Braden0.06000
Wells, Jeremy0.06000
Worthington II, Wyatt0.06000
Strydom, Ockie0.06000

These figures for The PGA DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 17:57 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

****UPDATES*** Jason Day announced earlier today he wouldn’t play a practice round (he hasn’t yet) and he’s never played this course. Cam Young lost a few pounds by shedding his beard. He’s also lost another 15 pounds in the last two weeks over a stomach virus. Be careful.

My PGA Top Plays

Top Tier: Finau

Mid Tier: IM

Low Tier: Neimann

Out in Left Play: Meronk

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Xander

FR Leader: Neimann (Contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, try The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you information you can trust every week.

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave, who has picked winners by the dozen since January. Also look for the surprise guest, (this week it was “Toe Taggin Tambo”) who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board.

It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

With the snake draft format it shows how the elite Win Daily Sports golf staff can stay within the salary guidelines and it brings you leverage plays and value gems. Many Win Daily Sports players do well just by picking players of the teams that are picked. This weeks teams are actually comprised of the expert board stealing each others picks, and occasionally deciding to skip the rotation. It was wild, great and loads of fun!

Parting Shot

“No one but you and your caddy care what you do out there, and if your caddy has bet AGAINST you, he doesn’t care either.”

Lee Trevino

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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PGA

PGA Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Oak Hill Country Club is sure to provide a stern test for our PGA Championship Picks
The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club underwent a significant restoration project in 2020 to prepare for this event. See how this has influenced our PGA Championship Picks below!

Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKUGPenwups&t=324s

Course Analysis

Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.

Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.

Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.

There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.

https://youtu.be/7Yr3CPafUYA
https://youtu.be/ljyFPHHmONM

Oak Hill Course Comps

Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.

Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.

For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.

Key Statistics for our PGA Championship Picks

Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.

I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.

Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.

Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.

Weather for our PGA Championship Picks

Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.

Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.

Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.

Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.

Latest weather forecasts can be found here

PGA Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)

Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)

Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)

Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
And
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)

Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
And
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)

Golfer Profiles for our PGA Championship Picks

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite

I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.

Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.

Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.

2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.

Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.

Tony Finau

Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.

Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.

Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.

Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.

Rickie Fowler

I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.

However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.

Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.

5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.

Wyndham Clark – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value

Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.

It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.

The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.

The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.

Outsiders

As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.

Taylor Moore

Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.

Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.

Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.

11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.

Stephan Jaeger

Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.

I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.

Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.

Harris English

Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.

English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.

He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.

Alex Smalley

Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.

26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.

Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.

At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.

Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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Sports BettingPGAPremium

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
TPC Craig Ranch Course Analysis, essential to our selection of our AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

It was another huge winner for this column last week, as Wyndham Clark secured a decisive victory at a huge price of 75/1. Another promising lead-in to this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Picks!

We had been on Clark for quite sometime. Notably, his approach play had increased astronomically at the beginning of 2023. His Data Golf ranking was also substantially out of sync with his World Golf Ranking. This always provides a situation where imminent correction can be expected. We had also selected Clark the week before at the Mexico Open, as had many others.

A poor first round of 73 took him out of contention and threatened a missed cut, which was due solely to a lacklustre putting display. However, he followed this with rounds of 67, 69, and 65 to fight back to 24th. His price the following week had adjusted far too dramatically as a result and we were happy to pounce on the inflated odds.

Course Analysis

Although this tournament was first established in 1944, TPC Craig Ranch has only played host for the two previous editions.

The course this year will play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. The 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a long par 4. This is a direct attempt to curb scoring, which has got a little out of control in previous tournaments. At the end of the day, although the overall score may reduce slightly, this is a relatively straightforward test for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.

One unique aspect of the course is the zoysiagrass fairways. This is relatively rare on the PGA Tour, only appearing at TPC Southwind and East Lake. This grass has been both praised and criticized by various golfers. It tends to play on the softer side, with players describing it as “if playing off a tee” as it tends to hold water better than other variants. Others have commented that the ball can come out with some extra spin and even generate some unexpected flyers. Fairways are wide and the rough is not overly penal.

Greens are large at 6,778 sq ft and a return to bentgrass greens, last seen at Augusta National. TPC Southwind also conveniently features the same grass type to further strengthen those ties for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks.

The final remark will be on the approach buckets to target. This course features a disproportionate number of approach shots over 200 yards, accounting for a third of all iron shots. Further, two thirds all strokes occur from over 150 yards.

Course Comps for AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Again, please be careful for your AT&T Byron Nelson Picks to use course history this week rather than tournament history due to only hosting the two prior events. In addition the two PGA Tour events, the course hosted the 2012 and 2008 Web.com Tour Championship tournaments. It also hosted a 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Q School second stage event.

TPC Southwind should be a key guide this week. The zoysiagrass fairways, similar approach numbers, and bentgrass greens provide a great correlation to TPC Craig Ranch. Additionally, this is host to the BMW Championship so elite performance in this strong field should translate nicely to a weaker event.

Other guidance can be found at TPC Summerlin, where low scoring and approach are key. TPC Scottsdale, another Tom Weiskopf design, also shares links to back-to-back winner K.H. Lee. Lee was runner up there prior to his first victory in 2021 and was the First Round Leader last year prior to his successful defense.

Weather for our AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Another tricky weather week is upon us. I made a prediction on this week’s PGA Draftcast that this may end up a 54 hole tournament. Particularly, the Tour will not want to intrude on the build up to next week’s major, the PGA Championship. Thunderstorms are forecast everyday, with Saturday particularly looking very patchy. Certainly, any significant delays and a truncated tournament could well be on the cards. Significantly, this opens up options for in-play betting, as outsiders towards the top of the leaderboard may be able to hold on if the tournament is shortened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXcMYDUC_Og&t=2971s

Certainly, Thursday AM looks to be the lowest winds of the tournament. Friday PM also has predictions for the lower winds for round 2, although thunderstorms are also forecast.

I believe the Thursday AM/Friday PM is where any edge will fall. However, we are hampered somewhat by that thunderstorm threat, which may flip any edge which develops. I suggest building DFS lineups as 40% Thursday AM, 20% Thursday PM, and 40% mixed with a lean towards AM tee-times.

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Suggested Staking

Scottie Scheffler – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Favourite
10pts WIN Only +400 (Draftkings/Fanduel)
or 10pts Enhanced Win Only +450 (Bet365)

Seamus Power
2pts WIN +4400 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts WIN +5000 (MGM)
2pts Top 10 +410 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2pts WIN +6600 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +550 (Fanduel)
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ryan Palmer
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +900 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +410 (Fanduel)

Matthew NeSmith – Your AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Picks Best Value
0.5pts WIN +15000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Draftkings)

DFS Core: Scheffler, Bezuidenhout, NeSmith.

Thank you reading our 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

DP World Tour Soudal Open Picks are available now in the WinDaily Discord Channel here.

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