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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Conclusion of PGA Tour regular season
  • Weaker field but a few big names – and a few guys looking to crack into Top 125 in FedEx Cup standings
  • The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
    • Par 70: 7,130 yards – Donald Ross design
    • Fast Bermuda greens on a shorter course that yield lots of birdies
    • Tree-lined fairways make Driving Accuracy more important than distance
    • Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
    • The best round here is a 59 (by Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), so we should expect receptive greens and low scores
    • RBC Heritage (Harbour Town) is still a good course comp (in terms of crossover success) and greens are comparable to those at Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms)
    • Other course comps include the Sea Island Resort that’s populated by scores of PGA golfers and some TPC courses – including TPC San Antonio, TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Summerlin and TPC Deere Run
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Driving Accuracy (over Distance), Par 4s Gained (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.

Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.

Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.

Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.

Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.

Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.

Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.

Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.

More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.

Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Decent top-end in a full field of 156 golfers, but not an elite group
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19
  • 2019 (and 2018) champion: Paul Casey (-8 in ’19; -10 in ’18)
  • The course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbour, FL)
    • Par 71: 7,340 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Tough track that played easier before 2015 renovations and a 2007 date change
    • Five par 3s, four par 5s
    • Tight fairways, water in play on 11 of 18 holes
    • Solid tee-to-green golf a must
    • AVOID THE SNAKE PIT (Holes 16-18 can bit you… and poison a victory with a multi-stroke swing come Sunday)
  • Some Friday afternoon wind will bump up (10-14 MPH) but weather looks great in the low 80s with no rain forecasted
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: T2G, Par 3s Gained: 200-225, SG: Short Game, Par 4s Gained: 400-450, Good Drives Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.

Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.

Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)

Mid-Range Golfers (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,200)Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.

Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.

Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.

Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.

Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)

Value Plays (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.

Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.

Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.

Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.

More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.

Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.

Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee

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We’re getting ready for some winning PGA DFS picks for the Texas Valero Open and helping you win big money this week and bloat those bankrolls!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Solid field of 144 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • No 2020 Winner, but Corey Conners won in 2019 (-20)
  • The course: TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course (Greg Norman design)
    • Par 72 (7,494 yards)
    • Wider fairways in spots but trouble off the tracks
    • Long course with ball striking and second shots at a premium
    • Par 5s are long, not guaranteed birdies
    • Scrambling will help because bad approaches will run off greens
    • Tough, Bermuda greens (overseeded with mixture)
    • Wind is always an issue in Texas but we’re in the 10-12 MPH range for most of the play this week
  • Correlative courses include Colonial CC, Silverado, Waialae CC, Bay Hill and the Pebble Beach courses
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: APP, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Driving Distance, GIR, Opps Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $11,000) – Playing a chalky Tony Finau – a guy who has burned me so many times I’ve lost count – doesn’t make me feel all that comfortable as I lead off the most expensive tier, but I don’t think I can fade this guy. Eventually I’ll get him right and there’s no discernible reason to leave him off my core builds other than bad feelings and high ownership. He’s No. 1 overall on my model, even including Dustin Johnson, who has already withdrawn from the Valero.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,700) – He loves this course and its correlated venues and with his game shaping up considerably over the past couple of months, I think he might be ready for a win. His scrambling and short game will come in especially handy this week, and it’s the most excited I’ve been to play Spieth in PGA DFS in a long, long time.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10.100) – Hideki’s ownership might be the lowest of anybody in this top tier, so that’s one reason to jump on this ball striker extraordinaire in tournaments. Putting is always an issue, but he’s so surgical with his irons (and is a good enough scrambler at No. 37 in the field) that he’ll probably be gaining enough strokes on the field to offset his typical mediocrity with the flat stick.

Corey Conners (DK $9,500) – Second overall on my model, Conners is the defending champion here and has played well recently with 7 of his last 9 finishes among the Top 20, excluding a missed cut at the Genesis and T37 at the Farmers. He’ll be a near-lock for cash games and should be considered a core play for single-entry GPPs.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Abraham Ancer

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,400) – Palmer has stepped up his PGA DFS game in 2020-21 with nine straight made cuts after missing the weekend at the U.S. Open. This week he comes in at No. 7 on my model, and his dominance of Par 5s (No. 1 in the field) should help him solve these longer-than usual examples. A fine play in all formats.

Charley Hoffman (DK $9,200) – Hoffman’s numbers at TPC San Antonio might be the best in the field, with a win and eight finishes out of 10 (all made cuts) in the Top 15. If they ever build a new clubhouse, they should fashion a gargoyle on top of the roof in his honor. Fading him could be a mistake, but I’m not sure I’m in love with his price and projected popularity in large-field GPPs.

Brendan Steele (DK $9,100) – With a made cut in every event he’s played in 2021, Steele is starting to look like a solid cash game play in addition to his dynamic role as one of my favorite GPP plays. This week he comes in at No. 14 on my model and sports solid numbers across the board in the focus stat categories. His T3 at the Honda Classic means he’s got plenty of Top 5 upside.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,600) – Kirk (who’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts) sometimes struggles to find the fairway, but that should be mitigated a bit by these larger-than-normal target areas. He’s a solid scrambler, is excellent around the greens (No. 4 in the field in SG:ARG) and has a Top 10 (2018) and Top 15 (2016) straddled by two missed cuts at this event in 2019 and 2017. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I probably won’t have him in my single-entry builds.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,300)Nick and Sia discussed Hadwin in the breakdown, and he’s clearly doing some things right around the greens lately, making six out of his last seven cuts and spiking a T8 at the Honda Classic a couple weeks ago. Nick’s model has him much higher than mine, but nobody’s model is perfect. I’m hoping it could be a good week for Canadians, as both he and Conners seem to be shaping up well for this Texas venue.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,900) – I’m a little wary of investing too much in Varner this week because he’s popped on my model before (he’s No. 10 overall this week) and when that’s happened I seem to remember him finishing poorly and only fair to middling among the other players I liked ta his price point – which is not really where we want to go in GPPs. But he’s a solid ball striker who’s fine for cash games – and my large-field GPP ownership depends largely on where the field is projected to land on him.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,800) – Chucky 3 isn’t the greatest ball-striker around, but he gets it done off the tee and has the shops to get it done around the fast Texas greens. If I had to narrow my player pool down to about 20-25 players, he’d be in there, and the price is eminently affordable for his upside.

Danny Willett (DK $7,700) – I’m not hearing too many folks lauding the prospects of Willet this week outside of out crack team at WinDaily, which makes me feel all squishy and titillated in my gamblin’ bones. The Englishman finished solo eighth last week at the Corales Puntacana, and while my model isn’t in love with him, he’s definitely a guy that shows up a few spots better at windy venues and places where there’s some green run-off and crafty approaches to finagle. Get some exposure in your large-field GPPs, as it won’t be hard to get ahead of the field.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,600) – Munoz also seems to have gone overlooked a bit this week and that’s fine with me, because he’s No. 22 on my overall model and sports no glaring weaknesses heading into this venue. His game log isn’t too exciting, but Munoz is a guy that grinds away and gives you some exciting finishes when you least expect them – like a quiet assassin waiting to pounce.

Also consider: Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, Lanto Griffin, Zach Johnson, Keegan Bradley (Cash), Sam Burns (GPP), Ryan Moore, Matt Wallace, Gary Woodland (GPP)

Value (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sepp Straka (DK $7,300) – I tend to view Straka and Higgs as almost interchangeable in DFS, and it’s almost hilarious to see where they land this week on my model and how much they align in the focus stat categories. Straka gets the nod in tournaments because he’s a lot less popular this week, but I’ll have shares of Harry as well.

Look at these two (outlined in red). Get a room, fellas!

Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – I’m fine with Glover in large-field GPPs where you have to get a little bit different, and he’s on my short list for single-entry consideration given his T14 finish here in 2019 and decent SG:APP numbers at this and correlated venues. If anything he’ll give you a wild ride.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,300) – Speaking of wild rides, McCarthy usually gets it done with elite putting and scrambling, but his ball striking has improved considerably in 2021 and he looks like he could be a decent value in this group, which if I’m being honest is pretty appealing for their upside. He, Glover, Kizzire and Laird all seem to be underpriced.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,200) – Kizzire is another player who’s made big strides in the 2020-21 season, and his normal SG:OTT woes fall under the same category as Kirk. In effect, we can consider him to be kind of a “poor man’s Kirk” this week given the disparity in pricing and odds. I like him for GPPs and he’s in consideration for my SE.

Martin Laird (DK $7,100) – Laird is 30thoverall on my model and while his game is a tad finicky for my liking, he’s three for his last three at the VTO including two top 20s. I won’t go heavy, but coming in around the 5-10%  range along with the field shouldn’t kill too many lineups if he doesn’t smash.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – NeSmith will be more popular than Laird because he’s easily more recognizable; his solid February stretch made him a profitable play at the Pebble Beach AT&T and Waste Management Open. He’s No. 39 overall on my model and while the windy Texas venue might be a problem for him, he’s a decent enough ball striker to come out okay.

Tom Lewis (DK $6,800) – Lewis is my wild card play this week, but I’ll be careful not to exceed 10% ownership in my GPPs and probably can’t get behind him in single-entry. Still – he’s a guy who can go low and could make his mark in single-day, so stay tuned.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley’s not the best scrambler around, but if he can keep his head on straight and not melt down on the Par 5s, I’ve got confidence he can place well enough this week to help your teams. Expectations should remain relatively low at this price, but Hadley could surprise this weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Erik van Rooyen, John Huh, Doug Ghim (GPP), Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Jim Furyk, Will Gordon

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – As we’ve discussed before,we should never be going all-in on this range of golfers unless there’s a glaring pricing error at play, but I don’t mind using some Dufner given the fact he’s made three out of his last four cuts and has some upside.

Bo Hoag (DK $6,400) – He’s missed the cut in his last two but Hoag offers plenty of Top 35 upside for his excellent scrambling numbers and overall finish in my model, where he’s No. 28 (just ahead of Si Woo Kim and Laird). He’s a 1/10 GPP play at most but I’ll have shares.

D.J. Trahan (DK $6,000) – Trahan is an awful putter but ranks No. 32 on my model and will find his way onto one or two of my cheap 20 max “studs-and-scrubs” lineups because…why not? At $6K if the other guys fare really well, all he needs to do is make the cut.

Additional punts: Kyle Stanley, Danny Lee (GPP), J.B. Holmes, Akshay Bhatia (GPP)

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Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks returns for the Honda Classic at PGA National to help find you some great picks and winning teams this week.

Course Notes:

  • Weaker field of 150 golfers (only three of OWGR top 20 playing)
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • 2020 winner: Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes (-5)
  • The course: PGA National (Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL; Tom Fazio design)
    • Par 71 (7,125 yards)
    • Water everywhere (again) – in play on 15 holes; just two Par 5 holes
    • Scoring is tough, so course management and making pars important
    • Larger, more receptive Bermudagrass greens
    • Wind will blow hard on Thursday, keep any eye on tee times
    • Correlative courses include TPC Sawgrass & Scottsdale, Quail Hollow
  • Already a bunch of WDs including: Doc Redman (positive COVID test) and Scott Piercy (contact tracing), Gary Woodland (contact tracing), Sam Burns (undisclosed)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring,

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Sungjae Im (DK $11,000) – Since his T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions – a no-cut event – Im hasn’t placed better than T12 at the AMEX, though he’s made every cut and hasn’t necessarily hurt you. This week, he’s the top-priced golfer in a thin field and the defending champion — but he’s probably not the best option in cash games if you’re trying to build a balanced lineup. I won’t be overweight on the field, but I’ll have a few shares in GPPs based strictly on his ability to avoid bogeys and get off the tee well. The SG:APP and SG:ARG numbers don’t give me enough confidence to go all-in, even with the shortage of “elite talent in the top tier.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,800) – On Monday, Berger was the betting favorite and recently cited a rib injury following his T9 performance at the Players. He’s supposed to do a pre-tourney press conference, so we should have a better idea of how the ribs are feeling the day before lock. For now, I’m downgrading him slightly; he actually said he was surprised he played four full rounds dealing with the issue. Joel, Michael and Sia discussed Berger on the breakdown, but the fact that he played through the injury last week – and he’s second overall on my model – makes me want to use him in GPPs if he’s good to go. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Berger has withdrawn from the Honda Classic and has been replaced by Rhein Gibson. Get him out of all your lineups and pivot to Niemann, Westwood or value. Incidentally, because the winds are going to blow so hard this week, it’s not a bad idea to leave some money on the table in a few lineups in large-field GPPs — since we could see the winning lineup not include any of the players over $9,500, and sneak a couple of serious value plays in the top 5.

Joaquin Niemann DK $10,400) – Our process of elimination is being aided by some early WDs and glaring red flags with a few of the other “elite” golfers this week, so forgive me for arriving at Joaquin Niemann chalk and feeling a bit uninspired. He’s viable in all formats, he’s sixth overall on my model and he’s 11/11 on cuts since the start of October. So what’s the downside? We’ll have to keep an eye on ownership for our GPP exposure, but I’m starting to feel like he’s one of the safer plays on the board.

Russell Henley (DK $9,800) – Henley might be the best cash game play of the top group when price, course history and model are all considered, and I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs as well, as he’s No. 1 overall on my model and his ownership might be more depressed than it would have been had he made the cut last week and had a finish higher than T11 in his last eight starts. He’s continually improve his finish in this event since 2016, and he won here in 2014. Henley will be the starting point for about 30-40 percent of my GPPs, and he’s shaping up to be an anchor on my single-entry squad.

Also consider: Lee Westwood, Adam Scott (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Shane Lowry (DK $9,200) – If the wind starts blowing and folks are having a tough time making pars, I’m all the more interested in a guy like Lowry, who’s proven to be a trustworthy golfer even when conditions are dire. He’s in good form and his history at the Honda Classic (through three tries) yielded a T21 in his last go-round. The weaker field, the difficulty of the venue and his increased confidence both here and on correlative and other Florida courses is a combination for prospective success this week.

Cameron Tringale (DK $9,100) – Tringale actually described the Champion course at PGA national himself as a “second-shot golf course” that plays tough because of the wind, the run-offs and the myriad hazards that abound. Tringale has always been decent around the greens and has his most difficulty on correlative courses getting off the tee (he ranks 131st in the field in SG: OTT when adjusted for this course and the others mentioned in the bullets). While it feels weird playing over $9K for Tringale, but he’s No. 18 in my model and if he can keep it in the fairways here, he’ll be in good shape to contend on Sunday.

Chris Kirk (DK $9,000) – In his last two events, Kirk has waited until day 4 to shoot his worst round of the tournament, which may not bode well for his confidence heading into a difficult PGA National course. If he’s anywhere near 15% or more in GPPs, I’ll steer clear, but you have to consider a guy whose ball striking has been this good lately. He’s No. 15 in my model overall and the only thing that’s really held him back form better finishes in his last few tourneys has been his putting.

Brendan Steele (DK $8,700) – This tour grinder has made seven consecutive cuts heading into the Honda this week. Aside from a MC in 2019, Steele’s course history is more than solid (8-for-9 with top 15s in four of last five; 36-hole leader before a T4 last year), and he’s popping (fourth overall) on my model this week. I’m already leaning his way in single-entry and could have big shares across the board in all formats. As a bonus, we’ve seen Steele navigate high winds well before, and Sia likes him this week too, so there are two more reasons to keep him in our builds.

Matt Wallace (DK $8,500) – Wallace is another player who plays well in these types of conditions, and he has one of those names that Sia really likes for its simplicity and understated, boring inflection. Because it doesn’t stand out like Wallace himself, we could see ownership lower than what it should be this week. For that reason, and the important detail that he’s a longshot who just barely missed the cut here last year, we don’t need high ownership to stay ahead of the field. He’s definitely getting mixed into my GPPs (20-max), but I won’t have more than 10 percent shares.

Also consider: Talor Gooch, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Keegan Bradley (GPP), Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter, Wyndham Clark (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Russell Knox, Erik van Rooyen

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

K.H. Lee (DK $7,500) – Lee missed the cut at Bay Hill and finished a ho-hum T41 last week at the Players, but I’m intrigued by the correlation between success here and at TPC Scottsdale – where he finished T2 in February. The South Korean sensation is adept at avoiding bogeys and is 25th overall in my model this week – making him a solid value play. Because of the wind, I’m looking at tee times and favoring the early Thursday times a bit, so Lee takes a bit of a hit because of that, but I’m still interested.

Luke List (DK $7,500) – He’s let me down a few times with missed cuts, but he can really get off the tee well and that usually bodes well for success at this event, where he finished solo second (between winner JT and Alex Noren) in 2018. Add to that course history another Top 10 and a couple missed cuts and underwhelming performances, and you’ve got a golfer to use in GPPs and stay a bit ahead of the field in ownership.

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – Hahn hasn’t played the Honda Classic in a while, but he’s tied with Lee Westwood for eighth overall in my model, he’s sprinkled three Top 15s in his last 10 tournaments, and his solo 10th place finish at the TPC course Waste Management gives me some confidence in his ability to do well here at this correlated PGA course in South Florida. He’ll be low-owned and makes for a prime target in GPPs.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore has played here just once, but he made the cut, and he’s finished in the Top 35 in his last two tournaments after three straight MCs to start out 2021. He’s No. 14 overall on my model this week and he’s been playing steady enough golf to spike a Top 10 or 15 finish here, which works for me in all formats.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – His proximity stats are second in the field (Vaughn Taylor is actually first and Russell Henley is third), and he’s been off a bit this year with a bunch of missed cuts mixed with a few decent performances. His putting and ARG numbers have bene bad, but if he can find a little magic on the short stuff, he could pay off handsomely in GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,000) – I really like Glover this week in GPPs given his extensive course history, but I’ve been known to go a little overboard because of the upside he offers at such a cheap price point. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Mayakoba, but there have bene some bright spots, including a 63 in round two of the Waste Management Open and some steady golf last week (in rounds 2-4) despite difficult conditions. His ability to avoid the big number could come in handy this week.

Jim Furyk (DK $6,900) – Full disclosure: I’ll probably have Furyk on way too many teams this week given the venue, the fact that he’s fifth in my model (and #1 in the field in Bogey Avoidance), and the crucial factor that less-than-driver is plenty on a lot of these Par 4s. The veteran golfer (and shoo-in 2021 HOFer) is one of the best ball strikers the game has ever known, and he’s still got it going at over 50 years of age.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley (No. 20 overall on my model) typically struggles around the greens, but he likes this putting surface and if he can avoid some of the testy run-offs and navigate the ball well T2G, I think he could be in play in GPPs. He’s in the price range where you don’t need to go overboard or even use him in single-entry, but I’m fine with 10-15% ownership in GPPs if you want some extra leverage for a high-upside guy with two Top 25s at this event.

More value golfers to consider: Patton Kizzire (GPP), Zach Johnson, Henrik Norlander (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Harry Higgs (GPP), Adam Long, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, John Huh (GPP), Wes Bryan, Charl Schwartzel, Jason Dufner

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Pat Perez (DK $6,500) – It’s easy to root for Perez, who’s No. 10 on my overall model this week but missed the cut last week after 77-69 in the opening two rounds. I’m focused on the 69 – especially since the last two times he missed the cut he bounced back with a finish in the top 36. That’s not a bad trend for a golfer in this price range, and a guy who doesn’t make a lot of big numbers and has the game to put together some low rounds.

Kramer Hickok (DK $6,400) – He performed well in high winds at the Bermuda, and he made the cut last week at the Players after getting in as an alternate with Brooks Koepka’s withdrawal. He’s No. 59 overall on my model, but he’s got some Top 25 upside this week if you need a cheap golfer to mix into 1-2 of your 20max GPPs.

UPDATE: Kramer Hickok has withdrawn his name from the field, and will be replaced by Brandon Hagy, who I have no interest in. Hickok did not cite a reason for his WD.

Kelly Kraft (DK $6,000) – Normally I don’t include players this far down in my model (he’s No. 124 this week), but Kraft finished T8 here in 2018 and he’s known for being a better player in high winds, which could come into play right off the bat this week. He’s a 1/20 max play, but he’s minimum salary and if your five golfers in a GPP build gets you there and you need a guy that’s $6K, I’d pick Kraft.

Additional punts: Stewart Cink, Vaughn Taylor (GPP), Scott Stallings, Sam Ryder, Graeme McDowell, Tyler Duncan (GPP), Chase Seifert (GPP)

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We’re hot on the trail of some lucrative PGA DFS picks, looking for a big payday at the Genesis Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced, elite invitational field of 120 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Adam Scott (-11)
  • The course: Riviera Country Club (Pacific Palisades, CA)
    • Par 71, 7,300+ yards
    • Redesigned by Tom Fazio in 2008
    • Hard-to-hit fairways and greens, but everybody knows what to expect here
    • Kikuyu fairways and rough can make for tough sledding in bad lies
    • Old, quirky design with doglegs and a driveable but difficult 315-yard Par 4 (Hole #10)
    • FAST Poa annua greens – three putts will abound
  • Sunny but cool weather (course will play longer in the mornings) this week
  • Wind expected around 7-10 MPH first two days, then blowing a bit harder
  • Recent (West Coast) form an important factor at Riviera
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – DJ has a solid course history (he ran away with the event in 2017 with a -17 score, five strokes clear of Thomas Pieters) and he is the betting favorite with ownership expected around 15-20 percent. One way to approach that in GPPs is by doubling the expected field ownership – a strategy I used last week with Patrick Cantlay.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Thomas won’t be as popular as usual this week in GPPs, but he’s second in my model and he almost won here in 2019 – choking away his shot at victory with a four-over-par 75 in the final round. JT actually missed the cut here last season, so there are some bad vibes he’d like to exorcise. I’ll definitely have shares, but he’s almost a contrarian play this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory debuted at the Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale with a somewhat disappointing T13 and has nine consecutive top 25s. The troublesome part is that his last win came in November 2019 at the WGC-HSBC, so he’s a risky play at this price point. Perhaps his consecutive Top 5 finishes at Riviera and ability to both avoid bogeys and gain strokes off the tee (tops in the field in both categories) will allow for a breakthrough win.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahmbo drives it well, is a maestro on and around the green, and has been less affected by bad breaks as he matures. Let’s remember – the Spaniard is still just 26 years old, a fact that makes his failure to notch more than one Top 5 (T2 at the ZOZO in October) since September a bit more palatable. What he does have is six straight Top 15 finishes since his T23 at the U.S. Open, and the ability to win at just about any event.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,100) – If there’s a course that favors Bryson the Beefy Big Boy, his aggressive lines, bomb-and-gouge style and arm-lock putting style, it’s Riviera – because he’s still pretty decent around the greens and the ultra-fast Poa Annua could favor his ability to get the ball on the right line. He may not be the best cash game play because he’s still pretty volatile and he can let a few bogeys and bad shots get the better of him but taking a stand with him at 30-40% in GPPs could really pay off this week.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,900) – Schauffele (No. 10 on my mixed model)  arrives with consecutive T2 finishes at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale and is a California kid playing in an event that favors high-performing West Coast swing golfers. He’s a near lock for cash games and single-entry tournaments and I’ll have plenty of shares (shooting for around 25-30 percent to stay ahead of the field) in large field GPPs.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay (Cash), Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – Finau could almost be a better cash game play than GPP this week, because he’s a great course fit who has made three straight cuts at Riviera – including a T2 in 2018 – and he usually sucks in the final round. We know he can burn us, but he’s No. 8 on my model because of his strength T2G, only lacking in the short game components and closing the deal on Sundays.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000) – The Aussie is a relatively safe play in all formats and I won’t talk you off including his in single entry – but he’s struggled to finish in the Top 10 (his T10 at Torrey Pines is his first since his two-shot victory here last year in a similarly strong field. That win came after a furious comeback that saw his make up eight shots over the last three rounds. Scott likes it here – he has six top 10s in 12 starts and is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader, according to PGATour.com.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – Bubba is a course horse and a great narrative this week (go read the recent PGA Tour article about his struggles with mental illness), so I’m grabbing a few shares in GPPs and hopefully coming in around the field number. He’s a “self-taught, highly visual” player (and No. 25 on my model) who has won here twice despite his volatility and tendency to make a few bogeys.

Max Homa (DK $8,200) – Homa’s game is really rounding into form (five straight made cuts after his MC at the Masters) and he’s starting to seem more comfortable on the leaderboard – something that could come in handy in this tough field. My model isn’t in love with him (his T2G and ARG game don’t crack the Top 100), but he’s a local resident who finished T7 at Pebble Beach last week and notched a personal-best T5 at Riviera last year, so I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he might make my single-entry GPP when it’s all said and done.

Kevin Na (DK $7,900) – Na is the prototypical GPP play this week on a course where he’s had lots of success (T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017) and a few dismal outcomes (MCs in 2015 and 2020). His Top 5 upside makes him a superb tournament option at this price point, and his 2021 form (a win at the Sony Open in January and a T21 in his last start in a EURO event at the Saudi International, keeps my confidence high enough to roster him in this tough field.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,800) – I know that his high ownership is going to scare folks off – Joel and Sia both talked about it in the breakdown video, but I still like his chance at a  Top 10 here and might just try to outpace the field by locking him into a third of my large-field GPP lineups. Just be conscious of his ownership this week and know that everyone (and their mothers) will be on him.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – Joel brought up my bae Fitzy in the breakdown, and while the wispy Englishman is not popping on my model and he hasn’t played the West Coast swing, there’s plenty to like about his short game and what he could do at a second try at Riviera (T30 in his debut last year). He’s not a long hitter, but he likes super-fast greens and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys – which could keep him in contention if he can avoid the one bad round that sometimes plagues him.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Tringale

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

James Hahn (DK $7,500) – Hahn checks a few boxes this week, from his West Coast form to his excellent course history at Riviera and inclusion in the Top 50 of my model. As long as ownership doesn’t eclipse 10%, he’ll make about 1/5 (or more) of my GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $7,400) – A big hitter with the tee ball game and lots of scoring upside, Burns is a dynamic player who’s fared well on the West Coast and hasn’t missed a cut since a disappointing performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. If he can scramble a little better than usual this week, he could contend.

Luke List (DK $7,300) – Both Sia and I are drawn to List and his dynamic game, and he’s shown an affinity for this venue despite some periodic struggles where good golf seems to somehow allude him. The long-hitting tour veteran has made four of his last five cuts here highlighted by three straight top 30 finishes, and he’s No. 23 on my mixed model – good enough to make a handful of my 20 max lineups and one or two large-field GPPs like the one on DK that pays $300K to the winner.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,200) – His last Top 10 was a T2 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, and the rest of his record here is pretty impressive. But last year’s finish came after a T16 at the Waste Management and T38 at Pebble Beach, so there was some form to consider. I can’t possibly recommend enormous shares of Kuchar this week, but he’s an elite scrambler and he could make for a decent fit in a lineup where you’re rostering DJ, DeChambeau and a bunch of guys around $7K.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,100) – K.H. has a great track record at Riviera and is somehow staying under the radar and 10% ownership despite a T2 at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago – a tournament where he made just five bogeys in four days. There’s reasonable Top 10 upside this week despite the affordable price, and he’s got a good shot at making my big-money (for me) single-entry GPP team.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The WinDaily golf writer group text discussion kicked off this week with some Reavie talk, and I was immediately intrigued. This may be the precise moment to jump on him and ride him for a few events, because it’s all about timing with a low-owned Chez – who can have stretches of solid play and is coming off a T16 at Pebble Beach. The season stats are somewhat unimpressive, but he’s an excellent ball striker who’s had two top 10s in his last five tries at Riviera – two of the other three being missed cuts. Last year’s T10 here was on the heels of a T25 finish at the AT&T, and he just cracks the Top 50 of my model this week.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900) – Sia loves him for one good round, and Joel loves him for his sexy first name, but Dahmen’s game is pretty solid all-round and he’s finished T5 here last year, which was tied for his best finish of 2020 (the other being a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I won’t have big shares, but 10 percent of my GPPs will keep me way ahead of the field and allow for some leverage if he puts together three good rounds and posts a Top 25.

Michael Thompson (DL $6,700) – Thompson did have a MC at the Waste Management sandwiched between a T5 at the AMEX and a solid-enough T34 at Pebble Beach last week, but he’s a solid value play in a price range that usually doesn’t feature much Top 10 upside – which Thompson flashed at this very event with a T7 in 2019. The model isn’t farting out roses when it comes to Mr. T, but there’s a case to be made for his low-owned keister in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Talor Gooch (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Matthew NeSmith, Charles Howell (Cash), Harold Varner III, Brandon Grace (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Scott Piercy

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – Kang has been bad in 2021, but he wasn’t exceptional in 2020 when he posted a T2 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a super high risk play only suited for 1/20 studs-and-scrubs GPPs, but that’s right around where his ownership will be because of he hasn’t missed a cut here.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – Stuard is my favorite play under $6,500, and that’s mainly because he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 25 last year, his form is decent (made cut in Phoenix and T16 at Pebble Beach last week) and he’s really good around the greens. He’s probably not gaining many strokes off the tee this week, but the T2G numbers are okay and he’s super cheap.

Pat Perez (DK $6,400) – Perez has had a rough 2021 but he’s trending up with a T26 last week and there’s plenty of correlation between Pebble and Riviera to weigh that more heavily than the four straight missed cuts in October-November. Conversely, he’s MADE four straight cuts in the Genesis and should fly under the radar this week.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,300) – I think Hubbard is mispriced at just $6,300 this week, because he’s very strong out of the gate (with opening rounds of 63 and 66 in his last two events) and has made seven of his last nine cuts. Perhaps he’s best used in first-round lineups or as a prop bet for low round of day, but I’m going to mix him into my GPPs. He hasn’t played here since 2017 but snuck under the cutline in his only two attempts.

Additional punt options: J.B. Holmes (GPP), Jim Furyk, Denny McCarthy (GPP), C.T. Pan, Jimmy Walker (GPP)

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Field of 132 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • The courses: TPC Scottsdale
    • Par 71 – 7,261 yards
    • Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
    • Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
    • Fast Bermuda greens
  • 6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker field of 132 golfers, but JT and Koepka are here!
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
  • The course: El Camaleon Golf Club (Playa del Carmen, Mexico)
    • Par 71 (approx. 7,100 yards)
    • Resort course with combined landscapes: Mangrove jungles, limestone canals and oceanfront
    • Seashore Paspalum greens and fairways
    • Plenty of scoring chances for good approaches
    • Shorter, more accurate hitters could have success
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, Fairways Gained, GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,400) – He’s going to be hard to fade in GPPs, but that may be the way to get some leverage. In lineups where I fade him, I’ll grab some shares of Brooks Koepka.

Harris English (DK $10,100) – English is viable in all formats and I’ll run a few lineups with just him among the top tier and go balanced the rest of the way with in the $7-9K range. If I don’t do that with him, I’ll try the same with Hovland or Fowler.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,900) – The price is obscene, especially for a guy that doesn’t post a lot of Top 5 finishes, but he’s one of the best players in the field and he’s had a pretty good year. The Mexico native has also made three straight cuts here with two Top 10s.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,500) – He’s rocking three Top 15s among his last four tournaments, and the price is reasonable for the field. He’s got a chance at winning here after missed cuts in his first two tries at the Mayakoba.  

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Rickie Fowler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,200) – Zalatoris didn’t tee it up in November, but he had three top 10s in his first four starts this season and an amazing 13 top 20 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year. The 35-1 odds to win aren’t bad for an outright bet, either.

Corey Conners (DK $9,000) – The Canadian is threatening to join the Top 50 in the world, and despite some spotty finishes here, he’s a horse for this course – as everything should line up for him to break through. If you’re looking for a 25-1 guy to back, Conners might be your guy.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,900) – Ortiz will be super popular this week, because he’s playing in his native Mexico (like Ancer), he just won in Houston despite a relatively inconsistent 2020, and he finished second here last year. He’s not my favorite play in GPPs if his ownership gets over 15%, but I’ll have some shares.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Grillo’s ball striking T2G is excellent, and he’s a much better putter these days as well – a combo that makes me want to jump aboard again at this all-too-fair price in the mid-range. Add in that he’s 4-for-4 with three top 15s – and a ridiculous scoring average of 68.13 at Mayakoba – and he’s one of my favorite plays (and bets at 60-1) to win.

Charles Howell (DK $8,100) – Howell’s days of routine Top 10 finishes may be over, but he’s had success at the Mayakoba and his T3 at the 3M shows he can still get it done T2G. Not my favorite play, but steady enough to warrant usage in a few GPPs.  

Joel Dahmen (DK $8,000) – Dahmen seems to thrive on resort courses and posted a 61 in day two the RSM Classic (on the Seaside course), so he’s very capable of firing some low rounds. If he can keep it on the fairway, he can dial in a Top 15 finish.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,000) – Kizzire has been building on some serious momentum, and when he’s hitting fairways, he’s a dangerous golfer. He’s won here, he’s trending in the right direction and I love him at this relatively benign price point. Some experts actually like him to win this week, so he’ll be in most of my GPP builds, including single-entry.

Adam Long (DK $7,800) – Perhaps incongruously with his last name, Long isn’t a bomber, but he’s a prototypical second shot golfer with plenty of firepower in his iron play and a putter that can get things done. The T11 in Houston could give him some confidence heading into the last PGA calendar event of 2020.

Also consider: Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Todd, Alex Noren, Harold Varner (GPP), Scott Piercy, Russell Knox, Chez Reavie (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

John Huh (DK $7,400) – Huh won here in 2012 and has made the cut in all three of his events since returning from the COVID-19 layoff. The second-shot golfer finished T12 at the RSM after a sizzling weekend that saw him post 66-65, and his good memories at Mayakoba should make him a solid play this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,400) – A 24-year-old birdie maker who may not have the chops to win just yet, Ghim is certainly ready to start cracking some Top 10s and capitalizing on the low individual rounds that have helped him to two Top 15s in his last four starts.

Peter Malnati (DK $7,300) – He’s a GPP-only player because he hasn’t played well at this venue recently, but he’s got Top 25 upside and the game to succeed if he can keep making those birdies.

Pat Perez (DK $7,300) – The course history (three tops tens – including a win in 2016 – in his last four years here) is hard to ignore, but so is the form, which hasn’t been great. I like Perez this week for GPPs, though he’s ultimately a somewhat risky play for cash, even at a discount.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – I’m going back to the well (which ran dry for me at both the Masters and RSM) and hoping Hadwin can finally spike a top finish at a second-shot course that he likes (two T10 finishes in his last two tries).

More value golfers to consider: Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman (GPP), Denny McCarthy, Kyle Stanley, Vaughn Taylor, Brice Garnett, Max Homa (GPP), Xinjun Zhang (GPP), Robby Shelton (GPP), Ryan Armour

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I’m drawn to Burgoon because he finished T2 at the RSM and he’s made the cut in two of his three starts here at El Camaleon. He’s a GPP-only play but form and venue mean I’ll have some shares if I need a cheap golfer to fill out a tourney lineup.

Camron Percy (DK $6,400) – Percy digs tropical resort venues and he’s a solid performer on approach shots, so this price probably reflects his recent MC at the RSM, not necessarily his projected finish here. Take advantage, because there’s not a lot to look at under $6,500 this week.

Additional punts: Sung Kang, Rob Oppenheim, Kelly Kraft, Aaron Baddeley

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the RSM Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Stronger field than normal for this venue, 156 golfers total
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Tyler Duncan (-19: Beat Webb Simpson in playoff)
  • The course: Sea Island Golf Club (St. Simons island, GA)
  • Seaside: Par 70 (7,005 yards); Plantation: Par 72 (7,060)
  • Lots of scoring – rough isn’t penal and winners post low scores
  • Bermuda greens on resort-style courses
  • Rotation: one round at Plantation and the other at Seaside course
  • “Sea Island Mafia” golfers tend to fare well on their home course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Ball-Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.

Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.

More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.

Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Vivint Houston open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Lanto Griffin (-14 at different venue: Golf Club of Houston)
  • The course: Memorial Park GC (Houston, TX – Tom Doak redesign)
    • Par 72: 7,432 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Brooks Koepka helped with redesign as PGA player consultant
    • Parkland – grass slopes and contours make it similar to Augusta
    • Second-shot course favoring accuracy/proximity
    • Five Par 5s, Five Par 3s
    • No course history
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – If we’re taking a bombers and birdie-makers approach this week (SG:OTT and BoB% are two of our focus stats), we’ve got to like DJ in this prep for Augusta even though his game has been a bit unpredictable the past year. He’s the field favorite and a guy who can separate himself quickly from the field – in either direction.

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – The course layout and design sets up well for a player like Finau, who’s been pretty consistent as a Top 10-type golfer but has lacked the ability to close. This could be the week he finally breaks through with another PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,800) – Any course with this many Par 5s should benefit Hovland, who’s excellent off the tee and seems to have worked out some of his late-summer struggles. He also provides a modest discount from the top few golfers.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – The Texas native’s stats off the tee and overall ball-striking have been elite this season, so most of how he finishes depends on his putter. There’s not a course he can’t manage, but the price among the top tier of golfers could keep some folks away – making him a solid GPP play.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – Another golfer with the game to flourish on this course, Im excels on Bermuda surfaces and is the ultimate grinder. If he can make some birdies this week and build some early momentum, he’ll be hard to keep out of the Top 15.

Adam Scott (DK $9,100) – Normally I’d consider Scott a better play in cash games and single-entry GPPs, but he’s making his return from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and is more of a risk to miss the cut than usual.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,600) – I’m always surprised how well Zach Johnson fares on longer courses, and this week is another such venue. There may be better value plays out there, but Johnson’s upside and cut-making consistency are undeniable.

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – Harman projects similarly to ZJ in this price range and has venue been more consistent this season, with eight straight finishes among the Top 40 and a neverending slew of made cuts. He makes for a fine cash game play.

Cameron Davis (DK $8,100) – Consider Davis a poor man’s Dustin Johnson, as he make a ton of birdies and can move the ball off the peg with the best of them. There’s oodles of value in Davis this week, though I imagine he’ll get popular at right around $8K.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,800) – Westwood has resurrected his career with some remarkably steady play this season on the European tour, and he finished T13 at the U.S. Open. I could see Westwood playing well the next couple weeks and smashing value at this bargain price.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,700) – Last week’s playoff loss to Brian Gay may haunt him, but Clark is a dynamic golfer who is playing well and fits the profile for this course. Now’s the time to stay aboard the ship – though we know it can go bad quickly for Wyndham and his bomb-and-gouge approach.

Also consider:  Russell Henley (cash), Jason Day (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, James Hahn (GPP), Stewart Cink, Denny McCarthy (GPP), Erik Van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – Continuing with our theme of bombers and birdie-makers, I present the inimitable Sam Burns, who misses a cut once in a while but has Top 10 upside on a course like this. A worthwhile GPP play at a bargain price.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,400) – Speaking of cuts, we’ve seen Wise miss the weekend five times over his last nine tournaments, so I can’t advocate for him in cash games and might steer clear in single-entry. But if he can get in the Top 65 by Friday night, he’s a solid GPP option with Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $7,100) – Schenk is a consistent player tee-to-green who makes for a fine cash game play at just $7,100, but he may be worth considering in all formats on a course that rewards his strength stats – SG on Par 5s and BoB%.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,000) – The price for Straka this week is just way too low given how well he’s capable of playing. The scoring opportunities should be there this week for the Austrian, who can get red hot with the putter.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – NeSmith is another guy who can go low when the putter catches fire, but the price reflects his inconsistent play. With three straight made cuts and an October Top 10 at the Shriners (T8), he’s on my radar this week.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – Looking for “birdies in bunches” this week could lead you to consider McNealy, who excels on Bermuda. I’ll have shares in GPPs.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – I’ve had a hard time handicapping Homa this season, but he’s got the tee game to compete in this field and the price is way too low given his GPP upside.

More value golfers to consider: Keegan Bradley (GPP), Luke List, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Austin Cook (GPP), Tom Hoge, Charles Schwartzel (GPP), Troy Merritt (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Xinjun Zhang (DK $6,500) – He’s disappointed in his past two events, but Xinjun Zhang played well in Houston last season (T4), and the cheap price could make him a solid play despite the different venue.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,400) –Kizzire struggles with accuracy off the tee, but he’s a solid putter who could easily make value if he can hit some fairways this week. I’ll take a shot in a few large-field GPPs.

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,200) – I know Keith Mitchell is bad, but he’s usually pretty good off the tee (the last few tourneys notwithstanding) and he can putt. For damn near minimum salary we can use him in some “studs and scrubs” GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Hudson Swafford (GPP), Justin Harding, Will Gordon, John Huh, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

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