We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12
I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.
All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.
I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.
Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds
Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.
If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.
The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.
Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL – and the run defense may very well be the best in the game – so Ryan Tannehill could be throwing the ball more than normal to move the football up the field. He’s no Lamar Jackson, so they will likely take a different approach than the Ravens did on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing (843 yards) behind Dalvin Cook and hasn’t had the same success in recent weeks – held under his usual benchmark of 100 yards in two of the last three games. While I wouldn’t categorize him as a contrarian play, he makes for an interesting pivot from Tannehill, who’s the highest priced player on both sites.
Perhaps the sharpest choice for captain this week is AJ Brown, and explosive playmaker who carries enormous upside into every matchup. He’s physical, he’s fast, and he won’t be deterred by the challenge of Indy’s stout defense. Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence in 2020, making him a solid option as well, and TE Jonnu Smith has been a feast-or famine fantasy producer this season with five TDs over his first four games and just one since (2-32-1 in Week 9 vs. CHI).
To further complicate things, Anthony Firkser has been the more productive Titans TE since Week 5. Making a captain selection is difficult because the Titans roll out a pretty balanced offensive attack, so I could see a drastic approach of playing the Titans DST at CPT on DraftKings in order to fit in all the studs.
Philip Rivers (who may get benched at some point in favor of Jacoby Brissett) gets back an important weapon in the relatively inexpensive T.Y. Hilton, who rejoins a WR corps that includes rookie Michael Pittman, the inconsistent Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson – who’s actually been targeted 19 times over the past three games.
Their RBs (rookie Jonathan Taylor, change of pack back Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins) have been a frustrating group for fantasy owners – since there’s no indication of who’s going to be the main producer. The best option is still probably Taylor, who is usually the early focal point of the running attack, but that could easily shift to Hines in a negative game script.
There’s no Jack Doyle (concussion) this week, so we can expect a few targets for Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee) and Trey Burton. Burton has more red-zone upside (with rushing TDs in consecutive games straddling the Week 7 bye), but last week we saw Alie-Cox find paydirt.
This game is going to be a grind, with both teams approaching full strength and the lack of an obvious game script – but I’m comfortable using lots of Henry/Titans DST and a smattering of Tannehill/Brown/Smith stacks with Rivers and some Indy skill players on the other side.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on the sub-$3K punts on DK – there’s plenty of productive guys from $3-9K offering excellent upside.
DO: Deploy a balanced approach for the Titans – because that’s how they roll – and mix in some of their defense as Philip Rivers has not been great this season.
DON’T: Forget about Rivers/Hilton in GPPs, however, as they could be a game-breaking combo this week if Hilton isn’t limited.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
A bizarre Week 5 NFL DFS concludes with the Bills and Titans on a rare Tuesday night contest, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Some notable injuries/COVID updates: For the Bills, rookie RB Zack Moss (toe), veteran WR John Brown (calf) and standout CB Tre’Davious White are all questionable, with Brown having the best chance of suiting up and contributing. LB Matt Milano is out. White’s absence would mean a logical upgrade for A.J., Brown (knee, questionable), who is expected to return for the Titans following three weeks off. The Titans will be without WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, who are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list along with seven other Tennessee players. The preparation, talent, health and overall football edge is overwhelmingly in the Bills favor, though the defensive unit – especially the secondary – is pretty banged up.
The obvious chalk at captain will be Bills QB Josh Allen, who leads his undefeated team into Tennessee on the heels of four straight 25+ point fantasy performances. He’s averaging an impressive 8.96 yards per pass attempt this season (second to only Jared Goff), has thrown for 1,326-12-1 in four games and has added 83 rushing yards and three TDs on the ground. I’ll gladly eat this chalk and pair him with speedy WR Stefon Diggs. Using Allen with Devin Singletary is also a possibility, since the Bills could be spending a lot of time in the Titans red zone and the Tennessee secondary is one of its strengths, with Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Johnathan Joseph and Kenny Vaccaro all healthy for this game.
My favorite pivot if you can’t afford Allen at CPT is Derrick Henry, assuming they continue to utilize him in the passing game. I could see Ryan Tannehill or A.J. Brown having a big game as well, but the Bills are missing Milano and Henry has logged 34, 27 and 29 touches in his first three games of 2020. The former Heisman winner is fully rested; the last game the Titans played was in September.
Another option for the CPT spot on DK is Jonnu Smith, sincehe could see upwards of 10 targets from Tannehill this game, and he allows you to fit in several Bills players and Henry.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Forget to check inactives before game time and be ready to pivot. It’s a pretty fluid situation these days and there are some obscure but possibly relevant Titans WRs (Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Chester Rogers and Cody Hollister) in the player pool for this showdown, especially if A.J. Brown has any kind of setback leading up to kickoff.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Sleep on Devin Singletary tonight, especially if he’s paired with the Bills defense. The Bills RB is affordable on both sites, and that’s one build where you don’t necessarily have to plug in Allen, too.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
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