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Dak Prescott

DFS: Final Injury Report

5 years ago

written by

We’ve arrived to the final “normal” week of the regular season. It will be normal in terms of starters who are expected to play and contribute. Week 17 will bring a whole new host of opportunities to cash due to second-teamers running the show, but this week I’ll discuss the injuries that will affect us this Saturday through Monday. Note that all of the following prices are from DraftKings. Let’s get into the DFS: Final Injury Report

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Dalvin Cook ($8,100)

In Week 16 it seems that Cook dislocated his shoulder. My tweet below will give a better description of what happened. The bottom line is that when this happens damage occurs to the labrum, which helps to hold the shoulder joint in place. Cook has damaged his labrum twice before so this is not a new injury, which counter-intuitively is an advantage. When a person has this kind of recurring instability issue, most of the damage is done after the first dislocation.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1206356906325037056?s=20

In fact, a study in 2018 found that 92% of NFL players who had a shoulder instability injury (subluxation or dislocation) were able to return that same season. Players who had a subluxation (i.e. shoulder dislocated partially but went back on its own) returned to play at a median at zero weeks. This means they didn’t miss any time. The players who had a complete dislocation (required some pushing and pulling to put back) were able to play at a median of three weeks. This means half of them came back before three weeks and half of them came back after three weeks. The downside? Almost half of these players (47%) re-injured the shoulder once they returned.

The question is this: will the Vikings put Cook out there knowing he’s at a major risk for a recurrence that will almost certainly land him on the IR? They can either risk-it-for-the-biscuit for a shot at clinching a playoff spot or allow Cook to heal up for a few weeks before the playoffs begin. A classic case of what “should” a team do versus what *will* a team do? Check back with me for updates on Cook’s practice report but even if he’s active I cannot imagine using Cook in cash games or tournaments due to his volatility.

Alexander Mattison ($5,400)

Next on DFS: Final Injury Report Mattison’s last carry in Week 14 happened with 2:08 left in the 4th quarter. He took a handoff to the right and was tackled with both his ankles in an awkward position. Although this is admittedly speculation, my hypotheses are this:

Eversion ankle sprain to his right ankle and lateral “low” ankle sprain to the left.
High ankle sprain to the right and lateral “low” ankle sprain to the left.
Isolated lateral ankle sprain to the left.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1207109532280852480?s=20

If all Mattison did was pick up a low ankle sprain to his left ankle, he could return to play this week with minimal concerns (relative to the other two types of injuries) so long as he gets in at least one full practice by Saturday. Even if Mattison is active without Cook, I’m not confident he’ll dominate the snaps and be healthy enough to produce with Mike Boone ($,900) chomping at the bit. The Vikings have shown they have no issues spreading the snaps around.

So what does this all mean? I’m only confident in using one Vikings running back under one specific set of circumstances: Mike Boone is both Mattison and Cook are active. Otherwise, the entire backfield is a fade in cash and tournaments

Update: There’s nothing new to report on the Vikings backfield other than confirmation of what was projected earlier this week: Alexander Mattison has a high ankle sprain, Dalvin Cook needs time off, and Mike Boone is a smash play and money saver this week. Obviously he’ll be big time chalk, so try sneaking in Ameer Abdullah into a few tournament lineups.

Dak Prescott ($6,400)

Prescott is dealing with finger sprains, a wrist sprain, and now apparently a shoulder issue. The Cowboys reported his MRI is “clean” but as we know from a year of injury reports from me, the MRI correlates very poorly with how an athlete feels. He could be in significant pain. Given the set of circumstances working against Dak with all of his injuries to the throwing shoulder, he’s a cash game fade for me. There’s no reason to take on the risk of re-injury to the shoulder this week. To make matters worse, Dak actually sat out of practice today while Cooper Rush took first-team reps. So, even if Dak is active, pivot to Carson Wentz ($5,800) in tournaments who has had no choice but to shoulder the offensive load for the Eagles in a crucial game to determine the NFC ~~Least~~ East.

Update: Dak was not listed on the final injury report but make no mistake about it, he’s injured. The A.C. joint injury he sustained takes at least a week to partially heal. There’s no plausible way he is 100% considering he missed an entire week of practice for the first time in his career. He is not a cash game play this week.

D.J. Chark ($6,300)

After rolling away(literally) from Week 14 in a walking boot and a scooter, it seems Chark has risen from the dead and is not running routes and cutting hard without restrictions. This is a head-scratcher to me as usual, a rolling scooter is a sign of the IR for players. Whatever the case may be monitoring his practice reports and only use him in cash if he can get in a full practice before Sunday.

Josh Jacobs ($6,700)

Last week I didn’t expect Jacobs to be active but he indeed was and took on a full workload. The result was that against a bottom two rushing defense and bottom five passing defense Jacobs totaled just 89 rushing yards on 24 attempts and two receptions for 20 yards. Now that he’s been officially ruled out for Week 16, it’s evident that I was a week early on Jacobs (read my breakdown on him from Week 15).

DeAndre Washington ($4,000) will be the chalk so, consider a pivot to Keenan Allen ($6,300) against these pathetic Raiders linebackers who won’t be able to slow him down out of the slot.

Update: Jacobs was officially ruled out early in the week, and Jalen Richard is a tournament play in a game the Raiders are seven point dogs in.

JuJu Smith Schuster

JuJu was finally a full participant in practice with no setbacks this week, which is only slightly encouraging given the long road he’s had since a presumed MCL/meniscus issue dating back to Week 11. You can fire him up in tournaments as a contrarian play.

Joe Mixon

Mixon had a setback early in the week with a calf issue as he went from full practice on Wednesday, to partial on Thursday and back to full on Friday. This calf issue is only mildly concerning and theoretically shouldn’t affect Mixon’s production. Just keep in mind the achilles is always at risk here but it appears he’s doing just fine.

Thanks for reading DFS: Final Injury Report. Check back later in the week with me for definitive injury fades/plays.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

10/1 Podcast: Week 5 QB Picks and Waiver Wire

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/1 Podcast features Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis looking back at an odd Week 4 of quarterback play and an early outlook on Week 5. The two also discuss the names to grab on the waiver wire.

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Fantasy Football Podcast: Why Jameis Winston is a Cash Game Play and why its time to bail on Dak Prescott

The 10/1 Podcast answers what does Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers have in common that could hurt their DFS totals? Is Week 5 an opportunity to go all-in on lesser passers like Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph?

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 4 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.

As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.

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Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Phillip Rivers, LAC at MIA

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.

This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. CAR

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%

Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.

3) Dak Prescott, DAL at NO (Sunday Night)

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,400)

Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.

3) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. OAK

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.

Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.

4) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.

The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.

The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Patrick Mahomes, KC at DET

DK ($7,500), FD ($8,400)

News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.

2) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.

3) Tom Brady, NE at BUF

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.

4) Jared Goff, LAR vs. TB

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.

5) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. PHI (Thursday Night)

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,700)

The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.

6) Carson Wentz, PHI at GB (Thursday Night)

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.

7) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,900)

The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.

8) Jameis Winston, TB @ LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.

Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…

9) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.

Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at BAL

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.

Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”

Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT (Monday Night)

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,100)

Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.

2) Derek Carr, OAK at IND

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,100)

Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR at HOU

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at ATL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,900)

Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.

5) Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.

6) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. CIN (Monday Night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 3 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

The NFL DFS Week 3 GPP Picks Of Destiny

5 years ago

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Week 3 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel!Read about it here!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Dak Prescott ($8,400 FD; $6,500 DK)

Dak is my top QB this week. Here is a little trick I used a lot last year. When the Cowboys are playing a bad defense just lock in Dak, Cooper and Zeke and boom, you have their entire offense (especially since Michael Gallup is out). The Cowboys are playing the Dolphins at home and whoooof, Miami is bad. Like, the worst team of a generation bad. The Cowboys are going to destroy them just like the Ravens and the Patriots already have. The Boys are currently 21 point favorites which just doesn’t happen in the NFL. There is NO WAY that Dak fails this week. Lock him in and tweet me when you cash with your lineups.

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,500 FD; $7,000 DK)

Lamar Jackson’s price went down $200 this week on FanDuel for some reason. He is getting his third bad defense in the row in the Kansas City Chiefs. In the first two weeks Jackson has thrown seven touchdowns and ran for 126 yards (120 of them in game two). The Chiefs did not give up much to the Raiders last week, but besides the Dolphins, they probably have the worst offense in the NFL. In Week One the Chiefs got scorched by Gardner Minshew for 275 and two touchdowns in three quarters. Jackson now has a slew of wide receivers to targets and Ingram to help balance the offense on the ground. Jackson has over 30 fantasy points in both games this year, and there is no reason he can’t reach that again this week. Whether the Ravens are in the lead, or playing from behind, Jackson will get his through the air and/or on the ground.

Mid Quarterback: Josh Allen ($7,500 FD; $5,900 DK)

Is everyone finally on my fantasy darling Buffalo Bills QB this year? He gets it done through the air and on the ground and that is what you have to have in a NFL DFS Quarterback. This week is the Bills home opener and this kid is going to show off. Allen’s game logs are almost identical from Week One and Week Two. He has thrown for 250 yards and one touchdown in each game. He has also ran for about 30 yards and a rushing touchdown in each game. The Bills play the Bengals, and their defense is nothing to fear. He is my third favorite NFL DFS QB this week.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady

Notes: I am not on Mahomes as much as Dak and Lamar this week. I will get a few shares, but way more of Dak and Lamar

Quarterback Punts: None: You don’t need to punt this week.

Running Backs

Stud RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 FD; $8,900 DK)

Zeke is going vs. the Miami Dolphins. They gave up 59 points to the Ravens in week one and 43 to the Patriots in Week Two. They have given up two rushing touchdowns in both games. Zeke will get in the end zone and is the clear spend up player in NFL DFS at the RB position this week.

Stud Pivot: Saquon Barkley

Mid RB: Austin Ekeler ($7,600 FD; $7,200 DK)

Ok, he proved it to me. He is a threat on the ground and in the passing game. Are we all getting a good feel for how I play NFL DFS? I like players that can do multiple things. Houston has only given up one rushing touchdown this year, but they have given up three through the air, and Ekeler can catch. This makes him an even better on DraftKings because of the one point PPR structure. Ekeler has over 100 all-purpose yards in both games and four touchdowns. He should be a big part of the Chargers offense again this week.

Mid Pivot: Marlon Mack

Value Running Back: I will update closer to lock, waiting on some news.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Amari Cooper ($7,700 FD, $7,500 DK)

Just play Amari Cooper. Michael Gallup is hurt and they are playing the Dolphins as mentioned above. Cooper has gotten a touchdown in each game this year and he continues the streak this week. No doubt about it. I will be locking in the Cowboys core in my main NFL DFS lineup.

Stud Pivots: Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen

Mid WR: Kenny Golladay ($7,000 FD; $6,600 DK)

He got 10 targets in Week One and nine targets in Week Two. He is Matt Stafford’s number one receiver and he is priced very reasonably at 7K. The Lions play the Eagles this week, who are getting roasted by receivers so far this year. It will be in Philadelphia, and I expect a bounce-back from the Eagles, who just got embarrassed by Julio Jones last week during a nationally televised game on Sunday night. If the Eagles are winning, that is very good for Golladay because Stafford will have to air it out more.

Mid WR Pivots: Adam Thielen, Sammy Watkins

Value WR: Marquise Brown ($6,100 FD; $5,900 DK)

Hollywood Brown is the NFL DFS breakout receiver this season. I wasn’t convinced after he exploded in Week One, but after seeing him get targeted 13 times in Week Two I am hopping on board while he is still cheap. Lamar Jackson is my second favorite QB this week and Hollywood is his favorite receiver. He is fast, like his cousin Antonio, and is ready to become a star. He had 28.7 FanDuel points vs the Dolphins and 12.6 FanDuel points vs the Cardinals in week two (without a touchdown).

WR Value Pivots: Tyler Boyd, DK Metcalf, Will Fuller

Tight End

Stud TE: Mark Andrews ($6,800 FD, $4,600 DK)

He has over 100 yards and a touchdown in each game. He is coming on STRONG this season and gets the poor Kansas City defense. This should be a high scoring game and the Ravens are not going to quit targeting their surprising stud in this one. You can expect close to 10 targets and that’s enough opportunity for any tight end.

Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

Value TE: Greg Olsen ($6,100, $3,700 DK)

The Cardinals are getting torched by tight ends. In Week One they gave up 131 yards and a touchdown to the Lions’ T.J. Hockenson in his first NFL game. In Week Two they gave up 121 and a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Are we noticing a pattern here? I am fine with Cam Newton possibly not starting (update closer to Sunday) because his backup will likely check it down more to Olsen (and McCaffrey). Olsen got 110 yards last week vs. the Bucs and he was a little beat up. I am going to stick with what’s working at tight end, and I expect low ownership.

TE Pivot: O.J. Howard (last shot)

Defense

Cowboys
Patriots
Vikings

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 1 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

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Listen to our DFS Podcast on Week One QB picks below.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500)

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200)

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000)

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600)

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700)

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200)

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400)

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400)

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900)

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700)

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600)

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

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